Micro 870: Lynch Happy

[Vex Vience]

VOTE: elsa jay

lets get the game rolling.

[Vex Vience]

im actually about to post some thoughts i had pre-game nl.

[Vex Vience]

so first things first, everyone should hypo-claim as cop everyday. once the cop dies, we stop it but until then, we hypo-cop. my logic behind that is we can safely get the cop results out there without directly telling everyone who the cop is. even though the cop is very unreliable in this game, we can at least use it to figure out who is good or not since once the cop dies, we know not to lynch anyone the cop checked since they can't be mafia, just vt or lyncher.

the second thing i was getting at with my thoughts is that we shouldnt lynch the lyncher today. unless the lyncher just randomly claims they are the lyncher, i think not lynching them today is much better. mafia is more likely to hit a bp if we leave them alive today. it's a 2/6 v 1/6 if both mafia alive and a 2/7 v 1/7 if one mafia alive. however, if the lyncher outs themselves, we have to lynch them at that point basically. itll mean that any innocents the cop finds is guaranteed to be a townie and it means that a lot of possible outcomes are simplified.

third thing: in i believe all the situations i looked at, if mafia successfully kills n1 and town/lyncher is lynched d1, town always ends up in mylo d2. but speaking of mylo, i believe you always lynch the lyncher claim in mylo. i looked at it, and theoretically mafia could become lynchproof by using that. in mylo, we cant lynch the lyncher otherwise mafia wins. lyncher cant cc it otherwise they lose pretty much everytime. they have to rely on the town randomly voting their target in order to win that situation. therefore the mafia can just get away with a lyncher claim and win the game.

@elsa you do realize that this setup is extremely scumsided btw?

[Vex Vience]

sorry for delay on thoughts, i was debating on including the mylo thing and i didnt fully write out my thoughts beforehand. i thought i had more time to before the game started.

[Vex Vience]

im actually about to post some thoughts i had pre-game nl.

I dunno why this is pinging me but it is

VOTE: Vex Vience

is this vote a serious one or a rvs one?

[Vex Vience]

youre blurring the line with your reasoning.

[Vex Vience]

im actually about to post some thoughts i had pre-game nl.

I dunno why this is pinging me but it is

VOTE: Vex Vience

is this vote a serious one or a rvs one?

It was an rvs-serious vote. As in, it did ping me, but it isn't a strong read.

I'm failing to understand how we hit mylo d2 with a mislynch unless scum hit's the lynch target n1. Help?

5v2v1 > 4v2v1/5v2 > 3v2v1/4v2 (d2)

second one should be obvious, but the first one is a technical mylo. if the mafia shoot the lyncher target n2, they win automatically. (3v2v1 (d2) > 2v2v1 > 1v2 (d3)). the lyncher is endgamed because they cant win, and since theres only one townie left and two mafia, the townie is endgamed. obviously, if they dont shoot the lyncher, we got another day, but both are contingent on the nk.

also, for it pinging you:
i posted thoughts about the game before i got a rolecard in stack the deck. im doing the same exact thing here. if im scum, why would i bother doing this? wouldnt it be easier for scum!me to just let the rvs vote slide and not say i even bothered thinking about anything pre-game?

[Vex Vience]

@elsa you do realize that this setup is extremely scumsided btw?

I have absolutely no idea what you mean. I put balance at the forefront of the list. 40-20-40 seemed balanced me.

mafia win most of the situations i explored. lyncher wins a couple but only if they can convince people to lynch their target, (which is hard to do). town loses pretty much all of them since we reach mylo really quickly and we have to lynch mafia both days, back-to-back. by the time the game goes into a mylo-state, the cop wouldve found one or two innocents, which one of those could be the lyncher.

[Vex Vience]

before i realized i fucked up the numbers somewhere on like the d2 situations which messed up most lyncher situations, i remember seeing mafia winning probably 6/8 endgames i found. town won the last two. i didnt include any possibilities where lyncher won though. too tedious for me.

pedit: ik that but its still a horribly balanced setup. i just wanted to make sure you were aware of that.

[Vex Vience]

i may attempt to redo all the possible endgames in a bit though. if i do figure out all of them, ill post them in a spoiler.

[Vex Vience]

i actually will attempt it sometime. not today though.

[Vex Vience]

nvm actually. im not gonna bother trying to make all possible outcomes anymore. like half of them have technical mylos where if scum kills the lyncher target they win and i dont wanna deal with that. i could just not include them but then i have to figure out which ones have that, and its just a mess.

[Vex Vience]

let me grab the d2 possibilities. i stopped around d3+

[Vex Vience]

Spoiler: possilbities

5v2v1 > 4v2v1 > 3v2v1 (technical mylo)
5v2v1 > 5v2 > 4v2v0 (mylo)
5v2v1 > 5v1v1 > 4v1v1
5v2v1 > 5v1v1 > 5v1v1 (i/h)
5v2v1 > 4v2v1 > 4v2v1 (i/h)
5v2v1 > 5v2v0 > 5v2v0 (i/h)

if we lynch mafia today - no mylo tomorrow
if mafia hit an immune or holster tonight - no mylo tomorrow
if we ml today, and mafia successfully kill - mylo tomorrow

[Vex Vience]

the way how you read that btw is d1 > d1 lynch > d2
i/h is immune/holster as well

[Vex Vience]

oh shit, mb. my math is probably all wrong then regardless. let me recalculate it.

[Vex Vience]

lyncher and lyncher target are bp n1. if mafia hit either, they wont die

[Vex Vience]

yea, nvm. most of the mylos happen d3+. mb on the math.

[Vex Vience]

i thought i had accounted for 9

[Vex Vience]

im assuming jingle is using exactly what the original setup dictated. if thats the case, the lyncher and lyncher target are both bp n1.

Welcome to Lynch Happy!

1 Cop
2 Goons
1 Lyncher (Night 1 Bulletproof)
1 Lyncher Target (Secret Miller, Night 1 Bulletproof)
4 Vanilla Townies

The name of the game? Lynch to your hearts content.

[Vex Vience]

heres the link to the open setup discussion thread.
the rolecards are copied directly from the thread.

[Vex Vience]

i mean, we can move away from it if you want. nobody else has really posted yet so we cant really do a whole lot about making genuine reads though.

[Vex Vience]

@elsa yea, but i think lyncher will only quickhammer if were voting their target. otherwise its not worth it because they get lynched the next day under the suspicion of them being maf.
@urap2 convince me on nl please. i can see you being town, somewhat so on elsa, but not really on nl.

[Vex Vience]

also I skikppepd the setup spec cause it's boring

pedit: oh really? didn't know, I'll go read it

wrong reason for skipping it, but ok

[Vex Vience]

actually, theres no reason for skipping my thought post, but you could skip the setup spec for it being wrong. even then, its only a page, maybe a bit more. so why bother skipping it if its that little amount nmsa?

[Vex Vience]

Hey, the Lyncher doesn't have to be alive to win, just killing a town in general forces Mafia to be seen as the bigger threat.

yea but then lyncher relies on their target playing scummy and us lynching them. not worth it if youre the lyncher imo.

actually, theres no reason for skipping my thought post, but you could skip the setup spec for it being wrong. even then, its only a page, maybe a bit more. so why bother skipping it if its that little amount nmsa?

loads of numbers, I like math but I'm tired and don't want to think about stuff if I don't have to rn. other people can check your work. once we have solid answers, we can strategize from there.

wydm by "solid answers"?

[Vex Vience]

also, nmsa, i said the setup spec was wrong. all my math on it was wrong. you can still read it and get something out of it id assume

[Vex Vience]

VOTE: Vex Vience
Everybody should sheep me on this.

VOTE: Elsa Jay Everybody should sheep Vex on this.

@Vex, I await with bated breath.

so obviously this is the least strong of the reads because only two posts

BUT

"I await with bated breath" is pretty passive aggressive and I think that comes from town more than scum this early in the game

It's like, "yeah, yeah, you're going to do setup spec. That's definitely going to help us solve this game /s"

It feels like someone who is just speaking their mind. like, i'd expect scum to be happy wasting time on setup spec, or to ignore someone who is about to delve into setup spec

I also think early aggression is slightly town indicative, generally

personally, i find his remark nai. to me the whole post feels awkward in general, but its not awkward enough that id call it scummy.
id also disagree on scum ignoring someone doing setup spec. with deadlines like this, id expect town to wanna move away from it asap, but scum want to keep it going instead.

[Vex Vience]

i probably didn't need to quote all of it, but i realized that too late

[Vex Vience]

if you really wanna help me get us out of rvs and start discussing the game, urap, sell me on elsa as well.

[Vex Vience]

what do you mean deadlines like this? we have a week

norm is 14 days. thats what i mean by deadlines like this. if we had a two week deadline, sure, id be a bit more lenient in trying to get the game rolling, but id rather try to get discussing as early as possible since were only on a weeks time.

how the setup spec actually turns out when the math is right

urap posted the correct math, i think. i havent double checked it yet.

[Vex Vience]

After reading again I have no idea why i thought elsa was town

i found 44 townie, but that's only one post. is that the post that made you think elsa was town?

[Vex Vience]

@nl i can explain why i find urap townie in a min if you want
@urap elsas 46 also kinda feels townie, but its a bit of stating the obvious + some faulty logic (imo)

[Vex Vience]

Always good to know the rules in the game too, though I obviously went into the setup knowing it was a rule.

Now, we have people giving a lot of setup spec, so that makes it hard for me to get a genuine read now.

no. I think it's nai for them

if I had to make a case for this post one way or another, I'd say the first line is a lil awkward and unnecessary

i agree that the first line is weird. its not weird enough for me to do anything about it, (much like nl's first two posts). however, the second line is what i find townie of it. i apply my logic of town wants to be active, scum dont to get to that conclusion.

[Vex Vience]

@nl most of my tr on urap isn't based on what theyve said, (most of the stuff theyve posted is relatively null), but its more along the lines of the tone of their posts and activity. most of the setup spec stuff is null for me, but the highlight from that is correcting my math. i dont think scum would bother correcting me if im wrong on that, theyd just let it slide, therefore i find it townie. additionally, what im getting as uraps reads so far feel genuine to me. additionally, uraps activity feels like theyre actually trying to be productive in the game and help out, namely 58, 63, 69 feel the most helpful to me.

[Vex Vience]

also, i just noticed it when i read back uraps iso, but, what do you have against hypoclaiming urap, if you dont mind me asking?

[Vex Vience]

my major thing is when it comes to hypoing results, you never state the day before who youre checking. at the start of the day, you post a random player with a random result. if youre the cop, you post the real thing. sure, if scum does die and someone hypo-inno'd them, we know they're not the cop, but thatd be only one player who cant be cop from mafias perspective. like i said in my pre-game thought post, we really only care about green results from the cop. the cop is unreliable on getting mafia results in this game, therefore wed only care about what appears to be green.

while yes, the lyncher could slip through because of this, the lyncher would be forced to play as a vt if they get a green result. if they try to push their target and its obvious, we know who the lyncher is and their target, therefore the red results become useful once again, and the lyncher automatically loses the game since we wont ever lynch that player. now the lyncher could just do something and fake a target then switch to the real player, but if it gets to that point, we just ignore whatever the lyncher does.

this gets into setup spec again, but i feel like for us to have the greatest chance of winning in the first place, we need to have the cop claim without directly stating theyre the cop, because mafia will always shoot them the next night i feel like. if everyone claims a random result on a random player, (with cop subbing their actual results), scum shouldnt be able to pick them out from that alone. like i said before, the cop is unreliable on picking out mafia, we really only care about getting green results from them.

[Vex Vience]

im using data, so ill make this post quick.

Vex why u ruining RVS with maths and stuff? I don't like math

im trying to get us out of rvs. i dont wanna stay in rvs due to the fact we have a week deadline to lynch. please read my posts before saying this. i explained it elsewhere.

Vex's opening posts are actually all talk about setup and actions, and most of it is wrong. Vex you seem so unwilling to get into a good ol' RVS, why is that?

like i said, i wanna get out of rvs. i realized it was wrong after urap said it was. its a simple math error. i also dont wanna stay in rvs for very long just so we can maximize our discussion time.

I haven't played with many of you, I don't see how it's town.

Avoiding RVS and focusing on spec is ez way for scum to survive RVS. Why are you townreading him?

please read stack the deck, the only other game i actually played in on this account. i opened that game the exact same way, albeit with correct math, and i was vt. please explain what makes this game different.

Vex's opening posts are actually all talk about setup and actions, and most of it is wrong. Vex you seem so unwilling to get into a good ol' RVS, why is that?

found the lyncher :^)

id honestly agree on this. see bottom for reasoning.

Vex's opening posts are actually all talk about setup and actions, and most of it is wrong. Vex you seem so unwilling to get into a good ol' RVS, why is that?

found the lyncher :^)

Elsa's probably the lyncher, actually

why do you think elsa is lyncher?

It was not passive aggressive and I do not believe I have been aggressive at all. Why are you townreading me for this?

Really? You were actually waiting with bated breath for setup spec?

Yes, I was excited for this setup speculation. Specifically from Vex Vience.

Vex's opening posts are actually all talk about setup and actions, and most of it is wrong. Vex you seem so unwilling to get into a good ol' RVS, why is that?

Vex is town. Please find somewhere else to focus.

Vex provided faulty setup spec and math… this is town?

once again, look at stack the deck. i did the same exact thing as vt in this game. if im scum, why would i do it again? i only did it on this account to distance myself from my main. if i was scum here and someone asked me why i didnt do it, i could just easily say that i did it to distance myself from my main. since my alt is public knowledge, whats the point of that?

VOTE: Vex Vience
Everybody should sheep me on this.

VOTE: Elsa Jay Everybody should sheep Vex on this.

@Vex, I await with bated breath.

so obviously this is the least strong of the reads because only two posts

BUT

"I await with bated breath" is pretty passive aggressive and I think that comes from town more than scum this early in the game

It's like, "yeah, yeah, you're going to do setup spec. That's definitely going to help us solve this game /s"

It feels like someone who is just speaking their mind. like, i'd expect scum to be happy wasting time on setup spec, or to ignore someone who is about to delve into setup spec

I also think early aggression is slightly town indicative, generally

personally, i find his remark nai. to me the whole post feels awkward in general, but its not awkward enough that id call it scummy.
id also disagree on scum ignoring someone doing setup spec. with deadlines like this, id expect town to wanna move away from it asap, but scum want to keep it going instead.

if you really wanna help me get us out of rvs and start discussing the game, urap, sell me on elsa as well.

Hedging and wifom, wants to get out of RVS but opens with setup spec…
Vex is scum and I I'll fight anyone over this read

ico is lyncher with target on me, i guarantee it. ill actually explain why, although, it wont be the full case until im not using data. consider this the tl;dr.
my major problem with this is that ico came into this game and instantly started to accuse me. literally no hesitation on that. to me that means he is most likely the lyncher with target on me. he could be confused town and pushing on me for that, but that is something i dont really think is possible. i also dont believe that hes mafia because if he was, why would he bother going through that when he could just shoot me tonight?
but also if you look at his iso: posts 86, 87, 94, 108, 109 are all talking about me. the only posts that dont? 90 (fluff post), 99 (calling elsa lyncher), 102 (joke reply). ico has an agenda to lynch me, making me his target.

ill make a full case and reply to his posts and go more in-depth on other things in about 7hrs when i get home from school for the day. i dont wanna use data if i dont have to.

[Vex Vience]

heres my entire iso from stack the deck btw.

[Vex Vience]

actually nvm. using the power of google translate i have access to ms once again. give me a bit to fully explain all my thoughts.

[Vex Vience]

It was not passive aggressive and I do not believe I have been aggressive at all. Why are you townreading me for this?

Really? You were actually waiting with bated breath for setup spec?

Yes, I was excited for this setup speculation. Specifically from Vex Vience.

so, what are your thoughts on that then? care to share?

Oh great, I love waking up to 4 or so pages of math
VOTE: NMSA don't do illegal kids

ego

any thoughts on the game so far from either of you?

[Vex Vience]

alright, let me case ico then ill be good.

[Vex Vience]

nvm, google translate stopped working. ill work on it outside of the site then post it when i get done.

[Vex Vience]

Spoiler: ico case

Vex why u ruining RVS with maths and stuff? I don't like math

so this post doesnt feel townie at all. i didnt post this thought at all, (i thought i did), but one of the major things is that i think is town wants to get out of rvs early and scum want to stay in rvs. this feels like a weak attempt at pushing me after trying to get us into discussing the game early on. the other thing is that rvs doesnt really help contribute

that

much to the gamestate as a whole. sure it allows early pressure but the game can quickly stall out in rvs.

the second sentence from ico also feels out of place. ok, you dont like math? so what? why should i care? it feels like a post being made just to say something else so the "why are you ruining rvs" sentence makes more sense. either way, they dont feel like a post a townie would make in general.

Vex's opening posts are actually all talk about setup and actions, and most of it is wrong. Vex you seem so unwilling to get into a good ol' RVS, why is that?

the first sentence of this post is decent, ig. to me, it feels more like an attempt at trying to look productive by stating the obvious, but, for me it comes off as weird. he acknowledges that its wrong but doesnt bother stating where. why would that be? it feels like hes trying to state it to make his post feel more townie than it really is.

the second sentence of this post is literally a rephrasing of 86 and isnt productive/helpful at all. "why are you trying to ruining, [trying to get out of], rvs" and "why are you unwilling to get into rvs" are the same exact question, just phrased differently. it makes his post feel like hes trying to be productive and figure out why i started with setup spec, but not actually putting forth any effort into it. the other thing with it is that ico called out only me and not urap who went along with it. why would that be unless hes lyncher and im their target?

I haven't played with many of you, I don't see how it's town.

Avoiding RVS and focusing on spec is ez way for scum to survive RVS. Why are you townreading him?

the first sentence doesnt make sense to me at all. how does playing with any of us mean that my setup spec is townie or not? it feels off to me, and doesnt really make sense. it leads into the second sentence of him calling me scum for avoiding rvs and focusing on setup spec to survive rvs, but that doesnt literally make any sense for me. im playing under alt. ive proven under this alt that im much more serious and focused on the game. why would i be concerned about surviving rvs under the alt? under main, sure, we could argue that, but under vex?

the second thing about it is that hes answering his own question raised by 86 and 87. hes saying that the reason why im unwilling to get into rvs and ruin it, (according to ico), is because im scum. which, that makes sense if hes lyncher trying to push on me. i will keep hammering this point that ico is lyncher and im their target as well, because i dont see any alternatives apart from that.

Vex's opening posts are actually all talk about setup and actions, and most of it is wrong. Vex you seem so unwilling to get into a good ol' RVS, why is that?

found the lyncher :^)

Elsa's probably the lyncher, actually

i dont like how this post feels actually. ive already stated numerous times that i believe ico is lyncher and im their target, so this post feels really out of place for me and a cheap attempt at deflecting suspicion from themselves onto elsa, (who jokingly claimed lyncher earlier). however, in interest of seeing why ico thinks that,

@ico, care to explain why?

It was not passive aggressive and I do not believe I have been aggressive at all. Why are you townreading me for this?

Really? You were actually waiting with bated breath for setup spec?

Yes, I was excited for this setup speculation. Specifically from Vex Vience.

Vex's opening posts are actually all talk about setup and actions, and most of it is wrong. Vex you seem so unwilling to get into a good ol' RVS, why is that?

Vex is town. Please find somewhere else to focus.

Vex provided faulty setup spec and math… this is town?

this is something that isnt rephrased but it still feels weird to me. i did post things other than setup spec which is readable. yet ico doesnt seem really concerned with any of those posts, just my setup spec ones and attempts at getting us out of rvs to start discussing the game. my thought on this is that ico saw the setup spec as an easy push for me and then when it failed he tried to feign confusion.

VOTE: Vex Vience
Everybody should sheep me on this.

VOTE: Elsa Jay Everybody should sheep Vex on this.

@Vex, I await with bated breath.

so obviously this is the least strong of the reads because only two posts

BUT

"I await with bated breath" is pretty passive aggressive and I think that comes from town more than scum this early in the game

It's like, "yeah, yeah, you're going to do setup spec. That's definitely going to help us solve this game /s"

It feels like someone who is just speaking their mind. like, i'd expect scum to be happy wasting time on setup spec, or to ignore someone who is about to delve into setup spec

I also think early aggression is slightly town indicative, generally

personally, i find his remark nai. to me the whole post feels awkward in general, but its not awkward enough that id call it scummy.
id also disagree on scum ignoring someone doing setup spec. with deadlines like this, id expect town to wanna move away from it asap, but scum want to keep it going instead.

if you really wanna help me get us out of rvs and start discussing the game, urap, sell me on elsa as well.

Hedging and wifom, wants to get out of RVS but opens with setup spec…
Vex is scum and I I'll fight anyone over this read

the hedging and wifom are also different, but it feels like really weak attempts at trying to make it seem like he knows

exactly

what hes talking about without really putting forth the effort of trying. the rvs thing ive gone over many times now, but the open setup spec really gets me the most. the setup has never been ran before now. weve never seen it played. ofc id wanna discuss speculation for it. however, the other thing is in stack the deck

i did the same exact thing at the very beginning

and ill bring it up once again:

if im scum here, why did i go into setup spec once again? wouldnt it be easier for me to ignore it and move on, or stall the game in rvs, like ive stated i believe scum would want to do? ive only done it once under vex and that was to distance myself from my main. ive never done it again under my main. so why would i do it once again? please explain that bit.

over all, i really think ico is the lyncher, and i think hes currently the best vote target. his iso has focused solely on me and really nobody else. hes made a few replies to the others, but overall his iso is scummy and suggests he has an agenda to lynch me. thats really why i wanna lynch him. ik i said before i dont wanna lynch the lyncher d1 if possible, however, im basically taking ico's iso as him claiming hes lyncher without actually directly saying hes lyncher. if nothing else major happens/changes, id like to lynch him. for now however, i wanna use the rest of the day to discuss and see what else we can do before calling it a day.

VOTE: ico

[Vex Vience]

oh, nm. Ico is right

VOTE: vex

explain your vote and how ico is right. i literally dont see how he is right about me being scum, even when i try to look at it from his pov

[Vex Vience]

read stack the deck. i quoted my own meta several times in that game. i played exactly how i am now. and also, you are saying that one single post from me is singlehandedly scummier than icos iso, which only is targeting me. please explain that logic now.

[Vex Vience]

clearly you didnt read my case then. most of the argument is that ico is solely targeting me. he claimed im trying to avoid rvs by trying to use setup spec because im trying to survive rvs or something. he rephrases/repeats stuff and doesnt do anything productive apart from trying to push on me.

you are openly admitting that the lyncher has a case. please understand that. once you fully read my case against ico, then by all means, make your own opinion.

[Vex Vience]

then how the fuck are you getting ico being right with me being scum?

[Vex Vience]

well both of you are wrong then. simple as that.

[Vex Vience]

i think you and ico are mafia together. ico got caught, so youre jumping in to defend him.

[Vex Vience]

ill explain my logic behind that in a little while.

[Vex Vience]

so, urap is scum here imo. they will always flip scum, never town imo. not only did they do an entire 180 on their read of me after i posted the case against ico, they ignored all of it and decided to attack two points and call those two points scummy versus the six or seven other points i raised. that is not a townie thing to do, esp on top of claiming they have read

every single word of my argument

. on top of that, uraps read on me—and its reasoning—is absolutely shit.

tbh outside of his first math is bad post i don't think he's scummy

It's not that I don't like you quoting meta, but it's not a good faith argument to say that posting setup spec makes you town because you've done it as town. like, damn, talk about the easiest part of a self meta to fake lol

and any reasonable person would realize that they could do setup spec, so the argument is simply in bad faith

you're scum

heres my entire case against urap, based on their quote as well. their first sentence makes no goddamn sense whatsoever when you look at ico's iso. he has pushed me in basically all of his iso apart from a few useless posts. that is scummy af to call someone

in a lyncher game who is obviously pushing to get me lynched not scum

.

the second sentence overlooks my entire argument for me doing it. ive only done it once. theres no reason for me to do it. why would scum!me go through all that effort to mimic something that i did in stack the deck to distance myself from my main? wouldnt it be easier for me to not do it in the first place? and the answer to that is yes. it would be much easier for me to not do any of that and just move on with the game. id wanna stall it out in rvs.

the entire argument from urap is very weak. while i dont think urap is lyncher, i am certain they are mafia in this game. now that leads me into another thought that ill entertain tonight and try to figure out reasoning for why, but i believe {ico, urap} is a valid scum team here.

------

@urap, im putting this on you now. give me and everyone else your reasoning why you decided to ignore the rest of my argument, have a complete 180 turn-around on your read of me and call me scummy based on two points. also, id like you to point out exactly what i have said that is "scum who thinks they've been caught for a bad reason", and explain how you read my argument yet didnt understand the argument i brought up of it being easier for scum!me to not post setup spec since i did it once under vex to distance myself. why would i do it here once again if theres no reason for me to as town?

on top of all of this, id like to know everyones thoughts on my case against ico and on uraps 180 turn-around in their read on me.

[Vex Vience]

also, i should never be brought down to l-1, only l-2 unless we have a coordinated time for hammer. im 100% certain i am lynchers target and if we bring me down to l-1, i will be quickhammered by ico.

[Vex Vience]

Wait wait wait... Vex. How the heck did Ico become the "Lyncher"? You sound more like it with how much shade your throwing at him first. A Lyncher accusing someone of being their Lyncher to get them lynched? A valid strategy.

if thats the case, why did ico come into this game and start pushing on me as hard as he did?

[Vex Vience]

also, i would like to reiterate this: i replied to all of icos post

after

he had thrown shade onto me first.

[Vex Vience]

also, if you look at his iso, 7-8 of his 10 posts are targeted at me. he replies to nobody else but me in all of his posts. isnt that a bit odd?

[Vex Vience]

5/8 of his posts, mb

[Vex Vience]

the other three posts arent even productive, might i add.

[Vex Vience]

he could be mafia for all i know. i think lyncher is more likely though. ive said this before and ill say it again: if we lynch him and he flips lyncher, it basically confirms me as his target. if we lynch him and he flips mafia, it basically confirms me as not mafia. the reasoning behind that is even though im confident in my mafia play, whats the point of me bussing my scumbuddy d1 in a setup where even if i play perfectly as mafia, i can still randomly lose due to a miller lynch?

[Vex Vience]

and if somehow ico flips town, we need to slow the fuck down tomorrow and reevaluate everything. im pretty sure id be the lynch tomorrow if hes cop/vt as well because im the one pushing for him so hard.

[Vex Vience]

also, unrelated but something i wanna ask for:

@mod, may we get a reduction in the prod-timer from 48hrs to 36hrs? 48hrs feels really long for a 7 day deadline

[Vex Vience]

wrong ico. if you actually read my posts, youd know im scumreading you for solely interacting with me in your iso. you only interacted with others to joke with them.
im scumreading urap for being so eager to jump to your defense, making a complete 180 in their read of me based off of two points in my 7-8 point argument against you, plus other reasons.

ill reply to other things in a moment, just got up and getting food

[Vex Vience]

guess scam and lacher in no lunch Elsa and Datisi

why these two players specifically? why not any of the other players who havent really talked or contributed in the meanwhile?

Ico's intro is NAI, I feel his contributions are more genuine town than faking activity as scam

Daitisi's intro is forced, her second post is bland/passive

care to explain why her intro is forced? im not seeing it

Feeling this Vex!Urap!Ico interaction is TvT from vibe and with other not commenting or starting new topics, probably scam is just floating along watching teh TvT

i had the idea that scum was just lingering somewhere and watching. if thats the case, its either tvt or tvl (town v lyncher)

VOTE: Elsa Jay Everybody should sheep Vex on this.

@Vex, I await with bated breath.

I'm feeling personally attacked RN.

feels SvS

how exactly does this feel svs? this just feels more like rvs banter.

wait why are we voting no lunch

agreed. also, do you have any thoughts on the game so far?

why not vote no lunch

who else scam

this feels a bit too eager for my liking. and also, ive outlined that i believe ico is scum and that i believe urap is scum, yet you decide on nl who is one of the townier players in this game, imo? whats your logic on that?

the vague no lunch wagon confuses me
like it seems just a little too eager

agreed with clem on this.

[Vex Vience]

also, nl is town. ill post a full readlist in a few.

[Vex Vience]

{vex}

{nl}

{pvt}

{elsa, clem, nmsa, datisi}

- null

{urap, ico}

{}

{}

nl feels townie to me. their posting is relaxed, seems natural.
pvt feels natural and seems townie. just confused on eagerness of wanting to wagon nl
elsa, clem, nmsa, datisi havent posted anything i can get a read on
urap is scummy due to the number of reasons ive posted before
ico is scummy for the number of reasons ive posted before, however, after a re-read, its less scummy to me.

[Vex Vience]

@clem id imagine youd be able to make a read on several players, (namely me, urap and possibly ico). do you have any reads on them so far, and if so, what are they?
@elsa please answer my previous questions, and post your thoughts on the game so far.
@nsma do you have any other thoughts than me being possibly lyncher?

[Vex Vience]

im busy today, (bf coming over), but i did quickly skim the thread and pvt is town imo.
ill explain more when i have some time to.

[Vex Vience]

@austerity any thoughts on the game so far?
@nl do you have any other thoughts on pvt's case against you apart from them being town?

@mod you have two votes recorded on me when only nmsa is voting me. should be one vote.

Jingle ~Fixed.

[Vex Vience]

ill also reply to what pvt said earlier in a few, if not, ill get up early tomorrow, (like 5am cst), and reply

[Vex Vience]

how quickly could you read the thread and post some thoughts?

[Vex Vience]

Spoiler: reply to pvt

guess scam and lacher in no lunch Elsa and Datisi

why these two players specifically? why not any of the other players who havent really talked or contributed in the meanwhile?

They're the scumreads at the time. My readlist goes;
{urap, ico, vex} town
{clem, nmsa} null
{datisi} lacher
{elsa, nl} scam

I don't believe my townreads are off, or atleast it shouldn't be as simple as urap!ico scamteam.

i dont think that {urap, ico} are the scumteam anymore. upon re-read of urap theyre townier imo, but im still a bit skeptical of them in general. ico im still really skeptical of, and id like more content from them before i really budge on my read of them. i just dont really like how they focused only on me in the very beginning.

NMSA is completely null.

nmsa is completely null for you? i have him as a scumread atm solely because of his iso. very low post count, barely anything readable, (182, 189 were the only ones that i really could get a read on), and just general activity/presence in the thread make me suspicious of him.

Lacher because PoE Elsa!nl scamteam theory.
Elsa!nl is scummy, will explain.

did you ever explain this or am i blind?

Ico's intro is NAI, I feel his contributions are more genuine town than faking activity as scam

Daitisi's intro is forced, her second post is bland/passive

care to explain why her intro is forced? im not seeing it

By intuition. Could be wrong, but I felt the post pinged a bit weirdly so mentioned it.

i ended up re-reading it several times now and the post just feels null for me. it just feels like a joke way to enter into the thread. im not gonna disagree with you on it, but i wont agree either.

VOTE: Elsa Jay Everybody should sheep Vex on this.

@Vex, I await with bated breath.

I'm feeling personally attacked RN.

feels SvS

how exactly does this feel svs? this just feels more like rvs banter.

Nothing solid. Just that 1) I scumread both players, and 2) "I'm feeling personally attacked RN" feels like responding to a fellow scammer rather than banter.

care to go more in-depth on how you are getting that? im not really seeing it still.

why not vote no lunch

who else scam

this feels a bit too eager for my liking. and also, ive outlined that i believe ico is scum and that i believe urap is scum, yet you decide on nl who is one of the townier players in this game, imo? whats your logic on that?

Ico!urap is townread. nl is scamread. Perhaps we could look into eachother's perspectives.

wdym by look into each others perspective?

i was gonna reply to the other quotes from you pvt, but i need to actually do other things like eat dinner.

pedit:
could you do that now please and ty aust? id appreciate it.

ppedit:
yes, the lyncher target is a secret miller. if you got a vt rolecard, you could be the lyncher target. said so in the role pm.

[Vex Vience]

it was a part of the original setup notes. elsa jay, (the creator), has already stated that the rolecards being worded poorly/lacking information is their fault

[Vex Vience]

are you asking for my main? if so, click here for it

[Vex Vience]

fair warning though, i havent played mafia in a long while and my last major game was stuff i found online v.
if you want me to as well, i can link you to a bunch of previous games where i actually played decently in.

[Vex Vience]

i lurk mostly. im in another game under korina and planning on modding one. irl has been a bitch though.
as for faking extreme confidence on someone as scum? no. i dont really think im the type to do that, esp in a new setup like this, under an alt that i play differently than my main under. i would probably do it under korina, but not under vex.

[Vex Vience]

the reason why im uncertain in that as well is because i play differently under vex than korina, and the last time i played mafia in general was a couple of irl games a month ago. i rolled scum twice and played radically differently both times so i cant really tell if i would or wouldnt

[Vex Vience]

i will have to reply tomorrow to stuff. i ran out of adhd medicine and while i can focus, i really dont wanna type replies. i blame my adhd for that. my last readlist was sometime yesterday @pvt:

{vex}

{nl, pvt}

{}

{clem, elsa, datisi/aus}

- null

{urap, ico}

{nsma}

{}

nsma is so low due to them having basically nothing readable in four days of playing. id have to re-read the game to update it.

[Vex Vience]

i will have to reply tomorrow to stuff. i ran out of adhd medicine and while i can focus, i really dont wanna type replies. i blame my adhd for that. my last readlist was sometime yesterday @pvt:

{vex}

{nl, pvt}

{}

{clem, elsa, datisi/aus}

- null

{urap, ico}

{nsma}

{}

nsma is so low due to them having basically nothing readable in four days of playing. id have to re-read the game to update it.

Oh yay, I'm in this situation again. Anybody who wants to, throw questions at me and I'll answer them.

thoughts on the entire game? readlist? who do you think is town/mafia/lyncher and why?

[Vex Vience]

im about to re-read what i missed yesterday

[Vex Vience]

plz giv readlist nl

It should already be obvious through reading my posts in isolation what my reads are.

ok, but why arent you providing them in the first place? you should be able to, no? saying "just look at my iso" makes it seem like you're trying to waste time.

Additionally, I am starting to suspect that I am the lyncher target. Either that,

or I am appearing substantially more scummy than I intend to

. But the only forthcoming case has been PvtUrist's, which was far closer to a list of grievances than a consideration of how I am approaching this game as a member of the mafia.

re:bolded - why tf would you wanna appear scummy to begin with nl? i dont see any benefit to townies, (unless youre the cop), to appearing scummy in the first place. the only way itd make sense is if youre the cop and you dont wanna get nk'd, but even then, youre such a low-profile target imo that mafia would be stupid to shoot you.

so why purposefully look scummy?

Aight, I tr Clem now.

im not questioning the read, but rather how you got there. care to explain?

[Vex Vience]

im also gonna re-iso everyone and re-evaluate my readlist.

[Vex Vience]

Spoiler: current readlist

{vex}

{pvt}

{ico, urap}

{clem, aust}

- null

{nl, nmsa}

{elsa}

{}

aust feels somewhat townie, mostly based on playstyle alone, but im kinda getting pings from a few of their posts in general. both kinda cancel out so theyre still a null.
clem hasnt really posted a whole lot, but the few serious posts theyve made actually feel townie imo. just need more content before i really start to tr them. not really a scumread on them either since they have put forth effort sporadically.
elsa hasnt really posted anything helpful. most of their iso is just them fucking around. i dont really like it, and it feels scummy to me.
ico is actually somewhat townie imo, upon my re-iso. most of their later posts make up for their earlier posts. still somewhat suspicious of them, but not overtly.
nl has slipped for me in my reads. they were townie, but some of their later posts just feel downright scummy. like them wanting to have us interpret their reads, just randomly voting, etc. it doesnt sit well with me.
bit less skeptical of nmsa, but still generally suspicious of them. waiting on their thoughts in general on the game, plus other things.
pvt is locktown imo. i really dont need to go into details on this, i hope.
urap is more townie now imo. most of my scumread goes away after i re-read their iso once again. generally liking their posts once again.
vex is totally a cult leader, idk why you guys havent lynched him yet.

i dont really have a lot of time atm, i gotta do a few things today, but this is where im at after quickly re-reading the thread and re-isoing everyone.
i think nmsa is possibly a townie, but im not certain. if they are a townie, i think the other scum is in my nulls or is urap/ico.
im also fine with a nl lynch today.

[Vex Vience]

why is urap higher than pvt, if you dont mind me asking? nothing major, just wondering.

[Vex Vience]

because as scum you have to pay attention to a lot of things when making readlists, esp your partners.

if your partner is acting scummy, do you call them out for it and possibly bus them or do you call them null for it and hope nobody calls you out on it?
if not, are you associating yourself with your partner too much? if you or they get lynched, how likely is it that everyone else puts it together youre on the same team based on your readslist?
not only that, but how are you gonna call out people as scum in your readlist? if youre gonna call out the easy targets, you run the risk of looking like youre just sheeping and have it backfire because of that. if you call out the hard targets, you have to actually make a case which can backfire horribly.
also, you have to make your readlist look like you put forth actual effort into it. too little effort and it seems like you didnt try. too much effort and it seems like youre faking a townie thought process.

[Vex Vience]

aust, why are you defending nl rn? care to explain?

[Vex Vience]

also do you have a readlist youd like to post?

[Vex Vience]

also also, aust, are you an alt? if so, mind sharing who you really are?

[Vex Vience]

ok, but why arent you providing them in the first place? you should be able to, no? saying "just look at my iso" makes it seem like you're trying to waste time.

Counterpoint: being defiant when asked to do something easy is a towntell.

countercounterpoint: look at nls iso. its not really obvious what his reads are. this is the best i could figure out:

{vex, pvt} - town
{elsa, nmsa} - null/not mentioned
{ico, urap, clem, aust} - scum

why should i have to read through his iso to get his reads when he should be able to tell me roughly without looking at the game how he feels about everyone?

[Vex Vience]

and also, id like to mention that these reads feel extremely safe. it feels like he doesnt wanna dedicate to anything extreme and just wants to stick with the safe reads. thats not a townie thing to do imo because i think town is more likely to take a more extreme stance than scum.

[Vex Vience]

you only have one scumread? whys that?

[Vex Vience]

also, whos a higher tr for you? ico or nl?

[Vex Vience]

because as scum you have to pay attention to a lot of things when making readlists, esp your partners.

if your partner is acting scummy, do you call them out for it and possibly bus them or do you call them null for it and hope nobody calls you out on it?
if not, are you associating yourself with your partner too much? if you or they get lynched, how likely is it that everyone else puts it together youre on the same team based on your readslist?
not only that, but how are you gonna call out people as scum in your readlist? if youre gonna call out the easy targets, you run the risk of looking like youre just sheeping and have it backfire because of that. if you call out the hard targets, you have to actually make a case which can backfire horribly.

Yeah but like, this is assuming that the scum player has put zero effort into faking reads thus far and has to do all the work the night before the assignment is due. Scum players will have already made a lot of these decisions by the time they're asked to give a readlist.

actually? no. even if youre basing it off the old one, you still have to show that your reads are changing, which means the above section always comes back. lets say im scum here, alright? when i go to fake my readlist, i have to rely on that over and over. yes i can make a no-effort readlist, but how would that help me? itd make me look more suspicious if im posting that low-effort readlist over and over. if i wanna get tr'd and avoid the lynch, id have to put some effort into it. even if im making a new one, the list always comes back.

also, you have to make your readlist look like you put forth actual effort into it. too little effort and it seems like you didnt try. too much effort and it seems like youre faking a townie thought process.

This is equally true for town, though. Town give low effort readlists all the time (see: me copying my previous post and adding one name).

i dont see the point of your counterargument on that. yes, obviously town does it too. but they do it less frequently than scum would. no?

[Vex Vience]

you only have one scumread? whys that?

Because forming good scumreads D1 is hard for all but a select few people. And while post people solve this problem by forming BAD scumreads, I solve it in a different way

you have to lynch someone rn. who and why?

also, whos a higher tr for you? ico or nl?

They're approximately the same.

you defending nl tells me that nl is a higher tr for you. why would you say theyre both the same then?

[Vex Vience]

real quick: nl, do you have a scum-game?
urap, can you re-link me your town games, but also link some scum games?

even though i hate meta, i really wanna meta these two. i have the tinfoil thought of urap v nl being tvt and i really wanna try to figure it out.

[Vex Vience]

do you have a non-hydra one? i hate trying to meta based on hydra games.

[Vex Vience]

alright. i did read nl's iso of his town games, (coalition and forkbomb), and the first thing that struck me was the difference in posting from those games to this one. which makes me feel very weird about nl and how hes playing in this game. he seemed much more active and willing to make longer posts in those games, versus this one. which, i find very odd to say the least. i need to sift through uraps, but i really dont trust nl based on that alone.

pedit: ty urap. ill get to it in a moment. gonna make popcorn and then read them.

[Vex Vience]

yes i know. it was the other day. but it still doesnt really excuse the difference i spotted.

[Vex Vience]

because if were comparing the game to today, your town meta should be consistent between the two. im not really finding the two as consistent. in forkbomb, i find most of your posts to not be pinging me, yet reading it here, you are pinging me. not only that, but there are a few general differences. you tend to be interacting with everyone or trying to get them to reply to your reads. here youre just... not doing any of that.

it doesnt sit well with me is the point. you should be able to act similarly between those two games since they did overlap in dates. yet im not really seeing that.

[Vex Vience]

i read uraps scum games and a town game. urap feels very aggressive in the town game, and less aggressive (mostly passive) in the scum games. when i read this game, im getting urap being aggressive. their flipflop voting i dont really get, but, they feel townie to me ultimately.
if you are town nl, im sorry, but this just doesnt feel the same as your town games.

[Vex Vience]

it really doesnt

[Vex Vience]

the major difference i noticed that bugs me the most is exactly

how

you played. you called out things. you asked people a lot of questions about their thoughts. in this game though, i dont really see that. sure, with divided attention, that could change things, but you still should be able to mimic that as town in both games. and thats whats bugging me the most: the fact that you arent. your posting feels different to me in that game and this game, and it just bugs me.

[Vex Vience]

much more direct. youre not asking as many questions as id expect town!you to be and thats bothering me. youre just kinda existing in this game, kinda stalling for time a bit. which, that leads into this weird tinfoil thought i just had: what if we dont lynch nl today? we lynch someone else and cop checks nl? if red, we hang them instantly, no questions asked and if green, theyre confirmed townie, and wed have four or five confirmed townies, (me, urap, pvt, nl, cop), assuming none of us die tonight?

im not really seeing a universe where nl is a lyncher target either.

[Vex Vience]

which, another thought about your playstyle in this game, nl: you feel a bit more survivalistic and unwilling to help. post 266 really highlights that point for me. youre not willing to give out a read. you say a perfectly townie post, (uraps 262), is more likely to come from scum than town, (which i disagree with), on top of many other things. it just feels like youre playing entirely different in this game versus forkbomb for example.

[Vex Vience]

because if youre the lynchers target, why havent they tried to lynch you here and now? sure, urap could be the lyncher, but if they are, gg. they deserve the win. as for this setup, with 9 people, if we go into d2 with 7 alive and four to five confirmed, we know exactly who the evils are from that point on if we have two townies die. the other three who arent confirmed? theyre the scum. always.

pedit: that post from urap was my exact thoughts. if youre town, why arent you helping your fellow teammates? why are you making it harder on them?

[Vex Vience]

lets also get to that: what are your thoughts on aust defending you?

pedit: i posted a readlist yesterday that i hadnt even edited for an entire day because i didnt read the thread. i dont think anyone wouldve really cared if you did. as long as you prefaced it with that, i dont think anyone would care.

[Vex Vience]

also, if im the lyncher, why am i trying to sort you? we have little under 48 hours left of the day. why dont i just vote you and lurk out of the game now? i wont get prodded.

[Vex Vience]

what benefit do i get from trying to actively sort you rn? sure, i could get an easier time lynching you, but if i can take the path of least resistance here, and not bother pushing you and letting you be lynched due to plurality, why dont i bother doing that?

[Vex Vience]

i think youre the lyncher, not mafia. however, if i had to call out someone as your scumbuddy? aust. 100%.

[Vex Vience]

and i think the mafia are within the lurkers. thats why there hasnt been much going on from that. i really doubt someone like elsa is town in this game. if they are, they are doing absolutely nothing to help the town, and they are basically no better than mafia.

[Vex Vience]

because i went back and re-evaluated your posts. they felt townie on the surface, but scummy deeper down. thats why im scumreading you.
also nice to know youre just lurking elsa.

[Vex Vience]

heres my thing: if we lynch one of you, we can pretty much guarantee the others alignment. both of your reads are really similar and aust defended you. if you flip mafia, we lynch aust tomorrow and thats the game. otherwise, we go from there.

pedit: what you just posted. you trying not to appear townie is scummy in of itself imo. why wouldnt you wanna ever appear townie? even if youre evil, you still wanna appear to be good. regardless of your alignment, that makes you a detriment to whatever team youre on. and if youre town, youre hurting me. youre hurting the town. youre helping the mafia and the lyncher. therefore, why wouldnt i want to lynch you? regardless, its a positive for the town.

[Vex Vience]

to put it exactly how my old irl mafia group would put it: if youre a townie, and youre not trying to help the town, youre actually a mafia traitor—the mod just fucked up and dealt you the wrong card.

[Vex Vience]

im saying your posts on the surface appear townie. when i look more closely at them, theyre scummy. idk if thats on purpose or not, but regardless, its something that doesnt really benefit town. not only that, but the differences ive seen in your meta between these games feels much more different than what i expect.

im also tired and going to bed. i think youre scum, and i would rather have your lynch today so we can basically confirm aust without having the cop check them.

[Vex Vience]

Intent to hammer

seconded. nl, please claim now. once we have the claim, im willing to hammer. we have little over a day left.

Please refrain from hammering pending an answer to this.
Vex, what is your level of confidence in u r a person 2 being town?
How much of the Draco Lucky scumgame did you read?

im pretty confident in urap being town. i also read most of the draco scumgame, and its a different playstyle here than there. they arent scum. you also arent getting off the stand today unless youre cop, which i doubt. with your lynch, we confirm urap and basically confirm aust.

[Vex Vience]

also, if nl is scum, i think we always lynch aust tomorrow.

[Vex Vience]

VOTE: urap2

At the very least, we need a counterwagon to nl. I think this flailing is not scum nine times out of ten, at least. I'm less confident in saying nl isn't the lyncher but trying to hit lyncher D1 over scum is really dumb.

were not lynching nl because we think theyre the lyncher lol. were lynching them because theyre playing scummy and we think theyre not town. doesnt matter if theyre lyncher or not, were lynching them because we dont think theyre town-aligned

[Vex Vience]

then you die.

[Vex Vience]

simple as that. either you claim now and i dont hammer you right this very second or you dont and you die this very second

[Vex Vience]

your choice

[Vex Vience]

(for anyone wondering why, btw, if nl doesnt claim, hes effectively saying hes scum to me without directly announcing it)

[Vex Vience]

honestly, im really tempted to hammer nl right now since theyre effectively claiming scum by voting urap and saying they wont claim. im just being nice and giving them a chance to claim

something

.

[Vex Vience]

@elsa touchè
@nl heres where im at with that: i can pretty much say that you v urap isnt svs, its possible but very unlikely to be tvt, meaning its most likely a tvs situation. if we lynch one of you, we have the other one confirmed pretty much. if you flip scum, we know urap is town. if you flip town, we know urap is scum. i noticed differences between both of your games and this one, pointing me to the conclusion of you being scum and urap being town.

and also does anyone have anything else theyd like to say or am i / pvt free to hammer whenever?

[Vex Vience]

i dont think that urap is playing similarly to how they did as draco. if anything, its possible that their metas overlap with one another, exactly how my irl town and scum meta do. i also dont think youre playing similarly to how you did in forkbomb.

[Vex Vience]

you really want me to cite

everything

that leads me to believe this is uraps town meta compared to draco? you really want that?

[Vex Vience]

its not random if its tvt or tvs lol. your role doesnt change midgame. whatever you got at the start is whatever you are now. i feel like between the two of you, one of you is scum. therefore, if you flip scum, we know urap is town. if you flip town, we know urap is scum. its not random if urap will be town or scum based off that line of thinking. its either youre scum and urap is town, or youre town and urap is scum.

[Vex Vience]

we also dont have time lol. im ready to hammer, pvt is ready to hammer. theres not a lot left to discuss. you arent getting off the stand and you arent changing my mind on what i think you are. only your flip will change my mind on that.
my meta read on urap isnt based on the skills they have/dont have either. its based on how theyre talking in this game. and compared against their scumgame, it makes me believe theyre a townie in this game.

[Vex Vience]

VOTE: nl

we know what you are after this at the very least. cop should check urap if this is town, nmsa if this is mafia, and whoever ig if this is lyncher.

[Vex Vience]

we just said to check nmsa if you flip mafia, are you now claiming mafia lol?

[Vex Vience]

are you lyncher clem?

[Vex Vience]

the game may be over right this very second actually nl. i think clem just claimed lyncher with target on you.

[Vex Vience]

nl, you are currently overlooking my point. clem just said "that was easy" implying he is the lyncher and you were his target.

[Vex Vience]

if thats the case, it doesnt matter what we do rn, the game is over anyways.

[Vex Vience]

clem, be honest here, are you lyncher with nl as your target? if so, the games over. you win.

[Vex Vience]

clem just answer the question. i need to know if i can stop theorizing or not.

[Vex Vience]

i just wanna know if the game is over or not before jingle says so.

[Vex Vience]

because if you are, i wanna make my prediction of who the mafia are before jingle reveals it

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???
right after you get hammered you start calling urap town?? i honestly dont get what youre going at here.

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my prediction for mafia then: elsa and aust

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Spoiler: full game prediction

elsa, aust - mafia
clem - lyncher
nl - lyncher target
nsma - cop
everyone else - vt

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why do you say that im town that way aust? am i right in my prediction?

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no actually, id disagree with you on that aust. i think what nmsa said is truthful and townie. regardless, if you arent claiming you get lynched. admittedly, really the only claim he couldve gotten away with was cop, but whoever the cop is wouldve cc'd it.

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i actually dont have a cop read. i think the game is over so im posting what i think the role assignment was. i think out of anyone in the game, nmsa has the highest chance of being the cop. thats why i said them.

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im gonna save the "i told you i was town" until after the game, but, im town.

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also, i dont see how ive proven to be anti-town in my actions. this is really in-line with my town meta. my natural scummeta is to just lurk out of the game.

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no actually, i did think about it. sure, regardless of what you claim, youll probably get lynched, but a vt clam would get people to back off imo. we run the risk of you being lyncher target. wed wanna quickly see if anyone was pushing it extremely hard and if so, what are the odds of them being lyncher? a cop claim wouldve gotten you off regardless, since youre the cop unless you got ccd

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if i was you, id have claimed vt and said "i think im lynchers target. cop check me tonight."

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the only way it could backfire is if the lyncher wasnt voting you and they hammered you. otherwise, if youre mafia, that basically guarantees that you get away with it.

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why would we bother lynching the supposed lyncher target when that means we lose the game?

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not really. he couldve made a case to get off the stand if he claimed vt.

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@aust, yes, and thats my point. if he comes up guilty, we know hes the lyncher target. if he doesnt, we know hes just a vt.

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also, nl, i typically stick with my gut on meta reads. ive had several times ive had the right read originally then went against it. mostly in irl games, but it still applies to forums.

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it even happened on the forums where i psyched myself out of a correct meta read. it was in a newbie under korina, and we went into 3p lylo. correctly meta read the other, and then voted against them because i doubted myself. it happens even more frequently in irl games with me.

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not really. he couldve made a case to get off the stand if he claimed vt.

Everybody in the game should claim vt there. Except perhaps the cop, if they lack imagination.

If I was successful in steering a lynch elsewhere and survived, my claiming vt would have accomplished nothing except shrinking the pool of possible cops for the mafia to night-kill.

ok, but we have a greater chance of hitting scum then. the cop would be forced to out d2 if thats the case anyways, so it wouldnt matter who scum were hunting for.

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@aust, i feel very eh about that. in this setup i think the cop basically ignores any guilties they get. we have no way of sorting them out as mafia or lyncher target unless we have a n1 red and then they die n2 and flip vt. the cop really exists to find vts in this game.

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@nl yes i play tos but in this case, wed only let you off the stand. wed probably wagon urap instead and wed know based on uraps flip what you are. we never let every single vt off the stand. only the first one on d1 since the cop has to out d2.

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also, save the pms till after jingle announces the game is over.

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scum gamethrow by outting themselves more though imo.

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there is never a case where claiming you are scum is ever a good idea. even in a game like this, if youre scum, you should be able to direct the lynch elsewhere without stating you are scum.

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if clem is trolling, im willing to bet scum kill him just for that.

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scum gamethrow by outting themselves more though imo.

Not if they are both alive. If there's only one scum then yeah, they're losing whether they claim or not, but if there are two then they will straight-up lose if neither of them claims but they still have a chance to win if one of them claims. There's no "more." Taking an option that guarantees a loss when there's an option where a win is possible-- as refusing to claim in this situation would be-- is gamethrowing.

once again, scum should be able to get someone else lynched without saying that theyre scum directly. fmpov, if you say youre scum under

any

circumstance, youre throwing. you are actively harming your teams chances of winning the game. it doesnt matter that you are circumventing a loss, you are actively hurting your own teams chances of winning the game by claiming you are scum.

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yea, apparently. according to clem anyways. elsa, were you maf this game, as well?

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honestly, if thats the case, clem has my respect forever for actually thinking of something like that.

pedit: lets say im mafia, and youre the cop here nl. im at l-1, and i claim cop. you are saying you wouldn't cc that? please explain how that makes sense in any universe.

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MOTHERFUCKER

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@jingle you have me twice as cop and vt btw

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i knew elsa was evil. kinda disappointed that i was right on ico early on but changed the read. nice to know though that i accurately meta-read urap and accurately read pvt and nmsa.

@nl you always cc the second you can. i had a newbie where one of the newbies waited a day before ccing, (iirc). they got hanged instantly. you wouldve been lynched instantly in this case.

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i was thinking that i was obviously trying to make it seem like i wasnt cop. i was afraid i was gonna die n1 lol

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@jingle you can reveal my pt whenever. everything in it im ok with showing

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yea, i knew elsa was scum based on their lurking.

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i was thinking that clem was trolling, thats why i called nmsa as cop in my prediction.

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i wouldnt have ever called myself out as cop. i was also really hoping nl, you were mafia and you decided to claim cop just so i could hammer you and then say "youre not cop, im the cop. die scum"

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we lose four townies that way, compared to the one wed lose if you claimed instantly.

townie lynched d1, townie shot n1. cop lynched d2. townie shot n2. scum lynched d3 v scum lynched d1. cop shot n1

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viewtopic.php?f=90&t=79646 - personal pt

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i always request a pt when playing for thoughts and whatnot. if you wanna see what i thought during the game, you can check it out. otherwise, its really just what ive posted in the game.

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i wouldnt have ever called myself out as cop. i was also really hoping nl, you were mafia and you decided to claim cop just so i could hammer you and then say "youre not cop, im the cop. die scum"

This would have been funny, if nothing else.

thats what i was really hoping for. i was so excited for your claim because if it was cop i was just gonna hammer you instantly and say you werent cop. i wanted it so badly.

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i even mentioned it in my personal pt lol

i think nl will always flip scum here. i just hope he decides to claim cop so i can quickhammer him.

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i genuinely thought you were scum though nl.

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true, but if nl claimed cop, my thoughts are that hes mafia who got caught. therefore id always hammer that.

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i dont get why a lyncher would claim cop in that case. id just claim lyncher and call out someone random as my target just to see the chaos from that.

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itd be more fun to see the town just try to figure out if i was truthful in them being my target or not. ultimately itd also help me get my target lynched since most likely the town would ignore whoever i called out.

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ill have to think about that a bit more later jingle. i still think that if someone claims cop, the cop should always cc it since its more likely theyre mafia than lyncher.

pedit: yea but then mafia know youre lyncher

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i mean, at that point im already dead so it doesnt really matter. they lynch someone else, and mafia shoot someone who isnt my target meaning that i got a greater shot of having my target lynched.

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true. but n1 it doesnt matter for the lyncher. theyre immune and their target is immune. doesnt matter n1 what happens to the lyncher. their target is guaranteed to be alive till d2 at the very least.

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no, mafia dont know if theyre lyncher or lynchee. they could be either. sure, scum may avoid them, but thats only 2/7 players.

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im excluding the lynchee/lyncher from the count.