Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)

[bob3141]

Vote Sashaddin

As he clearly has a unlucky number

[bob3141]

VOTE: Unvote

[bob3141]

Nice to meet you too

Use to play mafia on with a few people a year ago in a forum of a browser game but the after a while there wasnt enough people to make a full game.

Unvoted, as im testing the tags as its teh first time ive played mafia on this forum. I see peopel are usign one that makes unvote is that UNVOTE: . also does it need teh name of who we where voting for

[bob3141]

Not got any strong feeling either way. Always found the intial part of day one a little awkward.

But at this stage i always get the feeling that mafia players would want to have an intial start were there lightly arguing against each other. As well as each starting there own lines of equiry agaisnt different town players. As it would start a organic lines of argument that would naturaly be distant. As i doubt any mafia team woudl want there eggs in any one basket. So im always naturaly suspicious of those intial arguements between players.

And at this moment I do think those trying to link players together a slightly more likely scum. As my feeling would be that they would be bussing against one scum partner, while also accusing a townie of being his partner. So if his partner was lost he could push against townie to even up the odds.

So i dont particularly get a good vib from persons linking of egix and inferno. Over a few posts that would of been a very weak bussing attempt if they were scum partners.
_____

Also if I get the feelign mafia in there arguments would prefer to hide there arguments in group. By making it appear that thre arguments are in harmony with anotehr player that they virtue of being mafia know is town . Ive seen a few examples of that but nothing realy note worthy, just somethign givign me sligth feeling

[bob3141]

hey exilon, do you have a read on me?

==

Also if I get the feelign mafia in there arguments would prefer to hide there arguments in group. By making it appear that thre arguments are in harmony with anotehr player that they virtue of being mafia know is town . Ive seen a few examples of that but nothing realy note worthy, just somethign givign me sligth feeling

can you show me an example of where you think this might be happening?

==

________________A quote above( dont know if i messed up teh quote tag)

Nothing strogn so far but just a few things that make me lightly suspicious

Ive seen it in two of ChannelDelbird post and it just gives me a bad feeling. Nothing string but something that just looks like a predefence if you turn out to be town. By saying Ausuka convinced him and that is argument is teh same as Ausuka. Since mafia know who teh townies are, he could simply say well another proven townie thought teh same. If Aus was either lynched or died during teh night.

"Ausuka's post just makes me want to vote skitter again" forum post 63

"I very much feel like Ausuka has latched onto the same sort of vibe that I did." forum post 66

[bob3141]

72 comes from town I think.

Like it actually looks scummy af but I think it actually reads townie from some new players.

Very much looks like an attempt to pretend to defend soemone but at the same time keep using the" but ....."

As well as trying to emphasize possible scummy actions but raising this in a pretend defense. So If i got lynched and untimatly revealed as town you could simply say you dint think i was scum and could hold no blame

____

[bob3141]

VOTE: ChannelDelibird

My reason in post 95

[bob3141]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Delibird

whats your reason for voting for him. As it appears to be alittle bit of naked vote. True you made a post about you think he was agressive but at teh same time you were hedging your bets if that meant he was town or scum


I just get the vibe your trying to quietly jump on what you hope will turn into bandwagon.

UNVOTE:

[bob3141]

72 comes from town I think.

Like it actually looks scummy af

but

I think it actually reads townie from some new players.

Very much looks like an attempt to pretend to defend soemone

but

at the same time keep using the"

but .....

"

As well as trying to emphasize possible scummy actions

but

raising this in a pretend defense. So If i got lynched and untimatly revealed as town you could simply say you dint think i was scum and could hold no blame

____

I think you are trying hard on this one, throwing shade on URAP2. Your argument made no sense too, you are using the very same word you are suspicious of.

VOTE: Bob3141

Your argument for your vote against me is rather far fetched. And very much looks like your are trying realy hard to make a case against me.

And your beleif that using a conjunctive (in this case but ) is evidence for someone being scum does appear a bit forced. And you even claim that was teh reason i was initially slightly suspicous of Uperson rather than that it at first appeared to discrete attempt to defend a person but instead trying to cast them in bad light

think when some words an insult as complent and vice versa


__

Another reason i am voting for you is viewtopic.php?p=10899154#p10899154

You did the same thing that made me suspicous of bird but even more so. You vote for U person and only state you agree with skitter. Come across very much like scum trying to get bandwagon going but trying to avoid any responsibility if the player is revealsed as town. By saying you think x is town and you agree with him to lynch y.

VOTE: Sashaddin
__

[bob3141]

What are your thoughts on Sash? I like Asuka’s breakdown of Sash’s vote on Bob.

I think Sasha's reasoning for voting bob is pretty reachy but I don't think it makes him scum. (meta reasons)

I'd like to see a bit more content from him before giving a full-fledged read.

Could you enlighten us on these meta reasons.

As all i can see is you describing what happened to him in prevous games.


If sash does flip mafia then it appears very much your trying to diffuse his bandwagons while staying on the fence. So what is the reason in sash town meta that you think this is him being town

[bob3141]

Hi guys, I don't think that Sash is mafia. I do think cby is suspicious or at least needs more sorting, and I find it weird that people are jumping on me without also considering him

VOTE: cbynumber

What are your reads on sash that make you beleive he is not mafia

Also what is that makes you feel that Cby is suspicous

[bob3141]

has town!you ever gotten this worked up about being wagoned before?

Very honestly no, this was atypical of myself. It's just that I don't seem to have that kind of problems in minis, only in larges. Plus, I had another game going on that wasn't too pleasant either. And some non-mafia related problems, to think of it. Maybe now I can see better in this one since my two previous things are gone.

I am always reluctant to beleive when a person make an appeal to emtion post like you did. As when i first started playign some did make a post exactly like yours. Were he said he to felt like quiting mafia, resulting in people backing off him only for him to flip mafia and reveal it was just a ruse.


Your vote garmr even looks reactionary. Although he featured in your post 146. Not one single one of your statements had any reasoning to them and could easily of been picked out of thin air by scum player wanting to be seen to be contributing. So what was teh reason behind each of the reads in your post viewtopic.php?p=10901772#p10901772 ?


To me at the moment your just looking like scum trying to attack the lead player on his lynch inorder to avoid the rest of the town joining in. On the off chance you are town, who do you think is scum and why?

[bob3141]

How do you make a link back to prevous post. Like the ones when you click it, it links to the forum post of that number

[bob3141]

How do you make a link back to prevous post. Like the ones when you click it, it links to the forum post of that number

I think this is what u mean?

[post]100[ /post]

Will link back to post 100 if u type yhat without the space between the '[' and '/'

thnks

[bob3141]

well I'm going to actively discourage your lynch, so if you are lynched and flip town, I will hold no blame.

I regret considering you as town already, this just looks bad and not from a town motivated view.
At this point there's no threat to this lynch happening but you are already writing it off as a town with very little doubt, and already preparing for the town credit on a town flip.

i mean, if you take it out of context and hide how i'm matching his language, sure

Hide how you’re matching Bob’s language?
That’s your reasoning?
Why would you even try to “match his language?”
To mock him? (Not saying your post style is mockable Bob, but this is a really really weird turn of phrase)
And why is this reasoning coming up now and not when I pointed out this post?

Hey whats weird about my posting

[bob3141]

has town!you ever gotten this worked up about being wagoned before?

Very honestly no, this was atypical of myself. It's just that I don't seem to have that kind of problems in minis, only in larges. Plus, I had another game going on that wasn't too pleasant either. And some non-mafia related problems, to think of it. Maybe now I can see better in this one since my two previous things are gone.

I am always reluctant to beleive when a person make an appeal to emtion post like you did. As when i first started playign some did make a post exactly like yours. Were he said he to felt like quiting mafia, resulting in people backing off him only for him to flip mafia and reveal it was just a ruse.


Your vote garmr even looks reactionary. Although he featured in your post 146. Not one single one of your statements had any reasoning to them and could easily of been picked out of thin air by scum player wanting to be seen to be contributing. So what was teh reason behind each of the reads in your post viewtopic.php?p=10901772#p10901772 ?


To me at the moment your just looking like scum trying to attack the lead player on his lynch inorder to avoid the rest of the town joining in. On the off chance you are town, who do you think is scum and why?

I didn't do an appeal to emotion consciously I guess, I was venting and telling how I feel. I sometimes still think I'll quit after I'm done here. I suck and I don't help my team much.

As for my reads":

- I'm not touching the Inferno-Exilon feud with a ten-foot pole for now.
The exchange was too heated for me to get a word in. I don't like to go in a war zone

- Garmr and I were scum partners once, he hasn't done much but I'm getting the same vibe. I'm watching this slot.
I was expressing my feelings that so far I was scumreading him slightly because of little things he said said and did. Though as he said himself, we only played once together; but knowing he was scum from the start gave me the chance to pick up on things that I wanted to try myself.

- ChannelDelibird is surprisingly coming very townie to me. I saw a couple of people voting him while skimming the thread, but after reading his ISO I couldn't tell why. Townlean for me.
I still don't find anything scummy...

- Skitter seems town.
She made good points that I liked I guess. My mind is failing me a bit on this one.

- Bob seems nervous scum, like post 97 below
I tried to find a bad post because I was mostly townreading everyone, I found that one. Having more time I reread it, and think I had misunderstood the content in the first place.

-The others don't have enough posts or impact on the game yet.
Not enough posts or action, I didn't waste time on them.

So then what do you understand the meaning of my post to be now then

[bob3141]

sorry if any one finds it difficult to read my posts. I tend to miss punctuation marks e.g. comma and often dont realise that ive actualy not types teh small words. I think them but soem how my fingers dont type them lol. Even when i proof read my mind tends to fill the gaps. With me only beign able to notice that those small words actualy arnt tehre when i reread it teh next day

e.g. I saw a ship and its sailing to teh harbour. Can end up as I saw ship and sailing the harbour

[bob3141]

Here my ideas in case I go:

Town:

Inferno
Ruirui
ChanelDelibird
Skitter


Scum:

Bob
Garmr (not that sure anymore though)
URAP2

So whats your reasoning behind each of your reads.

Also I find it a bit odd that you say you still think Im scum. Even though you tried to back pedal from your original vote on me. When you replied to my requstion regarding the reasoning behind your reads at teh start of the game. Where you tried to claim you missunderstood my post that you used as pretext to vote for me. With your bais for you vote being rather reachy

[bob3141]

Been a bit bust today. Will get caught up tommorrow

[bob3141]

*busy

[bob3141]

Be reading up on the the last 2 days later but with 6 hours to go.

Although Im still leaning towards Sash, his posting has improved. Were as I cant see anythign from Rui trying to defend himself.

[bob3141]

think Riu is at 6 votes
And your at 4

[bob3141]

I dont think it is do with him being scum or town but simply no longer playing

[bob3141]

The way I see it unless scum are throwing there scum are voting for scum. Rui simply cant be scum as there just inst the numbers for it to be all town

[bob3141]

rewrote as that sentance made no sense.

the way i see it that unless scum are voting for scum. Then there simply isnt the numbers for it to be all town

[bob3141]

I'll give her about 2 hours more then I hammer.

If your going to vote for him you migth aswell do it now.

[bob3141]

I don't know if I' explaining well enough here.
Garmr surviving the night makes me think he has a lot of % of flipping red, because If he is town I don't think CDB was a better kill over Garmr.

I find this very suspect. Looks very much like mafia trying to make a play.

The logic is very flawed as well. Why would you think garmr not being nk woudl make him mafia?


The bandwagon on rui is very suspect. I would def think all but at most one scum are on it.

Luzi is confirmed town, garmr is town in my eyes as his scum hunting proved it, inferno comes across as town. And lastly Skitter who my reeds are more neutral

[bob3141]

The logic is very flawed as well. Why would you think garmr not being nk woudl make him mafia?

That's what I tried to explain 3 times...

If I were mafia I'd kill town!Garmr first.
Scum!Garmr survives because he can't be killed he's mafia.

LUV has a good point too though. But my first thought was about Garmr being suspect for susrviving the night.

This is making me think you are mafia trying to say. That it couldnt possibly be you as your main risk didnt die



VOTE: sash

Who we should of lynched yesterday.

[bob3141]

Disnt like yesterday how sash appeared to be fishing for someoen to take his place rui wagon. Very much looked like mafia not wanting to be on teh wagons as he knew rui woudl flip town

[bob3141]

So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?

I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town (876)
URAP2: Garmr is town (343, 418), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum (286)
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town (110) and CDB town (285)
Ausuka: CDB is town (212, 800)
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him...

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this.

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?

So are you saying you kill CBH because allot of people though he was town?

[bob3141]

Think we got sash in a freudian slip. Were he prety much agued the reason that he as mafia killed CHB over gamr

[bob3141]

So are you saying you kill CBH because allot of people though he was town?

No, I'm beginning to think two players are misrepresenting my thoughts. I never said anything like this. Someone asked me an hypothesis and I did work to answer it. I never concluded anything, I just said my hypothesis was weaker from that exercise.

were you made perfect reasoning why mafia would kill CHB. Yet also made reasoning why they wouldnt kill gamr. Evnethough you said that the fact gamr was alive made him leikely scum

[bob3141]

That sounds like scum being all giddy about a mislynch to me tbh.

Sure, I could see that.

I quoted those posts because Skitter had asked me if I thought it was suspicious that Sash seemed to be dancing around the hammer. I found that not very compelling because Sash had basically given RuiRui a 30 minute window to come to the thread and claim, and for all I know would have hammered at that time had I not asked for them to delay.

But, yes, the twice used "this is fun" line did ping me a tiny bit, as well.

This sounds a little like scum buddy trying defend the actions of his partner. Sash in fact danced around teh hammer as you put for why more than 30 mins. Even to go so far as trying encourage otehr to vote in his place.

Did it not look like a person wanting to avoid if at possible, the blaim for mislynch

[bob3141]

I wonder if bob noticed my post where i quoted that exact sentiment saying i felt the same way / agreed with urap2

Am i scummy to you too, bob?

So waht are you reading in sash is actions then. Dont you think it was scummy him trying to encourage other players to vote for rui.

Maybe less scummy if he never voted but still scummy

[bob3141]

And i think this little proding has drawn out sash sucm partner. It ceratinly explains why chb was killed rather than some off teh wagon

Looks like high risk gambler is sash partner

[bob3141]

VOTE: RuiRui

Don't just lynch Sash because of the time. There's plenty of time to vote RuiRui up, get a claim and decide from there.
RuiRui has a lot more potential than Sash to flip scum here.

Looks very much like determined effort to push a counter wagon. You say dont lynch sach because of teh time, yet start pushing on Rui.

In another post starts claiming at taht point he thinks the wagon is all town. And who was teh first to vote for rui. No otehr CBH

Its very hard to argue some is scum later on if you said the wagon looked town. And that was your justification

And you seem to be question teh others that voted for it


On top of it you tried to preemtt any discussion on cbh nk by tying to claim only scum would run a narrative on it.

[bob3141]

Looks like high risk gambler is sash partner

Explain this for me please. Why do you think HRG is Sash's scum partner and why do you have such high confidence about it?

Quoted for emphasis I also ask the same question

Why do you have any confidence any anything you say. I have an opinion and its a matter of fact.

There is just somethign taht makes me feel high is scum and I feel a deliberate attempt to diffuse teh wagon on sash when it was l-1.

Instead to vote for guy who was obvously just a town lurker

[bob3141]

I wonder if bob noticed my post where i quoted that exact sentiment saying i felt the same way / agreed with urap2

Am i scummy to you too, bob?

So waht are you reading in sash is actions then. Dont you think it was scummy him trying to encourage other players to vote for rui.

Maybe less scummy if he never voted but still scummy

I'm reading the same thing as urap2 stated. No subterfuge here.
Maybe you read him wrong, like he said, *maybe* not, but don't strawman me here.
And by that I mean don't evade answering my question to put the ball in my court.

This is your hole to dig out of, not mine.

I find it odd im accusing you off subterfuge, In fact i make no refernce to urap in that sentance. I am asking you and you alone, what you read in sash action at end of the day and what you though of that impression sash gave he was fioshign for otehr to take his place.

Somethign that makes me feel sash was scum.

[bob3141]

This sounds a little like scum buddy trying defend the actions of his partner. Sash in fact danced around teh hammer as you put for why more than 30 mins. Even to go so far as trying encourage otehr to vote in his place.

Did it not look like a person wanting to avoid if at possible, the blaim for mislynch

I don't think you understood what I was saying there, and I think you should reread it.

I did read it.

Im asking what you think about sash for teh several hours before his vote. You claim teh last 30 mins in your opinion was sash waited for chance for rui to roleclaim.

I am trying to determin your opinion on it.

[bob3141]

Looks very much like determined effort to push a counter wagon. You say dont lynch sach because of teh time, yet start pushing on Rui.

In another post starts claiming at taht point he thinks the wagon is all town. And who was teh first to vote for rui. No otehr CBH

Its very hard to argue some is scum later on if you said the wagon looked town. And that was your justification

And you seem to be question teh others that voted for it


On top of it you tried to preemtt any discussion on cbh nk by tying to claim only scum would run a narrative on it.

700 - My town reads are Asuka, CDB, URA.
704 - I Vote Skitter. I also say I would vote RuiRui over Sash. I explain that Sash claim and posting suggests town.
754 - I vote RuiRui without a further explanation.
903 - I said that there is scum in the narrative NK. At no point did I say that only scum run a narrative.

This is just direct shade to try and discredit me, and happens just as soon as I call both you and Skitter scum.

First I dont know people mean by shade.

So you think its convient that teh person to die is some who you claim you think is town but has you on teh short list of 5 players that are scum. of which one was lynched day 1

I just kept thinking why would mafia kill someone on teh wagon as from my numbers 2 mafia have to me on that wagon. But if they were goign to go after those that didnt vote for a clear lurking town.

those that didnt vote rui. inferno, gamr , me , skitter and luzi

You cant go after luzi as he is confirmed town but you have already picked those you will go after in 700

Rui is dead, and inferno, skitter and me didnt vote Rui.

{Bob's, RuiRui, Inferno}

{Sash}
{Skitter}


Im migth have miss understood that post as it wasnt clear

[bob3141]

I wonder if bob noticed my post where i quoted that exact sentiment saying i felt the same way / agreed with urap2

Am i scummy to you too, bob?

So waht are you reading in sash is actions then. Dont you think it was scummy him trying to encourage other players to vote for rui.

Maybe less scummy if he never voted but still scummy

I'm reading the same thing as urap2 stated. No subterfuge here.
Maybe you read him wrong, like he said, *maybe* not, but don't strawman me here.
And by that I mean don't evade answering my question to put the ball in my court.

This is your hole to dig out of, not mine.

I was trying tp dtermine form you responses if eitehr you were trying to subtly cover for sash. Or were just voicing an opinion. Like when i quested urap on his possible white knighting when he seemed to unsincerely say he thought i was town. but appeared a bit odd


I find it odd im accusing you off subterfuge, In fact i make no refernce to urap in that sentance. I am asking you and you alone, what you read in sash action at end of the day and what you though of that impression sash gave he was fioshign for otehr to take his place.

Somethign that makes me feel sash was scum.

Let me word this very clearly, so there's no misunderstanding:

Answer my question first.

[bob3141]

dont know what happened there. Ill try it agin (shoudl of been in post 982)

I was questioning to dtermine if urap was givign a sincerely opinion or trying to subtly cover for a scum partner by sweeping potnial scummy action under teh carpet. Like when i question urap about how he went saying I he thought i was town.

[bob3141]

dont know what happened there. Ill try it agin (shoudl of been in post 982)

I was questioning to dtermine if urap was givign a sincerely opinion or trying to subtly cover for a scum partner by sweeping potnial scummy action under teh carpet. Like when i question urap about how he went saying I he thought i was town.

That sounds like scum being all giddy about a mislynch to me tbh.

Sure, I could see that.

I quoted those posts because Skitter had asked me if I thought it was suspicious that Sash seemed to be dancing around the hammer. I found that not very compelling because Sash had basically given RuiRui a 30 minute window to come to the thread and claim, and for all I know would have hammered at that time had I not asked for them to delay.

But, yes, the twice used "this is fun" line did ping me a tiny bit, as well.

This sounds a little like scum buddy trying defend the actions of his partner. Sash in fact danced around teh hammer as you put for why more than 30 mins. Even to go so far as trying encourage otehr to vote in his place.

Did it not look like a person wanting to avoid if at possible, the blaim for mislynch

If you're questioning, then maybe don't outright call him scummy for whatever opnion you're reading there.
IS it scummy or not?

Why does everything have to be so black and white with you.

Im trying to determine teh actions of those that voted for Rui, to fish out any scum. With urap tehre was two possibilities, one that would be scummy and one that could be townie doign a read.

[bob3141]

Sash I actualy find you post 1044 a little weird.

Are you trying to determine who would benifit from the CDB NK? Yet you seem to only going into what others thought of him. In fact it more arguement who CDB would have killed if he was mafia rather than him being a dead townie.

[bob3141]

Sash you seem to imply that those that were reading CDB as town wouldnt kill him yet those that were reading him as scum would.

How woudl this benifit the respective person. As why would some nk one the guys they are pushing to lynch rather than one that would not support it?

And in the case of skitter why would you think he woudl benifit. when in CDB town list he was reading him as strongly town

[bob3141]

Rui lynch- Egix96 , u r a person 2 , High Risk Gamble , Exilon , Ausuka , Sashaddin - plus one dead CDB

not on lynch

bob3141 , skitter30 , Garmr , , Inferno390 ( Lil Uzi -confirmed townie )

As everyone knows CDB was on sash lynch. So why was he killed?

Naturaly mafia would want to avoid being isolated so wouldnt they want to kill someone off the lynch.

Now do we have 2 or 3 mafia. With day one confirmed townie we might have a strong town and thus the high number.

With teh max mafia were woudl we find them. Are they all on rui wagon or are some hiding off it.

Of those hiding I think only inferno and skitter could be mafia.

post will go on

[bob3141]

now that leaves Egix96 , u r a person 2 , High Risk Gamble , Exilon , Ausuka , Sashaddin

Now im we assume atleast 2 are on it. ( were assuming one could be off for saftey )

But who?

The alternative lynch was sach

u r a person 2 , Ausuka , Lil Uzi Vert , bob3141 , Exilon , Garmr with it lynch - 1

minus the confirmed townie, me and teh one person im sure isnt mafia is below

u r a person 2 , Ausuka , , Exilon ,

Now is sash town or scum

Those are both wagons ( u r a person 2 , Ausuka , , Exilon ,)

If sash was scum was one bussing or if he is town was atleast oen hoping from one wagon to another

[bob3141]

thats not analysis. Thats just setting up base points by clear setting down a few stats. Analysis starts latter.

[bob3141]

So u r a person 2 , Ausuka , , Exilon , --- On both wagons (group x)

Egix96 , High Risk Gamble, Sashaddin ---- just on Rui (group y)

Skitter, inferno - on neither ( group z)

The first conditionwe have is if sash is town or not - as his was the other wagon

[bob3141]

For this bit i will ignor sash posts. as i will work of two conditions

condition a - sash is town
condition b - sash is scum

[bob3141]

Now as i go into this analysis the person thats screaming out to me is Ausuka. ( disclaimer, this not full analysis- think ausuka as food stuck in your teeth. There is just something bugging me about him )

Now if sash is scum or not. he fits both conditions.

He didnt leave sach till no lynch was near and voted rui

Now sach vote first stalled at 4 votes. Now if it as ausuka himself points out it could be stalled as scom scum are alreadon it

If that was the case then the only possible person at that point was Ausuka.

[bob3141]

Ausuka post even looked like pre excuse for him jumping off. Yet not preventing him jumping it on a later date.

There even looks like posts were he is trying to fabricate fall guys for that lynch if sash turns out town. And if sash is his scum buddy it could give him an excuse to jump off. Ironicly him being that scum he is talking out

[bob3141]

will need to check the early sash vote again as it might have been 5 at that point not 4. With urp2 being on it too

[bob3141]

So, if I'm reading you correctly, the result of your analysis is that you think Ausuka is scum?

I'm not trying to be dismissive, it's just a little tough for me to locate your conclusions

Not realy concluded yet. Ran out out of time as I started actualy looking into it.

[bob3141]

Rui lynch- Egix96 , u r a person 2 , High Risk Gamble , Exilon , Ausuka , Sashaddin - plus one dead CDB

not on lynch

bob3141 , skitter30 , Garmr , , Inferno390 ( Lil Uzi -confirmed townie )

As everyone knows CDB was on sash lynch. So why was he killed?

Naturaly mafia would want to avoid being isolated so wouldnt they want to kill someone off the lynch.

Now do we have 2 or 3 mafia. With day one confirmed townie we might have a strong town and thus the high number.

With teh max mafia were woudl we find them. Are they all on rui wagon or are some hiding off it.

Of those hiding I think only inferno and skitter could be mafia

.

post will go on

Well.
I really don’t know what to say about this.

I dont rule people out unless I prety much certain the person is town. Played with person that was very good a looking town when scum. So I always treat those I think are town or neutral with caution

[bob3141]

Ausuka post even looked like pre excuse for him jumping off. Yet not preventing him jumping it on a later date.

There even looks like posts were he is trying to fabricate fall guys for that lynch if sash turns out town. And if sash is his scum buddy it could give him an excuse to jump off. Ironicly him being that scum he is talking out

will need to check the early sash vote again as it might have been 5 at that point not 4. With urp2 being on it too

Now back to where i was. ( just to be clear I actualy dont know were this is heading )

On sash im think am I falling foul of logical falsey or was I right.

Now the lynch started to stall it 5 votes but why was this. Was it that a few of the mafia were already on, was sash scum or was scum hanging back.

If mafia were already on it then there woudl only be 2 options. And tahts urp2 and Ausuka.

I know im town and I certain Gamr is town. And as we all know lil is town.

---

So is either of those 2 scum or are they town. If they are both town and sash is town then why did he not get lynched


As even if mafia were hesitant to avoid hammering, wouldnt atleast one joined and maybe even a second hammered.


Thus so far my thinking is that one of urp2, ausuka and sash has to be scum. For day one to make any sense to me

So either we had some scum on the wagon already or a mafia member was beign wagoned.

(still not finished)

[bob3141]

but just to be clear today I personly will only consider to vote for some on rui lynch. Using the numbers I have I reckon atleast 2 scum were on that wagon. If not all of them


Of those not on the rui lynch the only ones im not certain are as I said before are inferno and skitter.

With me feeling inferno is likely town an skitter im undecided.

[bob3141]

Now im we assume atleast 2 are on it. ( were assuming one could be off for saftey )

this is a very dangerous starting assumption to make for no particular reason.

Now sach vote first stalled at 4 votes. Now if it as ausuka himself points out it could be stalled as scom scum are alreadon it

If that was the case then the only possible person at that point was Ausuka.

What? If I'm the only scum on the wagon, that's not a explanation for why scum wouldn't want to jump on the wagon. I've never seen scum be hesitant to jump on a wagon because one scumbuddy was already on it - and to be honest why would they be? Two, maybe I could see it, but not one.

Will people let me finish lol

All what you quoted was the intial fact finding with presumtion of who is scum or not. I am finding it odd your getting jumpy

[bob3141]

All what you quoted was the intial fact finding with no presumtion of who is scum or not. I am finding it odd your getting jumpy

missed key word no in teh first sentance

[bob3141]

back to were i was

So atleast one of the three sash, Ausuka and urp2 have to be scum. All three coudl be or just one. From the simple logic

If the first 5 to vote sash were town and sash was town. Then why didnt 2 scum finish him off?

So either atleast one of the 5 was scum or sash was. Would they have joined a counter wagon or finished him off.


So that leaves me with ( urp2 and ausuka) vs sash (not excluding the possibility that sash is scum with scum bussing on him)

So now that we have the condition. I will no think on who of the 3 i think is most likely scum

[bob3141]

So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?

I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town (876)
URAP2: Garmr is town (343, 418), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum (286)
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town (110) and CDB town (285)
Ausuka: CDB is town (212, 800)
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him...

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this.

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?

So are you saying you kill CBH because allot of people though he was town?

I think this is a stretchy reason to push sasha also and looks forced. Sasha looks back and says that people townread CDB more than Garmr, and for whatever reason bob decides to take it as Sasha killing CDB because of that reason? This doesn't seem like a genuine interpretation of events.

VOTE: bob

I think I like this lynch more than Sashaddin now.

I see you like takign things out of context. To take an isolated part of a line of questioning and try and give it a spin

Changing me making a point that maybe those that killed CDB was a player or group of players that were claiming town reads on him. And sash actual responded well to the questioning in my book. Hence why Ive been looking at his bandwagon again. He made no slips with how he responded. The question was deliberately phrased. Rather then

Me sayign so you think CBD was killed because people were town reading him. the "so you" was in there to see if there was a slip with how he responded

[bob3141]

The differnce betwen

so you think he was killed becuase

and

so you killed him becuase

[bob3141]

Ausuka post even looked like pre excuse for him jumping off. Yet not preventing him jumping it on a later date.

There even looks like posts were he is trying to fabricate fall guys for that lynch if sash turns out town. And if sash is his scum buddy it could give him an excuse to jump off. Ironicly him being that scum he is talking out

So what you're saying is, 800 is an excuse for jumping off, but not preventing me from jumping on Sahsa at a later date. I'm trying to fabricate a 'fall guy' for the lynch if Sasha is town. And if Sasha is my scumbuddy I'm looking for some sort of excuse to jump off? I'm finding this incredibly hard to follow.

You can call it an excuse if you want but I'm just giving my reasoning for changing votes in that post. I could have stuck to voting Sasha but we were running out of time, and that would lead to a no lynch.

The 'fall guy' comment is presumably talking about 292. I think you have to really be trying to see my posts this way, to be saying that. While I do establish a potential scumpool for if Sasha flips town, as well as if he flips scum, that's a perfectly sensible thing to do as town; I should be prepared for any flip. There's nothing that makes this scum setting up 'fall guys' rather than town just scumhunting. Besides, if I was scum voting town!Sasha and trying to survive after his mislynch why would I draw attention to the Sasha wagon, and say there should be multiple scum in there, when I myself am in that area? That's just asking for trouble. I would rather be directing attention to other players as scum.

I don't understand what you're talking about with looking for an excuse to jump off: this is my most consistent game in a long time, for me to be voting Sashaddin for practically all of d1, and until deadline where I felt I had to compromise or risk a nolynch over a lynch of a fairly scummy player, I don't make any comments that indicate I'd like to vote anyone else. I even checked to make sure I'm right, and I am.

I don't see how this is genuine analysis. It feels like you just picked a player to push and decided to case them, and you haven't mentioned any sort of gut ping from me or anything that would justify looking at my posts in such a biased way.

(also i'm a she)

pedit: No, I don't see why I should wait for you to finish all your VCA posting to talk about how I read into it - there's no particular reason to do that. You may say it's just initial fact finding or whatever but that doesn't mean that I have to ignore it and can't read into it. You're still making arbitrary assumptions to back your reads and you're stretching to justify a scumread on me based on these assumptions, but nobody is allowed to criticize it because you haven't finished your analysis? really?

To be quite frank the hole thing looks like gambit.

You lynch rui but he turns out to be town.

You then help set a narative well mayve sash was after all

And then day 3 were down 2 townies and you simply say why i gave good reasons. It just looks like cunning play from you

sorry about the he.

[bob3141]

Ah, here we go:

Also I want to quickly address this

Think we got sash in a freudian slip. Were he prety much agued the reason that he as mafia killed CHB over gamr

No. It's really not a freudian slip. Hell he just disproved his own thesis and it was all public, so unless it was 100% fake, which is what you have to accuse him of in order to say this, this is just false.

He doesn't come back to this, but I think that's expected considering there were a lot of parallell conversations happening at once atm

Also, I can't find any other mention to the possibility that I'm scum in the Rui wagon, for some reason...? did I miss something?

Didnt see that but yes I eventually did come to the same conclusion. Although is premise did seem flawed, you couldnt fault for his reasoning that he belived that CBD was killed by some that wanted teh town cred for town readign that player.

@Aus - Doesnt mean I wouldnt push on him for the other reasons I thought he was scum.

[bob3141]

@Bob: Why did Sasha respond well? Was it just that he didn't scumslip?

Could see anything off with his post ( no sort perceptive mistakes ) aswell as his reasoning for why he though CDB was NKed was consistant. Even if it could be applied to him and a few others. But since most players had publicly started taht they were town reading CBD (day one), it woudlnt realy have narrowed it down much.


the hole thing stated around a inconsistency with sach his push on gamr day 2. Where his logic was flawed. somethign along teh lines that he claimed gamr would have been nightkilled yet he was also claiming he belived gamr to be scummy.



With what i perceived as sash dancing with teh hammer. Im still not decided if he was simply hesitant town or scum trying to increase the blame by One. I.e. him stating he would hammer, maybe in the hope that some else would first. Making the lynch in practice 8 rather than 7. Maybe givign more breathing room for any mafia.

[bob3141]

hope to get caught up before end of today. wed- fri i dont have much spare time after work. but i do try and make up for it the weekends

[bob3141]

Why? Is bob your uncle?

I felt his recent set of analysis felt like he was doing it for the sake of being seen as doing it rather than him actually trying to scum hunt.

I find this a bit of reach reason considering i was already scum hunting.

[bob3141]

were you though?

How am i not scum hunting ?

[bob3141]

Like, it seems to me that you started your 'analysis' with a scum read on ausuka, and then you gave a bunch of iioa, and then were content to sit on your ausuka vote.

I don't see any indication that you've used any of your work to inform your scum reads

Incorrect. I started that hoel analysis not because I had scum read on Aus but that I was trying to determine the validity of sash lynch.

The lynch on sash stalled several times. That could eitehr of been because sash was scum and his scum buddies either jumped off or avoid the wagon. Or sash was town and the mafia was already on it.

In addition to my questioning of those on rui wagon. I got some town reads and some scum reads.


So I set about metaing teh entire game. Looked at the night kill from every angle. Ranging form scum killing a threat to it beign a redherring.

[bob3141]

in a nutshell, town!you would have come across as more humbled and less prickly

Since when have i ever been humble

And what do you mean by prickly

[bob3141]

be funny if inferno avatar turns out to be your avatars evil twin

[bob3141]

This day I will not be voting outside of the 6 players that lynched rui

Of those 6 i currently am reading exilion leaving. (below)

Egix96 , u r a person 2 , High Risk Gamble , Exilon , Ausuka , Sashaddin


One if not two of those are bound to be scum

[bob3141]

*town reading exilion

[bob3141]

I'd like everyone soon to post three scumreads and the lynch order they would have for those scumreads

Garmr > Bob. I don't have a third right now.
Townreading Exilon and Inferno. HRG is a lean.

Whats teh rest of your reads

[bob3141]

I think

Exilion strong town lean
Egix slight town lean
Skitter slight town lean
inferno town lean
detective confirmed town by mod
gamr town

sach im scum reading
Aus scum read
urp2 sligh scum lean
HRG slight scum lean

[bob3141]

Oh about 2 hours ago when i read you iso. with epenthesis on the word slight. (i think thats the right spelling)

Upto then you were largley null as in teh last few days nothign has real stuck me as scummy.

[bob3141]

Currently Im leaning towards Ausuka as being most likely scum. Per reasonign already stated



VOTE: Ausuka

[bob3141]

My skitter reads not a strong read as I used term slight. Before he was largely null read for me but my gut instinct is telling me that he is town. Him being in my group c makes me think he is less likely scum than other candidates.


Think i already went over the last bit but prob wasn't clearly laid out. I originally thought sash was scum but as the wagon went i started to get an unnerving feeling that he was simply scum town. Which made me think if he is town why did his lynch fail.

Was I falling foul of logical fallacy or was I originally right. The logical fallacy being that if i know or think half the wagon is town that must mean he is scum. So i started looking at the wagons and the NK generally. With no inherent bais to avoid simply falling into a logical fallacy . After i posted the initial bits about logical groupings of players. Something about ausuka just rang alarm bells. Hence by 2 sentence post directed towards ausuka.

If Sash is town then asuka was prime real estate for being scum. He switched his vote for rui in such a way that it felt scum trying to hide his move by saying he was trying to avoid a no lynch. Felt to me like a smart move from scum. He either got his sach lynch if he waited, as it was only clear it wasn't going though shortly before he hopped on to rui.

Added to that i felt he tried to over explain his action and I do feel a slight Omgus in his reaction. To what amounted to an indirect question to him about first him trying to keep a hand in both rui and sach lynch. Secondly his rather early assessment of sashs lynch.


Finally is sach was town and both urp2 and ausuka are town. Then I can't imagine why mafia simply didn't hammer sach.

Since they would have ended up on the rui lynch anyway

[bob3141]

And start of day 2 in relation sach. He started with faulty logic when trying to push against gamr. Effectively saying him being alive was evidence that he was scum, even though he argued he looked scummy. So i put it to him in effect, why would you expect gamr to die if he was town if you think he is scummy

[bob3141]

Finally is sach was town and both urp2 and ausuka are town. Then I can't imagine why mafia simply didn't hammer sach.

Since they would have ended up on the rui lynch anyway

cause it was day 1 lol, a lot of scum are like, "I don't wanna really be noticed for doing anything" day 1, including hammering

the way sasha treated the hammer is one of the best reasons to townread him imo (unless I'm hilariously wrong)

Hence my theory that mafia hoped onto the rui lynch from the sach lynch. Might be only one on sach to begin with but since maybe they dint want to hammer they jumped into the rui wagon before it got to L-1


And after my questioning of sach over the hammer that is one thing that increases decreased my leanign towards himbeing scum. As i think if he was scum he would of played for no lynch (not even mentioned hammering). But at start of day 2 teh interaction between sach asking gamr if he wanted to hammer did feel odd. And made me belive he hoped someone else would hammer. Although he woudlnt avoid blame for teh lynch, he coudl simpy, say he woudl have. makign it a pool of 8 not 7. But Ive since moved to the later beign unlikely to be the case.

[bob3141]

Tbh your list has me and other town reads scum also scum reads as town. So if I have to choose I'd pick to lynch you over rui rui. Why are you trying to convince me to hammer fui through can't you do it yourself?

Oh, I can hammer, I was just asked to wait. Not trying to convince you to do it now, I just wanted to know what was better from your pov, I'm learning a lot in this game, I ask questions.
What I understand is that since our reads are opposite, you assume I'm scum.

VC 1.FINAL

RuiRui (7):

ChannelDelibird 174, Egix96 233, u r a person 2 638, High Risk Gamble 754, Exilon 771, Ausuka 800, Sashaddin 850

LYNCH!

Sashaddin (4):

bob3141 180, skitter30 742, Garmr 748, Lil Uzi Vert751

u r a person 2 (2):

Inferno390 79, RuiRui 484

Not Voting:

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Finally is sach was town and both urp2 and ausuka are town. Then I can't imagine why mafia simply didn't hammer sach.

Since they would have ended up on the rui lynch anyway

cause it was day 1 lol, a lot of scum are like, "I don't wanna really be noticed for doing anything" day 1, including hammering

the way sasha treated the hammer is one of the best reasons to townread him imo (unless I'm hilariously wrong)

Hence my theory that mafia hoped onto the rui lynch from the sach lynch. Might be only one on sach to begin with but since maybe they dint want to hammer they jumped into the rui wagon before it got to L-1


And after my questioning of sach over the hammer that is one thing that increases decreased my leanign towards himbeing scum. As i think if he was scum he would of played for no lynch (not even mentioned hammering). But at start of day 2 teh interaction between sach asking gamr if he wanted to hammer did feel odd. And made me belive he hoped someone else would hammer. Although he woudlnt avoid blame for teh lynch, he coudl simpy, say he woudl have. makign it a pool of 8 not 7. But Ive since moved to the later beign unlikely to be the case.

Bob, as you can see, my interaction with Garmr was late Day1, not start Day 2. It makes a difference I think.

Have you seen just how many typos my posts have. that was meant to be a one not a two.

[bob3141]

some how the sentance got meraged with something i was saying about day 2.

[bob3141]

were i was talking about your push on gamr early day 2.

[bob3141]

Of note is the "real time" analysis he did where he kept posting before finishing his whole thought process which I thought couldn't possibly come from scum (especially new scum), but I'm very open to different interpretations of this.

Like I was discussing with skitter earlier, the open ended analysis done over time (and with little-to-no strongly held conclusions at the end) was precisely how I played my second scum game.

Obviously, my meta isn't his meta, but I don't think it's town-indicative

That is bit of logical fallacy. Just because you can do it as scum doesn't mean town can't do it. In fact your argument itself admits that its unreliable to judge me on your own meta. When you admit you do not know my meta.

The most you could actually push you argument would be that my post NAI. Since you once attempted to fake such a style as mafia. So that I could be genuine town or be from scum.

Instead you try discredit the hole thing. And say that it is evidence that im scum?

[bob3141]

Of note is the "real time" analysis he did where he kept posting before finishing his whole thought process which I thought couldn't possibly come from scum (especially new scum), but I'm very open to different interpretations of this.

Like I was discussing with skitter earlier, the open ended analysis done over time (and with little-to-no strongly held conclusions at the end) was precisely how I played my second scum game.

Obviously, my meta isn't his meta, but

I don't think it's town-indicative

That is bit of logical fallacy. Just because you can do it as scum doesn't mean town can't do it. In fact your argument itself admits that its unreliable to judge me on your own meta. When you admit you do not know my meta.

The most you could actually push you argument would be that my post NAI. Since you once attempted to fake such a style as mafia. So that I could be genuine town or be from scum.

Instead you try discredit the hole thing. And say that it is evidence that im scum?

Bob, it seems you keep skewing and recontextualizing what others are saying in order to serve your own interests. This is the second time you've done this that I've noticed right away. The first time you didn't address it again.

So to put this back into its context, saying it is NAI is precisely what he's doing here. He's not discrediting you. The post you quoted is a reply to me where I said that it was town-indicative, and he said "no, scum also do that".

Where does he even say that it is evidence you're scum??

see the bolded bit in usp2 post. Thats not the same as saying that it doesnt indicate alignment but that says its does not indicating town. The two are massivly different. One says it is neutal and teh other has the implication that one is scum because one isnt town.

Posts 1273 he says it means im scum. Tryign to imply a im failing rather than doing my usual logical appraoch to day 2. Post 1188 he start sayign hey doenst this look liek scum me in that game.


Finally The question you seem to jump on was direct question to him. So it would be undenialable what he was driving at. Whether he thought it meant im scum, town or that its not tellign either way.

[bob3141]

Bob we have cookies on the skitter wagon.

town cookies are certainly the best. I always wondered why teh town had all these wagons. I never knew it was form of voting before

[bob3141]

Ausuka, scum wants to look townie, not lynch town, on day 1. I'm struggling to buy that town you asks as weak of questions as you do in 1410. "why did scum do the thing?" " to look townie"

Saying why would scum do that almost always is answered by that, and I feel like you know that

i think you're completely misunderstanding what i'm saying. i'm not arguing i'm town for voting ruirui. bob is saying that scum!me would be more likely to do that but the scum motivation isn't really there for that. sure, scum could do that, but so could town, and i don't think it makes sense as a reason for scumreading me.

What im saying is that i reckon, either you , usrp2 or sash have to be scum. I prety sure at most one scum could of avoided being on the lynch. (this bit ill go into later)*



Your response to the questioning over why you changed to Rui does feel genuine. Its not the argument but its presentation that feels genuine. The argument could either be townies plan or a scums pre rehearsed reasoning.

Now my question to you is if you are infact town. Who on teh rui lynch do you think is the most likely to be scum and if there is infact one scum in the grouping your in. If you are in fact town out of urp2 and sach do you feel its most likely to be?

The bit i feel makes it genuine is I see the a sort of hint of exasperation in it that very hard to fake.




*That bit ill talk about day 3 but to suffice to say if one mafia wasnt on the rui lynch. I would expect it to be skitter as start of game he pushed on rui but by end of game he had switched to sach after that voted had died and the vote on rui had gathered momentum. But for no prefer to catch the one or two scum that atleast must been on Rui's lynch.

[bob3141]

So to put this back into its context, saying it is NAI is precisely what he's doing here. He's not discrediting you. The post you quoted is a reply to me where I said that it was town-indicative, and he said "no, scum also do that".

You're right about what I said - that scum does it, too - but let me be clear.

I think the motivations for this kind of play

-analysis without conclusion
-drawn out over time
-without wanting to discuss it before it's "finished"


all comes from scum more often than town. I AM saying I believe it to be scum-indicative.

Then your barking up the wrong tree as that is just my style playing mafia.

And on the last point. It was going to be all in one big post but mafiascum is always cutting out for me. So I made several smaller ones rather tahn one bog one to avoid getting to the end of only to lose it all. When the webpage fails when i press sumbit. Forgoten how many times i lost what i was going to type in deifferent locations. Usualy with me replacing what migth ahve been 400-800 words with a single sentance.

[bob3141]

whats oof mean

[bob3141]

Can I just point out the fact Sash has stopped trying to solve game and been hiding behind my vote for ages. Sash will do more than rui, Sash will post content they said.

The three lynches du jour are Skitter, Ausuka and Egix.

Ausuka seems the most scummy one but not by much. I reread her iso a couple of times over the last few days and I think I begin to have an idea what's down.
Egix seems town. I read his iso and it seems mostly clean to me. He also tried to meta me to know me, which is towny
Skitter is the one that could the most be scum, but she appears more towny than Ausuka to me. Her massive iso gave me a headache.

I don't find anyone in here particularly scummy, but knowing this, I think I'd lynch Skitter because of strategy but Ausuka might be a reasonable choice too.

This and other things just makes me feel i was originally right about you being scum. And that the reason your lynch failed was simply because your partners pushed a counterwagon.

After ausuka responses, Im feeling now he is the least likely of what i identfied as group B to be scum. That being ausuka , you(sach) and urp2.

Now to your post. You say you dont find anyone in that list particularly scummy yet in 1302 you say you could see ausuka as scum. Which to me feels alittle contradictory. So as i read it, You find ausuka the most scummy of 3 players you dont find to be scummy yet you can see him as scum.

So if no one in that list strikes you as scummy then why did you say you could see Ausuka as scum?

-----

Second apart from your push on both me and gamr I have not seen you enquire anywhere else. This level of focus seems very odd. You talk about saying you could vote for ausuka or skitter yet nothing there is original there.


You gave no details about what you read in ausuka iso. So that has no substance
Both egix and skitter. you did the same - no substance


And there are few players Ive not seen you intereact with like gamble. Its why for a bit i thought he was your partner as i couldnt see any serous attempts from you to read him. Felt to me like scum trying to avoid associations. So my question is what do you think about every player and what made you think that. And not just e.g. you read there iso. What in theer iso stuck out to you

---

Thirdly I dont like how you seem to be offering your vote for two players in the same post as you just said they dont look scummy to you. If they dont look scummy to you why woudl you think lynching some you dont think is town is reasonable or a good strategy

It exactly matches you reasoning for killing Rui. Every lynch you seem to say ok it will give us info.


This all makes me I was right day 1 about you being scum

VOTE: sach

[bob3141]

And on the last point. It was going to be all in one big post but mafiascum is always cutting out for me. So I made several smaller ones rather tahn one bog one to avoid getting to the end of only to lose it all. When the webpage fails when i press sumbit. Forgoten how many times i lost what i was going to type in deifferent locations. Usualy with me replacing what migth ahve been 400-800 words with a single sentance.

You did it over multiple days, though, so I'm not sure how it makes sense that you just wanted to finish your one big post?

Since i didnt have time to finish it wednesday i was hoping to be able to atleast keep it together in my iso. Even if i couldnt get them as consecutive posts. Having to respond early would have broken it up, even if viewd in iso.

Was in bed after my last post on the 8th

My time is always tight weds and thursday as i work 10.30 hour shifts and its at times quite a physical job. So realy only have hour on thos days. But on teh plus i only work weds to saturday

[bob3141]

Hopefully the protective can keep the mafia guessing which of the 2 he will protect.

[bob3141]

Actual that logic there is a bit flawed. Why would garmr feel forced to kill inferno? When if he was scum fake claiming hider the logical thing for him to fo would infact not kill inferno.

So the more likely scenario's are that garmr either change who he would hide behind (as inferno pointed out it was abad play or is town that made a fake role claim and is in fact somethign else.

[bob3141]

To start of this is simply a refernce just showing teh lynchs and l-1 wagons. I have replaced dead townies with DT and me, garmr for reason that can be explained later.
for
Day one sash wagon ( l-1 )Urp2, ausuka, exilion ( minus me and garmr)

DT, Egix96 , u r a person 2 , High Risk Gamble GE , Exilon , Ausuka, DT


Gamma Emerald, 2 , 3 , Ausuka 1606, Exilon 1686, u r a person 2


P.s. DT = Dead townie

[bob3141]

Three scenarios:
Garmr/Bob masons
Garmr/Bob neighbors with a mason claim gambit with at least one town
Garmr/Bob scum/scum with mason claim gambit

I don't particularly want to reread garmr again so I might read bob tomorrow morning when I'm fresh. I'd like Bob to emphatically rule out 2 though as I would see a neighborhood based mason claim confirmation as gamethrowing right now.

VOTE: Ausuka while I sleep on it

me and garmr are masons. That analysis on day 2 was meant to double up as a big breadcrumb that me and garmr are Masons.

[bob3141]

I dont know much about game balance but if only one of skitter or ausuka can be telling teh truth then I would lean towards ausuka being town.

One thing that never felt right with me was skitter pushing teh lynch rui yet ending up on sach lynch after it had died. My gut instinct of skitters vote record is one of avoiding teh lynchs to look towny.

Also it never felt right when skitter said bobs town.



My instinct are saying that even if ausuka is scum I feel like HGR was town. ( need to read emmerald) . ( Even if i did for bit accuse gamble of being sach scum partner during a bit of ego trip. You need not know what caused the ego trip at work

[bob3141]

well what caused me to ahve one after work becuase of somethign during work

[bob3141]

If both are telling teh truth. Then only egix, urp2 and exilion can be scum. So if either of these are vt then its likely one of ausuka and skitter are scum. So to egix, urp2 and exilion if you a havnt already stated which of the are you leanign towards believing

[bob3141]

If both are telling the truth. Then only egix, urp2 and exilion can be scum. So if either of these are vt then its likely one of ausuka and skitter are scum. So to egix, urp2 and exilion if you a havnt already stated, which of the two are you leaning towards believing and thus being town?

[bob3141]

Ive gone over the numbers and if Ausuka is telling teh truth then this night he will have another night action. Thus by day 4 he could potentially have 2 clears.

So if we manage to lynch scum this day. Then on day 4 all we have to do is lynch Ausuka to confirm his alignment and then we have all the remaining mafia. Allowing us to lynch them one by one.

If ausuka flips scum then we know then that there is onyl one left.

Although this dependant on us hitting scum. But still even if ausuka is scum i think we have good chance of hitting scum among the pool of urp2, skitter, exilion and egix.

[bob3141]

since the wiki says mini's tend to have 3 mafia and the wiki shows games with 3 mafia in ones with 13 players. (

with 13 players and 3 mafia

lylo is it 7 players. So thats 3 nights to get there. Night 1,3 and Night 2

If 3 mafia there can only be 2 scum lynchs before town win. Night 4 and Night 5.

---

So if ausuka is telling teh truth, in game he could get at most 3 results.

in pool of 11 players. (IC and auska obv excluded). with 2 masons, 3 mafia, det? and 5 vt. or 2 masons, 3 mafia and 6vt.

odds of clear result night 1 45% and 55% respectively

with max 2 more results.

---

On skitter role is true, am i right in thinking that woudl be concidered a weak role? As he has 1/11 chance of hitting mafia that has made a kill with it only being 2/11 if one scum didnt make N1 and N2 kill.

So he would have to live to day 5 to get any decent chance of getting a postive result. but with teh same problem as his first action. His odds would be 1/5.

So woudl that role be to weak with just 2 masons and IC to be balanced

[bob3141]

The worst lynch we could do today is ausuka.

If ausuka is telling the truth then odds of hitting scum are very high. If she is lying then hitting a vt will be telling. Scum need to lynch ausuka as if she is town and thus neap she will seal teh game for them.

Today I will not consider lynching ausuka especially when the causality of her actions match very well with find a claimed clear on ggamble (now gamma)

[bob3141]

Ive come to conclusion that the reason the day one sach lynch failed was simply because mafia either had 2 poeple on it or simply did not want to expose themselves hammering.

In addition to posts between urp2 and exilion to me looking very much like mafia distancing themselves from each other

Plus my original day 2 logic that one of urp2, ausuka and sach had to be scum. Sach is confirmed town and I belive ausuka to be town.

VOTE: urp2 [/urp2]

My money is on exilion, urp2 and skitter << just for when its over to see how close i was

[bob3141]

VOTE: urp2

[bob3141]

bob, again, i'm a she

sorry if used the wrong prefix.

[bob3141]

Ausuka would be good lynch tommorrow but not today. As tommorrow either we get scum or ausuka is town and we clear the board.


Its prety much a case out of you and exilion do i want to lynch today

[bob3141]

above @urp2

[bob3141]

mm after reading exilion recent iso I have decided

Ausuka remains a bad lynch today. Simple due to being better suited to day 4.

VOTE: exilion

What tipped it was exilion trying to set up gamma lynch should ausuka flip scum. Feels very much like bussing move


Also egix you convinced me with your offer to vote for urp2

[bob3141]

no modifier to my role

[bob3141]

Ok dec. End of teh day we would have to lynch him tommorrow anyway and sicne sky said he lied

VOTE: ausuka

[bob3141]

im waiting to hear back if i'd investigate as VT or not because two mason claims are town like 99% of the time tho

but my role would imply that you and ausuka are town unless one of you just claimed your scum modifier and there's a third modifier out there?

Looks to me like one of your gambits when bussing.

VOTE: sky

[bob3141]

if i was caught in a lie i'd selfhammer

i guess it's up to the last PR to come forward, if we're in auto then it doesn't rlly matter if i got lynched so ig i wont be too salty esp if they need to hide it

Didnt you offer to self hammer when your were mafia last game

[bob3141]

sky can you confirm that your claimed informed role gave you info that there was one scum role with modifier and two town roles with modifiers

[bob3141]

Garmr should have done the math too

I did do the math I spent the whole night phase talking with bob about it. Bob thought skitter was 100% town I was around the 60-65% mark.

Egix,Skygazer and Ausuka was what hit me.

Can I atleast not rush through the day because Bob, detective pikachu and I are the night kills.

skitter had to be 100% town

In a world where Skygazer is town, she confirms Skitter and one other (who? No idea).
In a world where Skygazer is scum, Skitter has claimed alone and is basically the only town PR in the game.

From your perspective, scum have to be in [skygazer, egix, urap, exilon].
Skygazer's info on the game makes this an auto for *everyone* anyway, as her flip will tell us everything we need to confirm without ever needing to out the PR in case she's town.

We can win this even if Bob+Garmr happen to be scum precisely because of it

You overlooked the possibility (even through it's incorrect) of Sky sacrificing herself to make one of her buddies auto clear for end game. With a small chance of survival. It's obvious through she screwed up because she didn't see her scum buddy Ausuka investigate her. You could of had the last remaining scum fake a guilty on a slot. The only ones that would 100% is the last remaining scum or someone who has to much faith. It doesn't matter now really since my paranoia of the slot is unjustified.

Man it must suck for skitter most of her scum reads came from her slipping up in imaginary scenarios that weren't real.

if this was the case and i messed up and was caught scum, i'd self hammer to deny town info

you wouldnt realy deny town any info as if you are scum either your partner is voting for you already or has stated they will hammer.

I can very much see Sky claiming informed to get her scum partner lynched based on teh fact ausuka claimed she was vannila townie. Most players were either saying that they wanted to lynch ausuka day 3 or day 4. So losing ausuka wouldnt have been a net loss

[bob3141]

I dont if this is somethign ausuka would make but when i attacked gamble, ausuka responded by attacking me.

[bob3141]

If you are betting on teh IC having a modifier that doesnt prove you are town. As all that info was available when you roleclaimed. Thus it coudl easily be just a scum player making a roleclaim based on facts the entire town knows.

[bob3141]

With you hoping the IC was an activated IC rather than one confirmed at the very start of game

[bob3141]

who are you talking to, Bob?

what I said was specifically that the IC wasn't activated, as we knew the slot was town when the game started

Talking to sky

[bob3141]

it wasnt realy a question. Was just a statement taht with teh info you originaly provided woudl never have confirmed you as town but thats irrelevant now since you claimed you know det is buttleproof.

So ill unvote until he det gets on.

UNVOTE:

Still think it most likely you can exilion and all this is theater

[bob3141]

Im here

[bob3141]

the currently leaning towards lynching exilion today. Not entirly sure about who in lylo.

Currently reading the thread to be sure.

[bob3141]

well I'm going to actively discourage your lynch, so if you are lynched and flip town, I will hold no blame.

I regret considering you as town already, this just looks bad and not from a town motivated view.
At this point there's no threat to this lynch happening but you are already writing it off as a town with very little doubt, and already preparing for the town credit on a town flip.

Reading through gamble and urp2 iso this post stuck out Det.

Somethign about just makes me feel its SvT ( gamble V urp2 ). Just something about how its writen.

[bob3141]

during the night I was thinking like garmr that it was exilion but I wondering if my ealier reads on egix were right. Just like how my early day 2 reads were spot on with ausuka and gamble

[bob3141]

Im going to go with my original judgement about egix sheeping and vote egix.

Plus out of egix and exilion vote for sky. Egix is the most likely to be a a bus as I just cant see exilion claiming to hammer and not hammering if he was scum. l-1 is certainly the safer place for a scum if tehy dont want sky to be lynched. And egix vote appear to have no real build up behidn it during teh game.

[bob3141]

The only interaction from egix side towards gamble is 2 posts. That amounted to just the one post that egix said he finds it easier to form town reads than scum reads 702 And then 2 posts were egix simply said he agreed with me when i was pushing for bit a sach gamble team.

Makes me think it was egix busing gamble and if he gamble got lycnhed he would hope to get sach mislynch teh next day. Whiel hiding behind me teh entire time

{vote]egix[/vote]

[bob3141]

VOTE: egix

[bob3141]

VOTE: Skygazer

lynch exi/egix

That also makes me think one of the scum is def in exi/egix. Unless sky is betting on the fact Ill compare our mafia game with this one. Where she listed one scum next to townly some were scum reading.


My gut instinct is sky was hoping we will lynch exilion as some of us had been talking of doing. Find he he is town and then hesitate and lynch urp2.

With the self hammer beign used to stop exilion hammering and thus look bad. So we dont see egix busing but instead see exilion appearing to be reluctant to lynch sky.

[bob3141]

I did misread that bit but its still not good egix. When sach was looking like being lynched you argued that it didnt mean gamble was scum.

Concidering gamble flipped scum. So you only input on gamble alignment was in fact a quick defense of player that is now know to be scum

[bob3141]

It prob is time to vote and hopefully get scum first time round. If not then it up to Det to choose right.

At the moment egix is certainly looking the most likely. If he isnt then atleast it picking between exilion and urp2 will be better than any combo with egix in. As even if he does flip town, the town would be Det, one scum and a town that looks like scum.

[bob3141]

It prob is time to vote and hopefully get scum first time round. If not then it up to Det to choose right the next day.

At the moment egix is certainly looking the most likely. If he isnt then atleast picking between exilion and urp2 will be better than any combo with egix in. As even if egix does flip town, the town wouldnt consist next day of Det, one scum and a town that looks like scum.

[bob3141]

well since i think its either exilion or egix

VOTE: exilion

Going back to my original thoughts at start of this day. That sky/exilion ws just scum theater.

If im wrong then we det has one shot left

[bob3141]

If you are town you wernt helping by not even voting for anyone. Noone is postign or voting and its dragging out the game unnecessarily.

[bob3141]

To be honest I just got fed up with how the day has just dragged out. It needs to move on even if we get a mislynch.

And although it would of been better to remove egix slot first. Atleast if det to look back he gets more info

[bob3141]

If exilion is town we migth aswell fast nigth and get this game over with

[bob3141]

no objections from mason 2.