Death Note: The Task Force

[singletonking]

Hello, sorry I just woke up.

Before I select my mission, I want to see if there is a breaking strategy. For now, no one should claim unnecessarily: Every claim reduces the PoE pool for Kira to guess L.

[singletonking]

Oh and may I know why I see so many people suggesting Insomnia to go on the mission? I don't see why he's town here.

[singletonking]

Yeah. Several times IRL and once on the site.

[singletonking]

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=64369

[singletonking]

Resistance is a vanilla game so no.

I've played Avalon only once and I rolled scum there so I didn't bother.

[singletonking]

Actually, never mind. Insomnia may be a good pick.

[singletonking]

I'm thinking of something.

Is it ever worth it for Soichiro to claim? Having one inno/guilty will probably make the missions a lot easier, and in case we get a false inno, we can get Matsuda to kill the inno.

Don't claim yet, but I'd like to see discussion of this strategy.

[singletonking]

why does Matsuda target the inno? there's no way to tell if the inno is false.

It's not really a need, it's more of insurance because we would be assuming the inno is town, so killing the inno gets rid of shenanigans.

Though I realize that to achieve the Matsuda wincon we still need to survive to Night 4.

[singletonking]

Also if we do get an inno they do have a higher chance of being Light

[singletonking]

I feel like I like Chara based on how much they have been posting, which makes mechanical sense, but I'm slightly worried they may be a power wolf.

[singletonking]

I believe I may have found a breaking strategy, but I will need to iron out some details.

[singletonking]

Hot take: Chara/TLK are both scum

[singletonking]

Ok, so here's what I've got when trying to break the setup:

If Touta shoots Kira, we win, and Team Kira don't get a guess at L.

This means that if we massclaim, we can determine who the scum are, and we can use Shuichi, Naomi and Soichiro to determine who Light is.

We will have to pass the first two missions (probably easy with all the information), then intentionally fail missions 3 and 4 (to avoid losing by scum guessing L) to survive to Night 4, which we can do by vetoing 5 missions, where Touta will be able to shoot Light. Note that we have to do it in this order because Ryuk may be here to screw with our votes.

The only thing complicating all these is scum being able counterclaim. However, we can use many principles to determine who scum and L are:

1. Anyone who is not counterclaimed is confirmed town
2. Anyone who nobody claiming to be L claims to be scum is confirmed town
3. All of Shuichi, Naomi and Soichiro gives us clues on both who scum and Light are, and scum cannot counterclaim all of them.


I'm now trying to enumerate all the counterclaim cases, and see if all cases can be broken. I'd like some discussion on this or if any of the above is blatantly wrong.

[singletonking]

Let me tell you all this:

1. If we figure out who Light is, we win
2. Even if L is known, scum can't win if we take the Touta route

Please stop saying that I'm not breaking the game. I'll be providing actual numbers in 12 hours.

[singletonking]

Of course, it'll be foolish for a mass claim to happen right now, because I've not figured out all the details yet. But that's why I've shared my strategy with all of you; so that you can help me refine it, not for you to shit on it.

[singletonking]

Yes, I'll be posting the full numbers in spite of it giving scum the optimal counterplay, because it won't affect it that much.

[singletonking]

I'll admit, I'm not really interested in scumhunting right now. I'm actually a strongly mechanically inclined person, and I do believe there is a breaking strategy, so I want to use all the time I have to craft a breaking strategy. I don't mind not having my proposed team passed, and if I am unable to find a breaking strategy, I don't mind proposing some random mission before the deadline ends and having it fail, and handing it over to the next player.


That said, I would really appreciate it if people were to actually read my current plans in detail, and not just gloss over it, see 'massclaim' and go 'nope' or something. My gut really wants to scumread those who just shut down my strategy without properly countering it (HRG and Penguin), though I think I shouldn't.

At the same time, I now do believe Chara is town, and no longer sure of my TLK scumread. In fact, if I were to nominate a team, it would be {me, Chara, TLK}. I'm also no longer sure of insomnia being town.

[singletonking]

I'm actually down for playing this game properly, and not using some breaking strategy that makes the game unfun.

But I still want to publish my breaking strategy to prove that I wasn't bullshitting about having a breaking strategy.

[singletonking]

Ok here's a quick mock up of my breaking strategy:

Spoiler:

First, everyone claims L or not L. Anyone claiming L also names the scumteam before anyone else claming L.

If scum don't counterclaim L at all, then L claims who scum are, and we can use Misa and Soichiro to figure out which of the scum is Light.
Therefore, scum must counterclaim L.

If two players claim L, each must mention the that the other L is scum, else we know that L is fake, and we use the one L strategy.

If both Ls claim each other as scum, we get a non-L-claiming scum of one L to claim, then get the two people that the other L claims to be scum to claim, and get the other person the first L claims to be scum to claim. Remember that anyone who neither L claims to be scum must be town, so if anyone in a proposed team is not in the other team, they will be counterclaimed by a conftown outside both teams, and we'll know who the real L is.

There are other strategies we can use even if both teams directly counterclaim each other with the same set of roles, because Shuichi, Naomi and Soichiro act as both cops and rolecops. And they aren't useless on either team, because we still get conditional informaton. These strategies get a lot more complicated, though, so please tell me if you want to see them.

There are also cases where 2 scum claim L, which I have not been able to completely solve yet. The 3 scum claiming L case is easy to solve.

[singletonking]

On another note I find the turnaround by Penguin and Gamble to be quite weird, and I think at the very least Penguin isn't scum who knows that Gamble is also scum.

[singletonking]

PP isn't scum and knows I'm scum?
So what you are saying is you think PP is L and your town motivation here is to state that.

No, what I'm saying is that I think that given PP immediately followed your lead in turning around on me immediately after you, I don't think PP is following a scumbuddy here. I would say that PP and You are not buddies, but since not all scum know each other this game, I can only say that PP doesn't know you as a buddy.

[singletonking]

And with your game breaking theory, what stops scum writing L's name into the death book after 3 successful missions? Even if all the scum are pointed out?

We win by Touta shooting Light, not by passing 3 missions. We can force a mission to fail by getting everyone to veto 5 missions.

[singletonking]

I'm actually down for playing this game properly, and not using some breaking strategy that makes the game unfun.

But I still want to publish my breaking strategy to prove that I wasn't bullshitting about having a breaking strategy.

Then do it after the game is over.

^

[singletonking]

Sadly it isn't an autowin. I've found strategies to bring the winrate up to 95%, which happens in certain cases where the scum are able to counterclaim perfectly, but it's still better than the max 83% winrate if we go the normal route.

[singletonking]

I'll get back to this in more detail but for now

How would you feel about sending myself, Chara and The Last Knight?

[singletonking]

Why Chito?

Why should I send you?

[singletonking]

Ftr Chito is one of my strongest scumreads rn

[singletonking]

STK would you consider chara, TLK and Chito?

No. I'm not sending Chito, I'm getting weird vibes from them just talking about my strategy without discussing anything else like reads or other engagement.

[singletonking]

I think Chara is kinda obvtown in general

I also like the last knight. While he has not been contributing much reads wise, his entire town leader position in trying to organize the town seems town motivated.

insomnia hasn't done anything and I'm struggling to see how anyone could be townreading them at this point.

[singletonking]

I'm sick and can't stay till deadline, so I'm gonna send myself, Chara and TLK. Any final objections?

[singletonking]

VOTE: singletonking
VOTE: Chara
VOTE: The Last Knight

[singletonking]

That's smart. Make sus members pass/fail first. You've risen on my town reads Insomnia.

VOTE: yes

Yup, it does make sense.

[singletonking]

VOTE: Pass

L-1

[singletonking]

STK would you consider chara, TLK and Chito?

No. I'm not sending Chito, I'm getting weird vibes from them just talking about my strategy without discussing anything else like reads or other engagement.

Yeah this post still pisses me off

A correct massclaim order in day 1 means we don't want to give reads if we were going to go with your plan because we needed to be ready to say informed pairings or avoid revealing we were not specific power roles before the mass happens

This post with the random backoff from the solve makes me feel like this whole thing was just complete horseshit

Honestly stk's approach made me think he was town but now I just don't want to give him anything. He barely discussed his proposed team before presenting the vote and just hid behind a mech solution that seemed designed to kill discussion. He still could be town and I'm just pissed at him but whatever

VOTE: veto

I mean I understand why you wouldn't feel like how I proposed a breaking strategy but then backed off, but can't you see that I have actually tried solving the game by reading the spoiler?

I only ended up deciding against it because I agreed to playing the game it's supposed to be played and not by breaking and ruining it.

[singletonking]

UNVOTE:

Suddenly getting bad feelings about this mission

[singletonking]

UNVOTE:

Suddenly getting bad feelings about this mission

Who in particular did you get a bad feeling about?

UNVOTE:

Suddenly getting bad feelings about this mission

Who in particular did you get a bad feeling about?

Curious to hear the answer as well.

TLK

My reads are just really volatile in general at this point

[singletonking]

Ok, but what was it specifically that caused you to get a bad feeling? He didn't post anything between your vote and unvote.

Idk I just suddenly had bad feelings about him

[singletonking]

He's just scummy to me, there's no information to go off of right now. I'd rather have me be the leader and form my own team. I'm the next on the list if we leave this. I'd personally take Chito, me and I'll re-read and search for a third that I like. I think I'm fine with chara as a third, not sure.

I would probably pass this.

So how about Chara, TLK and US then?

Not bad.

Okay now I have good reasons to believe TLK is scum: He has allowed me, Chara, Chito, insomnia, and Baked Nips onto missions, a total of five players, and if he's town there are only five other town players from his perspective.

[singletonking]

He's just scummy to me, there's no information to go off of right now. I'd rather have me be the leader and form my own team. I'm the next on the list if we leave this. I'd personally take Chito, me and I'll re-read and search for a third that I like. I think I'm fine with chara as a third, not sure.

I'm down for this actually

[singletonking]

VOTE: Chara
VOTE: Insomnia
VOTE: Chito and Yuuri

It feels... really weird that you used a team immediately after I suggested it, especially considering that you don't trust me.

[singletonking]

Literally in the post before his

[singletonking]

Yeah, semantics, semantics. I found it weird that he immediately went with the group after I said that I liked that earlier proposal of his.

[singletonking]

Yeah, semantics, semantics. I found it weird that he immediately went with the group after I said that I liked that earlier proposal of his.

So are you passing or vetoing?

I was going to pass it. I'm now more skeptical, but I still think the team has a >50% chance of succeeding.

[singletonking]

if we keep vetoing, Penguin will get the mission pick. i'm actually fine with that, but are you? Baked Nips is also the next death note holder, are you fine with his mission? are you fine with mine?

Also important note here.

I don't really like PenguinPower, but I don't know if that means he's scum. I've never played with him before.

[singletonking]

Chito: I was literally going to vote a pass until insomnia's flip back and forth on nom/veto/pass. What do you think of insomnia rn?

Also this.

I've come to realise that the only reason I dislike insomnia right now is because of his impulsiveness, in choosing the team and flipping back to pass the team after casting doubt on it. While I dislike the behaviour I'm not sure it's actually scummy.

[singletonking]

I’m just overall not feeling good about this composition anymore. You start playing the game only after I put you in a team.

VOTE: VETO

Question: Why does Chito gain scumpoints for you for increasing activity after putting him into a team?

[singletonking]

Baezu are you going to do anything other than lolhammer the pass/veto wagons?

[singletonking]

Back from V/LA

Inclined to reject this mission because I think Chito is town and the other two people on the failed mission are on this one. But I'll be reading more.

[singletonking]

Had stuff to do, I'll be catching up tomorrow.

I'd appreciate having the activity toned down, I can't read a lot of pages and I won't be able to catch up at this rate

[singletonking]

the worst is probably town. I'll explain why when I get back

[singletonking]

Team Kira has their own private thread that they can speak to at all points during the game. The Shinigami does not have private thread access.

Actually I can explain my TW read now

TW was signal hunting, something inapplicable in this game because of this.

[singletonking]

Baezu why did you hammer both Day 1 missions without any other comment?

[singletonking]

Uhh I believe we are proposing proposing it. Not proposing to propose. That’s a waste of time.

We would like to see
TLK
Insomnia
Chara
BNS

OK so why the fuck are you proposing a team that is guaranteed to have scum on it?

VOTE: VETO

Why did no one shut this down earlier? So bad

So this is guaranteed to contain scum from Chito's perspective, but not from a spectator's perspective

[singletonking]

Reading further I see that Chito does realise that it contains scum only from his perspective.

The emotion behind it seems forced and scummy.

[singletonking]

TLK
Insomnia
Chara
BNS

Who is BNS?

But go ahead and Pass/Veto.


Pass: Insomnia

Veto: Chito

Was this even supposed to be a formal proposal?

[singletonking]

Uh TW, Chito locktown? Why?

[singletonking]

VOTE: singletonking
VOTE: Chara
VOTE: The Last Knight

crazy thought what if this mission has to wolves in it

Where does this come from?

[singletonking]

Already read that part.

Read 550 for my thoughts

[singletonking]

Uh maybe I should read up to your towncase on Chito before asking

[singletonking]

Unsure on Chara. He felt obvtown day 1 but that could have been early game powerwolfing

[singletonking]

I just realised that I barely remembered anything Penguin had done this game

[singletonking]

What's your experience with PP? This is my first game with him (I think)

[singletonking]

Okay, Baked Nips' proposal was stupid, whether it was from town or from scum. I don't see a reason to see them as scum.

PenguinPower, why are you refusing to read me as town? If we have a 1v1 as TvT, this is going to be detrimental to the rest of the game.
While you have done nothing townie as far as I can remember, I am actually gut town on you simply because I am very paranoid of my own reads.

[singletonking]

VOTE: Veto

[singletonking]

TW I'm think Chito is scum and you claiming to townread him makes me think you are scum with him.

[singletonking]

Eh maybe I should read more.

But Chito is feeling quite obvious scum at this point and you claiming to townread him does make me doubt my townread on you.

[singletonking]

yea chito locktown and I feel mildly warm about tlk but need to resume realtimes

I have some hotter takes but I want to finish my ~methods~ first.

This was your first post saying Chito town
There was no explaination here

[singletonking]

If Chito is scum he's the most exposed scum prospect on that wagon, I think. He would then have had to respond to me (who loves him to bits) replacing in, starting off with him as a scumread, and deciding to balk at my decision to try to position him for a mislynch and accuse me of being scum based on a meta informed decision based on meta I wasn't informed on.

It's loosely possible this would occur to scum!Krazzy but I'm letting myself townread him on a couple of other weaker meta points. His enthusiasm and tone here are town indicative. I think he's been frustrated by things which I would expect him to be frustrated at as town, before scum.

It's not quite a halo above his head, but I think it's a sound start. Plus talking to him felt like talking to someone very real. It's a bit like the energy I was just starting to get from PP when we were exchanging posts. I don't think we got far enough for me to have a confident read on PP yet but I doooo think he approached my sub with a kind of enthusiasm which takes some energy to fake.

But hence why he's nullishtown :3

Marking this down for my reference

[singletonking]

Team Kira has their own private thread that they can speak to at all points during the game. The Shinigami does not have private thread access.

Actually I can explain my TW read now

TW was signal hunting, something inapplicable in this game because of this.

LOL.

Eventually I hit a point where I thought I was so old and jaded in mafia that any slips I made would be intentional to look town. Then I forget that I'm blonde irl and do

that

.

Did you admit to being scum here?

[singletonking]

VOTE: pass

Not liking how STK is trying to derail this mission...paranoia is setting in...

Also, Chito, TLK tends to make good lynchbait too because he has a similar style to me. Of those on this mission, I’m actually most confident about TLK being town, and you and duck are tied for 2nd

Do you scumread me so much that you refuse to engage with me and are just going to oppose all of my votes?

[singletonking]

VOTE: pass

Not liking how STK is trying to derail this mission

Sorry this really got on my nerves

[singletonking]

Actually guys big news:

IF SHINIHAMI IS RYUK THEN IF THE MISSION FAILS SCUM CAN QUICKHAMMER AND WIN IMMEDIATELY.

UNVOTE PASS NOW

[singletonking]

Chito/TW/Baezu - Are you the three scum?

[singletonking]

Sorry, all that I said was kind of a knee jerk reaction to seeing a team I believe will fail get to three passes.

Why haven't you unvoted yet?

[singletonking]

You realize that if you're wrong we could lose right?

Maybe it isn't the worst idea from you, but I am unwilling to pass this mission.

[singletonking]

I feel like I've been scumreading you on associatives too much.

You feel town otherwise.

[singletonking]

Actually guys big news:

IF SHINIHAMI IS RYUK THEN IF THE MISSION FAILS SCUM CAN QUICKHAMMER AND WIN IMMEDIATELY.

UNVOTE PASS NOW

Can you please explain this to me?

If this mission contains scum and there are already 2 town on the wagon, scum can quickhammer the mission, fail it, and if their shinigami is ryuk, they can force fail the third mission and win.

[singletonking]

You realize that if you're wrong we could lose right?

Yes, definitely.
I'm not treating heavily around this team. I'm really anxious about our chances of success and I think I need to put the best team I possibly can forward.

This is literally it. It's myself and two of my strongest townreads + wildcard townread which my townreads have been more engaged with and townread.
There's strong synergy between the four of us (I'd say Chito is the weakest 'synergetic' link, but i wouldn't say it's scum indicative for him). It's solving synergy, and not chaotic nor pocketing synergy.

idk mannn if i'm wrong here in a worst case scenario i've epic failed on Chito and I don't think I've epic failed on Chito
if you think i'm going in the wrong direction talk to me about it in more depth?
or if you think we're all wolves except tlk (???) .... feel free to continue shading me i guess?

Well I guess it makes sense for you not to unvote if this is your best team.

You're currently my strongest townread. I'm probably too tunnelled on Chito but I'll probably not be passing the mission.

[singletonking]

GG

Please release my thoughts thread

[singletonking]

I think the scumreads on me were warranted, but I think you all can understand why I was so hard tunnelled on Chito for no reason.
And the reason why I basically refused to pass the mission was because both TLK/Chito were in the mission.

Chito townreading TLK basically confirmed him as scum to me, especially when he was put as the last person into the mission.

[singletonking]

Probably should have tried this game harder to prevent people from scumreading me so hard they just outright vote against me.

[singletonking]

I think Kira really needs to be able to guess who L is even if Matsuda shoots Light

[singletonking]

On the other hand we really need to see some Kira nerfs