Open 755: Two-Fold C9++ (GAME OVER)

[davesaz]

VOTE: DuckDuckJab

[davesaz]

First vote

[davesaz]

This is the SK

It's an open setup, perhaps a little complicated but easy to tell what roles are absent.

[davesaz]

Jungle Medicine is waaaaay too easy with the townreads.

[davesaz]

Before you yell a bit
please tell a bit
of the zen
behind the Chenn

(that's about the best I can do)

[davesaz]

@vorkuta, how can you characterize jungle’s reads as factual?

[davesaz]

this REALLY REALLY pinged me as "traitor scum signaling to home base".

What is "this" here? The thing you quoted, or something else?

[davesaz]

hey all!

@mod

i'm always v/la on fridays and saturdays!

catching up now!

I knew someone had this Vla pattern but didn’t remember who. Thanks for reminder.

[davesaz]

Oh lol, there indeed can have traitors

If we see one it says something about the overall power balance btw.

[davesaz]

This is the SK

It's an open setup, perhaps a little complicated but easy to tell what roles are absent.

yeh, can see dave being scum

Why, and in particular why from that post? I’m genuinely mystified how pointing out no sk in setup is a bad thing.

[davesaz]

what don't you like about them rn?

Too serious too soon.

Hmm this was about Jungle right?
I feel like I don’t remember “serious “ from him. Though I’d have to reread.

[davesaz]

Yeah that totally doesn’t feel serious.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Dave

Let's lynch this quick!

Vorkuta's town by the way.

More votes on Dave please!

Why Sky over Dave, Duckling?

Vorkuta, Roster, & Rich are town.

VOTE: Chemist

This is scum because awkward vote on Chenn & ignoring everything above to prolong RVS.

Hello?

None of these posts makes sense as being "serious" in the context in which they were posted.
None of the town reads are based on anything towny.
None of the scum reads are based on anything scummy.

[davesaz]

Maybe I have a higher standard of what serious means?
Anything not founded in some kind of fact to me fails that test.

[davesaz]

123 was posted in the bathroom on my ipad, where it's not very convenient to open another tab or quote stuff.

[davesaz]

@penguin

[davesaz]

I'm adding Skitter & Fusco to my list of townies.

These kinda make sense.
The other ones absolutely don't.

Also, 2 balls in play. People who appear to be town may still not be.

[davesaz]

I think I’ll stop reading till I get prodded. Making an effort to not get angry.

[davesaz]

Eh, it might pass.

Part of my chronic problem is that certain people get townreads automatically and I’m not one of them.
I’m literally clueless about why. But asking about it seems to result in more scumreads.
It’s like my own personal windmill to joust.

[davesaz]

You're.... not duck. Imma wait until duck gets back. /s

they don't need all the fluff explaining that they're doing that

I'm being scum read for trying to make my posts seem fun and fluffy. Ok. Lesson learnt.

and that they don't care if they get wagoned, you know?

I don't think that an early D1 wagon on me will get through, so I'm being slightly cavalier about it.
It'll help me scum hunt better.

Still like my vote on this.

You voted but said nothing about why.
Here you still say nothing about why. Just quoting something doesn't tell us what you find troublesome about it.

[davesaz]

It ends when I sit down to read.

Or, more practically, it ends when people start talking seriously.

I'm looking at stuff quickly before going to pick my daughter up at the hospital after her surgery.
I'm reasonably certain that by this point there were plenty of serious things, possibly including discussion of whether things were serious or not. Short of time to verify.

[davesaz]

will try to be serious then

I thought some of your earlier posting was serious. What is this post defending against?

[davesaz]

Do you have enough for a gamesolve yet?

Maybe

I

do.

Question: between town and one of the scum teams, which group has an easier "solve"?
Anything you'd like to amend in your testimony?

[davesaz]

Yeh, DuckDuckJab can go

Useless without the context you almost never provide.
I don't think I'll ever be fully on the "Creature posting means town" platform until that posting starts including some true analysis and not merely commentary.

[davesaz]

207 is more likely to come from town than scum, though subject to my previously posted caveat about MB.

That concludes this burst of activity.

[davesaz]

I don't think you have explained the scum motivation in my posts.

[davesaz]

Meanwhile I see someone who needs motivation of some kind.
VOTE: rosterfoster
Has been active, just not here.

Note, this isn't especially satisfying but needs doing while I look for something more interesting.

[davesaz]

idk if i see scum motivation so much as they tonally feel weird + the way you're so focused on the setup (and the notion of multiball overall) feels scum-indicative to me. 120 in particular is pinging me for both those reasons. it's kinda hard to put into words but like it kinda feels to me like you thought you were making neutral non-ai posts about the setup and you're confused how anyone could have possibly read anything scum-indicative in what you posted when you were trying to make the posts alignment-neutral. idk how well i explained that

i also don't like how you dismissed jm's reads as being not-serious

Perhaps somewhat understandable if you don't know that I'm a highly mechanics-oriented player.
I think it would be quite obvious if you look at my recently completed games, for example Greatest Idea or BooneyToonz Extravaganza.

From a town perspective it's extremely important to make sure that other town don't play the game like single ball. In the Greatest Idea game I was suspecting some highly townread players precisely because they were being too easy with their townreads and too easily townread by others.

It is also not hard to find in my meta that I place extremely low weight on early and unexplained townreads, especially when they are on players with only one post at the point of the read. JM's later posting is significantly better. You may also be overlooking that my position on JM was in response to PenguinPower's read on JM being based on "being serious too early" and in fact I'm questioning that push since you can't really infer if posts saying "X is town" without a reason that early in the game are in fact serious or not.

It's very helpful to me that you're engaging me, thanks.

And my daughter's feeling pretty good considering. We'll see how well it holds up after the meds wear off.

[davesaz]

From a town perspective it's extremely important to make sure that other town don't play the game like single ball.

I'll bite- how exactly should town scumhunt or townhunt differently in a multiball setup?
For D1 purposes, what's the difference for town between a

best case scenario

2:2:12 vs a 4:12?

A few examples:
Townhunting in MB is unreliable and far less important compared to SB. Not mafia / not wolf hunting can be useful after flips.
Scumhunting is complicated by having to put less emphasis on "lack of scumhunting" as a reliable tell.
It isn't useful to say "if X is scum then Y must be town" due to pre-flip interactions in MB, as they can be different teams. Likewise, apparent TvT's can be SvS (MvW) in disguise.

[davesaz]

which of u wrote these?

BuJ

I don't think you have explained the scum motivation in my posts.

Skitter's case is a little different, so I'll answer also. Also because I'm getting the feeling she's only doing it to fake a read change on you like she would become convinced by your arguments.

For me your meta is irrelevant. I'm not scumreading the mechanics talk for being mechanical. I'm scumreading the post saying there are no SKs and the post defending it because it doesn't feel real.
1. Roster was clearly joking. You attacking him for mentioning SK is a gross overreaction and seems overly defensive.
2. You didn't like that people disliked the post, which again makes you seem easily spooked. They should have scrutinized you for that post. It's not something a townie would usually post despite what you seem to think.
3. Overall I don't think you meant any of that. I think you wanted to push attention elsewhere and it backfired.

-BuJ

I absolutely meant it, just like I mean every post I write.

[davesaz]

This is the SK

It's an open setup, perhaps a little complicated but easy to tell what roles are absent.

It's an extreme mischaracterization to even call this an attack btw.

[davesaz]

Probably the same thing tbh. I comment about setup-related inaccuracies, joke or not.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Chennis

for pocketing me with your avatar

Normal RVS

Vorkuta, Roster, & Rich are town.

VOTE: Chemist

This is scum because awkward vote on Chenn & ignoring everything above to prolong RVS.

It's my first post in the game, this reasoning isn't valid.

Good post.
A. Vote in 32 not awkward, it's standard RVS. B. Post 32 is hardly "prolonging RVS" by any reasonable definition.

VOTE: chemist

Is this a pressure vote or just a sheep?

Kinda a weird question, it's most likely "both". But asking why on a page 2 vote is pretty NAI.

hi creature

I don't plan on lurking but it does kinda happen sometimes

but it's okay because I've been in a tryhard mood more often lately

Conversation, I don't see it as AI.

Back into the rabbit hole

Is Creature not being able to post as wolf an MU thing or does it apply here as well

I do want to do some ISO dives but I’m stuck on phone for now

Conversation, NAI. The answer to the question is "yes Creature not posting as wolf is kinda a thing here too".

I didn't realize this is multiball? I guess I should take a look at the setup.

Feels fake

Is that your only reason for the vote?

VOTE: Chemist

Hi

First half is kinda a reasonable question. Second half is meh.

To answer JM, don't have much of a read, don't think the putative reason for a wagon there is very logical. Some people may toneread it but I don't. Fairly nullish pending content that is more indicative of motivation. One of too many slots that needs to do more.

[davesaz]

@chennisden, if you can spend a little time to give an opinion on skitter30 that would be great.

pedit: town by a mile, I'm severely nerfed in any situation that needs a lie.

[davesaz]

The person who rhymes
needs to make time
to grace our presence
with their effervescence

[davesaz]

Also for those who know me, I'm a little freaked out by being in the top 3 for number of posts. This game needs some flame. Guess it's probably just because it's the weekend, but seriously I need stuff to read in order to turn that into reads.

[davesaz]

Probably the same thing tbh. I comment about setup-related inaccuracies, joke or not.

Did you not see the day-start PM from the mod?

Existence of a PM but not the contents.

[davesaz]

Regardless, all inaccuracies must be stamped out lest someone who doesn't understand the setup act upon the false info.

[davesaz]

None of these posts makes sense as being "serious" in the context in which they were posted.

So, uh, Dave...you want to update your "too serious" response?

Can't remember if I replied to this or not.
I don't see it as being possible that they're serious. I think they are just posts with no basis at all.
You're saying they're too serious.
If what you mean is something else (the post I quoted implies perhaps you also agree they're not serious but meant to appear that way? Or that you think they are indeed serious but logically being serious doesn't make sense) then you should say what you mean. As it is, I'm unable to distinguish between your post being shade or accurate.

[davesaz]

@roster -- not an environment I choose to enter very often, for that very reason.

Anyhow, my vote's current meaning is defunct.
UNVOTE:

[davesaz]

Strike through means you don't mean what was struck through. Your previous post is somewhat suspicious due to the connotation of what was struck. If you're scum, it wouldn't be the first time that I've seen self-deprecating humor reveal scum underneath. And if town then badly placed strike might cause misinterpretation of the actual meaning.

[davesaz]

JM's alignment is kinda iffy still.
I don't normally focus on tone, but I get a medium strength "don't rock the boat" there.

[davesaz]

Strike through means you don't mean what was struck through. Your previous post is somewhat suspicious due to the connotation of what was struck. If you're scum, it wouldn't be the first time that I've seen self-deprecating humor reveal scum underneath. And if town then badly placed strike might cause misinterpretation of the actual meaning.

Hmm, wonder if that was someone else I noticed.
Definitely saw something.
Are there two players using strike heavily?
<returns to research>

[davesaz]

Oh, it was you, in a different region of the post than I remembered it being in. Was looking near the end of posts not right in the middle...
You explained it just now.

Pedit:
I use strike myself but

very

sparingly and in contexts where it's easy to interpret.

[davesaz]

Chemist made some good points.
But they're hidden in spoilers which means some players might not see them.

I don’t like how JM swaps back and forth between a supposed joke vote and serious reads.

This comment was about JM's first 4 posts (I think). Similar to what PP is saying maybe, but said a lot clearer.

I hope you're town, Skitter.

I'm adding Skitter & Fusco to my list of townies.

I feel like there’s a disconnect confidence-wise between these posts.

This is related to what I'm saying tone wise. But I'm less confident that it's a disconnect, it's possible this is merely stream posting by JM.

I'll talk with you soon, Skitter.

I know you're town

& that's going to make this game a lot easier for both of us.

More confidence disconnect to the level where it feels like TMI (even though this is multiball)

I saw this, wanted to comment, but decided not to because there was something I needed to check but couldn't at the time.
That reservation about it has been cleared up, and I agree now that the bolded seems TMI.

[davesaz]

Gimmick doesn't make him town, agreed.

[davesaz]

Got opinions on anyone else?

[davesaz]

You voted but said nothing about why.

Actually, dude dave youre seeming kind of overagitated this game. Wanna crash on a couch and talk it out?
Im not getting a hunting vibe at all with your questions. Theyre all oddly defensive in the weakest kind of way.

The one you quoted is a very fine hunting question, but you decided to edit it down to the point that the context is lost. Why take that approach?
You'd need to be more specific about what you think is oddly defensive and/or weak.

[davesaz]

The vote asked about in this post

why vote here instead of your wagon dave?

happened at the end of a burst of activity which started with this post

I'm looking at stuff quickly before going to pick my daughter up at the hospital after her surgery.

BTW I think I asked you a question or two during that sequence. Have you answered them? Or was that someone else I was asking...

[davesaz]

Expanding on 362 being in a hurry I didn't even know the VC at that point or care. I noticed someone due for a prod and voted them.

[davesaz]

Oh hey, Persivul seems to have posted that case that I was saying he didn't have.
Guess I'll need to look at that after dinner.
(This is your friendly 55+ player making himself a note of what to do later in case he doesn't remember )

[davesaz]

I even voted a lurker (the only decent reason to vote dave BTW - his tone is always awkward).

Did you actually call the highest postcount player a lurker? Or is this just an awkward juxtaposition?

Which brings me to, I like not having a bajillion posts to read but it's so rare for me to have the highest postcount that I'm not quite sure how to react.

[davesaz]

@mod: I unvoted in 325 which is not reflected in the vc in 356

[davesaz]

Oh, sure it's correct that I push before voting, vs. some people who vote and then push. I know it's more playstyle than scum-indicative for me but others could view this differently.

[davesaz]

The alt reveal doesn't help me at all.
The conversation helped quite a bit more.

"I know I'm town

now

" -- who

ever

says that? As written it implies there was doubt before. Don't think any of the roles are ambiguous.

[davesaz]

"I know I'm town now" -- who ever says that?

WTF, try reading for context.

I would have expected something along the lines of
I know I'm town so I'll push him now.
The now modifies the push in this case, not the knowing.

Notice I'm not basing a read change on this nuance. I don't expect everyone to know those are two different statements. It's a very minor clue, minor enough it could mean nothing.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Dunn- low presence and receiving end of traitorposting.

What does that even mean?

Got any reads?

[davesaz]

Chemist is a great lynch but not a great wagon

- tw

Elaborate please.

[davesaz]

I'm sorry but I have to keep that reasoning to myself for the moment.

i'd kinda like some help reading her because i get like exactly nothing out of reading her posts

Was this Baezu (spelling?)?
Can you give an example? I don't think I got nothing...

[davesaz]

How do you feel about the conflicting reads on your slot dave?

I don't like the ones who are wrong. I'm always torn between suspecting the people town reading me as trying to buddy, or the scum readers trying for an easy mislynch. Yes I'm aware that this means I could in theory suspect anyone who has a non-null read on me. I'm not sure what to do about it, because I've both found and overlooked scum in both directions in the past.

[davesaz]

@mod vla till this time Sunday

Camping with access but limited time.

[davesaz]

Ill replace out if i find i cant muster the energy for this. I wont let a slot get condemned for my laziness.

New rules - you're not allowed to talk about replacing out.

[

m

o

d

v

e

r

i

f

y

]

Technically it's a rule about threatening or demanding replace. That was neither.

Catching up while waiting for the scouts to settle down for the night. Not really keeping these pages in memory.

[davesaz]

At 41 seeing what’s at the end.

[davesaz]

does anyone know if penguinpower prefers town or scum?

I'd only have a vague memory. Don't think it's productive to guess.

[davesaz]

Can someone give me cliffnotes on why Chemist? That campout put me pretty far out of touch.

[davesaz]

right. this died.

VOTE: barzu


willing to do almost anyone not above a nullread.

VOTE: Baezu let's goo

VOTE: Baezu let's goo

Fine
VOTE: baezu

Ddj i'm holding u to swinging back towards chemist at eod

Also pointing out that chemist has basically been promising reads and isos and content since like *last wednesday* and hasnt really done it and that he's basically lurked his way into the wagon dying for no discernible reason given that there's exactly one person townreading hin for meh reasons

I dont get why people are reluctant to vote there and i dont ger why the wagon died down

swinging back towards chemist at eod

unless we get a good wagon going on bae?

I think chemist is scum and want him lynched and will continue pushing that because i dont get why the wagon fizzled out.

I dont scumread bae. I dont townread her either; she's just a lot of null to me rn.

Rn of the two of them i much prefer chemist being lynched but if that's not happening i'll work on sorting bae.

Why the votes? I can guess but I'd like to avoid putting words in anyone's mouths.
I have a weak TR there.

[davesaz]

roster - scumread. just randomly throwing out stuff like "awkward" or "town" without giving much reasoning as described in 1205

Have you been reading my most recent posts?

How much has your recent posting been affected by comments like 1332?

[davesaz]

dave would you mind talking to me abt what you're seeing w/ chemist? If you need some talking points and prompts lmk and I'll provide!

It’s more like not seeing probably. Like what are people who scumread chemist seeing?

[davesaz]

why are ppl still townreading me ive been lurking so much

Lampshading.
VOTE: skygazer

[davesaz]

dave would you mind talking to me abt what you're seeing w/ chemist? If you need some talking points and prompts lmk and I'll provide!

It’s more like not seeing probably. Like what are people who scumread chemist seeing?

A lot of apologies for not playing and not much else

I would have disagreed from speed reading but I see what you mean after going slower.
On mobile. Want to check VC when I get home.

[davesaz]

There isn't any agenda but it looks like trying to avoid getting stuck in inconvenient reads.

[davesaz]

I wanted to point out PP lurking possibly being AI but you beat me to it.
VOTE: PenguinPower

[davesaz]

VC please?

[davesaz]

Lol why was no one playing until a Penguin wagon showed up
UNVOTE: i don’t trust scum to not get trigger happy

Hi PP
Got any new reads? Your wagon was intteresting

Feels informed (specifically not wanting scum to be trigger happy implies expecting the wagoned to be town), though in a MB game it's harder to tell.

[davesaz]

I think i like them in this order

Which form of "like" in this case?

[davesaz]

Why are you town PP? Like its time to play. idk why you responded to the wagon at all if you werent prepared to engage.

Uh...I didn't respond to the wagon. I caught up with the thread.

Describe this catch up please.

[davesaz]

I think i like them in this order

Which form of "like" in this case?

I dont know what you're asking, sorry

like for town, like for scum, like the vote etc

[davesaz]

Why are you town PP? Like its time to play. idk why you responded to the wagon at all if you werent prepared to engage.

Uh...I didn't respond to the wagon. I caught up with the thread.

Describe this catch up please.

I skimmed through the posts since Sunday while drinking a glass of wine and commented on things I found relevant.

The first comment you made was about it being a bad time to return.

[davesaz]

The first comment you made was about it being a bad time to return.

And...?

And that doesn't sound like skimming the things since Sunday...
Being unaware of how you tend to do things I'm comparing to what I know people do in general, and it doesn't match.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:
Makes sense and easy enough to verify the tendency to work in reverse if needed.

[davesaz]

Who are you getting that impression from?

[davesaz]

@MOD: I'm not voting PenguinPower rn

UNVOTE:
Makes sense and easy enough to verify the tendency to work in reverse if needed.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Chemist

[davesaz]

Does anyone know the count?

[davesaz]

Now you're right there with a VC.
Kinda wanted to leave the fakehammer alone and see what happened.

[davesaz]

Yeah, it wasn't a complaint. Just unfortunate timing.

[davesaz]

I have seen the above conversation. Gotta do work stuff, don't have time to look closely rn.

[davesaz]

Gotta re-evaluate just about everything. It will take me a while.

[davesaz]

Still here, still need to do that research from early game.
Looks like I get to dust off some old meta. Game might have gotten 10-20% easier to solve, if A50 and Titus post enough.

[davesaz]

OK, digging in a little before going to bed.

am willing to sheep skitter/jungle here

and am not liking persi's recent posts

why not?

talked about this in 621 but basically their interactions w shoshin reeked of bad omgus w/ shoddy reasoning

doesnt help that they're so witholding on their duck read even going to dodge the question based on the semantics of me asking about a specific player in the hydra rather than the hydra itself...

like their duck read is important for me to try and comprehend one of their posts and soshin asked as well first and they just kinda dodged it unless i missed it

This Skygazer post stands out as a type of post to possibly get killed over.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Dunnstral

This is the SK

Anyone know if rosterfoster would use this type of post to "distance rvs"?

[davesaz]

So I'd want to lynch in Irr/Skitter/Dave/Sky/Bauzu/Dunn/Furrosco

Scum are likelier to be in middle IMO so I'd exclude Irr and Furrosco (also his vote was less blending in I thought).

I thought Sky and DAve were town so I'm down for Baezu/Dunn today. With reminder than Chenn is also scum.

Making a note of this for future reference.

[davesaz]

OK, digging in a little before going to bed.

am willing to sheep skitter/jungle here

and am not liking persi's recent posts

why not?

talked about this in 621 but basically their interactions w shoshin reeked of bad omgus w/ shoddy reasoning

doesnt help that they're so witholding on their duck read even going to dodge the question based on the semantics of me asking about a specific player in the hydra rather than the hydra itself...

like their duck read is important for me to try and comprehend one of their posts and soshin asked as well first and they just kinda dodged it unless i missed it

This Skygazer post stands out as a type of post to possibly get killed over.

what makes you think so

If she had any posts to get killed over... it would mean she was a threat to Persivul.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Titus

[davesaz]

dave is a good wagon

Lazy approach

[davesaz]

I've never seen this much resistance / hesistancy towards a lynch of a slot nobody cares about not even the slot's owner.

This comment about Persivul / Titus? Or someone else?

[davesaz]

davesaz is another scum.

Ya kinda starting to feel this too

Also both lazy.

[davesaz]

davesaz is another scum.

Ya kinda starting to feel this too

Also both lazy.

I mean I’m tending to agree with the sentiment that your contributions this game have slowed to such a crawl it’s about time to guess you’re scum
Though my “town is in the always-lurkers and scum is matching town” gamestate read would give you a little more wiggle room here
Prove me right and play a little more here?

I've been quite open about RL time being an issue. Or at least I've tried to be...
If someone can honestly find scum motivation in the content that I post when I'm here, they are quite welcome to try to make that case. "Hrr, scum" is inadequate.
Lurker lynching is almost always lazy, the primary exceptions being instances where a player is posting elsewhere but avoiding a game, or known to flake under pressure.
Given the lack of pressure to be fleeing from, that 2nd one is more than questionable in this case even if people did think I was prone to flaking.

[davesaz]

A50 can you come back and read a few ISOs for me
I thought your pred was town and I would like a town voice to talk to me about my reads
fusc some IRL days I feel you've obvscum and other IRL days I think you're the towniest player alive

Can you update me on your reads I bet if we're both town we have a strong PoE. If you're scum hopefully the last petal on this rose is "loves me not" and I realize the truth before eod.

A50 going silent could easily mean he disagrees with pred's idea on who to mislynch but needs new material to use.
I don't remember my read on the slot. I have a lot more background with A50 original vs A50 replace. But so far it feels off for A50 in general.

Since I'm already talking about replace-in behavior I'll share my Titus meta too.
Titus being quiet on replace-in also seems pretty odd. She said she's coming off hiatus, right? So it could be rust, but I don't get that "oh good, I'm town and I can just dive right in" vibe that I'm used to seeing from her.

In short, both replace-ins are kinda scummy to me when viewed as standalone. I haven't had a lot of time to spend on keeping this game loaded fresh into memory, so I have not integrated the replacements with their predecessors, other than the little bit of Persivul research I posted (last night??).

[davesaz]

Re: 2263 I tried to do some setup eliminations based on flips but it was too late at night to keep a focus on it.
I think we have less information than Vorkuta is trying to use, unless there is a confirmed PR claim that I have missed.
The information is interesting but not critical.

I disagree with a massclaim because we do not need to know yet as town. Until we have a 2nd flip for a team the existence/absence of a 3rd is immaterial. Every time I see a massclaim in one of these probabilistic setups I cringe because the thing people remember is the scum getting caught with a bad claim but they forget the 5 other times that scum stomp because they know who and how to kill to avoid detection.

[davesaz]

On fire with the accidental pagetops.

[davesaz]

Dave, can we have reads and not conjectures?

Any specific requests for reads?
Any specific questions other than that?

[davesaz]

Like ffs- If you give me all the claims then:
I can tell you from the setup specs which points are lies/incompatible, and what the MAXIMUM # of Vanilla Townies are even allowed in this game.

You guys are literally "praying" for a miracle with your cases.

You aren't the only one who can do this. There are better ways to do it than an early MC.

Chennis claimed 1-shot cop and a guilty on someone who flipped. Those events being true don't actually Confirm the role. There are other possible events that could have the same result. I know and understand that most people have a lower threshold for confirmation than I do -- for me, literally the mod posting a flip is the only true 100% confirmation ever. Multiple things cross-checking each other are enough to move me to "beyond a reasonable doubt". Right now we're at "preponderance of the evidence" which is strong but quite a bit short of confirmed.

[davesaz]

I think dunn has 2 votes rn.

[davesaz]

Dave, can we have reads and not conjectures?

Any specific requests for reads?
Any specific questions other than that?

I'd like your reads on fuscosco and vorkuta

I think Vorkuta looks town. Fuscosco has bothered me a bit style wise but I don't have enough in memory there to have a read. Not that I won't be able to have one, just have not paid enough attention to make a call there.

[davesaz]

Dunn, even if you're still unwilling to claim, some reads would be nice no matter what your alignment is.
As it is you're a bench warmer and it's not helping town wincon, or your wincon whatever it may be, to do that.

intent

[davesaz]

Marking my place at bottom of 100.

[davesaz]

I can't stop watching the goal in Ari's post.

Why would not voting be bad in this situation? I've been slammed at work and don't really know what's going on.

[davesaz]

When I look at voting patterns I wonder if both Almost and Titus are scum, on opposite teams.
Weird that it got so quiet.

[davesaz]

Are you asking which votes say it?
The pattern carries back to their predecessors. Timing of jump onto roster, and their handling of dunn mostly.
It's pretty thin tbh, it's just blurting out what I saw when scanning through the VC's. Not done btw.

[davesaz]

hmm ok

titus i think youre town even if its controversial

btw beazu's nakedvote on foster is not bad

I can accept baezu today but I rly want fusco dead soon

i dont read titus scum.

our pool is titus beazu

What's up with the inconsistency?

[davesaz]

Thinking you're not scum but having you in today's pool isn't inconsistent?

[davesaz]

Why did you cop roster again? You already seemed confident he was scum

I doubt that you would've lynched him without a guilty.

Yes, I have reads:

Baezu town
Jab leantown
Persi leanscum
Dunn scum

Chenn thinks Baezu is town too? Or at least didn't retract this later...

[davesaz]

8 days left on deadline.
The question is about chenn's inconsistency, not who is included in that inconsistency.

[davesaz]

And I don't need to interact with someone to read their posts.

[davesaz]

Umm, that's a gross mischaracterization.
I'm asking a question here.
The person some people are treating like conftown has a TR on two people but is willing to lynch both of them.
The question is about

both

people in that state.
Titus is one of them. It's beyond comprehension that she'd think it's scummy for someone to question that.

[davesaz]

Do you think chenn is wolf who faked a guilty on roster and got lucky/had that much confidence in his read?

If not then why are we discussing chenn? Help us lynch actual scum.

That is indeed a possibility. I don't "conftown" people based on things like this. If someone says something that doesn't make sense, I question it.
Heck, I voted an IC once for bad posting. Nobody gets a pass on inconsistencies.
If Chenn wants someone else other than TR's lynched then work toward that.

[davesaz]

Why did you cop roster again? You already seemed confident he was scum

I doubt that you would've lynched him without a guilty.

Yes, I have reads:

Baezu town

Jab leantown
Persi leanscum
Dunn scum

Chenn thinks Baezu is town too? Or at least didn't retract this later...

[davesaz]

comprehension problems much?

[davesaz]

our pool is titus beazu

This isn't wanting to lynch someone?

[davesaz]

VOTE: Titus
The misrep stops now.

[davesaz]

umm, I’m questioning chenn willingness to vote

you

too.
You’re again misrepping it as being about bae and it’s obvious as fuck.

I do happen to have a tr on baezu. How is defending a Tr wrong? And “pet”? Really???

[davesaz]

Show this "shade everyone" you refer to.
Reminder, asking why is not shading. It's asking why.

[davesaz]

Baezu – 3/5 – DuckDuckJab, Titus, Almost50

Show where I comment on these votes.

[davesaz]

Baezu – 3/9 – Fuscosco, DuckDuckJab, Skitter30

I might have asked questions about these votes.

[davesaz]

V

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April 29, 2019 | 7:00:00 PM Chicago Time.

Chemist1422 – 3/9 –

Baezu, Persivul, PenguinPower

rosterfoster – 2/9 –

chennisden, Chemist1422

Shoshin – 0/9 –

Persivul – 4/9 –

Skygazer, Shoshin, Vorkuta, Irrelephant11

Irrelephant11 – 0/9 –

Baezu – 3/9 –

Fuscosco, DuckDuckJab, Skitter30

Creature – 0/9 –

Fuscosco – 0/9 –

davesaz – 0/9 –

DuckDuckJab – 0/9 –

chennisden – 1/9 –

rosterfoster

PenguinPower – 1/9 –

Creature

Skygazer – 2/9 –

Dunnstral, davesaz

Dunnstral – 0/9 –

Skitter30 – 0/9 –

Vorkuta – 0/9 –

––––––––––––––––

No Lynch – 0/9 –

Not Voting:

V/LAs:

• Skitter30
  , all Fridays and Saturdays.

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April 29, 2019 | 7:00:00 PM Chicago Time.

Chemist1422 – 2/9 –

Persivul, PenguinPower

rosterfoster – 2/9 –

chennisden, Chemist1422

Shoshin – 0/9 –

Persivul – 2/9 –

Shoshin, Vorkuta

Irrelephant11 – 0/9 –

Baezu – 1/9 –

DuckDuckJab

Creature – 0/9 –

Fuscosco – 0/9 –

davesaz – 0/9 –

DuckDuckJab – 0/9 –

chennisden – 1/9 –

rosterfoster

PenguinPower – 7/9 –

Creature, Skitter30, davesaz, Skygazer, Baezu, Dunnstral, Fuscosco

L-2

Skygazer – 0/9 –

Dunnstral – 0/9 –

Skitter30 – 0/9 –

Vorkuta – 0/9 –

––––––––––––––––

No Lynch – 0/9 –

Not Voting:

Irrelephant11

V/LAs:

• Skitter30
  , all Fridays and Saturdays.
  This weekend skitter30 is V/LA until Monday.
  Prods may be laxed until Monday game-wide. This is not an excuse to not post.

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April 29, 2019 | 7:00:00 PM Chicago Time.

Chemist1422

– 5/9 –

Persivul, PenguinPower, DuckDuckJab, Baezu, chennisden

rosterfoster – 2/9 –

Chemist1422, Creature

Shoshin – 0/9 –

Persivul – 2/9 –

Shoshin, Vorkuta

Irrelephant11 – 0/9 –

Baezu – 0/9 –

Creature – 0/9 –

Fuscosco – 0/9 –

davesaz – 0/9 –

DuckDuckJab – 0/9 –

chennisden – 0/9 –

PenguinPower – 4/9 –

Skitter30, Skygazer, Dunnstral, Fuscosco

Skygazer – 0/9 –

Dunnstral – 2/9 –

Irrelephant11, rosterfoster

Skitter30 – 0/9 –

Vorkuta – 0/9 –

––––––––––––––––

No Lynch – 0/9 –

Not Voting:

davesaz

V/LAs:

• Skitter30
  , all Fridays and Saturdays + April 21-22, 2019
  
  Prods may be laxed until Monday game-wide. This is not an excuse to not post.

That first bae wagon that I quoted has the characteristics of a counter to persivul. It sprang up and died within the span of 2 VC.
The ensuing chemist has even more looks of a counter to persivul.

[davesaz]

Players
1. Chemist1422
2. rosterfoster
3. Shoshin (fka Jungle Medicine)
4. Titus****
5. Irrelephant11**
6. Baezu
7. Creature
8. Fuscosco
9. ‪davesaz
10. DuckDuckJab (Hydra of NerfedBuJ and the worst)
11. chennisden*
12. Almost50***
13. Skygazer
14. Dunnstral
15. Skitter30
16. Vorkuta

* replaced momo pre-game
** replaced Rich Hedberg Day 1, who replaced insomnia pre-game
*** replaced PenguinPower Day 3
**** replaced Persivul Day 3

Oh look who replaced Persivul!
Town plz sheep me.

[davesaz]

VOTE: chennisden

[davesaz]

VOTE: Titus

[davesaz]

1. I pointed out baezu's nakedvote was not AI, not that i TRed them
1.5. reads change

Except I don't see you actually changing your read. Baezu seemingly went from TR, to a NAI naked vote, to "willing to lynch" -- or at least that's what I'm seeing.

2. titus is in lynchpool because she's been voted, not because i SR her??

With 8 days left?

If you're town you should be doing more to push someone you actually find scummy, vs. settling for lynching people who are being voted.

[davesaz]

I said you commented about a NAI naked vote.
But the thing that's funny here is that I want Titus lynched, who is obv scum, and you're falling for her argument.
Good luck town.

[davesaz]

I can think that your position is stupid without thinking you're scum.
It's beyond stupid to compromise on someone you don't explicitly scumread with 8 days left on the deadline.
If town!you want to think that scum!me would show up and push that, you totally deserve to lose.

[davesaz]

That was obv. at chenn btw.
Maybe I'll play pissed-off me and refuse to entertain doing anything while I'm being voted.
I get a few extra minutes one day because I'm not drowning in customer issues, and my effort to get town talking gets me this. Almost not worth it.

Quote me some Baezu posts with reasons and I'll think about it. I'm unwilling to consider anything unless it's better than the behavior based case I've already posted.

[davesaz]

Not being hammered in a non-lylo situation does not mean anything, especially in MB.
If you're trying to base a decision on that, it's a foolish approach.

[davesaz]

Sure wish we had more frequent VC's though, chasing a micro trend is a pain in the ass without them.

[davesaz]

Stop listening to scum.

[davesaz]

I'm not certain of anything, but I strongly townread Baezu.
5-2-1 lynch town
4-2-1 2 town deaths
2-2-1 is unwinnable

This is mylo from town's point of view. It's undecided which scum team would win.

[davesaz]

To be more accurate, should be treated like mylo, given town

could

win after a mislynch. But it's pretty darn unlikely.

[davesaz]

Actual scumcase, or nothing?

[davesaz]

Not voting anyone if there isn’t an actual case.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Roster

Everyone should post before a hammer, but other than that I'm fine with a short day. We already have 70 pages of material to work with, and anything from roster's buddies will just be wifom now.

I think Titus isn't mafia here.

This is exactly what mafia might post when their partner has been guiltied.
You have no grasp of motivation seeking.

[davesaz]

That's Titus slot btw.

[davesaz]

Look at what happens after the Persivul and PP wagons.
That's the main reason I've already said that wagons point to both slots being scum on opposite teams.

[davesaz]

I think Creature's posting is really shallow the past 2 pages or so.

The excessive shallowness in the game is causing me trouble. If Baezu is scum someone should have a case. If my cases are right then people should look at them, and if they're wrong they should be able to refute them. It's all handwaving. I went along with the Dunn wagon because he matched the "isn't doing solving -> scum" tell. Yes, that's wrong in retrospective. But it's still bothersome that

everyone

seemed to be using the same reason.

Town need to step it up here and actually case people. It's our game to win but we need to actually win it.

[davesaz]

EBWOP "was going along with" -- hammer fell before I got the chance, as often happens lol.

[davesaz]

I didn't pay much attention before this point. There may be stuff but a relatively recent clear read indication seemed to be a good place to start.

Gonna go with Baezu town.

Fuscosco, Baezu, Vorkuta, Almost50, DuckDuckJab

We're lynching in here unless one of them decides to claim last wolf.

Town directly to lynching in here?

Hmm

I have these people to sort:
Titus
Baezu
Fuscosco
davesaz
DuckDuckJab
Almost50

To needing to sort. Well, reads do change so I'll withhold judgment on the switch.

Baezu is hella lynchbait ffs

Still town eh?

You are white knighting the fuck out of baezu.

Yeh, I think Baezu is lynchbait too.

Is dave scummy for whiteknighting scum!Baezu or is dave scummy just for the whiteknighting?

Still lynchbait (== town)?

VOTE: roster

I was already FoSing him

and if there’s a guilty then it’s pretty much a no brainer

Gonna check the veracity of this.

And did you? I don't see evidence in the remainder of your posts, but leaving open the possibility that you looked but didn't say anything.

VOTE: rosterfoster

Please Explain

Oopsie doopsie

I've given you advice before on this type of post. Say why it's an oopsie. When you don't it makes other people look and then guess if what they're seeing is the same as what you're seeing. They'll still want to verify your opinion is correct but it gives them something to compare to.

Yup chemist is where it’s at

VOTE: chemist

Oops

Same comment. Yeah we know chemist flipped town, but what specifically about this post makes it bad? What's the scum motivation compared to town just accepting the common consensus? (Note, I have not looked at when this happened. I'm asking you to say what you think.)

If Baezu is scum someone should have a case.

I quoted some Baezu posts that are pretty horrible. You can check them yourself.

OK, I checked them. You commented but didn't give reasons beyond the commentary. And your read here is flapping about a lot.
Changing reads are towny but I'm standing by the shallowness argument for now. Open to being convinced you're actually seeing something and not merely scum trying to justify accepting a lynch.
And I'm still missing the cases from other people who got us to this point.

If Baezu is scum I can be led to it with proper explanation. I'm not a lemming though, so racing toward a cliff without reason is not going to draw me in.

[davesaz]

How tf didn't you notice 2755 is directly a follow up for 2754?

Use more words maybe?

Pedit: The read itself changes. That is extremely clear from what I quoted.

[davesaz]

Taking a bit broader look at this...

(In no particular order)
Town - {vork, skitter, fusco, duck, creature, Dave}
Null- {Dunn, chenn, rich, roster, persivul, penguin}
Scum- {chemist, sky}

Null, and hadn't said much about roster at all. I don't remember if this was the very first post Baezu even mentions roster, but it might be.

Now, here are a few tangentially related posts.

VOTE: persivul

Why?

Wait, are you satisfied with the dribble that chemist provided when he hopped on for like a nanosecond?!?!?!?!?

You mean he's not coming back??!?!?!
I'm assuming the guy popped in to say 'hi, I'll read smth and get back to you', so my beetlejuicing did something.
Now-
VOTE: PenguinPower
VOTE: PenguinPower
VOTE: PenguinPower

Why?
Why?
Why?

VOTE: rosterfoster

Please Explain

These establish a pattern of asking why in response to votes. I think asking why is fairly NAI. The who may be interesting depending on what else transpires. Note this is all D1 still.

VOTE: roster

I was already FoSing him and if there’s a guilty then it’s pretty much a no brainer

Fact checking shows that Baezu has not previously mentioned this FoS. There were explicit references to RL events between the first and last posts in this sequence. The gap

could

explain having the FoS and not mentioning it -- that happens to me.

I didn't queue it up for quote, but roster's post after this could be distancing.

It's still kinda weak. I'm more open to being convinced. Got any more?
I have to do some RL stuff now. The next 4-5 hours are iffy and likely to be on mobile if I do look.
We still have ~5 days to get this right.

BTW, it's spelled 'leader'. The cheering is called motivation. You're welcome.

[davesaz]

Wolf because less kills. That should be obv. Mafia hunting is wolf indicative in this game state.

[davesaz]

Yeah I saw your other post about 4:2. That’s not a bad point. Though worst case 3:1:1 after a mafia lynch isn’t especially good. Town should have an extra advantage against mafia that you may not be considering.

[davesaz]

I hope I'm wrong, but think I'm right.

[davesaz]

So both mafia were on that lynch, and I think it's likely that mafia pushed it.
I'm happy to be wrong.
Mafia haven't made the obvious next move yet. The obvious motivation to kill Creature is to leave me as the designated mislynch. There's no way the remaining town would have bought into a Creature lynch.

I'm gonna be honest here, it could be any 2 of the 5 of you. You may not like it, but that's how I play.
Mafia could leave town!chennisden alive for the wifom of why he didn't die, or scum!chennisden could be faking puzzlement on surviving. A hard bus to gain ultimate towncred is never off the table.
I still like the odds of Titus and/or A50 being scum based on D1-D3 wagons. If they're both town it shapes up to a LYLO day being no easier to solve than MYLO.

[davesaz]

I'm the only living person not on the lynch, and I'm town.
Therefore both mafia must be on the lynch.
What's unexpected here is that they must have thought I was wolf, which is weird but whatever.

[davesaz]

Another possibility is that mafia didn't care about losing the extra KPN, which means they're expecting to sail through.
That's a major part of feeling like it could be pretty much anyone at this point in time. Maybe they even have 2-3 mislynch possibilities.
We really need to buckle down and analyze stuff, instead of sheeping each other into oblivion.
I was extremely unhappy with the lack of actual cases yesterday.

[davesaz]

I see Titus mention VCA a lot.
I don't know if the follow through / lack thereof is AI or not.

[davesaz]

Let's see..

IF Baezu is Mafia; her p is in Fuscosco/dave/Creature Wolf is between Titus/DDJ (I refuse to believe this is the case because I think Titus could be Mafia but not Wolf and I TR DDJ)

If Baezu is Town; Fuscosco/dave/Creature have no incentive to defend her as either Mafia/WW, so they should also be Town. Add chenn and you get DDJ/Titus/A50 as the anti-town trio (Obviously this is not the case because -at least- I know my own alignment)

If Baezu is WW; Fuscosco/dave are town, but Creature could very well be Mafia who wants to let Baezu live to get another kill through, but doesn't want to push elsewhere so as not to be too obvious. (Some will object to that logic, I know,, but it's how I think of it). The Other Mafioso should be Titus still. (Explains why he coupled me with her as the Mafia team. If she ever flips he can push for me next, and if he is flipped first he's distanced himself from her enough).

So, I think Baezu is almost confirmed WW by now.

P-edit: @dave: Please read this post and evaluate. We can lynch Titus tomorrow still.

I see some POE here.

[davesaz]

We don't need quotes anymore. It's how the votes went and why. Neither the Mafia nor the WW have any motive to try to derail a "miclynch" at this point, so Baezu is not a townie by any account. If she was, then she would have been lynched already (and she was @L-1, unless you believe I am Mafia/WW AND so are DDJ/Titus).

People don't always take the optimum path.
Also, this doesn't help with identifying which people already on the wagon were scum.

[davesaz]

Are there claims that I've missed / forgotten?
I think it's time now with it being MYLO.

[davesaz]

Going camping, back Sunday around noon UTC-7. That's 44 hours.
Possible very weak connection while I'm there.
I favor an evidence-based lynch. I can't see any path where we're better off in 3-2 after a kill than we are in 4-2 now.
I agree with massclaim. You should specify a preferred order.

[davesaz]

Wholly shit. For the last time, titus is an mafias and VCA is not used by anyone else but titus for a reason. VCs are useful, VCA is a tool used to avoid doing legwork and reading context.

I'm not sure I completely follow you here.

Many people use VCA. I in particular am one of the people who have it as one of the tools I use.
You will find that I have tried to use it in this game. And I'll probably try to use it more.

I agree that Titus using VCA is not an AI thing. I have seen her use it as town, and I have also seen her use it to make false analysis as scum. I'm undecided at this point.

For both Titus and A50 I think it is potentially more revealing to look at the people they replaced.
Also we have a tendency on this site to forget the opinions of the dead. So my review of the game, now that I have a window of time available, will include looking there.

[davesaz]

I should have said that I was reading.
The wagon analysis showing that Chemist was a PenguinPower counter was correct. I was going to post an elaboration once I finished it.

[davesaz]

Penguin was obv. I let up too easy on the reading backwards thing.
A50 took great care to balance his approach so that associations with Persivul/Titus and Fuscosco are pretty even. So that won't be an easy path to victory.
4 slots remaining to deep read.

[davesaz]

I'm looking at more than just that.

[davesaz]

My head is at being

very

thorough. I spent the whole of last game day reading stuff trying to make an informed decision. The "vote someone to prove you're town" thing rubs me totally the wrong way.
I'm suspicious of Titus's one dimensional "VCA is the only thing we need" approach.
Yesterday was my daughter's HS graduation. Just a FYI on how I'm likely to be a bit slow -- not that this is a big change anyhow.

Even with accepting DDJ as town, it's still pretty 50/50 on Titus/Fuscosco for me.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Roster

Everyone should post before a hammer, but other than that I'm fine with a short day. We already have 70 pages of material to work with, and anything from roster's buddies will just be wifom now.

ISO Persivul -- ctrl-f "ros" -- this is the

very first time

roster shows up.

I'm far from done with cross-checking things.

[davesaz]

VOTE: rooster

shitty scumhammer was shit

Looking at Fuscosco for roster mentions, most of them are rooster instead. Probably a playstyle thing but obfuscation is also a small possibility.

Being first on the wagon here, and ostentatiously so. Possibly pre-empting the discussion on the hammer, for distancing. And he makes an explicit reference to being first, later in the ISO.

[davesaz]

At the risk of pointing out the obvious there was definately at least 2 scum on that PP wagon.

Scanning roster for pp. Roster for persivul and roster for fuscosco on deck. Goal is to compare the nature of those references.

[davesaz]

Eh, roster->anyone is practically useless. Moving on.

[davesaz]

More votes on Persi please!

Why?

Penguin->Persivul looks a little sus. Though I just remembered that I also need to scan for "perc".

[davesaz]

VOTE: Percy

^
I didn't do that

Elephant, why am I voting Percy again? Because he was the leading wagon and that just made me look bad.

This sequence is pretty bad IMO.

[davesaz]

Here is Penguin->Fuscosco.

Kindly go fuck yourself with a hose and then give yourself the colonoscopy you need to come back to this with the sticks and pine needle out.

Seems a bit unnecessary.

Anyone south of nulltown.

Seems oddly specific?

Why nulltown and not nullnull?

this can only be a meta thing, cuz I would have bitched about how pointless this wagon's info would be.

Um...I'm not you?

I was never here

but you were

Why quote this but not the post prior?

Why are you town PP? Like its time to play. idk why you responded to the wagon at all if you werent prepared to engage.

Uh...I didn't respond to the wagon. I caught up with the thread.

lulz if you think I'm going to provide a case on myself much less anyone else.

I don't do reads lists unless Vedith is in the game and they are rainbow in color.

I like Duck and you. I don't like Fuscosco or Chemist.

Creature is probably town.

This is where I'm at.

issue with that is that you outed first.

What's the issue with that?

issue with that is that you outed first.

What's the issue with that?

chen has waaaay more town credit than rooster for claiming first.

they also are just townier?

? That's kinda my point...

The increased amount of interaction and general tone of these makes me lean toward Fuscosco being more likely non-partner. It strikes me more like mafia trying to sort town vs wolf, not a partner interaction.

This is why we don't focus strictly on VCA.

[davesaz]

point being?

[davesaz]

Grr, neither of you are doing what I would need in order to be more sure of this.
Obviously I can't come right out and say what that is, or you'll both do it and we'll be no better off.

[davesaz]

Titus using

only vca

feels scum. I expect to see cases, moonlogic, etc from town Titus. There is a heavy burden of proficiency and it's not being met in this game.

I saw something in that wall. You mentioned me being alive because I hard SR Titus. I don't remember seeing if chennisden or you had a strong preference between Fuscosco / Titus prior to night. Analyzing who survives and why can be helpful. Would we expect either of these players to roll the dice on WIFOMing that or would they play it straight?

[davesaz]

Wait, deadline was that close? I didn't know.

[davesaz]

Don't think I've seen mafia with the highest post count, even surpassing a hydra. Though I don't try to memorize that kind of stuff so it might be more common than I'm thinking.

[davesaz]

Best guess: at least one of those kills was intended to be town because the wolf in question was doing a pretty good job of looking townie.

[davesaz]

I'm not so sure one game's result is enough to even balance from.
Might be better to have several runs before tinkering.