Gameshow Mafia (Reroll): Game Over

[BNL]

Vote Count 5.2.4

chennisden, MariaR, NanceFloor, RadiantCowbells, Skygazer, Succinct, Titus

(3): chennisden, NanceFloor, MariaR

0verki11, chennisden, MariaR, Moongrass, Succinct, Time Devil, Titus

(2): Moongrass, Titus

chennisden, MariaR, RadiantCowbells, Skygazer, Succinct, Time Devil, Titus

(1): Time Devil

Not Voting (6): RadiantCowbells, Succinct, Creature, Skygazer, Chemist1422, 0verki11

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to select a coalition of 7.

The deadline for choosing a coalition is 2 June 4:30am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2019-06-02 04:30:00)

Mod notes:

[NanceFloor]

Dance / Vengeful accomplish the sameish things, so I'm putting them together. I think this is the best choice for today, probably.

Now, here's why this whole conversation is stupid and Vengeful eclipses Dance

. If we pick Dance, the benefit is we get to pick two players to kill. The most likely result is we lynch 2 LHF, one of the scum probably ends up with TMCK who ya'll have publicly declared immune to lynch, and generally scum get to control the narrative. It does let us kill two players without a night kill, which basically makes it close to straight up better than Veto at this stage in the game, so there's that. However, let's look at Vengeful.

Vengeful, if we lynch town, we/they get to pick a second shot. Essentially, still two dead people with control of town and no night kill, just like 8ball but actually safer. So it accomplishes the same as Dance, with the benefit that we control the two people we kill, scum doesn't. Dance is narrative building from scum, they hold the cards, whereas with Vengeful we do. Keep in mind 3 scum 12 lynchable town (there's an IC) makes it mathematically not likely to hit scum, so the most probable outcome is 1-2 dead town. If we lynch scum, they kill TMCK. I don't get why you're all acting like that's a bad thing. If we lynch scum, that means we have now killed

2 scum and only 1 town

. Its literally fucking 12:2, *and* we still have a bunch of cool shit

. Quiz is free at that point as it makes another IC; scum literally do not have the numbers to put up a scum to get the 3 night kills. I illustrated this above. So, we create another IC (this time with bulletproof!) along with a lynch, and then there's still coalition / veto to clean up coalition / 1of4 to find the last scum / reveal to create

another

IC / etc. If we lynch scum today we close to auto win in this setup. Ank said this is the same as a lynch if we hit scum; yes, it is, and lynching scum auto wins with these numbers in this setup with even a *little* bit of skill. Lynching scum with

Dance accomplishes the same thing, which is why I still think its the second best option, but vengeful's utility eclipses it

.

Does that make sense? If eli7 wasn't good enough I can eli5 it.

Vengeful:
If a majority is not achieved by deadline, the power is forfeited, and the Mafia may kill that Night.

If a town player is eliminated and the Mafia control 50% of the votes, the Mafia immediately win and the eliminated townie does not get a vengekill.

This is my major problem with this. I don’t believe for one second, an experienced player like Mbaki, seriously didn’t realize how extremely anti-town, vengeful truly was. He had to know that with anymore than 1 scum in the game, venge is blatantly pro-scum.

[NanceFloor]

That's why NL is optimal.

No, because the game could be as easy as oka bef or ank clem or chem creature, that's why lynching a lhf is better than no lynching

Why would any competent scumteam pair themselves?

You don’t seriously believe that scum decided to pair 2 scumslots together, do you?

That is extremely unlikely unless one of them is a deep wolf and I don’t see either Creature or Chemist qualifying for that, in this game

I think a deep wolf is pretty likely.

Titus, what changed for you between 3228 and 5796?

[Chemist1422]

That's why NL is optimal.

No, because the game could be as easy as oka bef or ank clem or chem creature, that's why lynching a lhf is better than no lynching

Why would any competent scumteam pair themselves?

You don’t seriously believe that scum decided to pair 2 scumslots together, do you?

That is extremely unlikely unless one of them is a deep wolf and I don’t see either Creature or Chemist qualifying for that, in this game

I think a deep wolf is pretty likely.

Titus, what changed for you between 3228 and 5796?

Thing I’d note is that it’s not a direct contradiction

[NanceFloor]

chemist why haven't you attempted one of your coolio catch up thingies

- dann

[Chemist1422]

chemist why haven't you attempted one of your coolio catch up thingies

- dann

because finals week

[Titus]

That's why NL is optimal.

No, because the game could be as easy as oka bef or ank clem or chem creature, that's why lynching a lhf is better than no lynching

Why would any competent scumteam pair themselves?

You don’t seriously believe that scum decided to pair 2 scumslots together, do you?

That is extremely unlikely unless one of them is a deep wolf and I don’t see either Creature or Chemist qualifying for that, in this game

I think a deep wolf is pretty likely.

Titus, what changed for you between 3228 and 5796?

Thing I’d note is that it’s not a direct contradiction

+1

[NanceFloor]

That's why NL is optimal.

No, because the game could be as easy as oka bef or ank clem or chem creature, that's why lynching a lhf is better than no lynching

Why would any competent scumteam pair themselves?

You don’t seriously believe that scum decided to pair 2 scumslots together, do you?

That is extremely unlikely unless one of them is a deep wolf and I don’t see either Creature or Chemist qualifying for that, in this game

I think a deep wolf is pretty likely.

Titus, what changed for you between 3228 and 5796?

Thing I’d note is that it’s not a direct contradiction

I asked her specifically what changed for her, I never said it was a contradiction.

[NanceFloor]

That's why NL is optimal.

No, because the game could be as easy as oka bef or ank clem or chem creature, that's why lynching a lhf is better than no lynching

Why would any competent scumteam pair themselves?

You don’t seriously believe that scum decided to pair 2 scumslots together, do you?

That is extremely unlikely unless one of them is a deep wolf and I don’t see either Creature or Chemist qualifying for that, in this game

I think a deep wolf is pretty likely.

Titus, what changed for you between 3228 and 5796?

Thing I’d note is that it’s not a direct contradiction

+1

This isn’t helpful at all since I was asking you a serious question. I wanted to know how you got to “no competent scumteam would” to Creature/Chemist could be SvS because of “deep wolf”, because I’m trying to understand what made you change your mind on that.

[Nancy Drew 39]

vengeful is overpowered in lylo situations. we're not blowing it now for an incremental advantage over dance.

i'm also fairly sure town you isn't stupid enough to realize how much equity it gives us to leave vengeful in the pool for endgame situations

trying to push vengeful here should be seen as a scumclaim for the record

.

This is why RC is locktown ftr.

[NanceFloor]

vengeful is overpowered in lylo situations. we're not blowing it now for an incremental advantage over dance.

i'm also fairly sure town you isn't stupid enough to realize how much equity it gives us to leave vengeful in the pool for endgame situations

trying to push vengeful here should be seen as a scumclaim for the record

.

This is why RC is locktown ftr.

[NanceFloor]

To reiterate: what’s confusing me about this is if no competent scumteam would pair two scums together, then doesn’t it make it far less likely that

both

Chemist/Creature could be scum here?

That I am very likely right and Titus’ theory about all 3 scum being in failed coalition, is highly improbable.

I also can’t see a world where either RC or Sky is ever scum here and I know I’m not. Especially now, that I’m having great trouble understanding how town!Maki ever hardpushes a power that could win scum the game in a single day.

[Titus]

vengeful is overpowered in lylo situations. we're not blowing it now for an incremental advantage over dance.

i'm also fairly sure town you isn't stupid enough to realize how much equity it gives us to leave vengeful in the pool for endgame situations

trying to push vengeful here should be seen as a scumclaim for the record

.

This is why RC is locktown ftr.

Town cannot use venge in lylo. That's part of why RC isn't lock clear.

[Titus]

To reiterate: what’s confusing me about this is if no competent scumteam would pair two scums together, then doesn’t it make it far less likely that

both

Chemist/Creature could be scum here?

That I am very likely right and Titus’ theory about all 3 scum being in failed coalition, is highly improbable.

I also can’t see a world where either RC or Sky is ever scum here and I know I’m not. Especially now, that I’m having great trouble understanding how town!Maki ever hardpushes a power that could win scum the game in a single day.

I can see a world where RC scum does things and just diverts from the pair. I don't think it's likely, even assume RC scum. RC may not even be scum.

Right now, you really feel like the person who protests to much and does strawmen.

If you gave nothing to hide, why not sheep my coalition?

[NanceFloor]

vengeful is overpowered in lylo situations. we're not blowing it now for an incremental advantage over dance.

i'm also fairly sure town you isn't stupid enough to realize how much equity it gives us to leave vengeful in the pool for endgame situations

trying to push vengeful here should be seen as a scumclaim for the record

.

This is why RC is locktown ftr.

Town cannot use venge in lylo. That's part of why RC isn't lock clear.

Where does it state that?

[NanceFloor]

To reiterate: what’s confusing me about this is if no competent scumteam would pair two scums together, then doesn’t it make it far less likely that

both

Chemist/Creature could be scum here?

That I am very likely right and Titus’ theory about all 3 scum being in failed coalition, is highly improbable.

I also can’t see a world where either RC or Sky is ever scum here and I know I’m not. Especially now, that I’m having great trouble understanding how town!Maki ever hardpushes a power that could win scum the game in a single day.

I can see a world where RC scum does things and just diverts from the pair. I don't think it's likely, even assume RC scum. RC may not even be scum.

Right now, you really feel like the person who protests to much and does strawmen.

If you gave nothing to hide, why not sheep my coalition?

Why haven’t YOU answered my question yet about your change of heart about scum being in the same pairing?

The answer should be blatantly obvious to you.

I obviously don’t think it highly likely and neither did you earlier so again, I want to know what made you change your mind on that?

Why aren’t you answering, considering how extremely relevant that is to your theory about 3 scum in failed coalition?

[Titus]

From the setup faq

Vengeful:
If a majority is not achieved by deadline, the power is forfeited, and the Mafia may kill that Night.
If a town player is eliminated and the Mafia control 50% of the votes, the Mafia immediately win and the eliminated townie does not get a vengekill.

[Titus]

Why haven’t YOU answered my question yet about your change of heart about scum being in the same pairing?

The answer should be blatantly obvious to you.

I obviously don’t think it highly likely and neither did you earlier so again, I want to know what made you change your mind on that?

Why aren’t you answering, considering how extremely relevant that is to your theory about 3 scum in failed coalition?

It's not. I never changed my read. I just don't lock town the same people you do.

It's easy to create multiple viable teams with assuming matching.

[Titus]

If you have nothing to hide, why not prove scum exist outside the first coalition? Is it because you know outside is clean?

[Nancy Drew 39]

Why haven’t YOU answered my question yet about your change of heart about scum being in the same pairing?

The answer should be blatantly obvious to you.

I obviously don’t think it highly likely and neither did you earlier so again, I want to know what made you change your mind on that?

Why aren’t you answering, considering how extremely relevant that is to your theory about 3 scum in failed coalition?

It's not. I never changed my read. I just don't lock town the same people you do.

It's easy to create multiple viable teams with assuming matching.

No, I mean why I’m not sheeping your coalition, because I don’t believe 3 scum in failed coalition, which is why I’m trying to understand why any competent scumteam would pair Chemist/Creature scum together.

They could have easily been lynched over Oka/BEF and your theory would imply that scum would have taken that risk despite that.

Also, Moon is super enthusiastic about it - too enthusiastic, which definitely concerns me as well.

[NanceFloor]

Why haven’t YOU answered my question yet about your change of heart about scum being in the same pairing?

The answer should be blatantly obvious to you.

I obviously don’t think it highly likely and neither did you earlier so again, I want to know what made you change your mind on that?

Why aren’t you answering, considering how extremely relevant that is to your theory about 3 scum in failed coalition?

It's not. I never changed my read. I just don't lock town the same people you do.

It's easy to create multiple viable teams with assuming matching.

No, I mean why I’m not sheeping your coalition, because I don’t believe 3 scum in failed coalition, which is why I’m trying to understand why any competent scumteam would pair Chemist/Creature scum together.

They could have easily been lynched over Oka/BEF and your theory would imply that scum would have taken that risk despite that.

Also, Moon is super enthusiastic about it - too enthusiastic, which definitely concerns me as well.

[Titus]

If you have nothing to hide, why not prove scum exist outside the first coalition? Is it because you know outside is clean?

Merely trying to paint Moongrass as scummy for agreeing with logic makes no sense. Why would scum moongrass want to confirm scum over here?

[Titus]

The truth is, NanceFloor is probably just scum or captured. Too tired to sort which.

[NanceFloor]

The truth is, NanceFloor is probably just scum or captured. Too tired to sort which.

100% nope to the former and I don’t understand the latter.

Why are you continuing to speculate on me rather than answer my goddamned question?

Calling me scum because I’m trying to understand your 180 on your position on Creature/Chemist is not remotely scumly, unless you consider not having had a lobotomy a scumclaim?

And anyone who knows a damned thing about me knows that throwing absurd shade at me for no logical reason whatsoever is a really suboptimal method of convincing me to do anything.

If you were not inexplicably misconstruing my question for God even knows what reasons, you would clearly not need a building to fall on you to understand that I am trying to make some sense of that.

But go ahead, keep calling me scum for no reason whatsoever than actually trying to bother answering my question, because that’s really going to convince me of anything.

[NanceFloor]

If you have nothing to hide, why not prove scum exist outside the first coalition? Is it because you know outside is clean?

No, because I strongly suspect it isn’t. I think your coalition is doomed to fail, because I think at least 1 but more likely 2/3 remaning scums are on it, so I would rather not waste it strongly believing it will fail, rather than using it to actually try to win.

If you strenuously object to my vote, I am not opposed to RC’s blind coalition which like Succinct, I much prefer to yours.

And ftr, you were also convinced on both BEF and Clemency scum, weren’t you? So, I’m not sheeping your reads this game.