open 759: house party (compleded)
- Golden RASpberry
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Golden RASpberry
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Golden RASpberry Goon
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CheekyTeeky, Fuscoco, Nancy, RedPanda & Skygazer are all town.
EAF, Uncle Bob (and Titus) are scum.
Part I: EAF’s ApproachHis early game posting is focused on setup and mechanics as opposed to actual tells. There’s little content in his ISO, and he hasn’t outed any reads outside of his weak Titus read. He’s shown no evidence he’s trying to sort anyone this game, and a lot of his posting is giving me the impression he’s trying to get town-read. There was some distancing made between EAF and Titus, however this read is largely Duck-lead, so he’d be much better off explaining that than me.
There’s a switch that flipped on this slot between late-day-1 and day-2, and it has nothing to do with his activity. He lost a lot of focus after the party mechanic was resolved. The timing of it leads me to believe that this is because he was added to the party list. There’s an undertone to his most recent posting, but it’s not something I’d be great at explaining.
Part II: Uncle Bob’s ApproachThere are a lot of questions in his ISO despite how short it is, and none of them are giving me the impression he’s trying to scum-hunt. There’s no evidence that any answers to his questions changed his stance on anything. He never followed through on any of the questions he asked which is giving me the impression he threw those questions out there just for show.
We also believe that Titus is the third scum, but most of it is based on flimsy reasoning, and something we’d rather not go into right now.- Golden RASpberry
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i'd actually strongly prefer EAF here by quite a margin. he's the wolf in the party (outside wildcard is probably duppin fmpov) which means he's default in a deepwolf position. i appreciate that this means he can be mechanically Xychotomied later but we have been blitzing really hard about this read and he's literally just not aligned with the town from our perspective.
we're pretty confident that UB flips red as well but it has substantially less game advancement. the other thing is we're dealing with a famously good/persuasive mafia player here. due respect but if we lynch ub regardless of his flip i feel a lot less confident about town reconverging on the EAF flip.
at risk of sounding arrogant: if we die tonight, we are happy dying for an EAF flip. even if UB flips red, swapping us for them ins't a move that advances the gamestate very proactively.- Golden RASpberry
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we haven't really talked about being added to the party a lot, that's not really something that's firmly on our radar.
but we do want to lynch foe. put it this way: he's less of a deepwolf, and more of a scum power role. he can shoot townies which other scum can't shoot. i'm not interested in trying to lynch the deepwolf day one but i am very interested in removing a scum power role from the game.
i think our nk equity is huge so at a technical mechanical level yes, i think adding us to the party is beneficial. but realistically it't not as meaningful as lynching EAF.
fusco, i'm wondering if it would be better for us to tee some time up to compare notes on EAF? i want to have better gauge of where your townread is coming from.- Golden RASpberry
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i think his presence is more ~energised~ here than it is as scum, and he's not pushing an agenda. he's approaching this with earnest curiosity and parsing information etc. blah blah.
his reaction to the suggestion to add me to the wagon had a lot of genuineness to it. i like the fact he initially resisted but then did a double-take so we could resume and compare notes when he has more time. i think that's pro-solve, where scum!fusco would be in a sound position to 1) refute our right to be in the party on the basis of policy, and 2) cash in his d1/party towncred to push back against us.
we're kinda working through slots one at a time and fusco was one of my weaker reads but RAS pretty emphatically agrees with it. i'm not sure we're prepared to towncase Fusco this but we feel strongly about it. do you scumread him?- Golden RASpberry
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i think i get your reservation.
town felt strongly about the 4p towncore d1 from what i've seen
if it is all town, the correct scum move is to charge in here and force a lynch in there and/or addition of scum players to remove the extreme townsidedness of it
from that perspective i probably don't think we ***have to*** be added, despite the fact i think it is beneficial. if we do lynch EAF i'd strongly recommend adding 1-2 townies to it tho- Golden RASpberry
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yeah, that's part of why we felt the urgency to voice our scumreads pretty expressly.
sorry to be so contrarian but i'd actually disagree with your point about not wanting to lynch within the party. have a think about my power role analogy earlier; town party members are conditional reflexive cops. scum party members are conditional roleblockers on that ability.
gonna sound a little lamisty for a sec but yolo. party members aren't towncore. they are the games 'power roles'. it's pretty important that they're held to a higher standard of sorting than people outside the party. and in summary i think EAF has been playing to get into the party and outside of that he's been coasting; there hasn't been a lot of accountability on that slot and i think it's really very dangerous.- Golden RASpberry
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I mean the partywolf only gets stronger as the game goes on; so if not yet, then when?In post 2072, Inbred Lannisters wrote:My other heads have also marked EAF as the most probable deepwolf in the party earlier, but I'm not sure I'd want to lynch in party yet.
if you wait for them to guilty themselves via shooting within the wagon, you'll be waiting a long time and they will only ever do that when advantageous to them. So striking while the iron is hot appeals to me a lot.
@Cheeky, RAS is like 100% town on Skygazer. I think her posting has improved a lot since I tortured her for playing her scum meta. i know her reads have gone from being pretty against the grain to fairly mainstream, but I think they've been well justified and I've enjoyed seeing her form them in realtime. her against the grain reads didn't make a whole lotta sense imo- Golden RASpberry
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we lynch to clear scum from one group.In post 2074, Fuscosco wrote:
nah, they get weaker because they cant kill without outing.In post 2073, Golden RASpberry wrote:I mean the partywolf only gets stronger as the game goes on; so if not yet, then when?
from our point of view the scum in the party is obvious. there are two scum off-party. once the on-party scum is dead the party becomes powerful
if we lynch for scum off-party we also leave the people within the party (our towncore) exposed to scum NKs and the people outside (the lynchpool) bp. that's like the opposite of what we want.- Golden RASpberry
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This was exactly what I was thinking when I was that post, lol. Titus is scumsiding.In post 2099, Inbred Lannisters wrote:A “move”? Like perhaps confitowning tw by killing him? Because whether you realize it or not, that is precisely what your resistance to adding him, will probably accomplish.- Golden RASpberry
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Scum never shoots within the party there. Doing so great a trichotomy (3 slots containing 1 scum) including a played they likely perceive as hard to catch given they're townread enough to be in the party n1.In post 2101, duppin wrote:
Given the NK happened outside I'm not sure I like this plan.In post 2097, CheekyTeeky wrote:
Iirc fus is of the opinion that if we lynch from the party then it should be ok to add to it. Since we're lynching EAF we could add TW depending on people being on board with the lynch.In post 2091, duppin wrote:However with that said I definitely agree with Fus' concern. As of right now I would also not be willing to put TW's slot in the party
I think the main concern is that the party needs to stay small to be of any use.
And seeing as we have to put someone in the party before we lynch someone I am slightly concerned about replacing players. Hm. I think at this point I'd just like to hear from EAF.
I appreciate that it's tempting to focus outside the party until there is evidence of scum within the party. But in practice there are only 3 scum slots vs. 11 town slots. We should just lynch to hit scum.- Golden RASpberry
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Wow this game is like a broken record at times.In post 2102, CheekyTeeky wrote:Wow this game is like a broken record at times.- Golden RASpberry
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Yeah, for sure.In post 2119, duppin wrote:
I do like the idea of just lynching scumreads yes, but I am not currently scumreading EAF. He has dropped off a lot this day that much is definitely true. But I would to hear from him first before I ever agree to any of thisIn post 2116, Golden RASpberry wrote:EAF doesn't flip town. I understand you want to take it easy, but forcing us to lynch within certain sets of players gives the scumteam an advantage. We lynch to hit scum.
If you're not sold on scum him after he checks in could I challenge you to write up like just a paragraph or two on why he's town fypov? I don't see the townreads there, but I accept there were very likely townies who had the read.- Golden RASpberry
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In post 2139, Quest wrote:In post 2137, Inbred Lannisters wrote:After RAS joins the hydra, this turns into... a 100% confident read? Which would make slightly more sense to me if it was largely RAS-led, but RAS mentions that the read was Duck-led. The progression looks icky.
The EAF & Titus distancing read is what’s Duck-lead, not the whole EAF read itself.
In post 2137, Inbred Lannisters wrote:Further, your slot’s cases on EAF and Uncle Bob lack the oomph that I’d expect. The EAF-Titus associations can be explained by the fact that Titus is one of the only players EAF has had a lot of experience (even IRL) with; and the second half of your case is on the basis that he’s lurking today - which he admitted himself and that he’d post more later.
There are reasons for the lack of “oomph“, but none of those reasons are things that really need to be said in this game.
That said, the case on EAF has nothing with his lack of activity nor do I think he's lurking purposefully. There's a change of behavior after he was added to the party, and a quick skim through his ISO should make that clear.
There’s a reason I condensed my case. I go specific when I need to, and I didn’t feel the need to go in-depth with my thoughts in my opening post.In post 2137, Inbred Lannisters wrote:Actually reading Uncle Bob’s ISO doesn’t make me go “ahh, the case is totally convincing”: there are just 24 posts with a few questions. Am I wrong that RAS goes really specific in his cases?
You're not wrong, I can be specific. But I took this approach because I didn’t think either cases needed much explaining. There's a severe lack of any real solving and scum-hunting in both of their ISO’s, and it's not something that’s difficult to spot.- Golden RASpberry
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In post 2141, Inbred Lannisters wrote:Yes, there is a behavioural change in those posts but: I feel like it’s not entirely scum-indicative, rather just a lack of real involvement - which is what I mean by activity.
Duck & I both disagree with this pretty heavily and neither of us think it’s linked to activity. He was playing to get town-read, and once his goal of getting into the party was accomplished, the behavior change occurred. I don't think that’s a coincidence.
In post 2141, Inbred Lannisters wrote:Agree but also factor in that in EAF’s case, he was playing in a looser, relaxed style + did scum-hunt and sort to a reasonable extent post D1 heal. And in Uncle Bob’s case there’s a lack of significant posting in the first place - agree that whatever content is there is bad, but since the case is largely based upon a lack of expected town-behaviour, I think there’s a higher sample size required to make an accurate judgment. How does this slot fare against, say, PenguinPower and Yumeko Jabami?
I’m confident on my solve being 3/3.
I’m not overly concerned by both PP; who Duck town-reads, and Yumeko; who I town-read. I should add that I town-read duppin too, but that’s a more recent read. Liked 2115, 2119 & 2123.- Golden RASpberry
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There's a behavior change between before and after the party members were decided yesterday, yes.In post 2145, Inbred Lannisters wrote:So you're bundling Edgar's posts between {D1 heal deadline} and {D1 lynch deadline} too, right from 675 where he prompts us to begin discussing reads, posts a town reads list (653), explaining reads and trying to understand others'.
Right now I'm not seeing a major scum-indicative behaviour change but yeah, I'll give it a more careful read.
That said, I wouldn't put so much focus on the behavior change by itself. There are other things from that slot that are bothersome; lack of game solving, lack of scum-hunting, needless filler and a weird undertone.- Golden RASpberry
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Just to clarify: that middle null tier was explicitly not tiered or layered. I hadn't even started looking at EAF seriously, I'd just seen a few of his posts out of the corner of my eye and not really been sure how to take him. When I did start reading him, his activity concerned me. It wasn't a very good read in that all I'd done was flicked through some parts of the thread and gone "oh maybe this guy is evil". When I read his ISO a lot of his posting concerned me. I invited RAS to tag team this and he promptly agreed that EAF is very likely scum. It usually takes a lot for me to scumcase virtually anyone; if you need more oomph I'm happy to talk to you about it. Imo your perceived issues with my trajectory are down to a lot of semantics and misconceptions about my posting, I hope this clears it up a bit.In post 2137, Inbred Lannisters wrote:You've not been really committed to an EAF read: your spoilered progression shows him starting at null-town, and then multiple statements that you're not really sure what to read on EAF, needing him to "start playing". You mention then in 1926 that he looks like he was merely intending to get into the party, and that it's not a great read.
After RAS joins the hydra, this turns into... a 100% confident read? Which would make slightly more sense to me if it was largely RAS-led, but RAS mentions that the read was Duck-led. The progression looks icky. What happened to your Duppin read?
On the contrary I'd challenge you back: this guy was townread enough to get into the party d1. Yet nobody can give me a reason they think he's town. I appreciate that it randed but it had four votes. If you can tell me why you tangibly disagree with my read or why you think he's town I think we can crack this open a bit faster.
Wrt duppin: as I've said pretty conspicuously I had him as a maybe?wolf read after I caught him hard defending Skygazer for the lols. I'm gonna get rsi if I have to explain this every 5 pages but: he struck me as icky, but someone I needed to spend more time sorting. Just not someone I wanted to forget about. You'll notice that all 3 people I currently scumread were in that "people I haven't looked at" pile. It's kind of inevitable that when I have stronger scumreads, players are gonna move up.
For the record I didn't actually townread duppin until his v. v recent posting but I think there's some serious naivete and paranoia which rings fairly townie, so I've gone off my read there. To an extent I also see that you guys had some serious synergy d1 and I miiiiight trust you to have that right just a tiny bit- Golden RASpberry
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Should we have to write a 50k word post to get scum lynched? Could you reread that ISO and see if you can find some town motivation in it (if you come back and say "he's asking questions to advance the game" I'll steal your bread btw). There's a lot of townies in this game. Throw me a tiered read list?In post 2137, Inbred Lannisters wrote:Actually reading Uncle Bob's ISO doesn't make me go "ahh, the case is totally convincing": there are just 24 posts with a few questions. Am I wrong that RAS goes really specific in his cases?- Golden RASpberry
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!!!In post 2141, Inbred Lannisters wrote:Agree but also factor in that in EAF's case, he was playing in a looser, relaxed style + did scum-hunt and sort to a reasonable extent post D1 heal.
Qualify this for me please?- Golden RASpberry
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Note he posted roughly as actively, just asking a lot of questions and fluffing a lot more. Is fluffing AI? No. But your defence isn't consistent with his ISO. :/ I get that you don't want to sheep but could you please have another critical read? The second half of his d1 is entirely pocketing...In post 2141, Inbred Lannisters wrote:Yes, there is a behavioural change in those posts but: I feel like it's not entirely scum-indicative, rather just a lack of real involvement - which is what I mean by activity.- Golden RASpberry
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I talked a bit about this. If you have massive concerns with our slot, lynch EAF and add someone else to the party. We're not married to being in the party. We're married to lynching the scum in the party.In post 2165, Inbred Lannisters wrote:The "oomph" thing was exclusive to RAS' cases.
It's not that I don't want to be a sheep, but lynching within the party gives me reservation - and I want to be absolutely sure that this isn't scumplay from you.- Golden RASpberry
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Amount of content =/= town. Have a think about his reads in the context of his ISO. I spent some time ranting to RAS about how wolfy I found his read list.In post 2165, Inbred Lannisters wrote:He already stated he was relaxing his usual style this game.
His post-heal D1 play contains reads-lists, explanations for some of the reads - which was arguably more than other slots you townread, IMO.- Golden RASpberry
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Throw me a tiered readlist or talk to me if you want to calibrate a bit. I think EAF is really poignantly scummy.
Wrt Titus/Bob--I don't have a % confidence but I'm comfortable looking at each other slot at some level of towniness. From IL as intensely obvtown to probably Penguin/anime person as my personal weakest townreads.
So via POE, >80% confidence. Any green flips in {EAL, Titus, Bob} will legitimately surprise me.- Golden RASpberry
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No thanks.In post 2173, RedPanda wrote:I would recommend that you don't try to push a lynch within the party. Let's lynch outside and find who's more accurate with the flip and then even if we're both dead, people can reread and use our reads to help them.
We're lynching EAF today. We don't care that he's in the party. This notion that people should/shouldn't be lynched because they're in/out of the party is stupid and all it does is narrow down our options.- Golden RASpberry
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For the record this is where we're at. You've spoken about being a townhunting-heavy player which is convenient, because I am too. I think your townreads are probably mostly correct i.e. {IBL, Fus, us, skyg, cheeky}.In post 2176, RedPanda wrote:In party
IBL
EAF
FUS
Duppin
TW
Skygazer
Cheeky
Titus
Bob
Yumeko
Penguin
My yumeko read is only above penguin because kirari townread her. Maybe she saw something I missed.
I've just been having a quick look through your ISO and from what I can tell:
1) The Yumeko read is due to a change in posting levels from a previous game / because she feels lacklustre. She's not high in my townpile either, but I actually don't mind her posting.
2) From what I can tell you're not gleaning a lot from PenguinPower's posts; are you looking for a toneread there? It's pretty hard to get a confident toneread on Penguin as either alignment unless he posts pretty frantically.
I think that you've more or less got the clear townies worked out, but the pile which contains 2-3 scum of {Titus, Bob, Yumeko, Penguin} is probably closer to containing 4 nullreads/"not townreads" rather than two nulls and two scum. Do you think that's fair?
wrt EAF, I think that's the read I want to talk to you about the most. Going by your 1101, you townread him but it appears to already be an established read. I've had a quick look through your ISO and I won't quote every time you've said Edgar or EAF or anything, but I'm not really sure how you came to the read.
Would you mind giving a quick summary (maybe like a couple of sentences or half a paragraph or something) on why you think his approach to the game is town indicative? For reference, our synopsis on why he's scum:
We need the EAF lynch to go through, because he is scum.In post 2053, Golden RASpberry wrote:Part I: EAF’s ApproachHis early game posting is focused on setup and mechanics as opposed to actual tells. There’s little content in his ISO, and he hasn’t outed any reads outside of his weak Titus read. He’s shown no evidence he’s trying to sort anyone this game, and a lot of his posting is giving me the impression he’s trying to get town-read. There was some distancing made between EAF and Titus, however this read is largely Duck-lead, so he’d be much better off explaining that than me.
There’s a switch that flipped on this slot between late-day-1 and day-2, and it has nothing to do with his activity. He lost a lot of focus after the party mechanic was resolved. The timing of it leads me to believe that this is because he was added to the party list. There’s an undertone to his most recent posting, but it’s not something I’d be great at explaining.
I respect the townhunting approach but I think you might be making a mistake, and I'd like to get a bit more on your thought process.- Golden RASpberry
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ohshitfucksorryIn post 2191, Skygazer wrote:watch ur profanity ):- Golden RASpberry
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^ where I'm at tbhIn post 2192, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:While Joff can possibly see 2187 as reaction testing, I can’t recall a comparable post like that in the history of mafia, ever coming from town.- Golden RASpberry
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In post 2150, schadd_ wrote:with 12 alive, it takes 7 to choose a group. the group phase ends june 20th at 22:40 central US time; in 10 days, 1 hour, 13 minuteshi schadd_
is this accurate or does the party phase end 7 days earlier? /this is the final day deadline?- Golden RASpberry
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also obligatory
arrgghh noouuuu
- Golden RASpberry
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Yeah, that'd be great. Casing him outright would be super boring. I'd rather a conversation. For what it's worth I agree with you about townhunting but don't think PP's style is "antitown".. It's effective, and I'd call his towngame somewhat better than his scumgame. I understand that it's difficult to gauge at first if you're used to different styles and tonalities, but he's definitely a solid town player.
(pocketing irl sry penguin)- Golden RASpberry
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Sorry, but we will be pushing our strongest scumread. If you want to case a slot outside the wagon so we can jam about it a bit more I'm down for that. But EAF is scum. The fact he's in the party isn't a meaningful point against lynching him.In post 2208, RedPanda wrote:Also lynching in the pool with two scum is better than lynching in the pool with 1 because it's not even guaranteed that the pool has one scum. Let there be a kill in the party before we even attempt to lynch.
At rand, allowing there's a 25% chance of hitting the scum in the party. At rand, there is a 25% chance of hitting the scum outside the party.
With reads taken into account (IL and Fusco are absolutely town; duppin is very very likely town; EAF is explicitly wolfy) we are 100% likely to hit scum by lynching EAF. Doing this makes the party relevant.
Please understand not lynching semi-caught, clearly-scum slots on the proviso that they may be soft guiltied later in the game via a death occurring in the party (this puts them in a trichotomy (1/3 slots have to be scum)), is not a high town ev strategy.
I get where you're coming from, but defending EAF mechanically in advance of reconsidering your reads won't help us. Both of our heads think you're town. We need you to have an open mind.- Golden RASpberry
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After this I think so, yeah. Despite the fact the tone of this is outright defeated there are a couple of scum indications within this post as well. Nancy kinda mentioned it but this post never comes from town.In post 2187, Edgar Allan Foe wrote:I mean shit man, minus the fact that I know it's wrong by nature of my role PM that's a pretty convincing case? Fuck, I'd vote me if I wasn't me, based on that case. I accept my lynch, unfortunate as it is. Seems my attempt sot change my playstyle to be less hyperactive just resulted in my stuff turning to shit. Apologies. At the very least let's replace me with Golden within the party, because there's ~0.0001% odds it flips scum.
Let me use the maximum amount of time available to put down plans for what happens when their solve ISN'T accurate and we have to re-calibrate.
And then I'll root? Rot? From the dead PT.- Golden RASpberry
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In post 2236, Quest wrote:Hello, {yumeko jabami, penguinpower, inbred lannisters, duppin}.
May I interest you in ending the game? If so, voteEAF.
Thanks.- Golden RASpberry
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Duck & I are confident that EAF & Titus are both scum, and their recent defeated posts only makes us even more confident of this. These "don't give a fuck" attitudes are coming out no where, and feel super unnatural. No one can read EAF's most recent post and tell me that that ever comes from town.
This game's not a hard solve, and because of this, we believe that lynching EAF today effectively ends the game now that we're in the party. There's a chance that scum might try to kill us the next night, even if it means one of them gets outed, but that doesn't change our stance at all.
I personally don't see a world where the scum-team isn't {EAF, Titus & Uncle Bob}. I've gone through the game several times, and my opinion of this only keeps getting stronger.- Golden RASpberry
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I'm actually more concerned about his loss of focus d1, personally. I can go into why I think his read list is scummy if that'll help you feel better. But he went from pushing things (his Titus read mainly) to asking people for their reads and kinda coasting to EOD; d2 he hasn't picked up the content. He promised to touch base and when he did it was an admission that our case is too good for him to survive.
Even if he believes that he's gonna be lynched no matter what he has two options right:
1) try to solve the game before he goes down (town wincon)
2) just die without spewing other scum (scum wincon)
he's doing #2. Points against solving; he called us nearly 100% town yet didn't heal us. he hasn't resumed any of his previously stated scumreads. he asked PP a few questions but he basically treated him likes he's town and never went back to trying to sort him
It's just not a townie interacting with the thread imo- Golden RASpberry
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