Micro 874: Generic Micro Normal (game OVER]

[Blake Belladonna]

I'm seeing mostly lose conditions unless we have a legitimate townmeld sometime today.

Town is far too scattered for me to be confident in the majority of scenarios even though I think my reads are likely correct.

[Blake Belladonna]

Yup.

That's why I'm kind of over this game.

[Blake Belladonna]

Did you explain how Blake and TDC are certainly SvT? I don't buy the confidence nor your progression onto TDC today which read completely opportunistic.

I think it's unlikely that scum!nom would push for TDC like that when it would be easy to take this same train after I am dead and people are far more likely to listen to my reads.

[Blake Belladonna]

And us two being a team is not sensical thanks to it being a very strange idea to try to quicklynch me before I even check into the thread. That's completely incongruent with her suddenly backing off when there was pretty universal support for lynching me until then.

[Blake Belladonna]

Saudade why is nom scum?

[Blake Belladonna]

Can you quote it for me Saudade?

[Blake Belladonna]

Did you explain how Blake and TDC are certainly SvT? I don't buy the confidence nor your progression onto TDC today which read completely opportunistic.

Fwiw, while I don't understand her strong desire for lynching me, I also don't see the motivation for scum-nom to do that. A bit of why-not-nk-wifom aside, what would stop her from lynching Blake-scum with us and just coasting through?

Well tbh the puzzle I'm seeing is that nom doesn't make sense with Blake but they're both trying to break up the town block since the game started. Nom's progression on you and away from blake was awful today. The reason they don't make sense together is that pushing you first outs them both as scum. If nom was scum then blake would've seen through her as town which means if it is tvs then blake is most likely to be scum.

I don't get how ank can be town in either scenario. But like there's something that's making me hesitate.

Is this why you mentioned before that I wasn't applying every player to the same standard?

[Blake Belladonna]

In addition, how certain are you that what we are trying to do is break up the townblock?

Please go into whether that makes sense from both TvS angles.

[Blake Belladonna]

And if both make sense, why can't it be TvT?

[Blake Belladonna]

Will lynching me put the game into perspective?

[Blake Belladonna]

Note how much sorting there is in LUVs catchup.

Literally none.

I don't know how I can make this game any more obvious, but if it takes realizing I'm town to realize it, then lynch me. I strongly doubt that there is a point this game where I stop being a paranoid scumread barring a TDC scumflip, and even then I am not confident in it.

Everything is laid out in my ISO. The scumteam is LUV + TDC. Minor chance of MJL, but I don't believe it's very likely. Everybody else is a distraction scumread.

[Blake Belladonna]

The hard defense of TDC is very cute too, I will say that much.

[Blake Belladonna]

I am not.

[Blake Belladonna]

If TDC flips town, then yeah the game is just over.

Although I will say ultimately the problem would be the exact same reason as Catloaves, except I happen to be the stubborn one instead this time.

[Blake Belladonna]

Also I liked the LUV catchup.

What did you like about it?

[Blake Belladonna]

Lalala.

[Blake Belladonna]

That sounds like frustrated town to me, Cheeky.

Erratic play when there is no direct cause for it is usually town.

[Blake Belladonna]

Is there a direct correlation to that?

Actually now that I think of it, has her lynch priority shifted throughout the day? She had it as TDC->Blake->idr recently, but you might actually be on to something if this wasn't the case before then.

[Blake Belladonna]

Holy shit, this wagon on me. Lol.

[Blake Belladonna]

Cheeky, look at those wagons.

That is absolutely disgusting.

[Blake Belladonna]

What the fuck guys?

[Blake Belladonna]

I apologize LUV, there is actually one scenario where you are not mafia.

TDC/MJL is where I'm leaning now, I think.

[Blake Belladonna]

Hey.

Guys.

Why have scum not hammered me yet? Is it because I'm scum, or that both scum are already on my wagon?

[Blake Belladonna]

MJL refusing to hammer TDC has strong partner equity, I think.

That's a bit too out of character.

[Blake Belladonna]

Thank fuck I don't have to deal with this game anymore.

[Blake Belladonna]

I don't think nom flips scum, sorry.

[Blake Belladonna]

I'll break some shit down here when I have some time.

[Blake Belladonna]

Just noting something for posterity.

The only way somebody off my wagon is scum is if I am also scum.

That means Saudade, your nomnomnom scumread makes no sense because she has no reason to not find an excuse to hammer me here, especially with me being her apparent second place lynch.

Everybody's Saudade scumreads only make sense when I am considered the partner, because a scum!Saudade has no reason to throw out that strong a townread on town!Blake and maintain it like he has. Not keeping that as a possibility puts him at risk in the scenario that all three of these other wagons are hard vetoed. He also has no reason to push nomnomnom like he has as scum, she had zero pressure at the time and he boxed himself into that tunnel. Nonsensical.

This means that lynching me is solid proof that my lynch pool was correct overall, because the knowledge that I am town is enough to restrict the amount of suspects to exactly three: Lil Uzi Vert, TDC, and MaryJoLisa.

This is pretty basic stuff. Assume that scum are at all competent (and if you believe that I am scum, trust that I am a competent enough planner to have an idea for how to play the days at least and can relay that over the night phase) and you can trust this to be true.

1. Assume I am scum. I have managed to find the sweet spot of suspects to hold on to and have managed to hold everybody else at bay long enough to reach this point with only my PoE truly scumreading me while everybody else is sorting. I've put in a ton of effort to set up a TDC lynch instead of whoever of Saudade/LUV is not my partner, both of which are easier to achieve lynches. I've taken a very difficult road as a scum that has been under pressure for the entire game and after having just provided a town flip.

2. Assume I am town. I've had scum in my sights since I replaced into the game ((Skitter/LUV) +(Deltawave/Creature) Das my very first set of reads, remember), I've constantly pushed my reads since replacing into the game, constantly keeping people aware of my lynch pool despite the amount of pushback I keep getting to it. And then when we get to day two? I stick to my guns and go out of my way to defend people who aren't in my lynch pool. My lynch pool are all tunneled on my slot and aren't willing to hop off.

Honestly, which situation feels more likely?

[Blake Belladonna]

I don't win scumgames by doing outrageous shit that likely won't actually work.

I, as well as most scum players, will take the simplest route that they can commit to. I will avoid throwing myself out in the middle of the game because there is no need to. Town will inevitably cause violence among themselves if I don't cause a ruckus, I just need to look good enough to not be the target of that ruckus.

You don't need to be a genius to know that this style works. A cursory kook at my scumgames show a that this is how I play scum.

Does that match my mindset in this game? I can say that there is very good odds nomnomnom does the same thanks to catloaves. Is she doing this?

[Blake Belladonna]

The problem is that I'm not as convinced of TDC anymore, nom. I still find it more likely than not, but there are scenarios I can see where he is not.

[Blake Belladonna]

You've done nothing but wiggle all day, TDC.

[Blake Belladonna]

UNVOTE: TDC

[Blake Belladonna]

Saudade, what are you seeing in nom?

[Blake Belladonna]

Saudade, what are you seeing in nom?

my reflection, in a game long ago

Anything else?

[Blake Belladonna]

VOTE: Lil Uzi Vert

[Blake Belladonna]

I am AtEing?

[Blake Belladonna]

Saudade, do you believe LUV is scum?

[Blake Belladonna]

I think nom+LUV is possible.

[Blake Belladonna]

I would still prefer LUV though, he has more total equity than any other slot I think.

[Blake Belladonna]

The town on my wagon is never going to unvote and I'm not turning away just so I don't get hammered, so there's really not much point for intent.

I'm just suddenly realizing that your play legitimately does make sense from a scum mindset all of a sudden.

[Blake Belladonna]

What is the context behind that question?

[Blake Belladonna]

She actually can't hammer here, Saudade. It's a disadvantage regardless of alignment.

I'm worrying a bit about the nervous laughter thing, though.

[Blake Belladonna]

Worrying as in I see it more likely being a scum move than a town move.

[Blake Belladonna]

VOTE: nomnomnom

[Blake Belladonna]

I am town.

Enjoy your Lylo.

[Blake Belladonna]

Good game.

All my thoughts are in the dead thread.

[Blake Belladonna]

You were reading this game? Why?

[Blake Belladonna]

Damn, Saudade.

Savage.

[Blake Belladonna]

definitely wasn't that the mod pinged me about the d1 situation, definitely was n>3 where n=#females

The one that resulted in the force replace?