Micro 877: Liars and Millers

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #425 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:25 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

I just do Cheeky and it helps me read the game in my own messed up way.
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Post Post #426 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:27 am

Post by Ircher »

So this is what my reads are having reread to :
Spoiler: Reads
Confirmed Town
(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town
(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town
(60%-84% Confidence)

Null
(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)
Pine (0%): He has like one post to this point, so it is really not possible to get read on him at the moment.

northsidegal (-3%): She has not posted enough for me to get a read.

Neutral
(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
CheekyTeeky (+45%): First of all, the flip in her claim regarding miller struck me (and continues to strike me) as town-indicative as I don't think scum have quite the guts to do that. Aside from that, CheekyTeeky's posts have a somewhat townie!vibe, and I think I'm okay with her contributions to the game so far.

AzoriusSenate (+40%): His read on Saudade feels like it's a genuine read coming from town.

the worst (+34%): It may be just because I'm inexperienced with the worst that I'm not scumreading him that much at this point. While like many of us, he was fooling around in the beginning in the game, later on, he seemed to switch to a more serious mode, and I think he is striking a good balance between having fun and working at solving the game.

Skygazer (-32%): Her posts seemed pretty nullish until I read . Considering I'm already scumreading OkaPoka, 199 just feels like scum attempting to give their buddy a free townread. It's very weak, yes, but it is something.

Saudade (-40%): Most of his early posts involve him fooling around with the worst and other people. While this is fine to the extent, when this seems to be the only thing one is doing, it becomes an issue. It's worth noting that despite a strong presence very early in the game, later on (in the 150-199 post range), he seems to kinda drift out of sight.

OkaPoka (-55%): A lot of his early postings (and many of his later ones as well) just feel like scum that is spending too much time on fitting on and not enough time on solving the game.

Leaning Scum
(60%-75% Confidence)
​​
Likely Scum
(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this reads list
Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates (and somewhat arbitrary) and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

I will maybe post my notes later if I feel like it/if asked. Some of those notes go into greater detail into the specific things I'm seeing.
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Post Post #427 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:27 am

Post by Ircher »

Also:
VOTE: OkaPoka
Start solving please and thank you.
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Post Post #428 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:28 am

Post by OkaPoka »

anyone of u browse /r/asoiaf

i have a pretty tinfoily theory that might work better now
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Post Post #429 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:28 am

Post by OkaPoka »

ircher ur not voting a miller

voting millers is optimal here
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Post Post #430 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:30 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 429, OkaPoka wrote:ircher ur not voting a miller

voting millers is optimal here
plenty of time to pressure non-millers. This post only serves to reinforce my read on you.
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Post Post #431 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:30 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

Now that's a tiered readslist. Why all the effort on formatting Ircher?
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Post Post #432 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:32 am

Post by Ircher »

It was zero effort formatting today; it's based off a template I have saved already. Also, I like colored lists.
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Post Post #433 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:32 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

Oh...I just remembered that I'm the cop that's why I did that Oka.
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Post Post #434 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:32 am

Post by OkaPoka »

yes we have plenty of time to waste

we should be lynching millers and it can be random for all i care

by wasting time on pushing me u make it more likely for scum to get away with not lynching a miller today

increasing their win%
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Post Post #435 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:32 am

Post by OkaPoka »

cheeky wtf
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Post Post #436 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:33 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

Don't CC me yet scum.
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Post Post #437 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:33 am

Post by OkaPoka »

nice meme i c u

lets vote nsg
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Post Post #438 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:34 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

Pressure voting doesn't work on NSG early.
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Post Post #439 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:35 am

Post by OkaPoka »

can u explain ur scumread on tw
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Post Post #440 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:36 am

Post by Ircher »

more Oka votes please.
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Post Post #441 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:38 am

Post by OkaPoka »

this is very dumb ircher

ur going to turn me into a tunneler very quickly
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Post Post #442 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:39 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

It's a meta read. TW is playing very different to any meta I have of him. He could be genuine about trying a new playstyle and maybe he's just starstruck but like how does he townread NSG straight off the bat?
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Post Post #443 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:40 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

In post 432, Ircher wrote:It was zero effort formatting today; it's based off a template I have saved already. Also, I like colored lists.
It seems rather unnecessary. Pretty but like distracting from the point that effectively all your reads are null.
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Post Post #444 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:42 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 443, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 432, Ircher wrote:It was zero effort formatting today; it's based off a template I have saved already. Also, I like colored lists.
It seems rather unnecessary. Pretty but like distracting from the point that effectively all your reads are null.
Did you read the second spoiler? That's not how my reads list works.
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Post Post #445 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:47 am

Post by the worst »

In post 428, OkaPoka wrote:anyone of u browse /r/asoiaf

i have a pretty tinfoily theory that might work better now
not atm (i need a break) but usually yea hmu
who's scum? i haven't read up yet but like, it's me
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Post Post #446 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:47 am

Post by the worst »

In post 429, OkaPoka wrote:ircher ur not voting a miller

voting millers is optimal here
two violations die chicken
who's scum? i haven't read up yet but like, it's me
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Post Post #447 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:50 am

Post by the worst »

Nsg doesn't starstrike me! I think I've hit a level of healthy but measured respect for her! ):

Cheeky you didn't need to claim, I already had you as silly town.
who's scum? i haven't read up yet but like, it's me
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Post Post #448 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:52 am

Post by Ircher »

Wait was Cheeky being serious about the claim?
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Post Post #449 (ISO) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:08 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

100%
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