Mini 2074: Madness at Port Arthur (Game Over)


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Post Post #1519 (isolation #0) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:06 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Good morning, I am replacing tris.

Do not end the day before I am caught up, please.
.
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Post Post #1521 (isolation #1) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:40 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I must say, this game's page one is remarkably interesting compared to most page one's I've ever seen.

I already have a moderate level scumread just from there.
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Post Post #1522 (isolation #2) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:12 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

VOTE: Persivul
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Post Post #1523 (isolation #3) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:28 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I'm only up to page 9, but I'm already at a confident scumread of Persivul.

1. His posting on the first few pages are all completely empty. Irrelephant got a lot of the initial backlash for how he entered the game, but his tone was consistently freeflowing and natural. Persivul's, in comparison, was noticeably held back, forced, and inconsistent. Nobody else in the game had an entrance like this, only Persivul.
2. and is his only attempt at trying to sort until page 9. This is exacerbated by how he referenced this progression in , which is evidence that he's specifically paying attention to how he looks in the game. This type of response is not natural otherwise, since Shiidaji had no indication that he wanted an explanation from why that progression happened. and follows a similar pattern. The way this progression happened and the way the initial post was phrased is not an attempt to sort, it's him throwing out a read for a reason that he clearly does not believe in. In addition, tris' response was dismissive enough that I'd expect some sort of follow up if he genuinely cared about it, but there was nothing afterwards.
3. Persivul's page 9 posting is not town. The first non-fluffy thing he posts on that page is , which is opportunistic in of itself. The way he follows up this push when Insomnia starts throwing his weight back onto Persivul is incredibly underwhelming, which is incongruent with the level of conviction he tried to show in that initial post.

Persivul is not trying to solve the game or get legitimate reads. He's trying to blend into the game. Persivul is not town.
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Post Post #1524 (isolation #4) » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:31 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

As a note.

Up to page nine, I have light to moderate townreads of Irrelephant11, Fuscezu, ceejayvinoya, RCEnigma (although this is a much more fragile read than the others), and insomnia.

I don't have any more time to read through the game as of right now, but I'm hoping that when I finish my readthrough tonight, I'll have a solid townblock to work from in order to find who the hopefully final scum is. I'm assuming there are two more scum alive at this point.
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Post Post #1526 (isolation #5) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:10 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

If you have a rebuttal for my case, then present it.
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Post Post #1528 (isolation #6) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:47 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1527, Persivul wrote:I will eventually for other people's sake, but I think you're already in a death tunnel. Consider:
In post 1523, Blake Belladonna wrote:This is exacerbated by how he referenced this progression in 48, which is evidence that he's specifically paying attention to how he looks in the game.
I offered rebuttals to charges against me in 48, and you spun it as scummy.
You responded to Shiidaji in a "it wasn't suspicious, look!" way, which is not a town way to respond. Your initial post made no indication that you were looking for an explanation, and the second post gave no indication that you were putting any thought into your read on him.

The fact that you garnished that post by saying that you hadn't checked the rules and probably should, yet had just accepted that answer in the first place is not a natural thought process.
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Post Post #1536 (isolation #7) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:01 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Why are you assuming that when we have two jailkeepers in the setup?
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Post Post #1539 (isolation #8) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:07 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

And what is your PoE?
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Post Post #1545 (isolation #9) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:25 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I appreciate you, Fusco.

I will return to reading through the game shortly.
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Post Post #1547 (isolation #10) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:28 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Persivul isn't town.
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Post Post #1551 (isolation #11) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:41 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

You'll have to quote that at me, because I don't understand where that even comes up.
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Post Post #1555 (isolation #12) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:53 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 988, Persivul wrote:
In post 985, Smile wrote: Have you played with relly before?
Yes, we had a pretty intense T/T game, and a little later we were S/S. My read on him is based largely on personal insight from those experiences.
?
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Post Post #1558 (isolation #13) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:59 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Insomnia is town.
Miss Kobayashi Maru (Succinct slot) is probably town too.
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Post Post #1562 (isolation #14) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:05 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Miss Kobayashi Maru pretty clearly has a solving type of mindset in this game, despite how little she was posting around that time in the game.

I want to say that RCEnigma has been as well, but I don't think it's been consistent enough that it can't be faked at this point.

I haven't seen that level of town transparency from any other slot except for insomnia up to page... around 14?
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Post Post #1571 (isolation #15) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:11 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Fuscezu is very likely town as well.
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Post Post #1574 (isolation #16) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:18 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I'm not interested in a massclaim at this current moment.

This may change when I'm caught up, but I don't expect it to.
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Post Post #1576 (isolation #17) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:30 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1571, Blake Belladonna wrote:Fuscezu is very likely town as well.
Belay this.

Fuscezu is town.
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Post Post #1577 (isolation #18) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:35 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Irrelephant is looking like the second scum.
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Post Post #1584 (isolation #19) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:50 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 713, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 705, skitter30 wrote:
In post 687, Irrelephant11 wrote:Flavor as fun as it is to read your crazy claims as a spectator I’m much more interested in you providing reads rn please and thank you
I recognize that if you’re trueclaiming then your trueclaiming but your reputation precedes you to the point where I can’t really take anything relating to setup or role stuff at face value from you so please give me some reads that will help me sort you
townposting ^^^^
Disagree. Irrelephant’s actually my first scum read.
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Post Post #1585 (isolation #20) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:51 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 717, Irrelephant11 wrote:The thing that’s already stressing me out is how Flavor and I have in a previous game tunneled each other to a town loss, mostly out of frustration with each other’s personalities, and I’m already frustrated with how he’s engaged with me/my slot in the short amount of time he’s been in the thread and I’m actually like having to take really intentional slow deep breaths rn

That was possibly my least favorite loss and I would like to at least get along with Flavor this time
I'm seeing a trend this game.
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Post Post #1586 (isolation #21) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:52 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 554, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 545, skitter30 wrote:I dont really get why people dont like irrel's posting tbh
Obviously this sounds different coming from me but I agree wholeheartedly
It’s not like this game has extremely scummy lynch candidates rn so my D1 goal is a good PoE (I can provide meta of me doing this at least once before). I obviously didn’t finish since I only had time for four slots but like since when is reading ISO’s and coming away with reads scummy? Like call it NAI busywork if you *really* want me to stay lynchable :roll: but my reads changed on two of the four players I’ve reread and I feel I’ve provided good points for why skitter is town, why Shiidaji might actually be town, etc.

I don’t like that fuscezu and RCE are scumreading me for, well, basically just scumhunting and playing the game. Feels like they’re hoping to be townread for the audacity to call one of the townier players scum
I got that exact same feeling from this post. I agreed with Fuscosco that the PBPAs that Irrelephant posted in the thread were not town, and this response is just too overblown.
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Post Post #1587 (isolation #22) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:01 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 827, Persivul wrote:
In post 817, tris wrote:@Persivul
What do you think of Smile?
Difficult to read due to the hydra factor - probably better sorted via night actions.
In post 828, Persivul wrote:
In post 822, Flavor Leaf wrote: I just basically also win with town, so yeah, I’m town siding, just don’t screw me over, and I won’t screw you guys over, we end together.
I'm agreeing with insomnia here. If you're with town, then fully disclose your role. Otherwise, 3p is anti-town, and you're the default lynch since no one is blatant scum so far.
VOTE: Flavor Leaf
I would just like to note here that these posts were made very shortly after the Smile wagon picked up.
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Post Post #1588 (isolation #23) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:10 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Why is Persivul being townread again?
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Post Post #1589 (isolation #24) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:11 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

ClearlyClarity is town.
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Post Post #1591 (isolation #25) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:34 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I can believe it, I'm starting to see RCEnigma as the second scum.
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Post Post #1592 (isolation #26) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:42 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1575, ceejayvinoya wrote:I'm claiming jailkeeper.

I tried to jail blake (tris slot) last night but apparently CC over there jailed me.
What did you do N0?
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Post Post #1593 (isolation #27) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:50 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I am caught up.

Insomnia is town.
Fuscezu is town.
Succinct-slot is likely town.
ClearlyClarity is likely town.
Irrelephant11 is townish.
ceejayvinoya is townish.

RCEnigma is scummish.
Persivul is lockscum.
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Post Post #1594 (isolation #28) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:56 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Persivul's posting never improved. I'm getting no indication whatsoever that he's legitimately attempting to sort the game, just going through the motions while everybody else plays the game. His responses to my case are also horrendous, he did nothing but cherrypick a point of mine and responded to it in two separate instances.

RCEnigma gives me somewhat similar feels (and I'm getting a very different impression of how he's playing compared to every other game I've played with him, and I've only seen his towngame), but I'm much more conflicted on him due to his content in general looking fine in a vacuum. I'd still say that he's the most likely second scum primarily since I've been unable to pin down a second suspect.

Irrelephant needs to be flipped before LyLo. I got the impression throughout day 2 that he was edging past the line where I'd expect scum to be able to push past, but I have no relevant experience with him before and I don't trust Skitter's read on him as far as I can throw it.

ceejayvinoya is a pretty stale townread. I'd like ceejay to fullclaim all relevant information about their role to confirm something, but otherwise he's mostly in my PoE list for not especially towntelling this game.
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Post Post #1599 (isolation #29) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:03 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Why do you have these overblown reactions every time somebody scumreads you?
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Post Post #1600 (isolation #30) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:03 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Lol.

Lynch Persivul.
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Post Post #1601 (isolation #31) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:04 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

And don't let Irrelephant live to LyLo.
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Post Post #1602 (isolation #32) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:07 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Fuscosco has been the voice of reason this game, I trust him to carry this game if it comes down to it.

I would leave my top four townreads alone, but ClearlyClarity should be revisited if she lives too long and my PoE is all dead.

Insomnia, lynch Persivul. You've trusted my reads before in the past, this time you can do so confidently.
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Post Post #1603 (isolation #33) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:08 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Just so people don't have to hunt, I will just out since this alt is fully open anyways.

I am the new Ankamius playing account.
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Post Post #1613 (isolation #34) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:28 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1606, Fuscezu wrote:
In post 1603, Blake Belladonna wrote:I am the new Ankamius playing account.
kinda fits the theme ank has tbh
What do you mean by this?
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Post Post #1620 (isolation #35) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:32 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1614, Fuscezu wrote:I had a feeling you were ank
Is this a good thing or a bad thing?
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Post Post #1621 (isolation #36) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:33 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1611, Persivul wrote:
In post 1594, Blake Belladonna wrote:Persivul's posting never improved. I'm getting no indication whatsoever that he's legitimately attempting to sort the game, just going through the motions while everybody else plays the game. His responses to my case are also horrendous, he did nothing but cherrypick a point of mine and responded to it in two separate instances.

ceejayvinoya is a pretty stale townread. I'd like ceejay to fullclaim all relevant information about their role to confirm something, but otherwise he's mostly in my PoE list for not especially towntelling this game.
There's an aspect of mafia that you're missing. When people have roles that can conftown them, or near to it, they sometimes don't bother towntelling.

I figured ceejay was the second JK from his hammer. To me, that's the sign of someone who knows they won't be lynched due to their role.

I also know I won't be lynched today, so I'm not particularly concerned about living up to your expectations.
You don't need to try to towntell in order to towntell.
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Post Post #1629 (isolation #37) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:09 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I can tell this game is going to be a real blast to play in.
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Post Post #1630 (isolation #38) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:09 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I can already tell you with confidence that I'm well out of my scumrange and should never be lynched, but that is probably as compelling to you as you saying that to me is.
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Post Post #1633 (isolation #39) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:13 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

If that is trustworthy, then the game is literally PoEable.
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Post Post #1634 (isolation #40) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:13 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1, funkybike1 wrote:38. There are two Jailkeepers in this setup. The first time they both target each other, they are both protected. The second and subsequent times, they are both roleblocked and not protected.
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Post Post #1636 (isolation #41) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:15 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Actually, I am willing to bet the game on the scumteam just being within Irrelephant11, Persivul, and RCEnigma at this point.

ClearlyClarity and ceejayvinoya are not a scumteam.
Insomnia is town.
Fuscezu is town.
Succinct has nonzero odds of being scum, but I find that unlikely.
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Post Post #1641 (isolation #42) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:16 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

No, Irrelephant was copped.

It's literally Persivul + RCEnigma.
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Post Post #1645 (isolation #43) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:18 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1640, ceejayvinoya wrote:
In post 1637, Fuscezu wrote:Right but you didnt target Clarity, right?
No, so I'm assuming I was roleblocked and protected by clarity and nothing happened to blake.
I don't think it matters. I targeted Succinct last night anyways, so either way I targeted myself.
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Post Post #1646 (isolation #44) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:18 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Succinct is the scum if one of Persivul and RCEnigma is incorrect.
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Post Post #1647 (isolation #45) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:19 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

My only worry with the setup of this game was a Town Jailkeeper + Scum Jailkeeper, but that worry is completely gone with the assurance from both jailkeepers that they both are town.
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Post Post #1650 (isolation #46) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:24 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I'm very wary of relying on mechanics to solve this game, especially since I don't know how funkybike1 designs his setups.
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Post Post #1651 (isolation #47) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:26 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1649, Irrelephant11 wrote:so Fus should probably say who was protected last night IF the jailkeepers canceled each other out
Because that slot is then conftown
Scum should probably concede tbh
Not exactly.

There is a mirror in the game.
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Post Post #1654 (isolation #48) » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:30 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

It was me that targeted Succinct.

I didn't read a single post of this game before day started.
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Post Post #1670 (isolation #49) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:52 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Interesting.
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Post Post #1672 (isolation #50) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:05 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Fuscezu, did you reach the same conclusion I did?
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Post Post #1674 (isolation #51) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:23 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Well, somewhat.

I don't disagree with that statement.
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Post Post #1685 (isolation #52) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:11 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

It's possible.
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Post Post #1686 (isolation #53) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:12 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

But no, I believe ceejay was protected.
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Post Post #1690 (isolation #54) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:27 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I am a visitor.
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Post Post #1698 (isolation #55) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:46 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

We could also not try to solve the entire setup today and rely on raw reads strength instead.
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Post Post #1700 (isolation #56) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:50 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I'm already voting my top scumread.
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Post Post #1702 (isolation #57) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:52 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Thank you, funkybike1.
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Post Post #1734 (isolation #58) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:56 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1710, insomnia wrote:K page 61 I'm seeing thrown shots. Having played with Persivul before I can tell you he's scummy as shit and accusing me on stupid shit is in his town range. Last time we played he had pretty bad reads and was overall anti-town. Accusing him on being forced is not really a good accusation for that reason alone.

Now, let me address the comments prior to the accusation. We have a jail keep on ceejay. I'll add this for posterity, stream of consciousness is my speciality. Fuscezu also claimed healer but didn't out their healed target, which is weird because mafia know who they attacked anyway. I'll stress on this afterwards or maybe it unfolds in the following pages.


Don't tell me you think there's any chance Persivul is town here.

Everything about how he's played this game is fake.
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Post Post #1737 (isolation #59) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:00 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Why is that proof of anything? Knowing that an innocent result is fake doesn't mean he can't play along like it isn't.

You fell for the trap and got pocketed.
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Post Post #1742 (isolation #60) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:11 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

VOTE: Succinct

This is fundamentally the incorrect move, but I understand that I'm not going to be able to convince you.

Never let Persivul live to endgame.
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Post Post #1743 (isolation #61) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:13 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Disloyal means that it will only work on targets that are not the same faction as you.
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Post Post #1747 (isolation #62) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:20 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

That's not worth speculating about at the moment.
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Post Post #1767 (isolation #63) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:51 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

UNVOTE: Succinct
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Post Post #1769 (isolation #64) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:25 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

VOTE: Persivul

I think RCEs vote was a hammer, but I want to do this anyways just because.
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Post Post #1771 (isolation #65) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:56 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

That's a relief.
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Post Post #1774 (isolation #66) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:47 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Insomnia and Irrelephant, can you explain how you see Persivul's meta for me please?

I think this is the exact same circumstance as I've seen with a few other players on the site where they have a reputation for being hard to read, but are players that I can read easily because they play specifically in a way where I pick up on the differences between their two alignments very easily.

I want to be sure that this is a similar scenario because I see no way that Persivul is legitimately town here using those same tells, and I have no reason to disbelieve that they are faulty in this case.
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Post Post #1775 (isolation #67) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:49 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

If it helps, I've glanced at a few of Persivul's past games to double check this. It's been directly indicative every single time.

He is scum.
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Post Post #1776 (isolation #68) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:51 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

For a direct correlation to how he is playing from a scum mindset, keep in mind that he has recently admitted to gambiting a wagon on himself, but has given no indication that he has legitimately gotten any reads on anybody from that gambit.

Yet all the same, people are jumping on him saying offhand once that he is okay with being lynched as a reason to call him town. That isn't a reason to call him town because there is no bite behind that statement. He's posturing so that people lynch somebody else today.
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Post Post #1777 (isolation #69) » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:56 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Irrelephant, you need to stop trying to find specific NAI actions to attribute town to for Persivul and look at how he's played this game overall.

He hasn't been sorting.
he hasn't been looking to lynch scum.
There's no ferver behind his solving, like he doesn't even care.

He's fake this game. People are townreading him for ridiculous reasons, and you're focusing far too much on the data to look at it objectively without a town bias on his slot already.

Look at what I've posted about him and think about the fundamentals I've been getting at with him. Then tell me that he strays from that same mindset as thee game goes on and show me. It's not even possible to because he's scum.
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Post Post #1782 (isolation #70) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:04 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I southland trust an authority appeal like that, this is a phenomenon I only recently became aware of.

Recently as in last month recently.
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Post Post #1783 (isolation #71) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:05 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I wouldn't *
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Post Post #1784 (isolation #72) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:06 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

However, I can say confidently that every reason I've seen to townread Persivul is not town indicative. It's very doable to fake an attack on insomnia and to go along with an inno soft.
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Post Post #1787 (isolation #73) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:37 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I believe his claim is NAI.
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Post Post #1813 (isolation #74) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 3:04 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I am acknowledging there is plenty of things for me to respond to. I will get to it later today.

Succinct needs to start talking.
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Post Post #1816 (isolation #75) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 3:08 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I don't especially agree with anybody getting towncred for the Smile wagon outside of Irrelephant and insomnia, despite my reservations with how Smile and Irrelephant interacted at the very end.

Everybody else was along for the ride.
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Post Post #1833 (isolation #76) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 6:14 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I know who Succinct is.

I also know that in a vacuum I would townread them, but I need to interact with them to have a confident read either way with how little they've posted.

The activity is NAI, by the way.
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Post Post #1835 (isolation #77) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:41 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1834, Fuscezu wrote:
In post 1833, Blake Belladonna wrote:I know who Succinct is.

I also know that in a vacuum I would townread them, but I need to interact with them to have a confident read either way with how little they've posted.

The activity is NAI, by the way.
But isn’t this in itself scum indicative? If succinct is town, he should be towning up he thread, especially this far in the game

-bae
I don't believe so.

I only have direct experience with this alt's scumgame, but there was more than enough that was sketchy about how they played that I find it likely I will be able to tell what alignment they are with content more than just their absence.

What I've seen so far indicates that this is different than the last time I saw them, but that needs more to lock in.
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Post Post #1843 (isolation #78) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:54 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

It's a weak town read, insomnia.
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Post Post #1846 (isolation #79) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:06 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Interesting.
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Post Post #1850 (isolation #80) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:14 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1848, Succinct wrote:
In post 1664, Fuscezu wrote:We are a disloyal doctor.
VOTE: Fuscezu
I believe this to be a 100% truthful claim; I believe it to be a scum role.
Town has zero use of a disloyal doctor.
Loyal
doctor's vast utility, but not disloyal.
I believe it's third party.
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Post Post #1853 (isolation #81) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:18 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Sadly, this looks like town Succinct.
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Post Post #1857 (isolation #82) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:25 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1855, Fuscosco wrote:Then who are you suggesting.
I'm town.
insomnia is town.
ceejayvinoya and ClearlyClarity are town via roles.
Fuscezu is probably third party, but otherwise town.
Irrelephant11 is cop cleared.
Succinct is town via personality tell.

That literally leaves RCEnigma and Persivul.

If that isn't the scumteam, then we have one of the following situations.

1. Irrelephant11 is not cop cleared and is scum. This would mean Chara screwed up by heavily implying Irrelephant11 was cop cleared.
2. The jailkeeper claims don't actually clear each other and one of them is scum.
3. I'm wrong on one of my other town reads. I don't currently believe this to be the case.
4. There is only one scum alive.
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Post Post #1860 (isolation #83) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:27 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Well, there you go.

That would explain why Persivul is the only slot I got a hard scumread on all game. :]
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Post Post #1863 (isolation #84) » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:29 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Honestly, though.

I will go into it more tomorrow. I have a day off.
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Post Post #1872 (isolation #85) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:29 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1788, insomnia wrote:
In post 1784, Blake Belladonna wrote:However, I can say confidently that every reason I've seen to townread Persivul is not town indicative. It's very doable to fake an attack on insomnia and to go along with an inno soft.
From an objective point of view, you're more likely to see this as town. However, being subjected to a type of push that I've encountered before it makes me more likely to believe the people that push me are more likely to be town. I am obvious town as town and that's why scum often times just avoid pushing me. That's why I think Persivul, someone that doesn't post much anyway, won't do that as scum.

While I respect the veterans and what not, gaslighting Irrelephant won't do anyone better. Even good players can have bad reads. I just think lynching Succint pegs us a scum here and I think the case on Persivul is a stretch. Meta can be manipulated easily. I find Persivul a hard person to read and I have respect for him, which is why I don't want to lynch him.

I believe he should've been the N0 check like 10/10 times here.
This case is fully dependent on whether Persivul has enough experience with you to know for a fact that this is true. Barring this, there's a point to be made that Persivul didn't go very far to push this read through. If you go back and look, his push ran out of gas almost immediately when you pushed back on him. He looked to deflect the push, then ignored it until you pushed the issue, and finally asked you a disengaging question before hopping off of you entirely.

If you really pay attention to what Persivul did on his push, it's not a point that he actually pushed you. His initial point was forced, and his response betrayed that there was no actual oomph behind it in the first place. It was a fake push.
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Post Post #1873 (isolation #86) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:39 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1791, Persivul wrote:I've also admitted that I'm not being transparent with my thought processes. Yet, I'm 2 for 2 on lynches. Again, I haven't felt the need to obvtown, as I can self govern, and up until today I thought Irrel was a cop with an inno on me.
Firstly, if you believe there is a cop in the game with an innocent result on you, wouldn't your first instinct be to protect the cop from nightkills over the governor?
In post 1791, Persivul wrote:People understand that a governor who can self-target is highly likely to be town.
Secondly, I'm going to state for the record that I will only buy the claim when it is confirmed. I still don't buy that someone who believes there is a cop in the game as a significantly lower utility role would purposely play as reserved as you have, and your current push that the self-use governor makes you town because you've claimed it while still looking to primarily deflect suspicion on you rather than try to solve the game is very strongly indicative of a scum mindset over a town mindset.
In post 1791, Persivul wrote:Nope. Go ahead and lynch me. That will be good for me personally, as it will prove my claim. From a scum perspective, lynching me today:

- makes me lynchable tomorrow, as I'm 1X. So, a NK doesn't need to be wasted on a weak utility town role
- it probably puts the game in evens, which generally sucks for town
Thirdly, you are not looking to sort me with this post. You are looking for reasons that town shouldn't lynch you despite the fact that you're willing to be lynched multiple times now.

There is town motivation to test your claim today, because the lynchpool is condensed enough that we can afford to take the risk now instead of later as we approach LyLo. You aren't blatantly town enough to where your claim can be blindly trusted, so it is objectively optimal to force you into a position where you can be lynched if it is required to. Scum will never be forced to nightkill you because there are enough town slots in this game to warrant the kill over you.
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Post Post #1874 (isolation #87) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:44 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1792, Persivul wrote:
In post 1777, Blake Belladonna wrote:He hasn't been sorting.
he hasn't been looking to lynch scum.
There's no ferver behind his solving, like he doesn't even care.
I've lynched two scum.
I'm not being transparent with my thought processes, but at the end of the day, my vote is in the right place. The results speak for themselves.
This is a pure bullshit argument.

One of these 'scum' lynches was a third party that scum are also unaware of.
The other of these scum lynches was on a slot that was a sinking ship. Your interactions with that slot were not good, and you were even soft-defending them while the wagon was ongoing up until you were expected to join the wagon. Even the way you joined it was overexplained. I can easily see this as a bus vote.
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Post Post #1875 (isolation #88) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:45 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1793, Persivul wrote:
In post 1787, Blake Belladonna wrote:I believe his claim is NAI.
I really doubt that you think governors are 50/50 town/scum. It's this kind of statement that shows you're not being honest, and you have an agenda.
In post 1794, Persivul wrote:Me pushing Blake's predecessor before Smile and skitter became bigger targets. May be the reason she came in gunning for me.

Spoiler:
In post 105, Persivul wrote:So far tris is playing nothing like she did in Room Odds, in which she was town.
In post 113, Persivul wrote:
In post 107, tris wrote:
In post 105, Persivul wrote:So far tris is playing nothing like she did in Room Odds, in which she was town.
This is accurate.
Why the change?
In post 550, Persivul wrote:
In post 523, tris wrote:For some reason it seems like no one's really expressed a read on me. Does anyone want to give it a shot?
Sure - scummy side of null. Your ISO is a bunch of questions without pushes. You occasionally put a post in tags and say you don't like it but don't give specific reasons.
In post 551, Persivul wrote:
In post 525, tris wrote:
In post 432, RCEnigma wrote:I have reason to believe ceejay may be town
Do you want to say more on this?
In post 527, tris wrote:
In post 521, tris wrote:
In post 520, skitter30 wrote: @tris can i interest you in joining the rce wagon?
Yeah, VOTE: RCEnigma I'll have a bit more to say in a moment.
Actually, I don't really have much more to say.
In post 528, tris wrote:
In post 524, Fuscezu wrote:town
Why?
And...you keep on doing it.
In post 553, Persivul wrote:
In post 547, Persivul wrote: Could have gotten something going? It was going nowhere. It was a waste to have it there. shiidaji otoh is a viable wagon and whatever happens with it, we'll get some info out of it.
Rather shii
was
a viable wagon at the time of my vote. Looks like people are waiting for the replacement. In the meantime:
VOTE: tris
Everybody, keep a note of these posts. This is a blatant attempt by Persivul to push back on me for pushing on him as hard as I have today.

I strongly expect that if Persivul was town this game and believed this was the source of my push on him, he would have brought this up far earlier than this, as early as when I initially pushed him at the start of the day.
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Post Post #1877 (isolation #89) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:01 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1808, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 1775, Blake Belladonna wrote:If it helps, I've glanced at a few of Persivul's past games to double check this. It's been directly indicative every single time.

He is scum.
FWIW if you detail what you’re talking about here I’ll reconsider
One thing that I've noticed throughout a lot of Persivul's entrances is this.

As town, he's actively making an attempt to sort people and get information that he needs to get reads.
As scum, he forces content when he feels like he has to and ends up with weird justifications for his pushes.

This is a fairly common thing for players that are around average to above average. A lot of people don't seem to look for this kind of thing, but the difference is very obvious when you know to look for it. The way he's been posting this game early on is a tonal roller coaster. The way he posts and pushes his reads have no actual bite behind them, he just throws them out there and retracts them when they get a response. My impression of his gameplay has been trying to find the perfect spot to coast on while prodding to see what he can get away with. When he actually does make some kind of effort in the game, it's very reactive and is tailored specifically to the situation at hand rather than an internal thought process.

Early in the game? He pokes at people's posting, and backs off when he gets pushback on it or it has a logically consistent answer.

His vote on Smile is directly after you push for him to join the wagon. Note that he doesn't have any particular scumread on that slot, nor is initially willing to lynch the slot despite the wagon on them already existing. He looks entirely like he's compromising on the slot when he joins the wagon.

Later on, he vanishes for most of day two.

Day three? He's approaching me with discredits and arguments for why he is town, but he is not looking to solve the game or work with the solve that everybody else has. He doesn't act like he's been scumreading my slot the entire time, despite the fact that he apparently has been. The way he responded to my initial case was to strawman and discredit it, not actually use it to sort me or convince people that the push itself is scum indicative. When he starts getting more pressure later on, he starts pushing against every point against him by pushing me as the scum instead of him. He argues that his claim, despite being unproven, is town indicative. He uses the lynch on the third party as an excuse for him being town.

His entire mindset this game isn't town. He's been operating under a scum mindset this entire time.
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Post Post #1878 (isolation #90) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:05 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1816, Blake Belladonna wrote:I don't especially agree with anybody getting towncred for the Smile wagon outside of Irrelephant and insomnia, despite my reservations with how Smile and Irrelephant interacted at the very end.

Everybody else was along for the ride.
This is still true.

Persivul essentially sheeped Irrelephant onto the Smile wagon. Him attempting to snatch towncred for it today as a defense is completely bogus.
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Post Post #1882 (isolation #91) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:56 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1881, Persivul wrote:
In post 1873, Blake Belladonna wrote: Firstly, if you believe there is a cop in the game with an innocent result on you, wouldn't your first instinct be to protect the cop from nightkills over the governor?
Of course. That's why I didn't say anything about my belief that irrel was a cop until the real cop flipped.
Secondly, I'm going to state for the record that I will only buy the claim when it is confirmed.
If the claim is confirmed, will your read on me change?
1. Then why did you not play like town to protect the cop rather than like scum because you can protect yourself?

2. No.
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Post Post #1884 (isolation #92) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 2:07 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Why does Irrelephant not having died yet have any impact on my question?

I'm telling you that the way you played the game is incongruent with you believing there is a town cop in the game with a correct innocent result on you. This goes back to day one, before there were any nightkills in the game. You've played the game like your role matters more than his.

I bring up not believing your claim because it is unproven, yet you've already been making arguments like you should be town for it.
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Post Post #1886 (isolation #93) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 2:18 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I will get to the meta point tomorrow in more detail.

However, if you don't wish to wait, look at his past towngames and see when and how he starts sorting people. There is a very clear mindset behind his posting that makes it obvious he is looking to sort other slots. He's not doing it this game, as he is posturing instead.

I don't know how to respond to the rest, because I feel that the reason we aren't synced is because of playstyle differences. I'm assuming by what I've seen in this game so far is that you primarily work off more indirect methods of sorting people, primarily via how the gamestate moves around them, correct?
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Post Post #1888 (isolation #94) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 2:24 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

So you believe that a town leader was under no risk of being the nightkill despite not apparently playing like an important PR?
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Post Post #1890 (isolation #95) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 2:33 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1887, Persivul wrote: I'm arguing - correctly - that this role is town the vast majority of the time. People can test it if they want. Want me to vote for myself?

You're arguing - disingenuously - that such a role, even if proven, isn't AI.
I'm arguing that your role claim doesn't excuse your play.

I don't care if you claim to be an innocent child, I won't believe it until I see it.
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Post Post #1891 (isolation #96) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 2:34 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1889, Persivul wrote:Ah, now the backpedal to town leader.

Do you think your slot did all it could to try to protect the night leader from NK? How about other players with lesser PRs? Why are you only pushing me for it?

Also...how would you best make use of governor with ability to self-target? I'm pretty sure it's not by playing so townie you're never in danger of being lynched.
This is a misrep.

You had a unique mindset, of your own admission, that Irrelephant was a cop. No other slot had that same pressure.
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Post Post #1892 (isolation #97) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 2:36 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I'd also be very interested in knowing why you would play around having to use your governor ability when you admitted just a little bit ago that there were scum-indicative reasons to want to use your ability.
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Post Post #1893 (isolation #98) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 2:37 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Oh, but of course.

It's scum indicative because I want to prove your claim. It's not scum indicative when you want to play around protecting yourself with it.
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Post Post #1900 (isolation #99) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 9:23 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Insomnia, do you believe his push isn't fakeable?
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Post Post #1905 (isolation #100) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 9:48 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

How droll.
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Post Post #1907 (isolation #101) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 9:59 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Now you know how I've felt all day.
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Post Post #1909 (isolation #102) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:04 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I would be very disappointed in you if you actually tried to lynch me today.
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Post Post #1910 (isolation #103) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:30 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1908, insomnia wrote:Succint abandons his only scum read that he has no progression on to vote someone based on mechanics that has been acting town all game. Adds up.

Ank remains neutral on him until he comes back, makes 4 terrible posts and then she calls him town.

What do you know, shall we end the game?
I'd also like to point out the irony of "voting somebody based on mechanics that has been acting town all game."

Especially when you look at "His claim comes from town 11/10 of the time."

I refuse to go into self meta on this account, so I'm going to leave it as this being a completely ridiculous strategy and leave it there.
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Post Post #1912 (isolation #104) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:47 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

The papers are incoming.
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Post Post #1914 (isolation #105) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:19 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I'd hoped it was obvious on this account, but I show far less emotion on Blake than I do on a any other account.

The fundamental flaw in your theory is not taking that into account. Yes, I'm annoyed with you, but I'm not going to make a big fuss about it. It really isn't worth it.
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Post Post #1916 (isolation #106) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:31 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Why does not feeling an obligation to hide my identity mean I'm going to react the same way as I would on my primary account?

I rarely ever case on my main account either, yet I've done that several times in this game. My methods and tone are completely different, so it's ludicrous to think that I'd have similar reactions as I would elsewhere.
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Post Post #1918 (isolation #107) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:42 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

This alt was never secret.

I changed accounts because I'm changing my playstyle.
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Post Post #1919 (isolation #108) » Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:43 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1248, Ankamius wrote:/out
/in coalition as Blake Belladonna
Proof.

That was my first post on this account.
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Post Post #1922 (isolation #109) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:01 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Is there any particular reason not to?
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Post Post #1923 (isolation #110) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:06 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Why are we even talking about this?
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Post Post #1924 (isolation #111) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:20 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Importantly, I've seen no proper rebuttal against my cases, and I've addressed everything I'm aware of (other than the meta point that I haven't forgotten about) for why people are townreading Persivul.

All I've seen is people looking to scumread me for... reasons, apparently because I scumread one of their townreads?

My entire case has to be incorrect for Persivul to be town, but nobody has addressed them other than Persivul cherry picking at them and other people vaguely saying they don't agree with it for whatever reason or another.

Address my case itself, insomnia. Show me where Persivul has had a clear town thought process and has been actively trying to sort this game, because I've gone to great lengths this game to show you that he doesn't and he hasn't. I've seen one or the other (or both) from every other slot in the game. No amount of "scum doesn't push me" is going to convince me otherwise because I've also shown how a scum Persivul would have made that same push you say comes from a town Persivul.

If you think I'm scum, fine. Just don't complain about me not taking you seriously in the meantime.
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Post Post #1926 (isolation #112) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:19 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I've thought about it more.

Succinct is town.
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Post Post #1927 (isolation #113) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:24 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I can go into it more a bit later, but Succinct doesn't ever push a Blake/Fuscezu/Persivul scum list as scum.

At best, to allow for Succinct to be scum, it means that scum are still having a good shot at winning the game even with their death today. The way they handled their catchup never equates to a scum mindset otherwise, because a successful game winning PoE with Succinct as scum would force a response that never came from them.

Plus, even if you assume that they are relying on me to shield them as the only slot townreading them, then there is no reason to push a scumread on my slot.

It's much simpler of an answer that they're just town that believe they have caught Fuscezu in a fake claim, because that push is never going to stop the wagon on them by itself.
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Post Post #1928 (isolation #114) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:26 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I believe it's just one remaining scum.

It's exactly Persivul + RCEnigma if it isn't, with some chance of Fuscezu depending on how the setup is constructed, although I still find that very unlikely to believe.

Everybody else just equates to town.
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Post Post #1930 (isolation #115) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:56 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

That said, I still would like Succinct to go more into why they hold the reads they do.

Especially on my slot, because even with them having a fairly poor read record of me, I'd still expect them to have come around to a townread of me by this point. I have a suspicion for what the reason is, but I need to be sure before outing it.
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Post Post #1938 (isolation #116) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:29 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Good luck metaing me.

I'm one of those players that you either know how to read or you don't.
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Post Post #1940 (isolation #117) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:49 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »



Here you go. Every game I've played this year to completion.
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Post Post #1942 (isolation #118) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:58 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Oops, I forgot one or two scum games.
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Post Post #1946 (isolation #119) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:22 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I'm fine with being jailed.
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Post Post #1951 (isolation #120) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:11 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

VOTE: RCEnigma

I'm assuming that doing anything more is a waste of time.

I don't think town wins this game.
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Post Post #1954 (isolation #121) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:03 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1953, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 1951, Blake Belladonna wrote:
I don't think town wins this game.
Why not? Didn’t you think there was only one scum left?
I fully expect that Succinct will get lynched after me anyways, even though they're town. Then, you'll be stuck in a MyLo situation afterwards, with only one lynch for two potential scum slots.

I don't know about you, but I wouldn't be the most optimistic about that situation.
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Post Post #1960 (isolation #122) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:09 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I'm voting whichever of RCEnigma and Persivul has any chance of getting lynched, Fusco.

I don't think anybody else in this entire game flips scum.
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Post Post #2015 (isolation #123) » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:45 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 2009, Persivul wrote:Pseudo-clear?

JKs don't clear unless there's only one scum, and that's unlikely. In minis with a 3P, every one that I've played was 9:3:1 except for one 10:2:1, and a number of people complained that was townsided (including town). Blake is pushing the one scum left scenario,
and she requested to be jailed last night.
This is an interesting take, considering that there was talk of jailing me before I ever mentioned anything about it.
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Post Post #2057 (isolation #124) » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:51 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Insomnia, there's one thing that still confuses me about how you played this game.

I went out of my way to case Persivul throughout the last day phase. Why did you avoid commenting on them beyond vague rebuttals? If you know Persivul is town because of the cop check, then you already know that my entire case is wrong. So why did you go for that weird defense of him instead of addressing my cases? I don't buy the "meta can be manipulated" defense because the fundamental thought processes you have as town is essentially impossible to fabricate as mafia. The best you can do is mask them, which is exactly what I saw in Persivul's posting.

I'm leaning towards you being scum in this scenario partially because your actions don't quite match up in this way, but also because I believe Bus Driver is more likely to be a mafia role than a town role in this setup.
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Post Post #2060 (isolation #125) » Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:38 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

ceejay, who are you jailing if insomnia flips scum and the game doesn't end?
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Post Post #2062 (isolation #126) » Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:38 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Is this really game over?
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Post Post #2069 (isolation #127) » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:55 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I visited Persivul.
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Post Post #2081 (isolation #128) » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:16 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

RCEnigma is the motion detector.
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Post Post #2083 (isolation #129) » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:41 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

I don't believe for a second that Succinct no kills. They're competent enough to know that's a stupid idea.
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Post Post #2088 (isolation #130) » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:08 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

VOTE: Persivul
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Post Post #2092 (isolation #131) » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:31 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

So the game is over, I assume?
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Post Post #2099 (isolation #132) » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:08 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

Good game, everybody.

That was impressive theater, scumteam. I don't think town ever wins this game without that slip even with Persivul going down. I'd still call this a scum win in spirit.
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Post Post #2103 (isolation #133) » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:22 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 2100, Persivul wrote:I really thought irrel investigated me at first, so I was kind of cruising.
Aha. This is why I incorrectly townread you in chain of command.

Good to know.
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Post Post #2111 (isolation #134) » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:03 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

He would've likely done it, Irrelephant. My townread on Fuscezu was already waning by that point, but I never stated as such.
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Post Post #2114 (isolation #135) » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:16 am

Post by Blake Belladonna »

It sure made it a lot easier to sort through the game without all the extra WIFOM though!
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