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Post Post #2463 (isolation #200) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:09 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Egix what would you say are your strongest towngames? Can you link some examples?
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Post Post #2465 (isolation #201) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:56 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Would you say you feel proud of your play this game?
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Post Post #2467 (isolation #202) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:41 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 1911, u r a person 2 wrote:so those walls feel to me like svs~~~~~
In post 1913, Exilon wrote:like, wtf urap2?
How on earth was Exilon vs. Ausuka SvS LOL
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Post Post #2468 (isolation #203) » Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:51 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 2466, Egix96 wrote:
In post 2465, Detective Pikachu wrote:Would you say you feel proud of your play this game?
In the sense that I've managed to outrange scum!Egix? Yes.

But in the sense of being happy with how things have turned out this game? No. I feel like I should have done more to prevent Sasha from being lynched and if I had gone with my first instincts we could've lynched the scums much sooner.
This is like... weird to me? We lynched scum back to back 3-4 which for a town is pretty good.

More than that, let's think about your play this game:
-You defended Sasha d1, you eventually mislynched Rui but w/e
-You pushed Ausuka starting day 2 and were the front of the wagon to do so, starting that wagon basically as soon as I replaced into the game
-You got Ausuka lynched day 3
-You lynched Skygazer day 4
-Then you mislynched Exilon day 5

Like... you have almost no wrong pushes. That's wild. In the two games you mentioned as your strongest, town lost, and you spent most of each of those games aggressively pushing town slots. This game, you have passively pushed two mislynches but also correctly lynched two scum. Frankly your play this game far outshines either of those two games you mentioned. I frankly don't understand how you aren't ecstatic with your personal play this game even if you do get lynched in lylo.

Like you're arguing you have gone outside your scumrange but I don't see how, but I am very much concerned that your reads accuracy this game is so far above average that it's rather jarring. But on the other hand, you have also spent almost none of this game pushing a scum agenda. For that matter, you've spent almost none of this game wildly flailing around.

The problem is that tonally, in your town games you seem more reactive, more likely to reflect, and more likely to be on a different track. This game your affect feels very flat. But the problem is that most of your logic through pretty much the entire game reads very pure. You basically push no mislynches.

Like if you compare your play to URAP's this game, I would personally be blown away if I was being scumread over him since he spends so much of the game apparently pushing scum agendas. He aggressively defended Ausuka and he set up the mislynch on Exilon in the context of presenting an "auto" mechanical solve of the game through an Ausuka lynch. Like, if he is scum, from your perspective as town, he has played a wildly wolfy game while you have played an incredibly, shockingly pro-town game... I don't get why you're not like, fired up?
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Post Post #2469 (isolation #204) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:08 am

Post by Detective Pikachu »

I feel like pages 75-78 should be discussed in post-game

77-78 is pretty clearly the basis for skitter's strong townread on urap going into the EoD when she exited.

exilon also argues that ausuka's egix case slightly spews him scum, which seems to be what skitter felt as well. that doesn't mean they're right but it's definitely how it read to them at the time.

Like Egix, you said there was a "please stop bussing me vibe" in what we discussed earlier. In either scenario, there were very hard busses in 77-78. Either Ausuka decided that she was at risk of going down and wanted the towncred for a redflip on Scum!Egix or Urap realized that they were going to get swept in lylo unless he seriously reversed courses on Ausuka.

Now, it's important to note here that I was kind of expressing a scumread on urap at the time, which means that urap could theoretically have thought that his push on Ausuka would fail and that if he went down he wanted to make sure that he seriously spewed her town. At the time urap was losing both me and skitter due to his hard defense of Ausuka, so he had significant scum motivation to reverse course and bus.

It's also interesting how both Ausuka and urap basically spend page 77 deciding that exilon needs to be lynched

but it's a serious question whether ausuka/urap s/s theater looks like page 78

I think urap's alignment is possibly in quantum flux, schrodinger's alignment they call it
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Post Post #2470 (isolation #205) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:10 am

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 2466, Egix96 wrote:In the sense that I've managed to outrange scum!Egix? Yes.
Explain why you've outranged scum!Egix in exactly one post.
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Post Post #2471 (isolation #206) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:23 am

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 2409, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1598, Ausuka wrote:{aus, detective pika pika} obv
{garmr, bob} i don't really see why scum pulls off this fakeclaim here; garmr wasn't under that much pressure.
{urap, exilon} seem genuinely scumhunty
{gamma, inferno} feel kind of town and i don't have any points against either
Still drudgin'
Don't be misled by the tiers, he's her top town apart from DetPika and the masons
Also
Did you leave out Ausuka's read on you so I didn't "rule of 3" meme you? :P
In post 1598, Ausuka wrote:{aus, detective pika pika} obv
{garmr, bob} i don't really see why scum pulls off this fakeclaim here; garmr wasn't under that much pressure.
{urap, exilon} seem genuinely scumhunty
{gamma, inferno} feel kind of town and i don't have any points against either

this leaves {sasha, skitter, egix}
;
Spoiler:
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Post Post #2474 (isolation #207) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:03 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

That means it's time for the bonus round!!!!!

GET HYPED!
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Post Post #2475 (isolation #208) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:08 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

It's time for...
~
~
~
J
U
X
T
A
P
O
S
I
T
I
O
N
~
~
~


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What can they win today, John?


Why they can win this very game! What a fortune!

Crowd oohs


This is a game that's fun for the whole family! While even the kids at home can play too!
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Post Post #2476 (isolation #209) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:13 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Here's round 1!

Scenario: It's day 2 and there's no scum flips. One of these two exchanges is scum/scum theater, and the other is town pushing scum! Can
you
tell the difference?
:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:

Here's the first exchange on DAY 2 between Ausuka and u r a person 2!
Spoiler:
In post 1238, u r a person 2 wrote:ooooh it is ausuka scum, huh

VOTE: ausuka

I dunno how i missed the over-explaining

but this would also make a shit ton of sense for how I'm interpreting this gamestate rn
In post 1242, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1238, u r a person 2 wrote:ooooh it is ausuka scum, huh

VOTE: ausuka

I dunno how i missed the over-explaining

but this would also make a shit ton of sense for how I'm interpreting this gamestate rn
what do you mean by overexplaining?
In post 285, Ausuka wrote:
In post 222, Baezu wrote:Looking over the entire thread, Alchemist has mostly had short comments and questions here and there so I don’t feel a real solid towniness from him. The fact that he agreed with umlauts conclusions raises him up a few townie points for me because umlaut is a TR in my mind.
Why is this worthy of a townread?
In post 222, Baezu wrote: This post in particular pings me the wrong way...it almost feels like she’s trying to distance herself from RCE.
What part of this makes you think I'm distancing myself from RCE? I'm expressing a townread from him.
In post 222, Baezu wrote:And if she didn’t really know who else to vote for, why put a vote on Siv? Simply because they have not responded?
"This specifically just feels fake. Sure, what he mentions is certainly a possibility, but I don't see any evidence that this actually happened rather than Hitalt legitimately just forgetting about S_S's vote. The last sentence just feels slimy tbh.

He also says he's voting Hitalt because there's a number of red flags but for whatever reason doesn't specify what those red flags are."
You quoted this post; what happened? Do you think it's not reasoning for my Siv vote?
In post 108, Ausuka wrote: Ausuka seems to me like someone playing scum really well
Can you provide evidence for this. What exactly in my play makes me "scum playing really well" rather than town? You mentioned me distancing myself from RCE, sure, although I don't see how that happened at all; is there anything else at all or is this it?
In post 222, Baezu wrote: Honestly, the post from hitalt makes a lot of sense to me reading back over the thread. When I first read hitalt’s posts as he was writing them, they came across as scummy but I believe him when he said that he didn’t see SS’s self vote and his posts generally seem towny
In post 59, HitAlt wrote:
In post 56, Fuscosco wrote:I selfvoted because i could, because it sparks discussion, and because, aside from conspicuously not voting at all, its my mo
Fine enough.

VOTE: ausuka - time to activate.
What about 59 makes Hitalt town? It seems very NAI to me. Why did you even scumread them in the first place?
In post 222, Baezu wrote: This post from RCE really rubs me the wrong way...a lot of his posts don’t have much content and again, he goes from voting me to voting Siv, whom I feel is the other easy mark.....not feeling crazy town vibes from RCE
If he's done scumhunting (which he has) does it matter so much if a few of his posts don't have much content? I don't really understand.
In post 222, Baezu wrote: I understand why Siv made this vote- he himself had said before that hitalt was pinging him with red flags, but reading over it again, it seems like he might be buddying up to me because hitalt’s posts aren’t particularly scummy when you look at the entire thread...
You say you understand why Siv made this vote but you also seem to be saying you don't understand why Siv made this vote. I don't really understand this at all.
In post 222, Baezu wrote: The other thing that bothers me about Siv is that he’s doing “well enough” and by that I mean, trying to seem just towny enough to get by. Kind of a lesser version of what ausuka is doing
Can you elaborate on how I'm just trying to seem towny enough to get by?

Why do you think voting Siv is an "easy mark" -> an easy ML but also think he's scum?
In post 420, Ausuka wrote:Rn I think Baezu is scum because:
1) I think her early game was kinda trying to blend in more than anything without much desire to scumhunt.
In post 47, Baezu wrote:
In post 45, Umlaut wrote:S_S and Fuscosco are obviously not scum together. Likewise S_S and HitAlt.
In post 29, RCEnigma wrote:Why'd you put a vote down before you had an answer to your question?
Weird question. Why wait? When should someone put a vote down?
I found that weird also...It’s RVS why does he need to wait to cast his vote for you?
In post 62, Baezu wrote:UNVOTE: umlaut

Liking his posts
In post 91, Baezu wrote:I’m happy considering SS, ausuka and especially umlaut towny for now

In other news, methinks hitalt is seeming pretty scummy
She echoes Umlaut's question, unvotes him and gives pretty plain reads on the rest of the players. Like there isn't much scumhunting intent behind these posts and they look more like "I'm trying to post stuff that looks normal" than "I'm trying to find and lynch scum."

2) and seem weird to me. Like she just kind of votes FL and then unvotes? I feel like she's just trying to hop on the wagon and then unvotes once she realizes it's a serious thing?

3) Her scumread on me imo makes no sense. I'm trying to distance myself from RCE in a post where I unvote him? I don't think she's reading my posts that carefully if she's asking why I'm voting Siv; I made that clear in the same post that I voted him in the first place. These are the only two real points I see; anything else is kinda vague. She says that I seem like someone playing scum really well - but apparently this is just a compliment and not a point at all, so I think this is it, other than that my playstyle is "too perfect" - which just seems nonsensical. What even is a perfect playstyle anyway?
My suggestion as to why she'd do this as scum instead, is that she's being wagoned up and needs something to change. Her partner(s) may be lurky or have given up already. So, seeing herself in a tough spot, she may attempt to push a player she sees as obviously town, and then say this as a defense:
In post 308, Baezu wrote:If ausuka does end up getting lynched and she does happen to be town, I'm pretty much getting lynched Day 2. As scum, I would not feel comfortable going after someone whom everyone sees as "so town" - losing a scum day 2 would seriously cripple the scum team. If I were scum, I'd put my vote where the majority of votes are going so as not to draw attention to myself
I think this is a more likely thought process than any town thought process behind her push.
In post 295, Baezu wrote:
In post 293, Ausuka wrote:
In post 257, Baezu wrote:I’m gonna laugh so hard when they lynch your scummy slot slaxx
mmm
I see you've already made up your mind about me, and so everything I say you're using to support your theory, which is fine, but I would encourage you to take those lenses off and actually read the content of my bigger posts
This also doesn't seem like something you say to your top scumread.

4) She seems very postury at points. Specifically:
In post 257, Baezu wrote:I’m gonna laugh so hard when they lynch your scummy slot slaxx
This honestly just screams fake to me.
In post 300, Baezu wrote:Well, sounds like there’s a consensus. So why haven’t I been lynched yet? Make it happen, guys. I’m not going to vote myself. Wouldn’t everyone rather have actual concrete information with which to work tomorrow?
This isn't as fake as the quote above but I'm a little wary about how she seems to change to and from this mindset so quickly.

5) She says things like "I'm gonna laugh so hard when they lynch your scummy slot slaxx" and Slaxx is the more scumread of me and him I think. She even says at one point there should be a wagon on slaxx - why doesn't she ever try and make one happen?

6) Her mini-push on RCE is weird and doesn't feel like it comes from a town mindset. Like she says that he's likely to be scum because a lot of his posts don't have much content - I think this is a strange way to look at RCE rather than judging him by how much scumhunting he's done overall. She says this is subjective but like I don't really see how it is? Perhaps more importantly, she calls voting Siv an "easy mark" but she also has Siv as her second top scumread - surely she should be understanding where RCE is coming from on this rather than criticizing him for it? Like I don't get the attitude of calling a scumread an easy mislynch.

Can someone who townreads Baezu tell me why? If anyone explained it already I totally missed it but I don't think they have.
if you mean like, posting a lot about certain people and points - the spoiler above is me doing that as town in a different game.
In post 1243, u r a person 2 wrote:Yeah that's what I meant.

I'm not going to do a meta dive to see if it's really the same, I'm just not.

But if you're not scum, help me out here because this game state feels like we're no where close to landing on a scum lynch

and i think that gives you scum equity all on its own
In post 1244, Ausuka wrote:i'm literally voting someone who you said you would vote. i've explained why they're scum here. what more do you want?

how is it metadiving if I literally give you the posts in a spoiler. you don't even need to actually read it, just notice that I post big posts as town too.
In post 1245, u r a person 2 wrote:i did read that, you're right that does look similar



And here's, just a page later, an exchange between Egix and Ausuka right after Detective Pikachu reps into the game!

Spoiler:
In post 1270, Egix96 wrote:VOTE: Ausuka

Yeah I don't really like the way that she pushed on bob, specifically.
In post 1271, Ausuka wrote:be more specific. what don't you like about it?
In post 1272, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1271, Ausuka wrote:be more specific. what don't you like about it?
I find it a bit scummy that you described as being stretchy and forced, rather than just calling it out as being a loaded question.

And I can easily envision (inexperiencedTown)!bob thinking that asking a specifically-phrased loaded question in an attempt to bait a scummy response, would be a valid strategy. (Not saying that I personally would recommend it, but still.)


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Post Post #2477 (isolation #210) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:15 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Round 2: It's day 5!

Here's Egix voting Exilon!
In post 2263, Egix96 wrote:Well it's not me so...

VOTE: Exilon
Here's u r a person 2 voting Exilon!
In post 2264, u r a person 2 wrote:VOTE: exilon

my pref
Can you decide which one is scum?


:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:
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Post Post #2478 (isolation #211) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:17 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Round 3: It's day 4.

One of these two is a bus! The other is town voting scum.
In post 2143, u r a person 2 wrote:pika, bob, garmr still town

leaving

exilon, sky, egix

VOTE: sky
because her informed revelation is untrue.
In post 2145, Egix96 wrote:Yup

VOTE: Skygazer

L-1
Can you decide which is which?


:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:
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Post Post #2479 (isolation #212) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:27 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Round 4: It's day 3!

One of these two is an s/s bus, the other is town pushing scum!

Can you decide?

:?: :?: :?:

Spoiler:
In post 1785, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1781, skitter30 wrote:@garmr: yeah, weak hider didnt fit my understanding of what the setup would look like *at all* which is why the claim confused me - i was half-expecting a vigi, since it's a miller of sorts to me, but weak + detective is just ????

@exi:
A) i don't crumb usually, i forget to do so most of the time
B) why did u ask me this (and not, say, ausuka who apparently didnt crumb an inno)?

@exilon: what are you thinking of urap and gamma rn?
(Egix =/= Exi but ok)
a) That's okay, I don't usually crumb either ;)
b) I was thinking that if you had a crumb to back up your claim then it would help.

So yeah, I'm just gonna go ahead and

VOTE: Ausuka

For me, it doesn't make sense for her to barely mention the person she's supposed to have a VT check on.
In post 1792, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1598, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1430, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1412, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1396, skitter30 wrote:If you want a line-by-line response i can do that, but not till i'm at a pc(much) later today

I think that you're basically using this argument with me as a way to stay engaged with the thread and to look busy - since this argument started this is basically what you've been posting about, and what your content is about.

But despite this, you're not actually doing anything about it - vote me if you think i'm scum, don't spend a week writing walls in my direction and dancing around the read.

(I believe there's scum in exilon/garmr byw)

Also a lot of the things you're calling me out on a personality thing; we have very different definitions of pushing (as i went over already with hrg iirc)

Kinda hard to interact with ausuka more when she hasn't really been posting. And of course i voted ausuka cuz i think she should be pushed, why would you say i voted hef 'not because she's scummy or should be pushed'? And yeah i at least partially switched off of you since it wasn't getting traction. Thjs is scummh because ....

I also don't think it's fair to attribute the stall in the game to me given that i'm easily one of the most active players ffs.
you've made no attempt to interact with me: you simply parked a vote on me. I don't need to be active for you to do that. You just need to post something in the thread and when I'm here I'll respond to it.
Also, you voted me on the 12th of may. I had posted that day, the day before, and the day before that. If you actually wanted to interact with me and sort me that way you could very easily have done so.
ok fair enough.
hi ausuka, i feel like you've been skating by this game for quite a while, and id ont' have a good sense of your read or for what you're thinking this game.
i think your stated scumreads lining up exactly with the people on your wagon is quite awful
where do you get that impression? i made a bob push recently, which sure was very likely wrong, but i definitely wouldn't call it skating by?

what i'm thinking for this game is
{aus, detective pika pika} obv
{garmr, bob} i don't really see why scum pulls off this fakeclaim here; garmr wasn't under that much pressure.
{urap, exilon} seem genuinely scumhunty
{gamma, inferno} feel kind of town and i don't have any points against either


this leaves {sasha, skitter, egix}; i was tr'ing sasha based on bob's push who i was scumreading more but that's clearly wrong so ? unless urap or exilon is scum, there is exactly 0 scum on the initial sasha wagon fmpov which is pretty damning for him. egix i didn't really townread him and i thought his push on me was weird (you posted three times since 1191 but now i'm gaining popularity you bring it up?) for you i've brought up a few points and for someone who isn't scumreading anyone and is pushing a nullread you seem to be really insistent on trying to lynch said nullread.

i mean i see why that looks bad. but i was townreading a lot of players who are not those three on my wagon and not you three, so you three were kind of suspect anyway, and for you and egix it was the way you pushed me that seemed suspect, so there's a reason for it.
That's not something you say about someone you know is a VT.
Yep, looks like we've got ourselves a faker.
In post 1795, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1792, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1598, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1430, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1412, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1396, skitter30 wrote:If you want a line-by-line response i can do that, but not till i'm at a pc(much) later today

I think that you're basically using this argument with me as a way to stay engaged with the thread and to look busy - since this argument started this is basically what you've been posting about, and what your content is about.

But despite this, you're not actually doing anything about it - vote me if you think i'm scum, don't spend a week writing walls in my direction and dancing around the read.

(I believe there's scum in exilon/garmr byw)

Also a lot of the things you're calling me out on a personality thing; we have very different definitions of pushing (as i went over already with hrg iirc)

Kinda hard to interact with ausuka more when she hasn't really been posting. And of course i voted ausuka cuz i think she should be pushed, why would you say i voted hef 'not because she's scummy or should be pushed'? And yeah i at least partially switched off of you since it wasn't getting traction. Thjs is scummh because ....

I also don't think it's fair to attribute the stall in the game to me given that i'm easily one of the most active players ffs.
you've made no attempt to interact with me: you simply parked a vote on me. I don't need to be active for you to do that. You just need to post something in the thread and when I'm here I'll respond to it.
Also, you voted me on the 12th of may. I had posted that day, the day before, and the day before that. If you actually wanted to interact with me and sort me that way you could very easily have done so.
ok fair enough.
hi ausuka, i feel like you've been skating by this game for quite a while, and id ont' have a good sense of your read or for what you're thinking this game.
i think your stated scumreads lining up exactly with the people on your wagon is quite awful
where do you get that impression? i made a bob push recently, which sure was very likely wrong, but i definitely wouldn't call it skating by?

what i'm thinking for this game is
{aus, detective pika pika} obv
{garmr, bob} i don't really see why scum pulls off this fakeclaim here; garmr wasn't under that much pressure.
{urap, exilon} seem genuinely scumhunty
{gamma, inferno} feel kind of town and i don't have any points against either


this leaves {sasha, skitter, egix}; i was tr'ing sasha based on bob's push who i was scumreading more but that's clearly wrong so ? unless urap or exilon is scum, there is exactly 0 scum on the initial sasha wagon fmpov which is pretty damning for him. egix i didn't really townread him and i thought his push on me was weird (you posted three times since 1191 but now i'm gaining popularity you bring it up?) for you i've brought up a few points and for someone who isn't scumreading anyone and is pushing a nullread you seem to be really insistent on trying to lynch said nullread.

i mean i see why that looks bad. but i was townreading a lot of players who are not those three on my wagon and not you three, so you three were kind of suspect anyway, and for you and egix it was the way you pushed me that seemed suspect, so there's a reason for it.
That's not something you say about someone you know is a VT.
Yep, looks like we've got ourselves a faker.
If I listed gamma as a strong tr someone would have caught it and asked me why and I would've been unable to give a response.


Spoiler:
In post 1917, u r a person 2 wrote:So given that the following people are town, and at this point I do think it's a given
Pikachu
Garmr
Bob

and given that Gamma can only be scum if Ausuka is
and given that at minimum one of skitter and ausuka is town

Possible scum are
Ausuka + Gamma
Ausuka OR Skitter
Egix
Exilon

Possibile teams are
Ausuka + Gamma + Egix
Ausuka + Gamma + Exilon

Ausuka + Egix + Exilon
Skitter + Egix + Exilon

Of those 4 teams, Egix, Ausuka, and Exilon are found in 3 of 4
Skitter is found in 1/4

Given Town!Ausuka comes into D4 with a check,
The best lynches are Egix and Exilon

There is no team that does not include at least one of the two, so there is no way that I can think of (I haven't looked at the normal roles list) for town to lose tomorrow by mislynching one and then lynching the other.

Further, if one of them is a mislynch, then it is confirmed that Ausuka AND Gamma are scum.
If neither is a mislynch, then we are at 5p, 4T, 1S and 2 unconfirmed in {Skitter, Ausuka}

Thus, fmpov we're in auto right now without the benefit of further checks. This feels unbalanced, but I have to believe that's because scum chose to never nk the IC, and also never hit a PR.

Now, from our IC, DP's pov

Possible scum are
Ausuka + Gamma
Ausuka OR Skitter
Egix
Exilon
URAP

Possible Teams
Possibile teams are
Ausuka + Gamma + Egix
Ausuka + Gamma + Exilon
Ausuka + Gamma + Urap

Ausuka + Egix + Exilon
Skitter + Egix + Exilon
Ausuka + Egix + Urap
Ausuka + Exilon + Urap
Skitter + Egix + Urap
Skitter + Exilon + Urap

Of the 9 possible teams,
Ausuka appears in 6, or 66.7%
Egix appears in 5, or 55.5%
Exilon appears in 5, or 55.5%
Urap appears in 5, or 55.5%
Skitter appears in 3, or 33.3%
Gamma appears in 3, or 33.3%

Gamma only appears in teams with Ausuka, making her a bad lynch today (because why not just ausuka instead? It hits scum on more teams.)
Flipping town on any of {Egix, Exilon, Urap}today ensures that one of {Exilon, Egix} and one of {Skitter, Ausuka} are the remaining scum. If ausuka is town, she can clear one of them tomorrow, confirming the entire scum team from her pov, and confirming one scum to the town player left in {Egix, Exilon, Urap}

Skitter is a bad lynch because of how little it cuts down the possible pool of teams if she flips town.

Ausuka is a bad lynch because ya'll don't get the benefit of her check if she flips town. On the other hand, in every world where ausuka is town, skitter is scum, so this would guarantee that 5p lylo is achieved.

So, fmpov egix and exilon are fine lynches (i prefer egix of the two)
and from ya'll pov it should probably be ausuka.
In post 1918, u r a person 2 wrote:basically what I'm saying is that I guess I'll vote either egix or ausuka, and since I'm sure that ya'll will want ausuka over egix because of the above, I'll vote there

VOTE: ausuka

that's two votes on ausuka
In post 1919, u r a person 2 wrote:and just to summarize again fmpov

If ausuka is town, the team is exactly
Skitter + Egix + Exilon

If ausuka flips scum, flipping {Egix, Exilon, Gamma} in any order wins the game 100%
In post 1920, u r a person 2 wrote:I was kind of relying on skitter's setup spec, but is there a world where BOTH skitter and Ausuka are scum?

That would mean IC + Masons vs 3 scum of some variety. Would IC + Masons vs 3 goons be balanced? Seems like it might be?
In post 1921, Ausuka wrote:That doesn't account for the possibility that you are lynched. I know that the pool contains four. Let me find the truth tonight and you can lynch me d4. If we lynch scum Egix today that's auto.

Det, garmr, bob and gamma replacement you four at least should listen, they can't get the lynch without you.
In post 1922, u r a person 2 wrote:IC + Masons vs 3 goons would be somewhat similar to 10p mountainous with 3 goons without the drawback of playing days with even numbers, and with the added benefit of having a higher town:scum ratio (meaning harder for scum to derail lynches, and also giving town an extra 2 lynches)

Mountainous ev rates can be found here

It looks to me like adding an innocent child at higher slots (8:3, 9:2, etc) adds little to no expected value to town's winrate

adding 2 masons at lower slot numbers (7p, 5v2) increases town win rates significantly, but given how they are expecting the games to play out and by my own intuition, the value of masons to town ev should decrease as player count increases.

So I think that means it's not balanced at ic + masons vs goons
In post 1923, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1921, Ausuka wrote:That doesn't account for the possibility that you are lynched. I know that the pool contains four. Let me find the truth tonight and you can lynch me d4. If we lynch scum Egix today that's auto.

Det, garmr, bob and gamma replacement you four at least should listen, they can't get the lynch without you.
the bottom half of my large wall is from our IC's perspective, and does take into account lynching me.
In post 1926, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1923, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1921, Ausuka wrote:That doesn't account for the possibility that you are lynched. I know that the pool contains four. Let me find the truth tonight and you can lynch me d4. If we lynch scum Egix today that's auto.

Det, garmr, bob and gamma replacement you four at least should listen, they can't get the lynch without you.
the bottom half of my large wall is from our IC's perspective, and does take into account lynching me.
i don't understand how your wall reaches the conclusion I'm a good lynch. Like, it says I'm most likely by raw probability, but I think there are better ways of finding scum than assigning all scumteams equal value, and besides, no town composition loses anything by lynching me d4 instead of d3.
In post 1928, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1926, Ausuka wrote:i don't understand how your wall reaches the conclusion I'm a good lynch. Like, it says I'm most likely by raw probability, but I think there are better ways of finding scum than assigning all scumteams equal value, and besides, no town composition loses anything by lynching me d4 instead of d3.
The crux of it is, in a world where i'm NOT conf!town (all town!pov's but mine),

yours is the highest % lynch that makes another slot conf!scum if you flip town.
In post 1929, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1927, Exilon wrote:And also what happened your belief in Ausuka claim?
garmr/bob became conf!town and I had a minute to sit down and run the numbers
In post 1930, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1928, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1926, Ausuka wrote:i don't understand how your wall reaches the conclusion I'm a good lynch. Like, it says I'm most likely by raw probability, but I think there are better ways of finding scum than assigning all scumteams equal value, and besides, no town composition loses anything by lynching me d4 instead of d3.
The crux of it is, in a world where i'm NOT conf!town (all town!pov's but mine),

yours is the highest % lynch that makes another slot conf!scum if you flip town.
But if you don't lynch me I could confirm the entire team???
In post 1932, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1930, Ausuka wrote:But if you don't lynch me I could confirm the entire team???
(again, from all town!pov's that are not mine)
If we mislynch today, yes you can confirm the entire team, but ONLY TO YOU.

Everyone else still has to decide if you are scum or town

so it's not really confirmed.

It's the same issue as with my pov. The game is auto from my pov, but not to the slots that matter (conf!towns)
In post 1933, Ausuka wrote:5x vt
1x on nea
1x en det
2x masons
1x ic

1x goon
1x rolecop
1x roleblocker

Is that setup (or something else along the lines of stacked scum) balanced?

Pedit: 5p lylo isn't good. In 5p lylo you have exi, urap and egix and have to find the town. Compare this to outright winning the game.
If you lynch me d4 I confscum 3 slots instead of just one. What do we gain by lynching me today instead of d4 again?

Pedit: if we mislynch today we also lose 5p lylo so...
In post 1935, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1933, Ausuka wrote:5x vt
1x on nea
1x en det
2x masons
1x ic

1x goon
1x rolecop
1x roleblocker

Is that setup (or something else along the lines of stacked scum) balanced?

Pedit: 5p lylo isn't good. In 5p lylo you have exi, urap and egix and have to find the town. Compare this to outright winning the game.
If you lynch me d4 I confscum 3 slots instead of just one. What do we gain by lynching me today instead of d4 again?

Pedit: if we mislynch today we also lose 5p lylo so...
It's not possible because I'm town.

It's also not possible to either egix or exilon because (from their point of view) they are town.

but yeah, sure, you can argue that. You're arguing that the team is PRECISELY egix + Exilon + Me, so good luck with that one tomorrow if you succeed today
In post 1936, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1934, Exilon wrote:I agree with your analysis after a first readthrough.
My vote's already in the right place.

However, why are we not considering mafia roleblocker, or other similar actions?
I agree it is, and I'll vote egix again in a heartbeat if the conf!towns are interested

but I can't imagine they will be. I wouldn't be in their position.
In post 1937, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1933, Ausuka wrote:Pedit: if we mislynch today we also lose 5p lylo so...
If you are town and we mislynch you today, the lynch options in 5p are {Egix, Exilon, Urap} and only one of those will be town in that situation (again, all from conf!town pov)

So in that situation it's only a 33% chance to lose, and that's if they can't find a town read on me.


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Post Post #2480 (isolation #213) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:34 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Round 5: It's day 1

One of these is town that is mislynching town on day 1
The other is scum pushing a mislynch

Can you decide?

:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:

Spoiler:
In post 233, Egix96 wrote:
In post 227, bob3141 wrote:
In post 176, Egix96 wrote:
In post 171, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:What are your thoughts on Sash? I like Asuka’s breakdown of Sash’s vote on Bob.
I think Sasha's reasoning for voting bob is pretty reachy but I don't think it makes him scum. (meta reasons)

I'd like to see a bit more content from him before giving a full-fledged read.
Could you enlighten us on these meta reasons.

As all i can see is you describing what happened to him in prevous games.


If sash does flip mafia then it appears very much your trying to diffuse his bandwagons while staying on the fence. So what is the reason in sash town meta that you think this is him being town
I think that Sasha is more awkward as town than as scum.
Tbf I only have actual play experience with town!Sash but there is one past scumgame of his that I skimmed once while I was trying to read him in a past game.
In post 232, ChannelDelibird wrote:FYI, I'm going to be limited to phoneposting until Sunday evening.

Those squeamish about the Sash wagon should come hang out on the infinitely more wholesome RuiRui wagon, which grows more righteous with every passing minute since her last (awful) post.
Yep, I can dig this.

VOTE: Rui
In post 347, Egix96 wrote:
In post 335, Inferno390 wrote:
In post 329, Egix96 wrote:
In post 277, Inferno390 wrote:So Egix, which one of us do you think is scum?
Neither atm
So if Sash is town, who is scum?
Rui, cby... urap is third I guess, I have everyone else at least null.
In post 503, Egix96 wrote:
In post 486, Garmr wrote:
In post 475, skitter30 wrote:
In post 473, u r a person 2 wrote:let's just lynch sash
^^^^^ bad reaction
especially in the event of town!sash
I'm town and I have the same reaction.
This bugs me... I don't think you'd have said "I'm town and..." if you actually were. Feels forced.

Not moving my vote btw. Main reason why I don't feel like voting urap is because I doubt that scum would say that someone who's tunnelled on them is "clearly town" because that normally doesn't end well (it's very hard to do without it looking like TMI).
In post 702, Egix96 wrote:
In post 695, High Risk Gamble wrote:
In post 233, Egix96 wrote:Yep, I can dig this.

VOTE: Rui
It reads as you have this slot an null or at a post scum lean, correct me if I'm wrong?
Is this really the strongest read you have to go with at this stage?
I generally find forming townreads to be easier than forming scumreads. Normally on Day 1 of a game I end up having a good number of townreads but rarely any strong scumreads, only leans in that direction.

So yes, at this point RuiRui is the closest thing I have to a full scumread.
In post 769, Egix96 wrote:
In post 742, skitter30 wrote:
In post 739, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 729, skitter30 wrote:which ones?
, and 635
You tell me if they are town to you...
Dont like the first post, the second two are nai imo

VOTE: sash

^^^^ entirely a compromise eod vote. I dont scumread him and i dont think he's flipping scum
If you're voting just to compromise, Rui is a better choice here

Spoiler:
In post 636, u r a person 2 wrote:so if you think sash is town, let's vote ruirui because I don't think you or inferno are scum and if scum is complacent, I don't think my wagon is clean.
In post 638, u r a person 2 wrote:VOTE: rui rui
In post 670, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 663, Garmr wrote:Just want to straighten this out you guys think rui rui is scum if sash is town right?
uh, i think almost for certain they are not svs because of how they ended up as counter wagons at one point

I think that if Sash is town, then that means both wagons (mine and sash) were on town. Given that scenario, it seems unlikely that all 3 other people (and all 4 overall) were town. In this world, I'd say that ruirui is the most likely to be scum.
In post 679, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 678, skitter30 wrote:also scum!sash unvotes his cw because .....
let's flip ruirui
In post 740, u r a person 2 wrote:skitter you should stick with rui, im coming around on town sash
In post 741, u r a person 2 wrote:and everyone off the rui wagon should be asking themselves why they aren't on the rui wagon with such little time left
In post 746, u r a person 2 wrote:on the other hand rui is a terrific compromise wagon.

An argument can't be made for why the slot is town
The slot is going to have to be sorted eventually

and most importantly, you think sash is town
In post 789, u r a person 2 wrote:how about ruirui?
In post 796, u r a person 2 wrote:vote ruirui

gogogogo don't wait don't think just do it
In post 805, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 799, Sashaddin wrote:I know I'm green. From my pov, voting Ruirui makes some sense strategically then. However, I don't see much scum in her 11 posts. What's the best option for me here?
if you're town, voting ruirui is way more plus town than getting lynched.
In post 844, u r a person 2 wrote:Hey, do you guys think rui rui would be more likely to check into this thread prior to the deadline as town or as scum? Scum, yeah?

And even if you don't think it's alignment indicative, I think we can all agree that it's pretty anti-town to not be around much at all in the last few days before the deadline while being wagoned?

This is clearly the better choice for today, and I'm disappointed with those of you who did not see that.


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Post Post #2481 (isolation #214) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:44 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

~~~Bonus round -- ROUND 1!~~~

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Here's Egix interacting with Almost50, having no significant read on him or interaction with him until eventually soft bussing/distancing!

Spoiler:
In post 123, Egix96 wrote:
In post 109, Almost50 wrote:BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Were you waiting for him to get lynched? Cuz I was thinking him not posting so far may have pointed to him having rolled Scum and didn't like it.
Why are you trying to outguess the mod? Isn't that, like, a huge no-no?
In post 182, Egix96 wrote:
In post 165, Almost50 wrote:
In post 163, davesaz wrote:
Edit: Prodded MariaR, Gnelf, & Shema
Scum team identified in full. :P
Insert obligatory "Lurking is NAI" comment here
In post 184, Egix96 wrote:
In post 183, Almost50 wrote:
In post 182, Egix96 wrote:
In post 165, Almost50 wrote:
In post 163, davesaz wrote:
Edit: Prodded MariaR, Gnelf, & Shema
Scum team identified in full. :P
Insert obligatory "Lurking is NAI" comment here
4th scum detected :P
breaking_bad_you_got_me.gif
In post 318, Egix96 wrote:I'm not really feeling any of the current main wagons.
- Lolwagons: The votes on this one are mainly because their predecessor flaked as far as I can tell. I maintain that that's NAI so really I don't get what's going on here.
- Clem's posts are kinda fluffy but I take it he's the kind of guy who likes to meme a lot. Also, Dunnstral's on this wagon and you guys know I'm not a fan of him.
- A50 has a playstyle that seems very... eccentric, I guess you could say? Seems pretty null on the whole, don't really know how to read him.
Keeping my vote where it is.
In post 659, Egix96 wrote:
In post 637, PenguinPower wrote:I mean...it's in your best interest right now to go ahead and give your reads.
And thus lose the standoff?
Fine then, if it will allow the game to continue on as normal, then here goes.

Town
Egix
Penguin
Clem
0ver

Null
Gamma
Lovebird

Scum
Reaper
A50
Dunnstral
Gnelf

I could say more, but I'd rather not give scum!Gnelf any more ideas of how to write their own.
In post 759, Egix96 wrote:
In post 756, TTTT wrote:how is egix cleared as cop?
I'm not, that's just A50 trying to mislead you.
In post 819, Egix96 wrote:VOTE: Reaper
I don't think it makes sense for maf!Dunn to vote town!me and then immediately switch.
Aorn ROS is my main suspect but I'm fine with lynching A50 or T4 instead.



And here's Egix on HRG/Skygazer in this game!

Spoiler:
In post 702, Egix96 wrote:
In post 695, High Risk Gamble wrote:
In post 233, Egix96 wrote:Yep, I can dig this.

VOTE: Rui
It reads as you have this slot an null or at a post scum lean, correct me if I'm wrong?
Is this really the strongest read you have to go with at this stage?
I generally find forming townreads to be easier than forming scumreads. Normally on Day 1 of a game I end up having a good number of townreads but rarely any strong scumreads, only leans in that direction.

So yes, at this point RuiRui is the closest thing I have to a full scumread.
In post 703, Egix96 wrote:
In post 700, High Risk Gamble wrote:Skitter just really pings me with their posting and just feels like a lot of empty posting.
Now that's a spicy read.
In post 1056, Egix96 wrote:
In post 966, bob3141 wrote:And i think this little proding has drawn out sash sucm partner. It ceratinly explains why chb was killed rather than some off teh wagon

Looks like high risk gambler is sash partner
In post 965, High Risk Gamble wrote:We're not voting Sash or URA today.
Sash is just an easy target right now for a mis lynch.

If you think Sash is scum, then hold on to that for now until I can be bothered to explain why you're wrong and explain to me why X or Y are scum instead so we can work towards an actual lynch.
Gamble is practically begging to be lynched if Sasha flips red. Seems way too obvious for them to be scum together if you ask me. It would be wiser to just bus.
In post 1236, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1229, High Risk Gamble wrote:
In post 1177, u r a person 2 wrote:Why doesn't egix look like scum here? @HRG
Because Egix isn't posting like scum him.
Are you willing to elaborate on this or nah?
In post 2109, Egix96 wrote:
In post 2076, Skygazer wrote:
everybody:

claim if you have a modifier or not in your next post
To be clear, I don't have any modifiers.
In post 2145, Egix96 wrote:Yup

VOTE: Skygazer

L-1



Wait, Jim, can we see those last two again please?
In post 2109, Egix96 wrote:
In post 2076, Skygazer wrote:
everybody:

claim if you have a modifier or not in your next post
To be clear, I don't have any modifiers.
In post 2145, Egix96 wrote:Yup

VOTE: Skygazer

L-1
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Do Egix's abrupt read changes indicate s/s bussing/distancing?


:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:

You decide!
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Post Post #2482 (isolation #215) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:53 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

~~~BONUS ROUND 2 -- U R A Person 2 EDITION~~~

Here's u r a person 2 talking about "auto" play as scum!

Spoiler:
Draco Lucky wrote:
In post 1267, Ankamius wrote:
In post 1254, Draco Lucky wrote:
In post 1150, Ankamius wrote:That essentially is it

I can see if someone can kill
I can see if someone can stop night actions and strongwilled neighborize them

first was on Gemini
Second was on Jungle

Both were negative results and Jungle joined my neighborhood
At first I thought this was a likely town role because of the strangeness of the double investigative, but it always had to be scum.

Think about the possible setups

Jailkeeper
Watcher
traffic guru with venge kill
neighborizer + kill check (supposedly)
Bus driver

Scum has two prs and one of them bus, driver, is strong, but countered by confirmed!town traffic guru and jailkeeper. The neighborizor ction is confirmable and nothing about the role makes it red checkable by any of the other roles, so there is a good balance. One role can be countered pretty heavily but is strong. The other can't be countered, but is weaker. The utility is entirely based in the ability of the scum to use the neighborize to their benefit.

Consider if ank is town

Jailkeeper + traffic guru with venge + neighborizer that can check for the ability to roleblock + a check on the ability to kill vs watcher and bus driver

How does this make sense? The bus driver would not only be countered by the traffic guru and jailkeeper but also by both investigative actions from ank's slot, and the scum!watcher would be checkable by ank's slot, and the jail keeper's slot. The watcher ability, if it got a result, would have a 1/3 chance of pushing scum to lynch the venge slot (bad for scum), while a false positive from town!ank would also result in the free venge for town. It's simply too much town power + the ability for prs to confirm one another

This game is clearly more balanced with town watcher rather than town whatever ank is claiming.
incorrect.

1. Town only has two mislynches by default and if the vengeful is killed, most of the time it will EAT one of them. This can easily put town into MyLo on DAY TWO, which is absolutely insane for most setups. Town needs a backup plan for this to not singlehandedly break the game in favor for scum,
ESPECIALLY WITH SCUM BEING ABLE TO BUS DRIVE THEIR NIGHT ACTION TARGET TO AVOID DOCTORS AND WATCHERS
, which ensures that the scumteam can kill the strongest town N1.
2. The amount of power has with my role being town and yours being scum makes a lot of sense.

2a. scum can busdrive the jailkeep away from their NK target (which I would expect 99% of the time most scumteams would be using with a bus drive on N1). This puts doubt on the JK claim and/or the Doctor claim.
2b. the vengeful's night action is not likely to have any impact on the game since just knowing that somebody had a redirect used on them is not exactly very useful to the game unless another PR (namely only Gemini since I would know I was redirected) also targeted the same target. This is... not exactly very likely!
2c. my role has two parts, one of which is gated by a false guilty target (the vengeful), and the other of which can ONLY get a guilty on town (gemini). the neighborizer being strong-willed means that my claims of being redirected are inherently suspicious, especially if my result was redirected off the target I neighborized.
2d. Effectively,
the game is based around town's power roles being able to paint a pretty good picture of what's going on with enough context, but the individual parts are not confirmable.


Town having a Jailkeeper+OneShotDoctor and a double investigative is really strong for a 9p game,
that's why town was also given an anti-town role in the vengeful and scum were given the watcher in order to have very good odds of detecting at least one PR on night one.
The town was ALSO purposely designed in a way that a massclaim wouldn't singlehandedly break the game since the bus driver screws with results, the watcher helps scum build a narrative to help counter it, the vengeful redirection detector is also sketchy enough to be mislynchable in that scenario, and town is
specifically
designed in a way that makes it very hard to consolidate information accurately since none of it is technically confirmable as town.

So yes, town makes a lot more sense with my role as town over yours.

It fits the design of the game.
It's
REQUIRED
to counter the massive amounts of swing that the vengeful adds to the game if it's lynched D1 and vengekills town.
It's built into the setup that even if something goes wrong, my role is just as likely to even the odds with a really unlucky check as it is to end the game with a lucky check.

Watcher does
NOT
have these same interactions.
Watcher being town here means that the scumteam have the ability to detect two of the three PRs, AND can kill whoever the fuck they want via the bus driver, AND an extra possibility of getting full role info that town would not have via the neighborhood. And town in return gets the JK+Doc, the anti-town vengeful role, and... the ability to catch the bus driver! And every other PR in the game! The ability to be able to out PRs to the town or to the scum neighborizer!

That's absolutely ridiculous and not at all congruent with the rest of the town PRs like my role is.
It definitely is a lot of words. It happens to be completely wrong, but I'm not skilled enough in setup spec to tell you all the ways in which it is wrong. But it seems pretty ludicrous to me to suggest that the venge is anti town. If it were really anti town, towns wouldn't opt to take the shot. It doesn't take into account the benefit of being the lynch to seeing the wagons with clear eyes. I bet you'd find that venge shots have a > rand success rate, and that this game was not an anomaly.

And Ank talks about how much power is required to offset the venge, but from town!ank's point of view we lynched a pr, and had the venge shoot scum, and the game was still auto by D2. If a VT had been venged, and the same night actions made, it wouldn't even have been auto, it would have just been solved. That's crazy. That's best case scenario for scum, and they're walking into D2 with a game solved against them. That's not realistic.

u r a person 2 wrote:okay it wouldn't be solved but it would still be auto, lol

Like, scum in this setup needs the pr interactions to wifom the game, and it needs ank's kill detector to avoid lynching the venge
Draco Lucky wrote:
In post 1281, Ankamius wrote:I think you're forgetting that the game was autosolved because jungle and I were DECEIVING everybody else

the game was not actually solved once I outed my role
in the world where our alignments are reversed and you were town, fypov

-you're town
Gem is town
Starwing is town
lynch 1 in {jm, vedith, me}
you check one and gem checks one
one of you survives and either red checks or clears

If the venge had hit a vt (say, vedith)
Then it's 2 scums in {RC, me, JM} and if you get past mylo, it's auto

sorry i called it auto before but it's hard keeping track of these hypotheticals

it's still way town-sided without your ability to identify venge.


And here's urap in this game insisting the game is auto over 10 times!
Spoiler:
In post 1917, u r a person 2 wrote:So given that the following people are town, and at this point I do think it's a given
Pikachu
Garmr
Bob

and given that Gamma can only be scum if Ausuka is
and given that at minimum one of skitter and ausuka is town

Possible scum are
Ausuka + Gamma
Ausuka OR Skitter
Egix
Exilon

Possibile teams are
Ausuka + Gamma + Egix
Ausuka + Gamma + Exilon

Ausuka + Egix + Exilon
Skitter + Egix + Exilon

Of those 4 teams, Egix, Ausuka, and Exilon are found in 3 of 4
Skitter is found in 1/4

Given Town!Ausuka comes into D4 with a check,
The best lynches are Egix and Exilon

There is no team that does not include at least one of the two, so there is no way that I can think of (I haven't looked at the normal roles list) for town to lose tomorrow by mislynching one and then lynching the other.

Further, if one of them is a mislynch, then it is confirmed that Ausuka AND Gamma are scum.
If neither is a mislynch, then we are at 5p, 4T, 1S and 2 unconfirmed in {Skitter, Ausuka}

Thus, fmpov we're in auto right now without the benefit of further checks. This feels unbalanced, but I have to believe that's because scum chose to never nk the IC, and also never hit a PR.

Now, from our IC, DP's pov

Possible scum are
Ausuka + Gamma
Ausuka OR Skitter
Egix
Exilon
URAP

Possible Teams
Possibile teams are
Ausuka + Gamma + Egix
Ausuka + Gamma + Exilon
Ausuka + Gamma + Urap

Ausuka + Egix + Exilon
Skitter + Egix + Exilon
Ausuka + Egix + Urap
Ausuka + Exilon + Urap
Skitter + Egix + Urap
Skitter + Exilon + Urap

Of the 9 possible teams,
Ausuka appears in 6, or 66.7%
Egix appears in 5, or 55.5%
Exilon appears in 5, or 55.5%
Urap appears in 5, or 55.5%
Skitter appears in 3, or 33.3%
Gamma appears in 3, or 33.3%

Gamma only appears in teams with Ausuka, making her a bad lynch today (because why not just ausuka instead? It hits scum on more teams.)
Flipping town on any of {Egix, Exilon, Urap}today ensures that one of {Exilon, Egix} and one of {Skitter, Ausuka} are the remaining scum. If ausuka is town, she can clear one of them tomorrow, confirming the entire scum team from her pov, and confirming one scum to the town player left in {Egix, Exilon, Urap}

Skitter is a bad lynch because of how little it cuts down the possible pool of teams if she flips town.

Ausuka is a bad lynch because ya'll don't get the benefit of her check if she flips town. On the other hand, in every world where ausuka is town, skitter is scum, so this would guarantee that 5p lylo is achieved.

So, fmpov egix and exilon are fine lynches (i prefer egix of the two)
and from ya'll pov it should probably be ausuka.
In post 1923, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1921, Ausuka wrote:That doesn't account for the possibility that you are lynched. I know that the pool contains four. Let me find the truth tonight and you can lynch me d4. If we lynch scum Egix today that's auto.

Det, garmr, bob and gamma replacement you four at least should listen, they can't get the lynch without you.
the bottom half of my large wall is from our IC's perspective, and does take into account lynching me.
In post 1932, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1930, Ausuka wrote:But if you don't lynch me I could confirm the entire team???
(again, from all town!pov's that are not mine)
If we mislynch today, yes you can confirm the entire team, but ONLY TO YOU.

Everyone else still has to decide if you are scum or town

so it's not really confirmed.

It's the same issue as with my pov. The game is auto from my pov, but not to the slots that matter (conf!towns)
In post 1942, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1940, Exilon wrote:No, I mean, if there's roleblocker we're not getting an Ausuka result
Which is kind of a wrench in town's plans (if I understood correctly), and is "guaranteed" to happen if Ausuka is scum so basically day 4 we'll be having fun trying to decide if we're buying her claim or not, I guess
okay so from my/your!town pov

the game is already auto, and roles be damned. Refer to the top half of my wall post and just switch my name with yours and you should see that pretty easily

But from conf!town positions, the best lynch is ausuka, meaning that a roleblock, etc. on ausuka is irrelelvent because we're lynching her today anyway.
Again, see the bottom half of my wall and just switch my name and yours for analysis from you!town's pov.
In post 2007, u r a person 2 wrote:pikachu is IC

Gamr and Bob are technically not clear but are like 99.999% masons

Ausuka is scum who is claiming odd night nea

skitter is town claiming even night detective

I'm town

and egix + one of {gamma, exilon} are final scum

game is auto from pov of town!{me, egix, exilon} but exilon can't seem to figure that out

Ausuka is the best lynch from the conf!town slots, but they can't seem to figure that out

and either of {Exilon, Egix} are ideal from my pov because, as i said, auto
In post 2011, u r a person 2 wrote:i'll pull up the post for you that you said you would go through on your own one sec

it's not an opinion, lol

literally, if you are town and believe that the masons are real, it's auto

lose your calm all you want
In post 2014, u r a person 2 wrote:i don't know what you're talking about, mate

you don't seem to be accepting that the game is auto from your pov which only makes sense if you're scum

Either agree with the analysis, or show me why im wrong but don't threaten to throw a hissy fit lolol
In post 2016, u r a person 2 wrote:conf town is being stubborn and wrongheaded. he should be voting for ausuka from his pov

but he's voting you

and voting you is a fine vote fmpov because, again, auto

so why would i fight it

again, this should be obvious

this game is boring now because WE'RE IN AUTO and anything to move it along is fine by me
In post 2017, u r a person 2 wrote:i remember you saying you agreed to it on first pass. i don't remember you going back and doing the analysis and confirming it, and your synopsis to sky didn't say "hey, we're in auto fmpov" so i figured you didn't get it or were simply scum

apologies if i missed a post somewhere
In post 2028, u r a person 2 wrote:no, not good enough. you don't think it's auto because you think there could be a twist. it's a normal game, so every possible scum role is available for you

What possible twist could make it not auto?
In post 2138, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 2132, Exilon wrote:I havent gotten around to doing the whole math urap2 sorry but doesn't seem like it'll be necessary after this
yeah i mean why would you want to figure out why it's auto from your pov

this is also scum

guess I was wrong on egix
In post 2259, u r a person 2 wrote:Driving back now. Be in place tomorrow. Literally auto so pick one of them and let's go


Does urap avoid commiting to solving through reads as scum when presented with a challenging mechanical situation as scum?


:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:

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Post Post #2483 (isolation #216) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:01 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

~~~SUPER VCA BONUS ROUND~~~

Here's literally the only EoD lynch that u r a person 2 and Egix were not both on the same person! Boy VCA sure is helpful, just like NKA~ :3 :3 :3
In post 1731, tris wrote:
VC 2.FINAL
Sashaddin (6):
Gamma Emerald , Garmr , bob3141 , Ausuka , Exilon , u r a person 2
LYNCH!

Ausuka (3):
Egix , Inferno390 , Sashaddin
Egix96 (2):
u r a person 2 , skitter30
skitter30 (1):
Detective Pikachu

Not Voting:


With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.
Is u r a person scum for hammering Sashaddin when I basically said not to do that? Has he been consistently acting out a scum agenda?

Or is he town for directly opposing the preference of the IC?

Were all three scum on the lynch wagon both day 1 and day 2?

Is Egix town for pushing Ausuka on day 2 over Sashaddin?

Or is Egix scum for his push on Ausuka being so forgettable?

:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:

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Post Post #2484 (isolation #217) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:05 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

~~~What's a real towntell? The JUXTAPOSITION home suite!~~~

Is Egix town for calling out a read against three loud, vocal town that he doesn't understand?
In post 1063, Egix96 wrote:
In post 987, Garmr wrote:Bob is town.
In post 991, Inferno390 wrote:Yeah Bob is town here.
In post 1006, skitter30 wrote:i think bob is town
Whatever you three are seeing, I'm not seeing it...
Or is u r a person 2 town for making a complex townread on Bob that separates scummy behavior from iioa posts that can look scummy at a glance?
In post 75, u r a person 2 wrote: comes from town I think.

Like it actually looks scummy af but I think it actually reads townie from some new players.
:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:
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Post Post #2485 (isolation #218) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:15 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 2478, Detective Pikachu wrote:Round 3: It's day 4.

One of these two is a bus! The other is town voting scum.
In post 2143, u r a person 2 wrote:pika, bob, garmr still town

leaving

exilon, sky, egix

VOTE: sky
because her informed revelation is untrue.
In post 2145, Egix96 wrote:Yup

VOTE: Skygazer

L-1
Can you decide which is which?


:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:
Actually can I come back to this

I had suggested that there could be a gated doctor

Why did neither of you think that Skygazer would be trueclaiming (even if scum) that she was informed {functionally that I was BP}

Also can we take a moment and appreciate how insane Skygazer's claim was in retrospect

Also why do neither of you respond to the explosion posts that happen during this day? The only thing weirder than day 4 is the fact that one of you didn't realize Exilon was incredibly town for the nature of Sky's push on him

Like URAP you thought BOTH insane 1v1s with Exilon were s/s? First that massive fight between Ausuka and Exi, and then Skygazer trying to fake-catch Exi in a quasi-mechanical guilty since he actually just inferred I was BP? Like what did you actually think happened at the end of day 4?
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Post Post #2486 (isolation #219) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:25 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 2276, bob3141 wrote:Atleast if det to look back he gets more info
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Post Post #2487 (isolation #220) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:40 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Egix can I also ask you about the development of your bob read
>You didn't think Sasha voting for bob made Sasha scum, but you don't really say your read of bob
>you call out three people on bob being town
>...but say you would vote gamble over bob
>then agree bob can be 'misguided town'
>and then vote Ausuka in part because of her bob read
>then, even though you're townreading bob enough to vote Ausuka because of him, you ask bob why... he's townreading you?

Spoiler:
In post 176, Egix96 wrote:
In post 171, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:What are your thoughts on Sash? I like Asuka’s breakdown of Sash’s vote on Bob.
I think Sasha's reasoning for voting bob is pretty reachy but I don't think it makes him scum. (meta reasons)

I'd like to see a bit more content from him before giving a full-fledged read.
In post 1063, Egix96 wrote:
In post 987, Garmr wrote:Bob is town.
In post 991, Inferno390 wrote:Yeah Bob is town here.
In post 1006, skitter30 wrote:i think bob is town
Whatever you three are seeing, I'm not seeing it...
In post 1173, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1155, u r a person 2 wrote:Can I get updated thoughts from Egix on Bob and HRG
Aorn if I had to vote either Bob or Gamble, I would vote Gamble.

Will that do for now?
In post 1235, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1199, Exilon wrote:But I doi have to say that I can see Bob being misguided town and for now that's where I'm leaning
Yeah I'm starting to see it too.
In post 1270, Egix96 wrote:VOTE: Ausuka

Yeah I don't really like the way that she pushed on bob, specifically.
In post 1272, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1271, Ausuka wrote:be more specific. what don't you like about it?
I find it a bit scummy that you described as being stretchy and forced, rather than just calling it out as being a loaded question.

And I can easily envision (inexperiencedTown)!bob thinking that asking a specifically-phrased loaded question in an attempt to bait a scummy response, would be a valid strategy. (Not saying that I personally would recommend it, but still.)
In post 1300, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1299, bob3141 wrote:I think

Exilion strong town lean
Egix slight town lean

Skitter slight town lean
inferno town lean
detective confirmed town by mod
gamr town

sach im scum reading
Aus scum read
urp2 sligh scum lean
HRG slight scum lean
Where did this come from?
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Post Post #2488 (isolation #221) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:58 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 2054, u r a person 2 wrote:unless DP is hiding a modifier
if the whole point of this gambit was to bait a townie seeming to TMI and getting a mislynch out of it, why does urap speculate about this

otoh, why did you think it would be me hiding a modifier and not one of the masons?
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Post Post #2489 (isolation #222) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:00 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 2059, Skygazer wrote:ima ask implo too
In post 2062, Skygazer wrote:this is fucky

implo said "not vanilla"

VOTE: Ausuka
I like that Skygazer pretended that implosion ever responds to a PM in 4 minutes
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Post Post #2491 (isolation #223) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:03 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Man this would be a wild 3-way bus

although it is weird that you keep talking about sky in the third person

Spoiler:
In post 2062, Skygazer wrote:this is fucky

implo said "not vanilla"

VOTE: Ausuka
In post 2063, u r a person 2 wrote:it's entirely possible that scum!sky didn't read fully enough to completely grasp the mechanical implications of this claim
In post 2064, Skygazer wrote:scum!sky claims VT here
In post 2071, u r a person 2 wrote:MY guess is this

sky didn't fully read and neither of her scum partners are online now

you asked her to claim, and in an attempt to pocket you and keep ausuka alive, she claimed that 2 town had modifiers (which would make both you and ausuka town)

then when we began conversing and the implications of this claim to the, in this world, TWO town in {egix, urap, exilon} she basically goes "whoops" and hard busses with the "non vanilla" bit
In post 2072, u r a person 2 wrote:or, second guess, it was all a ploy to try and get sky cleared enough to get through lylo by setting up the hard bus
In post 2073, Skygazer wrote:>implying that if i was scum fake-claiming informed i wouldn't have read first
In post 2074, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 2072, u r a person 2 wrote:or, second guess, it was all a ploy to try and get sky cleared enough to get through lylo by setting up the hard bus
no, this doesn't make sense. It still requires sky to have not grasped the implications of the claim because there isn't a second claimed town!modifier if ausuka is scum
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Post Post #2492 (isolation #224) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:04 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 2077, u r a person 2 wrote:some town has failed to full claim their role (which is assuming they are just a BAD player)

or

you are just a bad player

I'd rather accuse you of being lazy than accuse someone of being awful at this game.
does urap say this if he's informed the IC is bp?
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Post Post #2493 (isolation #225) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:12 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 2114, Ausuka wrote:
In post 2110, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 2106, Ausuka wrote:I'm actually ascetic so there's the second modifier. This should make me confirmed town.
did you crumb this anywhere?
My username starts with a. So does ascetic.
Man Ausuka turning out all the stops if this is s/s theater

on the other hand, why are you asking about crumbs to the ascetic when ausuka is lolcatting lol
In post 2138, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 2132, Exilon wrote:I havent gotten around to doing the whole math urap2 sorry but doesn't seem like it'll be necessary after this
yeah i mean why would you want to figure out why it's auto from your pov

this is also scum

guess I was wrong on egix
damn if this isn't a post that I really hate
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Post Post #2494 (isolation #226) » Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:24 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 2215, bob3141 wrote:buttleproof
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Post Post #2503 (isolation #227) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:22 am

Post by Detective Pikachu »

In post 333, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 332, Inferno390 wrote:Then why would you ask this question?
If skitter wants to sort you, then shouldn’t she be asking you questions rather than the other way around?
This whole last section feels like you spewing Town in an attempt to get skitter to townread you.
I don’t like that.
Why can't I help her along the path? Isn't that what friends are for?
In post 334, u r a person 2 wrote:Oh, it is me spewing town, you're right about that. If you're town, that should be a good thing from your perspective. Why isn't it?
In post 336, u r a person 2 wrote:Like seriously. Someone has been asking me to provide content so that they can sort me for days. Now I'm providing content and you're shading it with a scum motivation, but what would the townie thing to do be? Not provide content? You're either tunneled or arguing in bad faith
In post 2423, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 2405, Egix96 wrote:
In post 704, High Risk Gamble wrote:So this is where I'm at after the catch up fully.

URA is obvious town right now
and the fact his wagon started is really bad.
I'm feel less like Sash scum with the VT claim and even though VT lynch / scum lynch isn't a bad choice day 1 I don't think Sash flips scum here.

I don't think that URA's wagon was all town either so Skitter, Inferno or RuiRui have 1-2 scum.

The current RuiRui wagon looks all town other than Skitter. Skitter is just looking for a lynch rather scum hunting and their voting patterns/reasons show this.

If it comes to it I'll vote RuiRui over Sash and URA but I think Skitter is just out right scum and it doesn't look like bussing.

VOTE: Skitter
YGTI
this is actually just spewing me town?
Actually one thing I think is interesting here is that when Inferno accuses you of spewing Skitter as town in an attempt to get her to townread you, you seem to deliberately misunderstand his argument so that you make it seem like you're spewing yourself town.

But in this point about Egix, you clearly understand that HRG would have been "spewing you town"

It's kinda like you're selective on whether you choose to understand the concept or not
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Post Post #2506 (isolation #228) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:52 am

Post by Detective Pikachu »

I mean you're obviously caught scum here. Skitter recognized that your reads day 1 were faked, Inferno got into a 1v1 with you, and your slot was under increasing pressure. Your entire scum team committed to saving your slot by lynching RuiRui and hoping they wouldn't get too much blowback for it, given that a day 1 scum lynch in a setup with no strongman and a bulletproof IC would be almost certainly game losing for scum. You killed CDB as a non-informational kill and to strengthen townreads on both you and Ausuka, even though his townreads on each of you were unreliable and tentative to change.

On day 2 you were so uninterested in NKA that you actually forgot it was day 2. You did some minor distancing with Ausuka, but got off when the new IC came in and asked for real pushes. Then, you hammered Sashaddin when there was no actual risk of a no lynch given that the IC was online and opposing his lynch; all this did was guarantee that I would not push a CFD onto Ausuka, who was one of my top suspects. Thanks to Garmr's hider claim gambit, this also allowed you to kill Inferno, who had been hard pushing you day 1 and was starting to reconsider his townread on you from day 2. This allowed his death to be read as non-informational while actually giving you the chance to get rid of the one person consistently scumreading you.

The next day you began by hoping you could continue your strategy of open wolfing by hard townreading Ausuka and buying her claim. However, when you realized you were losing both me and skitter because of your defense of Ausuka, you realized you needed to initiate some hard bussing since the game was rapidly approaching an auto-loss for scum. Hence you did a massively long-winded write up explaining why ausuka had to be bussed even though this contradicted your own reads and thought processes. However, you still recognized that none of your three slots would win in end-game. Things really went tits up when you were explaining to Skygazer some of the setup so far, and then she fake-claimed without realizing that *even though she was informed I was BP* that I had not actually claimed BP. The intention of this was to create a mechanical bus on Ausuka that would get Skygazer towncred. However, Skygazer messed it up, and then you nearly actually slipped that you knew I had a modifier. Since you realized I still hadn't claimed BP, you felt the need to hard bus Skygazer on day 4, thinking that I would claim before she was actually lynched. To your surprise, the town agreed with your one-post case and then Sky self hammered before her slot could save itself, while also spewing Exilon scum. You realized that if Exilon never got lynched, you would lose, so keeping analysis to a minimum you slightly pushed him day 5 hoping that bob would go back to his initial read.

Vis-a-vis you have been operating with a scum agenda in mind the entire game, whereas Egix is spewed town by his decision to push Ausuka immediately after my replace in and ask for real cases, as well as by his pure, real thought processes throughout the entire game.

Anyone who looks at the previous page and the "Juxtaposition" game must conclude that you are the scum in this scenario.

So, urap, would you like to concede now that your dastardly plans have all fallen through?
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Post Post #2509 (isolation #229) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:04 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Well most of the replace-outs weren't due to this game specifically; Gamma and HRG both siteflaked so those really are truly NAI. And cby was early in a game with a bp IC so I don't see that as necessarily super AI either. I honestly don't think the replacements on the scum slot this game are actually indicative of the overall scumteam's evaluation of their chances.
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Post Post #2511 (isolation #230) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:14 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Think I should do one for Egix too or is the meme already dank?
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Post Post #2515 (isolation #231) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:39 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

I mean there's a variety of my concerns there. The day 1 Ausuka read both skitter and inferno called out as reading as fake, which to me feels like it was partly due to it occurring one minute after your previous post which suggests you more thought you should be throwing out more townreads or it would sound good rather than that you were thinking about it
In post 323, u r a person 2 wrote:oh, bob is still town btw

Bob, how are you enjoying the game?
In post 324, u r a person 2 wrote:Ausuka, also town
Both made at 11:01

I so think all three scum being on the day 1 lynch is more frequent if it's due in part to your slot being under pressure

also, the way you switched to 3rd person with skygazer makes me wonder whether you were actually annoyed at her for creating a mechanical bus that guaranteed ausuka was lynched that day; if you are s/s that was pretty clearly unplanned and that may have been your indication you had to continue bussing her at that point

also, inferno starting to say that he was reconsidering his read on you toward the end of his iso does suggest that scum would have had additional motivation to kill there (although he was already on Ausuka so there was already motivation either way).

It would also be a lot easier to believe that the 1v1 with ausuka and skygazer weren't theater if they weren't totally bogged down in the mech POV; neither one is a hard push based on read but more of a "this is the best way to play this and anyone can see it regardless of my alignment." It looks pretty hard to fake aside from that pretty big issue where you don't really need to engage either one on a deeper level because both are basically mechanically necessary lynches.

If you are scum this game, that is basically the narrative I think.

The other thing is that I don't find nearly as many posts by Egix that bother me like I do with your posts. I mean, he does have 1/4th of your posts, so that's obviously one reason there's fewer things that will jump out. It's also that his writing style often feels hokey so things that would bother me a lot from other people ("Looks like we got ourselves a faker") doesn't bother me nearly as much from me from him here. But still, your ausuka townread, buying ausuka's claim, and setting up a mislynch on Exilon all feel really random to me. I guess partly that's just me having looked at Ausuka's claim and feeling like it seemed like bs from the start so you coming in with a "yeah that sounds" right is like ???

Obviously there's factors that suggest you're town as well, such as Ausuka's reaction to each of your pushes feeling a lot more like Ausuka's reaction to Exilon's push, and Ausuka basically having a very muted, flat response to each of Egix's votes on her. That and forgetting HRG was scum today which was... interesting, but I know you don't like me mentioning the dumbtells even if they're still part of the overall picture (either way, since some of them do seem to be pushing it).
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Post Post #2517 (isolation #232) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:46 pm

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Yes, my preference in 5-way was Egix-->Urap. Exilon was my pocket town and that's why I thought bob saying Exilon was his pref was "spicy" since that is the one of the three of you I have been saying was town the entire game. I didn't realize how much bob was ignoring my reads and instead going purely off his discussions with garmr in the mason PT which, I guess I should have played around. That and telling you both to unvote, but basically you had both voted for exilon, he hadn't said a preference between you two, and I was *just* starting to talk about how various people's reads had developed over the game.

Like, skitter and inferno both scumread you early, inferno townread you d2 then died, skitter townread you pretty much only coming out of the mechanical talk coming out of the push on ausuka. She consistently said egix's iso was easily fakeable and was bothered by him being too agreeable , but she also openly admitted that your playstyle was difficult for her to process. There's also certain things I think she was right to scumread you for on day 1 and it's not totally implausible for me that she more stopped scumreading you because you knew an effective set of strategies for manipulating her read of you rather than because she was actually wrong from her day 1 impressions.

Garmr thought that "you deserved to win as scum" which is always terrible omen for town when people start saying it so I kinda just want to throw his reads out the window in my mind

CDB had decent reads but he had doubts about you, even though he had you as town and egix as scum

bob had... almost phenomenal reads this game, he very succinctly summarized the towncase on you and the scumcase on egix in day 5 (which is why I was NOT expecting the exilon hammer), but he also kept saying that he wanted to "go back to his early reads" when his early reads actually included a scumread of you so... yeah that happened.

ruirui also didn't "like your pushes" but he was dead too fast to say more than that

So to be clear, while you have been universally townread by the townblock post day 4, days 1-2 literally everyone in the graveyard at some point said they had concerns about your slot even if you weren't one of their stong scumreads.

And unfortunately VCA and NKA provide me very little information, so mostly what I have from dead people is them saying they scumread you early in the game and townread you later in the game. But for many you were outside the PoE because they believed Exilon was scum. If they knew that Exilon was town, then I have to ask myself, how would they evaluate you vs. Egix.

Egix, if scum, has played a very conventional scum game that is well within his range as a scum player, although he made one very surprising decision (deciding to bus Ausuka on day 2) which is atypical for his scum play. Egix, if town, has played an unusually strong towngame but not an impossibly good one, although he seems weirdly disassociated for how strong his reads have been this game if town. His level of passivity this game also goes very strongly against his towngame, where he tends to react to specific posts and then push slots due to like one thing, whereas here he's spent more of the game sheeping and then sitting on wagons all day.

You, if scum, have done some very impressive theater with Ausuka and Skygazer and have wildly expanded your scum range. You, if town, have spent a significant chunk of the game hard defending Ausuka as a scum slot, until you did a massive push... after the slot was already practically doomed due to me and skitter both scumreading Ausuka.

The problem I'm having is that, looking at the big picture, Egix should almost certainly be scum here. Looking at the broad strokes, Egix is quite scummy. But when I read his iso, he doesn't really scream scum to me, and I can find no shortage of wolfy or questionable posts in your iso. Conversely, Ausuka and Skygazer's interactions with you are much harder to see as s/s than the muted, softball interactions between egix and ausuka. So in terms of broad strategy and associatives, egix is scum every time. In terms of individual posts that read as scummy, you are very scummy and egix... not so much. This leaves me with something of a problem given that only one of you is scum.

If I go to lazy reasoning, then we have wim and dumbtells, which strongly point to you being town. The wim thing is hard to say though, given you getting townread by skitter might have warped your meta in a significant way. But I also don't feel like you really stopped posting just because she started townreading you so... hmm. And the dumbtells could be due to cognitive load from playing as scum and trying to keep straight what you're informed of or not.

I'd say I'm still somewhere between 55% Egix scum and you 55% town but you have so many early wolfy posts that I find it very difficult to want to throw down a hammer with those odds. Like your push on sashaddin just reads so gross to me, your townread on ausuka I can't see where you're coming from in the early game, and I really hated the sashaddin hammer, the shade on exilon, and the exilon vote. The "auto" stuff also bugs me. There's a lot of very specific things I don't like in your iso, whereas with Egix its more... "well, he seems to have a very flat affect and is like mechanically analytical whereas his strong town games he links he seems more excited and almost kinda bloodthirsty" so this kinda reads like he can be scum here even though there's no specific post from him that I can easily point to and say "thar be scum"
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Post Post #2518 (isolation #233) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:51 pm

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Oh yeah, Exilon also thought Ausuka spewed Egix scum which fit his solve anyway, so actually I think the strongest advocate of Egix scum and you town is the guy you lynched yesterday LOL

Exilon was one of the few people on day 1 consistently calling you TvT with Inferno and he was one of the strongest supporters of Egix scum (i.e. )
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Post Post #2520 (isolation #234) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:45 pm

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idk, I feel like more time I give it the more time there is to evaluate towntells or give scum a chance to slip.

It's harder in 3-way because of the mecahnical lock between you two (kinda why I wanted this to be more how 5-way went so then I could talk with bob directly about things).

Like looking back on Exilon's case on Egix, one thing that bothers me is that and are fencesitting, but they're also 15 minutes apart, which suggests to me that Egix either was really reviewing the games or at least wanted to put on a convincing show of doing so

but Exilon is right that and are weird and the movement to is a bit surprising

I'm inclined to agree that 233 is, on the whole, kinda a scummy post. But it was also the "slam dunk" post that made Exilon so sure on Egix for most of the game but I'm just not nearly as sure as he is.

In comparison, I feel like I understand skitter's problems with you in a lot more. It also bothers me how you twice did the "oh and one more townread" post, first with bob and then with Ausuka as you do in and . I can very easily see you repeating that behavior (throwing an extra naked townread after two short reads townreads) to obfuscate your reads as scum post-flip, and I can see that as obfuscating behavior slightly more easily than I can see it as snap reads reactions

It really bothers me that in looking at Exilon's case I can get why he didn't like Egix on day 1 but I also don't feel like it's nearly as much as a slam dunk "this is a scummy post" as skitter's reaction to your Sash vote even though skitter didn't hard scumread you for it just because of that one post

still can keep thinking about bob's arguments, probably keep playing with that tomorrow.
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Post Post #2524 (isolation #235) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:17 pm

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I can still see coming from scum very easily, didn't do the town meta review of urap yet and still want to think more about bob's case arguments on egix associatives.

Egix it is not easier to reevaluate you with you basically just vanishing from the thread fyi, we're not like pressed for time but we are over the halfway mark here and I am starting to reach the point even for me that I wanna just hammer you and call it a wash if you do somehow flip town
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Post Post #2526 (isolation #236) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:01 pm

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idk why does it feel like you only pop in whenever someone asks you something directly?

like it's felt like you don't want to be here ever since ausuka went down
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Post Post #2527 (isolation #237) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:05 pm

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I wrote a big post on urap being scum yesterday and you had no reaction lol

you didn't even comment on it
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Post Post #2529 (isolation #238) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:19 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

I mean, I'm not. The reason I haven't voted yet is that I'm not sure lol. If I was sure then I would have voted by now.

As I said, gamestate and associatives heavily point to you, but urap's iso and individual posts ping me more. I think the associatives weighed more heavily for bob and skitter.

Like, are you scum? I'm probably going to *eventually* hammer you if you're scum, but if you're town there may still be hope. If there is town in your iso there is a chance I will find it but if you're not then I probably just won't. I don't know what else to say.

Like usually in lylo I want to find something like "town never says THIS" or "this comes from scum EVERY time"

but in this game there are things in each of your isos that are kinda concerning, one or two specific posts from urap that bother me quite a bit, and a big hole where I keep expecting to find a really strong towntell from you. the closest I get is your bob post, which unfortunately is wrong but wrong in a kinda townie way (and also kinda doesn't jive well with your read progression), and your push on Ausuka immediately after I repped in which is like, interesting timing to choose to bus, particularly for you given I know that you don't really see yourself as the solo-endgame type

If you're town I don't really want you to just give up hope or stop having fun. Actually I hope you're still having fun as scum too, idk I don't feel like this reads like how you approached 5-way lylo as town in one of those games you linked but this is kinda a diff scenario too. You seem demoralized and out of it which could be because you think you've let your team down as scum I guess? I promise you, you didn't, even if you self-hammered here that would not be letting your team down. you should feel proud of this game regardless of your alignment frankly

you've also been kinda vague on how this game has exceeded your scumrange even though you argued it does

like I COULD hammer urap here for his sasha vote, his ausuka townread, or his exilon shade post ausuka hammer... those are three legitimate reasons to lynch urap this game. But I can't do that when I look at your iso and see like, three words with HRG and that level of interaction basically matches how you play scum.
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Post Post #2530 (isolation #239) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:38 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

I find it really funny that you just both basically told me to hammer Egix lol
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Post Post #2533 (isolation #240) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:42 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

I did say that usually my wins in lylo involve scum self-hammering right

There's a word for my playstyle but I can't think of it off-hand

So really the question is...
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Post Post #2534 (isolation #241) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:42 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

ARE YOU READY
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Post Post #2535 (isolation #242) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:42 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

TO SEE
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Post Post #2536 (isolation #243) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:43 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

THE RESULTS
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Post Post #2537 (isolation #244) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:43 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

OF
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Post Post #2538 (isolation #245) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:43 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

~
~
~
J
U
X
T
A
P
O
S
I
T
I
O
N
~
~
~


Image
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Post Post #2539 (isolation #246) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:44 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

LET'S DO A COUNTDOWN!
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Post Post #2540 (isolation #247) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:44 pm

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10
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Post Post #2541 (isolation #248) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:44 pm

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9
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Post Post #2542 (isolation #249) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:44 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

8
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Post Post #2543 (isolation #250) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:45 pm

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7
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Post Post #2544 (isolation #251) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:45 pm

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6
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Post Post #2545 (isolation #252) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:45 pm

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5
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Post Post #2546 (isolation #253) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:45 pm

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4
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Post Post #2547 (isolation #254) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:45 pm

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3
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Post Post #2548 (isolation #255) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:45 pm

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2
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Post Post #2549 (isolation #256) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:46 pm

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1
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Post Post #2550 (isolation #257) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:46 pm

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VOTE: Egix
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Post Post #2551 (isolation #258) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:46 pm

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GG!
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Post Post #2553 (isolation #259) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:52 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

I honestly think your bob post was really good, and the timing of your ausuka bus was a significant improvement on your scum game. Really this was a good game for you.

Thanks for being part of a fun game, scum team!
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Post Post #2554 (isolation #260) » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:04 am

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In post 2215, bob3141 wrote:buttleproof
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