Micro 878: Chain of Command [Game Over]

[Aubrey]

I’m trying to reason a town grouping of icon, Datisi, and the hydra and hunting scum in Pers, Saude, and voted. But I don’t have enough confidence built up yet to follow through and argue it yet.

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

I do but it srarts with the captain

The captain is scum. WTF makes you think they'll claim?

Kind of started suspecting Blake to be honest. How could have the doc been protected? Send the JK on him? Not protecting myself could've been risky, but a lot of people were sr me. Doubted scum would attack me.

Persi was one of the most tr players. In case one of the protective PR is scum, it could've been possible that they would simply disobey and try to kill who they were designed to protect. That's why there was a "backup".

That's not a bad explanation.

Now let's lynch Jack and Kenneth please.

Both of these responses are surface level and once again, leaves my name out of it. Persi, still never giving up an opportunity to push the PL angle is why he’s scum here.

He wants to ram it into everyone’s heads that he should not be sr for his bad push on us and why he ignored the locktown read on a slot that Blake has 100% BoP on never wrongly hard tr us.

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

Does it serv scum interest in claiming JK right now?....because at a quick glance I’d say no. Which sucks cause I really dislike icon pushing this scum narrative on me.

I’m also interesting in hearing thoughts on this.

I am not at all familiar with Icon’s scumgames. If he otoh, was RC, I would definitely have an answer for it and would probably be hard pushing it but it’s not RC, so I prefer we don’t lynch Icon today.

Why would I possibly sr RC for this? RC would do a no kill and claimed to have jk’d it. But Icon isn’t RC, so I don’t have another explanation for it.

[Aubrey]

....what does that have to do with her claiming?


By claiming now, she and I are now scum's biggest interest and potential threats if we're town. As scum, claiming puts a theoretical time counter on her life. However if she had stayed silent, that would have lengthened her time in the game from being suspected. So is it not more aligned to town to claim than scum?

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

Just redid an ISO of Daitsi, I don’t think scum has that kind of ISO and her illogical captain orders would not logically coincide with the clear townie thought process she has shown throughout her ISO. I guess, I’m just upset that B & W aren’t here to give us both an extra mislynch and to stop scum from death tunneling my slot. Meh

So I think both Aubrey and Daitsi are most likely town for going beyond surface level thinking wrt the pr thing.

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

....what does that have to do with her claiming?


By claiming now, she and I are now scum's biggest interest and potential threats if we're town. As scum, claiming puts a theoretical time counter on her life. However if she had stayed silent, that would have lengthened her time in the game from being suspected. So is it not more aligned to town to claim than scum?

Yes, I agree. I think that jailkeep would logically be scum’s biggest target rn, because of what Chibi posted about the factional kill.

[Saudade]

Meh, tldr
Call me when you need a proffessional hammerer

And why are you town here? You’re clearly not reading anything anyone else has posted, just chomping a the bit to get a mislynch here. Where is the sorting? And how does B & W being dead not benefit you because as far as I’m concerned, anyone in her null - scum pile has reason to want them dead.

I still prefer Persi over anyone else for the reasons I already mentioned and I think we need to be very careful about either mislynching pr or CoC.

Kenneth is suspicious of Icon but on the chance Blake is wrong and he’s town jailkeep, we could lose an extremely helpful town asset in catching the final scum. I would prefer to lynch a non pr/CoC today, if possible.

Any tldr for this

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

Kenneth is saying that Icon was under pressure to claim, though. Is that not right? I am still opposed to lynching him either way because of the obvious potential benefit to town.

I also think that based on what I posted before, that slot is easily resolvable.

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

Meh, tldr
Call me when you need a proffessional hammerer

And why are you town here? You’re clearly not reading anything anyone else has posted, just chomping a the bit to get a mislynch here. Where is the sorting? And how does B & W being dead not benefit you because as far as I’m concerned, anyone in her null - scum pile has reason to want them dead.

I still prefer Persi over anyone else for the reasons I already mentioned and I think we need to be very careful about either mislynching pr or CoC.

Kenneth is suspicious of Icon but on the chance Blake is wrong and he’s town jailkeep, we could lose an extremely helpful town asset in catching the final scum. I would prefer to lynch a non pr/CoC today, if possible.

Any tldr for this

???

[Aubrey]

Kenneth is saying that Icon was under pressure to claim

??? I don't remember this in my skim.

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

Kenneth is saying that Icon was under pressure to claim

??? I don't remember this in my skim.

He said it in our DC.

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

He also said that Icon was under pressure, claiming jk gave him an out, because others wanted to lynch him. However, his slot is resolvable, so despite obviously agreeing with Kenneth on this, not my preferred lynch today.

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

If these PRs were both town, it would be highly unlikely that scum would let both live, even if scum have the captain. If scum have both the captain and commander it wouldn't matter, but that also is highly unlikely.

You are vastly oversimplifying things and your narrative of "I think LJK is scum because Zeebu flipped town, but I also just want to policy lynch Nancy" is incredibly scummy. I don't think that town!you seriously pushes for a policy lynch on day two after we have already had one mislynch because you don't think Nancy should be in this game. You also haven't even explained why you think town!Zeebu implies scum!LJK -- what is the connection there that suggests that we can't be TvT and Zeebu was simply wrong!town with respect to his read on our slot? Considering that we weren't even pushing Zeebu (we were pushing Saudade) on day one, if you are town why does Zeebu's town flip have you convinced that we are scum? Do you believe that his wagon was all-town?

It's also interesting how your takeaway from Zeebu’s town flip is that we are scum, considering you are the one who brought the Zeebu wagon back directly in response to Icon being wagoned:

Tldr can we just lynch one of Iconeum and Datisi please.

-Blake

I could vote Icon, but not Datisi. She's struck me as town so far.

You're not even voting him, dipshit.

VOTE: Iconeum

VOTE: Iconeum

Actually I went off zeebu because I didn't see LJ slot and zeebu as S/S and wanted LJ worse. Now that I've backed off somewhat on the LJ/MS read, that doesn't apply anymore. Just read Icon and zeebu ISOs, and icon is clearly better.

VOTE: zeebu

I'll let Weiss have this one. We can lynch scum tomorrow, then.

VOTE: Zeebu

-Blake

VOTE COUNT 1.14

zeebu

(5): Datisi, Iconeum, Persivul, Blake x Weiss, Saudade

LYNCH

Datisi

(2): Aubrey, Voted

Saudade

(1): Michael Scott

Michael Scott

(1): zeebu

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

Day 1 ends in

(expired on 2019-07-02 13:00:00)

The likeliehood of Zeebu’s wagon being all-town is next to zero, yet all you seem interested in is pushing our slot.

And why even mention anything about a policy lynch if you are convinced that we are scum? If you are town and fully convinced that we are scum, then there’s nothing “policy” about pushing us – you would simply be pushing your strongest scumread. Adding in the secondary reason of “It’s policy” just gives you something to fall back on lylo to defend yourself with in the event that you push our mislynch through today.

And no, it isn't mechanically confirmed that at least one of {us, Aubrey} is scum. Especially in the scenario where the command structure isn't all-town and the secondary scum win condition of "kill off the entire command structure" doesn't apply, there's no reason for scum to focus on killing officers specifically. In that scenario scum has to win "the old-fashioned way" by getting three mislynches -- in which case it makes sense for scum to prioritize killing off obvtown players/threatening players over PR's and/or officers. B&W was obvtown on day one, our slot wasn't despite claiming both PR and Lieutenant. That alone is a good reason for scum to nightkill B&W. Furthermore, if both the Captain (Datisi) and Aubrey are town, then scum has to assume we might be protected on night one, so they aren't going to try and nightkill us before dealing with Aubrey. In that scenario their choices are to 1) nightkill Aubrey so they can come after us next or 2) kill a strong town player that was unlikely to be protected. Scenario 1 only really makes sense if the entire command structure is town and the secondary scum win condition applies; scenario 2 makes a lot of sense if there is scum in the command structure.

In fact, even if the command structure is all-town it still makes sense for scum to not nightkill us if they think they can push our mislynch through on day two. Assume that both Aubrey and us are town, and that the entire command structure is town. Let’s furthermore assume that scum concludes Aubrey isn’t an officer, given that he immediately claimed doctor when he was at L-1 because he wanted his wagon to die down, and if he was both an officer and the doctor he likely would have claimed both given how concerned he was about his wagon. So on night one there were eight people alive: us, Aubrey, the two members of the scumteam, and the four remaining townies. From scum’s point of view in this scenario this would mean that both the Captain AND the Commander would be among those four other slots, which included B&W – so killing in one of those four slots already gives scum a 50% chance of hitting the Captain or the Commander. Even in the case where they don’t hit the Captain or Commander on night one, that means that on night two they have at least a 66.66~% of hitting either the Captain or the Commander, depending upon who is lynched on day two (because both the Captain and the Commander are among the three other slots that weren't nightkilled on night one). That’s not bad at all, especially if scum is able to push our mislynch on day two – because that negates the need to prioritize killing Aubrey in the first place, because the purpose of that is strictly to open our slot up as a nightkill on night two.

An Aubrey nightkill really makes the most sense if 1) the entire command structure is all-town and 2) scum doesn’t think they can push our mislynch through. Barring both of those things being true it makes more sense to prioritize killing someone who is 1) an obvtown player with a lot of influence over the game and 2) likely to become a significant threat to the scumteam. B&W arguably met both of those criteria more so than any other slot in the game on day one.

The nightkill of B&W especially makes sense if there is scum among {Iconeum, Datisi}, considering B&W's final reads list and the fact that they wanted to lynch in one of those two slots before you shifted the focus away from Iconeum towards Zeebu instead:

So like

Michael Scott is town because Nancy left her scumrange before replacing out.
Aubrey is town.
Persivul is town.
Zeebu and Voted I feel have the most consistent mindset in a way that I believe they'd struggle to have as scum. I think they would've buckled or at least shifted a bit to pressure.

Saudade is just perpetually null, I don't care enough to sort him.

Iconeum has this weird undertone to his posts that make me think he's not speaking naturally, something about how he's emphasizing certain things at certain times that don't sit right or something, either way I don't get the impression that he's legitimately sorting as much as putting on the show to.
Datisi doesn't feel like she's sorting at all, just sitting in the back coasting. There's been a few instances of reads being given, but it's few and far between and otherwise I haven't gotten the impression she's been trying to solve the game this whole time.

-Blake

Tldr can we just lynch one of Iconeum and Datisi please.

-Blake

All three of our heads agree on you being scum, and we think Icon is most likely your partner. It’s fairly self-explanatory why the B&W nightkill benefits scum!Icon –- before B&W switched their vote to Zeebu (a counter-wagon to Icon which you started), they clearly wanted to lynch Icon specifically on day one. Scum!Icon knew that B&W would be coming after him today. Furthermore, as Nancy pointed out, B&W townreading you is not as significant as them townreading us – Ank/Blake has never incorrectly townread scum!Nancy before, whereas Ank/Blake has incorrectly townread scum!Perisvul before, and she admits she has a hard time reading Persivul accurately. Meaning that scum!Persivul would know that Ank/Blake’s townread on him was unstable and could change at any time (see: the first CoC game and B&W’s ISO in it –- town!B&W initially incorrectly townread scum!Persivul on day one in that game and then later flipped their read on him).

So in addition to protecting scum!Icon from being pushed by Ank/Blake, the B&W nightkill furthermore benefits scum!Persivul because it denies B&W the opportunity to flip their read on him. And scum!Persivul also knew that Ank/Blake would continue to hard defend us today if she were still alive, making it much harder for him to push our mislynch through. It’s incredibly scummy how Persivul accepted Ank/Blake’s townlock on our slot at the end of day one and backed off of his push on our slot based on that alone (he specifically backed off of pushing our slot when he came to learn that Liz is Nancy -- see 897, 898, 913), then pushed Icon, then changed his mind and pushed Zeebu, and is now arguing that Zeebu’s town flip implies that we are scum despite us having nothing to do with Zeebu’s lynch – and all the while he is now completely disregarding Ank/Blake’s townlock of our slot despite accepting it on day one (Ank/Blake repeatedly said we are locktown towards the end of day one: see 686, 737, 739, 868, 870, 875). Persivul is scum and it’s obvious that he is trying to chain Zeebu and our slot as back-to-back mislynches. He couldn't continue to push our slot once B&W started hard defending us towards the end of day one, but now that Ank/Blake is gone he feels confident to resume his disingenuous push our slot.

- Jack (Volxen)

[ChibiBear]

VOTE COUNT 2.03

Liz Jack and Kenneth

(2): Persivul, Iconeum

Persivul

(1): Liz Jack and Kenneth

Iconeum

(1): Voted

Not Voting

(3): Aubrey, Datisi, Saudade

With

7

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

Day 2 ends in

(expired on 2019-07-13 13:00:00)

[Aubrey]

You cannot expect to shift blame of his claim onto himself.

Of course I can. I specified in bold that I would take a hammer without intent as a scum claim, yet Aubrey panicked and claimed anyway.

Yes, site meta is shifting away from waiting for intent before a hammer, but that needs to change. That's part of why towns are losing.

You put him on L-1 after being wagoned for poor reasons. You never mentioned any kind of reason why.

If I say

Hey, I really only have a null read on him, I'm just doing this to see who jumps off the wagon, or who puts on intent, etc.

that blows the whole purpose.

What did you expect was gonna happen? What kind of scenario was town!you trying to force here?

Someone would get off the wagon, or someone would declare intent, at which point I would have unvoted.

Sliding through D1 with no serious wagons and making a compromise lynch at end of phase isn't good for town.

this doesn't feel like scum to me regarding a Pers and Icon team.

[Aubrey]

I’m kinda ready to see Saude out. I’ve seen zero game solving as of recently, and his recent “I’ll hammer anyone” “let me know if you need a hammer-er” simply takes him out of the conversation. Us allowing him to have no influence on the game (which we’ve mostly allowed as of late) is a great spot to be in as scum. Not to mention it leaves it open for us to think “he can’t be scum, because scum would never hammer unless they had to in a setup like this”

So for now VOTE: Saude

[Iconeum]

Does it serv scum interest in claiming JK right now?....because at a quick glance I’d say no. Which sucks cause I really dislike icon pushing this scum narrative on me.

'Pushing a scum narrative on you' is relative. Captain put 2 protects onto Pers, and neither of the claimed PR's got sniped. There was a claimed Doc, and scum didn't bother to kill him. Now with a JK claim out, they don't know for sure if they can kill me.

All of the above starts to make sense if EITHER captain OR doc is scum because then scum have control over the actions...
Do you agree or not?

Feels like you’ve just hounded her for a illogical play, but not once touching on the scum motive for the double protect. She could have still protected you and pers. and killed BW as scum. If she doesn’t TR a slot she has no purpose in protecting it in her eyes.

Town make mistakes/questionable plays, scum make planned intentional plays. What part of this double protect fills a scum motive?

I agree with this. Making an illogical play (from your own PoV), does not = scum. Liz is really playing around with perspective and motives this day, making it fit their narrative. 'BW tr Aubrey, so Aubrey is not likely to kill BW.' 'Pers is scum though, even despite BW tr'ing them'. It doesn't make sense.

Saudude is also looking bad, not solving or participating.
I would be most comfortable in deleting Liz slot today.

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

Why are you completely mischaraterizing my posts? I explained why B & W’s tr on Persi was different from the one on us, because unlike us who B & L locktowned based on BoP, Blake didn’t have that on Persi and she misread him last game. If you are hellbent on pushing our mislynch, there very least you can do is to not either misconstrue or misrep what I said. I’ve been trying to defend your play to Jack and Kenneth but if you’re just going to misrepresent what I’m saying, I just won’t bother. That isn’t what Aubrey did btw, unlike you, he wasn’t trying to unfairly shade me but ask me very valid questions. I strongly advise you to follow suit.

Same goes for Daitsi. That’s why we tr both of them. Both are honestly trying to sort me not just confibias and shade me. Why aren’t you doing that?

[Saudade]

I’m kinda ready to see Saude out. I’ve seen zero game solving as of recently, and his recent “I’ll hammer anyone” “let me know if you need a hammer-er” simply takes him out of the conversation. Us allowing him to have no influence on the game (which we’ve mostly allowed as of late) is a great spot to be in as scum. Not to mention it leaves it open for us to think “he can’t be scum, because scum would never hammer unless they had to in a setup like this”

So for now VOTE: Saude

):

[Saudade]

I mean you're not wrong

[Saudade]

Good analysis 'cept the end result is wrong

[Saudade]

I am indeed largely disinterested in this game today, even more so than yesterday

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

Michael Scott is town because Nancy left her scumrange before replacing out

.

-Blake

Some reason you’re ignoring this, Icon?

Are you seriously shocked that I’m having trouble tr you rn?

[Iconeum]

Michael Scott is town because Nancy left her scumrange before replacing out

.

-Blake

Some reason you’re ignoring this, Icon?

Are you seriously shocked that I’m having trouble tr you rn?

My dude i'm seriously confused this game

that BW kill doesn't make sense and the only 'logical' conclusion I can draw from it is that I'm scum because Association and I know i'm not scum

I'm fairly sure there's scum in you/Aubrey because mechanics and I think Aubrey is more likely town

[Liz Jack and Kenneth]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=79367&user_select%5 ... &start=400

Here, this an example of one of my most recent scumgames where both Blake and Weiss were in. Still think Blake was wrong?

I was one half of Reasonably Clever and I dare you to ISO and tell me my play is the same as it is here.