Open 761: Grey Flag Nightless - [It's over!]
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
are you naked voting me?In post 650, Chemist1422 wrote:And I don’t think I’ve ever seen you react this way to a naked vote-
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
np sorry for you not getting the town points from hammering your partner
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
In post 699, Ankamius wrote:Ircher is scumIn post 700, Ankamius wrote:Chemist is the thirdIn post 709, Ankamius wrote:I'm not buying the BuJ scumread, I think it's pretty plainly the team I suggested unless Voted subs in for one
I'm disengaging, bye-
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
Okay
I'm not overheating now so I have my wits about me enough to say this.
I have a process behind my hunting.
I need specific things to have reads confident enough to be willing to push.
I need enough of a baseline to judge my findings against to have a reasonable idea of how likely my reads are to be correct.
Most importantly, I need a gamestate that is productive enough to where I can find situations that are most likely to result in highly AI interactions.
The reason I play like shit in virtually every game I play with RC in it is because he significantly warps the game. People put him up on a pedistal and play around him in a way that is significantly more difficult to detect the differences of for me, which often is one of the only things that matter in the game.
This specific game is exactly the kind of gamestate I would expect from a game where scum take a huge blow from losing any one person and had one member caught almost immediately. Expectedly, both of the still alive hyperactive players are just straight up town. Literally every other slot can either be scum looking to ride out the day to avoid being hard caught like Datisi or town that sees the game is already won and they don't really have to try, especislly since there is still remarkably little to get reads on outside of the three hyperpoaters, all of which are easy to see as town solely from how the game progressed.
I can't detect the subtle differences between town and scum in games like this. I'm fully aware that my reasons for scumreading Ircher are stretchy and not strong evidence of a scum mindset, but this is the type of play that in a vacuum is exactly how I would expect someone looking to just not get caught play. Bujaber who the hell knows, I've struggled to read him in just about every game and I still don't know how to do it. Voted I don't see a single thing he's done being indicative either way, nor do I expect him to be motivated enough to start caring regardless of alignment solely from what I know about his style and past experiences with him. Chemist is more a gut read.
You can expect more from me all you want, but I am generally strong in games where scum have more of an impact (or deceptively lack thereof) on how the game is progressing or in games where scum need to take risks to stay afloat. My reads are above average, but it's mostly in situations like those since my ultimate strength as town is looking at the game from a side view and seeing the differences between town and scum perspectives as a whole in any one situation and being able to piece together the rest of the players alignments from what reads that gives me.
I strongly suspect that how RC reads me depends mostly on how I go about building towards situations like this, since most of my town games significantly skew towards me trying to build those scenarios directly. I expect this is a significant reason why he struggles to read me in a lot of games and why he drops his townreads of me on a dime when I start thinking he's scum... because a lot of this also depends on my mood at the time and I'm actually not very good at forcing those scenarios to go in ways I expect them to until I literally have a solve set up already or at least an idea of one already put together.
It really isn't surprising to me that he'd read me incorrectly considering my catch up, but honestly, this type of game is one I know I will never have significant contributions in solely by how the game began and continued throughout the first day. This is the biggest reason I replaced in on an account I don't play on anymore and started out playing very nonseriously; I was HOPING to entice people to come out and react to a significant change in the game from the norm and potentially spark new conversations and push things in a direction where the entire game isn't just two slots talking back and forth and essentially resolving the entire game immediately while everyone else just stalls out and does nothing until the end. Immediately being forced to play my hand that fast by RC's response followed by the near immediate call to end the day put me in a position where I had to play on the back foot and at least throw SOMETHING out there to avoid just getting lollynched just for not playing up to my expected level immediately. It's hard to take games like that seriously.
I have the highest chance of catching scum directly on day one, and my official stance on that is an Ircher + Chemist1422 scumteam. I really have no answer on what the three lynches should be because that requires information I don't have, and that information is unlikely to come since we've essentially been leashed to a specific set of lynches. I know that literally all I need to do to win the game is lynch literally any slot that isn't bitmap/shoshin/myself since that 100% wins the game on the contingency that my initial read on how scum are reacting to RC is correct, but I have regularly had significant problems getting townread this year, predominantly after my several scum wins and my playstyle shift on my new playing account, so I really don't know what to tell you there. I expect that no level of read accuracy or nuance in hunting is going to make a difference as long as we stay attached to RC's lynch list. And since the one thing that I need to do to guarantee a town win is very unlikely to ever be a possibility... what motivation do I have to make any kind of difference in the game?
The ONLY other possibility is to locktown another player, but that also relies on most of the slots doing... well, anything. I'm not going to count on that possibility either.
So yes, I'm going to tell you to follow RC's list even though it involves me as a lynch target. I don't see history changing away from that list the way the game is going, and the difference is that exactly a single team (Ircher + Voted) wins in this scenario. It's one I can see being possible in this game, but the odds are still favorable enough for us that I don't think the amount of extra effort to brute force a win is worth the trouble with the amount of content I have to work with.
Sorry, I guess.-
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.