[CHALLENGE] July Challenge

[callforjudgement]

One Day Ultimate Conspiracy

One neighborhood consisting of 3 VTs

One neighborhood consisting of 1 VT and 2 Mafia

Neighborhood membership is public.
There is no lynch mechanic. Players discuss the game in the neighborhood and game thread, and at any time a player may post selfvote in the game thread. If the player who self voted is a member of a neighborhood that includes mafia, the town wins. If the player who self voted is a member of a neighborhood that does not include mafia, the mafia wins.

I'd say this is not mafia. I don't see why this could be fun either. And it is... not really balanced, too? It has an EV of just 25%...

It really got me thinking, though. It seems more interesting than regular Conspiracy?

I think it probably is Mafia; there is a relevant associative tell, it's just a different one from usual. (Scum care strongly about keeping

their entire neighbourhood

alive, town potentially consider their neighbourhood to be the scummy one and thus will be scumhunting within their own neighbourhood.)

EV is 50% if provable randomness is available, and possibly even without it. That said, I have a suspicion that the numbers are wrong.

[callforjudgement]

Hm. What happens if the Survivor claims?

Breaking strategy: Survivor picks 1 on Night 0 (purely to allow them to post in thread). If anyone other than the Survivor gets lynched (likely), Survivor claims and promises to pick 0 on every night from then on if scum leave them alive. Scum have no reason to break this strategy, leading to a joint Survivor+Scum victory.

(Side note: I think this is the first time I've broken a setup for a third-party?)

[callforjudgement]

Oh, I missed that the number of lynches and kills are equal, rather than having n day phases and 1 night phase.

[callforjudgement]

If someone could do the EV on this, I would appreciate it

Mafia can't possibly reach majority the "regular" way, so the vote in the all-town neighbourhood is irrelevant from an EV point of view, as is the PT Sensor. So it comes down to whether town can get a 1 in 3 chance two times in three. There's a 2 in 9 chance of being right exactly twice, and an additional 1 in 27 chance of being right all three times, so the EV is 25.9%.

[callforjudgement]

Let Mafia assign the neighborhoods pregame.

0:0:0:13 is broken for scum.

[callforjudgement]

I think you're confusing 7:2 with 10:3? Town has less power here than they do in a balanced 7:2 setup, and a 10:3 needs much more town power to balance it than a 7:2 does.

[callforjudgement]

All those power roles are effectively Innocent Children with no other mechanical advantages (there may be some communicative advantages), other than the vig (who gets to shift the game off evens). The "not scum together" indications are useful, but probably less powerful than you're expecting (e.g. Scumteam Unpick has four times as many disqualified scumpairs per player, and even then it needed the double D1). So the setup basically just comes down to a combination of "claim to clear yourself" and the information from the forbidden pairings (plus the vig shot).

I agree that that's quite a bit of town power, but I think you're underestimating just how scumsided 13:7 is: town can make only three mistakes (whether that's a mislynch or a misvig). Killing within a town/town pairing is a mistake, as is getting the wrong

member

of a pairing; so there are 7 "correct" lynch options and 9 mistakes. Finding all 7 correct options before making 4 mistakes is going to be close to impossible at those numbers.

At a more normal game size (I'm not that experienced with balancing Larges), I'm guessing that something like 9:3 would work with just the first two power roles on the list.