Micro 880: A Normal Game - Game Over!
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In post 13, callforjudgement wrote:I knew someone was going to call me on that and was wondering who. That said, I don't think it's possible to deduce much from this; I just wanted to have something to talk about.- Oversoul
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Is this true?In post 21, callforjudgement wrote:Well, I see #6 as rather scummier than #4. (Joking around is part of Firebringer's personality, indeed. IIRC, joking about being scum statistically happens more often when the person making the joke is scum, but it's so early in the game that there's not much else to joke about, so #4 doesn't indicate much.)- Oversoul
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Um.In post 94, callforjudgement wrote:VOTE: Firebringer
This is not a strong read at all, but I believe in always having a vote out.- Oversoul
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What is the difference?In post 305, skitter30 wrote:also grats on being the first person to actually recognize the difference between my singleball and multiball range lol
@temporal why am i town?- Oversoul
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I'm just kidding, Firebringer. See below -
In post 114, Dunnstral wrote:
How is it artificial and forced?In post 113, TemporalLich wrote:
... because it seems artificial and forced?In post 110, Dunnstral wrote:
Can you explain how it isn't a good sign?In post 109, TemporalLich wrote:
This also being 86 isn't a good sign.In post 17, Dunnstral wrote:Hey guys, glad to be a member of the town once again
Explain your whole thought processThese two posts in particular seemingly expressed genuine attempts to discern thought process/alignment.
In addition, I thought 397 had a lot of holes and "I don't knows" that scum would not openly admit since it could look potentially opportunistic.
This post from Skitter looks really townie. I don't think scum would acknowledge how quickly the wagon ballooned and essentially deflate it. I disagree with the overall logic of the post because it assumes that scum would never vote for their partners. Unless Oka and Skitter are scumIn post 231, skitter30 wrote:
i don't know, i'm just kinda speaking from experience - i've not often seen scum get run up this fast in a microIn post 208, Sleepless Assassin wrote:I see from post 123 now you're going with the resistance thing. How much resistance can really be expected if Dunn as scum only has one buddy, maybe two but most likely not? Especially if his buddy wasn't around. Ugh, I type that out and see callforjudgement beat me to that point. I'll leave in in my post anyway and my questions in the above paragraph still stand. Im also curious what you think of the timing of firebringers (why did my phone auto correct to fire fingers?) vote on you and whether you'd consider that to be resistance.
i don't know necessarily what their buddy may be doing, i'm just kinda saying holistically after playing a lot of micros i can't think of any offhand where scum got l-1'd that fast
if scum is getting wagoned there's two votes that wont' be on that player
but if town is getting wagoned in a lol-rvs kind of way, there's two scum who would be happy to join the wagon. idk if dunn's town or if there were two scum on him but i think that in that kind of wagon scum are happy to place votes so there won't be resistance
like i guess i'm not really looking at this from the poe of: if he's scum there would have been resistance so what's his buddy doing
but more like: in general in a micro i think it's p easy for town to get run up, esp in a lol-rvs wagon, since scum have little incentive to not vote, so the fast wagon kinda looks like this scenario to me
i hope that explained my thought process
and yeah i thought fire's vote offwagon was some of that potential resistance if it actually is a wagon on scumtogether, I do not think Skitter would make this post.
Additionally, her active scumhunting is lightyears beyond anyone else.- Oversoul
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I generally find it suspicious when people do not post often, or if they do post, it is with very little information. It is for that reason that old players like Chamber, Cogito Ergo Sum, and Empking were always so hard for me to read. They never posted and when they did it was hard to understand their thought process because they were so opaque.
Sleepless began the game much the same way. He did pick it up for two posts (one in which where he shares my idea re: Skitter and the Oka wagon), but those posts don't feel totally genuine to me. That being said, I do agree with his point about Skitter and Oka.
In general I find it suspicious when a player's activity changes, one way or another. If they go from posting a lot to posting a little, it seems like it could be scum who think they have secured the trust of the town. If they lurk and then DANGER appears causing them to become active, it could be scum doing some self-preservation.- Oversoul
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What is making you avoid sorting him until later?In post 421, OkaPoka wrote:okay i guess im just going to avoid sorting you until later if i make it to that stage- Oversoul
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Hmm. I actually like this post. That’s unfortunate for my read on you.In post 424, OkaPoka wrote:because i don't know if analyzing is within scumrange and old games are really bad ways to meta people so ill just scumhunt the old fashion way which is vca/wagons -> reading motivations- Oversoul
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Why doesn’t it matter?In post 457, TemporalLich wrote:
I would have needed more explanation to vote SnS, but it doesn't matter anyway.In post 456, OkaPoka wrote:
then what does this meanIn post 451, TemporalLich wrote:
I mean I can actually take it to heart so it sorta works, but more explanation would be nice before I consider voting SnS (though it's pretty much moot now).In post 450, OkaPoka wrote:does dunn's original post not suffice- Oversoul
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I had skimmed the game
I think you, fire, and CFJ have been the ones most actively trying to figure things out in the game. In general, I think scum are more likely to post less frequently, lurk, give undeveloped thoughts, etc. I did not see that much from either of you three. That is my general impression.In post 481, skitter30 wrote:
Why is fire town?In post 413, Oversoul wrote:CFJ’s play is almost too analytical for me. Hmm. I do appreciate his forthright nature though.
Town reads on Skitter, Firebringer
Town lean on Dunstral and CFJ
Scum lean on Sleepless and Sassy. Not sure if this is because of their awol nature though
Scum read on Oka
I think sa is town too
For FB, it is similar to my reasoning to town read you. FB was a part of the Dunnstral wagon and he also noticed how fast that wagon got to L-1. He acknowledged it and unvoted in 111. I found that post in particular to be fairly townie because if scum, why not just let his vote sit there and coast, or better yet, get a lolhammer. Additionally, he changed his vote to you - a person he suspected in 66, 72, and 75. All of those interactions combined present a scumhunting thought process that I view as townie. It is possible that FB and Dunn are partners and that is why FB backed off the wagon, but it is ay too early in the game for me to even attempt to say that with any degree of certainty. Plus, I find his refusal to join the Oka wagon to be townie. I think scumFirebringer could very easily tack on a vote to Oka and just enjoy generally being town read. Again, it is possible that Firebringer is scum with Oka and thus does not want that wagon to go through, but like that too is still too early to determine.
What is your opinion of Kop? I don't love 463 because that seems like an easy post to make if scum. That said, I do think that 464 shows original thinking that so far has not been leveraged against Oka (leading wagon). Maybe I have a different idea of how scum would handle an Oka!town wagon.- Oversoul
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I agree with that analysis. My other thought on the Oka wagon is that it has had a mostly hard time gaining traction, which points to it more likely being on scum.In post 485, callforjudgement wrote:I'm pretty sure that most scum would, if replacing in, look for excuses to push a hypothetically town OkaPoka to claim or lynch. (A minority of scum would instead decide to hard-defend him; I don't much see the point in this scum strategy, but I've seen it tried often enough to be aware it exists.)- Oversoul
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Why would this matter, Oka?In post 519, OkaPoka wrote:Did sweet n sassy ask to play mafia or did you ask her to play @sleepless
There is a role called sensor. It is very OP though.In post 520, OkaPoka wrote:Is there a role modifier that only lets you check people on lynch wagon?
Why don’t you particularly like your townread on FB? Do you disagree with my assessment of FB town?In post 531, skitter30 wrote:i think you actually believe the things you're pushing (even tho i disagree with them)
and, in contrast to jazz mafia, i actually feel like you're trying to solve the game and i can see how your thoughts have been developing- Oversoul
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So there was something that was potentially alignment indicative. You did not feel like Kop's posts pointed one way or another towards his alignment, even after Sassy lurked to her replacement?In post 544, callforjudgement wrote:Actually, the main thing I'm surprised at is that skitter hasn't complained abut my recent activity. I've been having problems finding things to say about this game because it feels like not much is happening; there have been lots of posts but I haven't seen much alignment-indicative in them, and not much that warrants really pointing it out. So I haven't been posting as much as I'd like, and I feel like skitter would have picked up on that?- Oversoul
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What did you expect CFJ to say to this if he was scum buddying you?In post 557, skitter30 wrote:@cfj should i be worried that i'm starting to feel like ur buddying me?- Oversoul
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+++town points for CFJIn post 569, callforjudgement wrote:I don't believe in trying to keep things hidden as town (unless you're really widely townread, or have a mechanical certainty of being able to prove you're town, and want to keep things hidden in order to get reads). If you're being open with everyone, it's surprisingly hard to survive as scum without giving away your partners. So I like to do this as town precisely because it's hard to imitate as scum.
For clarification, I think Day 1 is a little too early to try and discern activity levels, especially given the extent of replacements in this game.- Oversoul
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I actually hate this. It's cheeky, but not the sort of cheeky that I really attribute to town. But that might be because Dunn has been missing the last couple of days. Going through and rereading the TemporalLich and Oka feudIn post 642, Dunnstral wrote:I voted you on a whim, without thinking about it too hard
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Hmmm.In post 798, TemporalLich wrote:firebringer and dunn are my compromise lynches... skitter is not to be voted
I think I am no longer comfortable with a Temporal lynch and strongly urge everyone to vote Dunn. Posting this out of reference of my catchup because deadline is [allcaps]soon[/allcaps].- Oversoul
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I am curious why you think they are utterly bizarre? The one about the reads not lining up seems pretty reasonable.In post 689, callforjudgement wrote:Both of Oka's reasons for scumreading Temp are utterly bizarre.
You should vote Dunn with me!In post 735, Firebringer wrote:I am kind leaning on Temp or Skitter as one scum and Dunnstral being the other.
Where the hell are u dunny boi?
Explain what makes it an unwavering town iso?In post 758, skitter30 wrote:
i just reread lich'sIn post 712, OkaPoka wrote:skitter if ur town please reread my iso and lich's iso
it's a town iso
This sounds like you *really* want Temp to be town rather than think his posting is town.In post 763, skitter30 wrote:
eh the readslist hting is actually a legimate pointIn post 724, OkaPoka wrote:and he swaps votes from me to firebringer in between here so we can probs assume our positions of scumminess are swapped
Well that's rude. Why?In post 807, skitter30 wrote:basically the same minus you
oversoul probably loses the townread / goes down a tier
This is probably the strongest argument for Oka-scum to be fair.In post 828, skitter30 wrote:eh i could see that narrative
still feel like scum would have figured out how to hammer you given that you've been at l-1 for like half a week if you're town here tho
CFJ stronger town lean for 843[post].
Damn straight.
Saving this for later.
Hmm. Kop, had you read most of the recent pages by the time that you made this?
Saving this.
I do think this is a bit of stretch given the actual course of events.
In post 922, skitter30 wrote:
i'm saying that kop/dunn had ample oppurtunity to hammer you but didn't, and the fact that they didn't is indicative of scum!you
you're at once arguing that:
1.since they had the oppurtunity to hammer you but didn't that indicates that scum are already on wagon (hence not indicative of scum!you) - 809 and 810
2. hammering is hard and they couldn't have done it without causing red flags if scum 834
like basically in 1 you're saying they had the oppurtunity to hammer you but chose not to, and this points to town!them
and in 2 you're saying that they could not have hammered you in a not-suspicious fashion
like these don't make sense as a coherent thought process
it can't have been both easy adn hard to hammer you; apparently which it was is dependant on what you're trying to argue at the time
if anything i'd argue that this implies that *your* thoughts are mercurial
The one point that I will give Oka is that it is possible both scum were already on his wagon (although highly unlikely given what potential role allocation). I honestly don't feel like anything substantive came from the 11 pages since the last time I seriously posted. Other than the soft claim, which did help my orient myself out of the death tunnel that Oka has created.
Have you been reading the game? We should not lynch Skitter or Temp today.
I admittedly have not been present. I did that thing where I joined too many games and I am paying for it right now. I never learn. But since you're here, what feels weird? Admittedly, you are more of a deadline lynch, but I did not like 642. It felt like active lurking to me and removed the townlean on me. It is odd to me that you are immediately zoned in on this vote I put onto you rather than really try to parse any of the other wagons/options. Your reaction makes me feel better about my shot in the dark actually.- Oversoul
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462 doesn't need to be about me to think you're scummy for it.In post 1002, Dunnstral wrote:Post 642 isn't in reference to you though?
Deadline lynch is a copout answer and we weren't that close to deadline when you actually voted me, and you never had any actual reasons to vote for me
I didn't immediately do anything though, you sat on your vote for so long that you got proddedIn post 1001, Oversoul wrote:It is odd to me that you are immediately zoned in on this vote I put onto you rather than really try to parse any of the other wagons/options.
We have been getting 48 hour additions to the deadline like every day for the last 5 days. And yes, I did. I may not have attached them to the vote itself, but I made reference to the reason.
Hmm, maybe that was the product of having to catchup and confirmation bias. Looking through your iso it does appear that I was wrong about that comment.
It was a fail because I am tired, but I meant it to say "removed the townlean for me" as in when I read it I moved you down from being a townlean.In post 1003, Dunnstral wrote:
What does this mean?In post 1001, Oversoul wrote:and removed the townlean on me- Oversoul
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Erm no. Not how that works lolIn post 1035, Kop wrote:
And now you've kinda put markers on there backs because scum are now going to be digging into those posts to see what they have possibly been crumbing.In post 1032, Oversoul wrote:Lmao no. Complete opposite. People I feel solidly town about. Admittedly Skitter + temp is most recently role reasons but they’ve been crumbing real hard- Oversoul
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Yeah this isn’t town with 2 hours until deadline.In post 1135, Dunnstral wrote:
You guys can vote what I want or no lynch, I'm not compromisingIn post 1133, callforjudgement wrote:Neither of those are viable wagons.
VOTE: Dunnstral
For the record, I find the Temp flash wagon to be very bad but I do not have time to really read it. I thought he was a mason with Skitter. I will not be around for deadline unfortunately
Pedit: finally someone sees the light- Oversoul
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I’m not scum, I didnt think Oka was scum before I leftIn post 1827, skitter30 wrote:I think your slot might be scum with oka, discuss- Oversoul
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I have thoughts but no energy. I will post tomorrow morning with said thoughts but looks like they won’t be controversial :hitoshrug:In post 1865, skitter30 wrote:ok my conclusion after rereading day1 is that kop is prob scum- Oversoul
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Ok. After rereading Day 1 slowly, I think this is my breakdown of the game and that Kop is definitely scum. I think FB might be the buddy.
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Skitter is confirmed town due to her hammertest. If she is scum and didn't hammer for whatever reason, we have already lost so this might all be for nothing anyway.
Based off what we know, I think the setup is TA + 2-shot Friendly Neighbor vs 1-shot Roleblocker + Goon. I think Kop is lying about his mailman ability entirely since it has now been 2 nights where we have not seen him confirm himself. I think the roleblocker is 1-shot because that matches up with the Friendly Neighbor being limited shot. Additionally, the EV math on 2 confirmed townies (Friendly Neighbor/IC and TA) against 2 scum in a 9 person setup is still only ~33% (scroll down to according to the 9p setups with 2 innocents). I am treateing Traffic Analyst as a confirmed innocent for the purpose of this argument. In my limited experience designing setups, I think including a full roleblocker skews the EV too hard into scum's favor. Even with a 1-shot roleblocker, I still think that the EV is scumsided.
When we get to the claim itself, Oka had been at the precipice of death for days. He made it out by not claiming (at which point meant he is a VT). I think Kop realized that he would need to claim something in order to weather that storm once the pressure moved onto him. By the time he started crumbing both Oka and myself had just moved onto his wagon and the wagon swelled to L-2. I also find it odd how he said that he accepted his lynch because that was the consensus everyone wants, but then when asked to self-hammer he said he wouldn't.
Then we get to the matter of CFJ dying the first night. Kop conveniently claims that he visited CFJ the same night CFJ dies. I think Kop claiming to visit CFJ was to protect himself against a tracker potentially existing in the setup, that way his "role" could be confirmed and it would not immediately out him as scum for lying. Remember the EV thing I said earlier? About the setup still being scumsided? CFJ even pointed out a similar setup with a tracker being deemed normal, but swingy involving a TA + Tracker vs 2 goons. The scumteam could have been scared that a TA + Tracker + 2-shot Friendly Neighbor vs a 1-shot RB + Goon was the setup. From a scum perspective, that makes sense to try to "coincide" night actions so that at least the targets are believable. Hiding in plain sight. It also helps that CFJ did not fully believe Kop's role and said that it would sort itself out later. The language CFJ used in regards to Kop's role seems very skeptical and pretty much implies that CFJ was only letting Kop live because of the role itself.
Then we get to the fact that Temporal died the night he did, as opposed to the first night. Why not just kill him the first night and try to use your RB elsewhere? I think because scum was worried CFJ would gun for Kop the moment Kop's role was not confirmed. CFJ was just nommed for a title called Microprocessor because of how involved he is with Micro games. Particulary Micro,normalgames. Anyone notice the title of this game? I would bet that scum killed CFJ for a combination of being on the right track (heh) by suspecting Kop and probably being able to create conftown through setup analysisalone. We were already a single step away from a massclaim.
But the Temp kill interests me beyond just being "oh he was a power role". Temp came into the announcing that he was 1) roleblocked and 2) attempted to target Firebringer. Additionally, Temp had been public about his not liking Kop for his hammer on Dunn. A PR that suspects both scum? That has to die from any scum point of view. That is why I think Temp died the night he did. From looking through Temp's iso, he seems to believe that Kop is town due to the mailman claim and that is pretty much it. Additionally, Temp had announced suspicion of both Oka and FB. It is possible that scum did not want to kill Temp the first night because they didn't think he was that accurate and thus not a threat. Once he claimed on Day 2, Temp, from a Kop + FB team, had to be eliminated.
If I had gotten mail, I would probably not being going after Kop. FB + Oka have pretty awful wagon interactions from my glance through their ISOs, but when I did not get mail today that pretty much confirmed Kop after I thought about the setup.
FB I think makes sense as scum after that hammer. That hammer was awful. It came out of nowhere and stunted town discussion tremendously. He didn't even wait for a claim. I can see scum doing that fearing another power role lurking to avoid getting nightkilled.
I am going with my gut that Oka is town. The emotion and the effort that he exerted casing Temp look really townie after rereading Day 1. I admit he did get paranoid and very wagon happy after his dissipated, but I think that was symptom of pretty much everyone saying that his case was correct, but that did not mean Temp was scum. That would have driven me bonkers too.
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For the record, I think hammer testing FB is a bad idea. I think hammer testing Kop is also a bad idea. FB has a recent scum game finished (Guns and Roses II) so I am going to look to see if there are any similarities.- Oversoul
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It was the first paragraph of my post dude. First paragraph.In post 1879, Oversoul wrote:Ok. After rereading Day 1 slowly, I think this is my breakdown of the game and that Kop is definitely scum. I think FB might be the buddy.- Oversoul
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Really? I think self-hammering is the town thing to do objectively. Or else we end up here in Lylo with all our unaswered questions from the first day.In post 1881, skitter30 wrote:
Tbf i dont think i ever self-hammer in that situation, so i'm not sure that's a reason to scumread himIn post 1879, Oversoul wrote:also find it odd how he said that he accepted his lynch because that was the consensus everyone wants, but then when asked to self-hammer he said he wouldn't. - Oversoul
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- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul
- Oversoul