Micro 880: A Normal Game - Game Over!

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #8 (isolation #0) » Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:45 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

/confirm

I was rather hoping to draw scum, but it didn't happen this time. I guess the odds in a Micro aren't that high.

For the time being, a philosophical question: is there any point in doing a random voting stage when the votes don't count? (We tend to do them when the votes
do
count, but normally try to avoid lynching people from them, so mathematically the situation should be the same in both cases.)
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Post Post #13 (isolation #1) » Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:52 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Firebringer wrote:
In post 8, callforjudgement wrote:I was rather hoping to draw scum, but it didn't happen this time. I guess the odds in a Micro aren't that high.
Ill trade with you if you want.
But then you'll know I'm scum and give me a huge disadvantage :-(
skitter30 wrote:bolded feels kinda fake
I knew someone was going to call me on that and was wondering who. That said, I don't think it's possible to deduce much from this; I just wanted to have something to talk about.
and 3/13 is ~ 23.1% and 2/9 is 22.2% which is ... not that different?
Right, but they're
both
pretty low odds. (Open is probably the queue where you have the highest odds of drawing scum.)
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Post Post #18 (isolation #2) » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:14 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

skitter30 wrote:what is this referring to?
and why'd you write a post that you knew you'd get called out on?
a) Who called me out.
b) Why does anyone write anything in RVS?

More specifically, though, I wrote the post because it's the truth (it's normally best to give people the ability to see into your thought processes when you're town, it makes you easier tto read) and because it's likely to help get the game started. People are posting (very slightly) alignment-indicative things already, right? So overall I see very little downside, except for the possibility I get pushed for it.

As an interesting contrast, Firebringer has
literally
claimed scum, and yet you aren't calling him out for that. (Incidentally, # made me subconsciously think that you're more likely to be scum, which is of course terrible reasoning but I still need to note it explicitly to help me fight with my subconscious on the issue. Joking about your own alignment is one thing, but joking about partners feels a bit like an attempt to manipulate people, so it's leaving me a bit uneasy.)
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Post Post #21 (isolation #3) » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:30 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Well, I see # as rather scummier than #. (Joking around is part of Firebringer's personality, indeed. IIRC, joking about being scum statistically happens more often when the person making the joke is scum, but it's so early in the game that there's not much else to joke about, so # doesn't indicate much.)

That said, it's almost impossible to get any sort of strong read off page 1. Making cases in RVS is more about trying to get people to read you, than it is about trying to read the person you're making the case on.
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Post Post #56 (isolation #4) » Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:00 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 49, Firebringer wrote:we need someone to say something controversial.
At this point in the game? There's enough to talk about already, isn't there? I can understand trying to force activity in RVS because nothing alignment-indicative has been posted, but I think there's enough to start reading people now.

Why don't you start by trying to read the worst, for example? I think there are enough posts there to get an idea of his thought process.
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Post Post #67 (isolation #5) » Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:30 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Firebringer wrote:no everyone seems normal and I have nothing to go on so far.
Hmm. I thought # was a pretty townish question. (I'd say that the people with the most alignment-indicative content are skitter and me, and you can't exactly ask skitter about herself, so the worst as town should have expected skitter to have a read on me and thus asking about it is (very mild) evidence of a town thought process.) I was wondering if you'd seen the same thing I did, but your reply makes it look more like you haven't really put any thought into the game yet.
OkaPoka wrote:is firebringer always like this?
I'm most used to Firebringer as a mod (rather than as a player), but he's typically like this as a mod, so I'm not surprised he's like this as a player too.
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Post Post #74 (isolation #6) » Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:39 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Firebringer wrote:I disagree with this flat out. you 2 are the most prolific of the people posting so far, neither of you I would say are posting alignment strictly indicative material, maybe skitter more than you.

this is 100% what I expect from you, so I think that question is useless but also makes sense to ask and I don't see why ur trying to make that mean town because seemed standard to me.
Well, in general, if someone's asking a lot of the standard questions in appropriate contexts, they're more likely to be town. Scum don't need to sort people, they just need to go through the motions of sorting people (and/or trying to get the town to mis-sort them!), so they're less likely to go through the chain of reasoning required to work out which of the standard questions are appropriate.
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Post Post #94 (isolation #7) » Fri Jun 28, 2019 8:15 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

VOTE: Firebringer

This is not a strong read at all, but I believe in always having a vote out.
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Post Post #122 (isolation #8) » Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:48 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 120, skitter30 wrote:Dunn wagon was kinda fast, i'm not sure scum get to l-1 this fast this early in a micro
I think people aren't particularly scared of RVS L-1s nowadays?

Part of the theory of RVS is that the votes
should
count, because there's always a risk of a quickhammer or an accidental hammer, so scum should be scared of being L-1ed even that early. However, what seems to actually happen in practice is that people just vote for whoever without caring, and quickhammers sometimes happen without people allowing for them (which in my experience normally causes town to lose).

In the case of this particular wagon, it's fairly likely that OkaPoka would unvote / vote someone else once the wagon reached L-1 (making most of the rest of the votes meaningless), but he hasn't been online. I guess that if Dunnstral actually is scum, that would make scum nervous (and more inclined to try to
stop
the wagon growing), but it's unlikely to slow the speed at which it does grow (I can easily imagine a wagon on scum growing to L-1 with just townies).
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Post Post #124 (isolation #9) » Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:01 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In a Micro?

If the wagon's on scum, there's only one other scum out there who's capable of stopping it (assuming 7:2, it nearly always is). If the wagon's growing fast, there's a fairly high probability that the other scum is just offline, or not paying attention to the game, or whatever (especially on a weekend).
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Post Post #157 (isolation #10) » Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:24 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 130, OkaPoka wrote:
In post 129, TemporalLich wrote:My SR's still on dunn
wait you are serious about this?
In post 132, skitter30 wrote:Hot take:temporal lich is town
In post 133, OkaPoka wrote:
In post 132, skitter30 wrote:Hot take:temporal lich is town
im reaching the opposite conclusion
This looks a lot like OkaPoka is scumreading TemporalLich for scumreading Dunnstral.

This seems like odd behaviour for someone whose vote is
on
Dunnstral, and had plenty of opportunity to move it. If you think that a player's scum, it'd be weird, with this little information, to scumread people for agreeing with you; maybe they'd seen the same thing you did.

It also means that if OkaPoka is trying to push the Dunnstral wagon, he's simultaneously trying to avoid looking like he's pushing it. (I agree that he's sort-of soft-pushing it in that it would be easy for him to dismantle it, and yet he's doing things like leaving his vote there, failing to investigate/push anyone else, etc.; quite relevant when the wagon's at L-1!) I can't see much reason for town to be dishonest about their reads like that.

VOTE: OkaPoka
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Post Post #180 (isolation #11) » Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:09 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 164, OkaPoka wrote:VOTE: temporallich

Nah I just think him voting Dunn and his scum read is backward rationalization
Aren't backwards rationalizations normally either a) duplicates of someone else's reasoning or b) really tortured?

TemporalLich's stated reasoning for the L-1 vote (in #) was that # and # are duplicates, which is a valid point that nobody else had pointed out in-thread (and that I missed until it was pointed out). Meanwhile, your stated reasoning for voting Dunnstral was, umm, "someone do something to spice this game up", "wagn this", i.e. not really rationalized at all (and I think everyone assumed it was just RVS). I can understand trying to start an RVS wagon to see who follows it, but I don't think scum who wanted to join the wagon for whatever reason would even have needed to
state
a reason. So I don't think TL's trying to rationalize their vote; it looks more like a vote based on an actual read, to me.
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Post Post #184 (isolation #12) » Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:19 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 182, OkaPoka wrote:Cfj how long does it typically take for you to make a post
Depends on how long it is. Maybe 5 minutes for an average-length post or so? This one's more like 1-2 minutes because it's shorter.

I tend to reread the parts of the thread I'm talking about to make sure I'm not missing anything, that's what takes most of the time.
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Post Post #206 (isolation #13) » Tue Jul 02, 2019 1:57 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 199, OkaPoka wrote:
In post 17, Dunnstral wrote:Hey guys, glad to be a member of the town once again
In post 86, Dunnstral wrote:Hey guys, glad to be a member of the town once again
attacking someone over these two posts and being serious about scumreading it is a fabricated read
I think that genuinely reading someone as scum for those two posts is more reasonable than genuinely reading someone as scum for scumreading someone for those two posts.

About the only potentially town-sided explanation I can see is Dunnstral intentionally doing something mildly scummy to spark discussion (and one of those posts would likely have been enough for that).
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Post Post #222 (isolation #14) » Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:07 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 220, OkaPoka wrote:the_worst do you actually scumread me or?
VOTE: the worst

# feels really off to me. In this situation, if OkaPoka is town, I'd expect scum who are on the wagon to be sitting on it in the hope that town hammers or forces a claim. (We don't have enough information yet to shake the "town outnumbers scum, so any particular player is more likely to be town than scum" assumption that applies in the early game.) the worst joined the OkaPoka wagon with no stated reasoning (#), and is definitely sitting on it – and yet posting a popcorn emote, while it draws attention to the fact that that's what the worst is doing (both due to its content and due to the simple fact that it's a post), doesn't seem to have much town motivation behind it (why not either unvote, try to information-gather, or try to push if it's a strong read?). For what it's worth, the worst's play is
also
somewhat consistent with a bus, probably of the "intentionally failed bus" variety.

OkaPoka seems to have something of a parallel thought process on this, which IMO increases the chance he's town (although not by as much as if the wagon was on someone else, as players tend to be more sensitive to their own wagons).
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Post Post #257 (isolation #15) » Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:50 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 254, TemporalLich wrote: doesn't gel with me, but I doubt the sharpness of comes from scum.
Really? # is the sort of post that scum can make as easily as town can. It's a "town-sided" post in that the information is helpful, but it's also the sort of information you can give out without really understanding the gamestate.

An old method of catching scum, which used to be fairly reliable (although basically all scumtells become less reliable once they're widely known), is if they were
only
making #-style posts without also making posts that were more alignment-indicative. That isn't happening here, though; Sleepless Assassin also has posts like #, so I don't think there's any particular lack-of-analysis going on there. So # is just null from a reading point of view (but definitely welcome from the point of view of helping out a newbie).
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Post Post #259 (isolation #16) » Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:07 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 251, OkaPoka wrote:
thanks for explaining why im town!
Just dropping a note here for myself to check back at this on a future day once we have some flips: in particular, I think it's almost impossible that OkaPoka would make this flippant comment if both OkaPoka and skitter were scum. (I have a tendency to forget about inferences like this, so posting them in-thread seems like a good idea so that I don't forget them.)
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Post Post #282 (isolation #17) » Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:42 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Firebringer, why didn't you answer #? (I have a comment to make about it but don't want to get ahead of other people's questions, it tends to screw up their ability to form reads.)

I like the way Sleepless Assassin is playing (especially #); it seems likely that Sleepless Assassin is either a) town, or b) scum who won't be able to keep that playstyle up without making their motivations clear. This makes me never want to lynch them Day 1, because if they're scum, it should become obvious that they're scum before too long. (They're probably town though.)

# (skitter disagreeing with Firebringer) feels townish to me, although I'm not sure I can rationalise the read: it's not based on what skitter was saying but more on how it was said.

OkaPoka hasn't changed vote since #, which surprises me, especially given #; it seems reasonable for town in OkaPoka's position, with that sort of belief about wagons, to try to create a new one (or at least push the existing one). OkaPoka hasn't even mentioned TemporalLich since # (and hasn't discussed anything potentially indicative of TemporalLich's alignment since #).
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Post Post #290 (isolation #18) » Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:20 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 289, OkaPoka wrote:i dont feel like pushing a new wagon right now because i like where im at
Why not push your current wagon, then? If you want TemporalLich lynched (or even just for the wagon to grow) you'll have to try to convince people. If you don't, your vote is worse than useless.
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Post Post #337 (isolation #19) » Fri Jul 05, 2019 3:43 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 315, Firebringer wrote:
In post 282, callforjudgement wrote:Firebringer, why didn't you answer #262? (I have a comment to make about it but don't want to get ahead of other people's questions, it tends to screw up their ability to form reads.)
Dunnstral hasn’t been following along, he needs to go read the game.
OK, so my own comment on #: I don't believe Firebringer has a scumread on TemporalLich, but rather a wrongread on TemporalLich (i.e. doesn't particularly think TemporalLich is scum, just that his reasoning is wrong). Dunnstral's post thus shows a lack of attention (which is pretty much what Firebringer said when answering the question).
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Post Post #338 (isolation #20) » Fri Jul 05, 2019 3:47 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Also, thinking about it from another angle: # is Dunnstral (slightly) pushing the wagon that OkaPoka isn't pushing. (Dunnstral in general hasn't engaged with the majority of slots, though, so it could just be an OMGUS-type thing.)

Dunnstral, what are your opinions on OkaPoka and on skitter?
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Post Post #395 (isolation #21) » Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:35 am

Post by callforjudgement »

My reads so far:

Top scumreads are the worst and OkaPoka (probably in that order, but neither is a strong read). the worst seems to be coasting somewhat, although I guess it could just be the general lack of effort? His read progression on Oka is weird (placing a vote, leaving it there in the apparent hope the wagon goes through, saying "I need to talk to Oka" (and Oka doing the opposite) and them missing each other for quite a bit of realtime, saying there's going to be a perfect Oka read coming (#), saying the Oka read has arrived (#), and then posting a readslist in # and I'm still not sure what the Oka read actually is. That readslist also has me somewhat suspicious (it's unclear how scummy the "most scummy" end of it is, but it feels like it's somewhere around nulltown, especially as the worst is voting for SnS rather than me); having difficulty forming scumreads is often indicative that a player is scum (although "scum is in the lurkers" is also plausible at this stage of the game).

OkaPoka, meanwhile, seems to be intentionally playing in an anti-town way despite me explaining several times why the playstyle is wrong and what can be done better; insisting on vote-parking on TemporalLich for no reason is just bizarre. (OK, so there was a reason, once; but a lot of other people disagree with it, so if you can't find additional reasons, your vote isn't doing anything where it is.) FWIW, I think the most likely the worst / Oka relationships are a) both scum, or b) one scum one town, with the scum trying to either pocket the townie or get them lynched. Both town would surprise me at this point, although my reads aren't strong enough to rule it out.

Dunnstral is only engaging with a small proportion of the slots, and doesn't seem to be reading the game much. That said, # is pretty townish; most scum I know don't say they're missing something, then spend the time to go looking for it (I remembered that the post in question was in-thread, but upon seeing # I decided to see how long it would take to actually find the post in the thread, and it was quite a while). I think Dunnstral's more likely to be scum than most players, but the play is most likely to come from a townie who just doesn't care much.

Firebringer's in a bit of a weird place; he seems to have different premises about how the game should be played than most of us do, and as such is coming to different conclusions. I don't think the Oka townread is unreasonable, although I don't disagree with it; "I'm going to act scummy, advertise the fact, and don't care what anyone thinks of me as a result" is IMO a scummy way to behave (especially if you aren't planning to change/explain once you've gotten reads from it), but Firebringer's words and actions both imply that Firebringer thinks it's a more townish way to behave. Many of Firebringer's reads seem fairly nuanced (e.g. #), which is rare for reads that scum are just making up. I guess my opinion about Firebringer is that I'm not sure he'd be able to play this way as scum (most people wouldn't be, but maybe Firebringer's better at scum than I'm expecting).

SnS is clearly out of her depth and hasn't posted anything alignment-indicative yet. The slot is probably going to be replaced (beyond prod range as I post this), and it's likely to be easier to read the replacement.

Many of skitter's posts have been "going through the motions" somewhat, they're things that are easy to post as town but also easy to post as scum who knows she'd post those things as town. On the other hand, the reads are harder/riskier to fake as scum (being honest about your reads as scum often leaves you caught by PoE), and are a good reason to read skitter as town. skitter seems to have been independently following much the same reasoning as me and coming to the same conclusions, which is evidence that she's thinking about the game from a town perspective.

My read on Sleepless Assassin hasn't changed (unsurprising given the V/LA and corresponding lack of posts): I don't think it's a playstyle that will be able to hide as scum for long, so I'll expect most of the town to be able to read SA accurately by day 2 or 3, and thus there's no reason to lynch the slot early (especially as I think it's also probably town).

TemporalLich is my strongest townread at the moment. The reads / read progression is about as town-indicative as skitter's, but the ISO is much more focused; there's less "going through the motions" and more bringing up points that seem to have required thinking about the game.
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Post Post #410 (isolation #22) » Sat Jul 06, 2019 11:10 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 408, Oversoul wrote:
In post 21, callforjudgement wrote:Well, I see #6 as rather scummier than #4. (Joking around is part of Firebringer's personality, indeed. IIRC, joking about being scum statistically happens more often when the person making the joke is scum, but it's so early in the game that there's not much else to joke about, so #4 doesn't indicate much.)
Is this true?
Which bit did you think is false?

If it's the statistic about joking about being scum, I vaguely remember that being the case from years ago but can't remember where I saw it, and might have misremembered.

Nothing in the post is a lie, though, i.e. I didn't write anything I believe to be false. If anything's false, it's due to me being mistaken.
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Post Post #417 (isolation #23) » Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:46 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

VOTE: OkaPoka (L-2)

I like Oversoul's reasoning for the town reads. I get the feeling that the reads are genuine (and if Oversoul is scum, are therefore based on forgetting what he knows about players' alignments and trying to read in a disinterested way, or possibly even a slip).

I'm still a bit suspicious about the scumreads, though (especially the read on Sleepless Assassin; there should be enough information pre-V/LA for the V/LA to not make that much difference, so lumping him together with SnS in a reads list is just weird). the worst's alleged strongest scumread was on me, and yet it wasn't much of a scumread, so I imagine that the worst was assuming that scum was most likely in the unsorted players. If we take the positiion of SnS on the reads list as a baseline for a no-info read (to me, she's obviously a newbie that can't get into the game, something that I consider completely null), Oversoul's reads list isn't all that different.

Nonetheless, this pushes Oversoul back below OkaPoka for my strongest scumread (also, unlike the worst, Oversoul is likely to become more readable as the game goes on, which is a good reason not to lynch there D1).
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Post Post #420 (isolation #24) » Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:47 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I don't roll scum very often, and some of the games where I have are weird in one way or the other, so I'm not sure any game where I've rolled scum is particularly representative. For example, in my most recent scum game, my first three posts (made as a triple-post) accidentally broke the game for town. My second most recent scumgame is probably fairly representative, but it was back in 2012, so I may well have changed since. I have two other scumgames (that I can find easily; I haven't really been keeping records), a multiball game where I bussed my whole scumteam (which isn't something I normally do) and a newbie from 2010 that might possibly be representative.

I need to get round to making a proper record of my games someday.
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Post Post #474 (isolation #25) » Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:30 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 379, OkaPoka wrote:and if you are asking why im not being an active pusher (my definition)

its because sweetnsassy isnt doing anything. once that slot starts doing something then ill try and canvas the two votes of dunn and the_worst and maybe canvas the vote of firebringer

but then again they have their own brains and if they dont feel like that lich post was scummy then i dont know what to say other than its scummy
Did you change your mind since this post?
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Post Post #485 (isolation #26) » Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:45 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I'm pretty sure that most scum would, if replacing in, look for excuses to push a hypothetically town OkaPoka to claim or lynch. (A minority of scum would instead decide to hard-defend him; I don't much see the point in this scum strategy, but I've seen it tried often enough to be aware it exists.)
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Post Post #487 (isolation #27) » Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:49 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 476, OkaPoka wrote:Yeah.

At the time I was banking on engaging with the worst and maybe getting a full sort that way but now I'm going to do things more independently.
Hmm.

As town, which of the three town skills (forming reads, pushing reads, being easy for other players to read you) do you value the most?
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Post Post #490 (isolation #28) » Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:12 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I guess what's confusing me is a) you don't look town and b) you pretty much obviously don't
care
about looking town, something that means that I find it hard to be confident in my read despite how scummily you've been acting. The latter is an unusual characteristic from both town and scum. (It's also the sort of thing that makes me want to check your scum meta, but it's 1am here so that'll have to wait until I'm more alert.)

(Re: your wagon, I'm not surprised it's gaining votes, but I'd expect scum to be pushing it harder if you were town. "Scum is AFK" could be a good explanation for that, but everyone has been active recently except Sleepless Assassin who is probably town.)
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Post Post #494 (isolation #29) » Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:17 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

(PEDIT: re #)

Or to put that last point a different way: there's a difference between a wagon growing because it's being pushed and a wagon growing because that's where most people have their strongest scumread, but they came to that conclusion without being talked into it.

In this case, I think I'm the only person who's really trying to talk about the development of their read on Oka, and in my case, I guess I'm more hoping that other people will help me sort (e.g. point out something I missed or a mistake in my reasoning) than I am hoping that other people will be persuaded and join me. There are things that give me pause without being all that persuasive, e.g. I would expect Firebringer to be better at reading OkaPoka than I am, and so if Firebringer is town, that makes OkaPoka more likely to be town too. On the other hand, pretty much all the logical evidence seems to point to Oka not playing like a townie would.
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Post Post #544 (isolation #30) » Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:40 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 528, Firebringer wrote:
In post 526, skitter30 wrote:townlean but i don't particularly like it
not what I was expecting. why?
I was expecting this. skitter seems to analyse the game in much the same way I do, and thus is likely to a) disagree with everything you're saying, but b) see that the reasoning behind it is consistent.

Actually, the main thing I'm surprised at is that skitter hasn't complained abut my recent activity. I've been having problems finding things to say about this game because it feels like not much is happening; there have been lots of posts but I haven't seen much alignment-indicative in them, and not much that warrants really pointing it out. So I haven't been posting as much as I'd like, and I feel like skitter would have picked up on that?

My current read on OkaPoka is conflicted; I think he's more likely than random to be scum, but maybe less than 50% to be scum. I guess it's that his actions are blatantly scummy, but emotionally he feels more town. (@
Firebringer
: do you have an argument for OkaPoka as town? I'd be interested to see it, it may help me to gather my own thoughts on the matter.)

PEDIT: This is definitely singleball. Multiball is explicitly abNormal in Micros.
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Post Post #545 (isolation #31) » Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:44 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 501, OkaPoka wrote:You have too much to lose to try and keep me afloat. You can't buddy a dead slot and you will end up being called a white knight. It sabotages you too much and in truth I think more townies have been called white knights than scum actually white knighting.
Could you clarify what you meant by this? I'm interpreting this as you asking Firebringer not to defend you because you fear he'll be scummy for doing so, but think I might have misinterpreted. (It can't be a scum breadcrumb/signal, which was my first thought, because scum have daytalk.)
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Post Post #556 (isolation #32) » Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:37 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I originally thought Kop's posts were townish, but I'd misread them (for some reason I thought they weren't talking about OkaPoka the first time I read them). Expressing a scumread on OkaPoka on new reasoning is a) what scum would be doing in that situation if OkaPoka were town but b) entirely reasonable as town too, so I ended up drawing no conclusions.
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Post Post #558 (isolation #33) » Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:49 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 557, skitter30 wrote:@cfj should i be worried that i'm starting to feel like ur buddying me?
I'm not buddying you intentionally. I guess it's more reasonable to be suspicious of me / discount what I'm saying somewhat if you think that that's what I'm doing (if I'm buddying you unintentionally, you should probably reduce your reliance on what I'm saying in much the same way as if I were tunnelling). Worrying seems like the wrong verb, though.
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Post Post #569 (isolation #34) » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:01 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 564, Kop wrote:So if you feel that he is less than 50% to be scum, why are you still voting for him?
I always like to have a vote out on my top scumread.

It's hard to be more than 50% confident that someone is scum on Day 1, without flips. (It's fairly uncommon to lynch scum Day 1, although it happens.)
Why are you bringing up your activity level with reasons that aren't exactly worthy enough as an answer, and saying your surprised that skitter hasn't brought it up, why Skitter, why no one else?
I don't believe in trying to keep things hidden as town (unless you're
really
widely townread, or have a mechanical certainty of being able to prove you're town, and want to keep things hidden in order to get reads). If you're being open with everyone, it's surprisingly hard to survive as scum without giving away your partners. So I like to do this as town precisely because it's hard to imitate as scum.

As for why skitter, I remembered skitter being particularly sensitive to activity levels. That might have been a misrememberence, but maybe I was thinking of #. (I didn't check the source before making the post. Perhaps I should be?)
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Post Post #570 (isolation #35) » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:03 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 418, Oversoul wrote:In general I find it suspicious when a player's activity changes, one way or another. If they go from posting a lot to posting a little, it seems like it could be scum who think they have secured the trust of the town. If they lurk and then DANGER appears causing them to become active, it could be scum doing some self-preservation.
Oh, this is what I was thinking of. I just misremembered who it was who posted it.
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Post Post #604 (isolation #36) » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:03 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 544, callforjudgement wrote:(@
Firebringer
: do you have an argument for OkaPoka as town? I'd be interested to see it, it may help me to gather my own thoughts on the matter.)
I think Firebringer either missed this or didn't have time to answer it due to V/LA, so I'm repeating it to make it clearer when Firebringer does a post-V/LA catchup,
In post 549, OkaPoka wrote:I am preempting the what if firebringer is buddying argument
I know it's become fashionable nowadays for scum to attempt to "pocket" townies, but back when I used to play, a more common scum strategy was to defend a townie they thought was likely to get mislynched in order to a) make people think "they didn't push the easy mislynch, they can't be scum" and b) make people think they have accurate reads; the buddying wasn't really an intended outcome. I personally don't understand the strategy but I've seen it commonly enough to be aware of it.

In the scenario where Firebringer's scum and you're town, he isn't doing it to pocket you, rather he's doing it so that the rest of us find it harder to scumread him after your townflip (or if you don't flip, he's doing it in the hope that you'll be an easy mislynch/low-hanging-fruit on a future day). I don't think this scenario is likely but I also don't think it's correct to discount it like that.

PEDIT1: Why are you surprised that people are voting for their top scumread? I agree that normal people don't vote and then change their reads to match the vote, but have you considered that players might read the game, gain reads as a result, and change their vote to match?

PEDIT2: Wow that was a lot of intervening posts. PEDIT1 was in response to #

PEDIT3: …
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Post Post #644 (isolation #37) » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:16 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I don't think Lich comes off especially scummy from this exchange.

I do think it makes it more likely that OkaPoka is town, though (either that, or OkaPoka's scumbuddy has been yelling at him to change his play in the scum thread). The reasoning makes my head hurt but it doesn't seem out of character from what OkaPoka's posted elsewhere in the thread, and I don't really see scum OkaPoka suddenly looking for reasons to justify an existing scumread after spending pages defending not having any (except on request from a scumbuddy). I need to do a meta dive on this but a) I'm lazy, b) I'm a bit busy with non-Mafia things at the moment and c) it's 2am. If I haven't within a couple of days, someone remind me.

VOTE: Kop
I'm concerned that Kop hasn't been reading more widely in the game yet; he's been focused on a) OkaPoka (fair enough for a first action in the game to focus on the player at L-1, but I'd expect something besides that), and b) "obvious" follow-up questions that don't contain any analysis, they're just questions that would likely come to mind for anyone reading the thread (e.g. #). There's nothing really wrong with what Kop has been posting (# is more defensive-for-no-reason than I'd like, but it's only one post and not a major scumtell), but the lack of posts on other subjects is concerning; it's showing less curiosity than I'd expect from a townie. For example, I'd expect Kop to have been looking at the OkaPoka/Lich interactions based on how frequently he's been mentioning them, and yet there's no comment on TemporalLich's alignment (all the read there is focused on OkaPoka).
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Post Post #646 (isolation #38) » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:24 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

People can be inconsistent in how consistent they are without being scum.

If someone is taking ridiculous care to make sure everything they say lines up, they're probably only going to go to that effort as scum; it's just not worth it as town. As town, you often want to go to that effort to some extent, because it a) helps you avoid getting confused about the gamestate and b) makes it less likely you'll be scumread by people who scumread for inconsistency, but it's rarely worth it to go all the way. (That said, putting in that sort of effort is rare even as scum.)

This in turn implies that inconsistent amounts of consistency are unlikely to be a scumtell.

(On the subject of inconsistency: why aren't you scumreading me, or are you? Just like TemporalLich, I've been mostly consistent in my posts, and my votes have matched my reads, but I've made the occasional mistake like mixing up whether it was skitter or Oversoul who made a particular post I remembered from the thread.)
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Post Post #662 (isolation #39) » Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:07 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 658, Sleepless Assassin wrote:
callforjudgement wrote: OkaPoka, meanwhile, seems to be intentionally playing in an anti-town way despite me explaining several times why the playstyle is wrong and what can be done better; insisting on vote-parking on TemporalLich for no reason is just bizarre. (OK, so there was a reason, once; but a lot of other people disagree with it, so if you can't find additional reasons, your vote isn't doing anything where it is.)
My stance on temp is almost identical to oka's. Why is it a reason to scum read him but you have me as a town read?
Timing. Reading someone who's scummy for something that happens at the time, voting them, then going V/LA and not moving your vote is not scummy. If you do the same thing, but are not V/LA, and you refuse to do anything with the vote and also refuse to push the read (or in general, refuse to really look at anyone but your current wagon which you also aren't trying to convince anyone else of), that's much scummier behaviour. (It's the same reason that active lurking – i.e. posting frequently, but nothing of substance – is much scummier than passive lurking, where you don't post at all, as the latter is probably influenced by real-life issues.)

OkaPoka did eventually start pushing the Lich read again, and came off more townish as a result, as it meant he was no longer playing intentionally anti-town for no good reason.
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Post Post #663 (isolation #40) » Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:12 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 660, Kop wrote:You don't think it's inherently scummy, that's your perception of it, but have you looked at it on both sides, is he town and the contradictions are wrong, or is it scum being caught in a contradiction?
What do you think TemporalLich was lying about?

(In my experience, scum tend to get caught in a contradiction only when at least one of the contradicting statements was an intentional lie and they couldn't keep their story straight.)
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Post Post #689 (isolation #41) » Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:28 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 688, Firebringer wrote:
In post 544, callforjudgement wrote:@Firebringer: do you have an argument for OkaPoka as town?
i don't think i have anything to convince you if you haven't found my current arguments compelling dude
# / # are both quite a while back. (Have I missed anything?)

I agree that OkaPoka is likely posting unfiltered thoughts to a large extent. It's less clear to me, though, that those thoughts are the thoughts that a townie would be having. Tunnelling's something that a townie can do, but it's also something that scum can fake easily (or even get into a genuine tunnel if they're trying to play the townie and forget they're scum). Tunnelling and then failing to find anything is just weird, normally townies would re-evaluate their reads when that happened. (OkaPoka did eventually find something new, which perhaps makes the lack of re-evaluation less scummy. Both of OkaPoka's reasons for scumreading TemporalLich are utterly bizarre, though; even if you agree with OkaPoka that they're scumtells, which most people here don't, they're definitely not strong enough scumtells to spend over 20 pages locked single-mindedly onto a single target.)

I guess the OkaPoka read basically comes down to "is this bizarre behaviour more likely from town or from scum?". It seems to at least have some sort of genuineness behind it, but that doesn't necessarily imply town when the underlying behaviour is unexpected (it's far from unheard of for scum to "open their hearts", the behaviour's normally considered townish because it tends to give away too much information when performed as scum, but when the underlying thoughts are alien there's much less information being given away). My default assumption is that when I don't understand what's going on, the person responsible has more information than I do (which on D1 of a Normal almost certainly implies scum). I think your (= Firebringer's) default assumption here is different?
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Post Post #690 (isolation #42) » Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:28 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 682, OkaPoka wrote:Why does nobody want to lynch lich?
How many people do you think agree with your reasons for scumreading Lich?
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Post Post #693 (isolation #43) » Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:47 am

Post by callforjudgement »

(PEDIT: re #) I guess my argument is that a), b), and c) can be "yes", "yes", "no" respectively – the most townish possibilities – and yet it might
still
be indicative of oka as scum. When someone gives you a window into their thought process, you need to evaluate the thoughts you see to determine whether it's a scummy or a townish thought process. (Otherwise, scum could just play completely openly and end up winning; I should know, I actually
did
that in Newbie 1157 and it worked, but I no longer think it's the best scum strategy. Notably, most of the experienced players in the dead thread, saw through it because I gave too much away, it only worked because I fooled a newbie and you only need to fool one townie in lylo.)

(PEDIT: re #) I agree that some people have different thought processes from others. You need to look at the core town/scum differences in order to evaluate a thought process you don't understand (most notably, townies have less information and thus are more curious, and scum have an incentive to protect their buddies). I try not to scumread someone for playing a long way from my view of what optimal town play is (that just doesn't work), but I am likely to end up scumreading someone if I don't see how their play could possibly make sense as town (even if I disagree with it).
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Post Post #700 (isolation #44) » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:04 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 694, OkaPoka wrote:could you explain exactly why my case is bad (in as few words as possible)?
The things you're calling out as scummy (early vote based on a player making the same vote twice, votes and reads usually but not always consistent with each other) are perfectly reasonable to come from townies (and there's no obvious scum gain). I don't agree that (my memory of) the read progression is unnatural.

To make a proper towncase I'll need to do a reread, and as it's 2am I should really be doing other things right now (like sleeping). I'll try to do that for you most likely some time tomorrow, but now is a bad time.
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Post Post #843 (isolation #45) » Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:09 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Ugh, I can't get to sleep, decide to check Mafiascum as something to do, and there's somehow another five pages in three hours in the middle of the night? I've read them but I'm not sure if I'm in the right mental state to comprehend them.

Something that's bothering me: most of the evidence OkaPoka is relying on for his current reasoning behind the TemporalLich scumread comes fairly early in the thread (with # apparently the latest relevant post; # was also mentioned but doesn't seem to contain any differing reads from #), yet the reason that OkaPoka is currently relying on comes at #/#. OkaPoka doesn't seem to have seen that particular read reasoning as recently as #…#.




In other news, as I can't sleep, I may as well make my own analysis of TemporalLich's read progression (this will be largely focused on OkaPoka both because it's a slot I've been focused on and because it was a slot TemporalLich was focused on):

Ignoring RVS wagons, TemporalLich's second real vote is #, explained in #. Oka's posts between # (where Lich had a "meh" read on TemporalLich) and # are #/# (with 164 probably being the relevant post). It seems like TemporalLich and OkaPoka had gradually started to establish a scumread on each other in the aftermath of #, TemporalLich's
first
real vote. AFAICT, OkaPoka thought that # was reasonable as an RVS vote, but when (#) TemporalLich stated that it was a genuine read, OkaPoka decided that that couldn't possibly be a genuine statement (#) and started scumreading TemporalLich for it. TemporalLich saw this scumread (by OkaPoka on TemporalLich) as so ridiculous that it couldn't be coming from town (and many of the more analytical players agreed), which is pretty clear from # … #. So I don't see anything unexpected or scummy about TemporalLich's read progression there, apart from the delay before the switch to OkaPoka (maybe he simply hadn't read through the thread or thought about it or whatever, plenty of other people have also been doing that this game, including both OkaPoka and me).

So by #, TemporalLich realises that there's not much purpose to continuing to vote for OkaPoka because the wagon is unlikely to go through immediately.
I think this is the #1 biggest playstyle difference between TemporalLich and OkaPoka, and if this is TvT, it explains where the mutual scumreads are coming from.
TemporalLich has decided that his current main wagon isn't going anywhere (having made a few attempts to push it but getting no new material), and decided that he can get better reads by pushing elsewhere. This is something that most experienced townies do (and most experienced scum are thus forced to fake) because it's one of the only ways to advance a deadlocked gamestate, and also means you can get a better evaluation of the gamestate more generally and maybe shake yourself out of a tunnel if you're wrong. Based on OkaPoka's behaviour, Oka apparently completely rejects this style of play, continuing to tunnel hard (and ineffectively) on a dying wagon even when I tried to prompt him to do otherwise. So OkaPoka is seeing TemporalLich as having artificial reads for wanting to push players other than his previous largest scumread, and I'm seeing OkaPoka as being intentionally useless for
not
doing that. So far, there's nothing scummy or artificial about TemporalLich's play, and it's obvious to me (based on trying to run through in my mind how other players are thinking given their general playstyles) that TemporalLich will move to the worst or Firebringer (or possibly Dunnstral, but that's less likely). TemporalLich settles on Firebringer (#), with the implication that it's for having terrible reads. The implication of # is that Lich
still thinks
OkaPoka is scum, but wants to see if a wagon can be built elsewhere (reading between the lines, part of the Firebringer scumread is that TemporalLich apparently thinks that no sane townie could have a townread on OkaPoka, and that's an opinion that's both incorrect and entirely believable/plausible).

What I pick up from #…# is that TemporalLich is angry. Probably if he sat back to think about the situation, Firebringer wouldn't actually have been his top scumread at that point, but Firebringer's playstyle (which is pretty different from, say, mine or TemporalLich's) is really a long way from how TemporalLich apparently thinks that town should play. Lich is asking for reasons, Fire is refusing to give them, Lich is annoyed and (for the moment, at least) sure in his vote on Fire who is from Lich's point of view being intentionally intransigent and anti-town. Probably this is subconscious, and Lich would think that he's simply thinking through the game logically (and say so if you asked him at the time), but right now # is at the forefront of Lich's mind (based on post timing, Lich has likely only just read it as part of a catchup), and Lich in the moment doesn't believe that anyone could possibly be scummier than Firebringer. He's been asked for a reads list, so when he makes it, Firebringer's in the top spot. (Actually, the main thing that concerns me about the reads list in question is that the worst is probably too high – I'd expect him to be null at best from Lich's point of view – but small issues like that really aren't enough to scumread someone over.)

By #, just two posts later but with an intervening reread/re-evaluation, TemporalLich has calmed down somewhat and realised that the Firebringer scumread probably isn't as strong as he emotionally thought it was, but is "still leaving my vote on firebringer because honestly refusing to explain stuff is not good for the town." At this point, OkaPoka is probably TemporalLich's top scumread, but really that's not the sort of thing you want to admit in-thread regardless of alignment when you're trying to pressure someone else, and the reason for not moving the vote is entirely plausible coming from a player like TemporalLich. As a result, the vote change in # really isn't a surprise; OkaPoka has been TemporalLich's top scumread for a long time, the wagon's looking viable again, his scumread on Firebringer is dying down somewhat, why wouldn't he change back? The only real surprise there is that the change didn't happen earlier.

Somewhat later, OkaPoka posts # complaining about Lich's readshifts. Lich sees the post, thinks "yes, that's a good summary of why I shifted (apart from missing why I'd scumread Firebringer), why on earth do you have that as a reason to scumread!". Then things descend into a bit of a nitpicking argument, especially as Lich can probably no longer remember the reasoning behind his reads. It wouldn't surprise me if some of them were post-rationalized gut reads; that's something I end up subconsciously doing all the time (if you think of yourself as an analytical player, it's rare for you to state a read without trying to rationalise it, and if you do, you'll try to rationalise it after the fact, but you'll often miss the real reason). I once had a game where I had four scumreads, three of them were the three scum, and after the game I discovered that none of the reasons I had for scumreading the players who were actually scum could possibly have been correct. That sort of accuracy is highly unlikely to be a coincidence, though.

Spoiler: Me catching all the scum for impossible reasons
In post 10943, callforjudgement wrote:Incidentally, it says quite a bit that out of the four players I read as scum over the course of the game (both watching it, and after replacing in), three of them were the three scum who existed in the game (sorry MathBlade for misreading you), and yet I feel like my scumhunting was terrible this game; every single player I caught, in retrospect my reason for catching them couldn't possibly have been correct. I had a strong read on Maxous as
group
scum (he wasn't), based on the way he claimed Survivor and on the fact that I felt the gamestate was most plausibly explained by a buddy covering for him with night actions. I thought the way SirCakez used night actions was implausible for a townie, but he was town at the time. I thought Gio had overclaimed, but the claim was entirely truthful. 3 out of 4 seems unlikely to be coincidence, and yet I still feel dissatisfied with the way my play turned out.


So in other words, I think that Lich's actual read progression has been pretty natural throughout the game, and that maybe there's been a bit of confusion in Lich's
stated
read progression that, if potentially regrettable, is nonetheless pretty plausible to have come from town. I also can't see much reason for scum to fabricate the particular reads in question (in particular, rejoining the OkaPoka wagon as the L-1 vote is probably a tactical mistake as scum, scum in Lich's position who wanted OkaPoka lynched or forced-to-claim could probably have naturally made themself the "intent to hammer" vote without it looking weird and it'd have increased the chance of someone else joining the wagon).
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Post Post #851 (isolation #46) » Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:56 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I think TemporalLich is sometimes confused about what his own reads are.

I don't think that's particularly scummy, especially for a player who isn't concentrating on the game continuously. It's easy to forget the state of a game you haven't been actively concentrating on. (In a way, I think it's more likely to happen as town than scum, especially with daytalk, because the scum PT makes a convenient notes PT to make sure you don't forget what your fabricated reads are.) I've had to ISO myself something like 3-5 times this game in order to remind myself about bits of the gamestate that I'd forgotten.

PEDIT: As a side note, it's hard to play the game when anything you say leads to what feels like 7 or 8 rebuttal posts. I don't think you're intentionally doing that to hurt town, but I think it does hurt town – it's part of the reason the Geriatric Ruleset is popular – and as a consequence, I suspect that much of the playerlist is going to skip the past several pages.

PEDIT:
OkaPoka wrote:I really have no idea where your getting this idea that temporal lich pushes people for content thing though. It's out of left field.

We can literally see how temporal acts in a stagnate gamestate
In post 141, TemporalLich wrote:someone should put dunn in the tent
In post 143, TemporalLich wrote:
In post 142, Firebringer wrote:why r u so confident in dunn being scum?
I've got no other SR's and the game is stagnating.
He's transparent in that his scumread is his vote.

And he sticks with it, wanting to get intent to hammer which I can only presume he wants a roleclaim from dunn asap? I mean thats content in one way.
BUT

content can be better derived by pushing another wagon no? And he doesn't start another wagon, no he waits for dunn wagon to DIE before doing other stuff. Tell me how a content motivated player waits for others to break stagnation makes sense.
a) Pushing the wagon you're on for a while to see if anyone joins you makes sense, giving up on pushing it (and looking elsewhere) if nobody is following you also makes sense; b) the thing you're complaining about here is exactly what you've been doing, only you did it to a much greater extent (for long enough for a wagon to build on you, die, and rebuild again, that's the main reason most people were scumreading you). Besides, I think TemporalLich was being honest about having no scumreads other than Dunnstral as of #; it's hard to get scumreads that early (and the posts he scumread you for came later, other than # which he probably hadn't read until #).
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Post Post #853 (isolation #47) » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:01 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 850, OkaPoka wrote:CJF if you are so sure in town lich and town me for some reason

Go and scum case kop for me. Put the same effort you did into defending lich lol
My case on Kop is written out in #. Kop's only made one post since, #, which doesn't seem to contribute anything to the game (and looks rather like lurking whilst trying to make it look like you aren't lurking; it also doesn't actually answer the question it quotes). If he can put into the effort to write a fairly long post that doesn't go anywhere, why not put in the effort to attempt to read somewhere off the wagon? So that's more of an extension of my original read.

If Kop posts more then there will be more posts to react to and get a read from.
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Post Post #855 (isolation #48) » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:21 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Really I've lost track of most of the slots because you've been trying to make the game all about TemporalLich (and thus indirectly making it all about you). I'd like to evaluate more widely, but the heavy focus on one thing has effectively given town slots a reason and scum slots an excuse not to interact with anyone else, making town and scum behaviour more similar. (Dunnstral, for example, has been acting in a way I'd consider scummy in most gamestates but maybe not in this one; he's been posting only self-justification and information in the last 250 posts or so, but I can see that happening as town when the gamestate is overwhelming you.)

I'm not at the point in the game where I can attempt a full solve; there's too much missing information. (Really, it's hard to get anywhere in terms of full solves until you have a scumflip.)

For what its worth, though, I think that if you're scum, Sleepless Assassin is the most likely partner (# is possibly a scumslip, I vaguely remember having seen that exact slip before but can't remember where; the scumread on TemporalLich in # also seems a bit like an echo of you, although it's hard to be certain that that's the actual cause). Either way, he's probably unlikely to ever finish catching up at this point given the apparent work restrictions and the speed of the thread, and I haven't seen much to think he's scum other than associatives.
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Post Post #879 (isolation #49) » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:36 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 863, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 855, callforjudgement wrote:but I can see that happening as town when the gamestate is overwhelming you.
The only thing that overwhelms me are the warm, fuzzy feelings I get when some of the cast here makes a post. Boy, I love that everyone is so unique. By the way, why would the gamestate be overwhelming instead of underwhelming? It feels like a lot of people have been content to vote park for days on end
It depends on whether you measure activity in posts or votes.

The number of posts we've had has been very high, most of them not being particularly useful. That makes a catchup difficult because you have to read them all to see if there's anything important there, or else ignore them all and miss anything important that might be there.
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Post Post #880 (isolation #50) » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:44 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 859, Kop wrote:Well at this stage, it doesn't look like the Oka wagon is going to be the final wagon, there's got to be a compromise. You have 2/3 other possibilities, why not pursue them, I haven't seen your cases against them.
Are you townreading OkaPoka?

On another note, what's your read on TemporalLich?
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Post Post #886 (isolation #51) » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:23 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 853, callforjudgement wrote:My case on Kop is written out in #. Kop's only made one post since, #, which doesn't seem to contribute anything to the game (and looks rather like lurking whilst trying to make it look like you aren't lurking; it also doesn't actually answer the question it quotes). If he can put into the effort to write a fairly long post that doesn't go anywhere, why not put in the effort to attempt to read somewhere off the wagon? So that's more of an extension of my original read.

If Kop posts more then there will be more posts to react to and get a read from.
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Post Post #887 (isolation #52) » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:25 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Kop has posted since then, # is a couple of questions I had when trying to evaluate the more recent posts.
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Post Post #889 (isolation #53) » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:30 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Not as far as I know / can remember. (I don't normally try to decode who the player behind an alt is, so it's possible I've played with him without realising.)
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Post Post #905 (isolation #54) » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:04 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 895, OkaPoka wrote:
In post 855, callforjudgement wrote:Really I've lost track of most of the slots because you've been trying to make the game all about TemporalLich (and thus indirectly making it all about you). I'd like to evaluate more widely, but the heavy focus on one thing has effectively given town slots a reason and scum slots an excuse not to interact with anyone else, making town and scum behaviour more similar. (Dunnstral, for example, has been acting in a way I'd consider scummy in most gamestates but maybe not in this one; he's been posting only self-justification and information in the last 250 posts or so, but I can see that happening as town when the gamestate is overwhelming you.)

I'm not at the point in the game where I can attempt a full solve; there's too much missing information. (Really, it's hard to get anywhere in terms of full solves until you have a scumflip.)

For what its worth, though, I think that if you're scum, Sleepless Assassin is the most likely partner (# is possibly a scumslip, I vaguely remember having seen that exact slip before but can't remember where; the scumread on TemporalLich in # also seems a bit like an echo of you, although it's hard to be certain that that's the actual cause). Either way, he's probably unlikely to ever finish catching up at this point given the apparent work restrictions and the speed of the thread, and I haven't seen much to think he's scum other than associatives.
cfj i literally let town do whatever they wanted to do for more than 50% of the deadline and all we had to show for it was two attempts to run me up to l1 with the same exact people and people basically ignoring the non posters

at least with this interaction other slots are weighing in finally and you really should have zero excuse not to have a semblance of a solve. i dont care if you dislike the focus, none of your earlier posts contain anything resembling a solve other than oka is antitown lul. the person your voting is kop, who is scum with kop? is kop even scum? what are you trying to do ? you've lost track of your reads, read your iso and you even say that town should be fully transparent so i guess you should have some reads hidden in there? im giving you room right now to do something otherwise im doing it my way again.
Thinking you can solve the game day 1 is just being overly optimistic, even conceited. Town rarely actually lynches scum on day 1; the best day 1s are normally when you catch the scum manipulating the lynch and get to solve the game day 2 after a town lynch.

"other slots are weighing in finally" – that didn't happen because you spamposted, it happened because you
stopped
spamposting and gave the game room, and it also happened because people came off V/LA (which is nothing to do with anyone's actions in game).

You also aren't nearly townread enough to take over the game, being easily in the bottom half. A TemporalLich lynch is very unlikely to happen (to the extent that I'm starting to wonder if you're scum together, because you've more or less manipulated a situation in which Lich is never going to be lynched today because people are fed up of hearing the same weak arguments over and over again). I'm guessing that you're going to be the most likely compromise lynch at deadline. If you don't want that to happen, you'll want to try to convince people of a better one.

I can't see any good reason not to try to gather reads until we're very close to deadline; I'm not directing the game in any particular direction right now because i'm not sure enough of my reads to do so. In particular, I'm not the sort of person who tries to powertunnel people unless I'm sure (and even when I'm sure, I'm still often wrong, something that makes me still more cautious to do so).

On a separate subject, do you have a strong town read on Dunnstral?
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Post Post #919 (isolation #55) » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:30 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

(PEDIT: re #; also, 12 new posts since I started writing this?)

In that case I'm very suspicious of #. It feels to me like you're trying to manipulate the gamestate away from certain wagons when you don't have a townread on the players in question. Like, the wagon on you has collapsed (for a second time), skitter starts looking elsewhere, then you get annoyed with her for looking in the wrong place even though you don't disagree with her reads?

(# is also confusing me. You're acting like it's common knowledge that you have a very strong scumread on Kop, yet you haven't really done much to express it so far; I don't count # because that's clearly a pressure post. I didn't really pick up much of a Kop read from reading your posts over the course of the game, and going back and ISOing you all I can pick up is that you think Kop must be scum because if someone else off your wagon was scum, you would have been hammered?)

On a slightly different note, you seem to be having "recursive tunnel reads", you start with a premise (in this case, that Lich is really strong scum), then use it as a lens through which to view the whole gamestate (e.g. you're apparently viewing anyone who votes skitter as suspect because Lich is voting skitter, even though you apparently don't have much of a townread on skitter apart from that).

Combining the two points: it feels to me at the moment like you feel you need a scumread on Kop for whatever reason (perhaps because you think it's the only/main way to make TemporalLich make sense as scum), but don't have a strong independent scumread, and are trying to find a natural way to move into that position without post-rationalising (after all the discussion we've had about post-rationalisation so far this game, it's understandable that you wouldn't want to be caught doing that yourself!). Thus the fairly panicky calls for me to explain my Kop vote, presumably so that you can sheep me after the explanation.

I would like Kop to answer #, though, as I think the answers would be helpful for reading him (the questions were inspired by his recent string of posts). Working out why I asked the questions might also be useful for reading me.
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Post Post #924 (isolation #56) » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:34 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 909, OkaPoka wrote:Town flip Kop, idk what we get from it.

CFJ what do you do if you see a green flip Kop?
It would make me more suspicious of skitter.

However, information from the lynch wagon (and/or posts by people trying to stop it) would more likely be more important in determining my reads the next day.

PEDIT (PEDIT2: re: #): What precisely do you mean by "posturing" here? Specifically, do you mean that he was implying he would hammer you without planning to go through with it, or do you mean that you suspected he would hammer you but events got in the way?
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Post Post #936 (isolation #57) » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:47 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 934, OkaPoka wrote:there is an implication of me wanting my buddies to bus if im scum here
Just trying to understand your argument: are you saying that you can't be scum, because if you were, you were breadcrumbing to your buddy that you wanted them to bus you and thus you would have been lynched by now?
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Post Post #965 (isolation #58) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:12 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 949, Kop wrote:
In post 880, callforjudgement wrote:
In post 859, Kop wrote:Well at this stage, it doesn't look like the Oka wagon is going to be the final wagon, there's got to be a compromise. You have 2/3 other possibilities, why not pursue them, I haven't seen your cases against them.
Are you townreading OkaPoka?

On another note, what's your read on TemporalLich?
I'm not necessarily town reading Oka. I can't possibly see scum tunnelling as hard as Oka in regards to wanting Lich lynched. Scum will obviously want to manipulate the game state I agree, but I don't see them putting a huge marker on there back by going into a hard tunnel that is almost making it a trade. Then posturing themselves into a position where they are going to look elsewhere if he doesn't get his own way, i.e he will force through a lynch on Skitter, and myself (you quoted the post #669 I think it was or somewhere around that region). But I'm not town reading him either because he has actively said he plays better as scum so I don't know for sure whether he's town or scum, hes somewhere in the middle.

Lich I'm not 100% sure, I don't think he's scum based on his contradictions. I can't see scum playing so loosely. I know I mentioned about the contradictions and said when does that tell stop, but I wanted to see what Skitter thought about it and has she not taken any other perceiving angle on it apart from town play carefree. I've not got a interest in voting there at this time, unless something changes.

But if this tunnel continues and we aren't exactly finding some middle ground, and we're getting nearer deadline, something will need to happen because if one or both are still around in day two, day two could potentially be another day one, but this time there will be some flips to also add to the mix. But it's going to take a better case if people need convincing. I will reread the whole interaction between the pair of them in the mean time.
From my point of view, OkaPoka is the most likely deadline lynch; there aren't four players (other than OkaPoka) with a strong townread there. Apparently, your read of the situation is similar. But in #, you're scumreading skitter for not looking elsewhere for a compromise lynch? I can understand this behaviour if you think OkaPoka is strongly town, but not really in a case where you've been sort-of-on sort-of-off that wagon ever since you replaced in. FWIW, the reason you've given for townreading OkaPoka is stronger than the reason you've given for scumreading him, but you're acting like the two are identical; likewise, when you replaced in, there was a lot of shading but no intent. So I have the strong feeling that you a) want people to
think
you want OkaPoka lynched, but b) don't
actually
want OkaPoka lynched. That likely implies you're scum regardless of OkaPoka's alignment (as S/S, it's a great way to distance if he flips, and doesn't actually hurt him much; as S/T, you'd want to save a likely mislynch for a future day if you don't think scum are at real risk toDay).

I asked the question about Lich to see if you'd been trying to scumhunt anywhere other than your stated reads, and from your answer, I'm guessing you hadn't been. That's not good play as town (although not necessarily scum-indicative; some people aren't that good at town).
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Post Post #966 (isolation #59) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:15 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 964, Sleepless Assassin wrote:People should move their votes to temp.
Your stated reasoning for this (#/#) is very similar to OkaPoka's, which hasn't convinced enough people to give a realistic chance of a lynch.

If you want to push this lynch, you'll need arguments that are strong enough to convince people; coasting on existing arguments is unlikely to make any progress.
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Post Post #968 (isolation #60) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:18 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 963, OkaPoka wrote:Dirty as in threatening skitter to get her to move
You do realise that attempting to
manipulate
people to vote along with you is generally a really bad idea when you're town (and don't have investigative info)? It makes you look scummy, tends to backfire if people figure it out, and means that you don't have other people giving you a sanity check on your own reads.

(As a side note, did you expect the manipulation to succeed, and how good do you think you generally are at that sort of thing?)
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Post Post #970 (isolation #61) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:37 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I don't agree with everything that Dunnstral's posting, but most of what he has posted recently seems like it comes from a position of thought about the game. He's not being particularly useful, and doesn't have enough content for a strong townread, but it's not a slot I'm particularly alarmed about.

I'd be willing to deadline lynch Dunnstral if I couldn't get a lynch on a better option but not to vote there from a position of any confidence.
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Post Post #972 (isolation #62) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:48 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I think many of the points he's made against you are valid (e.g. the case against you is better than the case against TemporalLich). That said, it's not nearly a strong enough case to votepark without further explanation.

FWIW, unlike OkaPoka who's shown strong signs of tunnelling, I'm pretty sure Dunnstral isn't tunnelling (e.g. he was willing to attack OkaPoka even while OkaPoka was "attacking" you). Regardless of Dunnstral's alignment, I think his points are things he perceives as genuine scumtells (which can of course be dropped by townies on occasion). The main one is #/# which basically attacks you for pushing a read based on incorrect reasoning; I agree with him that the reasoning is incorrect, but also think it's not a scumtell because I suspect you thought the reasoning was correct at the time.
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Post Post #980 (isolation #63) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:07 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 979, Firebringer wrote:we need a lynch
VOTE: skitter
But why
that
lynch? Do you not have scumreads on any of the players who are more likely to be lynchable?
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Post Post #982 (isolation #64) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:11 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I don't see that as going with the flow. The only people with a skitter scumread are Dunnstral and Kop (OkaPoka claimed that their vote a while back was part of a fake scumread), and both those players are more likely than average to be scum. So I think you may have joined a scum-driven wagon.
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Post Post #988 (isolation #65) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:37 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I'm willing to move to either OkaPoka or Dunnstral as a compromise lynch.
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Post Post #991 (isolation #66) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:45 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

a) that seems like a pretty unlikely lynch to push through in less than 24 hours, b) I'm not scumreading him anyway. If you have a case for Oversoul as scum I'd be interested to hear it, but it's likely late enough in the Day that it would have no impact until Day 2 (except inasmuch as it would help in reading you).
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Post Post #996 (isolation #67) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:10 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 994, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 417, callforjudgement wrote:Nonetheless, this pushes Oversoul back below OkaPoka for my strongest scumread (also, unlike the worst, Oversoul is likely to become more readable as the game goes on, which is a good reason not to lynch there D1).
What happened to this? Has Oversoul become more readable?
I was assuming that Oversoul's inactivity was just a flake, but I just checked rather than assuming, and he was in fact active elsewhere on site, something which rather increases the chance he's scum here (over what I was thinking). That said, he's in a lot of games at the moment, so I suspect he isn't paying much attention to this one, making the tell a bit weaker. Nonetheless, thanks for the reminder; my default is normally to assume that people are town and thus my scumread on someone tends to fade over time if they aren't posting anything scummy.

He hasn't become that much more readable yet due to the lack of recent postinig, but it should become clearer in time.

Re #, "unlikely lynch" is pretty important when deciding where to push in the last 24 hours when someone is V/LA. Lynching somebody is almost certainly better than lynching nobody, and you also need to take into account the time it'll take to sort out a claim.
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Post Post #1017 (isolation #68) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:40 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

No. I don't believe I'm fracturing at all; rather, what's happened is that the game is fairly split as it is (between players who are more logical, and players who prefer different methods of solving the game). Some players (e.g. TemporalLich and you, on opposite sides) are popular lynch choices with one group but widely townread by the other, and in general each group is scumreading primarily people within the other group.

I have, however, been trying to point out the existence of the splits to avoid players trying to drive nonviable lynch wagons.
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Post Post #1018 (isolation #69) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:41 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1005, Oversoul wrote:We have been getting 48 hour additions to the deadline like every day for the last 5 days.
Huh? The deadline this game hasn't been extended at all.
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Post Post #1022 (isolation #70) » Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:16 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I need to sleep, and probably will be awake enough to participate before deadline but I'm not completely sure (my sleep schedule's been pretty messed up over the last few days).

Dunnstral, are you willing to vote for either OkaPoka or Kop as a compromise lynch?
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #71) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:44 am

Post by callforjudgement »

VOTE: OkaPoka

In case I don't get back online before deadline. (I consider this the most likely lynch to go through.)
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Post Post #1051 (isolation #72) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 8:45 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I'm here.

VOTE: Kop
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Post Post #1052 (isolation #73) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 8:45 am

Post by callforjudgement »

(L-1, and we need to lynch someone because there are less than 6 hours left.)
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Post Post #1054 (isolation #74) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:38 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1025, TemporalLich wrote:I think I am willing to compromise on Kop though Oka (my ideal vote) is still the wagon.

I'd rather NL then vote skitter. Thats how towny skitter is.
The compromise on Kop looks like the most viable one to me at the moment (in addition to being my preferred lynch). Could you shift there?
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Post Post #1057 (isolation #75) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:56 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I've moved already. We need one extra person besides me (and you).

There are unlikely to be enough people around to hammer an alternate wagon: we only have about 4½ hours left and skitter is V/LA, with several other players not posting very often. As such, forcing a claim is mostly pointless (unless Kop happens to be Informed) as we'd have to hammer anyway.
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Post Post #1061 (isolation #76) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:14 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1059, OkaPoka wrote:Waiting on a kop
Unless you're expecting Kop to self-hammer, we're actually waiting on anyone
but
Kop.

The entire Kop wagon is active in the thread, and nobody else is.
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Post Post #1062 (isolation #77) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:14 am

Post by callforjudgement »

EBWOP: but there are only four of us, so we need a fifth person to turn up to be able to hammer.
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Post Post #1065 (isolation #78) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:19 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1063, OkaPoka wrote:i want kop to fullclaim
Are you intending to self-hammer?
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Post Post #1069 (isolation #79) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:28 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1068, OkaPoka wrote:somebody else needs to show up and vote kop though

unless you want to hammer then just say it in thread and ill re put the vote
I want Kop hammered (don't particularly care who does it), but even with your vote and mine (and those of everyone else active) we're a vote short. So we need somebody else to show up in any case.
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Post Post #1071 (isolation #80) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:33 am

Post by callforjudgement »

The viable skitter hammerwagon being Dunnstral + Kop + Firebringer + you + me?

I'll do that to avoid a no-lynch but it's pretty terrible as lynches go.
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Post Post #1080 (isolation #81) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:42 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I'm also bewildered as to what Kop's planning to claim. He's softclaimed "confirmable role, not forced to a specific alignment, not Fruit Vendor or Neighbourizer". The only possibilities seem to be Mailman, Neighbour (in which case someone else can claim it), or something with the Loud or Announcing modifier.

PEDIT: OK, it's Mailman. That isn't a role strong enough to be worth saving, and is probably more useful in scum hands than town hands.

If it is in town hands, it gives us a lot of information about the setup: specifically, with most moderators, it'd be highly likely that town has (other than the Mailman) one strong or two weak power roles, probably without much to counter them on the scum side. I'd be imagining the setup to be something like a newbie setup with the Mailman role added to make the setup a bit less vanilla, and as an attempt at a balance tweak.

The claim is unlikely to be false, but may be scum claiming an alignment-flipped version of their role.
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Post Post #1081 (isolation #82) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:44 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1076, Kop wrote:I dont self vote. Lynching me what does they achieve info wise
It's slightly about info, but mostly about avoiding any risk that you get mislynched on a
future
day and lose town an additional day.

We have an odd number of players alive. There probably isn't a Vigilante in a 9p game, and a save from the scum nightkill is possible but unlikely. So if we no-lynch, then eventually we'll be no-lynching again at mylo, meaning scum can kill anyone that they like. It's much better to let town direct the kill, removing a scummy-looking slot from the lynchpool.
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Post Post #1084 (isolation #83) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:46 am

Post by callforjudgement »

OkaPoka isn't the
only
possible counterwagon, skitter is also possible. Lich isn't a possible counterwagon though.
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Post Post #1090 (isolation #84) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:51 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I'd move to basically anyone to avoid a no-lynch.

I'm not sure why Kop would force the lynch of Lich over Skitter, though.
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Post Post #1092 (isolation #85) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:51 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I guess I'd be willing to let Firebringer make that decision if Firebringer feels strongly that a particular player should be lynched, though.
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Post Post #1098 (isolation #86) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:55 am

Post by callforjudgement »

People in general seem much more passionate about lynching Lich than Skitter, so I guess if I had to pick I'd pick Lich, not so much because I think there's much chance of a scumflip, but because it's likely to lead to the players being less distracted/split on future days.
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Post Post #1100 (isolation #87) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:57 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1094, OkaPoka wrote:Kop not moving is noted.
You shouldn't have noted that until Kop actually made a post. People simply being offline is fairly common, even in time-critical situations (and someone saying they'll be around at deadline doesn't mean they'll be around continuously until then; I'm likely to leave for half an hour or so at one point).
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Post Post #1110 (isolation #88) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:05 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1109, OkaPoka wrote:ball in your court cfj
If you were planning to shift people over to Lich regardless, why did you force the claim from Kop?
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Post Post #1113 (isolation #89) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:08 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Mailman isn't an alignment-linked role. The wiki page even lists Town, Mafia, and Serial Killer as possible alignments.
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Post Post #1117 (isolation #90) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:12 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1112, OkaPoka wrote:I was interested in his claim
But that information is more useful for scum than town. It's normally better to leave scum in the dark about whether they should kill the slot to avoid a strong power role or not.

Forcing claims from people who you aren't planning to hammer is about as strong a scumtell as primarily hunting for Serial Killers; it's being curious about information that scum are missing, which is a kind of curiosity that scum can have, rather than being curious about information that scum already have (which tends to imply not being scum). Worse, it
also
helps scum aim their kills correctly.
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Post Post #1120 (isolation #91) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:16 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1118, TemporalLich wrote:Holy heck I got flashwagoned

Yeah I am not self-voting
The choice today is probably down to lynching you or lynching Kop.
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Post Post #1126 (isolation #92) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:25 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1123, TemporalLich wrote:
In post 1121, OkaPoka wrote:So Lich you keeping your vote where its at?
if there were actually a wagon on Kop I would have shifted my vote.

Since I'm at L-1 my vote stays on actual scum.
There was a wagon on Kop earlier (which was only 1 vote short).

As it is, the wagon may be unlikely to reform because OkaPoka is unlikely to move there if he thinks he can force your lynch instead.
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Post Post #1127 (isolation #93) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:27 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1122, OkaPoka wrote:CFJ are you not going to give intent?
I think that in a deadline situation, intent is less important: forcing a claim then shifting is really bad for town, and if you're not going to shift, you just hammer.

The better way to put it would be as follows: Lich should decide whether he's likely to be the compromise lynch, and if he thinks he is,
and
he has a role strong enough to warrant forcing the lynch elsewhere, then claiming would be a good idea. Otherwise, he can choose not to claim, and expose himself to the potential risk of a hammer without a claim; but that's better for town in the case where someone else gets lynched instead.
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Post Post #1130 (isolation #94) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:30 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1129, Dunnstral wrote:I'm here
You should move to a more viable wagon. Today's lynch will almost certainly be Kop, Lich, or possibly OkaPoka. Your vote may well help to decide which.
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Post Post #1133 (isolation #95) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:39 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Neither of those are viable wagons.

I would prefer Lich over Skitter, and don't think there are the votes available to lynch Oversoul.
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Post Post #1139 (isolation #96) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:48 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1134, TemporalLich wrote:
callforjudgement wrote:I would prefer Lich over Skitter, and don't think there are the votes available to lynch Oversoul.
you know what, I'm taking this as intent and claiming

The fact Kop claimed is a major blessing to me. I'm a TA, therefore Kop is basically a miller fmpov
Oh,
that
makes a lot of sense.

That claim is possibly a scum fakeclaim, but likely to sort itself out one way or the other (scum won't want to leave a Traffic Analyst alive unless one of them dies early). If the Traffic Analyst and Mailman claims are both correct, there should be a fairly powerful town role out there somewhere (better than Tracker), or else two weaker town roles. (Of course, we don't want the holders of those roles to claim.) This doesn't necessarily imply that Kop is town, but if Kop is scum (and has been given the Mailman role to effectively make them immune to investigation), there'll be a
lot
of town power out there and this should become obvious by lylo. So Kop and TemporalLich are now both bad lynches for today.

Who might there be a viable compromise wagon on? OkaPoka? Oversoul? Dunnstral? Sleepless Assassin?
VOTE: Dunnstral

Fixed formatting.
~Ircher
Last edited by Ircher on Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #1140 (isolation #97) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:48 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Err, I screwed up the quote tags, the quoted text was actually said by me, the text up to …[/quote] by TemporalLich.
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Post Post #1148 (isolation #98) » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:55 am

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 1144, OkaPoka wrote:Probably one weak town power role left
No, stronger.

FWIW, there was a Micro with Traffic Analyst + Tracker + 5 vs. 2 a while back; it was judged as balanced (if somewhat swingy) and seemed balanced even after the game. I suspect adding a Mailman on either side makes it more scumsided (unless the setup designer was expecting a town Mailman to save themself with setup speculation), so we'd need more than a Tracker within the hidden roles to balance.
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Post Post #2100 (isolation #99) » Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:14 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Hmm. Once TemporalLich flipped town and thus proved the existence of a Roleblocker, there's no way that Kop could have been scum purely on balance concerns; Traffic Analyst + Friendly Neighbour versus Roleblocker + Goon (fakeclaiming Mailman) isn't nearly enough town power to balance the setup. (Additionally, the Mailman claim came
before
the Traffic Analyst claim; that's not something that scum are going to fake unless they're Informed, which doesn't make sense given the rest of the setup.) So Kop should have been treated as confirmed town by everyone Day 3, and anyone pushing Kop should have been treated as scum as a result.

# is, IMO, very disrespectful play in a Normal (where you know that there can't be Supersaints or Vengefuls or the like hoping you'll quickhammer), unless you're worried that you miscounted the votes (not hard in this case given the vote count at the top of the page); the rest of the game from that point onwards becomes pointless, because you've already won, and yet you're still forcing everyone else living to participate and obey activity restrictions. I don't think it's playing against wincon, but I would prefer to see less (or none) of it in future. (FWIW, I once considered doing that myself as scum, because it was a Theme game and the quickhammerable player had claimed something that might conceivably interact with being lynched, but the moment got to me and I quickhammered anyway. I wouldn't have considered it if I knew for certain that the hammer would win the game, though.)
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