Newbie 1942 - Dead Thread

[teacher]

Quack for the kind words.

Still inclined a bit to FF, but would be willing to sheep Ico to Cyrus.

I’m a bit burnt out on mafia generally, so think I’m hanging it up for the rest of summer. Carl you were a force to play with and I think I ultimately get you off me. You had an early post doubting me and sleepless as a team I use then I march through the game state and my posts/reasons. Even the hammer makes sense from town (paranoia of bussing) but never really scum.

[teacher]

I’m good either way. My plan for the day (had I not been hammered) was to check Around the time of Icos hammer and see if there was sleepless momentum too. If not, I would have locked him as town. I’m not going to try to follow the thread or even the last 24 hours while I was still alive so you aren’t taking anything away from me.

[teacher]

Let the mod have her way. She’s doing the service of modding the Twitter train wreck. I’m leaning insomnia then Cyrus atm, but would have a tough time choosing who was doing the pocketing between FF and Cyrus if there is a kill tonight.

[teacher]

insomnia claimed before emps, and the two claims are doctor and jailer. There is a nearly 90% chance that a counterclaim occurs; if the setup isn't exactly C2, a counterclaim exists somewhere. I could understand if a potential counterclaimant would stay quiet during d2, since the potential counterclaimant is always an investigative role and doesn't want to draw undue attention, but by now, with everyone checking in d3 and with the game moving toward a solution to solve it, there should have been a counterclaim. I do not think insomnia was in enough trouble to risk a nearly 90% chance of counterclaim that would certainly result in his being hanged.

It was only 50%

Scum knows the column (C) simply from knowing their roles.
Scum knows there is a protective if they submitted a kill.
Leaves C2 and C3.

Spoiler:

Claiming doc first takes the 50% shot, and outs the protective of it exists, on the hope that the real doc gets lynched first, the scum!doc gets lynched at mylo1, and their partner can survive mylo2

Also regarding your NK, it was necessary to keep FF as a suspect. If they kill emps, FF is clear and you, leaving a lynchpool of exactly me-insomnia for town to win the game, since you had written off Cyrus

[teacher]

Walk me through why they know that killing emps clears FF--if emps dies we don't find out he jailed FF yeah?

Look at emps positioning before the clarity wagon and even right during. I would have wagered ALL my poker money on him keeping fishy that night and would have outted that. If emps has died, I clear fish. Like emps said at the start of the day, his jk pick was obvious.

[teacher]

And emps is making the right play picking his one solid town and eliminating the rest of the pool. My only concern in doing so is the mercurial nature of that town.

[teacher]

Insomnia should concede.

[teacher]

Can you suggest they make the pagetop of 200 the lynch of insomnia?

[teacher]

VOTE: Cyrus

fF is a true idiot if he can’t see the auto win and sell Cyrus on it. I don’t see why he’s fighting this. I get Cy, but not him. Emps has the patience of a saint.

[teacher]

But why not cover your bases? It is auto. See newb 1923 where RC explains the same thing where I was soloscum fakeclaiming doctor who was Jailed (by RAS, who knew the setup, but that’s an another story)

Yes, it is auto, but emps plan covers the bases of insomnia being town, and lynches the other two possibilities first before hitting the high probability.

I’ll agree that at this point, given Cyrus play today, emps should be questioning his two person lylo and willing to reevaluate, but his play is the mechanically correct one. I’ll also add, given Cyrus play today, I would not concede in insoms shoes.

[teacher]

Also, from emps POV, he’s got known town (me) suspecting FF and FF’s obvious and irrational desire not to be lynched today. He should cover.

[teacher]

Oh my ducking god, FF just put the only conf town at L-1. His ego truly is special.

[teacher]

I still feel like this plan has holes if insomnia is town because a 3p LYLO involving an insomnia who turns out to be town is miserable to resolve.

Spoiler:

It will work out because insomnia is not town, but embedded in the premise behind the plan is that he is town.

Right. The JK has to take one person out of the lynchpool. That person must vote with the mechanically locked town against the 3rd.

Emps is mech town. If he dies, insomnia is mech town. All Cyrus has to do is recognize the mechanics and vote elsewhere at lylo.