Large Normal 221 - Endgame

[Kublai Khan]

Gollum is nero

What did you think of my analysis and DV/LuckyOtter as the choices?

@Nero Cain - Same question

[Gollum]

VOTE: lucky otter

Khan can just shoot dead tonight if the game isn't over

[Kublai Khan]

VOTE: lucky otter

Khan can just shoot dead tonight if the game isn't over

Eh.. flip it. If DeasVail doesn't flip scum, I'll shoot LuckyOtter.

[Gollum]

*shrugz*


VOTE: deas

[DeasVail]

Oh?

Anyway, I've looked over some things again and I feel like everything points to

VOTE: LuckyOtter?

Okay, you've got nothing as a defense. Got it.

I don't even know what I'm defending against tbh

[Kublai Khan]

Oh?

Anyway, I've looked over some things again and I feel like everything points to

VOTE: LuckyOtter?

Okay, you've got nothing as a defense. Got it.

I don't even know what I'm defending against tbh

Okay. Well, I guess you have until your lynch to figure it out.

[Kirari Momobami]

VOTE: Nero Cain this has won me a game before so it's worth a shot

but you were scum so you are claiming scum?

Lol this is a really funny post given the talk about 'signaling' on the part of the traitor

Ice cream goddess there's no way hws tries to "signal" he's scum to nero in a way only he would get right?

[Not Known 15]

Vote Count 5.2

BodhiSmith13

DeasVail(3)Kublai Khan,ofrhz,Nero Cain,

Not Voting(2)Kirari Momobami,LuckyOtter,

LuckyOtter(2)DeasVail,Vorkuta,

Kirari Momobami(0)

ofrhz(0)

Vorkuta(0)

Nero Cain

Gollum

(0)

Kublai Khan(0)

No Lynch(0)

With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch.

Day 5 ends in (expired on 2019-07-26 20:29:00).

[LuckyOtter]

Intent on DV. If that's green my vote tomorrow would be on Vork.

[Kirari Momobami]

VOTE: Nero Cain this has won me a game before so it's worth a shot

but you were scum so you are claiming scum?

Lol this is a really funny post given the talk about 'signaling' on the part of the traitor

Ice cream goddess there's no way hws tries to "signal" he's scum to nero in a way only he would get right?

This is just tinfoil otter?

[LuckyOtter]

But the signaling would just come from hws, and I wouldn't expect Nero to respond to it. If this was the signal I don't think Nero would be all 'are you signaling me, buddy? Nudge nudge wink wink'

That said I haven't come up with any better ideas of where there might be any signaling.

[LuckyOtter]

LuckyOtter - HeWhoSwims/nomnomnom calling him town or lynchbait all game.

Nero Cain - "Random" First vote of HeWhoSwims. nomnomnom never gave a read.

ofrhz - nomnomnom was partial to ofrhz lynch over LuckyOtter lynch.

Vorkuta - Barely mentions Vorkuta.

BodhiSmith13-DeasVail - nomnomnom calls DeasVail town for hesitating on the RedFlavor lynch.

Kirari Momobami - Went from town read to scummy in a sort of self-preservation fashion.

I think Kirari Momobami and ofrhz are off the table for today.

I think a traitor generally tries to signal the groupscum not to kill them, and tries to protect them by calling them town.

So.. I think LuckyOtter is the strongest contender for lynch and failing that, DeasVail for vig-shot. I would strongly reccomend Nero Cain for lynch following that.

To be fair I had the same thought about how signaling would work. My only defense is that nom clearly didn't use that strategy toward Red. And I was nom's first straight up 'townread' only after you, btw, so it's not like nom came in with the strategy of signaling just one of the scum by townreading them right off the bat, unless it's you somehow. I'm just thinking there was no signaling and nom was working associatives very carefully. So nom avoiding talking about Vork, for example, doesn't dissuade me from thinking he's scum.

[LuckyOtter]

@nomnom what do you think of vork and red?

Red is odd sounding. Not even because he's not a native speaker, just odd posts.
I could see myself voting there today.

Vork? Eeeeh. No idea.

For example. Hedging on both

[LuckyOtter]

I also have a mental note on you that you don't seem to stand out as much in this game than the others I've seen of you but different parameters and all that.

This game is a bit different and it's a bit hard to place myself here.

If we want more tinfoil signaling theories I guess this from nom directed at nero

might

be something, but he's still low on my list

[Kirari Momobami]

But the signaling would just come from hws, and I wouldn't expect Nero to respond to it. If this was the signal I don't think Nero would be all 'are you signaling me, buddy? Nudge nudge wink wink'

That said I haven't come up with any better ideas of where there might be any signaling.

I mean, HWS would have known scum were informed of a traitor, and then he made no response to Nero's comment here did he? I also think 532 is super awkward lol

I'm not sure Nero is scum, I think his exchange with Montosh early irt Creature is more likely to come from town, but his activity dropping off a cliff these last two days makes me want to be really sure if he's town, and HWS's weird attitude toward the slot is making me second guess just a little bit. His votes also slightly fit the town pattern more than the scum pattern of the game.

Also thinking about Alch's towncase argument on LO irt to LO-->RF not being S/S, and his thought that LO/DV could plausibly be T/T. Just thinking here.

You townread Nero right? Can you expand on what makes you feel confident on Nero town?

[Kirari Momobami]

I mostly just want to have a clear towncase on Nero independently based on his own play so that I can confidently ignore whatever noise HWS spewed out.

[Kublai Khan]

To be fair I had the same thought about how signaling would work. My only defense is that nom clearly didn't use that strategy toward Red. And I was nom's first straight up 'townread' only after you, btw, so it's not like nom came in with the strategy of signaling just one of the scum by townreading them right off the bat, unless it's you somehow. I'm just thinking there was no signaling and nom was working associatives very carefully. So nom avoiding talking about Vork, for example, doesn't dissuade me from thinking he's scum.

I get what you're saying, but realistically you were at L-1 and nomnomnom absolutely would not hammer. She could have easily justified placing the hammering vote, but didn't.

If you were town, I don't really understand why she'd delay a hammering vote on a townie for so long and risk a last minute quick wagon on her actual partner.

If you were me, would you allow LuckyOtter to make it to LYLO?

[LuckyOtter]

I mostly just want to have a clear towncase on Nero independently based on his own play so that I can confidently ignore whatever noise HWS spewed out.

Yeah I need to stop avoiding rereading Nero.

- I kinda agreed with him on Montosh early on and I think he mostly fell off my radar after that. So, mwomp mwomp.

- One of the main reasons I haven't been looking at him as scum later is because he was the 5th vote on the Creature flashwagon. I guess it didn't end up putting him in that much danger, especially seeing that Red was on it as well, but if Creature is the sort of player that doesn't respond well to pressure, this isn't a good scumbuddy move. Vork is on here, too, but Nero keeps calling for a creature lynch after that.

- If scum!Nero actually believes that Niko is claiming traitor here, I don't think he wouldn't have voted him (which he did, and kept calling Niko out for SK speculation):

I mean, it's not like I was fussing at him for a lack of scum reads. But I do think his setup spec that we didn't have 4 scum is fake dumbtelling or legit TMI but he's either real claiming SK or lulz claiming SK.

- Let's say HWS and Nom were signaling Nero. He later presses against nom, again for setup spec. I guess it's not an impossible strategy given that he would have been bussing Creature and Red, but then to push nom seems a bit dangerous. That said, he never really pushed nom that hard, and actually criticized Kirari for voting there instead of me:

the other is?

Otter is still toward the bottom of my PoE

isn't there a wagon there today? Why not join that instead of push Nom with 3 days left?

- If DV has been obsessing over me all game, Nero has done the same with Montosh, but his fizzling out post-Montosh lynch feels just a bit more like town having the wind taken out of his sails than scum having a singular strategy of obsessing over 1 person and then not knowing what to do after getting that person lynched.

So I really don't know. He's still not my top pick but I'm not going to say he's town with any amount of confidence.

[LuckyOtter]

To be fair I had the same thought about how signaling would work. My only defense is that nom clearly didn't use that strategy toward Red. And I was nom's first straight up 'townread' only after you, btw, so it's not like nom came in with the strategy of signaling just one of the scum by townreading them right off the bat, unless it's you somehow. I'm just thinking there was no signaling and nom was working associatives very carefully. So nom avoiding talking about Vork, for example, doesn't dissuade me from thinking he's scum.

I get what you're saying, but realistically you were at L-1 and nomnomnom absolutely would not hammer. She could have easily justified placing the hammering vote, but didn't.

If you were town, I don't really understand why she'd delay a hammering vote on a townie for so long and risk a last minute quick wagon on her actual partner.

If you were me, would you allow LuckyOtter to make it to LYLO?

I wouldn't really advise anyone to take me to lylo, lol. But yeah I get what you mean. And nom almost got themselves lynched over their gambit but I think the goal was to pocket me and take me to lylo, or try to look really good after my green flip, or make me look bad after their flip. Not going to hold it against you for taking me out because I'd probably do the same. It's not really in my nature to go down without at least a little fight. But I realize I'm a liability at this point.

[LuckyOtter]

Just promise to remember I had a few good reads this game and wasn't a total fuckup, lol

[Kirari Momobami]

Both RedFlavor and Vorkuta have been early on the Creature wagon and not on Niko, so I don't think they're scum with Creature.

If there's scum on the Creature wagon, wouldn't they be more likely to be earlier on it? Red and vork were votes 2 and 3, not putting creature in any real danger. The second wave was Kop(Niko), Nero, Roster, Jesus. I just don't see scum doing that when Creature is not even obviously the lynch.

Now, Roster immediately unvotes, as does Red after Alchemist joins. So I'm still good with Red as scum here. Roster is unclear. I'm good with Alchemist and Nero as town, and leaning town on Jesus.

This was the basis of Alch's towncase on Otter, I remember not actually liking this post at the time but I can't remember why I didn't like it anymore lol

[DeasVail]

Just promise to remember I had a few good reads this game and wasn't a total fuckup, lol

This seems a weird thing to say if you think I’m scum.

[DeasVail]

From your perspective as town, you can hammer me and the game is more likely than not over?

[DeasVail]

I have accepted my fate today, but please don’t let Otter survive the night

[Kublai Khan]

Well, both DeasVail and LuckyOtter are amenable to their fates. Which gives me pause, because that's pretty townie. But I think we should go through with it.

If they both turn town and I'm likely dead as well. I think Nero Cain and Vorkuta are the next tier of suspects.