Micro 880: A Normal Game - Game Over!
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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and if kop is town mailman why dont they block kop and kill tlIn post 1297, skitter30 wrote:i think scum with an rb block tl probably and kill {whoever else}
this scenario town has zero confirmed anything
there is an obvious answer here-
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OkaPoka
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OkaPoka Survivor
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like you cant be serious
what scum would choose to decide meh
I dont feel like killing the town investigative who hard suspects me and will probably vote me
nah
im going to kill someone else and not come up with a plan to put doubt into the validity of their claim so they can sit on me all day as i drown-
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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Lich:
If I kill you, nobody blinks an eye because you are a claimed Traffic Analyst (aka you can find scum with some error but you know who communicates). Its like killing a cop claim, everyone will see that kill and be like "ok yeah that makes sense!"
And of course the question is, why aren't you dead?
Turns out scum have some from of roleblocking.
So therefore scum can mitigate the nightplay aspect of your play, however that still leaves an issue for scum being that you are unrestricted in dayplay. Then we mass claim and nobody claims anything strong thus making you an essential IC. Basically me pushing for a massclaim and nobody else claiming something makes you an IC. Leaving you even stronger dayplay wise right? The only way I could restrict your dayplay by not killing you is setting up a strategy that would probably be me or my scumbuddy fakeclaiming a role to make sure there isn't room for the either of us to exist. But since I pushed for the massclaim and nobody went for a claim, we know for a fact that I did not set up any counterplay to your dayplay potential thus leaving you as an unrestricted IC-lite. And since nobody went for a claim, we know for a fact that scum didn't have something planned to restrict your dayplay either or were to scared to do so for whatever reasons. This means they were okay with leaving an IC-lite on the table.
Okay so the question we have to ask ourselves is why would scum be okay with leaving an IC-lite on the table. What gain or push to wincondition does giving town an IC have? Because scum could've killed you and left us with an all VT + mailman claim tomorrow and since they have a roleblocking ability of sorts we play 5v2 mountainous essentially (which is very scumsided). But they chose not to, meaning that they felt that they would win more with your being IC-alive rather than CFJ being unknown alignment alive.
And where does that leave us?
Coming out of day 1 I was the biggest wagon twice. We bounced around a few times, landed on you, skitter, and finally lynching dunn. However the thing is, dunn is dead, you are now an IC. Therefore the biggest targets of yesterday to today are me and skitter by VCA. But then we need to take into consideration another thing, you townread the absolute fuck out of skitter and you are IC-lite. You and skitter scumread the absolute fuck out me and you are IC-lite. I think its pretty obvious that I've been setup to be the designated lynch today and force us into 3v2 lylo tomorrow. This game in its current state with an IC scumreading me benefits whoever would want me dead, and of course scum me does not want me dead. This may also hurt skitter so skitter might actually be town here, but we'll see. However its kind of important to note that a dead CFJ means that there won't be the question of why isn't skitter dead at lylo because ML me and nk you we have 3v2 lylo and killing you is still open as the "mechanical low info play" so town doesn't have the paranoia.
pedit: popcorning is over Lich, everyone else claimed VT. Kop claimed mailman to CFJ. Also hope that clears up my thoughts a bit.-
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OkaPoka Survivor
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Here's what I think are some possible scenarios.
1) The shortsighted theory:
Scum did not think this through being that town's best play would be a massclaim today so they hoped that today would be prime me vs you, TvT. They roleblocked you probably thinking you would hit me, somebody would suggest I'm mafia ascetic maybe but the point is there would be some form of doubt in your claim and we would go off on each other. But when massclaim, the correct choice, came they had no choice, they don't want to be outed yet because that's a high risk play.
2) 3v2 Lylo play.
In this scenario they know that you are going to become IC-lite and feel that you being alive would be there best bet because you would push me first and they could have a reasonable shot at lynching me forcing us into lylo tomorrow after you are nk. We are then left with a lylo of Sleepless,nsg,skitter,firebringer,kop. There are some slots in there that if town, its over.
3) CFJ is a magician
This scenario ignores you completely. Scum have a roleblocker and can neutralize you. They kill CFJ because CFJ is the biggest threat as a town leading figure to how scumteam wants to play it out. CFJ represents slow paced, analysis, step-by-step play and will call out anyone without derptunneling. They probably feel that CFJ might just be able to flip on them at any moment and lead town through a lylo situation. RN deepwolves will not be paranoia'd in the sense of "why aren't they dead yet" because you are the next NK. Then it enters scenario 2 of 3v2 lylo because they don't care, they aren't the lynch today.-
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OkaPoka Survivor
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Here are some other stuff we know.
I've said repeatedly that skitter and temp lich are antialigned, skitter had decent backing yesterday in a pool of OkaPoka 1138, Firebringer111 279 979, Kop 860 and if you count Sleepless Assassin's post about not liking skitter 658 she seems like prime lynch candidate. CFJ has also said repeatedly and implied of his distaste for a skitter lynch removing one of skitter's possible allies. However there is the thing of killing Lich would remove skitter's strongest ally, so perhaps its not as clear cut as it is. However a Firebringer kill would be much preferable for skitter to endgame this, as it would leave skitter's alliance of skitter,cfj,lich up against a possible me,sleepless,kop and it doesn't take a genius to realize the latter three are destined to fail. There is some backing to a skitter scum theory being that keeping Lich alive rather than CFJ would probably extend her lifetime by one phase at the least because of the strength of Lich's TR.
But thinking along those lines, if scum thought ahead and saw that Lich was not going to be lynched, they might've sensed another incoming conflict, me vs skitter. I "should" have the larger alliance to tackle skitter and get her lynched. Leaving us with a lylo of me,nsg,firebringer,sleepless,kop. Which benefits Firebringer and Sleepless the most in the sense that I'll predictably go after nsg/kop most of the time as I have seemed to been pocketed by those two.
And well I guess maybe because I townread Firebringer. But sleepless could hypothetically use me as a proxy to get him into LyLo which isn't the worst plan because I have been a rabid dog this game and sleepless has been voting with me, even posturing a bit.
I do wonder why Kop even had to post a thought about debating whether to give mail to Lich/CFJ, it was pretty clear Lich was supposed to be the NK. It almost feels ~ingenuine. I also don't know why he thought getting Dunn to claim would be terribad given that a Traffic Analyst claimed already and would make the setup ridiculously unbalanced if a similar tier power was claimed. What I do think is possible is that killing CFJ might be the best play to make Kop's claim more reasonable in the scenario that he cannot give mail. Of course claiming mailman in a Traffic Analyst game is probably truth, but what if he cannot multitask and scum have no multitaskers with a roleblocker? In this scenario if they kill Lich with roleblocker and Kop gives mail, Kop is instantly incriminated if the roleblocker ever flips and if Kop kills and roleblocker dicks off, then nobody will have mail and he would have to say "oh I was probably roleblocked then" creating suspicion in his claim. This scenario, its reasonable that Kop would mail CFJ and its also reasonable that scum kill CFJ if they have a roleblocker, but I think its slightly suboptimal that they didn't just kill Lich and block Kop for maximum paranoia and if I can think of that like within minutes, then scum would have too. Most likely.-
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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SURE!In post 1356, northsidegal wrote:i'm not sure i'm seeing the crux of your point here? are you saying you would be scumreading skitter as scum because you could just get her lynched?-
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OkaPoka Survivor
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NSG THIS IS ALL THINGS THAT HAPPENED IN THE PAST LIKE 20 MINUTESIn post 1364, northsidegal wrote:okay well i was about to say that i was townreaidng oka because in general i tend to townread when people do research like that and also because i think most of his play this day has been trying to engage skitter regarding her scumread on him which i think is a pretty good towntell even for good scum players
and all of that remains true, but i kind of dislike those two posts
WHAT ABOUT GAME HISTORY THINGS THAT HAPPENED D1-
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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*ABOUT ME TO BE CLEAR BECAUSE YOU ARE GOING TO SAY SORRY I DONT UNDERSTANDIn post 1374, OkaPoka wrote:IM NOT SAYING ITS IRRELEVANT IM SAYING YOU ARE IGNORING EVERYTHING EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE-
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I CANT STOP THIS FEELINGIn post 1371, skitter30 wrote:i'm talking about your original scumread on tl feeling fake
DEEP INSIDE OF ME-
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OkaPoka Survivor
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OkaPoka Survivor
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THIS IS PROBLEM LET US RESOLVE THIS PROBLEM PLEASE ASSUME IM TOWN SO YOUR SCUMREADS ARENT OKA PARTNERIn post 1380, skitter30 wrote:maybe i'm tunneled idk
i acknowledge it could be a possibility
i still think ur day1 interactions with tl were awful
i also don't know where else scum is so-
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OkaPoka Survivor
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I DONT THINK IT WAS A TOWNSLIP
IT SOUNDS LIKE HE LOOKED UP THE ROLE ON THE WIKI AND DECIDED TO ROLL WITH IT
MAYBE IT WAS A TOWNSLIP BUT I THINK ITS JUST SUCH A NICHE ROLE THAT IT WAS ??? AND SO HE LOOKED IT UP
SKITTER I THINK IF I WERE SCUM I WOULD TRY AND BE MORE SUBTLE ABOUT TRYING TO GET YOU TO TOWNREAD ME INSTEAD OF DIRECTLY TALKING TO YOU IN ALL CAPS TO TOWNREAD ME-
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OkaPoka Survivor
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