Pokémon Fusion U-Pick [Game Over]

[Skygazer]

VC 3.03

itlepip (4): Menalque, Gamma Emerald, Dr Easy Bake, Jibril
Menalque (4): Flavor Leaf, RCEnigma, Alchemist21, Ausuka
Dr Easy Bake (2): itlepip, Something_Smart

Not Voting (3): Pink Ball, Chemist1422, MariaR

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to reach a lynch. Day 3 ends in (expired on 2019-08-14 18:15:00).

[Pink Ball]

SS, you said that I'm trying to antagonize itlepip, but as I see it, you're trying to antagonize me right now

[Something_Smart]

Okay yeah maybe that was a bit out of line but like.

What's your evidence for those VCA claims?

[Flavor Leaf]

You might even say he’s....hatcheting you

[Pink Ball]

Okay yeah maybe that was a bit out of line but like.

What's your evidence for those VCA claims?

My reads and common sense. My reads have been on point since I got scum lynched, common sense dictates that not all three remaining scum bussed Avengers 'cause that would be idiotic and thinking that no partner voted Avengers (aka three outside Avengers' wagon) would leave us with a 50% chance of lynching scum if we randomly lynch outside Avengers' wagon and that's too good to be true. I'm just going for the most realistic scenario combined with my own reads.

[Menalque]

Wheres everything that I’ve done that’s been less town!indicative since then?

Actually talk me through it

Bc at the moment I think I’m getting scumread for what, having been taken in by a very good scum player? Oh no, I must be scum too, clearly

So the shared read on Deb being town when he is at best an ambiguous slot. Calling him mislynch bait instead of a question mark is kind of ? Possible whiteknighting. I think your reads are really stagnant as you've been bouncing between FL, Maria, itle sorta, but your approach on that slot is kind of weird. Like you guys bumped heads and you immediately turned around for his input on SS while you were voting him. The redirect from Avengers Lynch, the attempted redirect from Avengers lynch day 2. If they flipped goon I think there is less of an argument to make there but rolecop makes it more likely it's a partner making a save.

I think there’s been a mislynch bait player very game I’ve played on site so far. Like, my first ever it was voted who I pushed hard and wrongly for a while. Next game it was osetr who I pushed as scum for a win. My mini normal it was basically cinn who I hard defended because I thought he was town (correctly). So in each case there was someone easy for scum to push, one time myself making the error, who was actually town. I’m trying to avoid doing that, and in my experience so far those players have generally been town. In this case, it was deb, now the fact he’s still alive is ringing some alarm bells, but I think my reading him as town who’s just mislynch bait makes perfect sense in light of the above.

FL is only a recent thing, and only because of the way he’s been on me. I thought he was town for ages, and I can still see it, but I respect him enough as a player to think he prob doesn’t tunnel me this hard for a mislynch as town. I know he’s probably gonna call that a pocket attempt but if I flip today, I mean that FL. I’m legit disappointed in you as a player if you mislynch me today and you end up being town postgame.

I still think maria could be and quite possibly is scum lol. Itle I’m not sure about. I thought he was scummy initially, but also he pushed the game forward at a time when it seemed stagnant which I thought was towny. But I’m kinda doubting my reads atm because of avengers flipping scum (I was legit getting ready for an “I told you so post” as I saw the quick wagon going in my read through when I woke up the day she was lynched, only to see the flip). So I’m on him now because I’m still absolutely sold on PB!town and PB has had good reads so far this game. But given that i wasn’t totally sure while I was in that spat, why would I not want his feedback for the case where I got his lynch through and it ended up being a mislynch?

Avengers — skitter fooled me. I’m sure that’s happened to better players than me on more than one occasion based on that fancy ribbon she has next to her avi. I’m not gonna beat myself up about being wrong there, and yeah it’s bad luck that she was the rolecop and that makes me look worse, but what you gonna do.

At least we got a rolecop from it, but if it now means that you mislynch me then that makes the trade off a whole lot worse because we’re losig a townie due to bad luck associationals

[Menalque]

What is hatcheting?

[RCEnigma]

FL will be glad you asked.

[Menalque]

Wow so helpful thank

[Something_Smart]

I don't really think that triple-bus or zero-bus scenarios happen that much less frequently than probability says they would if the voters on a wagon were random.

Also, your reads can change those probabilities. Supposing (as an extreme example) you had a hard townread on everyone off-wagon aside from pip. It doesn't mean that pip is guaranteed to be scum; it means that your initial assumption that triple-bus was very unlikely needs to be reevaluated because it's a hell of a lot more likely now.

The reason I object to a lot of VCA is that people come up with prior probabilities for unlikely events like all three scum being on the wagon, but they never update their priors with new information-- because if they did, it would invalidate their argument which was barely (if at all) valid to begin with.

[RCEnigma]

mislynch bait Deb being scum

For your viewing pleasure.

There is nothing that rules him out as scum.

[itlepip]

PB I mean I personally think its better for scum to try to townbloc with townies than hard bus each other because even a 2v8 where scum is leading town is hard for scum with a bunch of pr results. As scum here I am doing whatever I can to survive, then probably claiming invest either today or tomorrow to try to either sneak away with 2 MLs or get a bunch of MLs.

Speaking of which I'm really shocked we didn't see a doc kill in the night. If they are both real scum almost certainly shoot there unless they have a bunch of Strongmen or something, and if they aren't if town doesn't lynch there (which I don't think we should ftr) they probably have to tomorrow night anyways since a doc save is a really big deal. Alchemist is obviously the better claim (although the I got roleblocked is a pretty neat play), so the reasonable solution is that MariaR is also caught scum (who we shouldn't lynch yet but still). That furthers my theory that scum need to force out MLs, even if they look bad otherwise they just don't have enough numbers.

[itlepip]

Also I agree that single votecount VCA is pretty useless in these sorts of games. That said it isn't useless, and when combined with vote progression stuff I think there are some good results there.

[Flavor Leaf]

What is hatcheting?

Well, you know the common chainsaw attack? This is when Player A tunnels scum Player B, and Scum Player C tunnels Player A to Attack the player attacking their partner. This necessitates pushing as scum.

This become common occurrence years ago, and was basically one of the go to scum plays on site. This being said, people needed to stop chainsawing, so they transitioned over to new plays. Now, these plays have been done prior to chainsawing not being as common, but the popularity and lack of chainsawing lately made it so they are much more prominent and “disclosed”.

Hatcheting is when Scum player C continuously discredits Player A to protect Scum Player B thus making their push worthless. You chop away at their case, and not let their tree fall down before fully growing.

Seducing is when Scum Player C tries to befriend Player A to get them to move away from their partner. This is becoming more common now that Hatcheting is catching people. I have a harder time catching this.

Slingshotting is when Town Player D realizes Player A is town, and credits them enough to let them fly and gain momentum.

[RCEnigma]

We need some slingshotting in this townblock.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Menalque - I have a tendency to tunnel at least once into a mislynch every town game of mine.

[Menalque]

I think you need to realise that I’ve been bleeding town since the start of today and get off me

I am not good enough as scum to make the posts I’ve made today

[Flavor Leaf]

I just rocked Penguin’s socks off in a recent one and we had one of the biggest 1v1 TvT tunnels I’ve seen in a while.

I got mislynched Day 6 in 5p lylo.

[Flavor Leaf]

@RCE - should we just kill itlepip?

[Menalque]

@Menalque - I have a tendency to tunnel at least once into a mislynch every town game of mine.

Fine but if you are town don’t make it me

Look back at all the early reasons you were townreading me and realise that you’ve just shaken yourself off them because of paranoia

[Gamma Emerald]

mislynch bait Deb being scum

For your viewing pleasure.

There is nothing that rules him out as scum.

I think you're a bit confused, scum don't get mislynched.

[Something_Smart]

He means low hanging fruit I presume.

[RCEnigma]

He means low hanging fruit I presume.

This. I'm implying he has the same playstyle as scum so it doesn't excuse the townread on him here.

[Alchemist21]

@Pink, would you be willing to lynch DEB today?

[RCEnigma]

@RCE - should we just kill itlepip?

That's probably where it's heading but I fear that if I or yourself die tonight and itle flips town it could disrupt the townblock. I think the doc wifom would mess with the town despite Ausuka being town and Menalque might be off the hook in the meantime.