Mini Normal 2085: Colors (Game Over)
- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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- Ircher
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- Ircher
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- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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N1:
Sakura doctors Persivul.
Omochao jails Chemist.
??? kills ??? -> Failed!
N2:
Sakura doctors Chemist.
nomnomnom sends Chemist fruit.
Omochao jails Chemist.
pisskop investigates Ircher --> Innocent.
??? kills ??? -> Failed!
N3:
Sakura protects Omochao.
Omochao does nothing.
??? kills ??? -> Failed!
N4:
Sakura protects ???.
Omochao jails ???.
??? kills Sakura.- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Logically, this implies Sakura was the kill target nights 2 and 3. It also implies that Omochao is town.
So really, night 1 is the big question mark --> Was Persi saved? Was Chemist saved? Was Chemist blocked?- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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EBWOPIn post 3370, Ircher wrote:Logically, this implies Sakura was the kill target night 2, and Omochao was the kill target night 3. It also implies that Omochao is town.
So really, night 1 is the big question mark --> Was Persi saved? Was Chemist saved? Was Chemist blocked?- Ircher
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The problem with a no kill gambit night 3 is that scum gave us an extra mislynch by doing so. Furthermore, scum!Omochao implies they also purposely no killed night 2 as well. It's just completely unreasonable.In post 3373, Flavor Leaf wrote:There are some plays scum could have thrown in there to create that gamestate, though, but really, if Omochao is scum, I’m ready to just let him win with it because risk is too high.
Chemist is scum with either Persivul or Okapoka, and I’m leaning Persivul.
Chemist/Persivul team.- Ircher
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- Ircher
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....If we lynch pisskop today and he flips town, I become IC, but then we have {Flavor Leaf, OkaPoka, Chemist, Persival} that has two scum in it for LyLo.
If we lynch pisskop today and he flips scum, we buy a mislynch, but that will likely lead to me being lynched just because of the WIFOM argument. Let's suppose I'm lynched immediately afterward and flip town as I will. Then that leaves us with {Flavor Leaf, OkaPoka, Chemist, Persivul} with one scum in it. Town no lynches and one of the four is off. (Likely OkaPoka imo.) This particular LyLo does not look very attractive.
Let's suppose we don't mislynch me despite a pisskop flip. Then we get two lynches in {Flavor Leaf, OkaPoka, Chemist, and Persivul} leaving us no better off than in the case when pisskop was town. I would never get killed in that circumstance, so I would always make it to 3p lylo.- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Suppose we lynch Flavor Leaf today, and he flips green. Omochao gets shot and killed.
We're left with {Chemist, Persivul, OkaPoka, pisskop, Ircher} in 5p LyLo. 2 of us are scum. From my pov, {Chemist, Persivul, OkaPoka, pisskop} contain both scum. Let's say we lynch Chemist and he flips scum.
Either a) I'm killed and 3p lylo becomes {Persivul, OkaPoka, pisskop} OR OkaPoka is killed (OkaPoka is towniest imo among the others) and 3p lylo becomes {Ircher, pisskop, Persivul}.- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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- Ircher
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Oh, I don't know if it helps, but nomnomnom could not have performed the kill night 2. (If nomnomnom did perform the kill, then Chemist would be lying about receiving fruit.)
Now, does Town Informed 1-Shot Babysitter + Town Doctor + Town Jailkeeper + Town N2 Cop + 5 VTs versus Mafia Goon + Mafia Goon + Mafia N2 Fruit Vendor seem balanced?
Or does Town Informed 1-Shot Babysitter + Town Doctor + Town Jailkeeper + 6 VTs versus Mafia Goon + Mafia Informed (There are no cops in this setup.) + Mafia N2 Fruit Vendor seem more likely?- Ircher
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No, regardless of who we lynch, Omochao is always killed tonight. Unless Omochao is scum, but like I said, the odds are not in favor of such. (And if he tries to no kill gambit, we force him to kill.)In post 3383, OkaPoka wrote:
Okay but if piss flips scum, we can leash omo to someone and have a pseudo clear right? Then suddenly lylo looks much more attractive.In post 3379, Ircher wrote:....If we lynch pisskop today and he flips town, I become IC, but then we have {Flavor Leaf, OkaPoka, Chemist, Persival} that has two scum in it for LyLo.
If we lynch pisskop today and he flips scum, we buy a mislynch, but that will likely lead to me being lynched just because of the WIFOM argument. Let's suppose I'm lynched immediately afterward and flip town as I will. Then that leaves us with {Flavor Leaf, OkaPoka, Chemist, Persivul} with one scum in it. Town no lynches and one of the four is off. (Likely OkaPoka imo.) This particular LyLo does not look very attractive.
Let's suppose we don't mislynch me despite a pisskop flip. Then we get two lynches in {Flavor Leaf, OkaPoka, Chemist, and Persivul} leaving us no better off than in the case when pisskop was town. I would never get killed in that circumstance, so I would always make it to 3p lylo.- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Also, if we do go the route of lynching pisskop, town must decide on a scum!pisskop flip whether to lynch me or trust me.
Regardless of what happens, I should never make it to 3p lylo because either town immediately lynches me after scum!pisskop, or scum is forced to kill me because I will never be lynched.- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Eh, it doesn't necessarily have to be, but claiming cop like pisskop did does take some setup knowledge which wasn't in public view at the time.In post 3388, OkaPoka wrote:Why would mafia informed be a thing in setup 2?
pedit: just one thing to consider, I'm leaning towards voting Chemist, but we still need to take into account all reasonable possibilities.- Ircher
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- Ircher
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N1:
Sakura doctors Persivul.
Omochao jails Chemist.
??? kills ??? -> Failed!
N2:
Sakura doctors Chemist.
nomnomnom sends Chemist fruit.
Omochao jails Sakura.
pisskop investigates Ircher --> Innocent.
??? kills ??? -> Failed!
N3:
Sakura protects Omochao.
Omochao does nothing.
??? kills ??? -> Failed!
N4:
Sakura protects ???.
Omochao jails Flavor Leaf.
??? kills Sakura.- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
- Ircher
- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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I agree that you being jailed helps your case.In post 3408, Flavor Leaf wrote:I think the jail actually helps clear me moreso than the opposite.
Means 100% I didn’t make a kill.
If I’m not dying today, i think I’m ready to end. Chemist/Persivul is my solve, and i still lean town on PK.
If there’s a deep wolf, it’s Omochao, but i think he’s just probably town.
Though I'd imagine scum!you wouldn't risk the kill w/ the suspicion you are under from the nomnomnom flip (and Penguin flip as well).
Let me know when you are ready for the day to end. I still want Omo to give jail targets preemptively so we can get clears if Chemist flips scum (which seems likely).- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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- Ircher
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- Ircher
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- Ircher
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- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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N1:
Sakura doctors Persivul.
Omochao jails Chemist.
??? kills ??? -> Failed!
N2:
Sakura doctors Chemist.
nomnomnom sends Chemist fruit.
Omochao jails Sakura.
pisskop investigates Ircher --> Innocent.
??? kills ??? -> Failed!
N3:
Sakura protects Omochao.
Omochao does nothing.
??? kills ??? -> Failed!
N4:
Sakura protects ???.
Omochao jails Flavor Leaf.
??? kills Sakura.
N5:
Omochao jails ???.
??? kills Omochao.
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Confirmed so far:
1x Town Jailkeeper
1x Town Doctor
1x Town 1-Shot Babysitter
3x Vanilla Townie
vs.
Mafia N2 Fruit Vendor
Uncleared Claims:
pisskop --> Town N2 Cop- Ircher
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Yeah, that's a good point.In post 3464, pisskop wrote:thats pretty fucking stupid considering how hard he went after me. Even if he did drop off.
pisskop/OkaPoka doesn't make a lot of sense. OkaPoka would have had no reason to do what he did then.
pedit: town n2 cop is a viable fakeclaim. Do y'all think this setup (without pisskop's claim) would be balanced IF it had 13p?- Ircher
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- Ircher
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- Ircher
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- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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As I skim back over Persivul's ISO, this post sticks out. In particular, why was Persivul interested in the length of time it took to catch scum!Oka in Liars and Millers?In post 147, Persivul wrote:In post 122, Ircher wrote:Ah, but are you confirmable?
If the answer is no, please don't be useless like you were in the micro.
How long did it take to catch him?In post 123, Ircher wrote:That's how we caught scum!you.
Let's suppose Flavor is right and the team is Oka/Persi. Do you think scum!Persi made this comment to try to guage when it may be the best time to bus OkaPoka?
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Let's suppose scum did shoot Chemist.In post 673, Persivul wrote:
He barely posted and was null to me. How was Chemist consensus town?In post 632, Niko wrote:Oh, and if i had to guess, the protective protected chemist, what means that he is prob town.
I don't think there was another consensus town read besides him, and i'm skeptical of believing that it was just a coincidence.What do y'all think about this comment by Persivul?
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I probably shouldn't read into this based on how Persivul defended it, but this feels like scum angry because I basically made it impossible for them to lolhammer. This is ofc dependent on Persi being scum, but I think it's a fair take.In post 1584, Persivul wrote:FUCK YOU. YOU DON'T KNOW ME VERY WELL IF YOU THINK I RESPOND WELL TO COMMANDS.
---This just comes up out of the blue. I'm not sure what to make of it.
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Something to note for future reference.In post 2855, Persivul wrote:3.5 days to go, 3 weak wagons.
pisskop:
- kudos to oka for finding the schadd link about not using cops anymore
- more importantly, just before oka posted that link, piss was playing theI don't really care about this gamebit. Just after the link, piss started taking the game much more seriously. Looks like caught scum who feels a need to step up his game
- I liked his initial claim. I didn't like the piecemeal nature of it though, i.e. later adding the N2 modifier. If I'm N2 cop, I'm coming out and giving my full role and result at the beginning of D3, or keeping it quiet in order to make some pushes to look for associatives. Either way, once I claim cop, I'm including the modifier. I don't see town reason not too. The addition of the modifier could have been scum thinkingcrap, I need an excuse not to create more conftowns
- aside from his claim, his play is overall null to me, and an old rule of thumb is that if by D3 you have a hard null on a slot, they're scum.
BUT, there are some serious considerations in the other direction
- I need to go back and check the gamestate, but I don't recall piss being under pressure when he made the claim, so what's his scum motivation for doing so? Assuming piss/ircher aren't S/S making a bold gambit, an inno result creates a conftown, and as noted that sucks for scum. The only scum motivation I see is if he didn't want to spend time on this game (which seems to be true), and thought the claim would let him coast the rest of the game. But that's not a real strong motivation for someone not under pressure.
- One more point below
nomnom
- TBH I have difficulty spotting very high post count scum. But in this case, I think the push on mechanics and lynching in the PRs, plus the sudden reversal from that position, is very likely to be scum
- her wagon stalled at 3. This seems to me like scum think they're in a good position and don't want to bus
- piss and ircher are on the wagon with me. I find it highly unlikely that scum!piss gave a false inno on scum!ircher, and they're both on the same wagon back to back. This makes it highly likely that ircher is town, and is a plus to the town!piss case.
penguin
- I always have difficulty reading PP on content. See the point above about hard nulls on D3.
- He was on the razh mislynch D1. He's not on the final Fire Assassin mislynch D2, but that's becuase he unvoted to avoid a lolhammer, and I hammered before he got the chance.
- For me he would be a compromise lynch relative to nomnom. In general compromise lynches on D3 are bad for town, but: we have some leeway due to the lack of NKs, and I know I wouldn't want to be in lylo with him.
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If Persi is scum, this actually suggests mafia may have an informed role.In post 3413, Persivul wrote:
How did you even come up with Mafia Informed?In post 3382, Ircher wrote:Oh, I don't know if it helps, but nomnomnom could not have performed the kill night 2. (If nomnomnom did perform the kill, then Chemist would be lying about receiving fruit.)
Now, does Town Informed 1-Shot Babysitter + Town Doctor + Town Jailkeeper + Town N2 Cop + 5 VTs versus Mafia Goon + Mafia Goon + Mafia N2 Fruit Vendor seem balanced?
Or does Town Informed 1-Shot Babysitter + Town Doctor + Town Jailkeeper + 6 VTs versus Mafia Goon + Mafia Informed (There are no cops in this setup.) + Mafia N2 Fruit Vendor seem more likely?- Ircher
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VOTE: OkaPokaIn post 3541, OkaPoka wrote:id like to be unvoted please- Ircher
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- Ircher
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I feel like I should hammer you for this post alone.In post 3574, OkaPoka wrote:ircher just because a case is stronger doesnt mean its more likely to flip scum
Perhaps on a random lynching level, but when it comes to reads, stronger reads supposedly have a higher chance of flipping what you think.
pedit: prove you'll vote Flavor- Ircher
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The order seems different @Flavor?In post 3504, Flavor Leaf wrote:In post 2571, Flavor Leaf wrote:I could go Nomnom.
I think my order of preference for lynch is:
Okapoka
Nomnomnom
Penguinpower
Chemist
Persivul
Ircher isn’t on the list, i just kinda wanted to put the name here like it is.In post 2576, Flavor Leaf wrote:I think Okapoka is clearly scum trying to draw fake associations and do some damage control because I’m close to a full game solve.
I’ve got some plot holes, but more info is needed in the game, and it’s not gonna be a full without a doubt solve this day phase.
I am narrowing the field, thoughIn post 2578, Flavor Leaf wrote:Okapoka/Nomnom/persivul team...?- Ircher
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3618 by Flavor Leaf --> That's a good point, but it's also a risky move to make as town. Making it as scum honestly would make more sense, but I'm not necessarily saying it was a scum-motivated post. It's more just a net null thing.
3622 by pisskop --> Haven't they always been annoying?
3623 by Flavor Leaf --> No, we're in 5p LyLo.
3633 by OkaPoka --> Yeah, I'm not really seeing the scumslip. You might just have to spell it out for me, sorry.
3640 by Flavor Leaf --> (It took you long enough...)
3643 by Flavor Leaf --> I disagree. Penguin lynch was the result of primarily nomnomnom with heavy support from Flavor Leaf. I'm still willing to hear you out, but let's get our facts straight.
3649 by Flavor Leaf --> {CITATION NEEDED} (from Day 3, I'll maybe accept a Day 2 citation)
3663 by OkaPoka --> I think that's a bit of misrep... He hasn't really accused everyone? Well maybe he has, but to varying degrees, and that's what matters most.
3670 by Flavor Leaf --> No, I don't think that's how it works (and yet it's believable coming from Flavor Leaf.) By definition, if you scum read a person, you generally expect them to flip scum. If it is a weak enough read where you don't think they'll flip scum more often than they flip town, then it's not useful read that you should be actively advocating the lynch of.
3700 by OkaPoka --> Gotta say, I agree that the proper move would be to kill Omo.
3702 by Flavor Leaf --> Admittedly, this is kinda what gives me the most pause about lynching Flavor. Alas, I'm still not really convinced OkaPoka is scum, so idk.
3712 by Flavor Leaf --> Yeah, that's a really good point. PK/Oka are out and PK/Persi are out. That means PK/Flavor is the only option if PK is scum.
3719 by pisskop --> I'm honestly tempted to say we just lynch Persi here. Like I said, I'm still mostly townreading OkaPoka but not as strongly as before.
3720 by Persivul --> Yes sorta, BUT Chemist was actually being fairly townread early game. It's not out of the question scum tried to kill Chemist Night 1.- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
- Ircher
He / Him / His- What A Grand Idea
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- Ircher
-
Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
- Ircher
He / Him / His- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15190
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- Pronoun: He / Him / His
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Either it's pisskop/Flavor Leaf or Persivul is scum. That's the conclusion I'm coming to.
We've already ruled out Pisskop/Me, Pisskop/OkaPoka, and Pisskop/Persivul.
I don't think it's Flavor Leaf/OkaPoka based on their interactions in the last few pages.
So that means either Persivul is scum or the team is pisskop/Flavor. Now the question is which is it? - Ircher
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