Mini 601 - Cog City: Trouble Below - Game Over

[Goatrevolt]

What exactly does a traitor entail? I know that he's a townie who's helping the scum, but do the scum know who the traitor is, or does he just know who they are?

==============================================================

Official Vote Count

Oman (2) -- Erratus Apathos, sirdanilot
Erratus Apathos (1) -- veerus

Not Voting (5) -- Jester, Near, StrangerCoug, Oman, Goatrevolt

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

=====================================================================

[Oman]

Traitor has several meanings. The first is the "Judas" like traitor, that is a townie, once lynched becomes scum.

From the wiki:

Most commonly the Traitor knows who is in the Mafia, but the Mafia do not know who the Traitor is. The Traitor works, through his or her vote, to keep the Mafia from getting lynched.

Another variation is the Mafia Spy (a.k.a. Devil). This version does not know who is in the Mafia, but can investigate once each night to look for Cops or other power roles, that he can then try to expose during the day.

In a third variation, sometimes used in conjunction with one of the others, the Mafia can choose at any time in the game to recruit their Traitor. Before this time, the Traitor appears innocent to Cops, and/or has investigative abilities. Once recruited, the Traitor becomes a normal Mafia Goon.

It seems we do not have the Judas, as he isn't alive. SO I'd say we have Wiki version 1, wiki version 2, wiki 3 sounds a bit "Un-normal" to me, plus the site doesn't have a big metause of that one.

I could be wrong though. Outguessing the mod is not a strong suit.

[StrangerCoug]

I doubt version 2 since Oman seems to have known that bionnicchop was the cop unless we have two traitors (not likely), so probably 1 and/or 3.

[Oman]

But I doubt Gamma actually invesitgated Bionic. As gamma posted he thought Sirdan was town beginning D2, which makes sirdan his investigation.

[Oman]

Bah! Switch them 'till its logical.

My vote is for wiki1

[veerus]

Isn't there usually 3 scum in a 12-player game? Earlier I assumed that with the traitor gone, we're down to 2 scum.. is that the correct assumption, or are we still looking at 3?

[Oman]

Veerus, I can't make that assumption. Likely we'd be at 3 with a power heavy town. But I can't guess that, and nor can anyone else short of a massclaim

[Oman]

Veerus, I can't make that assumption. Likely we'd be at 3 with a power heavy town. But I can't guess that, and nor can anyone else short of a massclaim.

[StrangerCoug]

Does the traitor officially count toward the "scum", even though he or she is trying to help the scum?

[Jester]

I've seen three or four variations on the Traitor role in both games I've played and games I've read. Most often, the Traitor knows who the other scum are. In addition, usually, a Traitor is counted with scum in determining when end-game happens (ie, two scum + one traitor + three townies = scum end-game win).

However, this could also be a variant where the Traitor works to keep the scum from being lynched but isn't counted among the scum himself. In other words, a simple "You win when the scum wins" victory condition. Given how quickly Gamma sacrificed himself with the outcome of the day 2 vote in doubt, I think this is the more likely possibility: Gamma knew who the scum were, but wouldn't himself be counted with them toward a scum victory. If he

was

counted with them toward a scum victory, I don't think he would have hung himself quite so quickly.

It

does

raise the interesting question of who Gamma was lynching himself to protect. The only person in any danger of being lynched on day two was Oman, with four votes. What say you, Oman?

P.S. Goatrevolt, you miss this possibility in your 488. Care to comment?

P.P.S. A more detailed post from me tomorrow. I'm done with my read. -J

[sirdanilot]

Okay, firstly, now my main suspects are Strangercough and Oman, oman being my main one. Therefore,

fos strangercough

.

That said, my long awaited PbPA on Oman.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... posts=7433

For the post numbers, I'll use the numbers that you can see on that link, so those aren't actual post numbers.

Before I start, I'd like to point out that Oman's general play style is always a bit scummy, but there are specific bits in here that are especially scummy.

#0 - That doesn't really look like he is contributing to the town!
#1 - That vote is a bit soon, but Oman tends to do that. Would be good, if it weren't for the fact he may be bussing Strangercough. See post #5.
#2 - Interesting. Most seems town except '
StrangerCoug is okay, its when people think its StrangerCOP that the problem arises.'. What does he mean with that, hm?
#3 - good mostly. 'a game about deceit'.... looks like he is deceiving the town hm? ambiguous.
#4 - Good actually, although he is hinting towards having a power role which could be scum trying to do that in order to base a later claim off that.
#5 - Interesting. The other top suspect, sc (I'm going to abbreviate you, sorry!) defends him and he immediately tries to unvote. He is so eager to, actually, that he messes up the bolding tags! Also see #1.
#6 - Doesn't find Gamma that scummy. But, Gamma was the traitor so we have to give Oman credit that he didn't know he was scum. Actually, I think I'm going to come back on this post later as it may have been important.
#7,8- good
#9 - uhm what? Scummy.
#10, 11 - bla
#12 - Important too! First he thinks Gamma is just a newbie, now he is giving him scum vibes! He also never mentioned anything about EA being scummy, and now he says he is giving him vibes too.
#13 - finds me and veerus town.
#14 - 1 is good, 2 is bad. He makes it sound towny, but if you see #4 you'll see this in a different perspective. scummy.
#15 - sure
#16 - First I am town, and now I am suddenly scum? Scummy.
#17 - 'So even if town is wrong we still lynch them because he is still wrong'. Just reading between the lines here.
#18 - see above
#19 - uhm, well, see #16. He's completely turned to find me scummy at this point.
#20 - Good, he could honestly suspect syrial here. But as we all know, syrial did make himself suspicious and Oman may view him as an easy target.
#21 - good, see #20
#22 - good actually
#23 - good
#24 - easy bussing on Strangercough, see #1,5
#25 - Hurried post (see the bolding), but the most interesting is the last line. Very opportunistic, I am surprised nobody noticed it.
#26 - bla
#27 - good
#28 - Wait, he shifts off gamma! He picks the easy target instead, lowell namely. A quick meta easily shows that Lowell plays like this in all his games. He is a lurker that doesn't ever contribute. This makes him an easy target to find scummy. Scummy.
#29 - Trying to get bionic to claim. See #4, though. He may be fishing for power roles because he wants to be able to claim later on! And he wouldn't want to have claimed cop while bionic was the real cop, and risk to get lynched. And obviously scum want to know who is the cop. Hence the kill on bionnic this night.
#30 - see 28
#31 - good actually
#32 -35 - being the mysterious oman self again. He basically posted the same thing, but then in a lot of posts. A good way to post without contributing. Scummy.
#36 -

I have a sneaking suspicion that gamma may be scum. My reasoning was flawed. Look...let me put it this way Bionic: I know something about this situation that could cause me to vote gamma immediatly, but you answered a question I asked earlier in a way that makes me think not.

Oh, so now your reasoning was flawed and has to be replaced? He's also stopped saying goat is town for some reason.
#37 - see above
#38 - Good way to make up for #37 (not)
#39 - It looks like he made post #38, then saw it was kinda scummy and made a towny post quickly after. This post in isolation is towny, however.


You know what, I think I've had quite enough of this pbpa for now. I came to the conclusion I had expected: Oman is scum. I specifically looked for bits that aren't covered by Oman's general playstyle, and I think everyone can agree I found them. If you want his more recent posts to be analyzed, go ahead.

[Goatrevolt]

It

does

raise the interesting question of who Gamma was lynching himself to protect. The only person in any danger of being lynched on day two was Oman, with four votes. What say you, Oman?

P.S. Goatrevolt, you miss this possibility in your 488. Care to comment?

Actually, I completely missed that. I think that's an excellent point. Gamma was at -1, but he had been at -1 before and was struggling to keep himself alive. Why does he throw in the towel this time around? Perhaps because Oman is scum and the Oman wagon was picking up steam. I think that's a nice pick up.

I think that point in addition to the case I made on Oman yesterday are enough for a

Vote Oman

.

Oman keeps hinting at a power role as his means of defending himself, but I don't see that as a real defense. Scum could easily do that to avoid a legitimate wagon.

I've been meaning to re-read StrangerCoug as well. I don't have much of a read on him one way or another at this point.

[StrangerCoug]

Okay, firstly, now my main suspects are Strangercough and Oman, oman being my main one.

Stop adding an H at the end of my name! What are you, allergic to cats or something?

[veerus]

Town: I'm sorry I haven't had (and still don't have) much analysis on this day as I've been preparing for a vacation. I shall stay with my vote on EA, though I agree that Oman's play seems very counter-productive in town's efforts to catch scum. I would also like to ask everyone to re-examine avinashv's posts (the player Oman replaced). The only real point that sticks out to me is his argument with EA, who seems scummy to me personally. Does that argument seem staged to anyone? It obviously went nowhere after avinashv's replacement...

MOD: I will be on vacation out of the country and will likely have no access to the computer for any significant time to be able to contribute to the discussion. My next post will likely be around July 7-9. If that is too long,

(or if the town thinks it's too long)

please feel free to replace me. Thanks.

[Goatrevolt]

I really don't think EA and Oman are scumbuddies. Even though the specific Avinashv/EA discussion died out when Oman replaced in, EA has been pushing Oman since early on day 1 and hasn't really relented any on it.

If Oman is scum, I would guess EA is probably town. Likewise, if EA is scum, I would guess Oman is probably town.

[Incognito]

Currently searching for a veerus replacement.

[Oman]

It does raise the interesting question of who Gamma was lynching himself to protect. The only person in any danger of being lynched on day two was Oman, with four votes. What say you, Oman?

I don't think he was trying to protect anyone. Scum rarely sacrifice themselves to save someone, its not part of the psychology.

More to the point, if gamma lynched himself to save me (hypothetical=omanscum), I really don't find that to be a good play. Why would the town turn around after something like that? If I was going to be lynched then, I'd be likely to be lynched later.

Anyway, I didn't want to bring this up, but seeing as we've pretty much confirmed that Gamma wouldn't have had communication with me if I was scum: Why did he vote me so many times, and (I don't think) vote any one else? That's pretty poor scum play.

StrangerCoug is okay, its when people think its StrangerCOP that the problem arises.'. What does he mean with that, hm?

I was getting the feeling that people were thinking StrangerCoug was a cop. I felt he wasn't

good mostly. 'a game about deceit'.... looks like he is deceiving the town hm? ambiguous.

Stop that, thats lame, I feel you're confirmed, so this is just bullshit work, not a scum-ploy. I said its a game of deceit. That includes decieving the scum. You're taking something I said out of context and twisiting it to be scummy.

ood actually, although he is hinting towards having a power role which could be scum trying to do that in order to base a later claim off that.

This is what I'm talking about, you're saying: Okay thats logical....EXCEPT WHAT IF HE IS SCUM!! If you'd gone through that PBPA with the thought that I was town, you'd have a totally different post there, you're trying to reassure yourself.

#9 - uhm what? Scummy.

You should've really looked at context. Basically someone asked Coug a question, I answered it (which I try NEVER to do, but did because I was under a certain influence). How is it scummy? I don't see it.

#12 - Important too! First he thinks Gamma is just a newbie, now he is giving him scum vibes! He also never mentioned anything about EA being scummy, and now he says he is giving him vibes too.

If you read what I said, I said they were giving me "Bad vibes" but I "Do not have a suspect". I never said scum vibes, stop doing this.

#14 - 1 is good, 2 is bad. He makes it sound towny, but if you see #4 you'll see this in a different perspective.

For those not watching: 1 is me saying I'm dropping all these blantant powerrole tells to WIFOM the scum. 2. is saying if a mafia member fakeclaims and its my role I can point back to all those points and say "see, I was the X"

#16 - First I am town, and now I am suddenly scum? Scummy.

Never said that: Denied. And Even If: Do your suspicions not change?

#17 - 'So even if town is wrong we still lynch them because he is still wrong'. Just reading between the lines here.

Here is what I actually posted and the post that promted it:

That seems like a quick turnaround on sirdanilot though. It's odd considering you labeled him one of your most town a few posts back. Explain?

Wrong is wrong. Regardless of alignment.

As you can see I never advocated your lynch, or any lynch. Specifically not that of a townie. You're putting words into my mouth and twisting it. STOP IT. I know you're not doing it cause you're scum, so why the hell are you doing it?

#19 - uhm, well, see #16. He's completely turned to find me scummy at this point.

We'll deal with this later.

#20 - Good, he could honestly suspect syrial here. But as we all know, syrial did make himself suspicious and Oman may view him as an easy target.

YET ANOTHER! Yes Oman does something town...but he could also be scum! OMG!!!

#29 - Trying to get bionic to claim. See #4, though. He may be fishing for power roles because he wants to be able to claim later on! And he wouldn't want to have claimed cop while bionic was the real cop, and risk to get lynched. And obviously scum want to know who is the cop. Hence the kill on bionnic this night.

Okay, I knew bionic was the cop (as good as knew) if I were scum, I would've just shut my mouth, killed him, and moved on. EA found a strong cop tell from bionic, anyone could've found it. Just cuase you didn't realise it doesn't mean it was a goddamn mystery to everyone else. I've already said why I asked Bionic to say what I asked him to say, and you continue to give me new intentions and new motivations. Stop inventing me.

He's also stopped saying goat is town for some reason.

Goat is town...want me to say it again? Goat and veerus are town.

As are you, but i take no credit for that.

Now, back to this whole "Quick switcharound from thinking someone is not scum to thinking they are" thing:

This is a scumtell. Why would you needlessly confuse the town by not playing at face value? How is that play helpful to the town?

Post Four hundred and twenty six is the first time you express suspicion of me, and its on a pointless disagreement in game theory.

So yeah, basically, you're PBPA is an utter rag, and worse than that, its just poor quality.

[Erratus Apathos]

Here are quotes from three of Veerus's last four posts:

This is a game where you usually only need to hide your true intentions if you're scum. To me, Oman's evasiveness is scummier than Gamma's faulty reasoning.

vote: Oman

Given the speed with which the Gamma bandwagon gained speed, I think it's pretty unlikely that scum would vote him and keep their vote on. This logic implies that the remaining scum is among the people who didn't vote for Gamma. Which means EA, Near, Goat and myself.

Town: I'm sorry I haven't had (and still don't have) much analysis on this day as I've been preparing for a vacation. I shall stay with my vote on EA, though I agree that Oman's play seems very counter-productive in town's efforts to catch scum. I would also like to ask everyone to re-examine avinashv's posts (the player Oman replaced). The only real point that sticks out to me is his argument with EA, who seems scummy to me personally. Does that argument seem staged to anyone? It obviously went nowhere after avinashv's replacement...

"An Oman wagon? Let me get on and lynch that scum! Oh wait, now there's not an Oman wagon, so there's no way he can be scum. SHIT another Oman wagon? In that case, I'm

definitely

suspicious of him again."

Oman: please indicate whether you would prefer we lynch you or your scumbuddy today.

[sirdanilot]

Also, the only way you can know veerus, goat and I are town is if you are scum yourself!

You're trying to turn around my pbpa in your favor, which is just promoting the wifom. It won't help you. I think we can all now be pretty sure you are scum.

And for the cop argument, why would you not have stopped getting bionnic to give more cop tells if you already knew if you were town? Town has no interest in knowing powerroles unless the person with powerroles is about to be lynched, and iirc bionnic wasn't at that time.

As for the veerus suspicion, that's actually plausible. Maybe we should research a strangercough, veerus and Oman scum trio possibility?

Also, sc, your last post, sorry for putting the h at the end all the time but I actually think that post is a scumtell as it is a post without content. Veerus last post was lacking content too, but then again he is going on vacation and will be replaced so I won't call him out on that.

sc, what do you think about oman? oman, what do you think about sc?

[StrangerCoug]

Also, sc, your last post, sorry for putting the h at the end all the time but I actually think that post is a scumtell as it is a post without content. Veerus last post was lacking content too, but then again he is going on vacation and will be replaced so I won't call him out on that.

You consider posts without content to be scummy, eh? Especially since you seem to be taking it as the right to ignore it (the H isn't going away anytime soon in your posts)? Frustration over how a user name is supposed to be spelled is a null tell, and you're using this as an excuse to suspect me.

Suspect me because there are things I said that actually matter in this game that point to my likely being scum, not because I'm correcting your spelling of my name.

Vote: sirdanilot

[Incognito]

destructor replaces veerus effective immediately. Also, Near has been prodded.

[sirdanilot]

Sc, that's hardly a good reason to vote me.

I wasn't suspecting you because you complain I spell your name incorrectly, but I was saying that post contained absolutely no content which is a scumtell. I do not consider frustration over an incorrectly spelled name content.

I am

suspecting

you because you hammered Gamma, and because of Oman's not so subtle posts that could serve as a basis for the assumption you two are scumbuddies.

It looks like you are voting me out of frustration because I keep spelling your username incorrectly, is that right?

[sirdanilot]

EBWOP: And you haven't told me what you think about oman. Answering that question would contribute greatly to the town, you know. Even if you're scum you may want to hold the appearance that you're town up for just a little while. And if you're town, then let's hear you!

[Oman]

Oman: please indicate whether you would prefer we lynch you or your scumbuddy today.

Loaded. But I'll answer truthfully:

My thinking veerus is town is not 100% (I'm obviously not the cop). My knowledge that I am town is 100%. Therefor: Veerus lynched today over me.

Did you expect another answer? FTR: I think that question is extremely scummy.

Also, the only way you can know veerus, goat and I are town is if you are scum yourself!

Bionic confirmed you, almost certainly, veerus is a very reliable read I get, but not 100%, Goat is a different type of read, he's probably furthest.

You're trying to turn around my pbpa in your favor, which is just promoting the wifom. It won't help you. I think we can all now be pretty sure you are scum.

Where do I do this? The only time I turn anything is when I try to show you how one-eyed you're being.

And for the cop argument, why would you not have stopped getting bionnic to give more cop tells if you already knew if you were town? Town has no interest in knowing powerroles unless the person with powerroles is about to be lynched, and iirc bionnic wasn't at that time.

Did you even read that day or my response to this same question a few times?

oman, what do you think about sc?

He's not in my townie trio.

Frustration over how a user name is supposed to be spelled is a null tell, and you're using this as an excuse to suspect me.

Suspect me because there are things I said that actually matter in this game that point to my likely being scum, not because I'm correcting your spelling of my name.

Look, I'm with you. This is just another excuse of Sirdan finding HORRIBLE nothings and calling them scumtells.

Sc, that's hardly a good reason to vote me.

This is also correct. Sirdan, I think, including the "pre-almost confirmed" area where I told you how wrong you were on game theory there. I think you're just horribly misguided, but I don't remember you being this bad in other games.

It looks like you are voting me out of frustration because I keep spelling your username incorrectly, is that right?

Again, you really don't read do you?

Even if you're scum you may want to hold the appearance that you're town up for just a little while.

Dear God you're pretentious.

[destructor]

Hi everyone, I've had a read of the first 5 or so pages and I think sirdanilot is scummy.

Vote: sirdanilot

I'll try to finish my read asap.

Anyone got any questions for me or anything they think I should focus on?