Last post for the day.
@strangercoug.
My last post got me thinking actually. This bit:
Fun fact: If we always wait until hitting the 3-day-modkill deadline before posting, we can actually have 12+ lynches before the mafia even have an nk. That's the furthest end of the ratio. Does anyone have software they could use to graph out all the deadlines and stuff to find the best balance between information:nk? I'm too lazy to do it on paper. We could seriously screw the mafia over if we knew.
This made me see something which nobody seems to have spotted in my original numbers - the 5 day maximum assumption is wrong.
We theoretically have 10 games days maximum(50 real time days), not 5 - this game is nightless.
[warning: some number crunching]
If we wait for the maximum limit of 3 days before posting, the minimum number of posts we can make per player is 17. (50/3 rounded off)
Multiplied by 12 players, that's 204 posts total in the game - actual number is way less, since we actually get rid of one player every game day, but irrelevant, because the point is that - we can lynch everyone except for 2 players before the mafia even nk. So technically, if we can pick out 2 people now who we trust, we can win the game by posting minimally and just wagoning.
The problem, is that we can't - because we won't have information on people unless people actually post more than once every 3 days. That's the problem I'm trying to figure out, how often should we actually post?
That's why I suggested 2 posts per real time day.
Anyway, since it's NOT 5 days max, 2 days per real time day is not as good as I originally thought, but still a pretty good idea.
2 posts per real time day translates to 750 posts over the whole 10 days. (Each game day is 5 real time days, so it's 10 posts per person per game day. Since we lynch 1 person every day, the first day will have 120 posts, and the last day will have 30, on average.)
That doesn't factor in nightkills though. It's hard to show what happens when you factor in nightkill without a graph or a table, but basically going with 2 posts per real day per player, the scum get their first nk on the
3rd game day, 1st real day.
Their second nk will happen on the
6th game day, 1st real day.
The game will go into lylo on the 8th day with only 594 total posts: So the 3 endgame people will actually have 156 posts between them to discuss.
[Note: I'm assuming longest possible scenario here, we lynch 1 scum and get endgamed with the last. We could end up lynching them both early and end the game right after that.]
Anyway, since I doubt they can pull off 156 posts in 5 days, maybe the last 250 posts should be spread out starting from when we have 5 or 4 people left. (day 6 after nk, or day 7)
[/end number crunch]
Seeing as how we'll be getting off 8 lynches to the scum's 2 nk, yes, I think two posts per real time day per player is a pretty good deal.
I'm not going to show the numbers, but if you go with 1 post per real time day, the scum get their first nk at the end of the 5th game day. They only get that one nk. The last 3 players will go into lylo with a total of only 325 posts, or 175 posts between all of them to kill.
9 lynches to 1 nk is also a good deal. Also, I've realized it's probably not that bad an idea, since we actually have more information now than I initially expected we'd have if people only posted once per day.
I suppose I'm fine if people post either once a day or twice a day. Anything less is just massive lurking considering we have a 5 day deadline.
--
Note: I
think
they're right, but just in case, can someone check my numbers?