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Post Post #2 (isolation #0) » Fri Jun 27, 2008 8:48 pm

Post by ting =) »

Vote:Icemuffin
for not knowing how to spell. It's IceCREAM.

Since we have a 100 post limit, I'm going to type out what I think of the setup in what is supposed to be my random vote post.

The multiheads scare me. Especially 'Now a Jdodge.' With that many people in that account, I'm not sure how easy it'll be getting a read. I've also never played with any of the people in that account except for xdaamno.

I'm going to be annoyed by people who make short-ish posts and will move to get them lynched. Every post just bumps the mafia kill. The more content we get in before the post count hits 250, the better.

I'm also going to be annoyed by people who don't post and will move to get them lynched. We have a 5 day deadline.

We should wagon someone.

---

Has any game like this been run before? This is the first game I'm in with a <1 week deadline, the first with multiheads, and the first with mod/nightkill based on post count. Are there any particular strategies for this kind of setup?
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Post Post #12 (isolation #1) » Sat Jun 28, 2008 5:35 pm

Post by ting =) »

unvote:vote NaJD.
You're getting lynched at deadline unless you can convince me why I should unvote.

Okay, I was running some numbers. There are 3 things to worry about and keep in mind when posting.
  1. The 100 posts limit.
  2. The 250 posts nk.
  3. The deadline.
Since we have a 10:2 setup, this game will last 4 days maximum. Assuming you want to spread you posts over the 4 days, that's 25 posts per game day, or 5 posts per real time day. That's actually not as bad as I thought it would be. The 100 post limit is probably the least of our worries.

The 250 post nk is more troubling. Assuming we do make 5 posts per day to maximize the number of posts of we can make in this game, that's 12*25 posts in one game day, or 300 posts - the nk will happen before the day ends.

So, if we want the nk to roughly coincide with the end of the day, we should only have 50 posts per real time day, or ~4 posts per person.

Technically though, we could just wagon people right now and squeeze 10 days in before the mafia even have an nk. We need to find a ratio we're willing to work with. Having 5 days before night sets in would be awesome, but we'd have so little information to work with, the votes would be random.

I'm thinking 2 lynches/night kill is a fair lynch:information ratio.

I was thinking a graph would be a good way to represent all this, but I don't have the software to make one.

I agree that multiheads should probably discuss before posting, but that'd slow the game down a bit, which is pretty bad considering the deadline. NaJD probably can't wait until all 9 heads agree on something before making a post.

Obviously, we need to keep watch of our 100 posts, but I think squeezing as much information as we can before the 5 day deadline hits will be more important than waiting for agreement from other heads.

Unless you normally post once every hour, the multiheads should be safe posting normally with the 5 posts per real time day thing.

@strife.
I agree that Scumdra is definitely more dangerous than normal scum. I'm not sure how to approach getting a read on the hydras. I have a feeling I'll end up with conflicting reads on the heads of some of the hydras later on in the game. We can't just policy lynch hydras though, so I'm not sure.

Towndras are probably going to be pretty helpful because of their varied insight. Assuming NaJD is town for example, that's already the same number of players as the rest of the town scumhunting. As long as they can work with the limits and deadlines, they'll probably contribute more than us.

Given the choice between lynching a hydra and lynching a normal player, where both of them have equal chance of being scum though, I'd lynch the hydra. :hides from all the enraged hydras:

Whew. Uber long post by page 1. I'm cringing at the thought of the massive walls of text we'll have later on.
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Post Post #14 (isolation #2) » Sat Jun 28, 2008 6:56 pm

Post by ting =) »

NaJD-trojan wrote:I have no idea how you got that. Even with a nk between each lynch and the next, this game could last 5 days.
Oops, I misread it as 10 total players, 2 of them scum. My bad.

New numbers:
Assuming spreading out, it's 20 posts per game day, or 4 posts per real time day. Everything else in my previous post should be fine.
NaJD-trojan wrote:One thing you should realize: as people are lynched, those 50 posts per real time day will be split between fewer and fewer people. That 100 post limit may be the least of our worries now, but it'll probably get more worrisome the later we get into the game.
Yes, that's why I mentioned going on the assumption of spreading the posts out. Also why I suggested graphing the information actually.

You just made me realize something though. If our rate of posting remains constant irregardless of deaths, the nk happens further and further apart. It should make for an interesting mid-end game.
NaJD-trojan wrote:Don't count on that amount of help... That leaves 6 heads that might be around, and I wouldn't be surprised if only 2 or 3 of us end up contributing.
Actually, I feel better that there's only 2 to 3 heads around. 9 is way pass the point of diminishing returns. I've never played with multi heads yet though, so I'm not so sure how it works really.

---

Saying one of your other heads did 'scummy action x' as a defense is cheap. You're essentially voting killa seven for the exact same thing you did.
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Post Post #28 (isolation #3) » Sun Jun 29, 2008 8:59 pm

Post by ting =) »

NAJ-jathan wrote:Ting is voting us for absolutely no reason.
ting's 1st post wrote:I'm going to be annoyed by people who make short-ish posts and will move to get them lynched. Every post just bumps the mafia kill.
You should have known better than to make a short post like that. I understand that you're made up of more than 1 player, but look at it from the outside - you just did something scummy and then went, 'but I didn't do it!'

It's like a murderer claiming he's schizoprenzic and pleading insanity.

I'm not suspicious of you at the moment. Just annoyed that one of you either didn't read the rules or chose to ignore it.
NAJ wrote:Also Do The Mafia Get To Kill During Nights Between Each Lynch?[/qutoe]
mod wrote:Also, remember that this game is nightless, and that scum get a kill every 250 non-mod posts.
----

I don't like the 1 post per real time day idea, whoever brought it up. It delays the nightkill, yes, but that's useless if we don't have information to catch scum. I think 2 posts per real time day is ideal. Right now, at day 1 - it means we'll have about 2 days until the nk. That's already better than a normal mini. Thoughts?

As the game goes on and we get less players, the nk gets further apart, so we really don't need to worry about wasting our 100 posts or about the 250post nk as much as we should worry about beating the 5 day deadline.

Fun fact: If we always wait until hitting the 3-day-modkill deadline before posting, we can actually have 12+ lynches before the mafia even have an nk. That's the furthest end of the ratio. Does anyone have software they could use to graph out all the deadlines and stuff to find the best balance between information:nk? I'm too lazy to do it on paper. We could seriously screw the mafia over if we knew.

----

I agree that the NaJ wagon grew really fast. I'm not sure if it's because of people being iffy of the deadline or because some of them are scum wagoning.

I really don't like maxwell's first post, and I don't like his response to Muerto when he got called on it.
vote:maxwell.
I think he's a better place for my vote than NaJD at the moment.
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Post Post #30 (isolation #4) » Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:49 am

Post by ting =) »

Last post for the day.

@strangercoug.
My last post got me thinking actually. This bit:
Fun fact: If we always wait until hitting the 3-day-modkill deadline before posting, we can actually have 12+ lynches before the mafia even have an nk. That's the furthest end of the ratio. Does anyone have software they could use to graph out all the deadlines and stuff to find the best balance between information:nk? I'm too lazy to do it on paper. We could seriously screw the mafia over if we knew.
This made me see something which nobody seems to have spotted in my original numbers - the 5 day maximum assumption is wrong.

We theoretically have 10 games days maximum(50 real time days), not 5 - this game is nightless.

[warning: some number crunching]

If we wait for the maximum limit of 3 days before posting, the minimum number of posts we can make per player is 17. (50/3 rounded off)

Multiplied by 12 players, that's 204 posts total in the game - actual number is way less, since we actually get rid of one player every game day, but irrelevant, because the point is that - we can lynch everyone except for 2 players before the mafia even nk. So technically, if we can pick out 2 people now who we trust, we can win the game by posting minimally and just wagoning.

The problem, is that we can't - because we won't have information on people unless people actually post more than once every 3 days. That's the problem I'm trying to figure out, how often should we actually post?

That's why I suggested 2 posts per real time day.

Anyway, since it's NOT 5 days max, 2 days per real time day is not as good as I originally thought, but still a pretty good idea.
2 posts per real time day translates to 750 posts over the whole 10 days. (Each game day is 5 real time days, so it's 10 posts per person per game day. Since we lynch 1 person every day, the first day will have 120 posts, and the last day will have 30, on average.)

That doesn't factor in nightkills though. It's hard to show what happens when you factor in nightkill without a graph or a table, but basically going with 2 posts per real day per player, the scum get their first nk on the
3rd game day, 1st real day.
Their second nk will happen on the
6th game day, 1st real day.
The game will go into lylo on the 8th day with only 594 total posts: So the 3 endgame people will actually have 156 posts between them to discuss.

[Note: I'm assuming longest possible scenario here, we lynch 1 scum and get endgamed with the last. We could end up lynching them both early and end the game right after that.]

Anyway, since I doubt they can pull off 156 posts in 5 days, maybe the last 250 posts should be spread out starting from when we have 5 or 4 people left. (day 6 after nk, or day 7)

[/end number crunch]

Seeing as how we'll be getting off 8 lynches to the scum's 2 nk, yes, I think two posts per real time day per player is a pretty good deal.

I'm not going to show the numbers, but if you go with 1 post per real time day, the scum get their first nk at the end of the 5th game day. They only get that one nk. The last 3 players will go into lylo with a total of only 325 posts, or 175 posts between all of them to kill.

9 lynches to 1 nk is also a good deal. Also, I've realized it's probably not that bad an idea, since we actually have more information now than I initially expected we'd have if people only posted once per day.

I suppose I'm fine if people post either once a day or twice a day. Anything less is just massive lurking considering we have a 5 day deadline.
--

Note: I
think
they're right, but just in case, can someone check my numbers?
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Post Post #39 (isolation #5) » Mon Jun 30, 2008 10:54 pm

Post by ting =) »

Unvote. Vote:killa seven

That was a horrible post. I admit I don't have a meta on you, but you're hardly contributing anything at all. Of the three people I'd be willing to lynch, you, naj and maxwell, you're the only one who hasn't said
anything.


@maxwell.
What do you think of k7 now?

@ice.
icemuffin wrote:From my point of view, a hydra with tons of heads is going to be easier to read than a single player. You'll have multiple players leaving tells if they're scum, and multiple players contributing analysis if they are town.
I disagree. They're harder to read because you can't get a meta on them. One head might look really scummy, and another might be the most protown contributor in the game. Just because a person drops a lot of tells doesn't make them scum. A number of people have built their playstyles around that as a meta shield.

I agree they'll contribute a lot, but not that they'll be easier to read.
icemuffin wrote:My view on scum posting rates is that they'll probably post a lot early in the game, to accelerate us towards the 250 post mark, but slow down significantly around 50 posts or so to avoid the 100 post instant kill.
This makes lurking in the late game a more significant tell and definitely something to watch for.
NO. There's something about the game mechanics you're not getting, but I can't tell you
why,
because then it'll be a Cassandra prophecy.

@natirasha.
Okay, quick summary:
Obv stuff: Posting a lot = nk. Posting too little = can't scumhunt.
number crunching = how much we should actually post.
strife putting in words what I was trying to show but perhaps muddled with all the numbers. wrote:Given that the game is nightless, and scum Only get to kill every 10 pages, I will restate the importance of not posting very often. The less town talks here, the better. I'd go as far as saying that it's a better idea to talk less and lynch based on less information than it is to talk more and have better informed lynches. Theoretically, if we could get 10 lynches (max #) before page 10, then town would almost be guaranteed a win. Unfortunately, as broken as it is, that's the ideal play here. If scum only get 1 or 2 lynches, town is at a Huge advantage. Scum win only if town spends too much time talking.
My conclusion was that if we want the scum to only have 1 nk(this will give us 9 lynches to their sole nk) - we should post about once per day. Twice per day gives them 2 nks, but with 8 lynches and more information, I think that's also a decent trade off.

I've also said a lot of other stuff besides numbers, but if you find the numbers distracting, I'll stop.

@strife.
strife wrote:You can't say anything in 2 posts a day that you can't say in 1 post a day. Hell, I don't have a problem with people posting once every 2.5 days (twice per game day), so long as that post has a lot of content.
Fair enough. After seeing how the game is turning out so far with the current rate of posting, perhaps 1 per day gives us enough info after all. I think two posts per game day is stretching into lurky though.

@lawrencelot.
Nah, forget the graph. Our current rate of posting is pretty good, so maybe it's not so important after all.

I agree with Muerrto's reads, but k7's last post makes me think he's scummier than maxwell.
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Post Post #46 (isolation #6) » Tue Jul 01, 2008 5:42 pm

Post by ting =) »

Hmm. Okay, I was thinking about this, and I think it's better if I explain some things now so that we can decide what we do about it, instead of hoping that the scum don't realize it too.
ting wrote:
ice wrote:My view on scum posting rates is that they'll probably post a lot early in the game, to accelerate us towards the 250 post mark, but slow down significantly around 50 posts or so to avoid the 100 post instant kill.
This makes lurking in the late game a more significant tell and definitely something to watch for.
NO. There's something about the game mechanics you're not getting, but I can't tell you why, because then it'll be a Cassandra prophecy.
Scum will
not
lurk at endgame, because THE SCUM AUTO WIN AT LYLO. They can just spam bump the thread to 250 posts and kill a townie. We can't do anything about it because:
rules wrote:
At the end of each day,
whoever has had the most votes on them for the longest time will be lynched
even if that person already has a majority of votes on them before deadline.
Essentially, this is why:
strife wrote:Lynching randomly would actually give town >90% chance to win, because scum would never get to NK.
is wrong. I know I've said it before, but I was hoping the scum wouldn't realize that:

THE MAFIA BECOME DAY VIGS WHEN WE HIT PAGE 3.

They have 200 posts total between them. As soon as we break the 50 posts barrier, they can set off their kill at any time and we can't stop it. If they do that at lylo, they win. They can't do it too early because we'll have enough days remaining to lynch both of them.

Now, ONE MAFIA NK IS INEVITABLE.

Even if everyone had been posting at a rate of a post every 3 real time days,(minimum number of posts) by the time we hit lylo,(day 8 at the earliest) the total game posts would have been around ~100 posts. The mafia would have have used up around 13 posts in that time each - they can still spam win.

The point I'm trying to bring across, is that MINIMAL POSTING IS NOT THE CORRECT WAY TO GO WITH THIS SETUP.
  • It will
    not
    achieve anything - it won't prevent the nk.
  • If everyone starts lurking, we won't be able to find scum - and that's the most important thing - we find scum before we hit lylo. If everyone uses the deadline as an excuse to lurk, we won't be able to do that.
Okay, so having established that we can't avoid an nk, and that posting less is the most uber wrongest response: (just to clarify, I'm not saying to 'give' the mafia an nk, they always had one in the books, whether they realized it or not.)

I propose that we
control
when
the nk happens, and
how many posts everyone has left
when it happens.


We can do this by implementing a constant rate of posting to stick with.
Example:
old number crunch post wrote:I'm not going to show the numbers, but if you go with 1 post per real time day, the scum get their first nk at the end of the 5th game day. They only get that one nk. The last 3 players will go into lylo with a total of only 325 posts, or 175 posts between all of them to kill.
Okay, so this will
force
the mafia nk to happen at the end of the 5th day. This resets the nk counter to 250 at the day before lylo. The mafia total post remaining will be 150 - they can no longer spam win at lylo.

---

Note that 1 post per day is just an example. I'm bringing this up because at the rate we're posting right now, we can't stop a lylo spam win. Obviously, this is all moot if we manage to lynch a scum, which would be the best way to deal with this.

Now, this isn't uber important, so
if everyone chooses to ignore this and just play on, I'm okay with that, but you have to remember that we'll need to win 1 day before lylo --> lylo = dead.
Just keep that in mind.

I'm iffy about that because of the low information content there'll be. Yes, shortening our deadline by 1 is about the same as recieving one nk, but this way we actually have more information to catch scum, and they can't surprise kill.


------

I'm sorry that this is long, I tried to make it fairly indepth so that we won't have to waste posts going back and forth over details later. I don't have the time to now to actually figure out the rate at which we should post though. The scenario with 1 post a day per player works, but there's probably a more ideal solution. Someone checking the numbers might be nice. I'll post next in 24 hours. Thoughts?

------

@Maxwell.
I like that you're putting out your own thoughts now. I still don't like your defense, but I like that you're trying to contribute.
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Post Post #57 (isolation #7) » Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:17 pm

Post by ting =) »

@muffin.
That's fine, just keep in mind that
we have to win before lylo.
It's fine if the town consensus is to just play like we're doing now, but don't forget that the
actual lylo
is the day before.

@ice.
ice wrote:is that each player has a 100 post cap, and once they reach it they die. I'm assuming this cap is in place to make it impossible for the scum to spam to 250 posts and get their NK in the first part of the game. So technically they can't do the auto-win at lylo unless they lurk for pretty much the entire game up until lylo.
Not quite.

There are 2 scum, both of them have 100 posts each. Together, they have 200 posts.

This is the
57th
post.

Hypothetical example: If kabenon and shadow girl are the scum.

Kabenon has made 2 posts - he has 98 posts remaining.
Shadowgirl has made 1 post - she has 99 posts remaining.

Together, they have 197 posts.
They can nk
now
if they want to.


That example doesn't take into account xyzzy's post count, but you get the point - the mafia become day vigs on this page. It doesn't matter who the scum are and what their current post count is - at the end of this page there will be 75 posts.(again not factoring in xyzzy's count for simplicity's sake) They don't need to lurk to use their nk. They never had to.

What I'm trying to say - post frequency has no relation to chances of being scum.

@strife.
See above. You
can't
delay
the nk. That's what I said telling people to post less frequently is useless. All it does is make it harder to find the scum - and we need to find them
before
lylo.

Note, I'm making a distinction between 'post less frequently' and 'post less.' I don't mind people posting unfrequently as long as they actually have a lot of content.

@muerrto, strife.
I was arguing with myself over when to reveal it. The scum would have realized it on their own eventually, it may have taken them until lylo, but they would have figured it out on their own.

By telling everyone early, I was hoping to convince everyone that taking away control of the nk from the scum would be best. I understand it might be complicated to implement though, so I'm fine with settling for letting everyone be aware that we need to win before lylo.

@maxwell.
When you repeat over and over, 'I'm a townie, so nah!' that's an appeal to emotion. Muerrto already said it, but you don't seem to see that it
is
an appeal to emotion. You're not bringing any logical arguments to your case, just telling us to believe you.

Your early posts were full of it. It's only in your later posts that you actually bring in arguments. That's what everyone, or at least me, has a problem with.

Also, like strangercoug said, you played the newb card. That is also an appeal to emotion:
maxwell wrote:everyone cannot seem to let go that i messed up by being a newb. please, just let that go.
You see? I don't see how anyone can interpret that as
not
an appeal to emotion.

That said, I think you sound genuine.
Misguided
Horribly wrong, but genuine.
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Post Post #69 (isolation #8) » Fri Jul 04, 2008 8:30 am

Post by ting =) »

Uggggggh. Come
on.
I can't believe all those modkills just happened.

Maxwell - you're 24 hours-ish from a modkill.
GreenCow - 26 ish

Mod: Is kabenon getting replaced?


Unofficial vote count:
stranger - muerrto, najd

najd - icemuffin
maxwellhouse - stranger

------

@muf.
Xyzzy said no.

----

I
hate
how najd's vote is constantly changing. Naj posts were completely anti maxwell, but their recent post puts their vote on strangercoug.

Yes, I know you guys are multiheads and that different people made those posts. The whole we're-on-half-a-mind thing doesn't sit well with me. For that matter, every multi's half-a-mind thing doesn't sit well with me. It gives you guys deniability of consequences if a mislynch happens. Urgh.

That said, I like trojan's last post. I would have been suspicious of him for jumping on strangercoug, but najd has been suspicious of strangercoug since day 1. Or at least, trojan. Ugh.

I don't know if this is a ploy or genuine.
---
I'm suspicious of greencow.

This is more gut/elimination than anything. I think strangercoug is more suspicious. Besides the stuff already mentioned:

His recent post says he's suspicious of maxwell for playing the newbie card. The thing is, he earlier already noted that, but he didn't assign any suspicion to maxwell for it. In fact, his reason for originally voting maxwell was not for playing the newbie card at all(his post 2). He's just hopping on Muerrto's and Naj's reasons.

He's already at lynch though, so my vote on him isn't needed.

I'm trying to make up my mind on Najd.

Till then,
vote:greencow.
Just as a marker. I'll switch my vote to either of naj/stranger once I make up my mind.
----

If no else gets 72 hour modkilled, we have 3 lynches to catch scum.
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Post Post #75 (isolation #9) » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:26 am

Post by ting =) »

Hmmm. I don't mind a name claim. I don't see how it'll help, but I don't see how it'll hurt either. If everyone's claiming, I'll claim.

---
greencow wrote:Why are you voting for us, exactly? I haven't seen you having any reasoning for us being scum, and yet you're voting for us.
I already admitted I have no logical arguments for it. That's why I said:
ting wrote:This is more gut/elimination than anything.
greencow wrote:You're voting for us, but you don't find us either of your two most suspicious players?
Yes, I said this already too. I'll switch my vote to one of naj/strangercoug later.
ting wrote:Just as a marker. I'll switch my vote to either of naj/stranger once I make up my mind.
@muf, maxwell.
You guys are engaging in a very circular argument. Just saying.

@
dahill.
i am content with TrojH putting our vote on Stranger, as i agree with everything he said about him.
You earlier said.
this is dahill chiming in real quickly.
unvote vote maxwell
this is so obvious scum that it hards
This came after trojan first voted stranger and made a case on him.

Why the change of mind?

@strife.
Your name is not the name of a player on mafiascum? If we have a name claim, and if no one objects, I'd rather you claim first.
For D2 leads I'm not particularly aggressive for any one person's lynch - even after a quick reread I don't have a major bias. The game mechanics here are putting an awkward spin on the usual strategy - with 5 days between lynches, it doesn't really leave much time for scumhunting.
I agree, this is the first time I've played in a game with 5 day deadlines. The lack of content before lynching irks me. That's why I was trying earlier to convince everyone to talk more.

Guys, it doesn't matter how often we post anymore. Whether we lurk or post a lot, the scum will still nk.

Because of the two modkills, we only have 3 lynches left till 5 player lylo. We need to find scum by then.
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Post Post #92 (isolation #10) » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:40 am

Post by ting =) »

I am Cicero. I've only played one game with xyzzy, where I was annoyed at xyzzy for calling for a massclaim.

-----


I did a search of ms for times when Muerrto and Brandi posted in GD. Muerrto has only posted in GD either to mention that he's going v/la, or in another thread which he started.

He was posting in GD at about May 20ish and only for a couple of days.

Brandi started posting there early May, which means he
might
have seen some of her posts and decided on this claim.

That said, he nearly never posts in GD, so I'm willing to believe his claim.

-----



Spaces indicate time between votes. Strikethrough indicates a switch.
stranger:[col]mue,najd [col].[col].[col]
strife
[col].[col].[col]maxwell[col].[col].[col]3 najd:[col]
muffin
[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col]0 maxwell:[col]
stranger
[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col]0 muffin:[col].[col]
maxwell
[col]
greencow
[col].[col].[col].[col].[col]strife[col].[col]1 cow:[col]ting[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col].[col]1 strife:[col].[col].[col].[col].[col]stranger[col]muffin [col].[col].[col]greencow[col]3

Strife's unvote/vote makes me think he's town. He had the chance to put stranger above himself, which
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Post Post #93 (isolation #11) » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:57 am

Post by ting =) »

damn, sorry - i clicked submit instead of preview.

The box thing is the votes and the timing of unvotes.

I don't like the last 2 votes. Strife timed his vote so that stranger would still be above him in the vote count.

I don't like greencow's because it seems intended more to prevent a stranger lynch than to lynch strife.

In the post where he votes strife, his reply to strife's wifom... is more wifom? In a setup where our votes are more important than normal, you're not trying very hard to justify yours.

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unvote. vote: strangercoug


I don't like how quickly the wagon shifted to strife all of a sudden. There was hardly any case on strife.
sc wrote:This post is full of bleh. You don't like maxwellhouse's wagon, and the only reason you're giving for your voting me instead also involves a wagon? You've got to do better than that. MUCH better.
It's a valid observation, but hardly not that big a deal.

Even cow(hasfdgas) thought so.
greencow wrote:I do slightly agree with SC about strife's vote on SC. He doesn't have good reasons for voting for him, it was purely bandwagon, which doesn't help the town at all. So SC's OMGUS vote is justified, if only barely. It's still not an excellent vote though.
Icemuffin's initial attack on strife reads like paranoia. It was just speculation with nothing to back it up.

What I don't get is why strife got heated over it and omgus'd muffin.
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Post Post #96 (isolation #12) » Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:44 am

Post by ting =) »

unvote. vote:strife

It's nearly deadline. I was waiting to see if strangercoug would spam the thread, he hasn't.

He's posted at other threads on the site since my post, so he's not v/la.

I'll admit I have no case on strife. I do, however, now think that strangercoug is town.

----

@mue.
Exactly, answers to 1,2,3 would imply that it's too unlikely a claim to have been made up - and so are probably real. Which, is what scum would want in a claim.

My post was just me saying I was willing to take the unlikely-ness at face value and not wifom myself over it.
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Post Post #99 (isolation #13) » Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:42 am

Post by ting =) »

Yes, they contradict.

At the time of my first post, strangercoug and strife were both at 3 votes each.

Whoever I voted would have been the lynch. If I picked the scum correctly, they would have spammed the thread.

I decided then that I'd watch whoever I voted for. If they spammed, they're scum. If they didn't, then they're most probably town.

Since stranger didn't spam, I'm inclined to think that he's town. This doesn't make strife scum, but it does make me think that my vote on strangercoug is on the wrong place. Hence, the switch to strife.
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Post Post #101 (isolation #14) » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:08 am

Post by ting =) »

WTF! You mean spam their 100 posts before they get killed off? Did it ever occur to you that maybe the scum didn't think that far ahead?! Did it ever occur to you that you've NOW given them that idea?
Wait, we're supposed to assume that the scum
haven't
realized that? Xyzzy posted how the nk works. I really doubt they couldn't have seen that.
And we've got 2-4 scum out there and now they know to spam their posts before they die.
No, just 2. Xyzzy already said the setup is 10:2 mountainous.

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Finally, I made sure to look at the time tags before changing my vote - the lynch is past already.

Stranger, who I think is town, would have been lynched if I hadn't switched, 5 days is past.

I waited until the last moment to see if stranger would spam, and then switched to strife,
at the last moment
so he wouldn't have time to spam.
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Post Post #108 (isolation #15) » Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:09 pm

Post by ting =) »

maxwell wrote:ting- what the frick is up with your vote? that is SUCH faulty logic. hasn't it occurred to you that strife hasn't been spamming either? and that even though your switch from strangercoug vote to strife vote, you are taking a vote off of someone to make the double lynch possible? thought you yourself don't find strife guilty?
URggggh. Haven't you read the rules AT ALL? - there's no double lynch. Whoever has the most votes on him the longest is lynched.

At the moment, and the deadline is past - strife is dead. Even if it weren't past the deadline, since muerrto unvoted stranger, he dropped to 2 votes momentarily, so though they're currently at tie, strife had 3 votes for the longest amount of time.

Also, read my reply to muerrto - I don't know if strife is guilty, but i do know that i don't think strangercoug is town, i don't want him lynched. It boils down to me currently thinking that strangercoug is townier, which means that given a choice of a stranger lynch or a strife lynch, i'd go with strife.

[quote="najd,trojan]Perhaps he just didn't think of it. Of course, if strife really IS scum (as you now suspect), he's STILL gonna spam the thread, now that you gave him the idea. We're in twilight; posts are still allowed until xyzzy officially announces the lynch. I just hope that, if strife IS scum, that xyzzy gets here before strife does. Otherwise, here comes the spam.[/quote]

First off, I'm pretty sure that if a scum were about to die, he'd have spammed. I just honestly can't believe that he wouldn't have realized not to, it's like the most blatantly obvious thing to do once you're at near death.
maxwell wrote:if we play this right, hopefully we can still make it before 250 posts.
No. You're not listening. We can't.
muffin wrote:If coug was scum and chose to flood the game with all his posts then the total would be around 190 since this is only the 106th post meaning scum still dont even get a nk. If i was scum then I would just try to defend myself from being lynched because if I suceed then a townie is lynched which is just as good as a nk if you see what I mean.
Stranger was going to
die.
I'll say it again, I waited till the last moment to switch. There was no more time for him to defend himself. If he was scum, he wouldn't have wasted his posts.

----

Okay, strife's latest posts make me think he's probably town. That said, I still don't think strangercoug is scum.
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Post Post #115 (isolation #16) » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:05 am

Post by ting =) »

Hello all.

I'm having exams now, so I won't be able to check in as much, but I will make sure to post every 3 days.

@mue.
Okay, it was a bad call on my part, I admit. But then, I was being asked for reasons why I did what I did.

@muffin.
No, they can't spam anymore. With one dead, they can't nk unless we reach page 6. I'll go check on everyone's remaining post count when I have the time, but yes, we can avoid the nk with minimal posting now.

@najd-trojan.
It appears I do have the time wrong. I thought I'd switched with 30 minutes to go.
Seems like he tried to save his scummate at the last minute (though he got the timing wrong), and at the same time, tried to pass some strategy to his partner, by talking about how the scum could spam the thread.
I can't deny that it would look that way, but then why would I vote strangercoug in the first place? All I did with putting my vote on him and then unvoting at the last moment was draw attention to myself. Yes, this is wifom, but so is your point.
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Post Post #128 (isolation #17) » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:17 am

Post by ting =) »

max wrote:well, now that we got one scum, we can now, can't we? =P
Yes. It only applied while we still had two scum. I don't have time to find out for sure, but I think we have about 30~50 posts to spare. That's just a guess though.
muffin wrote: If I was cougs scum partner then why on earth would I actually go to the effort to defend him?
Er... come again?



unvote. vote:greencow


My main reason is the bit of my post that strife quoted. When I first voted strangercoug, I thought the two might be linked.

I thought, and still think, that ice and max are town. Given the stuff that just happened, I'm fairly sure that strife is town.
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Post Post #139 (isolation #18) » Sun Jul 13, 2008 9:12 pm

Post by ting =) »

posting to not die.

still like my cow vote.
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Post Post #143 (isolation #19) » Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:21 pm

Post by ting =) »

i think muerrto was right, the scum hadn't thought of it. that makes not spamming a null tell. especially now that it's out in the open.
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