Open 768: C9++ [GAME OVER]
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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i was going to replace into a50's slot but deliberated too long, which bothered me initially because then i'd have to read a50 if i replaced in later but this replacement means i guess this slot doesn't need to be policy lynched
(unless you think i deserve a policy lynch, i guess)-
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northsidegal Survivor
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anyways when i skimmed back then i came out thinking that norwegian and egix were pretty solidly town, and scumleaning the worst-
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northsidegal Survivor
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well i recently finished a game with egix where we were scumpartners (and i played pretty terribly) and i remember that one of his problems there was his reticence to take any sort of strong stance. that was one of the first things that i looked at in his ISO when i skimmed before, and it felt like he was definitely making reads pretty freely.
why are you and the worst (from what i've read) scumreading him?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i don't have a read on you or skitter and i looked at the most recent votecount to check if there was a player called "spicy" or something in this game. so that should give you an indication of where exactly i'm at-
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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i'm scum because of how much effort i put in before i replaced in?
anyways i'm going to try to read a lot more before really forming any sort of comprehensive argument but i am fairly certain that egix is town and that the push on him is misplaced. i'm also preliminarily somewhat confident that the worst is scum-
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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haha 20 new pages wheee
now i remember why i'm washed up. every time i convince myself that i can do it just for one game and every time i prove myself wrong.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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when i say "he didn't take any stances" in that game i mean like he took likeIn post 1838, the worst wrote:@nsg i don't think i've seen egix take any strong stances here except that i'm scum after i heavily prompted the exchange. :/no stances. even his declaration of "skitter town" among the first few posts in his ISO i found enough to be notable, so that's kind of what i'm talking about here-
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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DDL said somewhere that he thought i was good at reading A50 – in the first place, it's probably beenat leastover a year since i've played a game with a50, and i honestly cannot recall reading him in a game except one where he was on an alt and basically already dead and another where i knew he was scum via mechanics. that's just the history that i want to clear up – not an attempt at some kind of pre-emptive excuse or something.-
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i'm aware that i need to towntell sooner rather than later and so in the interest of doing so quickly and also to maybe help me get over whatever complex i have where i feel like i have to read the entire thread and enter as if i'm a lawyer with some full case built up (and thus will inevitable end up flaking on the thread to avoid the pressure), i'm just gonna spitball here pretty hard. expect thought spam
likely town:
skitter
egix
norwegian
scumleaning:
the worst
unsure: (literally everyone else)
Menalque
teacher
Emperor flippyNips
Nibbui
Almost50
Wickedestjr
Bingle
DrDolittle
associations i'm aware of:
worst, skitter nibbui pushing wickedest (interestingly, skimming nom's ISO, doesn't seem like much of a wagon has ever formed)
{ceejayvinoya, Wickedestjr, Menalque, teacher, Nibbui} made up the worst's wagon at it's peak (skitter's not here?)
skitter scumreading bingle
just realized i haven't unvoted form my predecessor
UNVOTE:-
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northsidegal Survivor
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@duck, somewhere between 1300 and 1408 you went from (what seems to me) hard scumreading skitter to coming around to her being town. what changed? when i read that whole interaction between you two, it really didn't do you any favors. a lot of your arguments came across as pretty disingenuous, so i'm inclined to think that your pushback there died down mainly because skitter's push on you died down and you didn't particularly feel like poking that bear with a stick when you could just let sleeping dogs lie and skate by for a bit longer, if you'll allow me to mix my metaphors for a moment.
gonna do some quotes of that back and forth between you to to get my thoughts out there.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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so this is a point that you tried to push skitter on and this is her position:
seems perfectly reasonable to me. in fact, even in games without serial killers (which, by the way, lame that that's a possibility in this game. kinda forgot that that could be a thing in c9++) you'll often see things like "i think there's at least one scum between x and y but they're probably not aligned" or "i think x and y are both scummy individually but i don't really see them being aligned". i feel like what skitter is saying here is pretty much the exact same thing? correct me if you think i'm mistaken there, but that's how it feels.In post 1296, skitter30 wrote:i'm not explicitly sorting for sk so much as i have two players that i don't believe are town and are probably not aligned. that still means one of you is mafia
now, it's been a while since i've been pushed as town (and indeed i'm pretty out of experience regardless) so i'm going to have to largely go with my imagination here, but if someone were pushing me with this logic, i feel like i could understand where they were coming from even if their actual scumread on me was misplaced.
instead, you respond with this:
i'm kind of conflicted as to what i should even call this, but i don't feel like it's coming from a place that you truly believe. if i were town in this situation, i don't think i would be saying "if you think that one of is is scum and the other is sk you should let us live so that we kill each other". it doesn't even seem like an attempt to catch someone you think is scum out on a logical contradiction – you say in your very next sentence "lynch scummy slots as per usual" which seems like the kind of thing that skitter is trying to do if she thinks that the people that she's pushing are not town?In post 1298, the worst wrote:
if the dichotomy is valid allow that we have to remove each other from the game. lynch scummy slots as per usual, what you're trying to do doesn't improve town ev.In post 1296, skitter30 wrote:i'm not explicitly sorting for sk so much as i have two players that i don't believe are town and are probably not aligned. that still means one of you is mafia
the dichotomy isn't valid btw i'm sickeningly aware that i'm town
i mean, the sum total of what you seem to be saying here (and especially the last line) is just "i am definitely town", which doesn't feel good to me. i haven't done as comprehensive of a read of your ISO as i typically like in any game or as i have in previous games where i've known you're scum, but what i can tell you is that from what i have read i have not seen anything that would put you as town – anything more than the sort of "treading water" real-time chatting with people about reads that i know you can and do use as a big part of your scumgame.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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with that said, going to take a moment to go give some more people hats-
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that's enough hats for now, hopefully.
i'm not really saying that it's scummy for you to have pushed skitter in the first place or even for the strength of your push – what i am trying to say is that i believe your push on skitter was not real, both due to the arguments that you made and due to the timing of your dropping your push on her. saying that you don't resent yourself for "pushing her slightly harder than it made sense to" i feel is something of a non-sequitur to what i've been saying, but admittedly it's possible i haven't been expressing myself in the clearest manner.In post 2322, the worst wrote:sorry, I think 2319 is basically my stance on that - I don't really resent myself for pushing her slightly harder than it made sense to - yes indeed her reaction was town indicative
what do you think scum!duck is trying to do here? I'm missing something between your observation and your conclusion
regardless, that's likely enough from me on that specific subject, at least for now. even if you are scum and skitter is town i'd say i'd be well served by at least making an attempt to look at other slots in the game. i'd feel satisfied even if my only contribution to this game before dying would be to tunnel your hypothetical scum slot to death, but i think i'd feel better if i at least made some semblance of an effort to try to solve other slots.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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("enough hats for now" and other lies we tell ourselves)
anyways, one more thing on that subject that i did forget to mention there – what i think scum!duck was doing that was just attempting to defend against skitter's push on you. from what i can tell this was right around the point in the game where you were the largest wagon, so i'm not sure that just ignoring it was exactly something you could get away with, and if you did i can't imagine that skitter would do anything but sink her teeth in further (not sure why all the metaphors i'm coming up with for skitter all seem to paint her as some kind of scumhunting animal, but i suppose it isn't too off the mark..? it's meant to be a compliment, at least).
i think you know that skitter sometimes changes her mind even on somewhat strong scumreads if you engage her enough and/or in the right way and so i don't think it's accurate to say that what you were doing that has no scum motivation or is impossible to see as coming from scum.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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why i think you're scum probably most has to do with my last line in 2320.In post 2325, the worst wrote:I see why you're confused but have no idea why you come out thinking I'm scum.
In post 2320, northsidegal wrote:i mean, the sum total of what you seem to be saying here (and especially the last line) is just "i am definitely town", which doesn't feel good to me. i haven't done as comprehensive of a read of your ISO as i typically like in any game or as i have in previous games where i've known you're scum, but what i can tell you is that from what i have read i have not seen anything that would put you as town – anything more than the sort of "treading water" real-time chatting with people about reads that i know you can and do use as a big part of your scumgame.
uh, i know this is not really the best thing to say but i would honestly rather people didn't read that game. i'm not proud of it. not that i'm going to stop you or ask that you don't or anything.In post 2326, the worst wrote:Could you link the Egix game you're hot metaing off? I wouldn't mind having a read if I feel like efforting something.-
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well, we could have a philosophical discussion about whether people should start as townreads and require scumtells to lower them or start as scum and require towntells to elevate them or something in the middle, but in your case i have you as scum because:In post 2330, the worst wrote:re. interactions/low presence I agree I'm not outside of my scumrange but again don't see how my contributions equal me being net more likely scum than town.- you are playing in a way that you have played as scum before
- i don't believe that you've done anything to truly towntell
- i didn't like your conversation with skitter and do believe that it should be taken as a scumtell
so what exactly are you saying you'd have done as scum here differently than what you did?In post 2331, the worst wrote:I'm mulling over the "defending from skitter's attack" thing -- I know it's not valid and I have a suspicion skitter/I are aware that I could manufacture a more valuable read on her than this -- but I'm also not sure if I'd expect you to think that
not a disrespect thing; very specific past game experience
I'm diving down the self meta hole smh maybe I am scum irl.
do you think that i'm scum? how likely do you think it is that i'm still scum in this game?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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there's something about "i could manufacture a more valuable read on her than this" that bothers me. maybe this is kind of a misguided "slip-seeking" newbie way of thinking, but it feels wrong to me. are you saying that you could manufacture a read on skitter that would be more realistic than your (presumably) actual real read, or what exactly are you saying?-
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reading the first 25 posts of his iso i'd say he's probably scummier than he is towny, but i don't exactly have a good metric for his scum play versus his town play.In post 2340, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Northsidegal what is your read on Teacher? Do you only see him as null?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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@teacherwhat was the last game you rolled scum in?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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think this is probably +town for empIn post 1477, Emperor flippyNips wrote:I’m soooooo far behind. Can anyone just give me a quick synopsis-
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northsidegal Survivor
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just so people understand where i'm at – for now i am pretty much not at all considering the possibility of norwegian or egix scum.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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{nsg}
{norwegian, egix}
{skitter, menalque}
{emperor}
{nibbui, wicked, ddl} - null
{a50, bingle}
{teacher}
{the worst}
if i'm wrong on anyone above null it'd be menalque, his is a preliminary placing-
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northsidegal Survivor
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pretty annoying honestly that there's a 50/50 chance of only being two groupscum-
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northsidegal Survivor
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well, in the first place i'd like to clarify that my position on you is not "his content places him at neither town nor scum", my position on you is that i don't have a position on you yet. not one of my own, at least. i recognize that it seems most everyone else in the game townreads you and that's certainly something i won't ignore.In post 2352, Nibbui wrote:I've to get to work very soon so maybe I'll sudden stop replying NSG, but can your explain that null read on me and DDL?
Duck already said it but your trajectory here is more likely town than not but if you're town here I might need to take back the "NSG can read me" thing?
besides that, when have i ever read you other than micro 801 where i largely got you off of partner interactions?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i was looking at replacing in earlier when ceejay was up for replacement and i wanted to replace in because of my townreads on egix and norwegian. it didn't have anything to do with ceejay's slot, and in fact i don't think i've evenIn post 2355, the worst wrote:so kinda shitty to ask but we've established I'm scum irl and yolo
you wanted to replace into a50's slot?seena post from him in this game yet.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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uh, go ahead. fair warning, i can't say that i really care that much about gamestate reads at all unlessIn post 2357, the worst wrote:
I have a pretty strong gamestate read but it's shitty to out and I'll only do it if nobody will respondIn post 2353, northsidegal wrote:pretty annoying honestly that there's a 50/50 chance of only being two groupscumverystrongly reasoned and/or backed up by some kind of data (in my head i'm thinking of how a scum lynch d1 in a micro indicates scum off the wagon, but i'm not sure that would even count as a gamestate read, so whatever)-
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both of those games i have successfully expunged from my memory, so you'll have to excuse me. i probably did have confidence reading you in upicketypicketypick (whether or not that confidence was warranted i think is probably up for debate)
regardless, that game was nearly a whole year ago now and i would say that i am significantly more out of practice (and, to not mince words, probably significantly worse) than i was back then.
so you're unlikely to be hearing any displays of confidence from me anytime soon. even still, this is all just talking around the fact that i don't have a read on you yet. does that bother you?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i don't know why you seem to be taking offense to the fact that i don't have a read on you yet. as i've said – my position is not "nibbui is null because his content isn't indicative one way or the other", it's "i don't have a position on nibbui yet".
you are the most prevalent poster in a nearly 100 page game that i have replaced into while on V/LA. can you excuse me if i haven't exactly ISO'd you yet?-
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you're starting to bother me, to be honest. on a personal level i don't appreciate your telling me how disappointed you are in me and how you expected better from me just because i'm not townreading you yet. do you want me to lie and say that i am? i'm hestitant to repeat the exatc same point i just made regarding how i do not have an opinion on you yet, but it doesn't seem to be getting through to you.
i also have yet to truly read DDL.-
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objectively, it's fairly unlikely – when i've been given the serial killer role before i've played equivalently to my scumgame.In post 2368, Nibbui wrote:actually NSG being SK isn't unlikely but i think it's going to crosskill if that's the case
i'm also rolling my eyes at you not-town-reading me because i put you at null.-
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I haven't attempted to read you yet.In post 2372, Nibbui wrote:I just thought we were better in reading each other.-
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the bad thing is i would actually be really okay with a lynch on teacher but going off of my last few games there's a serious chance i don't live to tomorrow and so if the worst is scum that's a pretty high priority thing to take care of
although maybe i can trust that skitter would be able to take care of that? would like to hear her thoughts on that subject before the day ends-
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northsidegal Survivor
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my take on whatIn post 2512, Bingle wrote:
I'm more interested in nsg's take, tbh.In post 2507, Wooper wrote:i absolutely hate playing soloscum
also haven't been rolling scum a bunch lately
viewtopic.php?f=56&t=78023
lategame replace in, didn't need to do much to win but did it
viewtopic.php?f=56&t=79367
replace in d1?? d2?? set to stomp until SOMEONE vigged half of our team, i was one rosterfoster off sneaking into a 3p i had a chance of winning
viewtopic.php?f=56&t=77970
probably my strongest scumgame to date /o\-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i think you're good as scum regardless of whatever your winrate may be. it's the exact same thing that i think about shoshinIn post 2538, Wooper wrote:
i think whether you'd expect more from scum!me atm and like my competency level and stuffIn post 2536, northsidegal wrote:my take on what-
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northsidegal Survivor
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as for how my thoughts on your competence as scum translate to this game, shrug? i can't say that i can really think of some connection between those two ideas.
i don't think i'm really one who cares much for "i'm better as scum than to be doing so and so" unless backed up by some specific self-meta, i guess, although maybe there are exceptions.-
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shrugIn post 2545, Bingle wrote:Specifically, how big a deepwolf threat he is. You seemed concerned by it earlier.
i mean, going purely based off of past performance and scum ability he's probably among the top of the playerlist alongside skitter, you and a50 (maybe nibbui?)
i don't currently scumread skitter and i have more personal reasons to scumread him than i do you, so i guess you could consider that the origin. i might have a bit of a complex regarding things like this, blame mariaR-
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northsidegal Survivor
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oh sorry, i noticed you saying hi but i was typing another response
did you want to talk about something-
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what do you think of teacher scum skitter
(also i finished your wizard avi if case you were unaware)-
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i know that somewhere within probably my last 15 posts i mentioned not caring much for non-strongly reasoned gamestate reads
but i get the feeling that the scumteam is either piling on a50 or there is a non-insignificant amount of crossbussing happening-
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with what separates those two scenarios being whether or not a50 is scum, i guess.-
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well, obviously any point that could be made there will carry some actual weight given some flips rather than the conjecture that it stands as right nowIn post 2579, skitter30 wrote:Idk i put a lot of sway into gamestate reads, i agree that scum is prob piling onto him rn-
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In post 2580, teacher wrote:Have you been in a game where both the D1 wagons have been on scum bag? I mean for real? I haven’t. I’ve seen scum get lynched D1 +rand (one benefit of the newb queue), but the implicit assumption of that feeling is ... unlikely, ya?-
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i've also modded enough games where a scumteam was essentially all caught individually d1 and immediately resolved to cross-bus which ended up carrying them a significant amount farther into the game that i consider it a very serious possibility.
i've seen it enough times that it's a quote i put on my wiki page to remind myself.A scumteam caught early on will push each other down to stay afloat. Don't be quick to clear people for being a counterwagon to scum or for having been voted by scum.-
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one thing that pinged me with regards to bussing as a means of staying alive longer was bingle's questioning of wooper starting around 2410
but before i go into that i'm gonna respond to something i missed previously and saw just now looking through his iso
here's what i didn't read before replacing into this game: the game in its 60-70 (at the time, if i recall correctly) entirety, blatant scum's ISO in any sort of depth.In post 2218, Bingle wrote:
You mean this, right before she said she didn't actually read before replacing in?In post 1804, northsidegal wrote:well i recently finished a game with egix where we were scumpartners (and i played pretty terribly) and i remember that one of his problems there was his reticence to take any sort of strong stance. that was one of the first things that i looked at in his ISO when i skimmed before, and it felt like he was definitely making reads pretty freely.
Yeah... color me unconvinced.
here's what i did read: egix and norwegian's ISO's enough for me to be confident enough in them being town to warrant replacing into this game. i like replacing into townslots, it's true, but far more often i'll replace into games because i already have strong reads – i don't like to be completely lost replacing in. you (and some others) should know this to be a fact given my replace-in to innocent evil people – i had A50 as lockscum and a prety good handle on the setup and tried replacing in as soon as i could. it was a lot more about that then it was about me thinking cheeky (whom i replaced, for the unaware) was town.
that's all in the past. here's what's in the present: i am still confident that egix is town. i think it's a fairly sound read and i have more than a single game of "hot meta" to justify this, although it's not necessarily something i can discuss.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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(haha, wow. i decided to check just for curiosity—it was exactly 15 posts from this one.)In post 2577, northsidegal wrote:i know that somewhere within probably my last 15 posts i mentioned not caring much for non-strongly reasoned gamestate reads-
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it's entirely possible. i don't think he has good associatives with the other slots that i consider the scummiest.
i'm not sure whether i should be happy and confident in myself given that we seem to be on the same page, or concerned that i've come to the exact same conclusion that i know you've come to previously.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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why do people like responding to things i say with just "hmmm"-
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northsidegal Survivor
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Anyways, on the subject of why I'm not a fan of Bingle's posting beginning around 2410:
This is his readlist starting at post 2221:
Spoiler:
Take particular note of the bottom of the list, starting at the worst down.
Then, starting at 2410, we have questioning and the pursual of perceived contradictions from the worst, consistent with his previously stated reads:
Spoiler:
However, 2426 is where things become notable to me:
This kind of downplaying of the worst's ability as scum seems strange to me. Granted, off of the top of my head I can't say that I have hard evidence to indicate that bingle is directly contradicting any of his previously stated views regarding the worst's ability, but my general impression was that most people on the site would consider him in the upper echelon of scum players. I believe it stands to reason, then, that what he's doing here serves some sort of larger purpose, and this is where I begin to see your point that they may have partner equity. It's perhaps an obvious (generic, even) conclusion to come to that by designating the worst as a "lower priority" scum target, he may excusably be kept alive until later days while other targets are lynched.In post 2456, Bingle wrote:Is wooper high priority? I've never seen him be especially good at scum. Also, I think his likeliest partner is skitter, so...
And, indeed, strangely enough just a few posts later in his ISO we see not only a divergence from the worst, but also from his previously stated second highest scumread:
Spoiler:
To be clear, if my understanding of this post is correct, Bingle is quoting his previously stated reason for teacher being scum while simultaneously calling into question other people's reasons. That's obviously a biased way of phrasing it but I don't think it's entirely inaccurate.
So we're at a point where Bingle is somewhat indirectly downplaying the scumminess of some of his top scumreads. Immediately after this, he says that he "could be convinced" on A50 scum and then, without much convincing (by my reading), he joins the wagon alongside his previous second highest scumread while also expressing reservations about lynching the worst.
Spoiler:-
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northsidegal Survivor
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Anyways, you don't have to take all of that as some paranoia-fueled full-scumteam call, or even as strictly partner associations.
What I do think it should be taken as—at the very least—is that something strange is going on with Bingle's reads, and it seems to me like there is some sort of agenda behind many of his actions.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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In post 2603, pisskop wrote:i suppose I can be bothered to read, though it doesn't look like we're close to a lynch?
i'd say we're on the precipice of a lynch. if we aren't then i think we really should be, with two days on the clock.In post 2606, Bingle wrote:A few different L3 wagons, but no, not particularly.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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So yeah, that's what got me along the line of thinking of cross-bussing as a means of staying alive, among other things. If some subset of {bingle, the worst, teacher} is scum, the sort of balance of people hopping from one of those wagons to the A50 wagon seems to me to follow closely whether or not they believe it can actually go through today and how hard they want to bus.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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would you really go along with "let's sort each other day 2"?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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just to clarify, with all of that on this page being said, i still would rather lynch one of {teacher, the worst} today with a preference for the worst
a lot of what i've said about bingle can be viewed from a higher level as "he shares my scumreads but is being really weird about a lot of his scumreads", and there's an outside possibility that most of that is just general weirdness rather than scum-indicative weirdness. if i were to know for a fact that, say, both the worst and teacher were town, that would recontextualize a lot of his actions i think.
so i don't think bingle first is optimal ordering.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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would still appreciate your last scumgame teacher-
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