Open 769: Venrob's PYP X/Y (Town Wins)


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Post Post #143 (isolation #0) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:15 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

VOTE: Nomx3

I don’t like her setup spec at all, and then sheeping the SS vote after the setup spec nonsense got called out doesn’t feel very nice. I also didn’t like her response to Frost’s vote.
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Post Post #144 (isolation #1) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:18 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Glancing through the thread I don’t feel great about Skitter either. I think frost is Town atm. Flubber seems Town as well. Null on everyone else atm.
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Post Post #145 (isolation #2) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:18 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Oh yeah, slight scumread on Suj as well.
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Post Post #148 (isolation #3) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:30 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 146, Sirfetchd wrote:
In post 143, Luca Blight wrote:VOTE: Nomx3

I don’t like her setup spec at all, and then sheeping the SS vote after the setup spec nonsense got called out doesn’t feel very nice. I also didn’t like her response to Frost’s vote.
Fairly sure nom explicitly stated not really understanding the spec, so this seems hella contrived. :/
It wasn’t that she didn’t understand it, it’s more the ‘what would Mafia be more likely to do’ type thing that doesn’t sit well with me. This not only shows herself in a better light due to her apparent ignorance of the setup but also is a waste of time.

For what it’s worth I also haven’t really digested the setup yet. I’ve been very busy recently and picked my numbers after a second’s thought.
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Post Post #150 (isolation #4) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:36 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

How do I know it isn’t a lie? And even if it’s truthful, harmless setup spec is more ‘convenient’ for scum than Town.
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Post Post #152 (isolation #5) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:48 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Why is it most likely one of the most truthful posts in the thread so far?

And as I said I also haven’t digested the setup myself, but I don’t feel the need to indulge in such discussion when I can find out more information on the wiki. And as I said already, it wasn’t the initial ‘I don’t understand the setup’ which I found scummy, it was the ‘what would Scum do’ which pinged me.
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Post Post #155 (isolation #6) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:57 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

There is no burden of proof on me for a couple of reasons: 1) I’m not saying Nom is definitely lying, I’m saying that there’s nothing to say she isn’t lying. 2) she could be scum regardless of whether she is lying.

Why would Scum lie about not understanding? Because in such a setup where scum can secretly discuss it amongst themselves and Town can’t, it appears more townie and innocent to not understand. Someone, maybe it was Nom I can’t remember, even suggested this possibility later on.

I don’t feel like ‘getting info on the table’ in terms of setup spec is helpful. I feel is allows scum a safe avenue into the game. It’s not like Nom is a newbie, there’s no reason to be so trusting of her already.
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Post Post #156 (isolation #7) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:04 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 99, nomnomnom wrote:
In post 97, PMysterious wrote:Late to the party, but this is why I chose a number other than 1. I didn't even know what numbers were considered draft numbers.
Here's a theory:
Do you think that scums were more likely to understand that rule? They had a PT, they probably had a talk before choosing and they probably asked what the numbers meant since it's easier to ask that in a PT, rather than send a message to the mod, correct?

That means that people that make a nonsensical choice in terms of numbers have more chances to be town, while the people that have optimized numbers have more chances to be scum. That is unless scums are one step ahead, but yeah. That seems like a decent theory in my mind.
This is the post that pinged me. She’s suggesting scum more likely to understand the setup after having said herself that she doesn’t understand the setup. This would give her clear motive to lie about her lack of understanding, so the question remains: why are you trusting her so implicitly?
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Post Post #159 (isolation #8) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:15 pm

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In post 157, Sirfetchd wrote:My main issue is that you are arguing that if nom is telling the truth then they should have shut up and lurked.

Which is the completely wrong thing to do. If nom really wanted a safe way in to the game by setup speccing, that's what would have happened, no?
Once again, it wasn’t her initial comment that I found scummy. It was a comment that could have come from either alignment. She could have been lying, she could have been truthful, I don’t know. Not discussing the setup doesn’t mean she would have had to lurk unless she discussed it though, as I am myself proving.

I still don’t get why you trust her so deeply. Is she incapable of lying about such a thing as scum?
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Post Post #254 (isolation #9) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 7:06 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

The fact my reads let others know my thoughts as a starting point towards reading me means, by definition, they added something to the conversation. They weren’t really deep or contentious, but they didn’t need to be. My read on Nom however was contentious, so you can’t have it both ways.
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Post Post #256 (isolation #10) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:53 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 208, skitter30 wrote:
In post 143, Luca Blight wrote:VOTE: Nomx3

I don’t like her setup spec at all, and then sheeping the SS vote after the setup spec nonsense got called out doesn’t feel very nice. I also didn’t like her response to Frost’s vote.
agree
In post 144, Luca Blight wrote:Glancing through the thread I don’t feel great about Skitter either. I think frost is Town atm. Flubber seems Town as well. Null on everyone else atm.
In post 145, Luca Blight wrote:Oh yeah, slight scumread on Suj as well.
do tell on all 4 of these ^
They weren’t based on a great deal, just my early feelings. You’re starting to seem townier than you were in the previous game, however. I will expand more on my reads as the day progresses, still catching up a bit.
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Post Post #283 (isolation #11) » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:53 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Nom, I don’t think you explained your Flub scumread? If not, could you do so please.
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Post Post #303 (isolation #12) » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:31 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I have a slight scumread on Billy. Glancing through his iso he appears at first glance as being somewhat proactive and is putting his vote where his mouth is, but when you dig a little deeper his pushes have been for really easy, obvious things, and has been over explaining things a bit to pad out his posts.
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Post Post #304 (isolation #13) » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:38 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I maintain my slight scumread on Suj as well. I feel like he’s playing mediator and at times devil’s advocate, without really getting his hands dirty.
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Post Post #305 (isolation #14) » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:44 pm

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In terms of townreads I’m struggling atm. Frost is still my biggest Tr but it’s just a feeling I’m getting more than anything. I liked how Flubs started the game and hopefully he will continue to stay involved this game so I can read him better. Skitter is now a slight town read, similar to what Nom said - she feels different this game. That’s also a reason why I SR Nom, however - I could easily TR her from the start in the last game but it’s not happening so far. I have an inkling Fetchd might be Town, but again it isn’t based on a great deal. Maybe his stubbornness is making me feel he’s Town, I’m not sure.
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Post Post #310 (isolation #15) » Sat Oct 26, 2019 1:06 am

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m also confused as to who is hard scumreading SS? Unless I’m missing something, the only one to call SS ‘obvious scum’ was Xayah herself.
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Post Post #367 (isolation #16) » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:44 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

When Frost was scum in a previous game he was very guarded and held back. This game resembles more his Town game - getting stuck in and having more fun. I still think he’s Town.
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Post Post #368 (isolation #17) » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:49 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 339, rb wrote:I think Luca is entirely wrong about most of their reads

i am bothered
Obviously we disagree about Frost, but could you elaborate on the others?
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Post Post #370 (isolation #18) » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:55 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m not getting many Town vibes from rb’s opening to be honest. Being casual but in a manner that looks a bit forced. The ‘sex numbers’ thing looks contrived to show he hadn’t conferred with anyone about it/thought too much about it. I can see why someone might scumread Frost here, but his push seems a bit rushed. His Kerset push is Ok, though. I could see that slot being scum, but i don’t want to lose sight of Nom when she has done nothing yet to make me reconsider my read.
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Post Post #371 (isolation #19) » Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:03 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Frost, are you still sr’ing Skitter?
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Post Post #378 (isolation #20) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 5:21 am

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 373, rb wrote:@Luca: opinions on Kerset, since they're now the largest wagon in the game?
I had just said a few posts before that Kerset is a slot that I could see being scum but I don’t want to lose sight of Nom atm. Speaking of which, what do you think of Nom?

And could you also answer my question in ?
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Post Post #379 (isolation #21) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 5:34 am

Post by Luca Blight »

It feels weird how after I’d apparently convinced Fetchd I was scum he has completely stopped pushing me and is now voting someone else. I initially thought he was being a stubborn townie, but now I’m starting to think he never believed in that SR in the first place.
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Post Post #380 (isolation #22) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:16 am

Post by Luca Blight »

SS, you’re the second-highest poster in this game and yet I hardly know where you stand on anyone. Can you give a quick overview of your reads?
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Post Post #451 (isolation #23) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:03 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

The only thing that seemed townie about Kerset was their very first post. Everything regarding actual gameplay has been underwhelming, but there’s so many dubious slots in this game that I’m reluctant to throw my hat into that ring right now.

It’s good to see Nom getting more involved but I’m still not feeling those townie vibes, I can’t quite put my finger on it.
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Post Post #452 (isolation #24) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:05 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I agree with what Skitter has to say about rb and his questions struck me as manipulative also, but I also agree with Nom that Kerset comes off worse in that exchange.
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Post Post #453 (isolation #25) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:13 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I wanted to townread Xayah after their decent looking opening posts, but i can see that slot being scum as well. Their activity level of popping up every now and then and then dropping back into background for a considerable time pings me. Their comments about SS seem disingenuous as well, as if she was testing the water for the wagon and then absolving herself of any blame/responsibility for it by claiming she over-blew her read and is surprised others hard SR SS, which didn’t even happen. I don’t get her current stance of maintaining her Frost ‘push’. It feels like an easy way to not take a hard stance on current issues by sitting on an easy wagon.
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Post Post #458 (isolation #26) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:16 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Fetchd, why have you stopped pushing me since I convinced you I’m scum?
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Post Post #468 (isolation #27) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:32 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Fetchd, thoughts on rb v Kerset?
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Post Post #480 (isolation #28) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 3:22 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Xayah, regarding your Frost read it feels ‘easy’ because it’s a slot that is generally suspected in this game and can therefore can be sat on while looking meaningful. I don’t feel like you’re seriously pushing the lynch, nor do I feel like you’re continuing to sort Frost. He’s been involved a fair bit recently with the rb/Kerset interaction and is taking hard stances, so you’re original reasons for voting him no longer hold water, so I would have expected an update on why you still think Frost is scum.
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Post Post #483 (isolation #29) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 3:31 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Frost, are you still sr’ing Skitter?
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Post Post #503 (isolation #30) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 3:55 pm

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I’m starting to feel a bit better about Nom after her recent posts. I’m really torn about rb v Kerset, both of them seem dodgy for different reasons. I don’t see their interactions being s v s but I think t v s is quite likely. As I said before about Kerset, his opening post felt really townie when he voted Frost with early conviction, but since then there has been nothing good. Rb’s entrance felt contrived and I agree that he’s been manipulative. His push on Kerset has certainly been his best work and I can see his angle. I think I’m leaning slightly towards Kerset being the more likely scum, everything considered.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Kerset

On a side note, I’m feeling more wary of Flubs now he’s taken a backseat since he was suspected. Hopefully he can get himself more involved again.
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Post Post #506 (isolation #31) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 4:46 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Fetchd, has your read on Frost changed at all after his recent posts?

You’re calling for meaningful wagons, but are not making any meaningful contributions yourself.
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Post Post #508 (isolation #32) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 5:35 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m still confused about your read progression on me. You went from being convinced I was scum to seemingly brushing your read under the carpet and forgetting about it. Do you still scumread me, or are you no longer voting me because there isn’t enough interest in my wagon?

And what happened to you Skitter SR?
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Post Post #516 (isolation #33) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:53 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 510, rb wrote:hot take: luca is scum and kerset and I are both town

or more collaboratively: suppose i was wrong about kerset, and we were both town. how would the rest of you feel about Luca's angle on our slots?
How about you state your points against me instead of attempting to elicit reasons from others?
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Post Post #524 (isolation #34) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:41 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Rb, I’m not sure if you’re confusing me with someone else but I can only remember playing with you once before (where you were scum) and that was ages ago.

I feel like my play has had more direction that most so far this game. The fact of the matter is I’m really struggling for townreads and have a lot of minor scumreads, which explains why I’m not pushing heavily in any one direction as I’m still in the sorting stage. I don’t think today’s Lynch necessarily has to be you or Kerset, I just wanted to put my vote someone where is would be useful for the time being at least.

Regarding Flubs, once again he isn’t a massive scumread, hence why I’m not voting him. I liked his start and want him to remain involved in the game so I can read him better.
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Post Post #525 (isolation #35) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:47 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

And I don’t see how I was ambivalent about your entrance - I straight up stated on a few occasions that I didn’t like your entrance. It felt contrived to me.

I also said I thought your Kerset push was decent, and your recent posts in general have a more townie feel to them.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #36) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:50 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

This question is becoming a little dated now, but I’m still curious about it, so if you wouldn’t mind....
In post 368, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 339, rb wrote:I think Luca is entirely wrong about most of their reads

i am bothered
Obviously we disagree about Frost, but could you elaborate on the others?
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Post Post #530 (isolation #37) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:18 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

The only game I recall playing with you was mini 1991, in which I remember wrongly townreading you early on for a similar casual style of play.

Regarding Nom, I had an early scumread on her based on the setup talk and what seemed to me like feigned/overplayed ignorance, and partly meta due to the fact I could easily townread her early on in our previous game which hasn’t happened here. Her recent posting has picked up a bit which is why I unvoted, but I’m still not getting massive Town feels from that slot.

A person of interest for me right now is Fetchd. I’m not sure i fully believe what he’s saying about his reads on me and Skitter. Until I questioned him about it i had assumed he no longer scumread me as he hadn’t mentioned me for ages, but when questioned he maintained it and made a pretty weak excuse for why he pursuing his scumreads. I feel like it would have been natural to see some progression in these reads either way, but this doesn’t appear to be the case.

Thoughts, rb?
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Post Post #531 (isolation #38) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:21 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

For why he isn’t pursuing his scumreads*
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Post Post #534 (isolation #39) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:55 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Oh yeah, that reminds me. Why do you townread Billy?
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Post Post #536 (isolation #40) » Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:11 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

What other reads do you have, Wooper?
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Post Post #653 (isolation #41) » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:20 am

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 607, skitter30 wrote:
In post 601, skitter30 wrote:
In post 596, rb wrote:which town games did you see before?
Mini 2101 i think, it ended like two weeks ago, the one sky/tw modded

Incidentally i was scum there, but i'm not sure that's particularly relevant to the subject at hand
If anything i think he's being townier here than there

He only wasnt mislynched there cuz i faked an inno on him
I don’t think I was ever close to being lynched in that game, inno or not.
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Post Post #654 (isolation #42) » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:28 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Glancing over Kerset’s meta, I also agree it is like night and day to this game. I’m feeling more confident in my vote now.
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Post Post #657 (isolation #43) » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:49 am

Post by Luca Blight »

@Kerset: what other reads do you have aside from rb?

@Billy: it would have been a very unusual first interaction between Kerset/rb to be s/s. Unusual things can happen in Mafia but I think both rb and Kerset being scum is highly unlikely.
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Post Post #679 (isolation #44) » Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:17 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Kerset wasn’t under any pressure at all until after rb’s entrance, to be fair.
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Post Post #701 (isolation #45) » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:35 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Frost, has your read on rb changed at all?
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Post Post #703 (isolation #46) » Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:41 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Do you not think he makes some fair points against Kerset?
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Post Post #709 (isolation #47) » Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:19 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

My opinion on Suj hasn’t changed. I think he’s been playing it safe the whole way through and is careful not to get his hands dirty, so a scum-lean for me.
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Post Post #710 (isolation #48) » Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:32 pm

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Rb, why do you Townread Billy?
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Post Post #733 (isolation #49) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:47 am

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UNVOTE:

VOTE: Billy

I’ve got a bit of experience playing with billy and I think this is his scum game. I don’t believe his push on Skitter here - it looks like he’s being pedantic and making a mountain out of a molehill rather than having that’s actually alignment-indicative at hand.
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Post Post #735 (isolation #50) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:03 am

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In my previous game when we were both Town I was able to correctly read Billy for the most part despite others suspecting him, because he was curious, game-solving and had direction to his pushes. In his scum game he sat back more and got bogged down in minor details like he’s doing here. His questions this game feel pretty pointless for the most part as well.

I’ve played with Town Billy at least 3 or 4 times before and have been able to correctly read him every time. His Town game is good.
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Post Post #736 (isolation #51) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:16 am

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His Skitter push reminds me of his push on me during his scum game:

Spoiler:
In post 712, Billy Pilgrim wrote:
In post 632, Datisi wrote:Mainly post
I think I had commented at the time that I felt like scum!Icon wanted a sheep, but then went back to pushing me after people started voting me and accusing him of being my buddy?

Mainly his catchup to my reads and discussion, but he's still a firm null
Holy shit alot of stuff happened today. I miss one day at work and there's like 150 posts.

I quoted this because I now see what happened. I got the timeline wrong. I think is the origin of my confusion regarding Icon's push. Tchill talked about 3 votes on Datisi. In fact there was only ever 2. Tchill and Icon. While Luca consistently read Datisi as scummy and put doubt on her, he wasn't voting her.

The whole thing started when Icon cased Emperor in 227, which had early traction until tchill let the air out of the Emperor push and then tchill voted Datisi in .

Almost comes into the game catches up and votes Kop. Then at Icon votes Kop. After that Icon then seems to shade Luca a bit because of the Datisi scumread then signs off on it because of the lurking at posts 330 and 331. Datisi comes out with her reads list then Icon goes back to Kop at (all of this takes place within an hour). For the next 20 posts Luca and Icon ratchet up the pressure on Datisi and Icon switches his vote back over to Datisi. Then Icon hops back over to Kop after reading the Datisi/Icon/Luca situation as potentially all town. Datisi then votes Kop at . All that happened within 5 hours of the original call out for lurking. Kop goes up to L-1. Tchill calls out the kop votes and calls for more pressure on Datisi. So then there's some time where the votes are sitting on Kop then the replacement request happens. Then Emperor votes Datisi for there to be 2 votes there. Now Luca votes Datisi at . And it's immediately after he expresses skepticism of Icon for switching his vote off Datisi back at post 371. Then Icon votes Datisi. This entire current wagon built up from 1 vote to L-1 in under a page.
I'm most skeptical of Luca here. I don't see what changed from when he was shading Datisi the first time Icon ran the wagon to this time. I was looking at Icon/Datisi and I missed the person who was sitting mostly on the sidelines. I think when it got more likely, specifically when Emperor hopped on, now he felt he had more cover and came in as the middle vote.

VOTE: Luca



Pedit: as I was typing this monster I saw a luca vote from A50. So this is now L-2


Wordy and overly focused on minor details. It doesn’t feel like real scumhunting, which he exhibits in his Town games.
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Post Post #739 (isolation #52) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:27 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Kerset, I suggest voting someone other than rb, because rb isn’t being lynched today.
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Post Post #747 (isolation #53) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:41 am

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@SS: I think he does it to a lesser extent, but doesn’t allow himself to get bogged down by it. He’s a lot more flexible as Town and will not rest his view on the game on something so insignificant.

@Kerset: there’s no way rb gets lynched over you today. He’s been one of the few productive Town players and is never getting lynched D1 when there are so many low-content/dubious slots. I advise you to pursue one of your other scumreads.
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Post Post #748 (isolation #54) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:56 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Here’s an example of a D1 Town Billy push from his last Town game that I was in:

Spoiler:
In post 268, Billy Pilgrim wrote:What happened to Garmr?

Here's where I'm at. We're in a pretty low activity game state. This works real well for scum because it breeds apathy. It also doesn't help town sort much. I'm kinda lost. Kraeg came in hyper aggro. I don't read that as scummy but others were. I think what I found a lack of effort on reads from that slot was a problem.

@Norwegian - why is Kraeg scum. Is it just that he accused you of taking us out of RVS? And if that's why, why is that enough?

I don't have a strong candidate at the moment, but I think Mohab is my preference. Sheeped the Kraeg wagon. Then hopped onto Garmr saying it felt like caught scum. Then just left and went back to Kraeg. I feel like that's the worst vote all game so far so thats where I wanna be.

VOTE: Mohab


He does reference past events but not in such an overly accurate, nit-picky way, and his approach just seems a lot more natural.
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Post Post #760 (isolation #55) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:07 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 756, Xayah wrote:Hm, the Billy wagon isn't bad. Not my first choice from my notes but the information is good enough for me to join
VOTE: Billy
What other notes do you have?

What do you think of Kerset? It pings me how you’ve just ignored this slot considering the attention it’s received.
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Post Post #762 (isolation #56) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:16 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I think Billy is scummy regardless of the meta. His play lacks substance and his questions appear ‘for show’ rather than having any meaning. This is very different to his last Town game I experienced and much closer to his scum game.

Problem is I there are so many other scummy individuals in this game as well.
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Post Post #770 (isolation #57) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:35 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

It’s so refreshing to see an updated vote count.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Kerset

Because the wagon does have a bad feel to it. I think SS could be Town but the other three on the wagon are all scum-leans of mine.
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Post Post #774 (isolation #58) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:36 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 769, Kerset wrote:
In post 760, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 756, Xayah wrote:Hm, the Billy wagon isn't bad. Not my first choice from my notes but the information is good enough for me to join
VOTE: Billy
What other notes do you have?

What do you think of Kerset? It pings me how you’ve just ignored this slot considering the attention it’s received.
473 I think that she gave the most eloquent read.
There’s been hundreds of posts since then. I expect updated opinions on suspected slots.
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Post Post #782 (isolation #59) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:52 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m not really feeling Skitter as scum this game.

I think rb, Nom, SS and ‘tentatively’ Skitter are Town. The only thing that makes me doubt Skitter is her defence, or rather lack or suspicion, of Kerset. Her general play hasn’t pinged me as it did last game (when she was scum).

Literally any of the remaining players could be scum. Even Frost I’m coming to doubt a little more, as I don’t get him maintaining his rb stance, though we’ll see what he says upon his re-read.
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Post Post #792 (isolation #60) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:02 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 785, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 782, Luca Blight wrote:The only thing that makes me doubt Skitter is her defence, or rather lack or suspicion, of Kerset.
What's concerning about it?
I find it difficult to relate to. I agree with rb that Kerset doesn’t necessarily feel like ‘new town’ and I’d have expected Skitter to be a bit more open to that Lynch.
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Post Post #794 (isolation #61) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:08 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I’ve also been inclined to give those at the top of the list a bit more leeway, which is why I’m not pushing Fetched as much as I might have. It makes sense keeping the certain pr’s alive until at least D2.
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Post Post #799 (isolation #62) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:14 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I agree with rb’s points. You lack townie play - i don’t get the feeling you’re actually trying to find scum. Most of your posts are questioning things related to yourself in a passive way. Your SR on rb seemed like pure retaliation. Your meta is a lot different to your previous Town games. I think you’re a good D1 Lynch for sure.
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Post Post #804 (isolation #63) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:20 pm

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I think it depends on your level of investment in the game, but i agree that scum are more likely to ‘forget’ their previous stances and opinions, which is why I suspected Fetchd when he suddenly went from being convinced I was scum to leaving me alone completely and voting someone else. That didn’t feel like a natural progression either.
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Post Post #809 (isolation #64) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:29 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

A lack of flailing can itself be a defensive method through reverse-psychology.

It reminds me of a previous game when A50 was scum who refused to scumread anyone and even said ‘you should lynch me today as I’ll be no use in LYLO’. It worked as he wasn’t lynched that day and scum ended up winning.
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Post Post #812 (isolation #65) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:34 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I just realised Skitter is still voting rb.

Do you really think rb is the best Lynch for today? I find that hard to get my head around.
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Post Post #813 (isolation #66) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:45 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I don’t like Pm’s entrance or vote either. Meta isn’t the main point against Kerset - it’s a supporting point. Rb scumread Kerset before he ever looked at or mentioned their meta.
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Post Post #823 (isolation #67) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:21 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I sense that Billy isn’t the bussing type, so I don’t think he and Skitter are partners, but I would like to know exactly who Skitter wants to be lynched today.
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Post Post #825 (isolation #68) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:25 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Kerset - if you continue to only talk about things related to yourself then you will end up lynched, I’m pretty sure. If you are Town then try to focus on finding scum. If you don’t at least display some level of scum-hunting then you’re not giving me the chance to townread you.
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Post Post #829 (isolation #69) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:35 pm

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Just so we’re clear, what exactly has Kesert stopped doing after being called out on it, Nom?
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Post Post #832 (isolation #70) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:49 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 751, Kerset wrote:
In post 749, Billy Pilgrim wrote: @Kerset, I only have experience with Skitt as a mod, so I dont know what I make of the rest of her play. It feels curt and snippy, but that could be NAI.
Early game is the least indicative phase but for some reason you make your SR based around that. If you have at least mediocre confidence that he is scum, you should be able to read him farther. Especially someone with 140 posts like Skitter.

*sigh* VOTE: Billy
What’s with the *sigh* before voting Billy? Are you voting him reluctantly or something?
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Post Post #841 (isolation #71) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:20 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Nom, how are you reading Skitter atm?
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Post Post #845 (isolation #72) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:27 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Yes I agree about Xayah. Based on interactions I’m leaning against Kerset and Xayah being partnered together, but based on play there’s a decent chance at least one is scum. I can’t justify unvoting Kerset until they show me something of a townie mindset, however.
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Post Post #854 (isolation #73) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:56 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Kerset, I’m still curious about this:
In post 832, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 751, Kerset wrote:
In post 749, Billy Pilgrim wrote: @Kerset, I only have experience with Skitt as a mod, so I dont know what I make of the rest of her play. It feels curt and snippy, but that could be NAI.
Early game is the least indicative phase but for some reason you make your SR based around that. If you have at least mediocre confidence that he is scum, you should be able to read him farther. Especially someone with 140 posts like Skitter.

*sigh* VOTE: Billy
What’s with the *sigh* before voting Billy? Are you voting him reluctantly or something?
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Post Post #855 (isolation #74) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:06 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 848, Kerset wrote:
In post 825, Luca Blight wrote:Kerset - if you continue to only talk about things related to yourself then you will end up lynched, I’m pretty sure. If you are Town then try to focus on finding scum. If you don’t at least display some level of scum-hunting then you’re not giving me the chance to townread you.
The main topic of this game is previous game analysis. Its hard to deeply participate in this, when you haven't played with suspects and shallow shading is looked upon. I feel that its actually initial reason of my wagon(?). Meantime the other topics are spec/mech talk and me, so i don't think that i can artificially create a case to talk about. If there was any non PGA lead that i missed feel free to correct me.
You are free to create your own topics.

Glancing at your meta, you actually have played with your suspect, Billy, before. You were both Town in that game, how does he compare here?
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Post Post #857 (isolation #75) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:11 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

So you didn’t really believe in the reasoning you provided along with the vote, then?
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Post Post #861 (isolation #76) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:41 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Ok, can you summarize your reasons for why rb should be today’s Lynch?
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Post Post #949 (isolation #77) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:01 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Spoiler:
In post 868, Billy Pilgrim wrote:I'm having posting problems so near with me:

@Luca on 762-
Man, I was thinking you were town earlier, but now I'm not sure. I think I've lynched actual scum maybe 3 or 4 times in my multiple months playing here. And I drove the bus on one of them and it was based on how the player sheeped a vote on D1. In all my late day plays I guess wrong on who the last scum is. And you described my town game as good? What are you talking about? I think you happened to see that newbie game where I got Spangled but that's literally the only time I got scum right. So for you to characterize my town game as good feels wrong. TW and Kerset were in a game where some of the dead people thought I was obvtown, but I dont even do a good job of that when I'm trying to play that way normally. Now Luca, that point about my questions feeling shallow, I've heard that one before, and its during my town games. How were they shallow though? I was looking forward progressions and giving people a chance to explain inconsistencies. If I was looking to just jump on it, couldn't I have hopped on Aaron?


Not finding scum every time doesn’t mean your town play isn’t good. I feel that the way you’ve approached the game in your town games is much better than the scum game and this game. In the newbie game you made yourself obvtown and were killed N1 as a result. In the Jackal mini game you were suspected more but you were game-solving in a much more flexible and transparent way, which is why I townread you throughout. In your scum game you were a lot more like this - falling behind and feeling more distant - not actively trying to solve the game like in the other mini game. You were townread due to the tests, but your overall play was not on the same level as your Town game.

As for your questions, I don’t think I used the word ‘shallow’? I believe I called them pointless, which is slightly different. I don’t think they’re of any real consequence to what’s happening for the most part, such as when you asked me ages after the event why I thought Kerset/rb wasn’t svs. It felt like a question for the sake of it rather than having any game-solving intent behind it.
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Post Post #952 (isolation #78) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:09 pm

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Why not try pushing your ‘confident scumread’ before writing off your chances of getting them lynched?
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Post Post #954 (isolation #79) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:12 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Self-meta is worthless. You’re always going to say you’re playing differently from your scum game regardless of your alignment, as we’re seeing with Billy as well.
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Post Post #956 (isolation #80) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:13 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

And why exactly do you want Frost lynched?
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Post Post #959 (isolation #81) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:16 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

‘If I’m scum who is it with?’

Btw that’s a really stupid question for D1.
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Post Post #960 (isolation #82) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:18 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Nom, I was curious to see Xayah’s reasoning without you answering for her.
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Post Post #965 (isolation #83) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:24 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Nom, you said if Frost flips scum then Kerset is definitely scum as well? Then why not just lynch Kerset?

Is the opposite true as well?
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Post Post #974 (isolation #84) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:37 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 964, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 959, Luca Blight wrote:‘If I’m scum who is it with?’

Btw that’s a really stupid question for D1.
It's a town question though. Who asked it?
Xayah.

I’m not so sure it’s a town question though - it reminds me of how I used to play as scum. If you can’t logically prove that I’m scum then you have no right to vote me.
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Post Post #977 (isolation #85) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:43 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In isolation there’s nothing wrong with it, but when used as a defence I think it is sketchy and a bit disingenuous: she’s creating a lose-lose situation for anyone who suspects her, as it’s almost impossible to answer on D1.

Xayah, maybe I’ll throw it right back at you. Who is scum with Frost and why?
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Post Post #982 (isolation #86) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:50 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I could answer the question, but it would be pointless doing so on D1. I don’t think you’re scum with Frost, possibly Billy as well, but any of the other dubious slots are possible.
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Post Post #988 (isolation #87) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:54 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 984, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 977, Luca Blight wrote:Who is scum with Frost and why?
Don't fight dumbness with more dumbness.
I just wanted to see if she thought it was a reasonable question when put to her.

For the record I’m also not looking to Lynch Xayah today, I’m just trying to sort the slot. I’m going to consider the case on Frost now.
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Post Post #1011 (isolation #88) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:25 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1010, nomnomnom wrote:Xayah flips green please go on Aaron or Kerset.
What’s made you reconsider your Xayah read/suspicion?
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Post Post #1018 (isolation #89) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:01 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m still thinking Frost is Town. If he’s scum then he’s massively improved from his first scum game where he couldn’t push anyone to save his life. I definitely prefer a Kerset Lynch over him.
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Post Post #1027 (isolation #90) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:12 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Spoiler:
In post 969, Kerset wrote:
In post 842, nomnomnom wrote:I admit I am still confused that Billy out of all people in this playerlist is getting wagoned. It just feels so random, so much of an easy target to go after, the guy had barely any content and people went after him on day 1 with people making extremely dodgy posts. I still don't understand. I think that the wagon is extremely bad and probably has scum in it. I can't comprehend how people went to the conclusion that Billy was a good lynch. Even if you forget Kerset there are a lot of people worthy of scrutiny that got off relatively easy and I think that is no coincidence.
People vote Billy - you are mad that we ignore other potential scum.
In post 843, nomnomnom wrote:In fact if I was to look at this wagon and point at someone who I think is scum I'd definitely vote Xayah here.
Then you suggest Xaya

Now you are mad because people vote her, even that we still got 3 days left.


My first reaction to this was that it’s a surprisingly good point from Kerset, but then I realised that it’s just a passive observation/shade and they aren’t really endeavoring to solve the game at all.

Kerset, what is your read on Xayah?
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Post Post #1029 (isolation #91) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:17 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 935, Kerset wrote:
In post 934, nomnomnom wrote:Guys what are you doing? Are we going to ignore dodgy players just like that?
I could agree to pressure Suji, if you are interested.
This is something I can agree to. Nothing from his iso makes me think he’s Town and he’s been delaying his catch-up repeatedly.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Suji
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Post Post #1030 (isolation #92) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:18 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1028, rb wrote:what's your preferred lynch today Luca?

kerset?
I could go for Kerset, Billy or Suji. I’m feeling inclined to give Xayah another day.
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Post Post #1033 (isolation #93) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:25 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1032, Sirfetchd wrote:
In post 1030, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 1028, rb wrote:what's your preferred lynch today Luca?

kerset?
I could go for Kerset, Billy or Suji. I’m feeling inclined to give Xayah another day.
Don't feel obligated to respect egos.
It’s more due to:

1) the fact she’s a bit nearer the top of the list, and I think it makes sense to leave the likely pr’s for D1 when dubious slots further down the line exist

2) I feel like she’s someone who can be read easier going forward, which doesn’t necessarily apply to someone like Kerset and Suji

3) if she’s scum then she’s playing badly, so I’m willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for now as an experienced player. D2 she needs to step it up, however.
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Post Post #1035 (isolation #94) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:38 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I can’t interest you in a Suji wagon, Nom?
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Post Post #1037 (isolation #95) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:47 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Not just a lurker though - someone who, despite having a decent number of posts, hasn’t done anything that looks Town all game and has been playing it safe throughout. When it’s come to the business end of the day he has begun to lurk and has repeatedly delayed his catch-up, which could be tactical given the lack of time on the clock.

3 days is still enough time to put some heat on this slot. If he posts something half decent then I’ll happily switch back to Kerset.
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Post Post #1060 (isolation #96) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:29 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Does no-one agree that we’re better off lynching someone less likely to be a Pr on D1?
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Post Post #1061 (isolation #97) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:42 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Still not getting any Town vibes from Billy.
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Post Post #1065 (isolation #98) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:51 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Yes, but I feel pr’s are more valuable to the town than to scum during the first night or two at least. I’d rather lynch Billy or suji who are likely either going to be scum or VT than risk lynching a town pr on D1.
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Post Post #1075 (isolation #99) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:21 am

Post by Luca Blight »

After reading Frost’s iso again I strongly feel he is Town and should definitely not be lynched today.
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Post Post #1077 (isolation #100) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:24 am

Post by Luca Blight »

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Billy

I think this is the optimal Lynch today. I can elaborate on why Frost is Town later when I have time.
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Post Post #1082 (isolation #101) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:32 am

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 933, nomnomnom wrote:rb tell me why Aaron tells us he has interest in voting in Kerset or Xayah yet decides to park his vote on Xayah, a player that has no votes on her, instead of a person that has 4 votes on him.

pedit: what???
I don’t see how this is so terribly scummy, and it seems a bit disingenuous to say he ‘parked’ his vote, which implies he had no intention of moving it when he never said this himself.

I can relate to such a position where I have multiple scum reads and will just have more of a feeling about one of them, regardless of the vote count.
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Post Post #1083 (isolation #102) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:40 am

Post by Luca Blight »

It’s slightly worrying that both Nom and Skitter are voting Frost based on such weak reasoning.
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Post Post #1085 (isolation #103) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:48 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Pm, are you fully caught up?
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #104) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:03 am

Post by Luca Blight »

You should vote someone relevant.
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Post Post #1163 (isolation #105) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:52 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I could really use more regular vote counts, but it seems as though it’s coming down to Xayah v Frost, in which case I’d vote Xayah.

Any chance of going back to Kerset?
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Post Post #1169 (isolation #106) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:06 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I might link specific examples in a bit but Frost has been playing as a townie - he’s been pushing his reads, unafraid to get his hands dirty, Willing to adapt and reconsider where necessary and has defended himself appropriately - with reason and sense but without getting too aggressive or flailing too hard. He’s also playing so very differently to his previous scum game where he just sat on the fence the whole time and wasn’t able to push anyone, that I think such an improvement in his scum game would be highly unlikely in such a short time frame. His game does resemble more the Town Frost I’ve seen. He’s also been wagoned way too easily for my liking - the reasons against him are poor.
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Post Post #1171 (isolation #107) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:14 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I like his tone around page 44 - I believe he is the main wagon at this point but is still expressing his point in a calm, reasoned manner (even though the opinion he is expressing of lynching regardless of PR’s doesn’t help himself atm, a likely pr).

Frost is maintaining his view despite the pressure. He could have gone on Billy or Kerset which would have been easier going, but he seems to genuinely want the Xayah Lynch.
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Post Post #1172 (isolation #108) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:16 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Posting without thinking about it too much - is that more likely town or scum?

Go and read his scum game and you’ll see how opposite that description is.
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Post Post #1175 (isolation #109) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:54 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Kerset
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Post Post #1177 (isolation #110) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:53 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Wooper, please don’t try to portray Billy as a newbie - that’s the reason he was townread in his previous scumgame, for passing a couple of reaction tests no-one believed he was capable of as scum. He’s a fast learner and very clued-up, don’t underestimate him.

When I’m on a computer I’ll make a scum case against Billy, because I do still believe he is scum.
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Post Post #1179 (isolation #111) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:18 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

He’s been defending Billy a bit with his recent posts though (by saying we should lynch regardless of the list) when he could easily have voted him or at least kept the option of voting him more open. Obviously they could both be scum together, but I just think the case against Frost is really weak anyway.
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Post Post #1180 (isolation #112) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:28 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Actually I can only phone post until next week, so not sure if I’ll be able to give a full Billy case. I’ll see what I can do, though.
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Post Post #1185 (isolation #113) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:31 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1093, rb wrote:yes maria, your lack of any content that isn't just you defending yourself is supremely scummy

because your focus is blatantly nothing but actually staying alive
This is actually a good point.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Xayah
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Post Post #1188 (isolation #114) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:44 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Xayah, you haven’t done anything in your recent posts apart from defend yourself. I’m not seeing any game-solving from you.

My reads on Pm and Flubs are null.
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Post Post #1190 (isolation #115) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:51 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Ok, can you run me through your reads, then?
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Post Post #1192 (isolation #116) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:08 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I’d like to know your thoughts on just about everyone really. Can you just give a sentence on how you feel about every player?
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Post Post #1195 (isolation #117) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:34 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I have to say the Xayah wagon has a townie feel to it.
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Post Post #1197 (isolation #118) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:48 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I get your reads for the most part. I don’t get why you only suspect Frost primarily for asking pointless questions when Billy has been guilty of the same thing?

And like the fact that you’re using meta for to hard-Tr SS, I’m doing the same with Frost. Look at his previous scum game and see how different his play is. I’m having a hard time believing he could improve so much as scum in a short time frame.
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Post Post #1198 (isolation #119) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:04 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Although you did vote Billy earlier, so fair enough I guess. I feel like Billy has been far more in the shadows than Frost though, who has been transparent by comparison. I also hate Billy’s iso wall post on Xayah, it feels like fake scum hunting. He usually scum hunts through interactions, not like this:

I’m just gonna stock with my biggest scumread.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Billy
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Post Post #1200 (isolation #120) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:20 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Billy is hiding behind walls, asking pointless questions and generally playing it safe. He’s also nitpicking on small things and making them out to be bigger than they are, for example: the Skitter incident where she forgot she hadn’t voted suji, and me calling him a good town player, which he disagreed with and reconsidered his read on me based on, even though I believe I’ve complimented him on his Town game previously.

During the Jackal mini game he was getting his hands dirty, asking relevant questions, not afraid to express unpopular opinions etc. He was more generally scumread as a result, but I could see the townie mindset. This game is like his scum game - always staying behind the pace of the game and making long, information filled posts rather than actively interacting and sorting players.
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Post Post #1203 (isolation #121) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:36 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

These are very recent games we’re talking about though, and if Billy is Town here then his game has changed for the worse unfortunately. His reads weren’t good in the Jackal game but his approach was very proactive.
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Post Post #1205 (isolation #122) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:46 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I have some experience of getting reads on particular players like this. A while back there was a new player called UcVoyager who played maybe 5 games with me and was scum in at least 3. In every scum game I could read him like a book on D1 and pushed relentlessly for his lynch until it happened. He thought I was just tunneling regardless but I could clearly see differences between his Town and scum game. I feel similarly about Billy here.
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Post Post #1206 (isolation #123) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:48 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

It doesn’t have to be a vanity wagon. I believe we can push this lynch through.
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Post Post #1207 (isolation #124) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:52 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m actually not a big fan of meta generally myself, but when i experience such differences in play style as one alignment to another then it cannot be ignored.
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Post Post #1208 (isolation #125) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:03 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I believe Wooper defended Billy earlier with: ‘why would Scum Billy drop his Luca townread when Luca is generally townread’

And the answer is to discredit my opinion. Of course as scum he’d like to plant the seed of doubt in people’s minds that maybe the guy that’s pushing him isn’t Town. And it’s not like he did anything with his read or committed anything either way - quite the opposite, he just said he now isn’t sure about me.

I agree with SS that to change your read on someone based on saying they’re a good town player doesn’t seem sincere.

And don’t think of Billy as a newb - he had plenty of people fooled in his last scum game because they underestimated him.
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Post Post #1214 (isolation #126) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:15 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Rb, Xayah’s reads are pretty decent, are they not?

I think it explains her position of defending herself as opposed to game-solving, as she’s happy with the Frost wagon. It’s not optimal town play, but I don’t get the feeling she’s scum atm.

I think billy is the best lynch today. I’d be lying to myself if i voted anyone else.
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Post Post #1218 (isolation #127) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:21 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Town: Frost, SS

Town-lean: rb, Fetchd, Nom, Skitter

Null: Wooper, Pm, Flubs

Scum-lean: Xayah, Suji, Kerset

Scum: Billy
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Post Post #1227 (isolation #128) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:29 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Ok, I’m willing to compromise on this one.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Xayah
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Post Post #1232 (isolation #129) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:31 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m not sold on Skitter being Town but I definitely don’t want that Lynch today.
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Post Post #1237 (isolation #130) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:36 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1229, rb wrote:i'm okay with this

opinion on Billy sirfetchd?

i got townvibes from his opening posts =|
I hate to keep bringing up meta but the reason he was townread in his previous scum game was because he made some jokey opening posts which apparently newbscum wouldn’t make and he passed a reaction test by making out he thought scum had day chat when they didn’t. Apart from that none of how actual work looked Town, same as here.
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Post Post #1251 (isolation #131) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:59 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I normally hate such arguments as ‘I wouldn’t play like this as scum’ but I can actually see this one; she probably would have been more self-aware as scum. I feel like giving Xayah the benefit of the doubt for now.

I’m still up for a Kerset Lynch if no-one wants Billy?
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Post Post #1252 (isolation #132) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:05 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Xayah, who would be your second choice for the lynch?
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Post Post #1254 (isolation #133) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:14 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

@Mod
- can we get a prod on Suji? He’s been inactive content-wise for more than 4 days now.

@Xayah - if you vote Billy then I’ll join the wagon as well.
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Post Post #1257 (isolation #134) » Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:29 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Billy
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Post Post #1278 (isolation #135) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:40 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I have to say that 72 hours per prod seems too high, especially when prod dodges are seemingly allowed.

I’m a little confused as to why Frost is so against the Billy lynch. I think even independent of meta he looks very suspect due to the way he is approaching the game, and the fact this is far from his usual town play style supports this. Do you have any reason to think Billy is Town?
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Post Post #1290 (isolation #136) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:07 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Yes, everyone who hasn’t voted either Xayah or Billy please do so. Let’s not leave this until the last minute.
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Post Post #1296 (isolation #137) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:43 am

Post by Luca Blight »

I notice Suji’s been active onsite since his prod and yet hasn’t even bothered to check-in here.
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Post Post #1297 (isolation #138) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:53 am

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m starting to wonder if it’s a deliberate tactic to a) avoid being lynched and b) fly under the radar during the N1 actions, as people are going to be less likely to target someone they believe has flaked.

Whatever his alignment, it sucks.
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Post Post #1307 (isolation #139) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:27 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I don’t get Suji’s no-vote. Why not either vote Billy, your bigger scumread, or make a push for Kerset, your biggest scumread?
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Post Post #1315 (isolation #140) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:51 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

That’s the hammer.
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Post Post #1328 (isolation #141) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:30 am

Post by Luca Blight »

I believe Nom was the main opposer to the initial Billy wagon, and pushed it onto Frost again for what I considered to be poor reasoning.

Frost was also protecting Billy in a way which was a little strange, however. He wasn’t particularly townreading Billy so even before the flip I found it strange how much he was protecting him. I need to do some more digging but atm I think there’s a good chance one of these are scum.
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Post Post #1332 (isolation #142) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:33 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Xayah gets some townie points. She was keen on the initial Billy wagon and was quick to agree with me on wagoning Billy late D1.
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Post Post #1333 (isolation #143) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:34 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Yeah I still think Frost is probtown, but it’s given me pause for thought.

Nom is the more likely scum of the two. Her Frost push was bad.
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Post Post #1336 (isolation #144) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:42 am

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m not lynching you just yet, but your reaction/opposition/whatever you want to call it to the initial Billy wagon does look bad, and you were uncharacteristically quiet at the end of the day, but of course maybe you were busy.

Why are you happy with lynching Frost already? There are still other dubious slots in the game - what about them?
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Post Post #1337 (isolation #145) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:45 am

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1335, nomnomnom wrote:I have a good feeling that perhaps scum was on that wagon late for townpoints. Just an intuition.
That wouldn’t surprise me at all. I still have no positive feelings about Suji, for instance.
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Post Post #1340 (isolation #146) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:56 am

Post by Luca Blight »

I need to do more reading, but right now I’m happy to put my vote on Nom. I was already suspecting her after the Billy flip and her opening to D2 makes me feel even worse about her - her tone is that of scum who feels they are up against it.

VOTE: Nom
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Post Post #1341 (isolation #147) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:59 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Nom, what’s your read on Kerset?
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Post Post #1344 (isolation #148) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:07 am

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m certainly still going to assess everyone else in the game, I just feel you have the most scum equity at the moment. Yes, I could possibly be wasting my time barking up the wrong tree, but everyone else could say the same thing. I’m confident in a few of my townreads, but you’re not one of them, and thus you require sorting.

I feel like as Town you’d have come out in a more positive frame of mind, not thinking about being lynched already.
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Post Post #1346 (isolation #149) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:11 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Kerset, who are you scumreading now rb is dead?
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Post Post #1348 (isolation #150) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:24 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Kerset, I wanted the Billy lynch all along - it was only due to the fact that no-one else showed interest in the wagon that I was willing to compromise. If you look back, I was the one who initiated the wagon by offering to join it if Xayah switched her vote.
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Post Post #1350 (isolation #151) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:28 am

Post by Luca Blight »

I was actively pushing the Billy lynch. I wasn’t actively pushing any of the other wagons. Billy was always my main suspect ever since his push on Skitter.
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Post Post #1352 (isolation #152) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:33 am

Post by Luca Blight »

You admitted yourself that you feel up against it, which is itself a negative feeling, no?

You’re obviously not openly pouring out the negativity, it’s just the vibes I’m getting under the surface. You’re not showing the kind of mindset id expect from town after scum was lynched D1.
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Post Post #1353 (isolation #153) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:46 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Just going by the interactions with Billy, I *think* Suji is Town.
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Post Post #1354 (isolation #154) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:54 am

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 665, Billy Pilgrim wrote:I dont like the rb wagon right now. My read came around on that. Aaron isnt a bad vote at the moment, but I think Kerset is the best chance for scum at the moment. Their weird interaction upon rb's entrance. The vote on rb after rb was scumreading them. The poor reaction to pressure. Theres not anything really townie in the iso.

VOTE: Kerset

@S_S I'm confused why Skitt looks worse after a town Kerset flip. Care to explain? I dont generally do pre-flip associatives but I'd like to know where you're coming from.
This vote made Kerset the main wagon at the time. kerset is probably Town.
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Post Post #1355 (isolation #155) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:02 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Skitter is Town, if that still needed pointing out. SS I’m pretty sure is Town as well.
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Post Post #1356 (isolation #156) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:06 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Billy/Nom/Fetchd scumteam would make sense.

Still some slots that need sorting, however.
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Post Post #1358 (isolation #157) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:12 am

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1084, PMysterious wrote:
AaronFrost wrote:I'm gonna ISO Billy. I did feel a little sketched out by him but I don't exactly remember why.
I just read through Billy's ISO. It seems fine to me. Sure, he's not likely a power role, but granted, there doesn't seem to be anything that says he's scum, at least in my point of view.
In post 1086, PMysterious wrote:
In post 1085, Luca Blight wrote:Pm, are you fully caught up?
I'll be going back and forth with catching up and discussing the current issue at hand. Like I said, I don't see any issue with Billy, but granted, I will need to look at the context of each important post he made.
PM looks sketchy as well.
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Post Post #1359 (isolation #158) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:14 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Yes, I agree with you on that, Kerset.
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Post Post #1362 (isolation #159) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:29 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Nom, do you agree with the townreads I specified above?
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Post Post #1387 (isolation #160) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:50 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1375, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 1355, Luca Blight wrote:
Skitter is Town
, if that still needed pointing out. SS I’m pretty sure is Town as well.
Mind walking me through this read? I'm still unsure about skitter.
Skitter’s interactions with Billy make her Town.
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Post Post #1394 (isolation #161) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:32 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1383, PMysterious wrote:
In post 1358, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 1084, PMysterious wrote:
AaronFrost wrote:I'm gonna ISO Billy. I did feel a little sketched out by him but I don't exactly remember why.
I just read through Billy's ISO. It seems fine to me. Sure, he's not likely a power role, but granted, there doesn't seem to be anything that says he's scum, at least in my point of view.
In post 1086, PMysterious wrote:
In post 1085, Luca Blight wrote:Pm, are you fully caught up?
I'll be going back and forth with catching up and discussing the current issue at hand. Like I said, I don't see any issue with Billy, but granted, I will need to look at the context of each important post he made.
PM looks sketchy as well.
Alright, I'll bite. Sketchy because I didn't see anything wrong with Billy's ISO? Or sketchy because I didn't know the context? Either way, since Billy was Mafia, I'm willing to admit I was wrong on my deduction. It just means my intuition isn't the best and I'll need to work on it. That's all.
It was a soft defence, which looks bad considering you did nothing else all day apart from lurk and sit on a vanity wagon. You also didn’t follow through on your intention of analyzing Billy’s posts.

I’d like to hear your thoughts/reads. I assume you’re full caught-up by now?
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Post Post #1420 (isolation #162) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:19 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Suji, when I made my initial comment about you not voting Billy was still L-2, so your vote wouldn’t have been the hammer at that point. Due to your lack of activity i wasn’t sure if you were intending to vote or planning to disappear again until D2.

Regarding your point about activity, I think it’s fair to say you’ve been scumread this game for both activity and content. That said, you’re probably Town only due to the Billy interactions.

This is a pacy wagon, but it feels pretty townie. I want to hear from Flubs tho - I saw him online a while ago so I’m surprised he hasn’t at least popped his head in to say hi.
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Post Post #1430 (isolation #163) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:27 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Activity can be scummy if someone is repeatedly delaying their catch-up, as you were D1. Obviously you might have just been very busy for about 5/6 days, but it could also be a scum tactic.

I described why I found your content scummy on D1 - playing devil’s advocate, not getting your hands dirty, playing it safe while looking somewhat useful. These are typical scum behaviours. As I said, however, I think you’re Town atm.
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Post Post #1454 (isolation #164) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:11 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Town: Skitter, SS,
Lean Town: Suji, Xayah, Frost, Kerset
Null-Town: Wooper
Null-scum: Flubs
Scum-lean: PM, Fetchd
Scum: Nom

That’s roughly where I’m at right now
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Post Post #1466 (isolation #165) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:14 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

One thing perhaps in Noms’ favour is the fact that she and Billy both had 4 as their first draft number, though I’m still not entirely sure what to make of that right now.
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Post Post #1483 (isolation #166) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:08 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1049, Billy Pilgrim wrote:I decided that I want to look at everyone's iso to catch up. Dont know how much I'm gonna get to immediately but hopefully in the next 24 hours I will have re-read. I'm gonna go in ascending post order.

PMysterious- 3 posts. Really only one post of content where he voted rb. And the given reason was that he felt that rb's reason that Kerset had changed playstyles was NAI.

This slot is 36 hours away from prod range again, and the last time they got prodded, they posted to let us know they'd catchup, then waited 24 hours to give us that one post.

This slot is bad, but we should be able to deal with this through prs in some way.
Possibly a townie point or two PM’s way?
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Post Post #1484 (isolation #167) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:14 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Flubs

I think the time has come to put this slot in the spotlight. He started in a lively fashion but has notocably faded into the background since his change in playstyle was highlighted/suspected. He is currently lurking, and I don’t believe him and Billy interacted or even mentioned each other at all on D1.
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Post Post #1486 (isolation #168) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:37 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Just a few posts after I vote Billy to make him joint leading wagon, Flubs comes in and votes Kerset to make her the leading wagon again. Then the only time he mentions Billy all of D1 is to say he can’t find any obvious scum points in his iso. This is a very subtle but at the same time forceful form of defence.
In post 741, Flubbernugget wrote:VOTE: kerset
In post 744, Flubbernugget wrote:Iso dive on billy doesn't give any obvious scum points
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Post Post #1487 (isolation #169) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:45 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1485, Wooper wrote:
In post 1483, Luca Blight wrote:Possibly a townie point or two PM’s way?
"this slot is prolly scum but let's not pressure it"
unfortunately not sure that's something billy wouldn't think to post as pmys' buddy :/

flubs wagon is fine
I was more thinking of the ‘pr’s can sort him’ line - would Billy want to put his partner’s name
in the thoughts of the pr’s?

It’s not a foolproof theory, but it’s something maybe.
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Post Post #1494 (isolation #170) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:00 am

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m pretty sure rb suspected Flubs as well.
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Post Post #1501 (isolation #171) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:09 am

Post by Luca Blight »

What do you think of my reads, Skitter?
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Post Post #1502 (isolation #172) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:10 am

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1454, Luca Blight wrote:Town: Skitter, SS,
Lean Town: Suji, Xayah, Frost, Kerset
Null-Town: Wooper
Null-scum: Flubs
Scum-lean: PM, Fetchd
Scum: Nom

That’s roughly where I’m at right now
Change Wooper to lean Town and Flubs to lean scum.
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Post Post #1506 (isolation #173) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:55 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Nom, thoughts on Flubs?
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Post Post #1509 (isolation #174) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:01 am

Post by Luca Blight »

It’s not just the lurking, though - look at his posts I quoted on the other page. Just as the Billy wagon grows Flubs votes Kerset to make her the leading wagon again and says he can’t see anything scummy in Billy’s iso. I don’t think he mentions Billy at all apart from this. Looks like a classic subtle defence of a scum partner.
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Post Post #1522 (isolation #175) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:58 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

It’s getting a bit ridiculous now how Flubs still hasn’t checked-in despite having been onsite. Given the context of this game it does feel scum-indicative to me. 72 hour prod timers doesn’t help matters, either.

I suggest more votes on Flubs.
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Post Post #1524 (isolation #176) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:05 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

@Frost: in his previous scum game Billy hardly interacted with his partner at all, maybe just once or twice. He never pushed or voted his partner, which leads me to believe the likes of Suji and Kerset are Town.
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Post Post #1531 (isolation #177) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:45 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Billy/Flubs/Frost scumteam would make sense, actually.
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Post Post #1534 (isolation #178) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:50 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1154, Flubbernugget wrote:Pg 40

Billy and aaron both look like they lynch is converging on them out of apathy in absence of any solid scum cases
This is the second post I’ve seen of Flubs soft-defending Billy and Frost.
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Post Post #1535 (isolation #179) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:54 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1273, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 1251, Luca Blight wrote:I normally hate such arguments as ‘I wouldn’t play like this as scum’ but I can actually see this one; she probably would have been more self-aware as scum. I feel like giving Xayah the benefit of the doubt for now.

I’m still up for a Kerset Lynch if no-one wants Billy?
I'd be willing to compromise on lynching Kerset but I'm not down for lynching Billy today. I think I'll be able to get a better read on him as the game continues on.
This looks bad, just as the Billy wagon was picking up steam. I don’t seen any good reason not to consider compromising on Billy at this stage.
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Post Post #1539 (isolation #180) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:59 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1283, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 1278, Luca Blight wrote:I have to say that 72 hours per prod seems too high, especially when prod dodges are seemingly allowed.

I’m a little confused as to why Frost is so against the Billy lynch. I think even independent of meta he looks very suspect due to the way he is approaching the game, and the fact this is far from his usual town play style supports this. Do you have any reason to think Billy is Town?
It's not so much that I think Billy is going to flip town but more that I think the case against him is weak and mostly meta-based. If I had to make a list of lynch candidates he'd probably be like fourth on the list. If someone were to make a strong case against him then I could be convinced but right now I'd prefer Xayah or Kerset over him.
Says he doesn’t think Billy will flip town but doesn’t want to vote him due to the lack of a good case, but I think the case against Billy was at least as good as the cases against Kerset and Xayah.

The more I look at this reaction, the more it’s pinging me. It’s not a natural reaction to a wagon against someone you aren’t even townreading.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Frost
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Post Post #1543 (isolation #181) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:03 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m still considering those options as well, Skitter. It wouldn’t surprise me if the remaining scum are in that group of Nom/Flubs/Frost.
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Post Post #1546 (isolation #182) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:10 pm

Post by Luca Blight »

Actually I still think Flubs is the best wagon for today. Probably going to need a claim from him to help clear up his slot.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Flubs
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Post Post #1569 (isolation #183) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:10 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Frost, how are you currently reading Flubs and Xayah?
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Post Post #1571 (isolation #184) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:26 am

Post by Luca Blight »

Rb wasn’t scumreading Nom, though.
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Post Post #1572 (isolation #185) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:34 am

Post by Luca Blight »

I’m getting the feeling more and more that Frost is scum after all.
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Post Post #1576 (isolation #186) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:41 am

Post by Luca Blight »

@Frost: What’s your point? I wasn’t the one who said we should look at Rb’s reads - Flubs did and you agreed, yet you’re going after someone he hard townread.
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Post Post #1579 (isolation #187) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:44 am

Post by Luca Blight »

My point was against Frost, not you.
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Post Post #1582 (isolation #188) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:46 am

Post by Luca Blight »

And it doesn’t matter that you changed your tune about Rb because my point was against Frost’s stance, not yours.
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Post Post #1583 (isolation #189) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:47 am

Post by Luca Blight »

In post 1581, AaronFrost wrote:My point is that I want to go through them and see what I can make of it. I don't really remember who rb was townreading tbh.
So now you know Rb was hard townreading Nom does it make you feel less sure about your scumread?
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Post Post #1587 (isolation #190) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:53 am

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So basically you were only going to take Rb’s reads into account if they were convenient for you, otherwise they’re irrelevant.
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Post Post #1589 (isolation #191) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:08 am

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I know it’s not directly what you said, but that seems to be your mindset.

1) You agree with Flubs that we should look at who Rb scumread
2) It’s pointed out that your scumread was hard townread by Rb
3) You then imply that rb’s reads don’t really matter after all

The whole ‘agreeing with Flubs’ in the first place seems like a thing you made up to say something positive about him. You’ve not taken Rb’s views into account at all, so your stance doesn’t seem sincere to me.
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Post Post #1593 (isolation #192) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:30 am

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I’m suspicious of both of you generally, but this particular incident looks much worse on Frost - you’re catching up and changing your mind after realizing you’ve missed certain things. Frost on the other hand looks like he’s just invented a stance and dropped it like a hot potato when it didn’t suit his agenda.
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Post Post #1598 (isolation #193) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:57 am

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What’s the plan if Nom flips town?
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Post Post #1617 (isolation #194) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:49 pm

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These 72 hour prods timers are detrimental to the game, Pm is getting away with not contributing anything.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: PM
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Post Post #1618 (isolation #195) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:29 pm

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Pm has made one meaningful post in about 3 weeks - almost 1.5 game days. Either the prod timers need to be shortened or the days need to be lengthened, because this can’t continue.
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Post Post #1627 (isolation #196) » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:18 am

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I’m still undecided about you but starting to lean a little more to the town-side.

I’m feeling a bit frustrated atm because I have strong scumreads on all of Flubs, Noms and Frost, and it’s hard to put one read above the other atm. Then there’s PM who is basically not playing and is therefore unreadable. Xayah could also be doing a lot more.
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Post Post #1630 (isolation #197) » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:30 am

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Fetchd, any thoughts on Frost and Flubs’ since the latter returned?
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Post Post #1631 (isolation #198) » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:32 am

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And where do you currently stand on Nom @Fetchd
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Post Post #1632 (isolation #199) » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:48 am

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I actually think getting a claim out of Flubs is necessary at this stage given Fetchd’s comments.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Flubs
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