Undertale Semi-Open 1.1 - Snowdin Snowdown

[Oversoul]

I’m not going to be available until Friday. I would rather we did not hammer Xayah yet.

[Chemist1422]

I’m not going to be available until Friday. I would rather we did not hammer Xayah yet.

Acknowledged

[mastina]

Intent to hammer

Why chemist why!

Maybe because the self-vote was basically a scumclaim?

Unless mastina has any more thoughts she wants to get out

I've said everything that I can, save one thing:

[mastina]

I’m not going to be available until Friday. I would rather we did not hammer Xayah yet.

Just make extra sure that you actually hammer BEFORE deadline this time.

[mastina]

Actually, I lied. I do have more to say. Two things, in fact.
First, another point in favor of Oversoul being town:
The scumteam had every opportunity to spare Over soul. I don't mean via the missed deadline mechanic, though that remains true as well.

I mean prior to that.
I was voting to spare Oversoul. Elements was voting to spare Oversoul. Xayah, our confscum, had every opportunity to spare Oversoul and yet chose not to; Oversoul had every opportunity to spare himself but while he did at the very end try to, his vote was too late; he had every chance to spare himself before then though.

So the question becomes, if Oversoul is scum, why didn't the scum, during the DAY, hammer him as the spare? It can't be because, "scum were afraid of him becoming confscum". Why can't it be that? Because nobody would've treated him as the scum in Oversoul/Ginngie/Rakan. I would've considered the scum being Rakan. Others who aren't me would've considered the scum to be Ginngie. Scum would still get their doublekill, too, and could remove whoever they wanted to with impunity, knowing that their spared member wasn't confscum, and could set up a favorable lylo.

So I can't think of any reason why scum wouldn't just spare Oversoul during the day. The closest I can come up with as a reason is a combination of negligence and incompetence, where they just legitimately overlooked the favorable spare until it was too late.

In contrast, if Oversoul is town, there's an obvious explanation for why Xayah didn't hammer his spare: it'd give the town three cinftown, with scum only able to remove one of them.

[mastina]

The second point is Re:Element's case on Over soul. The narrative looks fine at a glance, but there's a critical flaw in the narrative:

It relies on the scumteam planning on a Xayah spare qr something which could only happen if we missed the deadline.

While we did inevitably do precisely that, miss the deadline, the scumteam would have had no way of KNOWING that we'd miss the deadline.

Element's narrative is basically, "Xayah and Oveesoul did distancing, planning on sparing Xayah to help clear Oversoul", but the scumteam when doing that alleged distancing had no way of knowing that the town would fail to deadline lynch, and thus, had no way of, when making those interactions, knowing that Xayah would be spared. If anything, they'd be under the impression that she wouldn't be spared.

[mastina]

I guess I can summarize it as so:
There are reasons why Oversoul COULD be scum…
…But they are, explicitly, paranoia. They rely on violations of Occam's razor, and paint the picture of a scumteam who, at every single step of the way, made the worst possible actions, including a massive misplay putting them in a near-autoloss situation.

Killing people suspicious of Elements, killing people who were townreading Oversoul, not taking optimal actions time after time, and also, not helping the town make misplay after misplay. It requires that the scumteam basically took the most protown possible actions throughout the whole game, furthering the town wincon by letting the town hone in on them.

This is not impossible, a narrative of utter incompetence.
It is incredibly improbable, because the scum team's actions make a whole lot of sense with Elements as scum.

While some of the points for the scumteam being incompetent apply regardless of who the final scum is, as we have demonstrable evidence that they did in fact make misplays regardless of which is the final scum, the question is in the order of magnitude.

With Oversoul as scum, two veteran, experienced players made the worst possible decisions for literally the whole game. This is, while fully possible, a hard pill to swallow.

With Elements as scum, the scumteam, made up of MariaR and a newbie, played most situations well, but not perfectly. They made noticeable errors, but not everything they did was one; their decisions have some semblance of being smart in some areas.

While I would feel incredibly stupid for handing a scumteam who made the worst possible choices the whole game the victory off of "too scummy to be scum" logic, I would feel even MORE stupid for handing the scum who I have nailed, the victory due to caving in to paranoia.

And, logically, Oversoul has no reason to be scum, whereas Elements has every reason to be scum. Which is why I favor Elements as the last scum.

But yeah, don't think that I have anything else to say.

[Elements]

It relies on the scumteam planning on a Xayah spare qr something which could only happen if we missed the deadline.

This is why Xayah started town reading Oversoul over me/chem. She wouldn't have done that if the plan was to suicide spare her. That just came as a convenient way to reduce the players down to the "mislynch trio" more quickly.

Xayah also actively asked Oversoul about the scum PT:

Under your assumption that Rakan and aginngie are both town that means both scum are still alive. What do you think scum would be trying to do in this situation?
How does this change if one scum is in spare and 1 scum is out?

Well, it depends on how confident the scumteam is that they can beat the others. Today has been a rather lax day and it makes me question if scum are comfortable or if we've all just been lazy. Do scum not want to be spared or do they think they can get one of Rakan or Gin killed? I was trying to not be so hard on my stances at first to see if I could give scum a chance in thinking they can mislynch Rakan. But the only one who really is taking a 'Rakan scum' stance seems to be Mastina. She's had that read since day 1.

Tell me, do you think both scum are playing right now or are they in the pt?

That’s a good point about this day being lax. Hmm.

My thoughts are that if scum are not in currently in the spare, they would want to get into the spare to cast doubt on the current spare members and to get that additional kill. However, if scum are already in the spare they wouldn’t care if anyone gets spared or killed as long as the outside member isn’t getting lynched. They’ve already locked in the second kill and any doubt for spare members and if a lynch goes through on a townie they just win outright.

Now that I’m walking through this logic it really seems likely to me that scum are already in the spare given there’s been like no effort from town this phase.

I almost don’t want to be in the spare because if my thinking is correct people are just gonna incorrectly scumread me and after Baton Pass I don’t think I have the mental or physical strength to deal with that

Who do you think the scum in the spare pt could be? Because we obviously disagree on that. This kinda looks like, well. That's exactly what you're saying. You're about to get spared and you're preparing for it. So, if I could clear your doubts about scum in the spare pt would that make you want to be spared? Let's say the answer to that is no. Who would you spare right now if given the chance?

Under your assumption that Rakan and aginngie are both town that means both scum are still alive. What do you think scum would be trying to do in this situation?
How does this change if one scum is in spare and 1 scum is out?

Well, it depends on how confident the scumteam is that they can beat the others. Today has been a rather lax day and it makes me question if scum are comfortable or if we've all just been lazy. Do scum not want to be spared or do they think they can get one of Rakan or Gin killed? I was trying to not be so hard on my stances at first to see if I could give scum a chance in thinking they can mislynch Rakan. But the only one who really is taking a 'Rakan scum' stance seems to be Mastina. She's had that read since day 1.

Tell me, do you think both scum are playing right now or are they in the pt?

If you read through Xayah's PT, her and oversoul are so much closer then her and I

[Xayah]

*yawn* This day is still going?

[Chemist1422]

*yawn* This day is still going?

Waiting on Over tbh

[Oversoul]

Sorry! Busy week. But I’m almost home! Driving bow

[Oversoul]

Xayah was more likely to endgame than you, but she was also more likely to endgame than Elements, too. Making her be confscum was just a misplay regardless of who was scum--so was deciding to spare a scum in the first place rather than just mislynching someone and going for a single kill to be honest. (Mislynching someone + a single nightkill = still two scum-controlled deaths, except town isn't given a confscum from it. Whereas sparing scum into a doublekill = two scum-controlled deaths, at the expense of outing the spared scum as being scum.)

Optimal scum play would've been forcing a mislynch then using a nightkill.
The second-most optimal scumplay would've been sparing the non-Xayah scum who was unlikely to endgame and relying on Xayah's strength as a scum player to see her through. (Not that that'd have worked since I'd have investigated her if given the chance and made her be confscum from it, but IN THEORY this was the smarter play than what they went with.)

So regardless of who is scum in you/Elements, the scumteam made a massive misplay in making the least-optimal choice in their actions.

That having been said: given your experience as a player versus Elements's experience as a player, I find it MORE LIKELY that Elements would make this sort of misplay than you would, so while this isn't evidence for you being town in the way you think it is, I STILL think that it IS evidence for you being town, just...for different reasons.

I mean, if I was scum with Xayah, I would have definitely advocated for me to be the person put into the spare room for pretty much the reasons you've stated. Xayah is a good scum player. I am not. I definitely am not a scum who can win in endgame.

I think between what has happened, my play, and the town cases from you and Nacho, I am as close to conftown as you can get without actually being confirmed. Like if scum are just gonna put scum into the spare room to kamikaze the whole group, I would have strongly advocated for myself to be that kamikaze. With Xayah as my partner? I definitely advocate for myself to be the kamikaze.

I think I have sufficiently played the same way that I played in the last Undertale Semi-Open. I was very much trying to draw the nightkill by wifoming if I was the PR. I thought Rakan was the PR from how he reacted to me which is why I had such a strong townread on him. It is also why I spared him so quickly.

[Oversoul]

I have gone through Xayah's iso and found the scum master plan! The scum game plan was for Xaylah to push "Chem/ele/over" as the potential scum to lead to a mislynch at mylo within that group to end the game. This makes the Xayah spare make a lot of sense. It takes out the otherwise confirmed town early giving less time for them to help discuss the game state and forces the important decision to be made.

Now, you may be saying "But elements that incriminates you as much as oversoul" and by itself, yes it does. However, Xayah started to lead oversoul out from that as the game went on trying to paint oversoul in the more favourable light before the clinch moment.

Spoiler: Torn Notebook

Setting up the chem/ele/over endgame options

I feel like when I read into anything Chen/Ele/Oversoul are saying in regards to each other it’s like a clique talking in girl talk about meta I have no idea about. So you guys having reads on them has me ???

That seems like Ele/Chem/Oversoul from what I can tell. So I blame them~

Starting to distance oversoul from the group.

Really as long as Chem Ele don't get spared I'm okay with things atm. I guess Oversoul too

Xayah, why are you now comfortable townreading me when you were not before? If I'm not mistaken, wasn't I a stronger scumread for you?

I thought scum was in you Chem/Ele for some time now. But the day before when Wisdom was going on about how you and Nacho were a team and Nacho made this case. I figured the best way for me to get information was to vore Nacho. If he flipped scum then yay he was scum. If he flipped town than you're probably town. I've always had a hard time reading you. In the dance game I thought you were town when you were scum. So, I'm going to trust in Nacho and hopefully in others. I also feel better about this because it's basically a cop check fmpov. Since I'm confident in Rakan and Ginngie town.

I want to know why people townread Mastina.
I've had a scumread on Chem for most of the game and it hasn't really faded. For Elements some people say he's in his town meta but I just don't get his play. It pings me. So to say I townread you would be wrong. I think you're townier than the options left.

This post was modified from its original form in a use of mod discretion. It is almost certain Elements intended to use pop-open spoiler tags, but even if he didn't I would be interested in taking some kind of action because {spoiler} tags have known issues with mobile viewing and it is important for all slots to maintain equal access to game content.
A totally unaltered form of this post was posted in the mod PT and can be reposted if somehow necessary

Pop-open spoiler tags require some type of title and Elements' BBCode error is not providing one at all, so as an "NAI" title the Undertale item "Torn Notebook" is his pop-open title.
-popsofctown

I also want to point out that what Elements is doing here is preparing for the next day. I think the way he is doing this is interesting because his reasoning for me scum in this post is also good reasoning for him scum since Xayah listed us together.

[Oversoul]

907 - this second part of Elements scum case on me doesn't even really make sense, in my opinion. I don't see why Xayah starting to townread me makes me more likely to be scum? If anything Xayah would want to maintain the scum read on me so that she doesn't create any more associative tells. As she is doing right now by not posting.

Looking back through the game, the Chennis night kill makes sense as a scumkill that Elements would make. It has the double effect of killing a fairly townie player as well as getting rid of a dissenter.

I am interested in what Chemist has to say, but at the risk of wifom, he should probably remain quiet. Not that it matters, really. Elements has to kill Mastina at this point because she is confirmed town and strongly scumreading him. I am ready to hammer to end the day, but I will not do so because I have not really been here this day phase due to work and school. I will be here over this weekend if anyone has any thoughts they want to discuss with me.

[Elements]

VOTE: xayah

[Oversoul]

Um ok. Have to use the hurt tags, but

[popsofctown]

Vote tags aren't honored in neutral and genocide.

[mastina]

Um ok. Have to use the hurt tags, but

Well.
There goes my plan.
I am fully expecting to be the nightkill.
But if I wasn't the nightkill, tomorrow I was PLANNING to reaction test by casting a vote using the vote tag rather than the hurt tag to see if I could bait the final scum into outing themselves.

Alas.

That plan is out the window now because between the both of you I know you're aware that a vote with the vote tag wouldn't count so the reaction test wouldn't work.

(Mind you, I placed it at an only 20% at best chance of working ANYWAY, but would've been worth a try. Would've. OH WELL.)

[Elements]

Um ok. Have to use the hurt tags, but

Well.
There goes my plan.
I am fully expecting to be the nightkill.
But if I wasn't the nightkill, tomorrow I was PLANNING to reaction test by casting a vote using the vote tag rather than the hurt tag to see if I could bait the final scum into outing themselves.

That doesn't work though. Whoever you vote the other person will know that they're on the opposite team and vote for them. Scum or not.

[Chemist1422]

okay

oversoul

where are ya

[Oversoul]

I am around but house work and baby duty. Responses probably won’t be instantaneous.

[Chemist1422]

I am around but house work and baby duty. Responses probably won’t be instantaneous.

I mean you’re the one who asked for extra time

[Oversoul]

I mainly wanted to address Elements and Mastina’s points. I didn’t hammer Incase you or anyone else wanted to talk more, but I’m getting the impression that people do not. Elements especially when he tried to hammer.

[Chemist1422]

I mainly wanted to address Elements and Mastina’s points. I didn’t hammer Incase you or anyone else wanted to talk more, but I’m getting the impression that people do not. Elements especially when he tried to hammer.

oh you already responded

sorry brain lapse

HURT: xayah

[popsofctown]

Bandage