Mini Normal 2106 GAME OVER

[Farkran]

VOTE: Flubbernugget

Looking forward to hear from other people too

[Farkran]

And i also forgot bob. I'm willing to follow bob.

Why?

I townread him for tone and pro-town behavior

[Farkran]

Chill was SR-ing Sheep for a large part of D1, only seeming to falter when he agreed with him re:Smart.
I think that him dying in the face of that is quite strongly indicative of scum!sheep.

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

tchill was the best kill n1 for any mafia team lol

Not really. He was a good target, but there were others, including a mason claim. I agree with egix here.

[Farkran]

Why does the game seem so slow when we have 65 pages?

Lurker bloc and general disagreement in player reads. I have taken a step down and sheeped SS to come out of the stalling.

What's your read of flubber atm?

[Farkran]

Can we all post lynchpools and see if we can find any common ground?

Mine is {menalque, pp, ben, flubber, sheeps} in that order of preference

[Farkran]

Can we all post lynchpools and see if we can find any common ground?

Mine is {menalque, pp, ben, flubber, sheeps} in that order of preference

Please? Or do we want to waste d2 too?

[Farkran]

I also think the masons are real.

As for Egix, i'm having a hard time believing he is scum due to how day 1 rolled out. He was the highest RVS wagon, then he was one of the main wagons before Garmr happened. We now believe SS is town, tchill and garmr flipped town, which means the wagon against SS was either full town (from my POV, but you believe what you believe) or 3 town + scum!sheeps.

Egix's progression on sheeps has been consistent and he has been SLing him since very early in the game, so i'm inclined to believe they're not scum together IF sheeps is scum. If sheeps is town though, where was scum at the time of the SS vs Egix wagons? Probably on Egix - which means he's likely not scum.

On the other hand, PP's 782 defending the George slot from Egix is peculiar, and one of my reasons for SRing PP/Menalque as a scumteam, possibly with sheeps. Post 804 also shows how the N1K could have been a threat to that specific gamesolve.

Are we sure we don't want to take at least one of scum!{Menalque, PP, sheeps} into consideration?

[Farkran]

As for Egix, i'm having a hard time believing he is scum due to how day 1 rolled out. He was the highest RVS wagon, then he was one of the main wagons before Garmr happened. We now believe SS is town, tchill and garmr flipped town,

which means the wagon against SS was either full town (from my POV, but you believe what you believe) or 3 town + scum!sheeps.

Bolded is my towncase of Egix. What was scum doing if the wagon against SS has 0-1 scum (sheeps) and Egix is scum?

Detailed explanation:

Highest non-rvs wagon against Egix: {

SS

, bob,

PP, ben

}
Highest wagon against SS, there were two: {egix,

sheeps

,

farkran, tchill

} and {egix,

sheeps

,

farkran, garmr

}

...and while i was writing this i just realized i forgot egix was on SS during both of those wagons. I thought it was me and tchill who parked there longest, not egix.

Egix could actually be scum in this scenario, i admit i was misremembering the d1 wagons. However...

1. He was off the garmr wagon. He specifically opted to stay off with post 1259, which is following his progression on the George slot. I don't think scum!egix does that.
2. His lynch is being pushed by my highest SRs

So he's still off my lynchpool for today.

[Farkran]

As for Egix, i'm having a hard time believing he is scum due to how day 1 rolled out. He was the highest RVS wagon, then he was one of the main wagons before Garmr happened. We now believe SS is town, tchill and garmr flipped town, which means the wagon against SS was either full town (from my POV, but you believe what you believe) or 3 town + scum!sheeps.

This points to egix being town though?

I meant this points to egix being scum. Wagon deflected on to garmr from him because???

It's menalque and PP who deflected that wagon though (1199, 1098, 1141), and now they resumed it. I don't like going there before i get a flip on them.

[Farkran]

What about Ben @fark

It's in my lynchpool. His individual scum equity is stronger than my pre-flip SR of you and PP. I'm ok lynching him to sort stuff.

[Farkran]

If i'm not lynching any of my highest SRs i'd rather sheep SS. Or have a massclaim.

[Farkran]

So let’s lynch Ben then?

If i'm not lynching any of my highest SRs i'd rather sheep SS.

Or have a massclaim.

We're not doing either of these.

ikr, we're doing nothing until 6 hours to deadline, then have a quickhammered flashwagon on random town and eventually complain on d4 when we get endgamed.

Sarcasm aside, pretty much everyone except LUV provided his lynchpool and/or gamesolve theory. We strongly disagree with each other. So we are either going to cast our votes individually and repeat d1 again, or we start compromising on a useful lynch. I am compromising by sheeping who i assume to be conf!town (SS).

I'll try to make a recap, feel free to correct me if i am wrong

Farkran:

wants to lynch in {Menalque, PP, Ben, Flubber, Sheeps}, (1604)

Rabid:

wants to lynch in {Fark, sheep, Ben, egix, flub} with preference to Ben, (1628)

Egix:

wants to lynch in {PP, Flubber, Sheeps}, preference to sheeps and flubber, (1562, 1618, 1646)

bob:

wants to lynch {Flubber}, (1522)

SS:

wants to lynch {Flubber}, (1621)

Flubber:

wants to lynch in {Rabid, Egix, Ben, Sheeps}, (1621)

Menalque:

wants to lynch in {Fark, sheep, Ben, egix, flub}, (1623)

PP:

wants to lynch in {Egix, Fark}, (1530, 1634)

sheeps:

i think just {Ben} now. Perhaps Fark. Unclear. (1338, 1683)

Ben:

wants to lynch {SS} but conceded the theory, now i don't know. (1632)

LUV:

MIA

[Farkran]

Lynchpool count

(listing only >3 occurrences)

Flubber:

6

Ben:

5

Sheeps:

4

Egix:

4

Farkran:

3 (4 with sheeps?)

[Farkran]

Rabid: wants to lynch in {Fark, sheep, Ben, egix, flub} with preference to Ben, (1628)

NO. I was clearly quoting menal in that post.

Then state your lynchpool in a clear manner, please. If you quote a full lynchpool and bold a name inside it, i assume you are ok with any of those names but have a preference for the bolded one.

[Farkran]

If you guys hang me, look back at who pushed earliest and hardest.

You know what you should do right now, actually? Explain why you quickhammered garmr and provide your analisys of that wagon.

[Farkran]

@fark my lynchpool is flubber egix bob ben

With amendment from Rabid and sheeps, flubber is still the highest frequency among all lynchpools. Ben and Egix follow closely but are one short of hammer.

I think Flubber could claim.

[Farkran]

VC 1.FINAL

Garmr (7):

Menalque 1139, sheepsaysmeep 1171, Something_Smart 1178, Rabid Schnauzer 1215, PenguinPower 1266, Lil Uzi Vert 1267, benhalkum 1287

LYNCH!

Something_Smart (2):

Tchill13 1180, Egix96 1201

Egix96 (1):

bob3141 641

Lil Uzi Vert (1):

Flubbernugget 471

sheepsaysmeep (1):

Garmr 1191

Menalque (1):

Farkran 1224

Not Voting:

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

By the way i still think we aren't properly sorting this. Garmr flipped town, do we really believe that 7 town players voted against him? I personally do not. SS and LUV are claimed masons, i'm ok with that.

I still think that in the remaining wagon of {Menalque, sheeps, PP, Rabid, Ben} there are at least 2 scum, and it does not make any sense that Menalque and PP proposed a lynch against Egix - but it makes equally little sense that we are FoSsing flubber as the primary target for today. Why aren't we sorting those 5? I mean, a lot of people are TRing Menalque and PP - let's assume they are correct, even if i disagree: why aren't we sorting sheeps, Rabid and Ben?

[Farkran]

I mean, about Ben

A lot of people are putting him in today's lynchpool. But SS and PP are not, mostly out of Ben's meta in another game.

---

About Rabid

I am still townreading him due to ofrhz meta and Rabid's progression which i think is actually very good compared to Mena and PP.

---

About sheeps

Given his position on the d1 wagons, and his not really cool progression, i'm actually starting to think he could be scum - also he seems to be hardpushing Ben's lynch today. I think a lynch on either Ben or sheeps could be pivotal for sorting the current situation, rather than go against flub or egix for instance.

@Flubber can you please claim and give your opinion about the current gamestate, so that we can actually decide if you're worthy of surviving d2 and go on sorting other people while we still have time?

[Farkran]

fark why dont you think there can be a pure wagon on garmr

Where's scum then? Please enlighten me. Tchill flipped town, that's one less player outside Garmr's wagon. {Farkran, Egix, bob, flubber} are the remaining players. Do you think we can find 3 scum there?

[Farkran]

im not arguing that theres a pure wagon

im trying to sort you

do you have reasoning as to why youre basing your reads off that wagon

The wagon grew too quickly without any reason for doing so. Menalque intentionally provoked Garmr to create a scumcase out of nowhere and used manipulative propaganda to push him, scum followed without providing reasons. Scum!garmr wouldn't have reacted the way he did, voting his accusers out of omgus - he would have stayed his vote on a highly populated wagon.

If we look at sheeps exchange with Garmr from 960 to 997, then 998 and 1008, it's clear that sheeps had no intention of voting garmr

or

trusting menalque during d1 end. However, two ISO-posts later (1171), sheeps votes menalque

as 2nd in wagon

, meaning it was not out of fear for the deadline.

PP also provided zero reasons to jump on the wagon other than it being "the top wagon at the time", going as far as denying vanity wagons on Menalque.

Benhalkum quickhammered.

[Farkran]

So farkum are you saying that PP and sheep jumped onto garmr to prevent an alternative wago forming on menal in response to his push on garmr. As that would mean a menal , pp and sheep scum team. Not sure where the ben bit comes in

Only me, Egix and Garmr were considering a Menalque wagon around the end of d1, but we didn't coordinate the effort because Menalque filled the thread with spamposting. I was personally very mad at the time because of this.

My reasoning against Menalque is that he put too much immotivate effort to push the lynch against Garmr. While it is true that scum!menalque didn't NEED to start a new wagon, it is also true that no scum was achieving anything in d1. I don't believe the whole scumteam would be sleeping and accept a no-lynch, unless the scumbloc was entirely composed of lurkers (of which George Bailey was one of the main representatives).

If i am wrong on Menalque though, sheeps and PP joined the wagon for no reason too. And Ben quickhammered, but that looks more like antitown than scummy.

TL;DR i don't know the precise scumteam composition, but i'd say all of those 4 have great scum equity, much moreso than the people outside the wagon.

[Farkran]

I keep going back and forth on farkran tbh, but rn I think he’s more likely to be town with bad reads?

Could you explain which of my reads are bad, and why? Do not include yourself ofc, obviously you're reading yourself as town and it would be pointless to say i have bad reads based on my read of you specifically.

[Farkran]

As for Egix, i'm having a hard time believing he is scum due to how day 1 rolled out. He was the highest RVS wagon, then he was one of the main wagons before Garmr happened. We now believe SS is town, tchill and garmr flipped town, which means the wagon against SS was either full town (from my POV, but you believe what you believe) or 3 town + scum!sheeps.

This points to egix being town though?

I meant this points to egix being scum. Wagon deflected on to garmr from him because???

It's menalque and PP who deflected that wagon though (1199, 1098, 1141), and now they resumed it. I don't like going there before i get a flip on them.

It was an rvs wagon though so what's the deal here?

Egix had more than one wagon against him during d1. I was talking about non-RVS there.

[Farkran]

(i'm usually not into this but i claimed three consecutive pagetops)

[Farkran]

VC 1.10

Egix96 (4):

Something Smart 566, PenguinPower 636, bob3141 641, benhalkum 750

Something_Smart (3):

sheepsaysmeep 423, Farkran 468, Garmr 544

Flubbernugget (2):

ofrhz 347, GeorgeBailey 486

Lil Uzi Vert (2):

Flubbernugget 471, Tchill13 666

GeorgeBailey (1):

Egix96 770

Not Voting:

Lil Uzi Vert 169

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-11-06 00:00:00)

PenguinPower replaces Detective Penguin by request.

[/size]

This wagon

[Farkran]

So why do you think if menal is scum that he woudl push a new wagon and not simply push a player that already had wagon on him?

This is the same counter-reasoning offered by Rabid, but my problem with it is that i don't know what scum was doing before menalque replaced in. Why the garmr wagon was a success whereas SS and Egix were not?

Assume town!SS and scum!Egix. Why didn't scum push SS stronger?

Assume town!SS and town!Egix. Why didn't scum push either of them? Or perhaps they failed because in this scenario they pushed both, then they regrouped against garmr? This would be plausible with a {sheeps, PP, Ben} gamesolve with Menalque being town who is only guilty of pushing a new wagon too strong (which is why i thought he was reaction-testing).

[Farkran]

Ok so... we have one pending replacement (LUV), three players over their prod timer but active elsewhere (SS and Egix in other games, PP modding), one prodge (Ben).

What are we going to do? @SS you still confident flubber is scum? I'd rather do PP now.

[Farkran]

VOTE: PP

[Farkran]

PP also provided zero reasons to jump on the wagon other than it being "the top wagon at the time", going as far as denying vanity wagons on Menalque.

Correct. Because we were hours away from a no lynch and the alternative was S_S. Yes, I said vanity wagons were bad at that point (they were).

So is it safe to say you voted Garmr just because it was convenient, instead of scumreading him? What's your reasoning for following George/Menalque, who started a wagon 24h to deadline instead of pushing SS or Egix?

[Farkran]

I voted Garmr because it was the alternative to a no lynch. I was not scum reading his slot. I left Egix once Garmr became the better chance for a lynch. Why would I push S_S when I town read him?

Are you townreading menalque?

[Farkran]

I think he's more likely town than not at the moment.

Why?

[Farkran]

So, do you think that the wagon against garmr started from town and got to completion thanks to town players scumreading garmr?

[Farkran]

I've already commented on the theories around the Garmr wagon.

Let's see if i got this correct.

Out of the 7 people who lynched Garmr, you're townreading 5: SS and LUV (1636), PP (yourself), Menalque (1748), Ben (1530). Only Rabid and sheeps are left out, and yet you never voted towards them.

Are you saying that 7 town players opted to lynch town, while the whole scumteam can be found in {Farkran, Egix, Flubber, bob}?

[Farkran]

Why don't you answer me this:

From your point of view (apparently) Egix, S_S (mostly confirmed), and Garm (confirmed) are town. They were also the three top wagons during an EOD game state where a no lynch was a real possibility. What is the motivation for scum to make any driving effort to get one wagon over the other or a no lynch?

To look like town, and it's almost always strictly better to have a town player lynched rather than no-lynch even from a scum POV, especially if you have a chance to lynch town PR. Garmr never had a chance to claim.

I've already commented on the theories around the Garmr wagon.

Let's see if i got this correct.

Out of the 7 people who lynched Garmr, you're townreading 5: SS and LUV (1636), PP (yourself), Menalque (1748), Ben (1530). Only Rabid and sheeps are left out, and yet you never voted towards them.

Are you saying that 7 town players opted to lynch town, while the whole scumteam can be found in {Farkran, Egix, Flubber, bob}?

Now why don't you answer me though?

[Farkran]

To look like town, and it's almost always strictly better to have a town player lynched rather than no-lynch even from a scum POV, especially if you have a chance to lynch town PR. Garmr never had a chance to claim.

I mean - that's not true for one. Second, how does it make them look like town?

There is a difference in lynching

someone

as opposed to lynching

town

.

As town, you try to lynch scum to win the game.

As scum, you want look like you're pushing

someone

, but at the same time you try to make sure you're lynching

town

. You want the PRs outed, or better yet dead.

Pushing a town lynch as scum is a win-win situation: it makes you look town and at the same time you out or remove threats.

[Farkran]

I think Rabid and sheep could be scum, yes. Do I think the entire scum team was on Garmr. No, and I think that's a fairly asinine assumption given what I've said before. Do I think there is scum in you, Egix, Flubber, and bob. Most certainly. Probably more than one.

Why Rabid and sheeps specifically? Is it PoE?

Are you townreading Flubber? Why didn't you vote him when he was L-3?

[Farkran]

Pushing a town lynch makes you look like town...

Duh.

As town, you don't push a lynch on TOWN. You push a lynch against someone you think is scum. But you don't KNOW. That's the difference.

I think you're trying to justify your bad logic and try to provoke me.

[Farkran]

So... You're scum, dude ‾\_(ツ)_/‾

Can we lynch here please, or do we want to allow him to ride on town apathy through d2, and have him join the convenient wagon again when it's 6 hours to deadline?

[Farkran]

you frustrate me with repetitive questions

Seconded.

Ok then, let's do literally nothing for the next 5 days.

I second this.

Oh wait, no i don't.

[Farkran]

Also @Rabid you seem awfully defensive of PP for someone who is nullreading him.

Why aren't you interested in questioning towards him?

[Farkran]

I think Rabid and sheep could be scum, yes. Do I think the entire scum team was on Garmr. No, and I think that's a fairly asinine assumption given what I've said before. Do I think there is scum in you, Egix, Flubber, and bob. Most certainly. Probably more than one.

Why Rabid and sheeps specifically? Is it PoE?

Are you townreading Flubber? Why didn't you vote him when he was L-3?

‾\_(ツ)_/‾

Answer this with something which is actually an answer, please

[Farkran]

Why would you want me to shut up though? I was not even talking to you. What's your issue with my questioning of PP? Did you notice anything that i didn't?

[Farkran]

Do I think there is scum in you, Egix, Flubber, and bob. Most certainly. Probably more than one.

Who does currently agree with this?

[Farkran]

Fark can you explain to me why I should believe you push on me was in good faith?

I really didn't like your attitude in d1 eod. Your push on me and garmr was rushed and backed up by very bad reasoning from mypov. I thought SS was genuinely scummy, but aside from that, you were basing your gamesolve on the fact that the whole scumteam was parked on his wagon, which did not make sense. I think you have been propagandistic and provocative, a behavior that should never come from town motivation but in this particular game it could be evaded due to eccessive town apathy. Also i was scumreading George before you replaced in.

After a few irl days into d2 though, i started to reconsider your slot for multiple reasons, one of which i can't talk about but you should know what i mean

(this sentence should be acceptable as of these rules, otherwise please redact it)

. Other reasons include the fact that you are one of the few slots who are willing to actually participate in this game - d2 looks worse than d1 so far in terms of inactivity, and trying to advance the gamestate now sounds more genuine than what you did back then.

[Farkran]

Okay, here’s where I’m at, more or less:

I have two teams in mind, (fark, egix, Ben) and

(PP, rabid, sheep)

. In either one, I suspect there’s only 2/3 scum, but I’m having major trouble sorting between the two for which group is more likely

In the former, each person is more individually scummy. Egix/ben’s ISOs have an almost total lack of solving, and this has proved to be a fairly effective scum catching method for me in the past. Fark could just be tunnelled on me as town, but I read his D1 play as trying to take control of the game in the same way he did in his scum!newbie, and has been pushing a v bad case on me

On the other hand, I was TRing ofhrz when I looked at her ISO and rabid has been put together. PP has similar reads to me, and sheep has been willing to work with me. This scumteam doesn’t really make sense to me individually, but it does make sense (even allowing for the high likelihood that one person on it is wrong) with the gamestate — basically, the lack of an effort to shift things from where they seemed to be defaulting which was lynching in egix/Ben, who I’d expect to do more to prevent themselves getting lynched if we did actually have the majority of the scumteam caught here (unless there’s a super deepwolf they think can carry).

And like I don’t know which mode of thinking is going to be more accurate here because they’re giving radically different answers but they’ve both worked for me in the past

I'm kinda there (bolded part), actually. In town!menalque world, Rabid has a fair share of scum equity despite my earlier townread of the ofrhz slot. Not entirely sold on it though, and i can safely place Ben in the second group in his stead. If this helps, i am perfectly fine with lynching Ben today as a compromise. Right now i'd much rather do PP though.

The staple of my gamesolving progression is that the garmr wagon is dirty af - reconsidering you means i narrow my pool to {sheeps, PP, Rabid, Ben}. If there's scum outside it, i think it's flub.

[Farkran]

If you have questions about that specific game, my scum strategy or anything else, ask me any time.

[Farkran]

I think you have been propagandistic and provocative

Quotes? I think he's been pretty normal Menalque.

1411, but his whole ISO, really. I didn't have this experience with Menalque in Newbie 1951.

[Farkran]

After a few irl days into d2 though, i started to reconsider your slot for multiple reasons, one of which i can't talk about but you should know what i mean

(this sentence should be acceptable as of these rules, otherwise please redact it)

. Other reasons include the fact that you are one of the few slots who are willing to actually participate in this game - d2 looks worse than d1 so far in terms of inactivity, and trying to advance the gamestate now sounds more genuine than what you did back then.

This is also true though.

[Farkran]

If you have questions about that specific game, my scum strategy or anything else, ask me any time.

Okay, what are your town and scum mentalities, and what in this game are you doing differently than you would be as scum?

I think the main difference between my townplay and my scumplay is the level of knowledge i can display in the day thread. I am a very active player as both alignments, so (i think) you can't point me out for lurking or ellitells. Being a heavy associative-reliant player, i try my best to avoid associative potential with my partner, but having only one scumgame i'm not sure how efficient i am in that department. I am highly inquisitive as both alignments, but i believe as scum i often fall to TMI with my reads - i tend to bus more than i would like to. My strategy during 1958 was to keep a justified scumlean of my partner ever since gamestart, which ultimately helped me have a smooth progression on him when he was lynched in d2. I am indeed very anxious when it comes to my scumpartners, because i feel the burden of having them lose the game because of my bad play - as such, i tend to forcefully calm my tone in the daythread while planning my posts and venting in the PT.

As town, reaction tests, VCA and associatives are my scumhunting tools, and ofc i try to fake them as scum. I am not that much reliant on player progressions, especially in the early days, unless there's something that really stands out (such as emps/QC/Saurus in Newb-1960).

Of course, being aware of what i said in this post means that i can probably fake the contrary, but i expect you to verify these checks and metadive me properly. Games i played on this site: Newbie 1951, 1958, 1960. I have never been a VT.

[Farkran]

What i am doing differently in this game as town - this is a tricky question. This is my first Normal game, and not knowing the setup is a huge setback when questioning other players. Being scum would be way easier and less frustrating. If i were scum, i would also probably pick "bad town" candidates for lylo and lock-null them, only to change my read of them when it's convenient to and push for their mislynch. Being in a leading position within the townbloc helps greatly with this strategy - if i were scum, i would likely not N1K tchill as he was very active and trusting me quite heavily, meaning i would probably have established a stronger position in d2 rather than falling into this mess where nobody listens to me. That is, unless he was a serious threat to my scumteam (mainly sheeps).

[Farkran]

1411, but his whole ISO, really. I didn't have this experience with Menalque in Newbie 1951.

Your posts in that quoted exchange were way more provocative than his imo.

I guess our definitions of "provocative and manipulative" greatly differ. Menalque entered the game ~24h to deadline and put his ass over his head to push a new wagon without even having a full catchup. He literally made over 150 post in less than 24 hours to achieve that lynch on garmr. If that isn't an aggressive entrance, please tell me what is.

[Farkran]

Speaking of N1K...

@sheeps, why are you townleaning PP? You seem to have extremely limited interactions with him, yet you've placed him "above null" during d1 and this doesn't seem to have changed during d2. You don't seem very committed to today's wagons, and you are also way less active than you were in d1. PP seems to be defending you fairly often, despite his post 1761.

Also, i don't think 1581 is true. I just realized this when i was writing my NKA: tchill was specifically the best kill for scum!sheeps, while it was awful for {fark, egix, bob} individually. As i just said, Tchill was a very active player and outside the garmr wagon, which made him a good kill target, but i think what made him die over me (equally active, outside garmr wagon and quite widely townread) is because i was townreading sheeps.

[Farkran]

Something that pinged me about you (Farkran) was that you were asking for lynch pools in an attempt to find the most generally scum read players. I don't get the town mentality behind that (or menal's proposed sheep deal either).

I asked that to make a recap of the gamestate, because we were going nowhere. Also, what does this reasoning lead you? That i would have conveniently voted the widely scumread players? I just voted PP over flubber, several posts ago, because i really think we must lynch inside the garmr wagon, not outside.

It was aggressive, but it wasn't manipulative. He certainly wasn't making any secret of what he was trying to accomplish.

Consider from scum!fark POV: he tries to get menal lynched, as menal is the other major poster in the game. When that doesn't work, he fishes for a new push that

will

gain traction, and starts to mend fences with menal.

See my recent post about tchill - he's dead and he's still 3rd in the activity meter.

[Farkran]

VOTE: sheeps

I think {sheeps, PP} is a team but sheeps has probably more individual scum equity due to N1K.

[Farkran]

Can you have another look at my iso and tell me why you thought I was approaching the game from SS wagon is scummy therefore players on it are scum rather than vice versa?

Yes, i just reread cold-headed and i still think that's what you were basing your push on:

Spoiler: menalque eod1 progression

Sheep, garmr, SS, why are/were you SRing SS?

I think SS is p towny this game, certainly beyond the point where he should be the top wagon

First you townread SS

My theory is that SS wagon is scum motivated which I will be explaining once I get home

Then you announce that the wagon against SS is scum-motivated

okay, so I'm only like 13 pages in to my read through, but can I interest you fine folks in a Farkran lynch

VOTE: farkran

This is rushed and aggressive, pushing a lynch with 1/3 of a full catchup - this is a very bad move from town, and this is where i started to think your push was scum motivated. And i got mad because you were spamposting to manipulate the general opinion.

reads are roughly

SS, PP, tchill, Rabid, Egix, luv town

ben is mixed

scum in (fark, sheep, Garmr, flub, bob)

You never questioned flub or bob, which made me think you added them to your SR list just to make it more credible but you actually didn't care about them

reads as of pg 20 +since my rep in:

tchill, Rabid (based on ofhrz) - town
SS, PP
egix, luv, ben

flub - null

bob - null scum

Garmr - scum
sheep, fark

Confirming that you don't have a full catchup and confirming your reads are biased: you removed bob and flub from the SR list, which is now composed of just the three people on the SS wagon (see VC 1.13, 1106).

I mean, that’s not really what happened. I didn’t really think SS was that scummy and when I saw that he was too wagon I looked at his ISO and decided that he prob wasn’t scum. I the looked through your ISO + a couple of others and started rereading from the beginning, and came to a scum pool of (you, sheep, garmr, flub, Ben).

Ben got townier and my probably strongest TR thinks he’s town so I’m willing to bump him up to bull/mixed signals.

Leaving me with a lynchpool of 4.

Then, looking at the wagon on SS, I was able to conclude that it’s a scum motivated wagon, which also explains the difficulty in it going through. Town is unconvinced that SS is scum and doesn’t really wanna vote him, and scum is already on. If scum is already on, they can’t “gradually” be persuaded to come on later, hence giving the impression of momentum which I think is important for a wagon to go through.

And so given my independent reads on all involved I think that’s the most likely explanation for the stalling SS wagon, along with scum hoping that enough people will switch there under deadline pressure because a lynch needs to happen that they can dictate it.

Plus, yes, I’ve said explicitly that you 3 are my top SRs.

This is the bad logic part i have been talking about. How can you assume, if sheeps+garmr+farkran are a scumteam, that they ALL park their vote on SS for more pages, aka ~9 irl days worth of content? I mean, this is less than a firstgamer skill level. Didn't the thought ever cross your mind that we could, like, separate our votes to avoid associative potential? But even if we didn't want to, why didn't we try to push a mislynch by moving on to Egix, or any different wagon, once we see that the SS wagon wasn't going through?

Also I find it kinda odd that there was comparatively little discussion of me these past few pages, considering that the wagon on me was still lingering.

The wagon on you wasn’t realistically going through once I started pushing fark/garmr because scum is on SS already and needs to stay there to try and get that through or risk a lynch on them

Yeah...

Town should not do this. Ever. And i thought it was scumsided, not simply anti-town, because 1. in Newb1951 you actually had very good reads and you never pushed so aggressively; 2. i was expecting you to defend yourself with sentences like "where's the scum motivation in me doing this", which makes you aware of it and therefore able to fake it.

After this happened, i was really mad at you and the town as a whole because i felt like you (all) had thrown d1 out of the window, hence my subsequent display of poorly thought posts - which i still think were correct, even if the content sounded like coming from a 10yo spoiled brat.

[Farkran]

I have this tinfoil theory that RS is staying out of the pp/fark/men argument to let them all eat each other apart but 1) I'd have to better look at his iso to substantiate this and 2) there's enough shitshow players (myself included) so that might be one of the few things relatively active town can do here

I am currently feeling myself in agreement with this.

bob has big posts and im barely reading them but i do think theyre genuine or legitimate thoughts he's been having

I agree on bob's posts, but why aren't you reading them? This feels like a forced filler post.

But also with this.

I don't think i want to sort Rabid today though. Sheeps and Ben are far better candidates (not including PP because i'm apparently the only one scumreading him, but he is a good candidate too).

[Farkran]

Let’s lynch sheep today

I kinda SR him on entrance, his flub read progressions aren’t explained (especially from end of D1 into D2) and

garmr+tchill both SR him

and I’m willing to sheep conftown now that I don’t think fark is scum

This is a good point, particularly (for me) regarding tchill.

VOTE: sheep

But I'd love to go back to ben if there are any takers...

I mostly agree with your current reads, so this is not a hostile post, but... out of curiosity, why didn't you pick the tchill part up when i mentioned it, and now you're willing to sheep menalque based on literally the same reasoning?

[Farkran]

Ok

[Farkran]

I mean, yes, if you’re town then you’re just gonna have to make your mind up on whether I’m faking it or if I’ve genuinely re-evaluated

I mean - there other options. But, I’ll decide tonight.

If anything, i see this as pushing menalque in case of a red flip on sheeps, and i agree with Rabid it may point both ways

[Farkran]

VOTE: pp

Can also do ben. 2 am in the morn, i waited to see what would happen, i'm going to sleep now and catchup tomorrow

(damn you tris you were 30 mins late, lol. Just kidding <3)

Pedit: F

[Farkran]

lol i didn't notice that

[Farkran]

By the way, during the night i have taken a look at sheeps ISO, found this:

Spoiler: sheeps readlists and progression

Penguin might be > rand town for snark.

thats one of my stronger towntells yeh

---

with how much the emptiness of the thread is bothering me i want to say this game is fairly sort by postcount and scum have taken it easy and only popped in once or twice

but so far the only one who stands out is farkran

i like egix's posts 78 and 80

like smart's read on penguin

like penguin's entrance

everyone else ~rand; can village please post more

---

sheep farkran tchill ssmart dpenguin are villas

flubber can loosely follow; i wolfed with him a while back in one of my last games on this site and if he was wolf concerned about how he looks he could definitely be doing a lot more to look villagery but so far just feels like he’s working at his own pace instead of trying to impress

---

penguin's somewhat twtbw-y or not caring how he's read

not a strong read but still exists and it's basically all i can garner from his posts

---

you have good conviction in your reads and progressions even if i disagree with it more because i think the self confidence in what youre doing matters more

flubber could be looking more villagery if that was his concern but i dont think it is; he has legitimately good content hdiden within without trying to be wolfily-showy about it

farkran for his highposting start (other peoples disagreement wiht my thoughts here still isnt changing this) though he's kinda decreasing for me to keep relying on that reasoning but hopefully not a concern i need to have


ben and ss loosely follow; i wouldnt consider them strong v reads but theyve generally mirrored my thoughts and mindmelded though need more posts

dp has good tone. not a feel i would work off of late game but it's there and puts him just above nulls

---

tchil (55)
farkran (44)
sheep (39)
ss (32)

dp (22)
--
bob (20)
luv (19)

garmr (15)
ben (13)
egix (12)
george (8)
ofhrz (8)

sort by postcount works pretty well with my list actually though i mightve been subconsciously influenced

only issues dont remember bob, luv, ss having so many posts but this looks like something i'd work with today

forgot flubber (18)

---

Do you have any scumreads besides ss? What does your kynchpool look like for today?

i think youve flipped me to lean w ben tbh

doubt would lynch today: fark, flubber, egix, tchill


just above null: ofrhz dp

leaves george, garmr, bob, luv, ben, ss

eitehr of the latter two could go today likely wouldnt complain

---

sheep tchill fark
flubber egix penguin bob rabid luv
--
garmr george ben ss

ama

---

In post 1326, tris wrote:
Menalque, Detective Penguin, Something_Smart, Flubbernugget, Egix96, bob3141, sheepsaysmeep, Rabid Schnauzer, Farkran, benhalkum, Lil Uzi Vert

sheep, menal, fark: very confident villa

rabid, penguin, egix still look ok

leaving ss, flubber, bob, ben, luv

ss and ben can die with higher priority

VOTE: smart

---

Menalque
Detective Penguin
Something_Smart
Flubbernugget
Egix96
bob3141
sheepsaysmeep
Rabid Schnauzer
Farkran
benhalkum
Lil Uzi Vert

sheep menal penguin ss rabid fark

@fark my lynchpool is flubber egix bob ben

though the latter three more likeable but still in the end lynchable

+ There's zero progression on the pp slot, his read is permanently parked at "above null" for no reason.
+ There's no interaction between the two slots except minor theatricals in d2 from post 1531 to 1563, which i think was coached. Incidentally it also includes Rabid. I'll talk about this in the next post.

Unrelated to sheeps ISO though, i think it has been quite evident that PP does not care about who is lynched as long as it's not one of his partners. He hardpushed to lynch Egix (who is now almost conftown for being the wagon driver against sheeps), he hardpushed me, but he has also been more than willing to join the garmr wagon while happily staying out of sheeps', and...

... i really don't think sheeps and ben have been mutually bussing themselves (ben has been "wolfread" by sheeps since d1, ben quickhammered). My first d3 post was a reaction test to pp, who is now using Ben as an escapegoat because he's the most likely counterwagon to his own.

[Farkran]

/in before Farkran says that was an all-town wagon on sheep

Speaking about this, i do agree. There was probably 1 scum on it, and 1 off of it. You're the one off of it, as i just explained.

The one on it is probably Rabid.

Let’s lynch sheep today

I kinda SR him on entrance, his flub read progressions aren’t explained (especially from end of D1 into D2) and

garmr+tchill both SR him

and I’m willing to sheep conftown now that I don’t think fark is scum

This is a good point, particularly (for me) regarding tchill.

VOTE: sheep

But I'd love to go back to ben if there are any takers...

This vote was really fishy to me. I didn't want to put too much weight on it before sheeps flipped, but this sudden change of mind right after when the sheeps wagon gained momentum is very bad timing, almost like Rabid wanted to make sure to be against a red-flipping wagon rather than defending his highest scumread. I went and check back to see if this theory could have any backup, and i found this:

Spoiler: ofrhz&Rabid

I like tchill and garmr so far

I like sheep’s tone but not really vibing their reads

Also what about sheeps tone do you like. Even if as you say you dont beleive his reads are right

I just like his ... tone. Idk what I'm supposed to elaborate on

Feels carefree I guess?

idc if you think im scum.

good reasoning is relative to the player playing. if we have different mindsets on how to play we will usually disagree.

i myself do not care about clinging to a straight line progression in my play. I'm more of a free flower.

I think what bob is doing compared to anyone else is easily more concrete as town.

you're wanting to reward sheep for playing in a gamestate he doesnt have to, which in my eyes is prime scum time. I'm not gonna tunnel someone for it but something as simple as that doesnt get a TR from me.

What bob is doing has way more benefits to town than what sheep, for example, is doing. which is why i can confidently say I believe bob is town but i dont believe sheep is quite yet.

You have a scumread on sheep for townreading Farkran for being active

But you don't scumread Farkran for townreading sheep for being active (as far as I can tell)

Why?

okay I just skimmed the last few pages. Not really feeling Farkran scum anymore because of his response to me and I've liked his takes more as I've caught up

I'm around here:

Town

Tchill, Garmr, Farkran, Bob
Sheep, Penguin, George, Egix, LUV, Ben
SS, Flubber

Scum

I feel like there isn't much of a difference between the people sorted into the second and third tiers

I'm wary of ben because he hasn't displayed that natural scumhunting instinct he did in our last game together. but he also did sort of implode mid Day 1 in Haunted Village too (where he was town) and his claim out of nowhere felt like the same giving up attitude he displayed there.

I generally disagree with people townreading Ben (sheep and SS off the top of my head) for not having any reads, and that stance damages my read on them. I don't think that stance is hard to fake, especially when the gamestate consists of a bunch of stale wagons

Flubber feels a little bit stiff here compared to Mini 2080. I'm interested in pursuing this more

VOTE: flubber

ofrhz seems to have feelings about sheeps, mostly good feelings, but then only places him at null. Also prepares the ground for pocketing me since i have been townreading both him and sheeps now. Good job ofrhz.

tchil (55)
farkran (44)
sheep (39)
ss (32)

dp (22)
--
bob (20)
luv (19)

garmr (15)
ben (13)
egix (12)
george (8)
ofhrz (8)

sort by postcount works pretty well with my list actually though i mightve been subconsciously influenced

only issues dont remember bob, luv, ss having so many posts but this looks like something i'd work with today

Is this IIoA, or are you saying your reads line up exactly with post counts?

I mean, even if it was a postcount list, sheeps did say that it was a good match to his alignment-readlist. Ofrhz stands in the last position, but sheeps refused to ever question or put pressure on him. Rabid reads it and also has no questions to ask, besides that iioa thing, then drops the issue as of 891

+

pretty strong v vibes from rabid's catchup

+ I think another reason why i survived d1 is because my reads were really bad (i was TLing sheeps and hard-TRing ofrhz/rabid). They thought they could scumcase and mislynch me (guess what, if menalque is town, Rabid and pp are the only other ones who shaded me).
+ I still think it's not unlikely that the garmr wagon contained the full scumteam.

[Farkran]

By the way, i'd say i'm 85% sure on scum!pp and roughly 60% on scum!Rabid.

Ben is quite unlikely to be scum atm.
Egix is VERY likely town.
Menalque is likely town.
bob... i genuinely townread him, +he was off garmr and on sheeps, i don't think he has more likeliness to be in bussing position than rabid there
Flubber has some scum equity, but since SS is now 100% conftown, flubber d1 progression makes sense. He was off of garmr wagon, also off of sheeps but his last post comes before the wagon gained momentum so i'd say it's NAI.

[Farkran]

If one of flubber or PP isnt scum then we by process of elimination must have one scum on teh wagon. As the only other players not to vote sheep were the 2masons of which one was nked confirmeding them both and sheep himself.

So if eitehr PP or flubber are in fact town that means one of those on the sheep lynch would have to be scum.

@bob i have several questions for you

1) Why do you assume there is 1 scum on sheeps wagon? I mean i agree, but i'd like to hear your reasoning too

2) Why are you trying to sort egix specifically instead of sorting pp/flubber first?

3) Let's analyze the garmr wagon from your POV:
- Those on wagon: {Menalque , sheepsaysmeep, Something_Smart, Rabid Schnauzer, PenguinPower, Lil Uzi Vert, benhalkum}
- Those off wagon: {bob, Farkran, Flubber, Egix, Tchill and garmr himself}

You should have 3 conf!towns off wagon in {bob, tchill, garmr}
And 2 conf!towns on wagon in {SS, LUV}, +1 conf!scum in {sheeps}

Set aside pp and flubber, why are you trying to sort Fark/Ben/Egix before Menalque and Rabid?

[Farkran]

I did not misrep you, in fact i agree with you on having 1 scum on the sheeps wagon.

But what are your reasons for ruling out the possibility that pp and flubber are both scum? Or at least that's how i read your posts, if i'm wrong please tell me

[Farkran]

Again why do you want us to be solely focused on those not on the wagon farkum.

Please, reread my posts. I never said this.

I scum read egix day one, he was in my poe day 2 along with sheep and flubber. Why would I not try to sort out if egix is infact right to be in poe. And thus in my scum reads.

Why dont you want any one pushing egix.

Ok. I disagree with your egix read, but why are you sorting egix before flubber and pp? And why aren't you taking rabid and menalque into consideration?

[Farkran]

If you read my posts before i voted sheep last day. you would in fact see that i scum read flubber along with sheep at the time. With teh potential for PP to be scum but my vca fits a scum team of egix, sheep and flubber being likely. Thus im suprised that you would find it odd i would evaluate egix in light of sheeps slip.


If you read my posts relating to menal you woudl see that i infact concluded that menal pushs although wrong on garmr looked townie. With me trying to sort rapid during the end of day two. Currently rapid is null with a slight town read. The timing of his vote on sheep looks townie to me as the sheep wagon was realy building up momentum then and his vote prety much guaranteed a sheep lynch.

At that point it put sheep to l-2 when you had 2 other players scum reading sheep with himbeing in there respective poe. Me and the claimed mason smart. With luv death now confirming smart.

With at the moment me scum reading flubber and egix. Agains farkum why wouldnt i push my scum reads?

Ok, this makes sense now. I still think you're wrong on egix though, i rarely see bussers in wagon driver position, and Egix was suspicious of sheeps back in d1 as well.

Also i think PP is scum and he has been hardpushing Egix since forever. Flubber pushed Egix too during early d1, and i really don't think both pp and flubber are town. I think egix is just town.

@Menalque what do you think of bob rn?

[Farkran]

Meh. Just lynch me to remove bad logic from your thought process (if possible) and move on. I really don't feel like arguing with Farkran's walls anymore.

We earned a mislynch.

You never argued with me though, nor did you point out my "bad logic" in a useful fashion. All you did was wave at my questions, provoke me, and push me. I guess AtE is your last resource, so yeah, i think i'll gladly remove you from my thoughts and see what comes out of that.

[Farkran]

Initial thoughts are:

Me, SS conf!town
Bob,

fake

town

I think you mean

bob, fark town

?

I think flub may be townspewed by sheep!scum — I remember thinking this but not why I was thinking it

I also thought about this, but i believe it was bias from me, not willing to believe it over facts unless you can produce reasoning that i can agree with.

So that leaves 2 scum in rabid, PP, egix, Ben which is where we’re all looking. I feel p good about this as a PoE and it gives us raw 50% odds of hitting scum if right

So I think priority is to try and sort within here even if we’re reaching different conclusions and to try and figure out why that is. In the meantime, if anyone in that group could towntell that would be grand

I'm mostly with you there, but i still don't get the scumcase against egix. Individual scum equity is there, but vca and interactions are kinda foolproof to me.

[Farkran]

Can we talk about pp and rabid for a sec? I posted my opinions, i'd like to hear yours @everyone.

Menalque was the swing that made sheeps lynch happen imo, not Rabid. Rabid vote felt forced and innatural to me. Willing to talk about it and hear reasoning why i could be wrong

[Farkran]

Went back to verify the Egix/sheeps associative potential and unless they have extraordinary acting skills i think it nears zero. Their dual ISO has plenty of interactions, progression shifts and mutual accusations backed up by plausible reasoning.

Spoiler: just some of the excerpts from Egix vs sheeps dual ISO

Posts 73 to 80

Posts 369 and 370

Posts 758, 800 and 842

VOTE: egix

fark wanna try this?

Chill was SR-ing Sheep for a large part of D1, only seeming to falter when he agreed with him re:Smart.
I think that him dying in the face of that is quite strongly indicative of scum!sheep.

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

what does bop mean

Burden of proficiency

And more

I don't think this comes from two people sharing the same PT.

[Farkran]

We can talk a bit about Ben.

I think he is above average for individual scum equity, but again associative potential with sheeps is weak. We have a VT claim from him, not a proof of anything but given the player profile i might want to believe it now. I've also read VH meta and i found it different than this game, which makes me wary of pp pointing it out as similar - this can be biased from my SR of pp though.

Playstyle does not feel coached unless we have a solve in {sheeps, ben, flubber}, which is plausible but imo less likely than {pp, anyone}. Regardless of pp flip though, i definitely agree with him that we shouldn't have Ben in our lylo, not up to the point we lynch him today though.

What does everyone think about {sheeps, ben, flubber} as a solve?

[Farkran]

I still don’t really see flub

Me neither, but degree of certainty is low, i.e. it's... mostly gut, and him being outside garmr wagon for me. Associatives with sheeps are poor but non-zero.

Going by memory i think flubber was strong on lynching lurkers, probably townread SS (which at the time i found scummy), but basically fencesit the whole game.

[Farkran]

Idk flub is prob the most important person to sort because I think I’m confident enough on you and bob to say that this game is winning if flub is town

I kinda agree. I tried to produce a mechsolve strategy but i don't think we can afford enough mislynches so we will have to assume a bigger townbloc than {Fark, egix, mena, bob} if we want to attempt that.

pedit: maybe. What happens if we add Flubber to that list?

[Farkran]

I forgot conftown!SS

[Farkran]

Like I have 5 town I’m confident on and 4 people to PoE scum from

I think we get 2 mislynches at this point so if I’m right then we’re still lynching scum even if we mislynch twice

If egix is town then that would mean the PoE is just 3

Yeah i think that makes it enough to switch flubber and egix in our pools.

I'd like to go

PP(scum) > Rabid > Ben > Flub
or
PP(town) > Ben > Flub > Rabid

Pedit: that rabid post was bad and really not what we needed today, but ok.

[Farkran]

Tbh I’m inclined to not lynch penguin first @fark

Who's your first?

[Farkran]

I don't think i'm lynching outside of PP or Rabid today. Going to sleep over it rn, but i'm very highly confident in at least 1 scum in that pair.

pedit: please post ISO results because i'm interested in those, i've been biased towards scum!PP for a long time now and i might have overlooked stuff

[Farkran]

Thanks

I currently think it’s egix/rabid

I'm almost sold on rabid (will explain shortly after this post), but i really think egix is town in this game. We can leave him for later though, as long as we can get a useful compromise today. I'm still not convinced we should let pp go, i will read your pp!iso analysis though

[Farkran]

What makes you entertain rabid bussing?

I only got to skim, sorry. Fuzzy thoughts are that we should probably lynch off the sheep wagon and pp looks best there. I want to read a little more tomorrow and give recent posts more than a skim

You do realize that if you're town there is at least 1 scum on wagon, right? Not saying i disagree with you on lynching pp, he's still my best guess and i'm all for taking him down today, but since we have time to speak, i suggest that you provide your opinion on who's scum on sheeps wagon from your pov

[Farkran]

VOTE: Ben

It's past time that this happened.
VOTE: Ben

Ok, please explain to me a couple things:

You have been coasting PP for a long time in this game. You have been parking your read on him at null level and refusing to make any progression shifts about him - however, you have also been willing to sheep him more than once, soft-defending him when he was being pressured and refused to pressure him under any circumstance. From your POV, pp should have been proven wrong at least 4 times by now: 1. vote on garmr, 2. push on egix, 3. push on farkran, 4. being off on sheeps.

What makes you STILL not wanting to vote him over Ben, whom has been WKed by PP despite the d1 quickhammer ON TOWN, and he's now voting him after a quickhammer ON SCUM? Please give me some concrete details about where you see town intent from PP.

@menalque, wait for Rabid response before posting yours please.

[Farkran]

Ask yourself: what if sheep had flipped town PR? How would you feel about ben then?

If i single out this sentence from context, this seems like a policy lynch, and i really do not think it is a good idea in this gamestate. Give me some context that is not just "he likes to lolhammer around". Scumcase Ben, and towncase PP, please.

[Farkran]

Ok, please explain to me a couple things:

You have been coasting PP for a long time in this game. You have been parking your read on him at null level and refusing to make any progression shifts about him

Yes, as he's very difficult for me to read.

So... why aren't you making an effort to read him? This is why i say you're coasting - you say you don't townread him, but you keep soft-defending him every time he is mentioned like he is part of your hard townbloc, and this is either wrong or scummy. Like, if you have a player who is hard for you to read you should be pressuring the fuck out of him to sort his slot before lylo - even if i didn't ask you to, let alone if i do.

- however, you have also been willing to sheep him more than once,

Where?

"sheep" is perhaps not the correct word in this context, i am mostly referring to the fact that you never question his words or actions, and you are not taking time to assess wheter you should vote where he is voting, even though he is currently the obvious choice by VCA alone. I could understand difference in playstyle and reasoning basis, i.e. i put pretty strong faith in VCA and NKA - which incidentally allowed me to lynch scum - but i know menalque does not, and i think he will lose more games than he's winning it out of that. This is just my opinion though, menalque is allowed to disagree.

Regardless of whether you trust VCA or not though, you should at least doubt PP and try to sort him when you see something is off. You have never done that.

soft-defending him when he was being pressured and refused to pressure him under any circumstance.

I'm more interested in pushing my scum than my null reads.

Now, consider that we're both voting ben. It's not sheeping, as I've been on ben for some time. If ben does flip scum, then I know PP is town - he's not busing his partner after just losing one.

Why do you allow Ben bussing sheeps, but not pp bussing ben?

Similarly, you have both me and ben in your scum pool. You should be voting ben. If he flips scum, as you suspect he will, then that should pretty much clear me from your perspective, and PP as well.

I completely disagree with this, and i'll never sort Ben before PP. That's backwards. Also Ben is currently not in my scumpool as of today, i already provided my gamesolve and it does not include Ben as long as i don't have a green flip from pp.

From your POV, pp should have been proven wrong at least 4 times by now: 1. vote on garmr, 2. push on egix, 3. push on farkran, 4. being off on sheeps.

From my perspective, you've been wrong more than once, for example with your huge menal push. That doesn't matter to me, as town get things wrong, and I have a big scum read to push.

Please elaborate "more than once", because so far in this game my reads have been quite solid except for d1 SS&LUV and possibly Menalque, whereas PP got almost everything wrong and didn't make any attempt to improve. I think there is a limit on how much town can be wrong before falling to the scum side.

What makes you STILL not wanting to vote him over Ben, whom has been WKed by PP despite the d1 quickhammer ON TOWN, and he's now voting him after a quickhammer ON SCUM? Please give me some concrete details about where you see town intent from PP.

I don't see obvious town intent from PP, or obvious scum intent. That's why he's null to me. He's a good player. So, I'm pushing my biggest scum read and, as noted, if ben flips as I think he will, that will give me my read on PP.

See above, i think you have it backwards, but i think we can agree to disagree as of right now.

[Farkran]

I mean, my scumreads were {Flubber, PP}, but those reads are clearly bad, because scum left me alive and killed the replacement. So I'm staying away from them for now.

Please point to me where you have stated your scumread of PP, because i'm fairly sure i didn't notice it. You have been slightly questioning him during d2, but no way you ever stated he was a scumread of yours?

[Farkran]

I mean, my scumreads were {Flubber, PP}, but those reads are clearly bad, because scum left me alive and killed the replacement. So I'm staying away from them for now.

Please point to me where you have stated your scumread of PP, because i'm fairly sure i didn't notice it. You have been slightly questioning him during d2, but no way you ever stated he was a scumread of yours?

Also i don't know if, as scum, i'd be killing a semi-lurker over a fresh replacement who could potentially perform good as an IC town leader. I would have killed you over LUV, but not sure i'd kill you over the replacement of LUV (i don't know january ftr)

[Farkran]

you keep soft-defending him every time he is mentioned like he is part of your hard townbloc,

Why do you lie like that?

Spoiler: not lying

Farkran, you need to toughen up if you're going to play this game. Penguin was not at all out of line.

I agree that it's NAI. But, he's out of the newbies now, and he needs to know that Penguin's comments were not over the line.

I (intentionally) said that no one gives a fuck what you think, as I figured you'd ignore it (you did), and it's an example of what to expect in these games.

If you take out personal behavior from this exchange (i admit i have been childish), you've been siding with PP despite me being correct in the end. I think town!you would at least question him in d2. Why would town!you work AGAINST squeezing info from a slot you can't read?

you frustrate me with repetitive questions

Seconded.

Again - you can't stand me and i'm ok with that, but why would you go as far as trying to stop my questioning of PP? As i said, i wasn't even talking to you. Best case scenario you should have stayed out of it, if it is true that you can't read pp.

what about his repetitive questions is making you two frustrated. Are you having to both keep checkign what you answered before and thus get frustrated?

I find asking person later the same sort of question quite revealing. Very good at findign any inconsistencies

I considered whether he might be doing that, but I don't think so. I think it's more that he reads, but doesn't really absorb it all. It's not a big deal, but I do find it a little annoying.

Again, my problem is not that you can't stand me. I know i can get on people's nerves and that's actually part of my strategy, but why would you join an argument only to side with one player you cannot read, against someone who is pressuring him? Even if you think i am bad town, you should never side with someone you don't have a read on. Town!you either rests, or adds something constructive to make me reconsider pp.

---

Penguin has almost nothing on Garmr.

I have already made my scumcases and i see no one agrees with me, not sure why but it seems like i am missing some pieces that you guys apparently have to townread menalque and pp in this game. Assuming i am wrong on them, i'd like @SS, LUV, Rabid, Egix, Flubber to state their position as soon as they have one.

I've already noted that scum!menal had no reason to replace in and invent a new wagon when there were several existing wagons. I know you disagree, you don't need to explain it again.

I don't townread penguin. He's null to me. IMO he likes to intentionally be difficult to read.

Again, no attempts to gain any progression on a player you're willing to bring to lylo. Red flip on Ben won't clear him at all - even if you don't like me repeating myself, PP was WKing Ben when he quickhammered town and he is now voting him after he quickhammers scum.

Do you even consider the possibility that you're wrong on Ben? Because if you are, you're effectively allowing PP to get to lylo without a read on him. That makes you individually scummy as well as potentially associated with PP himself.

[Farkran]

Please point to me where you have stated your scumread of PP, because i'm fairly sure i didn't notice it. You have been slightly questioning him during d2, but no way you ever stated he was a scumread of yours?

Implied in 1841, ig. That tell's certainly more indicative of Flubber town than PP.

That's, like... very very very far from a scumread, don't you agree...?

[Farkran]

Also i don't know if, as scum, i'd be killing a semi-lurker over a fresh replacement who could potentially perform good as an IC town leader.

Also, semi-lurker my ass. I'm third highest poster, lol.

Be honest with me: would you think the content in your posts is enough to qualify you as not a lurker? I mean, perhaps lurker (nor semi-lurker) is not the correct word to describe you, but i think you should admit you haven't been particularly engaged, especially as of late. You almost got a prod in d2.

By the way, i was just trying to explain why i think most scum would probably kill january over you. We can move on from this if we agree, otherwise i'm willing to listen why you'd think they wouldn't and see if there is any player who could potentially agree with your reasoning.

[Farkran]

You realize that tomorrow isn't Lylo no matter what happens today...right?

You do realize that the towniest thing you've done in this game was admitting you're going to be a hindrance in lylo, right? Stick to that, or, you know, attempt to play like town should rather than being snarky for the sake of it.

I've been bullying players in my scumgame to advance my wincon too, it's not like i don't know where it comes from.

[Farkran]

I've done nothing to defend PP against actual scum reads.

You mean besides stopping my every attempt to push him? Ok.

You seem to think that you're the town leader, and if you say it's PP, everyone either needs to vote with you or present a town case on PP. That's not how it works.

Or, you know, we could talk about why we should - or should not - let PP live over Ben (or anyone else) and discuss it together rather than trying to minimize my opinion about him? It's not like i can control your vote, you know. Me being in a leading position or not does not make any difference about who you decide to vote on.

[Farkran]

Do you even consider the possibility that you're wrong on Ben? Because if you are, you're effectively allowing PP to get to lylo without a read on him. That makes you individually scummy as well as potentially associated with PP himself.

How does a mislynch today effectively put PP in lylo?

Ok, let's start again from here.

We lynch ben today, he flips town. What do we do tomorrow?

He flips scum, what do we do tomorrow?

[Farkran]

That's, like... very very very far from a scumread, don't you agree...?

It was a scumread actually, though maybe that wasn't evident

It could have been in your mind, but would you agree that other players could not see it as such? I mean, if you're basing your reasoning on the fact that scum let you live over january because of your bad reads, this point is quite significant.

[Farkran]

Oh, by the way i am a

Town Backup Neighborizer

. I've felt like a VT for the whole game, despite not being a VT.

I feel my role is no longer useful, so it's probably better if you know and make use of this claim before we do something stupid like we did in d1 eod.

I specifically suggested a massclaim in d2 because i was also thinking there were too many PRs after the two claimed masons and Tchill, so i would probably have counterclaimed any other PR claims. As of rn, i don't think it's going to happen though, and i think the benefits of narrowing our lynchpool are greater than the possibility of counterclaiming someone else.

I haven't noticed any neighborhood-originated interactions, and Normal rules say it's possible to not have a Main role despite the existance of a backup. Going through the Normal archives i noticed that it's more frequent to have a Main if a backup is present, but if there is any, i think it's probably a Mafia neighborizer.

[Farkran]

Fark, why did you choose to claim when you did?

I feel my role is no longer useful, so it's probably better if you know and make use of this claim

before we do something stupid like we did in d1 eod

.

I specifically suggested a massclaim in d2 because i was also thinking there were too many PRs after the two claimed masons and Tchill, so i would probably have counterclaimed any other PR claims. As of rn, i don't think it's going to happen though,

and i think the benefits of narrowing our lynchpool are greater than the possibility of counterclaiming someone else

.

I haven't noticed any neighborhood-originated interactions, and Normal rules say it's possible to not have a Main role despite the existance of a backup. Going through the Normal archives i noticed that it's more frequent to have a Main if a backup is present, but if there is any, i think it's probably a Mafia neighborizer.

When i saw your vote, Menalque doubts, and having Ben Quickhammer in here i REALLY did not want to repeat d1. Make of it what you wish, i don't want to allow people to survive d4 because "hey, i just sheeped the confmason, don't look at me".

[Farkran]

I am the neighboriser!

Hi there. Who's in your neighboorhood? Are you allowed to quote posts from it in here (i honestly don't know if there is a rule against that, i know that you can't quote mod posts, but PT are different?)

[Farkran]

@mena I actually thought you were, lol.

While we wait for no one to claim they're a neighborizer, can we resume working on where we left before my claim?

I don't think flubber is scummy from that exchange, and i still think it's likely there's no double bus. I still find Rabid scummy, and waiting for him to answer what we would have done after a Ben flip.

[Farkran]

Why is it unlikely there was a double bus?

Because there's hardly any room for that in the sheeps wagon from my pov.

Out of {Egix, Farkran, Menalque, Rabid, bob, Ben} i am very strong on Egix and bob being town, ofc myself, so i am left with you, Rabid and Ben. {Rabid, ben} is very unlikely as a game solve so it would be either {Menalque, Ben} or {Menalque, Rabid}, and i am kinda not scumreading you rn, despite having some very bad reads in this game.

And there's also the fact that pp is by far my highest scumread and he's not even trying to change that. I am fairly confident in a {Rabid, PP} solve rn.

[Farkran]

I mean even {PP, Flubber} is more likely than a double bus if you ask me. It's not like they wouldn't mutually bus themselves if they were paired at this point. I'm not scumreading flubber though, so i think 1 in, 1 out is more likely.

[Farkran]

There's an outside chance of egix vote parking on sheep and then not being around to or feeling uncomfortable pulling their vote off of sheep to save him

I'm entertaining this more remembering garmr was a town cw to egix

This might make sense, although... would you think egix is within his scumrange for driving a bus on his partner and produce such a good display of dissociative potential (1984)?

Question not specifically directed at flubber, anyone may answer

[Farkran]

So, we're just waiting for Ben/Egix/Bob to come in and claim they aren't the Neighborizer? Yes?

Wait what's this about?

Oh hi. 2127.

[Farkran]

I see what you mean @flubber, but i would think it's quite bothersome to actually remember to do that, make it feel genuine and at the same time maintain a decent progression while bussing your partner. Is that within both egix and sheeps scumrange?

And there's also the matter of who's the 3rd scum if we assume sheeps and egix are able to perform like that - i've reread sheeps and egix ISO several times and i don't see any other plausible team member in that gamesolve

[Farkran]

bob, are you a neighborizer by chance?

[Farkran]

Ok, so that leaves me with

A) Ben the Neighborizer who neighborized tchill and luv (...yeah, unlikely).
B) no neighborizer present in this game
C) a mafia neighborizer not willing to claim and who also refused to use his night action, since no one claimed to have been neighborized so far.

I had wished this was more useful. Make of it what you want to. If you choose not to believe me, please gamesolve in PP > Rabid > Egix/Flubber > Menalque/bob (depending on previous flips).

I don't think i have anything else to say for today (as of irl today), i need a break. Your beloved townleader abdicates

[Farkran]

Hmm....

Mafia Loyal Neighborizer + Traitor?

This actually makes a lot of sense. I'm not accustomed to all the role modifiers, wouldn't have thought of loyal+traitor.

If this is true, it may put the game in a whole different perspective. Egix could most definitely be the traitor scum in this scenario.

[Farkran]

Or ben. Hmmm...

[Farkran]

A Traitor is considered Normal on mafiascum.net, as long as it:

is Mafia-aligned
knows the identities of all of the Mafia team
identity is not known by the Mafia team, although they should know a Traitor exists
cannot be recruited to join the rest of the Mafia team, and (unless Bulletproof) is killed if shot
is endgamed if all other Mafia are dead
gives a "guilty" result to Cops, an "innocent" result to Gunsmiths, and a "Traitor" result to Role Cops
If you want a Traitor that cannot be killed by its team, make it a Bulletproof Traitor. (A Traitor that investigates as though they were town is not Normal, because the Godfather role is not Normal.) Roles like this should return full names (e.g. Bulletproof Traitor) to a Role Cop investigating them.

As a Traitor is Mafia-aligned, it counts towards the Mafia's win condition. For example, in the situation of 1 Goon, 1 Traitor and 2 Townies, the game ends in a Mafia win.

Need to have this here as a reminder

[Farkran]

I have taken a look at This game setup thread featuring a loyal neighborizer + traitor.

3 town PRs are considered low power for the town, so i think in our case 2 masons + 1 nea + 1 backup neighborizer would make sense for balance if put against goon + loyal nbrz + traitor PR.

Now, given that

the traitor is endgamed

if the two mafia are killed, i believe we should try and aim at people with associative potential with sheeps as well as high individual scum equity. This also lowers the chances of a bus (same as a whiteflag setup) and lowers even more the chances of a double bus (traitor knows who his partners are).

This... once again means PP to me, but i liked him pointing out the possibility of loyal nbrz + traitor. There could be scum intent in that if coming from the traitor himself (crumbing to be recruited), however...

1. Wifom is king about the lowered bus chance in this kind of setup, but that is true only once we are aware of it (PP pointing it out would make himself scummier, and it only makes sense as a VERY heavy wifom-based move to gain towncred)
2. I wouldn't want to lynch the traitor today

scum!flubber is now much more plausible than i thought, but i don't think he's aligned with PP in this scenario, which means there's -probably- exactly one busser on the sheeps wagon.

[Farkran]

This... once again means PP to me, but i liked him pointing out the possibility of loyal nbrz + traitor.

How is that in any way town indicative?

er... read my post in its entirety? It's explained two lines below

[Farkran]

I'll try to explain myself better. This is my reasoning step-by-step:

1. The traitor is endgamed if we kill the two main mafia.
2. Sheeps was one of the main mafia (otherwise he would have flipped as TRAITOR goon).
3. This means we only need to kill the other main mafia to win this game
4. Therefore, the other main mafia and the traitor should be much more discouraged to bus sheeps in this scenario
5. This makes it more likely that there are no two bussers on the sheeps wagon
6. This makes both PP and flubber scummier than they already were
7. It was PP who pointed out the possibility of a loyal nbrz + traitor setup

Conclusion: would PP make himself scummier if he was scum? I wouldn't know, but i think that he would do so only if he was the traitor, so i'm less willing to lynch him today.

pedit: ok, i think you got it

[Farkran]

I mean... he's obviously wrong. Scum loyal neighborizer that if lynched gives TOWN a loyal neighborizer (stronger than a cop) is batshit crazy levels of swing. So I don't see why scum wouldn't suggest an incorrect theory.

Why do you think he is OBVIOUSLY wrong? Swing is not necessarily frowned upon, as mastina says in the thread i linked. It's up to the mod.

By the way, i think i would become a neighborizer (not loyal) if the mafia neighborizer dies. My role says backup neighborizer, not backup loyal neighborizer, but i don't know if this is how it works.

pedit: sure, that is also a possibility. Do you think i am a named townie then?

[Farkran]

Eh, ok then. Unless Ben is a neighborizer, and i don't think he is, i am either a named townie or there is a mafia neighborizer.

Feel free to flip me to verify this, as i actually think it is VERY VERY likely that this setup is mafia loyal nbrz + traitor.

Once i flip, i think the best course of action is

Flubber > Ben > Rabid and hopefully you can endgame the traitor before we lose in lylo.

[Farkran]

Didn't Fark refuse to claim at L-1 in Newbie 1951?

I was mason in that game, i knew the full setup and scum did not.

This allowed me to pr spec in the day thread and avoid bs claim from scum. In fact epiccreeper was counterclaimed and that won us the game.

It was good play, same as it was good play to claim now in this game.

[Farkran]

I mean... he's obviously wrong. Scum loyal neighborizer that if lynched gives TOWN a loyal neighborizer (stronger than a cop) is batshit crazy levels of swing. So I don't see why scum wouldn't suggest an incorrect theory.

Why do you think he is OBVIOUSLY wrong? Swing is not necessarily frowned upon, as mastina says in the thread i linked. It's up to the mod.

By the way, i think i would become a neighborizer (not loyal) if the mafia neighborizer dies. My role says backup neighborizer, not backup loyal neighborizer, but i don't know if this is how it works.

pedit: sure, that is also a possibility. Do you think i am a named townie then?

Can anyone confirm how this works? Because it seems to me that the large part of opness in my role would be the loyal modifier rather than the neighborizer ability itself

[Farkran]

Actually this is a very important question about game mechanics, so

@mod: without confirming my role or the existance of a neighborizer in this game, ASSUMING that there is a mafia loyal neighborizer and i am a town backup neighborizer, in case of his death would i become a town neighborizer or a town loyal neighborizer?

[Farkran]

Also UNVOTE: for the time being

[Farkran]

V/LA until 12/1/19

Isn't this ... a bit too much?

By the way, clear and simple question: are you a Neighborizer in this game?

[Farkran]

Actually this is a very important question about game mechanics, so

@mod: without confirming my role or the existance of a neighborizer in this game, ASSUMING that there is a mafia loyal neighborizer and i am a town backup neighborizer, in case of his death would i become a town neighborizer or a town loyal neighborizer?

In that case, you would become a neighborizer who is not loyal.

Thanks, that's what i thought. I think this makes a lot more sense balance-wise for this setup.

[Farkran]

I am basically certain the setup is loyal nbrz + traitor now. Unless Ben comes back and claims Neighborizer, i see little chance for me to be a named townie. There are very few occurrences of a backup modifier without its main in the Normal archives, and i think the setup would be way scumsided even if we were put against 3 goons (= neapolitan would've been negative utility).

PP is either the traitor or town. It makes zero sense for him to be the mafia nbrz and openly speculate about the traitor scenario, so i don't think it's a good move to take him down today.

So, i say we lynch flubber today. He statistically has the highest chance to be part of the main mafia team + is not without individual scum equity.

If he flips town, we can afford 1 more mislynch tomorrow on {Egix, Rabid, Menalque, bob, Ben}. We can talk about this in d4.

If we get to lylo without any red flip, we

always

lynch PP as he is probably the traitor, therefore we gain an additional day before endgame.

If you still do not believe me though, lynch me today rather than later, so the remaining town can work with almost 100% certainty that we are in the setup i described, and proceed with Flubber tomorrow. I think lynching Ben today is a waste.

[Farkran]

neapolitan would've been negative utility

Wat

Goon flips vanilla to a neapolitan, iirc?

[Farkran]

Oh. Yeah, i actually thought it was the Vanilla Cop.

Whatever, named townie is still way less likely than nbrz + traitor.

[Farkran]

I am kinda tired with this game, seriously. I thought claiming today would have made things easier, not harder, but apparently i have irredeemable playstyle differences and scumhunt strategies than the majority of you guys do. The setup also goes against my odds, and i guess from your pov it makes sense if i were lying today, even if i have the perfect VCA. These things are more important to me than they are to you.

Personally, i would have never lynched garmr, i would probably have shot menalque in d1 eod if i was a dayvig, i would probably have already hammered pp today if the neighborizer thing didn't came up. I like to tryhard, i hate pointless snarkitude, i am emotional, impulsive, and childish at times. But i still think i am correct.

It's sad when town decides to believe scum over -what is, imo- good reasoning, but that's also what happened when i was scum in the game in my sig so i guess i'm eating some of my own medicine. I have nothing to add, i'm convinced of my own theory and unless something new happens i'm only lynching in {Farkran, Flubber} today, with preference to flubber.

[Farkran]

so farkum you want to lynch yourself

If you don't believe my claim, i think i am a better lynch than Ben, yes. I don't want town to continue playing having doubts on the setup.

[Farkran]

It's sad when town decides to believe scum over -what is, imo- good reasoning

He says, when the primary person pushing his wagon is conftown...

That's exactly what i mean. You're believing scum over me.

[Farkran]

What are you talking about?

100% of my reasons for scumreading you originated from me, and not from anyone else.

You're still not believing me, despite correct VCA and what i think is good reasoning. I don't know what to tell you.

[Farkran]

I am kinda tired with this game, seriously. I thought claiming today would have made things easier, not harder, but apparently i have irredeemable playstyle differences and scumhunt strategies than the majority of you guys do. The setup also goes against my odds, and i guess from your pov it makes sense if i were lying today, even if i have the perfect VCA. These things are more important to me than they are to you.

Personally, i would have never lynched garmr, i would probably have shot menalque in d1 eod if i was a dayvig, i would probably have already hammered pp today if the neighborizer thing didn't came up. I like to tryhard, i hate pointless snarkitude, i am emotional, impulsive, and childish at times. But i still think i am correct.

It's sad when town decides to believe scum over -what is, imo- good reasoning, but that's also what happened when i was scum in the game in my sig so i guess i'm eating some of my own medicine. I have nothing to add, i'm convinced of my own theory and unless something new happens i'm only lynching in {Farkran, Flubber} today, with preference to flubber.

I guess AtE is your last resource

Yeah, i was expecting that. You deserve it. You're still probably the traitor though, but at least you started playing towny after that.

[Farkran]

Farkran, if you're town, you've already shown a lack of willingness to listen to others' viewpoints. With this neighborizer business you've made it worse because now you're basing your worldview, and all your reads, on a random assumption that you can't justify but can't be talked out of.

I disagree with my lack of willingness to listen to others' viewpoints. I am not willing to listen to bad reasoning, such as Menalque's in d1 eod, or PP playstyle. As for the neighborizer stuff, try to see it from my POV: if there WAS a town neighborizer, i would have helped GREATLY to narrow the lynchpool, and we would probably have won the game over it.

Quite frankly, I don't expect you to contribute anything more to town, if you are town. So independent of the fact that I scumread you, I will not feel that bad about mislynching you.

I agree with this.

[Farkran]

You're still not believing me, despite correct VCA and what i think is good reasoning.

How do you know the VCA is correct?

I mean my VCA is correct. I was outside garmr's wagon, and strongly pushed to lynch inside that wagon which ended into lynching scum!sheeps.

[Farkran]

Because to be clear, the goal of that rant post was not to convince people to lynch you because you're dead weight. It's to try to get you to change what you're doing so we can actually have productive discussions instead of talking past each other.

No, the point of that post is to challenge you all into believing me or not believing me. I agree that i am deadweight now, so you either believe my claim and make me conftown, or you remove me from the game while learning setup info.

[Farkran]

Farkran is not that simple.

Players can not believe you, believe you or believe that you do infact believe that. Plus a few others.

It is quite simple. I am being scumread for my claim, so it is pointless for me to remain in game if you do not believe it. Either you do, or you remove me and learn the truth about it.

[Farkran]

I don't scumread you for your claim.

It does not matter. If you scumread me, you're not going to believe my claim, am i correct?

[Farkran]

Because to be clear, the goal of that rant post was not to convince people to lynch you because you're dead weight. It's to try to get you to change what you're doing so we can actually have productive discussions instead of talking past each other.

No, the point of that post is to challenge you all into believing me or not believing me. I agree that i am deadweight now, so you either believe my claim and make me conftown,

or you remove me from the game while learning setup info

.

But if a confirmed townie is disagreeing with you... do we really learn anything though?

You learn more about the setup, and you remove a dangerous player in lylo. I did agree with PP on that specific sentence.

[Farkran]

Stop talking about belief like it's black and white, either I believe you or I don't. Very few things in mafia are black and white.

I think you are likely scum, meaning I think your claim is likely false.

How does it make not black and white? If you scumread me, you should lynch me - then you learn that my claim was true, and proceed playing better with that additional info. On the other hand, if you believe my claim, it makes me conf!town, we improve lynchpool based on that claim, and we see the game from a new perspective. It is pretty black and white to me.

This is an example of good reasoning, more incoming

[Farkran]

Farkran:

Just to make the discussion easier for me on mobile, can you sum up the main points of your "good reasoning" in a few sentences, please?

1) Did not want to join garmr wagon as it was evidently scum motivated -

i was correct

2) Lynching inside the garmr wagon -

bringed us good results

3) PP did nothing to help the town before today, snarkiness and waving are bad if coming from town -

my personal opinion

4) I don't think Egix is bussing: wagon driver, less bussing potential if there is a traitor -

my personal opinion

5) My claim would have helped greatly if there was actually a town neighborizer -

my personal opinion

From my POV these are all examples of good reasoning in this game.

[Farkran]

What should I do if I think, say, there's a 65% chance you are scum?

Vote to lynch me (which you are already doing).

[Farkran]

None of that is reasoning; those are conclusions. You certainly have no lack of conclusions this game. What I want to know is why you believe these.

Sorry, i thought i had been adamant, at least wrt points 2 to 5.

1) We had been stalling the game for MORE than the duration of the original deadline, then suddenly a NEW wagon gets to lynch in less than 24 hours -> evidently scum motivated
2) Given point 1, i think this is self-explanatory. In case it is not: we have a lynchpool of 7 people and a scumteam of 3 people, it was very likely that there were more than 1 scum on wagon, therefore we had to lynch inside it.
3) PP played anti-town and had very bad VCA, therefore i think he is likely scum.
4) This is reasoning, i don't know what else to add
5) I mean, wouldn't we have narrowed our lynchpool GREATLY if we could confirm a neighborizer and its backup?

[Farkran]

I could pick apart that reasoning at length and explain why I disagree with most of it.

Would that be a waste of time? Can you take my word for it that I don't find it compelling without me needing to prove it?

Yes, it would be a waste of time, because the point here is not whether i did produce good reasoning or not. I was being frustrated for not being believed, but that is my problem, not yours, and it does not help us win this game.

What does help us win this game is whether you (all) believe me or not: from there on, we can improve our lynchpool and see the game in the correct perspective. That's all i care about.

I had already concluded in the middle of d1 that our playstyles, modus operandi, reasoning basis are very very different and i am a player who does not belong in this towngroup, at least at my current skill/experience level. I still want to win though.

[Farkran]

Farkran, if you're town, you've already shown a lack of willingness to listen to others' viewpoints. With this neighborizer business you've made it worse because now you're basing your worldview, and all your reads, on a random assumption that you can't justify but can't be talked out of.

Quite frankly, I don't expect you to contribute anything more to town, if you are town. So independent of the fact that I scumread you, I will not feel that bad about mislynching you.

For the record, the thing that is most frustrating to me is that you specifically were not willing to listen to my viewpoint when you declared that it was OBVIOUS we could never be in the neighborizer + traitor setup. You are conf!town, so i cannot even argue that you're lying by scum motivation, and that only frustrates me even further.

I am convinced that we are in a neighborizer + traitor setup, and this changes my perspective about this game A LOT. If you think it is more likely i am a named townie, you can talk me about that because there is a chance that you are right and i am wrong.

If you think it is more likely that i am lying and therefore scum, i am obviously not willing to listen because i have a role pm that proves me correct over your assumption that i am scum, and the only way we can get to an agreement is lynching me.

[Farkran]

For the record, the thing that is most frustrating to me is that you specifically were not willing to listen to my viewpoint when you declared that it was OBVIOUS we could never be in the neighborizer + traitor setup. You are conf!town, so i cannot even argue that you're lying by scum motivation, and that only frustrates me even further.

I'm sorry you felt that way. I was stuck at the beginning there-- I couldn't, and still can't, see why you think traitor/loyal neighborizer is likely at all, and until I do see, I can't really listen to an argument that depends on it as a premise.

For the record, it seems like my conftown status saved you from an even worse fate-- doubting someone's motives because they disagree with you. That's a surefire path to a town implosion. The vast majority of the time, when someone disagrees with you, they're not secretly trying to get everyone not to listen to you. They just have a different opinion.

Ok then, we are 9 days to deadline, we have time. I am willing to listen to why you are so strongly convinced that i am a named townie.

I am basing my assumption that we are in a neighborizer + traitor because:

1) There were very few occurrences of a backup without its main in the archives. True that there were also few (one?) occurrences of a mafia nbrz + traitor, but i think that has more to do with the specificity of the setup, whereas the backup modifier by itself is fairly frequent.
2) I don't think this setup would be unbalanced. I was wrong on the neapolitan investigative ability, but we forgot to mention our neap was even-night.
3) it makes a huge amount of sense with how the game stalled so much lately. Not only town is afraid to lynch town, but scum are also afraid to lynch their traitor partner.

Point 3 specifically changes greatly my perspective about Egix and Ben, and the fact that it was PP who brought it up also changes my perspective about him.

[Farkran]

like I don't really care whether there definitely is or isn't a traitor unless it's gonna help me catch scum which I don't think it is

feels like this entire debate has been a distraction

So, uh, yeah, but i think we're in the case where it is gonna help you catch scum, to be honest.

[Farkran]

So does anyone think fark is a scum loyal neighborizer and that's why they're so adamant on there being a traitor?

Can you elaborate on why i would do that?

[Farkran]

For the record, the thing that is most frustrating to me is that you specifically were not willing to listen to my viewpoint when you declared that it was OBVIOUS we could never be in the neighborizer + traitor setup. You are conf!town, so i cannot even argue that you're lying by scum motivation, and that only frustrates me even further.

I'm sorry you felt that way. I was stuck at the beginning there-- I couldn't, and still can't, see why you think traitor/loyal neighborizer is likely at all, and until I do see, I can't really listen to an argument that depends on it as a premise.

For the record, it seems like my conftown status saved you from an even worse fate-- doubting someone's motives because they disagree with you. That's a surefire path to a town implosion. The vast majority of the time, when someone disagrees with you, they're not secretly trying to get everyone not to listen to you. They just have a different opinion.

Ok then, we are 9 days to deadline, we have time. I am willing to listen to why you are so strongly convinced that i am a named townie.

I am basing my assumption that we are in a neighborizer + traitor because:

1) There were very few occurrences of a backup without its main in the archives. True that there were also few (one?) occurrences of a mafia nbrz + traitor, but i think that has more to do with the specificity of the setup, whereas the backup modifier by itself is fairly frequent.
2) I don't think this setup would be unbalanced. I was wrong on the neapolitan investigative ability, but we forgot to mention our neap was even-night.
3) it makes a huge amount of sense with how the game stalled so much lately. Not only town is afraid to lynch town, but scum are also afraid to lynch their traitor partner.

Point 3 specifically changes greatly my perspective about Egix and Ben, and the fact that it was PP who brought it up also changes my perspective about him.

@SS still waiting on this

[Farkran]

@SS still waiting on this

Oh, sorry.
1. I don't think that's how the math works? If we look at past setups, the occurrences of town backup neighborizer + scum loyal neighborizer are zero, so you can't say the roles occur together frequently. And "backup without the original" is more common than "mafia loyal neighborizer."

2. 3 scum is a LOT different from 2 scum + traitor. The setup already has two masons and an even-night neapolitan, all of whom can be cleared on setup spec, and the neapolitan might get a result as well. That's too much for a traitor, especially given scum would have to have no other investigative or roleblocking power.

3. I mean... if there's a traitor scum probably have it narrowed down to a few people, and town apathy is common and this game has been apathetic since it started, and plus, scum have to lynch SOMEONE, it's not like they can win by sitting back and getting town to NL six times in a row. I think this theory is very remote.

1. Sorry, that was not what i meant - i meant to say that backup <anything> and universal backups are fairly common in normal setups, whereas the traitor modifier is much rarer. I never said that the roles occur together frequently. I meant to say that we have a larger sample of backup modifiers compared to traitors, so i don't think it is fair to measure the "backup without main" ratio VS "neighborizer + traitor" ratio with such a small sample of traitor setups.

2. Yes, 3 scum is a LOT different than 2 scum + traitor. I agree that it makes the scum team much weaker, and if we happened to lynch the mafia nbrz, the game would have been slightly more townsided, but not that much - my new ability would be to talk to people privately, without any investigative potential given that i'd not be loyal. However, consider the contrary: if we don't lynch the neighborizer, the town power force is composed of 2 masons + 1 even-night neap + named townie. Looking at the recent archives of 13p Normals (see below), town is consistently stronger than that. Plus, we have no idea what modifiers could be attached to the traitor. He could be a multitasking rolecop/doctor/anything for what we know.

3. It's not like scum wouldn't lynch out of fear of taking out the traitor, just that they would also keep their eyes open as opposed to lynch anything that moves like they would do in a more standardized game. I would think that they would speculate in their PT who could or could not be their hidden ally rather than doing stuff at random - of course, in the end they have to push against someone and that's probably what happened against garmr for him to accumulate that many votes so quickly.

Town power force in recent 13p Normals

2073.

2 mason + 1 voyeur + 1 loyal fruit vendor VS 2 goons + 1 complex fruit vendor

2071.

2 mason + 1 bulletproof IC + 1 even-night detective VS 1 mafia informed + 1 odd-night vanilla cop + goon

2070.

1 jk + 1 miller odd-night loyal neighborizer + 1 cop + 1 ascetic 1-shot bulletproof VS 2 goons + rolecop

2068.

2 neighbors + 3 masons + 1 loud indecisive doctor VS 2 goons + 1 loud traffic analyst

2062.

1 watcher + 1 disloyal vigilante + 1 town informed + 1 3-shot loyal neighborizer + 1 JOAT (voyeur, follower, tracker) VS 1 mafia informed + 2 goons + 1 traitor

The list goes on, but i mean look at that power force. 2 masons + 1 even-night nea + 1 named townie is shit compared to those examples.

[Farkran]

So does anyone think fark is a scum loyal neighborizer and that's why they're so adamant on there being a traitor?

Can you elaborate on why i would do that?

Seems to be a pretty natural place for the idea to come from

So, do you think i would be leading a bus on sheeps d2 into fakeclaiming a named townie today when we were probably going to do what i have been suggesting since d2 start aka lynching PP, all the while i was out the suggested PoE?

I mean i get that a lot of you people think i am bad and/or stupid, but again, this is less than a firstgamer skill level if coming from scum. As town, honestly i thought i could help by narrowing a lynchpool which was kinda too large to get us safely to lylo. I was wrong, but there's no turning back on that.

[Farkran]

2071.

2 mason + 1 bulletproof IC + 1 even-night detective VS 1 mafia informed + 1 odd-night vanilla cop + goon

Look at this specific case, which is actually very similar to what we would be in if i was a named townie.

2 masons are
1 even-night neap compared to 1 even-night detective
1 named townie compared to

1 fucking bulletproof IC

Seriously.

[Farkran]

The list goes on, but i mean look at that power force. 2 masons + 1 even-night nea + 1 named townie is shit compared to those examples.

None of those were 2 scum + traitor though.

You're right. That was:

Voyeur + UB + 2-shot Commuter + Tracker/Follower vs. Traitor Rolecop + Loyal Neighborizer + Goon

Even that one is WAY more townsided compared to 2 masons + 1 even-night neap + 1 backup nbrz VS 1 goon + 1 loyal nrbz + 1 traitor <anything>

[Farkran]

It's almost as if you weren't the reviewer for this game either...

Well yeah but I'm still going to judge balance based on my own sensibilities.

Your sensibilities are proven wrong by facts listed in the archives though.

[Farkran]

Even that one is WAY more townsided compared to 2 masons + 1 even-night neap + 1 backup nbrz VS 1 goon + 1 loyal nrbz + 1 traitor

No it's not, this one has two conftown out of the gate and the potential for a few more. That setup has maybe one conftown if you want to setup spec the tracker town.

This could be discussed at length but ultimately i think you would at least agree that it wouldn't be LESS townsided than my suggested setup here.

[Farkran]

Your sensibilities are proven wrong by facts listed in the archives though.

My sensibilities are about what games should be passed, rather than what games actually are. Of course I could be wrong, but I don't think I'm wrong in saying, for instance, that that bulletproof IC game wasn't balanced.

Yeah, the point however is that 1. unbalanced games DO pass the setup review, 2. my suggested setup for this game is not unbalanced.

I think we can move on from setup spec and try to determine what to do in either of these 3 scenarios, and see if there is any commong ground

1. My claim is true but i am a named townie
2. My claim is true and we are in a traitor setup
3. I am lying and scum

[Farkran]

Not sure I do agree. Where's town's power in that setup? Tracker is weak if town doesn't know there's a traitor, voyeur is useless, commuter is worse than useless, and UB is only as good as the (mediocre) PR's it can inherit.

Ok... where's town power in OUR setup, besides the two masons? Because that means 2 conf-towns + 1 even-night investigative, and my role is negative utility for the even night investigative (i would produce a non-vanilla result same as scum)

[Farkran]

1. My claim is true but i am a named townie
2. My claim is true and we are in a traitor setup
3. I am lying and scum

I mean there's no way to tell between 1 and 2, and we have no PR's who care if there's a traitor, so the answer is pretty much "lynch scum" in all cases.

I'm still fairly convinced this is case 2, but let's say there's not enough consensus to tell the difference. How do we find scum in either cases? I suggested my strategy in 2242+2247+2261. What do you suggest?

[Farkran]

...that we try to lynch scum?

Are you asking for my reads?

Yeah, sorry, i still ask questions under the assumption that you'd have a playstyle similar to mine but i keep forgetting that you don't. My scumreads would change based on whether we are in option 1 or option 2, but i guess the majority of you guys would still lynch your highest SR regardless of mechanical reasoning. I'm going to accept that we have different values when playing mafia and leave this discussion for postgame.

I'm comfortable lynching in {Fark, Rabid, PP} today.

So... not the best lynchpool for today to me, i'm still in the scum!flubber world, but traitor!PP would make sense as a compromise. Rabid is currently my second highest individual scumread, mech-reasoning removed, but i wouldn't lynch him today

[Farkran]

VOTE: Flubber

Might as well, after that bad display of a soft-push in 2367

[Farkran]

You wouldn't lynch your second-highest scumread when there are two scum alive?

Uhh...

No, i would lynch my first one (PP) or whom i think it's actually scum by (what i think is) proper reasoning, aka flubber

[Farkran]

It's a crazy play to claim like that as either alignment so why would you basically ask me if I think you're crazy

Why is it a crazy play as town?

Serious question

[Farkran]

VOTE: Flubber

Might as well, after that bad display of a soft-push in 2367

You want to talk about bad soft pushes?

How about rabid trying to shade me over a 10 min difference in catch up posts?

2nd highest scumread, will probably lynch him tomorrow

[Farkran]

To claim out of nowhere and then use it to speculate on roles we have next to no evidence of existing?

That honestly seems very rudimentary and self explanatory to understand

Lynchpool was too large, town was going in the wrong direction. We are in day 3, a massclaim was unlikely, and i could add 2 more conftowns to our list. Try to look this from a honest!fark pov, and tell me if it would be crazy, especially if a neighborizer existed. Remember that it was very likely, from the point of view of my role, that a neighborizer would indeed exist.

[Farkran]

Once your vote sits on me long enough to be a vanity wagon will you vote rabid with me?

I'm the only one, currently, who is willing to lynch you today. Does this make you uncomfortable? It's not like anyone is listening to me about this, i don't understand why you would try to convince me to vote elsewhere rather than try to convince other people to lynch me, if you assume i am wrong or scum.

[Farkran]

I really don't think scum-Flubber leaves me alive over january.

This actually makes sense, but you are masons, not independent conftowns. Why would your mason partner NOT want to lynch flubber if you do? Also, after having picked sheeps among the garmr wagoner largely based on Tchill NKA, would you think a nk on you was likely if flub was scum?

Also sorry about this but i still think you do not make a good town leader (by your own admission), regardless of being right or wrong - LUV was likely worse, but i don't know how january would have performed if he was alive - and probably neither did the killer, who didn't want to take the chance.

[Farkran]

Why would your mason partner NOT want to lynch flubber if you do?

I mean I did tell january to go after my scumreads, especially Flubber, if I died, but that doesn't mean that she would agree, nor would she necessarily push as strongly as I would have. I think all else being equal if scum are going to kill a mason they're going to kill the one more likely to be a nuisance, so the fact that they killed a total question mark meant they weren't as afraid of me.

Yeah, i mean... not sure about what you'd have done, but i'd have killed a question mark over you a thousand times. I see no reason to kill a player who wasn't sure about his reads and wasn't listened to during both d1 and d2, especially when we lynched sheeps out of analysis of n1k.

[Farkran]

I'm not sure to what extent this is AI about flubber but sheeps did single him out several times during his progression

Spoiler: flub singled out

Mini Normal 2106

Reviewed by northsidegal and schadd_

Current Deadline:

(expired on 2019-11-06 00:00:00)

Players:

1. GeorgeBailey*
   
2. Detective Penguin
   
3. Garmr
   
4. Saudade
   Something_Smart
   
5. Flubbernugget*
   
6. Egix96
   
7. Tchill13
   
8. bob3141
   
9. sheepsaysmeep
   
10. ofrhz
    
11. Farkran
    
12. benhalkum*
    
13. Lil Uzi Vert*

*Prods

GeorgeBailey
Detective Penguin
Garmr
Something_Smart
Flubbernugget
Egix96
Tchill13
bob3141
sheepsaysmeep
ofrhz
Farkran
benhalkum
Lil Uzi Vert

sheep farkran tchill ssmart dpenguin are villas

flubber can loosely follow

; i wolfed with him a while back in one of my last games on this site and if he was wolf concerned about how he looks he could definitely be doing a lot more to look villagery but so far just feels like he’s working at his own pace instead of trying to impress

tchil (55)
farkran (44)
sheep (39)
ss (32)

dp (22)
--
bob (20)
luv (19)

garmr (15)
ben (13)
egix (12)
george (8)
ofhrz (8)

sort by postcount works pretty well with my list actually though i mightve been subconsciously influenced

only issues dont remember bob, luv, ss having so many posts but this looks like something i'd work with today

forgot flubber (18)

Menalque
Detective Penguin
Something_Smart
Flubbernugget
Egix96
bob3141
sheepsaysmeep
Rabid Schnauzer
Farkran
benhalkum
Lil Uzi Vert

sheep menal penguin ss rabid fark

@fark my lynchpool is flubber egix bob ben

though

the latter three more likeable

but still in the end lynchable

All of these seems to point at a "nullscum" read of flub lately which is around where scum usually place their partners at. I mean in my experience i have seen quite infrequently a hard townread or hard scumread of a scumpartner. Right above or right below null is the perfect place for you know, like, "i'm ok lynching him but let's not please".

+ i think sheeps interactions with flub were more directed at creating wagon momentum on someone rather than "just interacting" which is what i thought he was doing with egix.

I have to admit this is mostly inductive and tunnel-biased reasoning at this point, but it does seem plausible whereas i can't see any association potential between sheeps/egix and sheeps/ben for instance

[Farkran]

From the other side however we find this

Spoiler: flub on sheeps

Guys arw qe townreading sheep or nah

I think I am

Rabid, fark, sheep, PP, Ben, Bob, egix, flub

Inside this, I won't lynch Men, fark, bob, or pp

Those are pretty much the only content wrt sheeps from flub

[Farkran]

I'll try to make a recap, feel free to correct me if i am wrong

Farkran:

wants to lynch in {Menalque, PP, Ben, Flubber, Sheeps}, (1604)

Rabid:

wants to lynch in {Fark, sheep, Ben, egix, flub} with preference to Ben, (1628) -

[later denied and amended to only {Ben}]

Egix:

wants to lynch in {PP, Flubber, Sheeps}, preference to sheeps and flubber, (1562, 1618, 1646)

bob:

wants to lynch {Flubber}, (1522)

SS:

wants to lynch {Flubber}, (1621)

Flubber:

wants to lynch in {Rabid, Egix, Ben, Sheeps}, (1621)

Menalque:

wants to lynch in {Fark, sheep, Ben, egix, flub}, (1623)

PP:

wants to lynch in {Egix, Fark}, (1530, 1634)

sheeps:

i think just {Ben} now. Perhaps Fark. Unclear. (1338, 1683) -

[later amended in 1697]

Ben:

wants to lynch {SS} but conceded the theory, now i don't know. (1632)

LUV:

MIA

This is my d2 recap about readlists. Flubber was the highest general consensus scumread back then, although the wagon never reached more than 3 votes (VC 2.02 and 2.03 in posts 1600, 1650). I'd think scum!sheeps would have been fine pushing there if flub was town?

Does anyone know if this is plausible for sheeps by meta?

[Farkran]

Actually he did that on garmr so i'd definitely think he would

[Farkran]

Happy thanksgiving to everyone who celebrates it!

Here in italy we don't, but knowing a lot of people from the US i thought it'd make sense to send my best regards <3

[Farkran]

Unexpected pagetop

[Farkran]

Your sensibilities are proven wrong by facts listed in the archives though.

My sensibilities are about what games should be passed, rather than what games actually are. Of course I could be wrong, but I don't think I'm wrong in saying, for instance, that that bulletproof IC game wasn't balanced.

Yeah, the point however is that 1. unbalanced games DO pass the setup review, 2. my suggested setup for this game is not unbalanced.

I think we can move on from setup spec and try to determine what to do in either of these 3 scenarios, and see if there is any commong ground

1. My claim is true but i am a named townie
2. My claim is true and we are in a traitor setup
3. I am lying and scum

I dont know if you already mentioned this but if you are town what promted you decide to roleclaim?

Yeah i already explained it several posts ago however i'll explain again:

From my point of view ot was very likely that a neighborizer existed so i thought i would help narrowing the lynchpool. I did this now because SS was going in the wrong direction with his vote.

[Farkran]

Ill take it from teh fact that you claim to be a backup. Thus if you are town you would beleive there to be one. So that so far adds up but how did you think it would narrow down the lynch pool?

Imagine for a second that a town neighborizer existed. I would have confirmed town both myself and the neighborizer, removing two players from our lynchpool, which in addition to SS would make 3.

Moreover, since SS had wrongly placed his vote on me, i would have prevented a town mislynch. That's what was going on in my mind.

Instead, no neighborizer claimed, so it turned into a mess. I did not expect that. As you have said in your next post, usually if a backup exist, its main role also exists, but in this case it does not. I was surprised just as much as you all.

[Farkran]

Then, i and SS speculated a lot about the setup of this game to determine wheter it makes sense or not for a mafia neighborizer to exist. I suggest that you read the previous pages, but, long story short, i think that we have a mafia loyal neighborizer and a mafia traitor. This is not confirmed, but i think it's probably true for a lot of reasons that are plausible to me.

If i am correct, i think flubber is the mafia loyal neighborizer. Again, explanation about this is in the previous pages.

SS disagrees.

SS disagree

[Farkran]

Also, now that a couple days passed since my claim and everyone posted, i think i can safely add this to our discussion:

No one has counterclaimed me by claiming a town power role. If i were lying, town power roles cannot be limited to 2 masons and 1 even-night neap as that would be too weak.

Not sure if 2 masons + 1 even-night neap + 1 named townie + 1 <other town pr> would make sense in this setup, but i think it doesn't. That's too many non-VTs. The vast majority of 13p normal games feature only 3 or 4 non-VT roles.

[Farkran]

Sorry I just got kind of bored and I’m waiting to effort again once I have some time

I got really burned out on the setup spec

Fark that last post is not a particularly good look, you realise that right? I mean I don’t think we’d like any other PR to claim this early anyway

I don't want other prs to claim if there is any. I just added that last post because i can understand the doubts about my claim, and i don't want to fuck up this game because of that.

My role was specifically useful to claim because 1. I'm basically a VT so i don't care if i get nked, 2. i would have validated a neighborizer too. If i were any other pr i wouldn't have claimed until useful.

[Farkran]

Imagine for a second that a town neighborizer existed. I would have confirmed town both myself and the neighborizer

This actually isn't true, I would have said that one of you was probably scum.

Why? The neighborizer could have confirmed his claim by having a neighborhood - otherwise we would obviously have lynched him.

If he validated his claim and therefore confirming he was a town neighborizer, what were the chances of me claiming backup neighborizer specifically when there

is

a town neighborizer?

[Farkran]

So we would both be scum, not 1 and 1. Why do we BOTH claim in that scenario? Are we stupid?

[Farkran]

I mean, that would go like this:

Scum!fark: "hey, i'm backup nbrz"
My scumpartner: "oh hey! I'm the nbrz"
All of the town: "ok nrighborizer, who's in your neighborhood?"
My scumpartner: "oh, nobody"
All of the town: "oh ok we just believe you anyway, gl"

...or, like, not.

[Farkran]

His thought processes post-claim look scummy though

Explain how, and scumcase me please

[Farkran]

So we would both be scum, not 1 and 1.

Not necessarily... it could be town neighborizer and scum backup neighborizer, or vice versa.

Ok. Say i am scum.
How do i claim backup neighborizer before a town neighborizer claim?
But, more specifically, why do i claim backup neighborizer

without

a neighborizer?

If it's the main neighborizer the scummy one instead, he'd need to prove it by having people in the neighborhood. If he does, then it might make sense, but i'd be conftowned, otherwise there's once again not enough town power. The scum neighborizer would also be likely conftowned though, which is the worst case scenario after my claim. I admit i didn't think about this, but it's also one of the least likely developments to expect. In fact, it did not happen.

[Farkran]

No one has counterclaimed me by claiming a town power role. If i were lying, town power roles cannot be limited to 2 masons and 1 even-night neap as that would be too weak.

Your role with 2 masons and a Neap nerfs the Neap without adding town power making the setup even weaker for town.

Yeah that's exactly why i think we're in the mafia neighborizer + traitor setup, that's the only thing that makes sense to me, because mafia would weak enough to justify my role.

This is also what makes me put so much weight on scum being outside sheeps!wagon since bussing sheeps would be really bad from scum pov - which means i have good chances to be correct on you or flubber, and i already explained why i think it's flubber.

[Farkran]

I really don't think scum-Flubber leaves me alive over january.

Sigh, now I'm getting cold feet.

UNVOTE:

Why do you think scum!flubber kills SS over january?

[Farkran]

I really don't think scum-Flubber leaves me alive over january.

Sigh, now I'm getting cold feet.

UNVOTE:

Why do you think scum!flubber kills SS over january?

Because of being scumread by him, like with Sheep and Tchill?
Do you just think Smart's reasoning isn't relevant then?

I am sorry to SS but i think all of his reasoning in this game hasn't been relevant. I know we have very different playstyles, he wants to stay true to his own and i have no right to judge him because of this, but i think he has been wrong pretty much every time in this particular game.

I have already said this, but i think it makes no sense for scum!flubber to kill SS when we have just lynched sheeps out of Tchill being scumreading him + it's not like SS was any close to a townleader, i mean he wasn't even on the wagon against sheeps + i would always kill a player whom i don't know over a SS who has been wrong on every choice in this game.

SS just happens to be conftown, so was january, is all. I suggest that you produce a read of flubber independent of what SS said.

[Farkran]

I am sorry to SS but i think all of his reasoning in this game hasn't been relevant.

Coming from the one who hard pushed both masons to a claim...

You need to take your ego down a notch or two.

You're right, this game has been pushing my emotion responses to their limit for more than one reason. I really do not want to be hostile towards you, i just think i'm correct right now, just as much as you proably think you are. I apologize about my ego in this game, and it's true i was wrong on the masons slots. We will talk about this postgame, if we are still willing to do that, ok?

[Farkran]

I think it is a huge red flag that I'm being completely ignored here.

Why? If Rabid is scum, there's only one person who should be ignoring you, everyone other than that person is town, i don't think it's a red flag.

Can we try to work together? Could you tell me why Rabid is currently your highest SR? What's your gamesolve assuming Rabid is scum?

pedit: the same could be said about flubber, but this flag is ... a bit on the orange side. Who do you think is ignoring you about flubber?

[Farkran]

I'll review sheep's ISO when I get a chance (also Egix). Sheep didn't stick out to me much at all on my chrono catchup.

@tchill - I read sheep's ISO and I'm not seeing the problem with it that you do. Also I'm not thrilled that garmr's on him. I know that you came away from you v. garmr thinking TvT, but I'm not so sure.

Damn it Rabid, why you gotta have such bad associatives...

Since these are old posts. When did you find them and what does it make you feel about rabid?


And how has you read on flubber changed. Since you unvoted him shortly after he got to l-1. What has happened between flubber beign at l-2 and l-1 that has chnaged your opinion in him being the best lynch today. Since clearly putting someone upto l-2 must mean they are strong scum read of yours. Unless you are simply sheeping the vote.

Smart mentioning Rabid as one of his scumreads was what gave me the idea to look for mentions of Sheep's name in Rabid's ISO to see what his associations with Sheep were like. I don't really think that those posts alone are enough to fully condemn Rabid, but I can't really justify keeping him in my towncore any more.

The fact that Smart townreads Flubber, along with his reasoning for it, is what's giving me doubts about lynching him. The issue now though is that, as Farkran suggested, there's a chance that Smart is drinking the wrong wine because, considering that we caught Sheep using NKA, would scum!flubber really want to kill someone for having a correct read on him after that?

And I feel that {Far, Menal, me, you} is likely a pure wagon, so if Flubber is town, then what are scum doing?

{Flubber, Rabid} doesn't feel the best gamesolve right now but i wouldn't rule it out completely. I'd think {flubber, pp} might be the most likely (with pp being the traitor in this case), but at this point it's a bit reachy to say for sure. There are many others plausible solves, but ultimately at this point i'd never lynch me, SS, menalque and almost never egix. That leaves {flubber, pp, rabid, ben, bob}, but i wouldn't lynch bob today. I'd never buy a double bussing solve on sheep today, at least one of those outside his wagon must flip first.

[Farkran]

I'm waiting for Ben to come back and Menalque to out his new suggestion, otherwise the day is just stalling. Thinking introspectively, i think almost every player in this game has an insane amount of ego, which makes collaboration very hard. I'm not giving up my conviction that we must flip someone outside the sheeps wagon though, so... yeah.

[Farkran]

{ss, menalque, fark, egix}
{Bob}
{Ben, rabid}
{PP, flubber}

[Farkran]

Hi titus, have fun catching up this game, lol

[Farkran]

@bob

I'm not excluding flubber/titus as solve. Rabid slot is still my 2nd highest scumread now. I am also not sure about traitor pp, but it makes sense. For today i think my strategy boils down to lynch outside the sheeps wagon. I have already provided my reasoning, regardless of setup speculation

[Farkran]

I don't have strong townreads often, but when I do, I'm almost always right about them. January was killed because scum weren't afraid of me.

I mean I don't have any really strong reads except for Flubber, so yeah, I guess.

I might need to tone down my ego, but calling what is basically a gutread your only "strong" read... Meh.

Whatever, i'm tired of arguing with you. You should apply your signature to yourself from time to time.

@Menalque can we hear your strategy?

@Titus, do you have anything to say?

[Farkran]

I might need to tone down my ego, but calling what is basically a gutread your only "strong" read... Meh.

It's not a gut read. It's based on logic, and experience to show the logic is correct. Scum kill fresh replacements when they don't want people to reevaluate.

Or scum could be smarter, and stay one step ahead than you. Have you considered this possibility?

Honestly though, this is the very essence of wifom, which is usually divided into layers. When trying to determine the layer you should be at to win, you try to reason with the elements you have.

For example, after lynching sheeps out of NKA, i would say that the "scum would only nk threats" reasoning is one layer below where we should be at - i.e. scum is aware of that and therefore it's more NAI than it was d2.

We should use a different method to scumhunt today, or at the very least try not to dish out "strong reads" out of obsolete logic.

Flubber set aside, what lets bob, egix, menalque, pp and ben INTO your process of elimination, whereas me and Rabid are out of it? At this point i would be more interested in this kind of reasoning, to see if there is at least some trace of common ground.

[Farkran]

I don’t think people are ignoring your reads...

Why should we NOT ignore his reads?

Serious question.

You say you believe there is a double bus, but this is also a gutread. There's no reasoning backing that up.

[Farkran]

I mean, if i'm missing something, you should speak up and try to cooperate to see if we can get something out our minds. Keeping things to yourselves and claiming you're right because your guts says so is not useful.

[Farkran]

We should use a different method to scumhunt today, or at the very least try not to dish out "strong reads" out of obsolete logic

I agree. What's your logic on reads?

I find reading on replacing isn't useful for two reasons.

Either 1) The group is right and thus this doesn't need another voice unless it has rock solid data

Or

2) The group is wrong, and I don't care for groupthink. I am fully capable of picking apart articulated logic.

I claimed backup neighborizer several pages ago. We made some setup speculation that made me think town power is weak - even if other people disagree / are not so sure, i believe we are in a mafia loyal neighborizer + traitor setup. Due to how things rolled out, i think flubber is the mafia neighborizer.

Aside from setup spec though, VCA says that PP was inside the d1 mislynch wagon on garmr and outside the d2 lynch against scum (sheepsaysmeep). Flubber was outside either wagon.
I don't think there was a double bus against sheeps, so i want to lynch outside that wagon.

[Farkran]

We made some setup speculation that made me think town power is weak - even if other people disagree / are not so sure, i believe we are in a mafia loyal neighborizer + traitor setup. Due to how things rolled out, i think flubber is the mafia neighborizer.

This seems odd for a player to believe. If you're a backup neighborizer, why would you backup scum? The last time I saw this used was well before your join date, and not a routine assumption.

Second, why are we assuming a mafia neighborizer at all?

Third, I like a good VCA. I'll look at that when I get a chance to tonight.

Yes, it's odd, but i can't make any other sense out of this game. I am a backup neighborizer and this, at least for me, is a fact.

No one in the town claimed neighborizer or to have been neighborizer, this is also a fact.

So, either i am a named townie (backup without main role), or there is a mafia neighborizer - presumably loyal, because otherwise i guess someone would have been neighborizer by now.

If i am a named townie, town power is composed of 2 masons + 1 even night neapolitan + 1 named townie (who acts as negative utility for the neapolitan). This is too weak for a normal setup, so i think the scum team is split into 2 main + 1 traitor, which would make them considerably weaker and on par with the town force.

[Farkran]

So, either i am a named townie (backup without main role), or there is a mafia neighborizer - presumably loyal, because otherwise i guess someone would have been neighborizer by now.

Why wouldn't you suppose that either a) a roleblocker exists b) a town neighborizer kept silent but isn't doubting your claim?

Both of those seem more logical.

Why would you think it is more logical that a town neighborizer exists, refuses to claim, and has been roleblocked twice - without having any confirmation that there is a roleblocker?

[Farkran]

Or scum could be smarter, and stay one step ahead than you. Have you considered this possibility?

Yes, but I rejected it.

There's a reason I said it's based on experience. When I make an argument that's essentially "I believe X is town because if scum they wouldn't have expected anyone to think they were town for doing what they did" (god that's tortured wording but I think you get what I mean), which is an argument I make frequently, I usually get someone saying "but S_S, what if they knew you would make that argument." And that's never the case. Nobody ever sees this kind of argument coming, at least not confidently enough to risk doing something that could just get them lynched. It just isn't common enough. Once it's common, it will no longer be effective, that's how meta works.

Now does that alone mean it's impossible for him to be scum? No. But if he is scum, he didn't leave me alive to pysch me out; he did it for some other reason, which was probably his partner thinking they could pocket me. But that just doesn't sound likely, especially since I'm very hard to pocket. So Flubber just being town is by far the simplest and most likely answer.

I agree with your first paragraph, except that it does not describe the situation we're in. And it does not explain the reasoning behind your PoE either, it just explains (with a wrong premise) how flubber is town.

[Farkran]

So, either i am a named townie (backup without main role), or there is a mafia neighborizer - presumably loyal, because otherwise i guess someone would have been neighborizer by now.

Why wouldn't you suppose that either a) a roleblocker exists b) a town neighborizer kept silent but isn't doubting your claim?

Both of those seem more logical.

Why would you think it is more logical that a town neighborizer exists, refuses to claim, and has been roleblocked twice - without having any confirmation that there is a roleblocker?

I'm not a fan of that theory myself. It makes more sense that you're just lying but I was looking at it from the PoV with someone of a join date in 2019. Why would town need a backup neighborizer that they inherit from scum when we already have two conftown in the setup?

I doubt you've even seen or heard of a game of cross alignment inheritance so it makes me really sketchy on your claim.

VOTE: Farkran

In fact, it was PP who first brought that option out, and that's my reason to vote flubber over him.

[Farkran]

By the way, i already said i'm not opposed to a farkran lynch - it would still be useful to confirm what it's already a fact to me.

We can afford 3 mislynches before we lose. As long as you do flubber and PP after me, i'm ok dying today.

[Farkran]

By the way, i already said i'm not opposed to a farkran lynch - it would still be useful to confirm what it's already a fact to me.

We can afford 3 mislynches before we lose. As long as you do flubber and PP after me, i'm ok dying today.

Yeah, not touching PP anytime soon barring a very specific flip from you.

I'm fine with that. Flubber needs to go first though. After he flips, you get PP in case of town!flub, and titus in case of scum!flub.

I don't care about anything else for today

[Farkran]

Flubber set aside, what lets bob, egix, menalque, pp and ben INTO your process of elimination, whereas me and Rabid are out of it?

In a nutshell:

Bob has pretty much been a voice of reason for much of the game, even if that voice of reason is so muddled with typos it's sometimes hard to understand Could he be scum? Yeah, but this is a playstyle he'd have no reason to adopt as scum, when he could probably succeed with something more direct, given this game's tepid climate.

Egix has a few moments of sudden opinion reversal that read as very genuine and unplanned to me. Abruptly switching a read is very often a sign of being town since scum are usually concerned with appearing consistent.

Menalque is, uh, solving? And I don't mean just stating opinions, he's actually trying to work with people to understand stuff. Something that I don't really see you (Farkran) doing; you're mostly trying to get people to agree with you. As I said to him earlier, this is definitely how he plays town, though I don't know how well he can replicate it as scum.

PP is my weakest read among these, but for the most part he's been playing very reactively and not with much of an agenda, and he's been most strongly defending people that I thought deserved defending. Also, since I'm dying tonight anyway, I won't lie-- I got some PR vibes from him. Obviously don't confirm or deny this.

Ben read is all about optics, and I've explained this before. In what world does ben roll scum and go, "I have a plan. I'm going to act super lost, be real sheepy, refuse to commit to anything, and randomly prematurely claim VT, and they'll surely townread me!"? Not likely.

I actually agree with this, barring the strong read of town!flubber. I also think egix, bob and menalque are unlikely to be scum for the same reasons + VCA.

Ben is a weaker read to me, i wouldn't lynch him today but i probably would in 3p lylo (depending on what happened before)

[Farkran]

I'm fine with that. Flubber needs to go first though. After he flips, you get PP in case of town!flub, and titus in case of scum!flub.

Hey, remember my reasoning for two on? I do.

I don't, it would be nice of you to quote it or post again, whichever is faster to you. It makes no harm to repeat yourself, if it helps the town win

[Farkran]

By the way, i already said i'm not opposed to a farkran lynch - it would still be useful to confirm what it's already a fact to me.

We can afford 3 mislynches before we lose. As long as you do flubber and PP after me, i'm ok dying today.

Yeah, not touching PP anytime soon barring a very specific flip from you.

I'm fine with that. Flubber needs to go first though. After he flips, you get PP in case of town!flub, and titus in case of scum!flub.

I don't care about anything else for today

Um do you realize who you're talking to? Are your posts a comedy routine at this time?

Nah, i scumreaded your pred and you gave me no reason to townread you. Opportunistic logic is bad, but i'll have town take care of that once i flip