Open 65 - Mini Love (Over!) before 578

[kravhen]

I'll just point out I'm not V/L/A... it's just my bday today (right after my scumday lolz), and this week was a national festival, etc. etc. In other words I've been busy and distracted, but I'll get around to drop my analysis soon, perhaps in the weekend.
There's no deadline or anything, so let's not rush anything and try to finish this day.

[eldarad]

Post 725 by Kravhen does look like a case on me, developed as a way of defending himself. Unfortunately for Kravhen, I am confirmed town.
Sethaniel makes a good observation:

That said, I do have to agree that #725 looks oddly like you're making a case against eldarad, whom we know is confirmed town. What is the idea behind that, anyway? Are you trying to discredit eldarad's reasoning?

My problem is Kraven has been so damn scummy. I will go back and find quote in a minute, but the scary thing in all this is I think he may not be the scum. I am serious when I say this.

Sigh. I agree with this too. Personally, I do my best scumhunting when I am under pressure as I respond to attacks. But even so, we're now effectively in the endgame, so it pays to be familiar with all the players' roles before you start attacking people.

I haven't quite got my head around post 749. I don't really see the logic in clearing Kravhen for the purposes of Today's lynch. Possibly this is a massive gambit from Seth, and he's hoping to turn it around Tomorrow once we lynch Coron Today. Possibly he is a townie.

Now I'm up-to-date I will re-read Day 2.

[eldarad]

Day 2

farside - in her original incarnation - is NK'ed.
I have an overwhelming urge to vote Korts, and do so. Korts begins the Seth wagon, as promised. babygirl (now farside) follows.
I make a case on Korts.
[quote="Jex, post 228]More to come later as I don't have much time to post right now but here's my starting thoughts:

Top of my scum list: Sethaniel, dahill, korts - will explain in a bit.

I'd also like to do a read of Flameaxe and Silence. My guess is that at least one of the scum were on the opposing wagon of ABR (Flameaxe and Sethaniel) and then Silence didn't vote which seems odd to me.[/quote]
On that scumlist there are 2 confirmed townies (Korts and dahill). Either Jexscum really did list three townies as her top scum targets or - more likely - she included one real scum in the list. Which means Seth is scum.
Silence reminds us of Seth's very early VT claim.
Seth wheels out the WIFOM defence, which no-one likes.
My case on Korts continues. dahill votes, but in a way I really didn't like (to the extent that I ended up voting for him later on)

I skimmed through most of Day 2. The next interesting bit is:

Anyway,

Pinky Finger of Suspicion

Sethaniel for post 535. Making a point of trying to do the math and then failing, seems to me like a filler post.

...which is very true, actually.

farside, in her second incarnation, is protected Night 2 and the scum kill fails.

Pretty short post considering how much I read, but I'm fairly confident that, of our 3 potential scum, there is real linkage between Jex and Seth. So:

vote Sethaniel

[Sethaniel]

I don't see how that argument links me to jex.

why is it more likely that jex would include a real scum in that list?

how does silence reminding us of my vt claim link me to jex?

how does a wifom defense link me to jex?

how does korts's fos on me link to jex?

[eldarad]

I don't think Jexscum would have listed 3 townies as potential scum. For one thing, it means that she locks herself out of bussing her scumbuddy if it becomes necessary.
Also, given the Jex cannot realistically name her lover (silence) as scum, I think it is almost certain that her list of 3 includes her scumbuddy.
Later, she posts this:

I'll be honest...I made the dahill argument in hopes of getting this type of reaction out of it and am absolutely shocked that he got to L-1 so quickly. Korts, Sethaniel, elderad and ABR were the ones that jumped on the train.

Elderad gave a reason for his vote so doesn't say scum to me all that much at this point.

Korts switched his vote without saying another word. Way sketch since he had been so gung ho for Sethaniel all day.

Sethaniel didn't give reasoning for putting his vote on dahill which is sketch, however he's a little less sketch in my eyes than korts seeing as how he wasn't really advocating for anyone before that. Its still sketch to jump on a bandwagon with no reasoning though.

ABR....how do you really analyze anything ABR does. He's claimed doctor so as of now I have no reason to suspect him since no one has counterclaimed.

Therefore my top scum are Korts and Sethaniel so

unvote vote korts

So, she thinks your jump on the wagon is kinda scummy, but not that scummy. But ABR is doc and can't be attacked, I gave reasons and in any case I've been playing very pro-town all game.
So she points at you, but makes sure she lays into Korts.
Again, I simply do not believe that Jex took a hard look at 4 players she knew to be town and attacked 2 of them, thus completely ignoring her scumbuddy.

how does silence reminding us of my vt claim link me to jex?

how does a wifom defense link me to jex?

how does korts's fos on me link to jex?

Stop being obtuse.

Your very very early VT claim is odd.
Your WIFOM defence is scummy.
Your post "doing the maths" but not actually doing the maths IS a filler post. If the maths don't work, why did you post it? Creating the illusion of contributing content when you are not is scummy.

Therefore, you look scummy + link to Jexscum = you are scum

[Sethaniel]

I couldn't tell you why Jex did what she did, but I'm a vanilla townie.

Go ahead and lynch me and find out, if you think it'll work for the town. I don't think it's a good idea mathematically, but I've been wrong before.

I'm okay with dying today if you get the right one of kravhen/coron tomorrow.

[ThAdmiral]

Vote Count:

Coron - 1

(Farside)

Sethaniel - 1

(Eldarad)

Not Voting -

(Everyone else)

With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch

[eldarad]

Great! Let's lynch Seth then. We have his permission.

[Coron]

vote: Seth

[dahill1]

sorry for not posting much
starkadium and such

vote seth

[Sethaniel]

vote: coron

[kravhen]

I'm really not liking the whole "Lets quicklynch and then actually THINK tomorrow with who's left" vibe going on...

Some people should unvote... i was forced to lurk due to being busy with quebec day AND canada day (yes in the same week) and so I was rarely sober and in the mood for this. I've been promising a Seth re-read and analysis for a while, which I'm thinking of turning into a player-by-player analysis, don't lynch anyone until I do plz.

[ThAdmiral]

Vote Count:

Sethaniel - 3

(Eldarad, Coron, Dahill)

Coron - 2

(Farside, Sethaniel)

Not Voting -

(Kravhen)

With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch

Sethaniel is at -1

[eldarad]

farside, do you oppose a Seth lynch, or just prefer a Coron one?
Any reasons why you favour Coron over Seth as our scum?

[Sethaniel]

[quote=kravhen"]
I'm really not liking the whole "Lets quicklynch and then actually THINK tomorrow with who's left" vibe going on...

Some people should unvote... i was forced to lurk due to being busy with quebec day AND canada day (yes in the same week) and so I was rarely sober and in the mood for this. I've been promising a Seth re-read and analysis for a while, which I'm thinking of turning into a player-by-player analysis, don't lynch anyone until I do plz.
[/quote]

More reason for me to think Kravhen is town.

[farside22]

farside, do you oppose a Seth lynch, or just prefer a Coron one?
Any reasons why you favour Coron over Seth as our scum?

Seth is basically saying Kravhen is town. If Coron flips town then tomorrow Seth has no leg to stand on. I also call this gut feeling as well.

[dahill1]

farside, do you oppose a Seth lynch, or just prefer a Coron one?
Any reasons why you favour Coron over Seth as our scum?

Seth is basically saying Kravhen is town. If Coron flips town then tomorrow Seth has no leg to stand on. I also call this gut feeling as well.

well i see no reason why we couldn't just do the opposite (lynch seth now, then coron if seth flips town)

[farside22]

farside, do you oppose a Seth lynch, or just prefer a Coron one?
Any reasons why you favour Coron over Seth as our scum?

Seth is basically saying Kravhen is town. If Coron flips town then tomorrow Seth has no leg to stand on. I also call this gut feeling as well.

well i see no reason why we couldn't just do the opposite (lynch seth now, then coron if seth flips town)

I don't want to be alone if you guys are wrong.

[Sethaniel]

Okay, town, if I self-hammer to prove my townishness, can we still win if I'm wrong and Coron isn't the scum?

Lets see, if I mislynch myself, the logical NK is dahill/eldarad. That will leave Coron, Kravhen, and farside in lylo.

So unless you all are damn sure that Kravhen is town, I shouldn't self-hammer.

[farside22]

Okay, town, if I self-hammer to prove my townishness, can we still win if I'm wrong and Coron isn't the scum?

Lets see, if I mislynch myself, the logical NK is dahill/eldarad. That will leave Coron, Kravhen, and farside in lylo.

So unless you all are damn sure that Kravhen is town, I shouldn't self-hammer.

This is what I have been waiting for. That moment of contradiction. Thank you I now feel better doing this.

unvote:
vote: Sethaniel

[Sethaniel]

Farside, you're an idiot.

Hopefully you won't be quite so stupid tomorrow.

[kravhen]

Wtf....
Seth honestly that post about self-hammering yourself to "prove townishness" stands out in such a horrible way.
Claim you're scum already and declare us winners...?

((Farside is "confirmed town" btw...))

[ThAdmiral]

Vote Count:

Sethaniel - 4

(Eldarad, Coron, Dahill, Farside)

Coron - 1

(Sethaniel)

Not Voting -

(Kravhen)

With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch

"I think it might be me!" stammered Sethanial.

The town look at each other, unsure how to proceed.
"I did the maths, you see, and I think that if we lynch me now then there's a greater chance of us winning...or something...it's a bit cloudy now." He stroked his jaw as if trying to remember.

The town didn't waste any time waiting to listen to the reasoning though - one solid whack with a hammer and the job was done.

Sethaniel

was dead.

It is now night!

Please send your night choices in. As soon as this is done day 4 will start.

[ThAdmiral]

It is a new day

The town wake up fearing the worst and with good reason. Hanging from a light post near the main center is

Eldarad

. His hands are bound behind his back and his neck is broken from where the rope snapped taut.

The town shake their heads, a few sobs are heard. One town member shakingly steps forward.
"No" he whispers. "Not like this."

He turns around, holding a knife in his hands.
"I can't go on without him!" He yells, plunging the knife into his chest.

As the town watch the pool of blood expand around

Dahill's

corpse, they realize no one even tried to stop him...

It is now day 5!

With 3 alive, it is 2 to lynch

[Coron]

I'd just like to point out that I'm not scum, don't lynch me. More to come at a later time.