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also I'm the guy that tried to save the game in miccros when you fucked up by quickhammering and then we lost because Charles 510 (the guy who I originally mistook you for) threw down a fast vote in lylo while ignoring my claim to have a cop result
Please note the following change/tweak to the setup:
If a no lynch occurs, the jester automatically wins
this was my fault, I wanted to break the setup
this should be proof enough that I have the lowest jester equity out of everyone actually. Unless you think I'm clever and cheeky enough to do something like this as jester (I'm not)
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Post #175 (isolation #16) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:44 am
Postby eth0s »
Bingle is obviously trying to play the team leader role in a strong arming way that a jester wouldn't. The only problem is his logic is fail in multiple areas and he's probably just scum trying to knock off the actual useful townies first
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Post #178 (isolation #18) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:07 pm
Postby eth0s »
A jester wants to get lynched. bingle is attempting to lead town and even throwing around statistics to back himself up. I think that makes him look especially unlynchable and I believe that he strongly wishes not to be lynched even though his methodology seems to be "lynch anyone who isn't jester"
so if he's not jester he should be fine with eating rope if town. Will see how that plays out though.
In post 175, eth0s wrote:trying to knock off the actual useful townies first
Talk to me about this, when you get a chance.
What part of Drew/BS is "The actual useful townies"?
"The actual useful townies" is me taking a stab at your motivation, but I thought the hydra was pretty useful in retrospect. Drew I don't feel very strongly about. I am thinking town or jester, but his jester equity is lower than BS, who has the highest in the game. Coincidentally I think BS has decently high scum equity as well.
I don't think you actually want to lynch BS for the reasons you've stated. But if a scum!drew lynch actually happens I'll eat my words.
I think it's totally within your range to call out the "scum bussing D3 is the play" thing and then lynch a scumbuddy BS on D3. I mean you've already set yourself up to hang him so it least it will show consistency.
The fact that you think I have the highest jester equity is baloney which makes me feel even better about your partnership with BS given the comment you made about him not being jester.
However if I'm right about BS being your scummate then either me or you is wrong about drew being jester so I'm going to check ISOs tomorrow and see if I still feel the same there.
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Post #210 (isolation #24) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 6:28 pm
Postby eth0s »
Okay someone who isnt bingle but has a decent grasp on his meta/playstyle,
Am I paranoid or did he do something in recent posts that suggests he could be like a deep wolf jester? I still dont buy his play this game as being jester indicative but something pinged me the wrong way because I think it supports a viewpoint implied by someone else earlier.
In post 266, eth0s wrote:I still think BS jester equity is too high to lynch today.
He's like... towny... Also think him adhering to his gimmick so passionately is more likely to come from a pure mindset rather than one which is trying to either look like scum or look like someone who isn't tryna look like scum
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Post #274 (isolation #28) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:13 am
Postby eth0s »
VOTE: wooper
Low jester equity and his logic has holes in it in multiple places. If I weren't paranoid about Bingle's jester potential I would still rather be voting there.
BB's jester equity has jumped up a bit for me, but so has his towniness.
BS is still probably jester and lynching him today is stupid
rooroo and ofhrz I am dead null on. The latter needs to be prodded though.
I'm wondering if rooroo's play here is more likely to come from town or scum if not jester? I strongly feel not-jester towards the slot but he's put so much icing on it I am scared to pursue him on the day that I believe the jester is the strongest.
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Post #282 (isolation #31) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:16 am
Postby eth0s »
So "lynch town, but not me because I'm going to win in endgame". If you're 100% sure that you're town then it would make sense to advocate your lynch over BS, because you aren't 100% sure he's not jester?
If he's so pure and town motivated then why wouldn't you rather trust him in endgame and let yourself eat rope to ensure town doesn't lose? This is the big problem I have with your and Bingles' approach. It's bullshit and at least one of you is more concerned with lynching town than not lynching the jester, if not both of you.
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Post #285 (isolation #32) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:24 am
Postby eth0s »
I'd prefer to do real scum hunting. Sure I can exclude lynching someone that I find scummy from if I think they have medium to high jester equity, but you just admitted to lynching TOWN as a preference. That's stupid. Mafia, especially with a jester, is too intricate to assume that anyone acting super towny is automatically not a jester. Like it's all WIFOM. Why pretend that someone that is playing like scum is more likely jester than someone that is playing like town? This just enforces a gamestate where everyone will act scummy to survive...
Letting wooper and bingle both go to endgame seems like a ridiculous idea. If a townie flips today and they're both alive then we have successfully allowed two people to pre-lylo that have played the entire game with an agenda of lynching town. How the fuck is town supposed to win in that gamestate?
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Post #288 (isolation #34) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:30 am
Postby eth0s »
In post 283, Wooper wrote:Because (no offense)
if we're looking at a f6 of
eth0s/bbm/ruru/ofrhz/bungle/bs
I don't really trust my townreads in here to get their reads right. towniness/antisurvivalism is one thing - actually finding scum when the time comes is another.
Then why not just make a comprehensive readlist and offer yourself up as a sacrifice? If you really flip town then I'll sheep the list, and if you flip scum then awesome, I'm right.
I'm pretty sure most of the playerlist will agree that you're not jester, therefore making you one of the safest lynches. People think I am jester for some reason so I can't offer the same or else I would have already thrown a comprehensive list out and self-voted. The fact that you're being scummy really doesn't help your explicit unwillingness to die for the town when you apparently believe that other townies should.
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Post #291 (isolation #35) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:36 am
Postby eth0s »
In post 289, Wooper wrote:There isn't enough content to be 100% sure on the scumteam yet. Having a jester flip changes the landscape of how you read people's motivations in this setup. :/ I can't give a comprehensive readlist with any major degree of accuracy without knowing which slot is jester.
Guessing now I'd say bbm jester, and I'm starting to get paranoid of eth0s/bungle scum.
i mean even a conditional read list like "if x is jester and loses then y is scum"
yada yada
IDK why are you getting paranoid of me for pointing out how scummy your strat is? My problem with you is nearly identical to the problem I had with bingle and iirc you didn't really care about that. Now you're paranoid of me and him being a scumteam? I truly don't understand how that's your conclusion but you should be voting one of us rather than someone you find townie.
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Post #299 (isolation #36) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:53 am
Postby eth0s »
In post 292, Wooper wrote:Bungle mystically townreads you and I and says we need to endgame because we're both absolutely town; you have no issue with this until it gets time for the final lynch before the jester flips and suddenly you want me lynched. That reeks of an agenda.
What, haven't you both townread me all game? If I had an agenda surely I would be fine with going to lylo/pre-lylo with two people that townread me?
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Post #301 (isolation #38) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:55 am
Postby eth0s »
In post 293, Wooper wrote:I'm literally a more obvtown version of Bungle this game. The only reason to lynch me over him is if you think he's the jester (yo) or you're his scumbuddy.
But much much more importantly: we need to lynch someone who is NOT A JESTER and isn't going to win this game in f5.
Ergo: BS.
He could be the jester. You definitely aren't. And you're scummy.
In post 210, eth0s wrote:Okay someone who isnt bingle but has a decent grasp on his meta/playstyle,
Am I paranoid or did he do something in recent posts that suggests he could be like a deep wolf jester? I still dont buy his play this game as being jester indicative but something pinged me the wrong way because I think it supports a viewpoint implied by someone else earlier.
i don't think that's being paranoid at all. don't lynch bungle until the jester is gone.
In post 210, eth0s wrote:Okay someone who isnt bingle but has a decent grasp on his meta/playstyle,
Am I paranoid or did he do something in recent posts that suggests he could be like a deep wolf jester? I still dont buy his play this game as being jester indicative but something pinged me the wrong way because I think it supports a viewpoint implied by someone else earlier.
i don't think that's being paranoid at all. don't lynch bungle until the jester is gone.
i think this speaks for itself
i don't think that kind of distancing is outside the average scumrange.
I'm talking about how you implied that you calling us a scumteam is what made me believe he could be jester.
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Post #315 (isolation #45) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:22 pm
Postby eth0s »
Not jester: ofhrz, wooper, BBMolla, eth0s
Maybe jester: bingle, rooroo
Probably jester: blatant scum
town/scum:
ofhrz
- dead null
wooper
- scumread
BBmolla
- townread
bingle
- scumlean
rooroo
- null/town
blatant scum
- null/scum (if not jester and town then wooper + ??? = scumteam; if not jester and scum then partner is bingle)
blue
is the only potentially acceptable place to lynch today as this is jester's strongest day. Obviously wooper takes precedence for scum/not-jester overlap but I'm willing to vote ofhrz if others want to, since I see absolutely no way a jester just plays a no-posting game. I'm not sure of his lack of activity is AI for his meta but I'm open to anyone's input there. BBmolla is an absolute last resort lynch for me and I'm not even sure if I'll vote it if he goes to L-1
rvs memes but i think these are worth checking at a really preliminary level; this is a gimmick account and he's playing to his shtick of being ~blatant scum~. If he actually *was* jester I'd expect some level of distancing from it, even at an unconscious level.
If his jester approach is drawing scum equity to try and be lynched as jester, not hammering here is a bizarre deviation from the strategy; imo this shows an inconsistent approach to the game which doesn't gel with the idea that BS is a jester.
has anyone even been chastised for hammering a townie this game? I'm pretty sure not. From jester point of view any lynch that isn't on yourself is a bad lynch, therefore I see jester equity in this even if you don't.
In post 121, Blatant Scum wrote:Bingle, so your strategy is to keep lynching every player with low jester equity until day 4?
In post 166, Blatant Scum wrote:Hmmm, so as town I actually should *want* to be lynched?
Interesting approach.
i think this conversation is slippy; if BS is jester and trying to get lynched he hasn't considered that the optimal way to be lynched is to look like you're trying to stay alive. if he's jester he's very likely playing to a more two-dimensional wincon which i don't really think he is because again, his earlier play is pretty inconsistent
in 255 you said "Blatant Scum - survivalism slipped; unlikely to be jester. probably a very small townread in a vacuum." am I misunderstanding your definition of a survivalism slip? If not, what do you really think and why has it changed?
In post 183, Blatant Scum wrote:Bingle's current playstyle is how I would be playing jester.
this is a strong intuition and something that comes from someone trying to solve the game in the moment imo, not push a longterm agenda.
again, jester!BS = any lynch not on himself is bad. Painting other people as jester is an easy way to ensure that person does not get lynched before D4. Therefore he is attempting to leave himself in the lynch pool while removing bingle from it. +jester equity. If you (woop) are really town then explain how this couldn't just as easily be an attempt at scum distancing? Up until this point I'm pretty sure scum!BS was never really worried about getting lynched. If he's scum then wouldn't he feel pretty safe making this post for distance?
In post 217, Bingle wrote:Yeah, reread Drew Iso. I don't see a world where that is jester.
VOTE: Drew
Preferred lynch order remains the same. Drew > BS > legitimate scumhunting.
I am willing to lynch Drew.
If he flips scum, I am willing to lynch myself.
But if he flips town, I am not lynching myself.
this is a townpost from someone who doesn't know the setup well, or a scumpost from someone who is very good at this setup. it's not a jesterpost.
Can you explain your thought process here? There's too much WIFOM that can come from his post for me to feel nearly as confident about it as you do.
In post 254, Blatant Scum wrote:I mean, you didn't hit scum first 2 days.
If you lynch me today, town has 1/5 probability of victory (in case of random lynching).
Thanks to Bingle's interventions, wagonology probably won't work for first three days here. Mislynches neither.
We should lynch scummy person, even though if his/her jester equity is existing (but still low-medium).
allowing that you can clearly track that BS has been working thru how to play this setup well? this is a very towny post.
In post 346, BBmolla wrote:Wish ya'll didn't think I'm the jester, I'd be best lynch today.
why
I think I've been the most unproductive and difficult to read of the townies.
BBmolla wrote:as evidenced by everyone being absolutely convinced that I am the jester
I don't think you're the jester. But I do think scum is the best lynch today. I'm assuming you simply used a poor choice of words if you agree with the last sentence. Otherwise.. ???
In post 346, BBmolla wrote:Wish ya'll didn't think I'm the jester, I'd be best lynch today.
why
I think I've been the most unproductive and difficult to read of the townies.
BBmolla wrote:as evidenced by everyone being absolutely convinced that I am the jester
I don't think you're the jester. But I do think scum is the best lynch today. I'm assuming you simply used a poor choice of words if you agree with the last sentence. Otherwise.. ???
every person who I think is mafia could also be jester.
Well I think you're wrong to change your read on wooper. What do you think of his jester equity?
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Post #365 (isolation #52) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:15 pm
Postby eth0s »
In post 363, Wooper wrote:the only person i have as a fringe scumread who probably isn't a jester is eth0s, who is mostly scum through associatives with bungle, who i think is scum or jester. :c
I literally don't understand how I could be scummates with bingle
In post 475, BBmolla wrote:I’m not Jester, I think y’all are dumb as shit if this is what you honestly think my jester play looks like
I get the funnest role in the game and then play under the radar with weak reads?
You fucking serious?
You don't think this is an optimal jester strategy? I don't think a jester would want to play super scummy because then it'd be obvious that they're jester but would want to be scummy 'enough' where other players would consider lynching them and an under-the-radar type of gameplay would work well for that.
aaronfrost managed to word my own thoughts more elegantly than I could, and I actually see more jester equity in BB now than I have all game.