Open 769: Venrob's PYP X/Y (Town Wins)

[Kerset]

How can JK hurt us at this point? I am immune to rb and Aaron is basically deadman.

[Luca Blight]

Deeper into the game it possibly could due to no-kill wifom.

If we lynch Skitter and she flips green, what’s the plan? Surely it’s better to have the info from th result regardless

And Fetchd has higher scum equity. He was the one trying actively to get Xayah lynched over Billy D1.

And his block on Skitter was very anti-Town because the info could have proven valuable: if she had a result on Fetchd we could have then lynched Skitter today to confirm Fetchd’s alignment tomorrow, or vice-versa. Skitter as scum was never likely to do the kill, so it seems an entirely scum-motivated maneuver by Fetchd. He could have chosen to block someone like Suji who is a claimed VT, also a dubious slot and more likely to perform the kill as scum.

[Luca Blight]

And look at this progression:

I feel like despite skit being 'wrong'. I don't see a reason for her to lie here. Keen for why there's no result seeing as SS isn't commuter. That bit is weird bc I didn't target skit.

He went from this, to suddenly hard-SR’ing Skitter for the same thing.

He saw Flubs - Skitter as an easy path to LYLO, most likely.

[Wooper]

How can JK hurt us at this point? I am immune to rb and Aaron is basically deadman.

There's no gs false guilties left I don't think..? so we have two living ungated alignment cops. A roleblocker is a big negative esp. when it just roleblcoked one of our nearly-ungated alignment cops.

[Luca Blight]

I feel like despite skit being 'wrong'. I don't see a reason for her to lie here. Keen for why there's no result seeing as SS isn't commuter. That bit is weird bc I didn't target skit.

Ok yeah skit is probs scum here.

But you know who is even equally scummy? flub. We Lynch one, then the other and we win the game.

Game is over and we win, move it.

This progression, to now saying he blocked Skitter as she is ‘confscum’, is terrible.

[Kerset]

This one is more accurate:

I feel like despite skit being 'wrong'. I don't see a reason for her to lie here. Keen for why there's no result seeing as SS isn't commuter. That bit is weird bc I didn't target skit.

Spoiler:

These two explanations are not compatible.

i was referring to why i put him as ~nullscum there in particular

holistically i felt like the fact i dropped the read would make it obviosu in hindsight

'

There in particular

' was D2, after your result, and the very point I'd look back to see any 'crumb' you might have left behind.

You may have not pushed Frost as much, but it is in no way obvious, looking back, that you had that result on him.

I realise 'no gun' isn't a hard inno, but considering the only way he could be scum in such a scenario is if he picked Doctor (and roleblocker is a better scum role imo) you should have at least accepted my Frost Town-lean rather than going out of your way to disagree with it. It doesn't make sense.

i disagree, but ok
again, there i was referring to his play which i was decidedly not townreading

It's irrelevant how you're reading his play when you'd just received a 'no gun' result which almost clears him, and you'd want people to know your result in case you're NK.

There's something disingenuous about all of this.

ok w/e nobody noticed

xayah wasn't the scum kill, i'm n2 vig

i thought that aaron was n2 vig

Skitter....explain this as well, please.

Also, rb was a really poor choice to investigate N1, imo.

Well, obviously in retrospect.

But I didn't think so at the time? He wasn't townread barely at all.

Well I definitely TR him, and I'm pretty sure a few others did too. He was one of the few really active players on D1 who were trying to make things happen. He was also second in the draft and always likely to be killed early on.

Players like PM, Kerset, Nom, Frost existed...Even the likes of Fetchd, Wooper etc would have been a better choice.

rb is literally the last player I would have chosen to investigate on N1.

The issue with UB is that scum are forced in to taking the useless cop bc it's a scum claim otherwise bc role cop is a trash role in this setup when you have a draft order and can generally guess who has what.

i'm not sure scum should be picking in that bracket at all tbh

i'm not sure i'm liking this claim from aaron

or, more accratley, i think he probably is the universal backup slot/pair/bracket but i'm not convinced he's a town one

This makes...no sense.

Ok yeah skit is probs scum here.

But you know who is even equally scummy? flub. We Lynch one, then the other and we win the game.

Game is over and we win, move it.

[Luca Blight]

That was my progression, not his.

One moment he’s like ‘Why would Skitter lie about that’, next he’s like ‘Ok she’s probably scum’, and now it’s ‘she’s confscum’, all based on the same thing.

Why does the question ‘why would Skitter lie’ no longer exist in Fetchd’s head?

[Luca Blight]

Because it’s actually a fair question, one I’ve been trying to figure out myself.

[Kerset]

Because in between S_S claimed and revealed that he did indeed commute.
"SS isn't commuter" -> SS actually commuted
skitter didn't lie about no result
luca and adorable point out solid holes in skitter claim
"Ok yeah" ^ they are right
"skit is

probs

scum here"

I have 0 idea why do you have problem here.

[Luca Blight]

I was thinking the ‘lie’ in question was the general ‘not understanding the Frost situation’. I’ll have a look back over it tomorrow when I’m on a computer.

I still want to lynch Fetchd today regardless.

[AaronFrost]

You didn't call JK scum pick yesterday and as far as I recall JK was statistically picked by town.
I can totally see the idea behind jailing skitter, he was SR and didn't expect to be jailed.
VOTE: skitter

I disagree. I think skitter, if she's scum, thinks that she's going to be roleblocked and doesn't perform the kill. I also think that Fetchd realizes that skitter is being scumread enough to infer that she won't be the one killing that night so he's better off going for whoever he believes skitt's partner is. That's what I'd have done as the jk in this situation.

[AaronFrost]

And look at this progression:

I feel like despite skit being 'wrong'. I don't see a reason for her to lie here. Keen for why there's no result seeing as SS isn't commuter. That bit is weird bc I didn't target skit.

He went from this, to suddenly hard-SR’ing Skitter for the same thing.

He saw Flubs - Skitter as an easy path to LYLO, most likely.

Huh I didn't even notice the weird progression. Think that's a +1 to my Fetchd/skitt scum team theory.

[skitter30]

We established at the end of the previous day that Town!Flubs meant Skitter was more likely town. Fetchd then blocks the best PR left which is just anti-Town in general, because even if we were to lynch Skitter today that info could have proven valuable.

VOTE: Fetchd

Why wouldn't Fetchd block me then? My power is arguably more useful than skitt's.

Why exactly does Flubb flipping town make skitter more likely to be town again?

because i knew that ss had commuted that night

[skitter30]

Why'd you check kerset ?

They were a null/question mark slot.

i'd have checked me

[skitter30]

Am I the only one seeing Fetchd/skitter team right now? Like Fetchd blocking skitter is a bad move regardless of their alignment. UNLESS they're scum together and they're attempting to bus each other. Like I think Fetchd is smart enough to know that skitter's not going to be doing the kill after yesterday and that he's better off going for one of the VT claims.

And why exactly did skitter check Fetchd? There were better slots to check in my opinion.

The fact that they targeted each other does not feel like a coincidence to me.

yep, this is why he's scummy

i checked him because i felt yesterday like he was trying to set me up for a mislynch today, esp. in light of the flub greenflip.
i don't understand his read on me or how he came to the conclusion that i'm lock/mechanically scum yesterday

[skitter30]

Yes, I made that point already.

Regardless of his read on you, jailing the gunsmith claim in this setup is a terrible play and scum-motivated imo.

Not if she is confirmed scum, which she is.

My other option was the jk ss or Aaron to try and block the kill but to block an investigative with lower scum chance than skit is a worse idea when there's only a 50% chance of protecting the right one.

again i don't understand why you think i'm confirmed scum; your read on me is stronger than it makes any sense to be

[AaronFrost]

Fetchd's move makes no sense as either alignment. If he's town and skitter is scum, then he should know that skitter won't be the one killing and that he should roleblock one of the VT claims. If he's scum, and skitter is town then blocking a claimed PR is an instant scumclaim. If they're scum together then the move makes more sense if they are going for the bus. If they're both town then what even is life.

PEDIT: You were my second option

[skitter30]

what am I missing fypov?

i'm not sure, but i'm not sure why you're not seeing town!me here; i think i'm p far out of my scumrange

[skitter30]

i mean i kinda wished you checked me

[skitter30]

We lynch Fetchd today, there are then no more roleblockers in the game.

Skitter investigates Suji, Frost investigates Adorbs or Wooper.

Frost is most likely killed, but Skitter will have a result. If Fetchd flips green (unlikely) then we lynch Skitter to confirm the result.

Between Skitter/Fetchd there is surely at least one scum. By the time they're both dead the game is basically solved by PoE.

i endorse this product and/or service

[skitter30]

I'd like to hear from Fetchd why exactly he targeted skitter first.

Same with skitt, I'd like to hear why she targeted Fetchd.

because of his read on me yesterday

[skitter30]

You didn't call JK scum pick yesterday and as far as I recall JK was statistically picked by town.
I can totally see the idea behind jailing skitter, he was SR and didn't expect to be jailed.
VOTE: skitter

no

[AaronFrost]

Billy Pilgrim (8):

Xayah

,

Luca Blight (most likely town)

,

skitter30 (possibly scum)

,

Wooper(most likely town)

,

Kerset

,

rb

,

AaronFrost

,

Sujimichi (possibly scum)

Xayah (2):

Sirfetchd (most likely scum)

,

Billy Pilgrim

Kerset (2):

Flubbernugget

,

nomnomnom

rb (1):

PMysterious/Adorable (???)

Not Voting (1):

Something_Smart

Billy Pilgrim is today's putative lynch. If Governor and/or Vengeful exist, they should submit their actions now.

Twilight ends in:

(expired on 2019-11-03 19:38:00)

Looking at some VCA on Day 1 and there's a few things of note here.

skitt was the first person to vote for Billy on D1. She hopped onto me at some point but then switched to Billy shortly after. This lends some credence to skitt being town here as I don't think skitt would bus her partner when he wasn't in danger of being lynched at the time. If skitt was towards the end of the wagon, I'd be more concerned about this.

Fetchd did not vote for Billy at any point during D1. He saw an opportunity to hop on me pretty early on then when I started the Xayah wagon, he hopped on there and parked his vote there for the rest of the day.

Sujimichi was inactive for most of the day but came in to quickhammer Billy after being prodded by the mod. Suji continues to fly under-the-radar.

[AaronFrost]

So yeah I think the evidence is pretty damning against Sirfetchd.

VOTE: Sirfetchd

This is L-1

[Adorable]

I still don't trust Skitter. Sirfetchd gets lynched, Skitter invests Suji and either Suji gets cleared as town or comes up as guilty and if they get cleared as town then that just leaves the last remaining scum to be Skitter and I can see this as a good attempt to frame me and get me mislynched next day phase. Whoever is the third scum is either Suji or Skitter.