Open 769: Venrob's PYP X/Y (Town Wins)

[Kerset]

Because i am a paranoid person. If you look at his progression through this whole game, he is extremely correct about everything. He likes to wave between two subjects but in overall D2 was the only place, where he didn't knew the correct choice.

[Adorable]

I would rather go for a no lynch. Im not confident wooper will flip scum and if this is a mislynch, then that would mean skitter is scum and I will most likely get mislynched next day and mafia will win. Skitters whole approach in this game reminds me of my scum playstyle and I have been scum reading her. I prefer we no lynch today, skitter invests me tonight and when she clears me it would be skitter versus wooper next day.

[Kerset]

Assuming that we lynch wooper and scum kills confirmed townie or skitter

---

No lynch skitter dies {

Kerset

,

Suji,

Wooper, Luca, Adorable} >fail> {

Kerset

, Luca, Adorable}
skitter survives {

Kerset

, Skitter, Wooper, Luca,

Adorable

} >fail> {

Kerset

, Skitter, Luca}

---

Lynch Wooper skitter dies {

Kerset

,

Suji,

Luca, Adorable}
skitter survives {

Kerset

, Skitter, Luca,

Adorable

}

---

Lynch Skitter Suji dies {

Kerset

, Wooper, Luca, Adorable}

---

[Kerset]

In 4th option there is also possibility of skitter scum confirming Adorable but it just confirms luca.

[Kerset]

Adorable could you give me your towncase about Luca. You seems to be quite confident there.

[Adorable]

Adorable could you give me your towncase about Luca. You seems to be quite confident there.

Luca has been wanting to Lynch Billy, last day phase Luca wanted to Lynch sirfetchd instead of skitter and if he was scum he would have went for skitter last day phase and mafia are supposed to work as a team lynching town. Only time scum bus each other is when one of them gets hard scum read by a towny and the other scum will buddy with the towny and bus for the town cred. Scum will also vote each other in the first day phase sometimes.

[Wooper]

for posterity I also think skitter has towntold.
no lynch plan is v good

skitter check me tonight imo, creates a dichotomy of either (guilty) {me, skitter}, (inno) {adorbs, skitter}

[Wooper]

being in 5p that also means we can lynch the whole dichotomy

if Luca is the only deepwolf prospect I'm a happy duck

[Wooper]

actually treating skitter as town she could check me tonight, check adorbs tomorrow night, which either draws the NK onto town!skitter clearing most potential dichotomies or gives us a final dichotomy of {skitter,luca} which are like both very readable

[Wooper]

for posterity I also think skitter has towntold.
no lynch plan is v good

skitter check me tonight imo, creates a dichotomy of either (guilty) {me, skitter}, (inno) {adorbs, skitter}

I fucked up
skitter check adorbs, then luca

[Kerset]

Do you think adorable is most likely to be scum?

[Wooper]

More likely than Luca :U

[Kerset]

Why do you think that fetch would jail you n1? Or maybe he lied about this? Is it a thing that you are passive during D1 when you are PR? He could block xaya or me, we were shaded and higher then you.

[skitter30]

About to go out but will quickly summarize.

We no-lynch, Skitter investigates Adorable, then we’re left with 5 alive the game is basically solved. Either Skitter tells the truth and we lynch in Adorable/Wooper, if she lies then we lynch her in LYLO. If Skitter is NK then that’s fine as it saves lynching her.

interesting plan

i need to go through all the different permutations and figure out what would be optimal but i think this is a pretty decent idea ^

[skitter30]

Do you really think that town!skitter would just survive up to tomorrow? Sounds like 1% chance.

The point is, we don’t know she is Town. If she eats the NK then it’s better than having to lynch her.

If we ML then Skitter could be kept alive for WIFOM reasons, as we’re then in a MYLO situation.

Right now my *gut feeling* is that Wooper is the final scum.

given the ~ruckus~ about me this game i'm honestly not sure i get nk'd here; i think last scum needs me alive to push me as a mislynch

[skitter30]

Because i am a paranoid person. If you look at his progression through this whole game, he is extremely correct about everything. He likes to wave between two subjects but in overall D2 was the only place, where he didn't knew the correct choice.

is this talking about wooper or luca?

[skitter30]

for posterity I also think skitter has towntold.
no lynch plan is v good

skitter check me tonight imo, creates a dichotomy of either (guilty) {me, skitter}, (inno) {adorbs, skitter}

no i can't check you, i'd get a guilty no matter your alignment
you're not clearable anymore

[skitter30]

ok i need to go through the different permutations of how to play out the rest of the game

givens: 1. kerset and suji are cleared 2. wooper is not clearable

i'm trying to write this from an objective poe, not just mine

-> no lynch today. tonight i check one of {luca/adorable}, probably on adorable since i tr luca more
-- > if i die than tomorrow it's {luca, adorable, suji, kerset, wooper}. not quite on auto but suji and kerset will both be alive and have two shots to find the one scum in {luca, adorable, wooper}
-- > if i live, one of suji/kerset will die presumably.
--- > if i get an inno on adorable than it's just {suji/kerset, adorable, me, wooper, luca}, and we have two days to find scum in {me, wooper, luca}.
--- > if i get a guilty on adorable than it's just gg

-> lynch someone today, using wooper as an concrete example just to make it easeir for me to follow this
-- > if he's scum gg
-- > if he's inno, then someone dies overnight
--- > me, then it's {kerset, suji, luca, adorable}, with kerset and suji deciding between luca and adorable, with two innos and a dichotomy in {luca/adorable}
--- > if it's not me, then i get another result, on one of adorable/luca, probably on adorable since i tr them less, and then are {suji/kerset, luca, adorable, me}, with two innos and a dichotomy in {me/luca}

if i did this right i think if we lynch someone today we force a dichotomy with two innos tomorrow

and if we no lynch we have two days to find one scum in three people

i think it's impossible to get the game fully on auto tho

i think a lot of this depends on which mylo/lylo the clears want to have given that they're ultimately the ones that will have to make the choice

[skitter30]

ok i need to go through the different permutations of how to play out the rest of the game

givens: 1. kerset and suji are cleared 2. wooper is not clearable

i'm trying to write this from an objective poe, not just mine

-> no lynch today. tonight i check one of {luca/adorable}, probably on adorable since i tr luca more
-- > if i die than tomorrow it's {luca, adorable, suji, kerset, wooper}. not quite on auto but suji and kerset will both be alive and have two shots to find the one scum in {luca, adorable, wooper}
-- > if i live, one of suji/kerset will die presumably.
--- > if i get an inno on adorable than it's just {suji/kerset, adorable, me, wooper, luca}, and we have two days to find scum in {me, wooper, luca}.
--- > if i get a guilty on adorable than it's just gg

-> lynch someone today, using wooper as an concrete example just to make it easeir for me to follow this
-- > if he's scum gg
-- > if he's inno, then someone dies overnight
--- > me, then it's {kerset, suji, luca, adorable}, with kerset and suji deciding between luca and adorable, with two innos and a dichotomy in {luca/adorable}
--- > if it's not me, then i get another result, on one of adorable/luca, probably on adorable since i tr them less, and then are {suji/kerset, luca, adorable, me}, with two innos and a dichotomy in {me/luca}

if i did this right i think if we lynch someone today we force a dichotomy with two innos tomorrow

and if we no lynch we have two days to find one scum in three people

i think it's impossible to get the game fully on auto tho

i think a lot of this depends on which mylo/lylo the clears want to have given that they're ultimately the ones that will have to make the choice

[skitter30]

fuck sorry for the double post

[skitter30]

of the three i think it's most likely adorable > wooper > luca rn

[Kerset]

Because i am a paranoid person. If you look at his progression through this whole game, he is extremely correct about everything. He likes to wave between two subjects but in overall D2 was the only place, where he didn't knew the correct choice.

is this talking about wooper or luca?

luca

[Kerset]

Hey skitter did you write 2742, before or after reading 2727?

[skitter30]

after; i sometimes need to think through all the possibilities by writing it out myself

[skitter30]

Because i am a paranoid person. If you look at his progression through this whole game, he is extremely correct about everything. He likes to wave between two subjects but in overall D2 was the only place, where he didn't knew the correct choice.

is this talking about wooper or luca?

luca

hey luca how do you feel about bussing?