Guns & Roses III [Game over]

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: Something Smart

Space dementia in your eyes and
Peace will arise
And tear us apart
And make us meaningless again

[AaronFrost]

There are 9 Town Roses remaining.

sons i am disappoint

Hi VOTE: Aaron Fucking Frost

omg hi

[AaronFrost]

Wow I wasn’t expecting to have already been betrayed twice 14 fucking posts into the game

You've taught me to lie without a trace
And to kill with no remorse
On the outside I'm the greatest guy...
Now I'm DEAD INSIDE.

Hi Aaron

Race,
Life’s a race
That I am gonna win
Yes, I am gonna win
And I’ll light the fuse
And I’ll never lose
And I choose to survive
Whatever it takes
You won’t pull ahead
I’ll keep up the pace
And I’ll reveal my strength
To the whole human race
Yes I am prepared
To stay alive
And I won’t forgive,
Vengeance is mine
And I won’t give in
Because I choose to thrive
Yeah, I’m gonna win!

[AaronFrost]

You should've used random.org to choose between gun and rose, not try to do the opposite of what was done the previous game

How do you know I didn't?

[AaronFrost]

Claiming rose is not nearly as spicy when there are nine roses as it was when there was one...

It really isn’t, but I was just explaining why I chose what I did.

Specifically so I could say N3 Rose.

If you think that’s what I am, so be it.

Based on the scum game I just played with you, I know scum you likes to spew a lot of bullshit

[AaronFrost]

I don’t even think I get it.

Proof that even Flavor himself doesn't know what he's talking about half the time

[AaronFrost]

I have a feeling AF is scum and I have no way to explain it at this time, just the feeling i get reading his posts.

Up until this post all I had done was say hi to Datisi and quote Muse songs so I'm curious to hear more about this.

[AaronFrost]

I thought it was presented in a joking manner (and Salamence has since said it was RVS/joke) but personally I viewed it as something that's worth a non-RVS vote and I was kinda hoping Salamence felt the same. I think if you genuinely forgot when posting that there were 3 scum then that's a townslip and Datisi pointing it out yet without any thought to your alignment feels like something scum might do.

I mean town can easily look at the OP and see how many scum there are.

I also find it weird that you read Salamence's vote as joking yet read the banter between Menal/Datisi as serious.

[AaronFrost]

Datisi is always scum tho, apart from when she’s obvtown

Or she acts obvtown so that she can deepwolf but ends up being scum in the end.

*

cue flashbacks to Newbie 1949

*

[AaronFrost]

I didn't read the banter as serious - what makes you say that I did? You can be joking and still mess up how many scum there are. If anything part of the reason I was pinged by Datisi is

because

she wasn't more serious.

You said that it was worth a serious vote which implied that you read it as serious.

[AaronFrost]

I feel like it was a townslip from menal, but datisi is known for

knowing

stuff.

How exactly is that a townslip from Menal?

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: AaronFrost

Can we wagon someone?

VOTE: Samelance

Salimance and alidya are both scum

Now need a third

VOTE: AaronFrost

Creature, what was this? Did you have a legit scumread on AF (which I don't see how) or were you just trying to get a wagon going?

I had a somewhat legit scumread on AF and probably still have

This entire sequence of posts is gross and inconsistent.

If you're scumreading me right now then why didn't you mention me in 176? What's your reason for scumreading me?

[AaronFrost]

I have a feeling AF is scum and I have no way to explain it at this time, just the feeling i get reading his posts.

Up until this post all I had done was say hi to Datisi and quote

Muse

songs so I'm curious to hear more about this.

Scumposting. I get it now.

Ah thank you that clears things up.

[AaronFrost]

I don’t think dats’ thing about there being 3 scum was AI any more than I think me listing 2 scum is AI for me

Exactly my thoughts. I really don't like Icon's attempt to give you towncred based off of that.

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: Iconeum

Even if Icon is considered 'mislynchable' I'm still going to push actions I find scummy and right now I'm not a fan of it giving Mena towncred for something he shouldn't get towncred for.

[AaronFrost]

Like you just called a whole series of creatures posts “gross and inconsistent” then voted a player who is often mislynched as town

Why is icon giving me towncred there worse than what you object to about creature’s posts?

I only have one vote. I don't necessarily think either one is scummier than the other, but those are the two players that stuck out as scummy to me so I picked one.

[AaronFrost]

Even if Icon is considered 'mislynchable' I'm still going to push actions I find scummy and right now I'm not a fan of it giving Mena towncred for something he shouldn't get towncred for.

what's your read on Menalque then?

Townlean, but not because of the 'slip.' I think his posts show a general townie mindset. 200 and 204 especially felt very townie to me.

[AaronFrost]

I'm townreading Sala, Menalque, Dogwatch, Creature, S_S, Ico. I don't think the Ico wagon is very good and would like to make another attempt to kickstart the AF one

Explain Salamence, Dogwatch and Creature for me.

[AaronFrost]

the case is he's making scummy posts, especially with how he reacted to and exaggerated Creature's posts around him and the way he's shading Ico for townreading Menalque

That's... not at all my problem with Icon. My issue is the reason he's townreading Menalque, because of a 'townslip' that isn't actually a townslip.

I'm confused how you don't see the inconsistency in Creature's posts. Knowing how Creature plays, I assumed the naked vote on me was serious, but then in 176 he says both Salamence and alimdia are scum and 'now I need a third' implying he doesn't know who the third is. Then he later confirms the vote was serious.

Like okay there's your third then. Why did you omit that?

[AaronFrost]

He calls out creature for something and then commits the exact same offense very quickly by voting Iconeum, who is, IMO, lower hanging fruit than Creature.

Except I didn't? I made it pretty clear that I was scumreading both Creature and Icon.

[AaronFrost]

In other words, I can very easily see AF’s posting as scum motivated; attempt to capitalize on obvious town mistakes, but place vote on most likely mislynch. Obviously that’s untrue if Ico ends up flipping scum. I’m null on him currently.

But is it a townie mistake? Is it going to be a mislynch? I don't know, which I why I poked at it, and hopefully their responses will tell me more. I'm concerned that you're so quick to write if off as a town mistake because you say that like you know his alignment.

[AaronFrost]

I personally haven’t found him scummy or see him as forced, but I did just play a scum game with him where people said something similar, and then I bailed him out of it, as his scum partner.

In that game I did make a pretty stupid mistake of voting the town watcher immediately after he claimed. I haven't done anything too stupid yet this game but give it time and it'll probably happen

[AaronFrost]

Aarons relationship with Creature will tell me more about his progression on creature.

Not entirely sure what you mean by my relationship with Creature. Like are you talking about in the context of this game or do you want to know my past experience playing with him?

[AaronFrost]

As for AF, he might be scum, might not. I’m not familiar with him enough to sort playstyle from alignment indicative actions right away. So I’ll pressure him as I please, thank you.

Can you elaborate more on how my posts feel forced then? Talk about my progression on Creature as well. How are you reading him atm?

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: Iconeum

Even if Icon is considered 'mislynchable' I'm still going to push actions I find scummy and right now I'm not a fan of it giving Mena towncred for something he shouldn't get towncred for.

I think it was a pretty Obvious townslip. We can discuss how likely it is that he faked this as scum, but it's definitely there.

It's not so much that I think he faked it as scum, just that the statement itself was NAI.

Like it was clearly phrased as a joke given the context and I think Mena's smart enough to look at the setup regardless of his alignment. So I consider it NAI.

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: AaronFrost

His posts read very forced. His progression on creature also sucks.

This post is very forced. This progression on AF also sucks.

This made me chuckle.

But also I agree. Like the whole 'his posts are forced' comment feels like a blanket statement she's using to hop on my wagon. I want her to elaborate on what that means.

[AaronFrost]

Consider me on board.

VOTE: Amrun

I liked Icon's response to my vote. Reminds me of something similar it did in that Newbie game I played with it a while ago.

Still want Creature to explain his progression.

[AaronFrost]

I have read your ISO and right now this is your case against me.

VOTE: AaronFrost

His posts read very forced. His progression on creature also sucks.

He calls out creature for something and then commits the exact same offense very quickly by voting Iconeum, who is, IMO, lower hanging fruit than Creature.

I do, I just think scum would be more worried about how they appear and that Creature will sort himself as the game goes on. In other words, Creature seems like he doesn’t gaf and was posting whatever popped into his mind and probably forgot about AF in that moment.

AF, on the other hand, seems to me like he cares how he comes off - a lot.

In other words, I can very easily see AF’s posting as scum motivated; attempt to capitalize on obvious town mistakes, but place vote on most likely mislynch. Obviously that’s untrue if Ico ends up flipping scum. I’m null on him currently.

Your progression here is bad as well. You don't actually elaborate on what feels forced about them.

Fair point about the Icon vote, but I did get some useful reactions out of it so I'm pretty happy with that. 281 and 284 read like you know that both Icon and Creature are town, and I don't see how the vote translates to me caring how I come off when I've been attempting to sort other players.

[AaronFrost]

Aarons relationship with Creature will tell me more about his progression on creature.

Not entirely sure what you mean by my relationship with Creature. Like are you talking about in the context of this game or do you want to know my past experience playing with him?

Past expierence Obviously.

One game with him in the newbie queue.

[AaronFrost]

@AaronFrost:

Was your vote on Iconeum an attempt to reaction fish?

Yes

[AaronFrost]

@AaronFrost:

Was your vote on Iconeum an attempt to reaction fish?

Yes

Who were you hoping to get a reaction from?

The main goal was to see how Icon would respond.

[AaronFrost]

Pretty townie response fmpov. Not panicking, but reiterating and explaining his position.

[AaronFrost]

Pretty townie response fmpov. Not panicking, but reiterating and explaining his position.

*its position. Sorry.

[AaronFrost]

AF: what did you think of creature now?

Well considering he hasn't answered me or elaborated on his reads, nothing's changed there.

[AaronFrost]

And to compound that, I don't focus on finding scum in the early days; I focus on finding town. Who I end up voting on D1 is usually someone outside of my townreads who is being wagoned. Though this obviously varies from game to game.

God youre so fucking boring. "Look at me being all safe and cautious with my vote" UGH. Wheres the excitement. The Action? THE DRAMA.

Id put a bullet in you right now not because youre scum, because shit like the above is one day going to fuck me over when you do flip scum, whether it be this game or another.

I hate you so much. UGHGHGHSG

Yikes... not sure how to feel about this reaction.

[AaronFrost]

Don't really like alim's push on SS. Feels like its based off of a playstyle clash and not on reasons why he thinks SS is actually scummy.

[AaronFrost]

I don't think it makes him scum either, but the push is still bad. Like he lists your actions that he thinks are scummy, but doesn't elaborate on why those actions are scummy.

[AaronFrost]

Also AF and DDL should tell the class why my exaggerated complaints about SS are AI

They aren't AI, but just like I said about alim's push on SS, I think it's a playstyle clash. The outburst just seemed unwarranted to me.

[AaronFrost]

I'm me

Whaaaaaaat

And I feel like your tone is being unnecessarily aggressive with me? I don't think I'm pushing you/threatening you that hard, I wasn't asking you to /change/ your behaviour, I wasn't saying you need to explain ALL your thought processes?

Do you think that aggressive behavior is more likely to come from scum? I honestly don't see Amrun's posting as super aggressive and have actually been liking her posting a little more on this page.

[AaronFrost]

so I'm just kinda skimming along to get a sense of major events before I do any deep-diving but this post really stands out as disconnected from the flow of the game, AF/Amrun is the hot topic and almidia just drops this outta nowhere?

No comment on Salamence's problems with SS?

[AaronFrost]

AF - do you still want me to explain my townreads from half the game ago? I can do that but frankly I don't really want to unless this will genuinely help you sort me

I only asked because most of your townreads in that post I either didn't have a read on or were slightly scumreading so I was trying to figure out what you saw that was towny in them. You can explain if you want but it's not necessary.

[AaronFrost]

You don’t get to have these 10 scum victories in a calendar year without getting burnt out. I flex it because I set out at like 5 scum victories saying I wanted to hit 10 this year, and I did this goal. I think more players should create goals for themselves.

Large Normal 223: New Beginnings 21p Large Normal

Hey that was a fun game

But seriously you're gonna use every opportunity you can to bring this up aren't you

[AaronFrost]

I think texcat is town
So is GuiltyLiar and Saladance

Why is texcat town?

[AaronFrost]

It's prob Aaron + Amrun + someone fucking around

You really think me and Amrun are a team?

[AaronFrost]

GuiltyLion's hop on the Amrun wagon is super sketch. tex kind of already pointed out the problem with the hop on and it mirrors my thoughts pretty well.

Feeling less confident in scum!Amrun than I was a few pages ago.

I still have no reads on Dogwatch or DDL.

[AaronFrost]

UNVOTE:

Don't really want to do Amrun anymore. I think this is a better vote for today.

VOTE: Guilty Lion

His hop on the Amrun wagon was gross and I agree lack of a counterwagon is unsettling.

[AaronFrost]

amrun [7] - Menalque, Datisi, Iconeum, AaronFrost,

{Dogwatch, GuiltyLion, Creature}

<-- Pretty sure at least one of these three are scum. Possibly more than one.

PEDIT: I think his hop on the Amrun wagon was the worst

[AaronFrost]

I'm updating my townreads to include AF and Datisi.

Amrun is a spicy wagon that I think has p good odds of scum and I'm gonna join it, but right now I feel I got a stronger read on alimdia

. I think the S_S tunnel is a distraction and disingenuous, and has given alimdia cover not to comment on anything else actually relevant going on.

VOTE: Amrun

Why exactly did he join the wagon anyways? He makes it clear that his read on alimdia is much stronger but then joins the wagon after saying scum is on it because... why? How is he reading Amrun? He never says.

Earlier he also stated he townreads Icon, Mena, Dogwatch and Creature. Then before he hops on he includes me and Datisi in his townreads. That's literally the entire wagon right there.

[AaronFrost]

If he's townreading everyone on the wagon, then how is there good odds of scum on it from his point of view?

PEDIT: Really seems like he cares how he looks in that post. Like I feel like as town no matter what you should go for your strongest scumreads.

[AaronFrost]

I'm updating my townreads to include AF and Datisi.

Amrun is a spicy wagon that I think has p good odds of scum and I'm gonna join it, but right now I feel I got a stronger read on alimdia

. I think the S_S tunnel is a distraction and disingenuous, and has given alimdia cover not to comment on anything else actually relevant going on.

VOTE: Amrun

Why exactly did he join the wagon anyways? He makes it clear that his read on alimdia is much stronger but then joins the wagon after saying scum is on it because... why? How is he reading Amrun? He never says.

Earlier he also stated he townreads Icon, Mena, Dogwatch and Creature. Then before he hops on he includes me and Datisi in his townreads. That's literally the entire wagon right there.

I took it to mean that he thinks the wagon has good odds of flipping scum (amrun), not necessarily that scum is on the wagon itself. So I’m not sure he’s really being contradictory here.

I took it to mean that he thinks there's good odds of scum on the wagon (which I agree with) but if we could get clarification from him that'd be cool.

Either way I still don't like his hop on.

[AaronFrost]

Tbh I haven’t explored the alim/SS stuff as closely as I should have so I’m going to be ISOing you both today.

I mean I can sum it up. Alim is narrow-minded and has decided that since he doesn't like how I play, I must be scummy, even though he can't give any reason why I'm more likely to play this way as scum than as town (and indeed doesn't even understand what I'm asking when I ask for this), and literally everyone who's played with me before can confirm that the way I am playing is indicative only of my personality.

Can confirm that this is SS's playstyle, which is why I don't like alim's push.

[AaronFrost]

VOTE: texcat
After meh scrolling through some iso

Well this guy has a pretty fitting username...

[AaronFrost]

There’s nothing odd about it. I didn’t love my amrun vote (as I vocalized) and left that wagon. AFTER that, GL became one of my better scum reads and I felt much better about that vote. I don’t see why this concerns you.

Who were you scumreading at the time then? If you didn't like the Amrun wagon then there's no reason to hop onto it and you could've attempted to lead us elsewhere if that's how you really felt. It feels like you took the safer option here.

[AaronFrost]

I guess I see DDL as less opportunistic and more just bored town? I dunno

Kind of agree with this, but not necessarily bored town and maybe just bored in general.

[AaronFrost]

Would be willing to do DW today as well.

[AaronFrost]

first off - I see this happen a lot in mafia games. Someone acts scummy (regardless of their alignment), someone relatively town leader-esque presents a case, and a whole bunch of people town or scum jump on because the slot looks scummy.

That doesn't mean the suspicious slot is suddenly town now. You all are just assuming Amrun is town because a wagon sprung up. Good wagons can go fast especially if townies are mind-melding. I strongly disagree that wagon speed is ever indicative of alignment and if anything I think scum are often afraid to sheep onto fast mislynch wagons because they know it's a mislynch.

Then, you say, "there is no counter wagon!". What just happened on the last 4 pages should make it pretty clear that

I am now the counterwagon

.

Finally, I don't just hop on that wagon as scum. Like, let's make a similar argument S_S was making earlier in the game. If I, as town, always have novel and detailed and well-founded reasons to vote someone, why would I not make an effort to recreate those as scum? Do you really think scum!me is so blasé and arguably

stupid

to talk about how I think alimdia odds of scum are >> than Amrun odds of scum yet still vote the leading clear wagon?

I already explained that I was townreading the people on the Amrun wagon and that it's far more useful to join game-advancing wagons than to vanity vote in a game with a large number of players. I'm not townreading Amrun and so I feel comfortable voting for her. I'm not gonna pretend like I've got some cool new insightful scumtell that provides me with An Original Reason To Vote This Wagon when I don't have one, I just liked the case Menalque was making, didn't scumread anybody on the wagon, and felt it would be a good vote.

When did I ever assume Amrun is town? True, she's not my top scumread anymore but the wagon speed/composition has nothing to do with it, it was mostly her response to the wagon that made me less confident in her being scum. And yes I fully acknowledge that she could still be scum and have not indicated otherwise. However, I like my vote on you more right now.

There was no counterwagon at the time until I switched my vote.

I'm not saying you have to have this new insightful take that no one has ever said before, that's pretty unrealistic. But to specifically say 'I'm confident that alim is gonna flip scum' followed by the out of nowhere vote on Amrun raises my alarm. We had a few days left in the deadline at that point and plenty of time to start another wagon if you were less sure on Amrun. Hell, that's basically what I just did.

[AaronFrost]

If he's townreading everyone on the wagon, then how is there good odds of scum on it from his point of view?

PEDIT: Really seems like he cares how he looks in that post. Like I feel like as town no matter what you should go for your strongest scumreads.

there's two or three days left in this game and I know I don't have the pull right now to convince 7 other people to vote alimdia with me.

Also, I said it was good odds Amrun is scum, not that there are good odds of scum on it.

Okay I misread that part then so that's my bad.

[AaronFrost]

it is also pinging me in a bad way that amrun wagon jumped up to like 5 votes within like 5 minutes of me starting it whereas I've been suggesting ddl is scum for like a day and yet there's no play on that wagon whatsoever, despite multiple people saying that they'd compromise there or expressing doubts around his slot

I don't think players like DDL or texcat are good Day 1 lynches. I don't think lynching them would give us a good idea of where other players stand whereas lynching someone else would give us a good idea where they stand.

[AaronFrost]

UNVOTE:

Don't really want to do Amrun anymore. I think this is a better vote for today.

VOTE: Guilty Lion

His hop on the Amrun wagon was gross and I agree lack of a counterwagon is unsettling.

Have you seen Amrun's voting? And you don't think it's at least equally gross?

Eh her hop on me was bad yes but I liked her response to the wagon. I'm not like townreading her or anything now but I don't feel as confident in my original scumread.

I disagree that Amrun should always be the lynch today.

[AaronFrost]

Apologies in advance if I'm not super active this week. College finals are a bitch.

I only really skimmed the last few pages but damn that Creature wagon kind of came out of nowhere. I think I'd still prefer a GL lynch today but I'd be willing to go Creature as well.

Don't really like SS's adamant defense of GL.

[AaronFrost]

Frosty the Zote man, what do you think about the Datisi slot?

Last time I played with her she was scum who deepwolfed and got me mislynched in lylo so I'll never trust her again.

But in all seriousness, this game I'm not getting the same try-hard to look town vibes from her. She feels a lot more laid back here so I'd put her at a nullish-townlean.

[AaronFrost]

getting tunnely like you did here

oh i'm about to get extremely tunnely in this game alright

Can both of you like... not? I'm pretty sure both of you are town so stop this madness.

Like yeah the TSE comparison was unwarranted but like don't get tunneled on him because of that.

[AaronFrost]

I'm actually happy to push lurkers out because if they're scum free win, if they're town then I don't want them in lylo too.
But this game has a couple of vigs at least to take the lurkers out.

GL just seems more dodgy, with my recent posts explaining why.

Town only has 2 guns and we don't even know what what night(s) they're on. There's no guarantee that the lurkers will be shot here.

[AaronFrost]

Creature is v similar to textcat, DDR and DW. Idk how he got pushed over them.

Are you saying you'd rather do one of tex, DDR and DW instead of Creature?

[AaronFrost]

I'm good with lynching Creature today.

VOTE: Creature

[AaronFrost]

Aaron:

Don't really like SS's adamant defense of GL.

Why not?

Sorry I must have somehow missed that question.

Like I'm confused what makes you think town!GL would ever post what he did in 845. Now you could make the argument that scum!GL wouldn't just post a blatantly scummy statement like that, but you were actively trying to shut down any conversation about it when people called him out for it.

[AaronFrost]

I never actually townread him although he's quite obvious as town

I am? People usually scumread me when I'm town.

I think extremely disingenuous to bring up my playstyle from when I was a newbie because I feel my playstyle has grown since then, (and is still growing). And you were never townreading me in that game from what I remember, or at least weren't vocal about it.

SS's sheep on Creature's weak meta case is awful.

[AaronFrost]

Why is aaron scum?

Already said:

I should be able to tell he's obvtown if he's town but he isn't

He's just standing in the sidelines and going along

I've been pretty busy irl so haven't had as much time to invest in this game as I'd like, but I don't feel like I've just been standing in the sidelines and going along with the flow. I've poked and pushed people I've found scummy and have been actively reading and forming reads as much as I can.

[AaronFrost]

SS's sheep on Creature's weak meta case is awful.

Elaborate.

Because if you truly felt this way about me, there were plenty of opportunities to put your vote on me.

Why would you, if you're town, give Creature (someone you were scumreading and have said was a decent wagon option) the benefit of the doubt and trust his read? Like it was so far out of left field.

[AaronFrost]

The only time anyone has ever said I was obvtown in a game was in Mini 2099 but that was scum skitter attempting to pocket me

[AaronFrost]

It's not just one game, but I can't tell it.

So was aaron lying? Are you an alt of someone whos been in games with aaron?

What?

He's referring to an ongoing game which I didn't bring up when you asked because... well... ongoing games.

[AaronFrost]

Because if you truly felt this way about me, there were plenty of opportunities to put your vote on me.

Correct, I had many opportunities to put my vote on you, and I took one of them. I shouldn't have to tell you that I'm conservative with my vote, and you can't honestly pretend that nothing changed between when I voted Creature and when I voted you.

I can have multiple people I'd be willing to vote, but I nevertheless have only one vote.

Why would you, if you're town, give Creature (someone you were scumreading and have said was a decent wagon option) the benefit of the doubt and trust his read? Like it was so far out of left field.

Because Creature is a strong player who is often ignored?

Like, I don't know what gave you the impression that my scumread on Creature was at all strong (I said things suggesting the contrary multiple times), and I don't know what gave you the impression that it wasn't something that could swing quickly (I specifically said it was due to lack of anything towny so a single towny post could completely reverse it. Not that that happened, but he made me reevaluate).

I know you're conservative with your vote, but the vote itself makes very little sense looking at your ISO. There's almost no mention of me apart from you asking someone why they were townreading me. That's it. No attempt at sorting me whatsoever.

So I'm correct in assuming you now townread Creature? Do you think Creature is right on his read of me?

[AaronFrost]

Who here knows Boon well enough to fearkill him?

I just won a game with him as scum. texcat was also in that game.

[AaronFrost]

Are we sure that Pret was a scum kill though? Because Salamence was mostly townread from what I remember so I think scum was more likely to kill him.

[AaronFrost]

Are we sure that Pret was a scum kill though? Because Salamence was mostly townread from what I remember so I think scum was more likely to kill him.

Interesting. You think that Boon was a vig shot because Salamence was the scum kill?

Possibly, but probabaly unlikely with how little town guns there are

[AaronFrost]

I didn't forget that scum could pick guns. I guess for a hot minute I thought scum could only kill if they had guns.

[AaronFrost]

Possibly, but probabaly unlikely with how little town guns there are

Please expand on this, as much as you can.

I'm not trying to needle you for a contradiction or anything, I just want to hear your thoughts.

Right now I'm trying to figure out what warranted killing Pret and whether it was a town kill or a scum kill.

Dogwatch
Iconeum
DrDolittle
alimdia
Texcat
AaronFrost

He was scumreading Datisi towards the end of yesterday and then brought these names up as potential partners.

[AaronFrost]

Yeah now that I think about it both kills were probably scum kills.

[AaronFrost]

If a town gun hit a town rose, scum would want to know that is what I’m saying.

Well there's only one town gun left so probably best that info stays hidden for the time being.

[AaronFrost]

I was just pondering how many shots scum have left and hoping that they wasted one or more last night.

Probably best to err on the side of caution and assume at least two scum have guns. Possibly all of them.

[AaronFrost]

I'm not so convinced scum was on that wagon tbh. It was the amrun wagon that felt more scummy to me, not creature's.

amrun [7] - Menalque,

Datisi

,

Iconeum

,

AaronFrost

,

Dogwatch

,

GuiltyLion

,

Creature

Creature [8] - Salamence20,

GuiltyLion

,

Datisi

, Amrun,

AaronFrost

,

Dogwatch

,

Iconeum

, alimdia [LYNCH]

Can you break your reasons for this down for me? Because most of the people on the Amrun wagon were also on the Creature wagon.

[AaronFrost]

Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~

What would I have to gain by faking a townslip? I wouldn't even consider that a townslip either.

[AaronFrost]

Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~

What would I have to gain by faking a townslip? I wouldn't even consider that a townslip either.

The reaction in 1399. You'd have ez TR's to gain. And coming in the day wondering if the kill was made by scum or Town (when it's much more likely both were made by scum) sounds like a ~townslip~ to me.

Plus, that whole part about "figuring out if Pret's been shot by scum or Town" and listing 7 people he was suspecting feels a bit like both fake busywork and insincere, since one of Creature's last pushes was you.

So because Creature was scumreading me that means everything I do is fake and insincere? That logic might hold up if Creature was still in the game, but he's not. And even if he was, his read on me wouldn't effect how I play the game.

[AaronFrost]

I never said that. What I was referring to (and which struck me as odd) is that you listed out all the names Pret gave out as possible scumbuddies of mine. I think Town would be more likely to just name Pret's strongest SR (me) then to list a bunch of names out. Why did you a bit after listing them conclude that both kills were probably made by scum?

And how would that logic be still holding up if Creature were alive?

If it was a scum kill then at least one person in that list likely scum. Saying 'oh it must have been Datisi because that was Pret's strongest scum read' is very surface level.

And if Creature is still alive and scumreading me, then scum!me is going to do everything I can to look town. Since he was lynched, if I were scum I'd be breathing a huge sigh of relief right now.

Town!me isn't going to let another player's read on me effect how I play.

[AaronFrost]

Are you implying that my VCA was garbage and a distraction? Is this separate to my VCA?

Your statement that it was probably 2 on 1 off, while true, was a distraction, because then you go on to say there's a 33% chance of hitting scum in {texcat, DDL, S_S}, which is not supported by math, and you've given no evidence for it.

It is though, assuming that he knows himself to be town. For someone who was off the wagon, it would be a 25% chance of hitting scum

[AaronFrost]

I never said that. What I was referring to (and which struck me as odd) is that you listed out all the names Pret gave out as possible scumbuddies of mine. I think Town would be more likely to just name Pret's strongest SR (me) then to list a bunch of names out. Why did you a bit after listing them conclude that both kills were probably made by scum?

And how would that logic be still holding up if Creature were alive?

If it was a scum kill then at least one person in that list likely scum. Saying 'oh it must have been Datisi because that was Pret's strongest scum read' is very surface level.

And if Creature is still alive and scumreading me, then scum!me is going to do everything I can to look town. Since he was lynched, if I were scum I'd be breathing a huge sigh of relief right now.

Town!me isn't going to let another player's read on me effect how I play.

Do you think there's scum in that list? Who do you suspect?

And okay, but that logic could still only hold true if you were scum to begin with?

I think it's likely. Right now I think Dogwatch is the most likely to flip scum. I don't like how she opened today by saying the Creature wagon was town motivated and the Amrun wagon was scum motivated despite most of the players on the Amrun wagon being on the Creature wagon.

Yeah I suppose that logic could hold true but I think it'd have a harder time faking it as scum.

[AaronFrost]

It is though, assuming that he knows himself to be town. For someone who was off the wagon, it would be a 25% chance of hitting scum

No. It's only true if we are completely positive that it's 2-on 1-off, which we aren't. Just because that's the most likely scenario doesn't mean we can take it for granted.

Fair enough. I think it is the most likely scenario too but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be true.

[AaronFrost]

Wait I SR DW as well... but are you TRing Amrun atm or ?

I'm leaning town on her right now.

[AaronFrost]

Wait I SR DW as well... but are you TRing Amrun atm or ?

I'm leaning town on her right now.

So you think both main wagons on D1 are T?

Care to do some wagon analysis then?

Look at 1453. To reiterate, I think it's likely that scum was on both wagons since most of the people on the Amrun wagon were also on the Creature wagon. Which means there's probably at least one scum in {DW, GL, Dats, and Icon}

[AaronFrost]

My TR on Amrun is mostly gut/tone. 1228 especially struck me as townie. Why would scum Amrun feel the need to ISO one of Icon's scum games?

[AaronFrost]

The problem is that there's a quite a bit of slots I'm not exactly TRing.

most of my lower reads are PoE rather than actual SR's.

So where does the PoE come in? How can you PoE if there's very few slots that you're townreading?

[AaronFrost]

Ftr, 1407 and 1408 felt really fake to me

Your push on me feels sorta fake too especially since you were TRing me yesterday

[AaronFrost]

y'all nonvoters need to vote, there's nothing forcing anybody to do anything right now

VOTE: Dogwatch

[AaronFrost]

the case that you guys are completely neglecting the prior that amrun is a strong town player

this is not the work of a strong town player. this a weak meandering day 2, followed by a weak day 1

please update correctly

So because Amrun isn't playing as strong of a town game here, that means she must be scum? Wouldn't she try to replicate that more if she was scum?

Like I'm not doubting that Amrun is a strong player or anything, but the case 'she isn't playing to her meta, must be scum' is shallow and surface level.

[AaronFrost]

Right now I think lynching in {texcat, alimdia, DogWatch, DDL, Something_Smart, Iconeum} will yield at least 2 scum. Within that, I’d prefer texcat right at this minute. DogWatch is acceptable.

Why is texcat your preferred lynch right now?

[AaronFrost]

Right now I think lynching in {texcat, alimdia, DogWatch, DDL, Something_Smart, Iconeum} will yield at least 2 scum. Within that, I’d prefer texcat right at this minute. DogWatch is acceptable.

Why is texcat your preferred lynch right now?

Speaking of which...

@Mod:

can you prod texcat?

[AaronFrost]

TRs: {GL, Icon, S_S, alimdia}
TRs but what was that push: {Mena, DDL}
PoE: {Aaron, DW, Tex, Amrun}

This is where I am ftr

And I think I called you Town once, which was after the first wagon on you that I felt emerged for BS reasons.

Can't really PoE though when no one here is confirmed town. Why not just say you're scumreading them?

[AaronFrost]

Like I'm not doubting that Amrun is a strong player or anything, but the case 'she isn't playing to her meta, must be scum' is shallow and surface level.

No you are right AF. Shes not playing to her meta. I should town read her

I'm not saying that you have to TR her, I'm saying that if you are SRing her, then you should attempt to make a case on her that isn't meta.

[AaronFrost]

I really don’t like that we went for a lucky slot yesterday and it flipped town and despite that you wanna follow the exact same strategy again today @GL

I'm also a bit hesitant to go for texcat because I finished a game with her not to long ago where she lurked a lot as town and I was able to push her as an easy mislynch as scum.

PEDIT: Well damn

[AaronFrost]

Still waiting on answers from Dogwatch

[AaronFrost]

Ok first thing I'm not sure what you mean about the PoE, Aaron? Yeah nobody is conftown but those are people that I was to some extent TRing so... ?

I don't really like the use of the phrase because it doesn't really apply to the situation. Like when you use it it sort of implies that you don't have any strong scumreads, but like you've also made it clear you're not TRing anyone in that group. Why not just say you're scumreading them?

[AaronFrost]

I don't like Mena's GL case either. The entire thing is full of misreps of how GL is actually playing here.

[AaronFrost]

Doesn't PoE literally refer to the group of people you're not TRing?

Yeah I suppose, but I think the phrase is more applicable when you can rule out conftown players to find the remaining scum.

[AaronFrost]

hmmmm

Aaron why did it seem Townie to you that Amrun did an Ico meta check?

I just seems like sort of a bizarre thing for scum to do or even bring up. Like you could argue that she's doing it for townpoints, but it didn't read that way to me and I don't think that's something scum!Amrun would do to try and get town points.

[AaronFrost]

I don't know, the way he's speaking sorta, the TR on Amrun was weird, the reasoning feels weird, and the way he kept talking about PoE just reminds me of stuff scum!me did in that game

That said... I would really like to hear your answer to 1453

Not much to say, the amrun wagon's momentum felt more scum-driven to me in retrospect is the point i was trying to make, the first part is just me misremembering who was on it. So it's unlikely scum wasn't on the creature wagon.

So who was the scum driving the Amrun wagon then?

[AaronFrost]

The more GL posts the more I'm starting to townread him

[AaronFrost]

if you think that scum is off wagon then can you just fucking lynch ddl with us so I can get the towncred I need to lead this game

hate to break it to you but a DDL scumflip is not how you're gonna get towncred from me

Seconding this, a find it strange that he thinks that'll get him towncred. At the same time, I think Mena knows that a DDL townflip would look bad on him so I don't think Mena is scum pushing a mislynch on town!DDL

Hmm, Datisi might be right about her tinfoil theory

[AaronFrost]

For being a vague slot sure seems people are okay with me staying that way

Well you're already at half of the posts that your predecessor had so that's a start

[AaronFrost]

Do you have any questions for me, or was that just generic complaining about low activity?

Happy birthday!

I think he was just complaining about your low activity

[AaronFrost]

@DDL

why do you think my 1779 is town? How did that change your read on me?

[AaronFrost]

its not even the leadership role, its blatantly sticking his neck out when he's clearly wrong. i don't think menalque-style-scum plays like that you know - he would give himself some form of out

idk

This is the reason I don't think Mena is scum. I think scum!Mena would've backed off of the DDL push by now because if it goes through, then he knows it'll look bad on him and he'd want to avoid that as much as possible.

I think the only scenario where Mena is scum here is if he's scum with DDL and this is his attempt at getting towncred.

[AaronFrost]

I'll hammer in 12 hours. If anyone has any objections speak now.

[AaronFrost]

Oh I somehow missed that.

I'll wait for Mena then, but consider this intent to hammer.

[AaronFrost]

Here's a breakdown of why I don't like your GL case Mena.

your reaction was massively over defensive and I don’t really see why town!you would be worried about it

I don't think his reaction was over defensive. And even if it was, is being defensive a scummy trait? Town players have every reason to defend themselves as much as scum players do.

You seem off as well in that you’re choosing to throw quite subtle shade at me instead of trying to work with me

Where was he throwing shade at you?

You’re making a really weird semantics point while simultaneously saying that it’s not so much to influence the game as it is for you to look back at later despite that it’s obviously influencing the game by throwing shade at my slot

Again where was the shade?

Your immediate reaction to being voted is also really defensive “how could you possibly be scum reading me” and again trying to throw shade at me which isn’t what I think you do with someone who I’m pretty sure you were townreading before

Again I don't think GL has been overly defensive in the way which you're painting this to be.

But mostly you’re trying to direct lynches onto the unproductive slots while trying to keep your distance from it by talking about how “I personally don’t have any good reason not to lynch them” which is super awkward phrasing that I don’t think is likely to come from town who I think would just say “I wanna lynch tex/DW for being lurksacks” rather than feeling such a need to justify it

Fair point about tex/Gamma, but I think there's plenty of other reasons for lynching DW other than them just lurking.

It would also make sense from a gamestate point of view in that scum have probably been relatively happy with things and letting the game tick over rather than highly contesting it which makes me think the most likely slots that looked like they were lynchable today were all town (DW, tex, maybe ddl)

GL's become one of my stronger townreads today because his attempts to solve feel genuine and he's showing a townie mindset. I don't think he's been overdefensive or 'shading' your slot, but rather trying to sort it.

[AaronFrost]

as noted, this is probably fair. but instead of asking me at the time why I thought he was being overly defensive (ie that he shifted from a hard TR on me to going "if you dare think I'm scum you must be scum") you just called my push bad and didn't pursue it which is ehh

In hindsight I should've asked about that, but I'm not the only one who thought the push was bad either. I'm pretty sure Icon called you out for the bad push before I did.

Fair point about tex/Gamma, but I think there's plenty of other reasons for lynching DW other than them just lurking.

okay, which are?

The wagon hopping yesterday, and in particular I didn't like how she opened today. I am liking her posting a bit more recently though so eh.

feel like I've already answered the points on over defensiveness and shading. why does me pushing at GL indicate that I'm scum just because you disagree? esp now that I don't really think GL is scum

I never said it made you scum, in fact I think I've said more about how you're most likely town here. I disagreed with the push and read, but t looks like you're coming around to town!GL .

[AaronFrost]

Also, S_S is bothering the shit out of me.

Honestly same

[AaronFrost]

Well I said I'd hammer in 12 hours like 24 hours ago so

VOTE: DDL

[AaronFrost]

oh uh sorry alim.

Should've posted that like 2 seconds sooner

[AaronFrost]

gg scum

Why'd you shoot me?

[AaronFrost]

gg scum

Why'd you shoot me?

IIRC, you came out of the DDL lynch looking really town and it seemed like you were being townread pretty well in general, plus you tunneled one of us. Honestly though I wanted Icon dead that night but it was a 2-1 vote.

Yeah I had you pegged as scum pretty early on. Didn't really get Menal or alimdia though so well played to you guys

[AaronFrost]

Thanks FG for modding this was a interesting idea for a setup