Brilliant, I like it. But for the sake that no one should ever suspect Kira of being Kira, er, I mean, Light-kun of being Kira, as Light-kun cannot be Kira, I vote:
Vote: Clockworkruse
*Granted, I am ll up for the 73% chance of win.
Open 82: Texas Justice Mafia (Game Over!) before 626
-
Light-kun
-
Light-kun
-
Light-kun
-
Light-kun Goon Light-kun
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 990
- Joined: June 14, 2008
Okay then
Circle theory.
Odds mafia member A is a on clock: 12/12
Odds that member b is next to A: 2/11
Odds that membe c is next to a or b: 2/10
Total odds of losing this(abc next to each other) way: 48/1320
However, this is irrelevant. If only 2 mafia members are side by side, then we lose by 1 townie versus 1 mafia. (or 2 mafia 1 town, depending on mafia's actions.)
So, that means the odds of a mafia win is Going to be 2/11 because the 12/12=1 thus, 1*2/11=2/11 But, there is still member c, who has the ability to increase the odds of a mafia win by also attempting to win.
Thus, the first shot: 2/11
Without the space, the member c has a 4/10 for winning! That means that the odds of us losing ultimately reach 58% (18.18% for the ab combo, and 30-40% for the ab or bc combo. The only time it is thirty is if a and b happen to land a seat apart, which reduce's C's win positions from four possible to three.)
73%>42-52%
-