Titus v. Alisae (endgame)
- Reasonably Rational
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But I like Alisae and have never smelled them. Scum!Alisae though, that beezy probably smells heinous.
Also we are ascetic, love you all, and are here to remind you that if you have NU and you do not claim that shit immediately we will ensure you are lynched when that shit comes out.
-Cerb
fuck dude all the pedits.Show"We'll see who is bad at mafia after I've lynched you." - RadiantCowbells
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NU=negative utility=an ability that likely decreases the power of the town, frequently referring to things that interfere with results or actions taken, because there are more town than scum, therefore something that messes with abilities is more likely to mess with town's reads and powers than scums...which is the reason why anyone who doesn't claim such things until D3 when somebody tried to cop them and failed is hugely suspicious, because they just wasted our power.
Also: Super fast D1's are *super* anti-town, but so are long fucking days period. Balance yo. D1 is the absolute best day to reflect back on late game to figure ALL the shit out, and if you make it end before people actually take stances and shit you remove all that value.
Titus: I haven't played in like 2 years, of the people in this game who I don't know, whose opinions should I respect even if they don't actually give me a logical reason for their position?
-Cerb
pedit: Titus would never *not* draft me. See: Literally every game we've had where we're town together and have a hood together and end up imploding because we can't trust one another.Show"We'll see who is bad at mafia after I've lynched you." - RadiantCowbells
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FL: Should I be like, actually driving hard for your D1 lynch on principle, as I suggested I would do in the signup thread? If not, why not?
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No no no, this isn't a trust question, you know me, I'm paranoid as fuck.In post 132, Titus wrote:
I don't trust anyone. Not even my hypothetical masons.In post 123, Reasonably Rational wrote:Titus: I haven't played in like 2 years, of the people in this game who I don't know, whose opinions should I respect even if they don't actually give me a logical reason for their position?
Look at motivations, not logic. I expect Ali to fuck with pure logic because that's where my VCA comes from?
This is a "I do not know the players in this game, so I do not know who I should respect the "gut" feelings of." type of question.
Same question really goes out to Ank and FL tbh, but they're not the IC.
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Is someone else making a list? Because this is the sort of shit I would normally make a list of, but low effort me is not going to make a list of it.
I highly recommend someone who is motivated make a list and post it for everyone.
Is there a universe where scum!Pine makes that claim? I don't think so? Like, if it's true then way to throw away a bunch of utility(though maybe there's other shit going on that outweighs a buncha ascetic stuff?)...and if it's fake umm...people just kill you.
Town pine=ascetic enabler=game balanced around mandatory mislynch?
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*nods*In post 333, Espeonage wrote:Just throwing it out there. Maybe Pine doesn't have to die.
That's the point of this question I believe.
Titus, please get to thinking about what % of the game has to be ascetic for taking a mislynch to be the optimal course of action. If we come below that bar, we get a free extra probtown/do not worry about this slot until lylo paranoia.
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But like if we wanted to play mountainous we would have joined a mountainous game?In post 341, OkaPoka wrote:Just be big brain and play this mountainous
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This is interesting. Is there some kind of running gag going on here, or did everyone just walk past this without noticing?In post 125, Bitmap wrote:Ok just carry me in main thread.
This seemed like it was important until later on the thread devolved into a huge mess of people putting out mason signals to obfuscate. Which got me thinking about why that happened when it happened instead of straightaway. Which made me keep this MQ in because ... there had to be a reason the super obfuscation came flying in. YMMV of course, but for those trying to keep track of what is important in all this shit posting.In post 151, Chemist1422 wrote:I do have some thoughts about how we should be handling the masonry but I'll hold onto them until they become relevant
There's so much to unpack in this. I'm quoting it so I will remember to come back to it later.In post 317, Pine wrote:Also, because I need to die early, I will be TRYHARDING this game. I am caught up. I will remain caught up. I will take at least one scum with me and give Titus (may she reign forever) the tools to eviscerate the rest
This is my first opportunity to be non-scum in one of these games and I will DO IT UP
Seems like a cat out of the bag moment, but if it makes you feel better I'm pretty sure the scums probably noticed how you reacted to Cerb claiming our NU. If anything the fact that they called attention to it maybe helps put a light on their motives?In post 347, Espeonage wrote:M&K and Pine are gonna wish they had both shut up when I inevitably flip n2.
-------------------------
Some thoughts at this juncture:
1.) Y'all can't keep doing this shit in the thread or there's no way I'm going to be able to engage. Took me almost an hour to read through all that bullshit for a few worthwhile nuggets. I really don't have the time for that shit. I'll be heading in to work in about an hour and I can't access the game while I work. Then I have to sleep again. You see where that will go. Please let me play. Stop the Shitposting™!
2.) I feel like I had more thoughts but Pine coming in derailed them.
3.) Titus why the hell didn't you draft us? Like ... you wanted to make it hard or something?
~D
P-Edit: Oh fuck off with that shit Ali.
P-Edit2: LOL at Espeonage thinking they can quick wagon us. Thanks for that laugh. If you're seriously town RN I'm gonna have a hell of a go at you post game. Just get your big boy pants on and be ready for it.
P-Edit3: I found a crumb!Show"We'll see who is bad at mafia after I've lynched you." - RadiantCowbells
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Can I encourage you for a little bit of hypothetical on this? We talked about this quite a lot in our slack since he made that post and even just some hypothetical spitballing could help with establishing probabilities I think.In post 382, Titus wrote:
Request noted, but I think that answer changes based on other setup things I don't know.In post 339, Reasonably Rational wrote:
*nods*In post 333, Espeonage wrote:Just throwing it out there. Maybe Pine doesn't have to die.
That's the point of this question I believe.
Titus, please get to thinking about what % of the game has to be ascetic for taking a mislynch to be the optimal course of action. If we come below that bar, we get a free extra probtown/do not worry about this slot until lylo paranoia.
-Cerb
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Why on earth would I want to do that? There has been such brilliant obfuscation... why point them back out?In post 397, Titus wrote:
I can't pick the people Ali picks, plus random left over. I expect you to FoS the masons by day 2.In post 389, Reasonably Rational wrote:3.) Titus why the hell didn't you draft us? Like ... you wanted to make it hard or something?
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Headed to work. Please keep the shitposing to a minimum.Show"We'll see who is bad at mafia after I've lynched you." - RadiantCowbells
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AF's argument has poor reasoning.
@Spiffeh and @Titus - Care to weigh in on why his reasoning is flawed?
The short version of what's going on here is this: We're town (and irritated Titus didn't draft us, but that's a convo for another day; her irrational confidence that she can make it work "eventually" is gonna lead to some bullshit around about day 3 if we're alive then). The way Amrun came in and reacted to someone else (Espeonage is what my brain is saying but I have to go back and check to be sure) softing a counterclaim to us makes me pretty sure that's town. Scum would have no reason to CC us in that way. More likely scum would claim after the question of what NU was got answered by Cerb and use us for cover. Setting up a conflict with us early in that way just spews town.
Then Pine comes along and claims Ascetic Enabler, and that's key. See ... we have a super powerful role with Ascetic being attached Neg Utility to raise just the dilemma we are in. It's pretty long established (at least for Cerb and I) that you claim your NU up front. The counterclaims and then claim of an Enabler implies that the ascetic is in place for some additional reason other than just to tip the balance a bit with the Neg Utility.
So knowing that we have a very powerful role and also seeing Espeonage claim to have a powerful role and having Pine ALSO imply a very powerful role, and having at least weak reasons to believe they're town, the conclusion I'm arriving at is that there are more Ascetics out there who decided not to claim it. IF there's symmetry and scum have (an) ascetic(s), I expect they are unclaimed ones at this point.
Hopefully we can get Spiffeh to give us more than a couple sentences because I'm super interested in what the thinks of it and specifically if my reasoning makes sense.
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Explain to me what I'm missing then. Seriously.In post 600, Titus wrote:
I'm irritated you keep saying this. I don't want to play wifom with Ali. Not winding up in my pool =/= not drafted and I would expect you both to pass that logic test.In post 596, Reasonably Rational wrote:and irritated Titus didn't draft us
As for why AF's argument is wrong, bad content is worse than no content.
We're not on Alisae's team. We're not in your mason group. We significantly discount the idea that you didn't take any masons. I don't see how we end up in this position unless you just didn't want us. Your explanation that we'll clash but move beyond it is frustrating to me because of that one game that had multiple PTs. Space Dandy 2?
Like ... you're unimpeachable for obvious reasons. We kind of thought we would be also.
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Oof sorry Titus. I'm an idiot sometimes. The word "draft" made me think that you had a priority order on the people you submitted. But obviously (now that you explained and I carefully read the 2nd post) if it were that way you would know if someone was scum because your preference draft on them failed. Plz disregard earlier derpness.
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I reject BoP. I frequently make (poor?) assumptions in games with mechanics new to me. This is demonstrable pretty much always.In post 617, Titus wrote:
Apology accepted. You'll still have to accept some side eye based on burden of proficiency though. You claimed you weren't a mason in the public thread after all, despite our years of playing together. You also claimed not to read for detail. Again, that's not you like.In post 616, Reasonably Rational wrote:Oof sorry Titus. I'm an idiot sometimes. The word "draft" made me think that you had a priority order on the people you submitted. But obviously (now that you explained and I carefully read the 2nd post) if it were that way you would know if someone was scum because your preference draft on them failed. Plz disregard earlier derpness.
~D
I'll need you to tell me who is scum.
~Titus
Day one first 24 hours scum reads? From me? This should be hilariously good.
Alisae is totally scum this game. Have you SEEN the shitposting?
Scum in: {TSE, FL, FA, Espe, S&W} <--- they all have at least weak evidence in my thoughts so far. Generally takes more than that plus Cerb poking logic before I'm more certain though, and it's still pretty early his time.
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I think anyone who votes for Pine needs to state whether they're voting because they think it's best to remove him ASAP given the expressed NU, OR if it's because you think he's scum.
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You know, you're going to get zero pushback when you call any reads given by this hydra terrible on D1.In post 677, Bitmap wrote:
This is a horrible scum list.In post 622, Reasonably Rational wrote: Scum in: {TSE, FL, FA, Espe, S&W} <--- they all have at least weak evidence in my thoughts so far. Generally takes more than that plus Cerb poking logic before I'm more certain though, and it's still pretty early his time.
~D
FL is not scum. Espe is not scum. And TSE is just a village idiot with a high chance of being town but annoying.
Like, we don't even give reads lists D1. I have no idea wtf Drixx is smoking thinking leaving the game for months suddenly gave him the ability to actually read people on D1.
Negative utility; abilities that hurt town.In post 681, gobbledygook wrote:
What does NU mean?In post 675, Reasonably Rational wrote:I think anyone who votes for Pine needs to state whether they're voting because they think it's best to remove him ASAP given the expressed NU, OR if it's because you think he's scum.
-Cerb
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Point of order, and about all I'll do in the way of spending my limited time defending myself at this juncture: I never indicated there was anything more to my role; that was all Drixx. Which sure, given we're a hydra doesn't remove the possibility of such risk-benefit analysis and a larger plan being in the works, but it's just a thing you're saying that's provably wrong about me and I figure you should know it. <3In post 912, Ankamius wrote:Cerb also indicated that there's a second part to his role
he's done this slow rolling as scum before, which is why I referenced that claiming ascetic doesn't necessarily become bad just because it doesn't look town; all that truly matters is that whether he is lynched before being able to execute whatever he has planned for the second part of his role
Drixx, idk, I have less direct experience playing with him and I don't even think I've ever seen him be indignant like that before; I don't think I'd be able to parse that properly by itself with where we're at right now
---
Now I'm off to breakfast, then class, then the mountains. I'll try to get some work done on the game so there's at least some benefit if you end up continuing down this path during my mostly absence, but no guarantees until like 14 hours from now.
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So the "case", such as it is, boils down to "One RR head is good at mechanics..." (Thanks for the shade by declaring Cerb as the mechanics wiz instead of both of us) followed by "... therefore Ali would have drafted them."
And then you want to argue that pure wifom speculation is the strongest case you think exists at this moment? You clearly haven't actually read the thread. Please GTFO with that weaksauce™.
Baseless speculation combined with fear mongering about our role is pretty fucking terrible, if I'm being honest. Like ... if Mastina was in this game, I would expect that kind of shitty thinking to be employed against our slot because she has an irrational hate on for me/us and basically treats me/us as a policy lynch. But Ank?
~D
P.S. - I generally have Saturdays off but I am covering a shift tonight. Paired with Cerb having a busy day, there won't be much from us for most of the next 14+ hours and not likely from me until closer to 30 hours.Show"We'll see who is bad at mafia after I've lynched you." - RadiantCowbells
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Oof this is bad. Chemist is the easiest read in the thread right now. Please elaborate on how you came to that conclusion.In post 800, Sherlock and Watson wrote:After carefully reviewing my notes, rereading, and thinking carefully, I've decided I have no idea what the F chemist's alignment is
I might just save him for tomorrow or hope mech solves him somehow
-S
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Holy shit fl. I just woke up and wasn't going to post anything until I had the chance to like read things and make notes and shit instead of just focusing on what jumps out at me( since apparently I haven't played in long enough that far fewer things are jumping out at me), but I just have to say: I really really want you to finish this draft analysis/scum role filling thing, whatever the hell it is you're doing, but you should absolutely do so AFTER the game is over because even if you're both town and 100% accurate, I do not see this as a line that is likely to be judged as convincing to most players, so it's really just filler.
You do you though man.
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Titus has jokes!In post 1581, Titus wrote:Ank, say your definitive scumread and why please. If they are a mason, then I'll protect them. I don't believe anyplayer has a lead on my masonsreasonable. If a mason does wind up getting wagoned, I'll cancel the wagon forcefully. So please don't attempt to use mason hunting as an excuse. If a slot is a vigilante, be damn sure you're not shooting a mason but beyond that... leave it to me.(no pun intended)
I don't like your excuses not to give reads. I'm not a fan. Your rationale could apply to anyone. I get playing some cards close to the chest, so I only asked for one. If you're right, maybe we'll get a counter going.
For real though. I'm picking up what you put down. I'm also facking exhausted from working the extra shift last night. I've got to crash and get a few hours sleep then work tonight. Sorry to be a lurksack early in your game Titus
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I mean ... for what it's worth I think there's a gold mine of info in this day phase but too much of it still needs anchor points to be very useful. And yeah ... it's always been that way. Can't really trust bayesian reasoning without having something to weight probabilities by.In post 1659, Titus wrote:
It's ok. I know you. I don't publicly expect much Day 1 from y'all anyway. You know this. It's been that way for years.In post 1658, Reasonably Rational wrote:For real though. I'm picking up what you put down. I'm also facking exhausted from working the extra shift last night. I've got to crash and get a few hours sleep then work tonight. Sorry to be a lurksack early in your game Titus
~D
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What useful intent did you find in those posts? Because I can certainly see plenty of scum intent in all the noise, but not a whole lot of reason to townread the slot for those specific posts.In post 1707, Bitmap wrote:
okIn post 1702, Sherlock and Watson wrote:
u wanna fite?In post 1698, Bitmap wrote:I like Watson better.
-S
In post 1703, AaronFrost wrote:
Why do you like them?In post 1559, Bitmap wrote:Am I the only one that likes Boon's recent posts?They felt genuine and seemed like even though his approach (setup spec) was bad, his intentions didn't seem bad.
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AF - not ascetic
FA - has not claimed
gobbles - has not claimed
Fl - has not claimed
TSE - has not claimed
Did we ever get answers from these individuals? Because right now I just see 2 ascetic claims, which seems...low for a game with an ascetic enabler.
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I...I don't? Shit. Should I be doing that? Is that what YOU imagine???In post 1714, Sherlock and Watson wrote:Cerb do you imagine fingers snapping like you're at a slam poetry recital every time you make a post
-s
Can someone who isn't the fucking guilty child answer my query, in a fashion that is constructive.
Aaron: Your lack of certainty concerns me. Bah. Fine. I'll go like, ISO them or something.
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Hmm so TSE implied not ascetic by asking what ascetic was, gobbles asked to be the last to respond. FA definitely claimed not ascetic. FL definitely did not even say the word ascetic in any of their posts.
S+W: Did we get a definitive response from you? There was that whole commuter then oh right I'm actually ascetic thing, but I do not believe you have definitely stated whether you are or are not ascetic.
FL: Confirm asceticism or the absence thereof for your slot please.
TSE: Please explicitly state that you are or are not ascetic, thanks.
If you did and I missed it, please humor me and let me know you did so, and/or answer the question again.
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Gobble: It's about time for you to say yea or nay with regards to your asceticism as well! If FL refusing to share means you will also refuse to share, then just assume he's refused; if not, then just answer the question since whether he responds or not does not matter to you.
Fuck I'm turning into those people I hate who just spam the thread with a bunch of little fucking posts instead of putting it all together into a single thought. ><
-Cerb
pedit: TY SWShow"We'll see who is bad at mafia after I've lynched you." - RadiantCowbells
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OH AND SPIFFEH
SPIFFEH MY FRIEND
MY OTHER HEAD ASKED YOU A QUESTION AND YOU NOTED THE QUESTION AND FAILED TO RESPOND TO THE QUESTION.
PLZ RESPOND.
(I legitimately have no idea what Drixx asked you, but he complained to me yesterday morning about you not hopping on our wagon without even bothering to answer his question.)
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*cough*In post 1728, Reasonably Rational wrote:OH AND SPIFFEH
SPIFFEH MY FRIEND
MY OTHER HEAD ASKED YOU A QUESTION AND YOU NOTED THE QUESTION AND FAILED TO RESPOND TO THE QUESTION.
PLZ RESPOND.
(I legitimately have no idea what Drixx asked you, but he complained to me yesterday morning about younothopping on our wagon without even bothering to answer his question.)
-Cerb
I added a word. But yeah!
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Is this question what's holding you up from answering the ascetic question gobble?In post 721, gobbledygook wrote:
I will answer this if Pine can explain to me why it’s beneficial to answer this.In post 719, Titus wrote:Gobble, are you ascetic? I like joking around but this needs to be answered.
Titus: Is there even an actual popular wagon? We're stalling out at like 4 on every push.
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Fuck my life.
Okay, can someone explain to me why we're doing essentially nothing about the multiple people who have lied and/or danced around the whole ascetic thing(okay okay I guess we're wagoning S&W without conviction)? That would be gobbles, espe, and S&W. Low on time, but I'll ISO them all respectively shortly, but I"m pretty damn sure there's a buncha "these slots are fucking liars" things in all of their ISO's.
If there's some compelling reason why I shouldn't waste my time researching any of them in particular, please let me know before I do so.
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Pine not answering you is irrelevant, you moved the goal posts.In post 2786, gobbledygook wrote:
Why does it matter again..? Pine still hasn’t answered me.In post 2778, Reasonably Rational wrote:Fuck my life.
Okay, can someone explain to me why we're doing essentially nothing about the multiple people who have lied and/or danced around the whole ascetic thing(okay okay I guess we're wagoning S&W without conviction)? That would be gobbles, espe, and S&W. Low on time, but I'll ISO them all respectively shortly, but I"m pretty damn sure there's a buncha "these slots are fucking liars" things in all of their ISO's.
If there's some compelling reason why I shouldn't waste my time researching any of them in particular, please let me know before I do so.
-Cerb
It matters because lying etc is anti-town as fuck, particularly when the information is very fucking helpful when it comes to determining the likelihood of the honesty of someone's claim, and/or the alignment of said claim.
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Just woke up, then work, but let me know if you have anything in particular you want to hear my thoughts on.In post 3074, Titus wrote:I need to talk with RR today at a minimum. The gunsmith positive also goes against my theory.
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Are you asking me whether or not I think the pushes on S&W came from scum or from town? I *assume* that's what you're asking. I'll take a look at the wagon that formed there.In post 3087, Titus wrote:
Thoughts on S and W scum being a vote manipulation tactic?In post 3084, Reasonably Rational wrote:
Just woke up, then work, but let me know if you have anything in particular you want to hear my thoughts on.In post 3074, Titus wrote:I need to talk with RR today at a minimum. The gunsmith positive also goes against my theory.
-Cerb
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Short version: Nonzero but improbable. I'll elaborate after this meeting when I actually get to sit in my office.In post 3107, Titus wrote:
I realize my question was badly formed. Do you think S and W is scum and that two scum slots were deliberately wagoned d1 to fuck with my VCA?In post 3105, Reasonably Rational wrote:
Are you asking me whether or not I think the pushes on S&W came from scum or from town? I *assume* that's what you're asking. I'll take a look at the wagon that formed there.In post 3087, Titus wrote:
Thoughts on S and W scum being a vote manipulation tactic?In post 3084, Reasonably Rational wrote:
Just woke up, then work, but let me know if you have anything in particular you want to hear my thoughts on.In post 3074, Titus wrote:I need to talk with RR today at a minimum. The gunsmith positive also goes against my theory.
-Cerb
-Cerb
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MORNING MEETINGS OVER I CAN NOW TRY TO PLAY WHILE MAKING UP FOR THE FACT THAT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF WORK THIS WEEK I SPENT 95% OF MY TIME IN MEETINGS AND ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING.
Okay, so I've done a quick pass of things up to this point for today.
Insomnia, with regards to this:
The way scum and town FL react to that question(and play going forward) are different, at least, my expectations are different. Town FL wants the shit he's saying to actually be usable, so making him aware that the shit he's saying isn't going to actually accomplish anything *should* result in him toning it down. Scum FL cares *less* about how usable it is, though they still care, and is therefore more likely to continue wasting time on that.In post 3201, insomnia wrote:
Why were you more concerned here with how people perceived the strength of FL's analysis rather than the inability it causes onto other players to read FL in any way, especially for yourself? You didn't really express a town read on him before this, and this post is highly suggesting you town read him.In post 1498, Reasonably Rational wrote:Holy shit fl. I just woke up and wasn't going to post anything until I had the chance to like read things and make notes and shit instead of just focusing on what jumps out at me( since apparently I haven't played in long enough that far fewer things are jumping out at me), but I just have to say: I really really want you to finish this draft analysis/scum role filling thing, whatever the hell it is you're doing, but you should absolutely do so AFTER the game is over because even if you're both town and 100% accurate, I do not see this as a line that is likely to be judged as convincing to most players, so it's really just filler.
You do you though man.
-Cerb
Titus: Losing a scum slot on D1 is painful enough, imo, that someone with the awareness and planning skills required to put together that deliberate double bus play would see that as more harmful than the gain from "potentially" confusing your VCA. I don't think I've seen any huge indicators that the players in this game are going to be hanging on your VCA when push comes to shove; if that were the case, maybe I could see it as a single VCA 'cleared' scum slot could carry the game, but it just doesn't seem likely.
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Okay so let's have a quick Pine discussion with anyone who is present.
I see people proposing that it's more likely scum|Pine claims ascetic enabler/fake claims it, than keeps it to themselves. At least, that's the only way I can see any reason for people to be pushing Pine as scum.
What does scum!Pine get out of claiming that?
1) They learn who every ascetic is, and therefore which individuals exist who cannot be protected(though you should note that someone can be ascetic+bp or something, so that doesn't guarantee kill success)
2) They get town credit for putting a timer on their own life.
What are the downsides?
1) Timer on their life, and/or the risk that the town will reveal there are 17 ascetics and conclude they must die IMMEDIATELY.
I'm probably missing some things, trying to do this quick.
Okay, so let's say there are <x ascetics, where x is the number of ascetics required for lynchthreshold of town slots to conclude he must die today. He gets to live for today, but will LIKELY die eventually, and town(theoretically) knows where they should and should not be pointing their abilities to avoid confusion.
If there are >x ascetics, he just gets lynched.
I see the upside of the situation as being, at best, neutral; town gets knowledge that scum does as well, thereby narrowing the knowledge gap between the informed and uninformed factions, and his team needs additional lynches to win due to his probable death before endgame.
The downside is, to put it plainly, all bad.
That, in short, is why scum!Pine is *highly* unlikely to make that play, even without considering all the *benefits* that come from being scum vs what you know to be enough ascetics to justify an enabler role. Hell, the game is fucking balanced around your slot making a bunch of people ascetic. If everyone stops being ascetic early, it's very likely that the game balance swings significantly towards the town.
Again. just more reason why that claim does not come out of scum!Pine, barring some mechanical fuckery like an ascetic on his team who has abilities that can only be used when they're not ascetic(which is something I don't even know is a possibility, as I don't typically play games following "Normal" guidelines).
-Cerb
pedit: Nope, haven't properly analyzed FL's play since then; I've read the entire game, but not with the necessary depth and/or ISOing I want. My surface level impression of his posting since is that he's largely stopped pushing that particular draft discussion, though he has touched on it in passing. As he didn't hard defend what he was doing as a valuable/viable scumhunting plan, and didn't continue focusing primarily on that, he's currently in both his scum and town ranges with regards to that particular metric.
This is a question to everyone: Does scum!FL bus MariaR/Dunn? Like yes, I know he COULD do it, because he's a cocky ass who is quite sure he could win the game by himself after sacrificing his entire team, but just in terms of "people he wants to play with on his scum team", does he give up that pleasure as a person? I have literally no idea how he feels about those individuals, so someone fill me in on past interactions that you've noticed.Show"We'll see who is bad at mafia after I've lynched you." - RadiantCowbells
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FL, have you read my most recent posts?
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K, noted, so this is FL deciding that he doesn't care about the fact that by bringing up his draft analysis again he's doing the thing that I expected scum!him to do.In post 3267, Flavor Leaf wrote:Yeah. I didn’t have a comment about it, but I took it in.
Not sure exactly what I think of it as a whole, but seems like solid analysis.
Got it.
Not sure what this means, but got it.
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The fact that you have brought up said analysis immediately after a post where I note that I would expect that it's more likely for scum! you to continue to utilize that, and you say you have read said post, means that you do not care about the fact that I expect scum!you to do that; or at least, it means that you are doing it with full awareness of the fact that my slot believes that action is in line with scum!fl over town!fl, and are not bothered enough by that to *not* do so.In post 3280, Flavor Leaf wrote:
You say I don’t care about it? Where is that? Show the facts. I said I didn’t have a comment on it. There’s a difference.In post 3278, Reasonably Rational wrote:
K, noted, so this is FL deciding that he doesn't care about the fact that by bringing up his draft analysis again he's doing the thing that I expected scum!him to do.In post 3267, Flavor Leaf wrote:Yeah. I didn’t have a comment about it, but I took it in.
Not sure exactly what I think of it as a whole, but seems like solid analysis.
Got it.
Not sure what this means, but got it.
-Cerb
And I’m bringing up more of my draft analysis.
Which means either you do not view my read on you as threatening, or you want to get towncred from being "fearless", or...well, there's a lot of shit within your range that explains that decision, honestly.
I'm just noting that this was a conscious choice made by you, and not something that you inadvertently did because you hadn't read the thread.
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Note the bold below, FL.In post 3286, Flavor Leaf wrote:For me to be scum here, you’d have to accept I hard bussed ScumJOAT Maki (i feel this is extremely hilarious for reasons I’ll have to wait to bring up).
I have literally *0* idea about the exact question you're posing, and it's the same question that I want more insight on.In post 3247, Reasonably Rational wrote:Okay so let's have a quick Pine discussion with anyone who is present.
I see people proposing that it's more likely scum|Pine claims ascetic enabler/fake claims it, than keeps it to themselves. At least, that's the only way I can see any reason for people to be pushing Pine as scum.
What does scum!Pine get out of claiming that?
1) They learn who every ascetic is, and therefore which individuals exist who cannot be protected(though you should note that someone can be ascetic+bp or something, so that doesn't guarantee kill success)
2) They get town credit for putting a timer on their own life.
What are the downsides?
1) Timer on their life, and/or the risk that the town will reveal there are 17 ascetics and conclude they must die IMMEDIATELY.
I'm probably missing some things, trying to do this quick.
Okay, so let's say there are <x ascetics, where x is the number of ascetics required for lynchthreshold of town slots to conclude he must die today. He gets to live for today, but will LIKELY die eventually, and town(theoretically) knows where they should and should not be pointing their abilities to avoid confusion.
If there are >x ascetics, he just gets lynched.
I see the upside of the situation as being, at best, neutral; town gets knowledge that scum does as well, thereby narrowing the knowledge gap between the informed and uninformed factions, and his team needs additional lynches to win due to his probable death before endgame.
The downside is, to put it plainly, all bad.
That, in short, is why scum!Pine is *highly* unlikely to make that play, even without considering all the *benefits* that come from being scum vs what you know to be enough ascetics to justify an enabler role. Hell, the game is fucking balanced around your slot making a bunch of people ascetic. If everyone stops being ascetic early, it's very likely that the game balance swings significantly towards the town.
Again. just more reason why that claim does not come out of scum!Pine, barring some mechanical fuckery like an ascetic on his team who has abilities that can only be used when they're not ascetic(which is something I don't even know is a possibility, as I don't typically play games following "Normal" guidelines).
-Cerb
pedit: Nope, haven't properly analyzed FL's play since then; I've read the entire game, but not with the necessary depth and/or ISOing I want. My surface level impression of his posting since is that he's largely stopped pushing that particular draft discussion, though he has touched on it in passing. As he didn't hard defend what he was doing as a valuable/viable scumhunting plan, and didn't continue focusing primarily on that, he's currently in both his scum and town ranges with regards to that particular metric.
This is a question to everyone: Does scum!FL bus MariaR/Dunn? Like yes, I know he COULD do it, because he's a cocky ass who is quite sure he could win the game by himself after sacrificing his entire team, but just in terms of "people he wants to play with on his scum team", does he give up that pleasure as a person? I have literally no idea how he feels about those individuals, so someone fill me in on past interactions that you've noticed.
I feel like you know all these things and understand what I'm doing, but are feigning ignorance to...test me? Not sure. Your goals are, as always, opaque.
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What makes you think scum ascetic(s) claimed? You seem to be readily accepting 3 ascetic claims with an enabler and at least two other crumbs of ascetic, but also seem to be excluding the probability that scum would avoid claiming it. This seems bad, particularly because of how quickly Pine outed what he does.In post 3311, gobbledygook wrote:Thinking my priorities today are {TSE, Bitmap, Espeonage, RR}
I do think one of the ascetics is scum... just don’t know if it’s Espeonage or RR.
I kinda agree with this. I have to head to work now, but remind me to drop in some more thoughts on Espe tomorrow. It's not as refined as I would like, but I'm working crazy hours and you fuckers spammed the shit out of day one, so it's not airtight or anything. I think it would be good if other people take a look for themselves then see my thoughts. I should be home from work in 11-12 hours.In post 3350, Flavor Leaf wrote:I feel like Espeonage is the most likely to flip scum out of the current people posting
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By definition, at least one of your four scum reads is incorrect. Which is that most likely to be, in your opinion?In post 3371, insomnia wrote:I’m not town telling so feel free to rush me
It’s time my scum game got better for a change
You’ll actually have to read my posts now peeps sorry
Aaron / Chemist / RR / Pine
Also, did you not take a look at what I had to say about Pine? If you want to call Pine scum, engage me on that.
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Elaborate.In post 3356, gobbledygook wrote:TrueSoulEnergy
Espeonage
Bitmap
insomnia
Chemist1422
AaronFrost
Ankamius
Reasonably Rational
I am pretty sure these 8 names contain 3 scum which is pretty good odds I think. I really think that TSE has high scum equity. Especially with the BS role he claimed. He would be trying to kill scum as hard as possible knowing he could kill them when they killed him. His play is different from the Masquerade Dance I saw and his play in Mainstream Mafia II where I felt he was town siding.
I think I am most upset about not having a town read on Reasonably Rationaland my reads on Espeonage and AaronFrost weakening.
I'm unaware of us having any historical connection, so I don't quite see why you should be especially invested in having a town read on our slot.
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Ank: I need a list of 5 slots in this game that are 100% town to you, with reasons why. I agree that you're especially strong at identifying town, so go do it.
Insomnia: Simplest version is scum!pine loses a lot of scum power in real-claiming that role, at the risk of dying. I didn't cover fake claiming that role; there *is* a nonzero chance that scum!Pine could fake claim the ascetic enabler after seeing two ascetic claims, but the risk to his life remains real, and the gain is minimal since in that situation I don't see why he'd expect there to be more than 2 ascetics, therefore he just paints a target on himself in exchange for learning that he can assume people aren't ascetic, as he would have done anyways.
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I'm going to need a lot more than that to have cause to agree with you on Chemist.In post 3373, insomnia wrote:As for Chemist he’s scum because of his first push that was ever serious was on TSE and that’s enough to conclude a scum read on him, he’s been on MU and knows how goofy towns act, this is not town chemist.
Now, let's see what you had to say about Aaron.
This is much stronger. This is, unfortunately, going to be a common thing in this game..but I just don't know Aaron. Is town!Aaron an active sorter?In post 3239, insomnia wrote:
I'll just give a sneak peek, fine. Let's go through this post for a bit.In post 591, AaronFrost wrote:
I know what he claimed. My wording was off, as it usually is, but basically my thought was that if he's a town ascetic enabler, then one of Amrun/RR (the ascetic claims) is likely scum.In post 564, Maki and Kaito wrote:
Uh, he's not claiming ascetic though, and this is worded like you believe he is claiming ascetic - he's claiming ascetic enabler. If you're not paying close attention to his claim, how can you say you believe it?In post 481, AaronFrost wrote:
K so going back to this, I trust Pine's claim which, if true, likely means one of the other two ascetic claims is scum.In post 439, Titus wrote:
We have 3+ ascetics. So, at least skim.In post 438, AaronFrost wrote:Anything important happen in these last 18 pages, because that'll effect how closely I read it.
Claim whether you're ascetic as well please.
I should probably put my vote somewhere huh
VOTE: RR
In Aaron's mind, he believes Pine's claim. He sees no reason why scum would fake claim.
Now, that would incentivize him to try and figure in between Amrun and RR, as, from his PoV, there's a likely scum.
The timing at which the vote is placed down is really bad, as well as the way he goes around voting it.
As town, you were just proven with mechanical info that there's a likely scum candidate in between Amrun / RR. That would give you some heat you know, some hype energy as you've narrowed two scum (from your PoV) and that would make you want to sort them and find who the town is and who the scum is.
That vote is more like an RVS than actually sorting in a mechanical lock box, it's like "Meh whatever it's anyone" which doesn't really make sense. Town!Aaron would pay close attention to Amrun and RR and make a call much later on after thorough analysis and questioning.
This is not how a town would approach a situation like this, from their PoV. The vote is weaksauce, it's not based around sorting anyone which he had a lot of incentive for, as he's been granted a mechanical PoE between 2 people, which is like anything a town would ask for, like a holy grail.
Hope it makes some sense. Try and put yourself in Town!Aaron's shoes here. His mentality and actual in thread actions aren't consistent. After this vote is placed he doesn't even try and figure if he made the right choice, he's just posting for the sake of posting.
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I can see your confusion. The bold was me being concerned about taking his statement regarding the ascetic or not claim of another individual at face value, given that he didn't make the statement with certainty. It had nothing to do with a read.In post 3515, insomnia wrote:The Aaron / RR shenanigan going on is actually funny, they're both kind of considering each other but not hard pushing each other at all.
This is really weird lol, it's so robotic and why would he want the focus to be directed on this?In post 596, Reasonably Rational wrote:AF's argument has poor reasoning.
@Spiffeh and @Titus - Care to weigh in on why his reasoning is flawed?
Why pick people to prove someone's argument is bad rather than considering whether it's argued by a scum or a town? The underlying motive is to disprove the argument made but not to draw anything from it, which is really weird.
In post 1717, Reasonably Rational wrote:Aaron: Your lack of certainty concerns me. Bah. Fine. I'll go like, ISO them or something.this won't get followed up on and it's the only time he takes the time to actually call something that's not mechanically related.
I think you also don't have any clue how Drixx and I approach the game. The thing you view as "OMG THIS SLOT IS DEFINITELY SCUM BECAUSE THEY SAW A MECHANICAL THING AND DIDN'T PUSH ON IT IN A WAY THAT I FEEL WAS EFFECTIVE/DIDN'T SHOW INVESTMENT" is more of an "Interesting. AF expressed the mechanical belief that one of two slots must be scum, and voted one of them without expressing why they voted that one over the other. I should poke him about why he voted me over Amrun if the two are equally likely to be scum in his opinion. However, his fundamental reasoning is flawed, in that there is no cause to assume that a game with an ascetic enabler has exactly two scum, that exactly one of those two slots is scum, and that scum are definitely within the pool of early claimants. Let's see if someone else is capable enough to correct him, and see how he reacts after being corrected."
Of course, then you have to add in the fact that we're both busy and I'm already spending too much time on this game just reading, and we're happy to let this shit sort itself out.
Alrighty, you have a small view into the way I think about things; this is the last time I'll talk to you, at least, about how to interpret my play, barring pending death. ^^
-Cerb
pedit: RIGHT. Alright Titus, prospects noted, I'm not a huge fan of gobble within that group(as in I've actually looked at their ISO and have suspect posting I'll present in a bit for peer review to make sure I'm not being biased because of their irrational focus on us).Show"We'll see who is bad at mafia after I've lynched you." - RadiantCowbells
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OHH. Also need to clarify the mech reasoning used by whoever for saying hectic(or was it oka? I need to fucking review) is conftown for being vanilla, due to the fact that there's no reason why Alisae would put a goon on their team.
@Mods: Did Alisae get to choose the specific roles on their team?
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Drixx here. I don't have to work tonight so hopefully Cerb and I can actually talk some when he gets out of his class. I have some observations already waiting for him RE: Insomnia. Page 136 if you want to look. It's a "do you see what I see?" kind of thing.In post 3538, Titus wrote:Cerb, I would like to hear your thoughts. I know you're not a big gobble fan. Thoughts on insomnia? Do you think insomnia and AF could be linked? Gobble with either? Without telling me on who, are you close to placing a vote today? How's Drixx doing?
Like ... I'm a little torn with Insomnia here. It would obviously be better if he wasn't barking up the wrong tree with us, but thems the breaks.
There are a couple slots I am comfortable voting for. Cerb and I really haven't talked nearly as much as we usually do though.
And ... I'm tired. First day off in a couple weeks, so I'm pushing myself to stay awake all day and sleep tonight when usually I crash by 11am.
~D
P.S. - I'd prefer if Chemist were NOT wagoned just now. I'll say more on that later.Show"We'll see who is bad at mafia after I've lynched you." - RadiantCowbells
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I'd say you just undid any possible benefit that could have come from sitting on that information; holding guilties is something Drixx and I are *very* experienced with, and you have both failed to do anything to get Chemist's teammates to reveal themselves, and also revealed too early in the day for you to have gathered much data at all.In post 3544, TrueSoulEnergy wrote:In post 3542, Reasonably Rational wrote:
Drixx here. I don't have to work tonight so hopefully Cerb and I can actually talk some when he gets out of his class. I have some observations already waiting for him RE: Insomnia. Page 136 if you want to look. It's a "do you see what I see?" kind of thing.In post 3538, Titus wrote:Cerb, I would like to hear your thoughts. I know you're not a big gobble fan. Thoughts on insomnia? Do you think insomnia and AF could be linked? Gobble with either? Without telling me on who, are you close to placing a vote today? How's Drixx doing?
Like ... I'm a little torn with Insomnia here. It would obviously be better if he wasn't barking up the wrong tree with us, but thems the breaks.
There are a couple slots I am comfortable voting for. Cerb and I really haven't talked nearly as much as we usually do though.
And ... I'm tired. First day off in a couple weeks, so I'm pushing myself to stay awake all day and sleep tonight when usually I crash by 11am.
~D
P.S. - I'd prefer if Chemist were NOT wagoned just now. I'll say more on that later.
What if I told you I got an annymonus message saying Chemist is Scum.
Re: E's team choices: Got it, for some reason I thought I had seen that E only chose the members of the team, not all the abilities, but I am both crazy and lazy. So yeah, agreed that it is unlikely a VT is scum, UNLESS E's condition's about the setup including town not having any way to rolecop, or E insisted on town having a way to do so, and wanted to lean on the inevitable assumption that E would not have chosen to have a vanilla slot.
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FL is locktown? What?In post 3599, Hectic wrote:
Leafy is close to locktownIn post 3583, TrueSoulEnergy wrote:@Hectic
Do you believe the same?
Do you agree with AF on his FL read?
Somni remind me why you're townreading Bitmap?
37/38 is not a good reason
why can't scum be honest about stuff like that?
don't think it's AI personally
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1500 is super weak; the no-bussing meta would be stronger if FL were weaker at scum.In post 3606, Hectic wrote:
1500 + never seen Leafy bus like thatIn post 3605, Reasonably Rational wrote:
FL is locktown? What?In post 3599, Hectic wrote:
Leafy is close to locktownIn post 3583, TrueSoulEnergy wrote:@Hectic
Do you believe the same?
Do you agree with AF on his FL read?
Somni remind me why you're townreading Bitmap?
37/38 is not a good reason
why can't scum be honest about stuff like that?
don't think it's AI personally
-Cerb
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Like, the dude literally had some shit about how if you ever asked yourself if he would do something as scum, the answer was yes, in his sig, either on this account or boon.In post 3607, Reasonably Rational wrote:
1500 is super weak; the no-bussing meta would be stronger if FL were weaker at scum.In post 3606, Hectic wrote:
1500 + never seen Leafy bus like thatIn post 3605, Reasonably Rational wrote:
FL is locktown? What?In post 3599, Hectic wrote:
Leafy is close to locktownIn post 3583, TrueSoulEnergy wrote:@Hectic
Do you believe the same?
Do you agree with AF on his FL read?
Somni remind me why you're townreading Bitmap?
37/38 is not a good reason
why can't scum be honest about stuff like that?
don't think it's AI personally
-Cerb
-Cerb
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I'm like 30 pages behind. Highlights?
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I'll humor you.
Literally impossible, barring redirection.
Okay so. Alisae makes that post to do what? Need to see the vc at about the time of them posting that, as well as read the preceding couple pages.
I'm assuming we've had confirmation of their claim by the individuals in question yes?
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Hmm. I sort of want everyone who has a private line of communication through which Alisae could have learned something to share, but mason outing is not worth.
-Cerb
Pedit: Elaborate on why that's relevant?
Pedit again: ohhh I see, people shared the hood we made with chemist last night, got it.
Hooded chemist last night, Drixx thought he saw mason signs and wanted to talk to Titus privately. I will not share anything chemist has said anything regarding being a mason, as I assume Titus will kill that lynch if that turns out to be the case.
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Because that's literally the maximum value of a hood in this game? If Drixx and I *know* someone is a mason(by doing something like asking them to have titus say something in thread), then we can safely dump all our real thoughts on everything and be sure that info will always be available to be utilized.In post 4098, OkaPoka wrote:
why is masonhunting with neighborization such a prioIn post 4091, Reasonably Rational wrote:Hmm. I sort of want everyone who has a private line of communication through which Alisae could have learned something to share, but mason outing is not worth.
-Cerb
Pedit: Elaborate on why that's relevant?
Pedit again: ohhh I see, people shared the hood we made with chemist last night, got it.
Hooded chemist last night, Drixx thought he saw mason signs and wanted to talk to Titus privately. I will not share anything chemist has said anything regarding being a mason, as I assume Titus will kill that lynch if that turns out to be the case.
-Cerb
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Okapoka, Titus outs that mason to me 100% of the time because if we're scum, it guarantees we never kill them(at least, not for quite some time), and it lets her test and sort us in an environment where we can't hide behind not wanting to give scum info; if we're town, it means we get to solve the game together and do whatever shit she comes up with to test/sort the rest of the game.
I assure you that I have an infinitely better understanding of how Titus would leverage my slot hooding a mason of hers in a game where she's a stump than you do.
@insomnia: honestly, if that's how you feel about it you should probably do the fearmongering,99% of my early game play is meant to obfuscate my alignment as both town and scum, which means I adhere very closely to what town!me would do as scum, to the point of coaching my teammates regarding what actions taken by them will necessitate attention and pressure on them from me, because town!me would have reacted that way.
Gobble: you've focused irrationally because I don't recall ever seeing a rational reason for focus from you.
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Yep, basically.In post 4139, Chemist1422 wrote:
because it defeats the purpose of them if scum know about them?In post 4135, gobbledygook wrote:Why don’t you and Drixx just post your thoughts in the main thread so Titus can answer them
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