Titus v. Alisae (endgame)

[Reasonably Rational]

But I like Alisae and have never smelled them. Scum!Alisae though, that beezy probably smells heinous.

Also we are ascetic, love you all, and are here to remind you that if you have NU and you do not claim that shit immediately we will ensure you are lynched when that shit comes out.

-Cerb

fuck dude all the pedits.

[Reasonably Rational]

NU=negative utility=an ability that likely decreases the power of the town, frequently referring to things that interfere with results or actions taken, because there are more town than scum, therefore something that messes with abilities is more likely to mess with town's reads and powers than scums...which is the reason why anyone who doesn't claim such things until D3 when somebody tried to cop them and failed is hugely suspicious, because they just wasted our power.

Also: Super fast D1's are *super* anti-town, but so are long fucking days period. Balance yo. D1 is the absolute best day to reflect back on late game to figure ALL the shit out, and if you make it end before people actually take stances and shit you remove all that value.

Titus: I haven't played in like 2 years, of the people in this game who I don't know, whose opinions should I respect even if they don't actually give me a logical reason for their position?

-Cerb

pedit: Titus would never *not* draft me. See: Literally every game we've had where we're town together and have a hood together and end up imploding because we can't trust one another.

[Reasonably Rational]

FL: Should I be like, actually driving hard for your D1 lynch on principle, as I suggested I would do in the signup thread? If not, why not?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Titus: I haven't played in like 2 years, of the people in this game who I don't know, whose opinions should I respect even if they don't actually give me a logical reason for their position?

I don't trust anyone. Not even my hypothetical masons.

Look at motivations, not logic. I expect Ali to fuck with pure logic because that's where my VCA comes from?

No no no, this isn't a trust question, you know me, I'm paranoid as fuck.

This is a "I do not know the players in this game, so I do not know who I should respect the "gut" feelings of." type of question.

Same question really goes out to Ank and FL tbh, but they're not the IC.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Is someone else making a list? Because this is the sort of shit I would normally make a list of, but low effort me is not going to make a list of it.

I highly recommend someone who is motivated make a list and post it for everyone.

Is there a universe where scum!Pine makes that claim? I don't think so? Like, if it's true then way to throw away a bunch of utility(though maybe there's other shit going on that outweighs a buncha ascetic stuff?)...and if it's fake umm...people just kill you.

Town pine=ascetic enabler=game balanced around mandatory mislynch?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Just throwing it out there. Maybe Pine doesn't have to die.

*nods*

That's the point of this question I believe.

Titus, please get to thinking about what % of the game has to be ascetic for taking a mislynch to be the optimal course of action. If we come below that bar, we get a free extra probtown/do not worry about this slot until lylo paranoia.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Just be big brain and play this mountainous

But like if we wanted to play mountainous we would have joined a mountainous game?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Ok just carry me in main thread.

This is interesting. Is there some kind of running gag going on here, or did everyone just walk past this without noticing?

I do have some thoughts about how we should be handling the masonry but I'll hold onto them until they become relevant

This seemed like it was important until later on the thread devolved into a huge mess of people putting out mason signals to obfuscate. Which got me thinking about why that happened when it happened instead of straightaway. Which made me keep this MQ in because ... there had to be a reason the super obfuscation came flying in. YMMV of course, but for those trying to keep track of what is important in all this shit posting.

Also, because I need to die early, I will be TRYHARDING this game. I am caught up. I will remain caught up. I will take at least one scum with me and give Titus (may she reign forever) the tools to eviscerate the rest

This is my first opportunity to be non-scum in one of these games and I will DO IT UP

There's so much to unpack in this. I'm quoting it so I will remember to come back to it later.

M&K and Pine are gonna wish they had both shut up when I inevitably flip n2.

Seems like a cat out of the bag moment, but if it makes you feel better I'm pretty sure the scums probably noticed how you reacted to Cerb claiming our NU. If anything the fact that they called attention to it maybe helps put a light on their motives?

-------------------------

Some thoughts at this juncture:

1.) Y'all can't keep doing this shit in the thread or there's no way I'm going to be able to engage. Took me almost an hour to read through all that bullshit for a few worthwhile nuggets. I really don't have the time for that shit. I'll be heading in to work in about an hour and I can't access the game while I work. Then I have to sleep again. You see where that will go. Please let me play. Stop the Shitposting™!

2.) I feel like I had more thoughts but Pine coming in derailed them.

3.) Titus why the hell didn't you draft us? Like ... you wanted to make it hard or something?

~D

P-Edit: Oh fuck off with that shit Ali.

P-Edit2: LOL at Espeonage thinking they can quick wagon us. Thanks for that laugh. If you're seriously town RN I'm gonna have a hell of a go at you post game. Just get your big boy pants on and be ready for it.

P-Edit3: I found a crumb!

[Reasonably Rational]

Just throwing it out there. Maybe Pine doesn't have to die.

*nods*

That's the point of this question I believe.

Titus, please get to thinking about what % of the game has to be ascetic for taking a mislynch to be the optimal course of action. If we come below that bar, we get a free extra probtown/do not worry about this slot until lylo paranoia.

-Cerb

Request noted, but I think that answer changes based on other setup things I don't know.

Can I encourage you for a little bit of hypothetical on this? We talked about this quite a lot in our slack since he made that post and even just some hypothetical spitballing could help with establishing probabilities I think.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

3.) Titus why the hell didn't you draft us? Like ... you wanted to make it hard or something?

I can't pick the people Ali picks, plus random left over. I expect you to FoS the masons by day 2.

Why on earth would I want to do that? There has been such brilliant obfuscation... why point them back out?

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Headed to work. Please keep the shitposing to a minimum.

[Reasonably Rational]

AF's argument has poor reasoning.

@Spiffeh and @Titus - Care to weigh in on why his reasoning is flawed?

The short version of what's going on here is this: We're town (and irritated Titus didn't draft us, but that's a convo for another day; her irrational confidence that she can make it work "eventually" is gonna lead to some bullshit around about day 3 if we're alive then). The way Amrun came in and reacted to someone else (Espeonage is what my brain is saying but I have to go back and check to be sure) softing a counterclaim to us makes me pretty sure that's town. Scum would have no reason to CC us in that way. More likely scum would claim after the question of what NU was got answered by Cerb and use us for cover. Setting up a conflict with us early in that way just spews town.

Then Pine comes along and claims Ascetic Enabler, and that's key. See ... we have a super powerful role with Ascetic being attached Neg Utility to raise just the dilemma we are in. It's pretty long established (at least for Cerb and I) that you claim your NU up front. The counterclaims and then claim of an Enabler implies that the ascetic is in place for some additional reason other than just to tip the balance a bit with the Neg Utility.

So knowing that we have a very powerful role and also seeing Espeonage claim to have a powerful role and having Pine ALSO imply a very powerful role, and having at least weak reasons to believe they're town, the conclusion I'm arriving at is that there are more Ascetics out there who decided not to claim it. IF there's symmetry and scum have (an) ascetic(s), I expect they are unclaimed ones at this point.


Hopefully we can get Spiffeh to give us more than a couple sentences because I'm super interested in what the thinks of it and specifically if my reasoning makes sense.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

and irritated Titus didn't draft us

I'm irritated you keep saying this. I don't want to play wifom with Ali. Not winding up in my pool =/= not drafted and I would expect you both to pass that logic test.

As for why AF's argument is wrong, bad content is worse than no content.

Explain to me what I'm missing then. Seriously.

We're not on Alisae's team. We're not in your mason group. We significantly discount the idea that you didn't take any masons. I don't see how we end up in this position unless you just didn't want us. Your explanation that we'll clash but move beyond it is frustrating to me because of that one game that had multiple PTs. Space Dandy 2?

Like ... you're unimpeachable for obvious reasons. We kind of thought we would be also.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Oof sorry Titus. I'm an idiot sometimes. The word "draft" made me think that you had a priority order on the people you submitted. But obviously (now that you explained and I carefully read the 2nd post) if it were that way you would know if someone was scum because your preference draft on them failed. Plz disregard earlier derpness.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Oof sorry Titus. I'm an idiot sometimes. The word "draft" made me think that you had a priority order on the people you submitted. But obviously (now that you explained and I carefully read the 2nd post) if it were that way you would know if someone was scum because your preference draft on them failed. Plz disregard earlier derpness.

~D

Apology accepted. You'll still have to accept some side eye based on burden of proficiency though. You claimed you weren't a mason in the public thread after all, despite our years of playing together. You also claimed not to read for detail. Again, that's not you like.

I'll need you to tell me who is scum.

~Titus

I reject BoP. I frequently make (poor?) assumptions in games with mechanics new to me. This is demonstrable pretty much always.

Day one first 24 hours scum reads? From me? This should be hilariously good.

Alisae is totally scum this game. Have you SEEN the shitposting?

Scum in: {TSE, FL, FA, Espe, S&W} <--- they all have at least weak evidence in my thoughts so far. Generally takes more than that plus Cerb poking logic before I'm more certain though, and it's still pretty early his time.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

I think anyone who votes for Pine needs to state whether they're voting because they think it's best to remove him ASAP given the expressed NU, OR if it's because you think he's scum.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Scum in: {TSE, FL, FA, Espe, S&W} <--- they all have at least weak evidence in my thoughts so far. Generally takes more than that plus Cerb poking logic before I'm more certain though, and it's still pretty early his time.

~D

This is a horrible scum list.

FL is not scum. Espe is not scum. And TSE is just a village idiot with a high chance of being town but annoying.

You know, you're going to get zero pushback when you call any reads given by this hydra terrible on D1.

Like, we don't even give reads lists D1. I have no idea wtf Drixx is smoking thinking leaving the game for months suddenly gave him the ability to actually read people on D1.

I think anyone who votes for Pine needs to state whether they're voting because they think it's best to remove him ASAP given the expressed NU, OR if it's because you think he's scum.

-Cerb

What does NU mean?

Negative utility; abilities that hurt town.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Cerb also indicated that there's a second part to his role

he's done this slow rolling as scum before, which is why I referenced that claiming ascetic doesn't necessarily become bad just because it doesn't look town; all that truly matters is that whether he is lynched before being able to execute whatever he has planned for the second part of his role

Drixx, idk, I have less direct experience playing with him and I don't even think I've ever seen him be indignant like that before; I don't think I'd be able to parse that properly by itself with where we're at right now

---

Point of order, and about all I'll do in the way of spending my limited time defending myself at this juncture: I never indicated there was anything more to my role; that was all Drixx. Which sure, given we're a hydra doesn't remove the possibility of such risk-benefit analysis and a larger plan being in the works, but it's just a thing you're saying that's provably wrong about me and I figure you should know it. <3

Now I'm off to breakfast, then class, then the mountains. I'll try to get some work done on the game so there's at least some benefit if you end up continuing down this path during my mostly absence, but no guarantees until like 14 hours from now.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

So the "case", such as it is, boils down to "One RR head is good at mechanics..." (Thanks for the shade by declaring Cerb as the mechanics wiz instead of both of us) followed by "... therefore Ali would have drafted them."

And then you want to argue that pure wifom speculation is the strongest case you think exists at this moment? You clearly haven't actually read the thread. Please GTFO with that weaksauce™.

Baseless speculation combined with fear mongering about our role is pretty fucking terrible, if I'm being honest. Like ... if Mastina was in this game, I would expect that kind of shitty thinking to be employed against our slot because she has an irrational hate on for me/us and basically treats me/us as a policy lynch. But Ank?

~D

P.S. - I generally have Saturdays off but I am covering a shift tonight. Paired with Cerb having a busy day, there won't be much from us for most of the next 14+ hours and not likely from me until closer to 30 hours.

[Reasonably Rational]

After carefully reviewing my notes, rereading, and thinking carefully, I've decided I have no idea what the F chemist's alignment is

I might just save him for tomorrow or hope mech solves him somehow

-S

Oof this is bad. Chemist is the easiest read in the thread right now. Please elaborate on how you came to that conclusion.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Holy shit fl. I just woke up and wasn't going to post anything until I had the chance to like read things and make notes and shit instead of just focusing on what jumps out at me( since apparently I haven't played in long enough that far fewer things are jumping out at me), but I just have to say: I really really want you to finish this draft analysis/scum role filling thing, whatever the hell it is you're doing, but you should absolutely do so AFTER the game is over because even if you're both town and 100% accurate, I do not see this as a line that is likely to be judged as convincing to most players, so it's really just filler.

You do you though man.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Ank, say your definitive scumread and why please. If they are a mason, then I'll protect them. I don't believe any

reasonable

player has a lead on my masons

(no pun intended)

. If a mason does wind up getting wagoned, I'll cancel the wagon forcefully. So please don't attempt to use mason hunting as an excuse. If a slot is a vigilante, be damn sure you're not shooting a mason but beyond that... leave it to me.

I don't like your excuses not to give reads. I'm not a fan. Your rationale could apply to anyone. I get playing some cards close to the chest, so I only asked for one. If you're right, maybe we'll get a counter going.

Titus has jokes!

For real though. I'm picking up what you put down. I'm also facking exhausted from working the extra shift last night. I've got to crash and get a few hours sleep then work tonight. Sorry to be a lurksack early in your game Titus

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

For real though. I'm picking up what you put down. I'm also facking exhausted from working the extra shift last night. I've got to crash and get a few hours sleep then work tonight. Sorry to be a lurksack early in your game Titus

~D

It's ok. I know you. I don't publicly expect much Day 1 from y'all anyway. You know this. It's been that way for years.

I mean ... for what it's worth I think there's a gold mine of info in this day phase but too much of it still needs anchor points to be very useful. And yeah ... it's always been that way. Can't really trust bayesian reasoning without having something to weight probabilities by.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

I like Watson better.

u wanna fite?

-S

ok

Am I the only one that likes Boon's recent posts?

Why do you like them?

They felt genuine and seemed like even though his approach (setup spec) was bad, his intentions didn't seem bad.

What useful intent did you find in those posts? Because I can certainly see plenty of scum intent in all the noise, but not a whole lot of reason to townread the slot for those specific posts.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

AF - not ascetic
FA - has not claimed
gobbles - has not claimed
Fl - has not claimed
TSE - has not claimed

Did we ever get answers from these individuals? Because right now I just see 2 ascetic claims, which seems...low for a game with an ascetic enabler.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Cerb do you imagine fingers snapping like you're at a slam poetry recital every time you make a post

-s

I...I don't? Shit. Should I be doing that? Is that what YOU imagine???

Can someone who isn't the fucking guilty child answer my query, in a fashion that is constructive.

Aaron: Your lack of certainty concerns me. Bah. Fine. I'll go like, ISO them or something.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Hmm so TSE implied not ascetic by asking what ascetic was, gobbles asked to be the last to respond. FA definitely claimed not ascetic. FL definitely did not even say the word ascetic in any of their posts.

S+W: Did we get a definitive response from you? There was that whole commuter then oh right I'm actually ascetic thing, but I do not believe you have definitely stated whether you are or are not ascetic.
FL: Confirm asceticism or the absence thereof for your slot please.
TSE: Please explicitly state that you are or are not ascetic, thanks.

If you did and I missed it, please humor me and let me know you did so, and/or answer the question again.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Gobble: It's about time for you to say yea or nay with regards to your asceticism as well! If FL refusing to share means you will also refuse to share, then just assume he's refused; if not, then just answer the question since whether he responds or not does not matter to you.

Fuck I'm turning into those people I hate who just spam the thread with a bunch of little fucking posts instead of putting it all together into a single thought. ><
-Cerb

pedit: TY SW

[Reasonably Rational]

OH AND SPIFFEH
SPIFFEH MY FRIEND
MY OTHER HEAD ASKED YOU A QUESTION AND YOU NOTED THE QUESTION AND FAILED TO RESPOND TO THE QUESTION.

PLZ RESPOND.

(I legitimately have no idea what Drixx asked you, but he complained to me yesterday morning about you not hopping on our wagon without even bothering to answer his question.)

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

OH AND SPIFFEH
SPIFFEH MY FRIEND
MY OTHER HEAD ASKED YOU A QUESTION AND YOU NOTED THE QUESTION AND FAILED TO RESPOND TO THE QUESTION.

PLZ RESPOND.

(I legitimately have no idea what Drixx asked you, but he complained to me yesterday morning about you

not

hopping on our wagon without even bothering to answer his question.)

-Cerb

*cough*

I added a word. But yeah!

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Gobble, are you ascetic? I like joking around but this needs to be answered.

I will answer this if Pine can explain to me why it’s beneficial to answer this.

Is this question what's holding you up from answering the ascetic question gobble?

Titus: Is there even an actual popular wagon? We're stalling out at like 4 on every push.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Fuck my life.

Okay, can someone explain to me why we're doing essentially nothing about the multiple people who have lied and/or danced around the whole ascetic thing(okay okay I guess we're wagoning S&W without conviction)? That would be gobbles, espe, and S&W. Low on time, but I'll ISO them all respectively shortly, but I"m pretty damn sure there's a buncha "these slots are fucking liars" things in all of their ISO's.

If there's some compelling reason why I shouldn't waste my time researching any of them in particular, please let me know before I do so.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Fuck my life.

Okay, can someone explain to me why we're doing essentially nothing about the multiple people who have lied and/or danced around the whole ascetic thing(okay okay I guess we're wagoning S&W without conviction)? That would be gobbles, espe, and S&W. Low on time, but I'll ISO them all respectively shortly, but I"m pretty damn sure there's a buncha "these slots are fucking liars" things in all of their ISO's.

If there's some compelling reason why I shouldn't waste my time researching any of them in particular, please let me know before I do so.

-Cerb

Why does it matter again..? Pine still hasn’t answered me.

Pine not answering you is irrelevant, you moved the goal posts.

It matters because lying etc is anti-town as fuck, particularly when the information is very fucking helpful when it comes to determining the likelihood of the honesty of someone's claim, and/or the alignment of said claim.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I need to talk with RR today at a minimum. The gunsmith positive also goes against my theory.

Just woke up, then work, but let me know if you have anything in particular you want to hear my thoughts on.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I need to talk with RR today at a minimum. The gunsmith positive also goes against my theory.

Just woke up, then work, but let me know if you have anything in particular you want to hear my thoughts on.

-Cerb

Thoughts on S and W scum being a vote manipulation tactic?

Are you asking me whether or not I think the pushes on S&W came from scum or from town? I *assume* that's what you're asking. I'll take a look at the wagon that formed there.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I need to talk with RR today at a minimum. The gunsmith positive also goes against my theory.

Just woke up, then work, but let me know if you have anything in particular you want to hear my thoughts on.

-Cerb

Thoughts on S and W scum being a vote manipulation tactic?

Are you asking me whether or not I think the pushes on S&W came from scum or from town? I *assume* that's what you're asking. I'll take a look at the wagon that formed there.

-Cerb

I realize my question was badly formed. Do you think S and W is scum and that two scum slots were deliberately wagoned d1 to fuck with my VCA?

Short version: Nonzero but improbable. I'll elaborate after this meeting when I actually get to sit in my office.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

MORNING MEETINGS OVER I CAN NOW TRY TO PLAY WHILE MAKING UP FOR THE FACT THAT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF WORK THIS WEEK I SPENT 95% OF MY TIME IN MEETINGS AND ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING.

Okay, so I've done a quick pass of things up to this point for today.

Insomnia, with regards to this:

Holy shit fl. I just woke up and wasn't going to post anything until I had the chance to like read things and make notes and shit instead of just focusing on what jumps out at me( since apparently I haven't played in long enough that far fewer things are jumping out at me), but I just have to say: I really really want you to finish this draft analysis/scum role filling thing, whatever the hell it is you're doing, but you should absolutely do so AFTER the game is over because even if you're both town and 100% accurate, I do not see this as a line that is likely to be judged as convincing to most players, so it's really just filler.

You do you though man.

-Cerb

Why were you more concerned here with how people perceived the strength of FL's analysis rather than the inability it causes onto other players to read FL in any way, especially for yourself? You didn't really express a town read on him before this, and this post is highly suggesting you town read him.

The way scum and town FL react to that question(and play going forward) are different, at least, my expectations are different. Town FL wants the shit he's saying to actually be usable, so making him aware that the shit he's saying isn't going to actually accomplish anything *should* result in him toning it down. Scum FL cares *less* about how usable it is, though they still care, and is therefore more likely to continue wasting time on that.

Titus: Losing a scum slot on D1 is painful enough, imo, that someone with the awareness and planning skills required to put together that deliberate double bus play would see that as more harmful than the gain from "potentially" confusing your VCA. I don't think I've seen any huge indicators that the players in this game are going to be hanging on your VCA when push comes to shove; if that were the case, maybe I could see it as a single VCA 'cleared' scum slot could carry the game, but it just doesn't seem likely.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Okay so let's have a quick Pine discussion with anyone who is present.

I see people proposing that it's more likely scum|Pine claims ascetic enabler/fake claims it, than keeps it to themselves. At least, that's the only way I can see any reason for people to be pushing Pine as scum.

What does scum!Pine get out of claiming that?

1) They learn who every ascetic is, and therefore which individuals exist who cannot be protected(though you should note that someone can be ascetic+bp or something, so that doesn't guarantee kill success)
2) They get town credit for putting a timer on their own life.

What are the downsides?
1) Timer on their life, and/or the risk that the town will reveal there are 17 ascetics and conclude they must die IMMEDIATELY.


I'm probably missing some things, trying to do this quick.

Okay, so let's say there are <x ascetics, where x is the number of ascetics required for lynchthreshold of town slots to conclude he must die today. He gets to live for today, but will LIKELY die eventually, and town(theoretically) knows where they should and should not be pointing their abilities to avoid confusion.

If there are >x ascetics, he just gets lynched.

I see the upside of the situation as being, at best, neutral; town gets knowledge that scum does as well, thereby narrowing the knowledge gap between the informed and uninformed factions, and his team needs additional lynches to win due to his probable death before endgame.

The downside is, to put it plainly, all bad.

That, in short, is why scum!Pine is *highly* unlikely to make that play, even without considering all the *benefits* that come from being scum vs what you know to be enough ascetics to justify an enabler role. Hell, the game is fucking balanced around your slot making a bunch of people ascetic. If everyone stops being ascetic early, it's very likely that the game balance swings significantly towards the town.

Again. just more reason why that claim does not come out of scum!Pine, barring some mechanical fuckery like an ascetic on his team who has abilities that can only be used when they're not ascetic(which is something I don't even know is a possibility, as I don't typically play games following "Normal" guidelines).

-Cerb

pedit: Nope, haven't properly analyzed FL's play since then; I've read the entire game, but not with the necessary depth and/or ISOing I want. My surface level impression of his posting since is that he's largely stopped pushing that particular draft discussion, though he has touched on it in passing. As he didn't hard defend what he was doing as a valuable/viable scumhunting plan, and didn't continue focusing primarily on that, he's currently in both his scum and town ranges with regards to that particular metric.

This is a question to everyone: Does scum!FL bus MariaR/Dunn? Like yes, I know he COULD do it, because he's a cocky ass who is quite sure he could win the game by himself after sacrificing his entire team, but just in terms of "people he wants to play with on his scum team", does he give up that pleasure as a person? I have literally no idea how he feels about those individuals, so someone fill me in on past interactions that you've noticed.

[Reasonably Rational]

FL, have you read my most recent posts?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

FL, have you read my most recent posts?

-Cerb

Yeah. I didn’t have a comment about it, but I took it in.

Not sure exactly what I think of it as a whole, but seems like solid analysis.

K, noted, so this is FL deciding that he doesn't care about the fact that by bringing up his draft analysis again he's doing the thing that I expected scum!him to do.

Got it.

Not sure what this means, but got it.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

FL, have you read my most recent posts?

-Cerb

Yeah. I didn’t have a comment about it, but I took it in.

Not sure exactly what I think of it as a whole, but seems like solid analysis.

K, noted, so this is FL deciding that he doesn't care about the fact that by bringing up his draft analysis again he's doing the thing that I expected scum!him to do.

Got it.

Not sure what this means, but got it.

-Cerb

You say I don’t care about it? Where is that? Show the facts. I said I didn’t have a comment on it. There’s a difference.

And I’m bringing up more of my draft analysis.

The fact that you have brought up said analysis immediately after a post where I note that I would expect that it's more likely for scum! you to continue to utilize that, and you say you have read said post, means that you do not care about the fact that I expect scum!you to do that; or at least, it means that you are doing it with full awareness of the fact that my slot believes that action is in line with scum!fl over town!fl, and are not bothered enough by that to *not* do so.

Which means either you do not view my read on you as threatening, or you want to get towncred from being "fearless", or...well, there's a lot of shit within your range that explains that decision, honestly.

I'm just noting that this was a conscious choice made by you, and not something that you inadvertently did because you hadn't read the thread.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

For me to be scum here, you’d have to accept I hard bussed ScumJOAT Maki (i feel this is extremely hilarious for reasons I’ll have to wait to bring up).

Note the bold below, FL.

Okay so let's have a quick Pine discussion with anyone who is present.

I see people proposing that it's more likely scum|Pine claims ascetic enabler/fake claims it, than keeps it to themselves. At least, that's the only way I can see any reason for people to be pushing Pine as scum.

What does scum!Pine get out of claiming that?

1) They learn who every ascetic is, and therefore which individuals exist who cannot be protected(though you should note that someone can be ascetic+bp or something, so that doesn't guarantee kill success)
2) They get town credit for putting a timer on their own life.

What are the downsides?
1) Timer on their life, and/or the risk that the town will reveal there are 17 ascetics and conclude they must die IMMEDIATELY.


I'm probably missing some things, trying to do this quick.

Okay, so let's say there are <x ascetics, where x is the number of ascetics required for lynchthreshold of town slots to conclude he must die today. He gets to live for today, but will LIKELY die eventually, and town(theoretically) knows where they should and should not be pointing their abilities to avoid confusion.

If there are >x ascetics, he just gets lynched.

I see the upside of the situation as being, at best, neutral; town gets knowledge that scum does as well, thereby narrowing the knowledge gap between the informed and uninformed factions, and his team needs additional lynches to win due to his probable death before endgame.

The downside is, to put it plainly, all bad.

That, in short, is why scum!Pine is *highly* unlikely to make that play, even without considering all the *benefits* that come from being scum vs what you know to be enough ascetics to justify an enabler role. Hell, the game is fucking balanced around your slot making a bunch of people ascetic. If everyone stops being ascetic early, it's very likely that the game balance swings significantly towards the town.

Again. just more reason why that claim does not come out of scum!Pine, barring some mechanical fuckery like an ascetic on his team who has abilities that can only be used when they're not ascetic(which is something I don't even know is a possibility, as I don't typically play games following "Normal" guidelines).

-Cerb

pedit: Nope, haven't properly analyzed FL's play since then; I've read the entire game, but not with the necessary depth and/or ISOing I want. My surface level impression of his posting since is that he's largely stopped pushing that particular draft discussion, though he has touched on it in passing. As he didn't hard defend what he was doing as a valuable/viable scumhunting plan, and didn't continue focusing primarily on that, he's currently in both his scum and town ranges with regards to that particular metric.

This is a question to everyone: Does scum!FL bus MariaR/Dunn? Like yes, I know he COULD do it, because he's a cocky ass who is quite sure he could win the game by himself after sacrificing his entire team, but just in terms of "people he wants to play with on his scum team", does he give up that pleasure as a person? I have literally no idea how he feels about those individuals, so someone fill me in on past interactions that you've noticed.

I have literally *0* idea about the exact question you're posing, and it's the same question that I want more insight on.

I feel like you know all these things and understand what I'm doing, but are feigning ignorance to...test me? Not sure. Your goals are, as always, opaque.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Thinking my priorities today are {TSE, Bitmap, Espeonage, RR}

I do think one of the ascetics is scum... just don’t know if it’s Espeonage or RR.

What makes you think scum ascetic(s) claimed? You seem to be readily accepting 3 ascetic claims with an enabler and at least two other crumbs of ascetic, but also seem to be excluding the probability that scum would avoid claiming it. This seems bad, particularly because of how quickly Pine outed what he does.

I feel like Espeonage is the most likely to flip scum out of the current people posting

I kinda agree with this. I have to head to work now, but remind me to drop in some more thoughts on Espe tomorrow. It's not as refined as I would like, but I'm working crazy hours and you fuckers spammed the shit out of day one, so it's not airtight or anything. I think it would be good if other people take a look for themselves then see my thoughts. I should be home from work in 11-12 hours.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

I’m not town telling so feel free to rush me

It’s time my scum game got better for a change

You’ll actually have to read my posts now peeps sorry

Aaron / Chemist / RR / Pine

By definition, at least one of your four scum reads is incorrect. Which is that most likely to be, in your opinion?

Also, did you not take a look at what I had to say about Pine? If you want to call Pine scum, engage me on that.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

TrueSoulEnergy
Espeonage
Bitmap
insomnia
Chemist1422
AaronFrost
Ankamius
Reasonably Rational

I am pretty sure these 8 names contain 3 scum which is pretty good odds I think. I really think that TSE has high scum equity. Especially with the BS role he claimed. He would be trying to kill scum as hard as possible knowing he could kill them when they killed him. His play is different from the Masquerade Dance I saw and his play in Mainstream Mafia II where I felt he was town siding.

I think I am most upset about not having a town read on Reasonably Rational

and my reads on Espeonage and AaronFrost weakening.

Elaborate.

I'm unaware of us having any historical connection, so I don't quite see why you should be especially invested in having a town read on our slot.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Ank: I need a list of 5 slots in this game that are 100% town to you, with reasons why. I agree that you're especially strong at identifying town, so go do it.

Insomnia: Simplest version is scum!pine loses a lot of scum power in real-claiming that role, at the risk of dying. I didn't cover fake claiming that role; there *is* a nonzero chance that scum!Pine could fake claim the ascetic enabler after seeing two ascetic claims, but the risk to his life remains real, and the gain is minimal since in that situation I don't see why he'd expect there to be more than 2 ascetics, therefore he just paints a target on himself in exchange for learning that he can assume people aren't ascetic, as he would have done anyways.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

As for Chemist he’s scum because of his first push that was ever serious was on TSE and that’s enough to conclude a scum read on him, he’s been on MU and knows how goofy towns act, this is not town chemist.

I'm going to need a lot more than that to have cause to agree with you on Chemist.

Now, let's see what you had to say about Aaron.

Anything important happen in these last 18 pages, because that'll effect how closely I read it.

We have 3+ ascetics. So, at least skim.

Claim whether you're ascetic as well please.

K so going back to this, I trust Pine's claim which, if true, likely means one of the other two ascetic claims is scum.

Uh, he's not claiming ascetic though, and this is worded like you believe he is claiming ascetic - he's claiming ascetic enabler. If you're not paying close attention to his claim, how can you say you believe it?

I know what he claimed. My wording was off, as it usually is, but basically my thought was that if he's a town ascetic enabler, then one of Amrun/RR (the ascetic claims) is likely scum.

I should probably put my vote somewhere huh

VOTE: RR

I'll just give a sneak peek, fine. Let's go through this post for a bit.

In Aaron's mind, he believes Pine's claim. He sees no reason why scum would fake claim.

Now, that would incentivize him to try and figure in between Amrun and RR, as, from his PoV, there's a likely scum.

The timing at which the vote is placed down is really bad, as well as the way he goes around voting it.

As town, you were just proven with mechanical info that there's a likely scum candidate in between Amrun / RR. That would give you some heat you know, some hype energy as you've narrowed two scum (from your PoV) and that would make you want to sort them and find who the town is and who the scum is.

That vote is more like an RVS than actually sorting in a mechanical lock box, it's like "Meh whatever it's anyone" which doesn't really make sense. Town!Aaron would pay close attention to Amrun and RR and make a call much later on after thorough analysis and questioning.

This is not how a town would approach a situation like this, from their PoV. The vote is weaksauce, it's not based around sorting anyone which he had a lot of incentive for, as he's been granted a mechanical PoE between 2 people, which is like anything a town would ask for, like a holy grail.

Hope it makes some sense. Try and put yourself in Town!Aaron's shoes here. His mentality and actual in thread actions aren't consistent. After this vote is placed he doesn't even try and figure if he made the right choice, he's just posting for the sake of posting.

This is much stronger. This is, unfortunately, going to be a common thing in this game..but I just don't know Aaron. Is town!Aaron an active sorter?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

The Aaron / RR shenanigan going on is actually funny, they're both kind of considering each other but not hard pushing each other at all.

AF's argument has poor reasoning.

@Spiffeh and @Titus - Care to weigh in on why his reasoning is flawed?

This is really weird lol, it's so robotic and why would he want the focus to be directed on this?

Why pick people to prove someone's argument is bad rather than considering whether it's argued by a scum or a town? The underlying motive is to disprove the argument made but not to draw anything from it, which is really weird.

Aaron: Your lack of certainty concerns me. Bah. Fine. I'll go like, ISO them or something.

this won't get followed up on and it's the only time he takes the time to actually call something that's not mechanically related

.

I can see your confusion. The bold was me being concerned about taking his statement regarding the ascetic or not claim of another individual at face value, given that he didn't make the statement with certainty. It had nothing to do with a read.

I think you also don't have any clue how Drixx and I approach the game. The thing you view as "OMG THIS SLOT IS DEFINITELY SCUM BECAUSE THEY SAW A MECHANICAL THING AND DIDN'T PUSH ON IT IN A WAY THAT I FEEL WAS EFFECTIVE/DIDN'T SHOW INVESTMENT" is more of an "Interesting. AF expressed the mechanical belief that one of two slots must be scum, and voted one of them without expressing why they voted that one over the other. I should poke him about why he voted me over Amrun if the two are equally likely to be scum in his opinion. However, his fundamental reasoning is flawed, in that there is no cause to assume that a game with an ascetic enabler has exactly two scum, that exactly one of those two slots is scum, and that scum are definitely within the pool of early claimants. Let's see if someone else is capable enough to correct him, and see how he reacts after being corrected."

Of course, then you have to add in the fact that we're both busy and I'm already spending too much time on this game just reading, and we're happy to let this shit sort itself out.

Alrighty, you have a small view into the way I think about things; this is the last time I'll talk to you, at least, about how to interpret my play, barring pending death. ^^

-Cerb

pedit: RIGHT. Alright Titus, prospects noted, I'm not a huge fan of gobble within that group(as in I've actually looked at their ISO and have suspect posting I'll present in a bit for peer review to make sure I'm not being biased because of their irrational focus on us).

[Reasonably Rational]

OHH. Also need to clarify the mech reasoning used by whoever for saying hectic(or was it oka? I need to fucking review) is conftown for being vanilla, due to the fact that there's no reason why Alisae would put a goon on their team.

@Mods: Did Alisae get to choose the specific roles on their team?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Cerb, I would like to hear your thoughts. I know you're not a big gobble fan. Thoughts on insomnia? Do you think insomnia and AF could be linked? Gobble with either? Without telling me on who, are you close to placing a vote today? How's Drixx doing?

Drixx here. I don't have to work tonight so hopefully Cerb and I can actually talk some when he gets out of his class. I have some observations already waiting for him RE: Insomnia. Page 136 if you want to look. It's a "do you see what I see?" kind of thing.

Like ... I'm a little torn with Insomnia here. It would obviously be better if he wasn't barking up the wrong tree with us, but thems the breaks.

There are a couple slots I am comfortable voting for. Cerb and I really haven't talked nearly as much as we usually do though.

And ... I'm tired. First day off in a couple weeks, so I'm pushing myself to stay awake all day and sleep tonight when usually I crash by 11am.

~D

P.S. - I'd prefer if Chemist were NOT wagoned just now. I'll say more on that later.

[Reasonably Rational]

Cerb, I would like to hear your thoughts. I know you're not a big gobble fan. Thoughts on insomnia? Do you think insomnia and AF could be linked? Gobble with either? Without telling me on who, are you close to placing a vote today? How's Drixx doing?

Drixx here. I don't have to work tonight so hopefully Cerb and I can actually talk some when he gets out of his class. I have some observations already waiting for him RE: Insomnia. Page 136 if you want to look. It's a "do you see what I see?" kind of thing.

Like ... I'm a little torn with Insomnia here. It would obviously be better if he wasn't barking up the wrong tree with us, but thems the breaks.

There are a couple slots I am comfortable voting for. Cerb and I really haven't talked nearly as much as we usually do though.

And ... I'm tired. First day off in a couple weeks, so I'm pushing myself to stay awake all day and sleep tonight when usually I crash by 11am.

~D

P.S. - I'd prefer if Chemist were NOT wagoned just now. I'll say more on that later.

What if I told you I got an annymonus message saying Chemist is Scum.

I'd say you just undid any possible benefit that could have come from sitting on that information; holding guilties is something Drixx and I are *very* experienced with, and you have both failed to do anything to get Chemist's teammates to reveal themselves, and also revealed too early in the day for you to have gathered much data at all.

Re: E's team choices: Got it, for some reason I thought I had seen that E only chose the members of the team, not all the abilities, but I am both crazy and lazy. So yeah, agreed that it is unlikely a VT is scum, UNLESS E's condition's about the setup including town not having any way to rolecop, or E insisted on town having a way to do so, and wanted to lean on the inevitable assumption that E would not have chosen to have a vanilla slot.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Hectic
Do you believe the same?
Do you agree with AF on his FL read?

Leafy is close to locktown

Somni remind me why you're townreading Bitmap?
37/38 is not a good reason
why can't scum be honest about stuff like that?
don't think it's AI personally

FL is locktown? What?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Hectic
Do you believe the same?
Do you agree with AF on his FL read?

Leafy is close to locktown

Somni remind me why you're townreading Bitmap?
37/38 is not a good reason
why can't scum be honest about stuff like that?
don't think it's AI personally

FL is locktown? What?

-Cerb

1500 + never seen Leafy bus like that

1500 is super weak; the no-bussing meta would be stronger if FL were weaker at scum.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Hectic
Do you believe the same?
Do you agree with AF on his FL read?

Leafy is close to locktown

Somni remind me why you're townreading Bitmap?
37/38 is not a good reason
why can't scum be honest about stuff like that?
don't think it's AI personally

FL is locktown? What?

-Cerb

1500 + never seen Leafy bus like that

1500 is super weak; the no-bussing meta would be stronger if FL were weaker at scum.

-Cerb

Like, the dude literally had some shit about how if you ever asked yourself if he would do something as scum, the answer was yes, in his sig, either on this account or boon.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm like 30 pages behind. Highlights?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm like 30 pages behind. Highlights?

-Cerb

Hectic has a gunsmith guilty on you

I'll humor you.
Literally impossible, barring redirection.

Okay so. Alisae makes that post to do what? Need to see the vc at about the time of them posting that, as well as read the preceding couple pages.

I'm assuming we've had confirmation of their claim by the individuals in question yes?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Hmm. I sort of want everyone who has a private line of communication through which Alisae could have learned something to share, but mason outing is not worth.

-Cerb

Pedit: Elaborate on why that's relevant?

Pedit again: ohhh I see, people shared the hood we made with chemist last night, got it.

Hooded chemist last night, Drixx thought he saw mason signs and wanted to talk to Titus privately. I will not share anything chemist has said anything regarding being a mason, as I assume Titus will kill that lynch if that turns out to be the case.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Hmm. I sort of want everyone who has a private line of communication through which Alisae could have learned something to share, but mason outing is not worth.

-Cerb

Pedit: Elaborate on why that's relevant?

Pedit again: ohhh I see, people shared the hood we made with chemist last night, got it.

Hooded chemist last night, Drixx thought he saw mason signs and wanted to talk to Titus privately. I will not share anything chemist has said anything regarding being a mason, as I assume Titus will kill that lynch if that turns out to be the case.

-Cerb

why is masonhunting with neighborization such a prio

Because that's literally the maximum value of a hood in this game? If Drixx and I *know* someone is a mason(by doing something like asking them to have titus say something in thread), then we can safely dump all our real thoughts on everything and be sure that info will always be available to be utilized.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Okapoka, Titus outs that mason to me 100% of the time because if we're scum, it guarantees we never kill them(at least, not for quite some time), and it lets her test and sort us in an environment where we can't hide behind not wanting to give scum info; if we're town, it means we get to solve the game together and do whatever shit she comes up with to test/sort the rest of the game.

I assure you that I have an infinitely better understanding of how Titus would leverage my slot hooding a mason of hers in a game where she's a stump than you do.

@insomnia: honestly, if that's how you feel about it you should probably do the fearmongering,99% of my early game play is meant to obfuscate my alignment as both town and scum, which means I adhere very closely to what town!me would do as scum, to the point of coaching my teammates regarding what actions taken by them will necessitate attention and pressure on them from me, because town!me would have reacted that way.

Gobble: you've focused irrationally because I don't recall ever seeing a rational reason for focus from you.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Why don’t you and Drixx just post your thoughts in the main thread so Titus can answer them

because it defeats the purpose of them if scum know about them?

Yep, basically.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Bitmap
Chemist
RR
MK

All neighborizers.

Hmm


VOTE: Bitmap

Also why did literally no one react to Bitmap saying he was a neighborizer yesterday

Bexause Bitmap is noise, just slightly above TSE in terms of how seriously you should take him. *shrug*

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Haven't even tried, I'm reading what's being posted while I watch OWL.
Not especially feeling like "catching up" when people keep saying things that are addressing me.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Ok the chaos is not good for this player list, we’re doing it wrong.

Everyone take a breather.

The fact that people were hooded doesn’t matter.

What matters is why does Alisae choose to out the information

if we were already wrong on both chemist and aaron

The bold is correct. Considering the second half as part of the fundamental premises messes with the RCA.

What's also relevant is how Alisae knew this, if wrong about both.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Haven't even tried, I'm reading what's being posted while I watch OWL.
Not especially feeling like "catching up" when people keep saying things that are addressing me.

-Cerb

Ok. Top scumread? And now is your chance to talk with Titus

You and Espe, but this is like 2% strength.

I've always been able to talk to Titus this way. THERE IS NO VALUE IN SHARING SECRET SHIT WITH TITUS IN THE MAIN THREAD. How fucking hard is that to understand?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Holy shit. Gobble. Posting in this thread has always been an option. Tht is public. Talking to her PUBLICLY is of no value for what we wanted to accomplish, because it would mean scum know what we're saying, and it would effectively be claiming to them as well, removing the utility we wanted to maximize.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm super busy and haven't had time to actually hunt properly, so best option is to maximize the mech bennies of our role, so that's what we aimed for. *shrug*

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

“TSE is scum because I literally can’t believe how he would try so hard

especially

after a

scum

lynch”

This is a thought that a triggered scum has that TSE is locked onto them and is admitting that they’re scum but they’re pissed at TSE for calling them out without any basis.

If it’s not a slip, how’s it ever a thought that town has

Disagree. I guess I don't know TSE, but they strike me as lazy and terribad, characteristics shared by players who get demoralized and stop trying after they lose a teammate early as scum. Basically, I don't view that line of reasoning as a slip.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

ok so you admit you haven't really played this game cerb

so then i dont get why you are neighborizing to hunt titus connection because your secret thoughts are probably uh not helpful with lack of understanding of game

That's okay Oka, you don't have to get it.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

That’s exactly my interpretation

And all of a sudden i get where the vote is coming from

But if all 3 of them are town than my reads are yucky

You know I was going to add something into my last post about how you seem to be making facts fit your reads, rather than letting the facts define your reads, but felt that maybe that wasn't being fair to you.

This awareness here of your bias against accepting your reads as possibly wrong....tis really town.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Okay, let's take a high level view here.

There's a path that involves lynching through the aaron/chemist/me chain.

Possible results:
If there are no scum in the group,we sacrifice 3!!! Mislynches.
If there is one scum, we trade 2:1. Is that worth?
If there are two scum, it's definitely worth.

So imo the question we must answer is: Is scenario 1 plausible? If not, we should probably lynch in this pool.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Wait. Titus.

How are Gobble and I being hooded again?

I am...ascetic. So...

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Titus: Just wanted to let you know that hooding gobble is not a thing I can do, so if that is indeed the plan you had in mind, it's not a thing that can happen.

Think about the game where we sat on a TMI based case on one person for days, in order to catch a second, and successfully did so.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Titus: Just wanted to let you know that hooding gobble is not a thing I can do, so if that is indeed the plan you had in mind, it's not a thing that can happen.

Why isn’t it something that you can do?

Because of the second half of that post.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Titus: Just wanted to let you know that hooding gobble is not a thing I can do, so if that is indeed the plan you had in mind, it's not a thing that can happen.

Why isn’t it something that you can do?

Because of the second half of that post.

-Cerb

How am I supposed to understand what the second half of the post is referring to, when I am not Titus and did not play in that game?

You're not. If you were, I wouldn't have used an obscure reference to an old game. Titus should hopefully understand *what* I had in mind as a topic of discussion if I was able to talk to her privately at this point at least.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

That, + flipped scum one-shot alien (VERY powerful), suggests that failed night action results can be plausibly scum indicative or at least worth talking about

QED, Pine is maybe more valuable to us alive?

if nothing else, I'd need a rebuttal to simply sacrifice Pine to the Negative Utility gods when I actually think his role might be pro-town in this gamestate?

-S

Run that by me again? I am especially dumb tonight. Pine is like super probtown from my pov, so articulating some way that his NU is actually...not, is very helpful.

One shot alien, alright, that means that yes, said alien could be used on someone who did not claim ascetic, therefore making it a frame vs any night action. I don't see how Pine keeping people as ascetics is a positive effect because of that factor?
-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Don't we have like three different night actions going out tonight at least?

Any of those that have confirmed fails could be soft guilties if Pine is alive?

Unless you think scum also have JKs or RBs after M+K

-S

What claimed night actions do we have that give feedback? And what are the sources of those actions?

Fuck being a shitty player who isn't keeping up with the game is really fucking hard, and it just makes you even shittier, compounding itself. ><

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Got it, and have those individuals all claimed things that give feedback? Or are we assuming that they'll get feedback?

I'm ignoring the problems with the assumption that scum didn't claim ascetic(though you should consider that if scum didn't claim ascetic, then they are probably in the group of people advocating for a pine lynch, as that's one very good way to keep themselves out of the PoE that follows from that line of reasoning, while not risking being caught).

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Got it, and have those individuals all claimed things that give feedback? Or are we assuming that they'll get feedback?

I'm ignoring the problems with the assumption that scum didn't claim ascetic(though you should consider that if scum didn't claim ascetic, then they are probably in the group of people advocating for a pine lynch, as that's one very good way to keep themselves out of the PoE that follows from that line of reasoning, while not risking being caught).

-Cerb

You wanna Claim JOAT by any chance?
If you say no and Claim JOAT later you are confirmed scum.

Titus has my claim. <3

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

oh you did?

right so in that case I think it's better to keep Pine alive

and my personal preference would be to leash watcher shot to you but if bitty would rather go with titus and be on Am that's a choice too I guess

-S

Okay, so leashed watcher/tracker shots=no chance of catching scum making via the actual result, unless you find an ascetic.

So you're proposing that we convert all our shots into publicly known attempts to find an unclaimed ascetic scum.

I believe that's what you're saying?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I want you to look into your FL scum theory.

As for you RR, you need to make motion on your theory tmo even if not perfect. I do understand you're weaker in early days, but I can't hold people forever.

Titus, you're focusing on the wrong part of my reference to that game.

I am explicitly stating that we *do not* have something as mind blowing scumhunting wise as we did in that game, but there are other parallels you should be aware of beyond the moment that got us nominated for a scummy.

Drixx is catching up right now(and I'm still behind).

Is there a summary of claims somewhere that I could look at?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Also RR's gameplay today has been trying to appease everyone while maintaining a VERY neutral view on the game. He essentially played the devil's advocate for this entire phase.

I only play devils advocate, because town is stupid and neglect to account for very basic things.

I do want to correct you on one thing though: I have exactly three positions I've shared.

1) Pine is town.
2) Hectic/Oka(whichever one got checked as vanilla) is likely town.
3) The lynch should be within the [chemist, me, Af] group that Alisae outed.

That probably looks neutral to you, but they're all higher certainty conclusions on an objective basis than essentially anything anyone else has said today, and should be weighted appropriately.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Also RR's gameplay today has been trying to appease everyone while maintaining a VERY neutral view on the game. He essentially played the devil's advocate for this entire phase.

I only play devils advocate, because town is stupid and neglect to account for very basic things.

I do want to correct you on one thing though: I have exactly three positions I've shared.

1) Pine is town.
2) Hectic/Oka(whichever one got checked as vanilla) is likely town.
3) The lynch should be within the [chemist, me, Af] group that Alisae outed.

That probably looks neutral to you, but they're all higher certainty conclusions on an objective basis than

essentially anything anyone else has said today

, and should be weighted appropriately.

-Cerb

Except for those who said things that agreed with those conclusions, of course. ^^ I doubt they put the same rigor into arriving at the conclusions, but they still stumbled onto the right conclusions.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Alisae said Chemist and AF had a hood; that resulted in chemist/AF sharing that Chemist and I had a hood; therefore, the existence of that particular connection of hoods was outed by Alisae.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Alisae said Chemist and AF had a hood; that resulted in chemist/AF sharing that Chemist and I had a hood; therefore, the existence of that particular connection of hoods was outed by Alisae.

-Cerb

The conclusion being that this group contains scum, or scum has a method of discerning hood existence and/or membership; therefore we should be lynching within the group.

This is the conversation that existed like 40 pages ago before Titus came in and decided to veto all those lynches because of her paranoia about Alisaes objective in sharing that information.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Nope, how everyone else votes is far more valuable to me than my vote would be on that wagon.

This is why I don't vote. ^^

-Cerb

pedit: Eh...are you talking to me Titus, with regards to the stellar towncase?

[Reasonably Rational]

RR titus has been asked to budge and she isnt and you might as well follow her for unity

Why would I do that? Titus directed wagon=zero value to her own VCA(which she knows, and is why she's tried to avoid such direction), and it means it's going to happen regardless of what I do, so there's no reason for me to actually join on it. *shrug*

I don't have a towncase for bitmap, he should probably be lynched at some point for repeatedly claiming mafia, but that doesn't change the fact that the optimal line is lynching within the pool of 3 that *probably* contains a leak. I'm naturally biased given that for me it's a pool of 2, so the chances of hitting scum are much higher than rand.

I'm pretty sure this was all covered at great length though, after Titus vetoed the lynches in the first place; I just wanted to correct Insomnias misconceptions about the positions I've shared this game.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

then that's faulty as fuck yeet

Yes.

What *reasonable* explanation is there for scum accurately predicting the membership of a hood? Exactly the case of a combination voyeur+watcher or tracker, yes? If you think it's likely that the scum team targeted specifically whichever member of the chemist/AF hood was necessary to be targeted for such a role to yield useful information, with a single combo role, or spent two actions targeting those two slots with other combinations, then you're venturing into the realm of "improbable".

Occams razor says there's a leak in that set of hoods.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

The only leak points towards you, as Chemist said. He said he told you about him having a hood with Aaron.

He also told Aaron about having a hood with me; we are all equally likely to be scum to outside observers. At least, to rational outside observers.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Like if I'm looking from the outside here, lynching in {me, Chem, RR} is objectively the best move here.

In order for all three of us to be town, that would require scum to have both a tracker AND a follower who both targeted Chem N1, which I suppose is possible, but feels unlikely unless Chem softed or crumbed somewhere.

Or Ali to just be speaking in a hypothetical. I put some heavy thought into it.

Like it's not today but I only want a case that's not slip based. 99.9% of slips are garbage. I've seen two in my entire career.

Sure, Ali could have randomly selected two individuals and declared they were in a hood; given the high density of hoods in this game, such a declaration would have a chance of yielding a positive(not a good chance, likely something like 5% or less, but still a greater chance than in a game with less hoods); it's the fact that chance is so low given she would have to accurate select both halves of a pair that means you have to view that as improbable and not something that should be strongly considered when deciding how likely it is that people are town or scum.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

yeah i didn't read that part you right

I usually am, if I'm paying attention.

Drixx is the one who gets things wrong. ^^

-Cerb

pedit: Why are you only questioning AF for bringing this up? You should be questioning me as well, especially as I'm the one who renewed this discussion. Okapoka, you're the one who was "cleared" by hectic because you're vanilla, right? Or am I misremembering things?(This is another request for some sort of collection o claims and information shared in the thread please and thank you)

[Reasonably Rational]

Like if I'm looking from the outside here, lynching in {me, Chem, RR} is objectively the best move here.

In order for all three of us to be town, that would require scum to have both a tracker AND a follower who both targeted Chem N1, which I suppose is possible, but feels unlikely unless Chem softed or crumbed somewhere.

Or Ali to just be speaking in a hypothetical. I put some heavy thought into it.

Like it's not today but I only want a case that's not slip based. 99.9% of slips are garbage. I've seen two in my entire career.

Are you fine with lynching in the hoods tomorrow then? What's the game plan after we lynch bitmap?

I want to see Bitmap's flip and do proper vote analysis before ruling anything in or out. So it's fair that I am open to it but I want a separate rationale other than hood slips.

Okay so we know bitmap is a neighborizer, and he's claimed other shots.

If he flips scum, we have two scum neighborizers confirmed, with two unknown scum. Does that make it more or less likely that the other neighborizers are scum? If it doesn't have an effect on that probability, then there's no reason to prefer that lynch occur first.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Want to help me lynch you then


Nah i i I cleared hectic

Okay, cool, so the question about why you're distinguishing between my slot and AF's, when we're both talking about essentially the same things, needs to be addressed.

Sure, Ali could have randomly selected two individuals and declared they were in a hood; given the high density of hoods in this game, such a declaration would have a chance of yielding a positive(not a good chance, likely something like 5% or less, but still a greater chance than in a game with less hoods); it's the fact that chance is so low given she would have to accurate select both halves of a pair that means you have to view that as improbable and not something that should be strongly considered when deciding how likely it is that people are town or scum.

-Cerb

Context isn't random. There was a hood discussion at the point before the "slip".

Mmm that's fair. Alright. If you want to, I would welcome being directed towards the posts that occurred prior to that which may have given Ali cause to name specific names over others; otherwise I'll try to get around to looking at it myself.

-Cerb

pedit: Hooding before using any other role is just good play, if you have a strong enough townread on someone to use them as a channel for communicating results and actions(barring some way of being certain that your action will 1) catch scum or 2) save town. That's not a strong argument.

[Reasonably Rational]

I need bitmap, Reasonable and Pine taken care of so I can actually start playing the game

lynching chemist here does nothing for my PoE, I can't see how it does anything for anyone else

Perhaps you could instead just learn how to not be ruled by your confirmation bias and consequently become a better player?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

you are flat our refusing to give any reads or thought processes, the only contribution today has been "let's lynch in hoods"

and you haven't even pushed that at all

not even trying to sort who out of aaron or chemist is more likely scum than not

Because that would require ISOing them and looking at their relationships to the wagon(s) yesterday, which I don't have time for.

@Titus: Really? Bitmap scum makes the fact that I am at 10% or less contribution(as I said I would be pregame) suspicious?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@RR, No. That's not the suspect part at all. I have given you time. Don't see why you're worried if you think he's town. You ought to know my primary worry. My secondary worry is your deflection away from Bitmap, but that only applies if he is scum.

I don't think he's town in particular?

I think he's...oh...got about a 3/16(those are the remaining numbers in this game, right), chance of being scum. That is, I've put 0 effort into resolving him, which means *likely* 1/2 is better odds than what he represents to me.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

you are flat our refusing to give any reads or thought processes, the only contribution today has been "let's lynch in hoods"

and you haven't even pushed that at all

not even trying to sort who out of aaron or chemist is more likely scum than not

Because that would require ISOing them and looking at their relationships to the wagon(s) yesterday, which I don't have time for.

@Titus: Really? Bitmap scum makes the fact that I am at 10% or less contribution(as I said I would be pregame) suspicious?

-Cerb

I would like you to explain a couple of things.

Why did you think Chemist was a mason?

I honestly have no idea, Drixx said he felt that Chemists early D1 posting spewed him as a mason, and we never really discussed it, he just wanted to hood him.

Who did you think Chemist is in a masonry with?

See above

Even under that working assumption, why Titus would select Chemist?

See above

Why do you think your other JOAT abilities need Titus’s special consideration?

See my question to Titus below

Titus, please tell me you understand what I was saying with regards to the game in the past, and that you therefore understand why I would want to specifically work with you to maximize value in the usage of whatever other abilities I may have.

-Cerb

pedit: That's fair Insomnia! If you are legitimately going to scumread me if both my town and scum meta's are very similar, then yes, you should default to scumreading me.

[Reasonably Rational]

Titus, please tell me you understand what I was saying with regards to the game in the past, and that you therefore understand why I would want to specifically work with you to maximize value in the usage of whatever other abilities I may have.

Honestly, I kinda recall the game but it's been years.

Ugh.

Understood.

*sigh*

Okay, well then I don't know how else to communicate this to you without telling the entire thread, so never mind I guess.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Post 5779 has to be some of the worst reasoning in the world to use their only shot at a neighborize to try to talk to Titus.

I don’t believe that their primary intention is to neighborize a mason to talk to Titus about secret stuff and then they apparently barely talk about who the mason is. Smells like manure.

If they had not acted at all, it would be more credible than what they are now claiming. Cerb, please ping Drixx to have him answer the questions you cannot answer.

I mean, if I could I would go grab our discord and show it to you, but basically Drixx said "Chemist is a mason." I said "wut? I don't see it" Then we didn't talk and it was deadline. So yeah.

I assure you, if I was lying about Drixx thinking Chemist was a mason, I would have much better reasoning than this.

I'm a very good liar.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Cerb and particularly Drixx would feel offended if no random element existed. Our record when we have a hood is stellar. That I buy. I struggle with the amount of oops though.

There's a reason I keep asking for a summary of all the claims and known shit in this game.

Probably the first time I simply haven't read the entire game, and have done literally 0 deliberative analysis on what I've read.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

2 oops both from me on day one when the game was being spammed to hell. That's a weaksauce™ case Titus.

The reality of this game is that I work nights now, and Cerb is busier than he used to be. We have a very small overlap of time where both of us are awake and available. Our communication together is like 1/1000th of what you would expect. I don't think we can possibly get out of the PoE at this point, and I honestly don't care because this game looks to be mostly solved. Like ... Cerb plans to spend some time with me before I go to work today and obviously we have some things we'll say, but this would be a monumental colossal case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory here for us to lose. Kinda feeling apathetic a little.

I know that's not really what you want to hear Titus.

~D

P-Edit: Wow GG with the slip.

[Reasonably Rational]

If town has not rolecopped Pine yet, they deserve to lose.

They?

Town collectively

P-Edit: Wow GG with the slip.

Learn to English.

You used the 3rd person. The 3rd person doesn't include the 1st person (that is: the person speaking/writing). If you were including yourself in that group, you would have used the word "we". And you will never have any idea how amusing it is that you told me to "Learn to English".

~D

P.S. - That looks like an actual slip. When you're typing fast and slinging one liners is when you're most likely to forget to adjust things like pronouns. You just say what your brain knows is true. Telling a linguist to "Learn to English" might feel like a good "comeback" but it doesn't change that fact that your brain

excluded

you from the town.

[Reasonably Rational]

Drixx, you need to explain why you so heavily thought Chemist was a mason.

I don't have to explain anything to you. You just outed yourself as scum. I already had some not so good feels towards you considering you demanded Cerb summon me to the thread but didn't make any effort to keep people from fast ending the day before I caught up reading the thread. That's the action of someone trying to do a frame job ... not someone who actually wants answers.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Have fun pushing that as a slip. You have all this time to post now and then when actually confronted you don’t provide anything as a basis for your prior actions

Yeah ummm... you're the one who expressed a thought where you clearly excluded yourself from the town. It's not my fault you didn't catch yourself. It sucks when you get yourself caught by something that simple, but

you are the one who posted to the game that you are separate from town

.

As for time ... I just got home from work and mercifully the game isn't going anywhere near the pace it was in the first couple days. When I got home from work Tuesday morning, there were 64 pages to read. Today there were 5.

But you know ... keep on trying to distract from your slip. It will totes save you.

You’re literally so bad if you think that’s a slip.

Feel free to explain to me the thought process that resulted in you making an extremely short post wherein you referred to town in a way that clearly excluded yourself. I'm all "ears".

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

That kind of slip isn't like guaranteed to be a proper "slip" always. It depends heavily on how trained in rhetoric the person typing the post is.

The

reaction

to being pushed on it is the point. GGs reaction is bad and then he disappeared. That's way more telling than a grammatical slip by itself.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Gobbles doesn't need saving btw but interesting Hectic jumped on. Gobbles was cleared by Amrun.

And Amrun was cleared by whom? I really didn't like how GG reacted to me poking him.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Gobbles doesn't need saving btw but interesting Hectic jumped on. Gobbles was cleared by Amrun.

And Amrun was cleared by whom? I really didn't like how GG reacted to me poking him.

~D

Me. With my disloyal vig shot.

Setting aside the

obvious

for a moment: the amount of claimed investigative power (not counting what we have which is intentionally unclaimed for the moment) raises the question: what did the mods give the scum in exchange? Like ... my assumptions (which you shouldn't confirm or deny) lead me to believe that you have 2 masons, which is already roughly equivalent to a hard investigative role. Then there's at least 3 more claimed.

So yeah ... I'm gonna go ahead and assume that I should question things, especially when there's some reason to suspect someone. After all ... I know that we aren't the answer you're looking for and the proposed solves don't make sense. That suggests an input problem.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Chemist's early posting seemed to have some motive that made him plausible as a mason. Then later on I made the comment that he should be the easiest read in the game, and his response to THAT reinforced the assumption. It's not exactly complicated and you cannot simultaneously walk around with a snobbish "I'm smarter than you" attitude and then claim you don't see it. Pick one or the other and stick with it.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Drixx, question all you want to aside from Gobble and Amrun are conftown. I want to see that.

I'm heading to sleep because I work tonight. The plan is for Cerb and I to talk probably voice to voice for efficiency sake this evening before I head to work. Expect some stuff tonight and/or tomorrow morning, depending on what he has and what he thinks of the notes I've got. I may also post on breaks at work, depending. It's a pain in the butt to leave the building to use my phone, but I do it sometimes.

You got what you got so far because I just happened to be here reading the thread and making a post when something caught my attention and I decided to see if I could press GG for a reaction.

I think I’m too in the weeds with RR and confbiasing on them. I should not have said cluckoff. I apologize. I do want you to answer why you targeted the first night as opposed to waiting or using your other abilities.

I appreciate the apology. I'm big on attack play, not people so that means quite a lot to me.

Simply put: I was cocky that Chemist was a mason and the rest of our role wasn't something either of us felt we wanted to use on night one. Both Cerb and I reason our way through mafia games, and the main drawback to our approach is that we're terribad early but we will catch things and take note of things and see connections others never do as time goes on. There's a reason Titus wasn't really bothered about us at all before today despite the fact that we've been way less active than usual.

Also we have something interesting that we were hoping to leverage if we could get a message to Titus some other place than in the thread. Cerb hinted at it earlier and I'm not sure if Titus ended up figuring it out or not. There's no real equity to saying more at the moment, and I think Titus will agree if she figured it out, and may agree on principle even if she didn't.


-----------------


Thought of the moment: TSE has been super annoying with his theory of the game, and I am pretty certain that he's wrong. That said: he did spot a pattern. My question is whether he has TMI and is trying to manipulate what he KNOWS to be the case (if scum), or if he just didn't follow through on what he noticed. I have never played with him before, to my knowledge, and I still haven't seen enough one way or the other to decide whether I think he would just stop at the spot he's been stuck or if he should have continued reasoning and realized what his observations actually probably should indicate in his mind as far as setup goes.

And I'm also trying to avoid putting the BoP on him to expect him to see what we see. There's a reason some VERY good players in this game rate Cerb/Me as among the best at that area of the game. We are.

So ... without giving it all away ... do you realize why TSE being stuck on the theory of game he keeps pushing is problematic? What do you make of it, assuming you see it?


It so happens there IS another thing to add to the pile as far as TSE goes though. He was awfully willing to step back and stop posting when someone asked him to do that today. That doesn't at all fit with his behavior on day one and day two. That pings me a bit. I'm also still trying to figure out the dramatic shift day one vs. day two.

I'm also crazy tired so apologies if this isn't the most coherent post. I think you can pick up on the underlying thinking though.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

point is scum had to have blocked minimum two slots in one night

so unless town wants to claim a block or a vig kill

Wait where did that come from? Somni was the only death last night, right? Were there extra kills that people have claimed?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Okay so I've skimmed, and I don't see how we're concluding that people have been alienized/how they know they've been.

Some people got no results on things, yes? Which can come from either the origin or the destination being interfered with(via enemy action or unclaimed modifiers); that is excluding the possibility that individuals are lying about whether or not they attempted actions.

How are we deciding the cause of these things?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Whoa. Ank claimed shooting at Insomnia? So there *is* a missing kill if Ank is town?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Whoa. Ank claimed shooting at Insomnia? So there *is* a missing kill if Ank is town?

-Cerb

No.

Okay so where did gobble get the idea that you had vigged insomnia from?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

same applies to RR wanting to talk to AF

Nope, we haven't even really talked to chemist. Wanted to have a conversation about fl and gobble, then we got distracted by rl and have completely ignored the hood!

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Don’t be depressed Titus. I’m heading home. Want to play a game or something?

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Don’t be depressed Titus. I’m heading home. Want to play a game or something?

~D

I have to go to work. Flattered though.

Depression is a chemical imbalance or situational. Either way, nothing you can do to fix it.

Sometimes doing something else to divert helps. I’ll sleep and be around and available later this afternoon.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Please don’t flash the day. I’ve got some notes and iso thoughts I want to post. I’m not sure some of the things being taken at face value are very sound. I’ve got a feeling someone is seriously deep cover right now. I had a similar feeling in my game at the MU qualifier game a few months back, and I didn’t act on it because I don’t usually play by “feel” and got super burned. Don’t want to make that mistake again.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

how is Espeonage not scummier for getting nothing 2 nights in a row?
eagerly awaiting what his God role yielded last night

Because of the fact Pine failed on Espy too.

No rationale for either. Simplest explanation is E was aliened.

Titus, Espe claimed non-ascetic during our D1 claims, and then changed that to ascetic and PR later on.

When did Pine fail on Espe?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

so the reason why i find it sus that Espeonage gets no results 2 nights in a row is that if he's actually a God role, he should only ever claim it day 1 if the God role can't be roleblocked/Aliened in some way, otherwise, why out yourself and effectively make yourself useless in the case of a roleblocker?

Why not? If scum fear they can't kill him, then they roleblock him from here to eternity if they can. The puppy in Espy's game was definitely unkillable for scum. If they found that game night 1 they'd be aware of it.

They should be out of blocks if I am correct. Despite TSE being wrong on Chemist, I still put stock in his all joats theory.

why would they fear they can't kill him?
was there reason to believe Espeonage was tough to nightkill?

the point i'm making though is why does town!Espeonage out himself as a powerful role worth roleblocking on day 1?

with no reasonable provocation as far as i can remember

There are possible reasons, but I'd like to see Espe's answer to this.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

how is Espeonage not scummier for getting nothing 2 nights in a row?
eagerly awaiting what his God role yielded last night

Because of the fact Pine failed on Espy too.

No rationale for either. Simplest explanation is E was aliened.

Titus, Espe claimed non-ascetic during our D1 claims, and then changed that to ascetic and PR later on.

When did Pine fail on Espe?

-Cerb

Pine, see bolded.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Thanks Titus.

This is where Espe claimed to be ascetic.

Gonna take a risk here bc I feel like I have done enough work to potentially be a target anyway.

I'm also Ascetic and a PR.

I was going to ask Pine why he targeted Espe after seeing an ascetic claim from them, but apparently he also targeted Amrun, so clearly he was specifically targeting claimed ascetics for some reason; whatever that reason is can wait for whatever time we decide mass claiming is appropriate.

Do we know who Espe targeted on N2 that resulted in a failure of some sort?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Ok, stepping out here. Vetoing Espy if he has a result. This is a scum driven push because they are out of blocks.

Doubly so because,

despite the agreement failure is a soft guilty

, no one followed on to SR.

Failure of what?
-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Ok, stepping out here. Vetoing Espy if he has a result. This is a scum driven push because they are out of blocks.

Doubly so because,

despite the agreement failure is a soft guilty

, no one followed on to SR.

Failure of what?
-Cerb

Chemist voyeur. We know he was town. He targeted SW.

Given Espy was almost certainly aliened, scum could not likely block both.

Espe ascetic=can't be alien'd, and the actions on Espe would have naturally failed as well; chemist as the alien target becomes a possibility then I think?

Doesn't explain Espe's claimed action failure though.

Espe, can you elaborate on the form your results came in? Did you get information that was not useful, or no information? Did you expect to receive a mod message telling you...something?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Espe ascetic=can't be alien'd, and the actions on Espe would have naturally failed as well; chemist as the alien target becomes a possibility then I think?

Doesn't explain Espe's claimed action failure though.

^this

you're putting too much stock in that meaning Espe is town, Titus
and scum!Espe can just fake having his action fail

So scum Espy claims a super powerful role and calls attention to his failures on Night 1 and Night 2? His claim was made under zero pressure.

Occam's Razor says he was blocked both nights.

Except he literally said he was ascetic, and therefore could not have been blocked any nights....

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

(Your point about the scum motivation for making that claim etc is SUPER valid though. I do just want us to establish that Espe as ascetic could not have been alien'd, and therefore that particular aspect of your theory does not work.)

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Honestly, there's like 99% chance AF is just scum here, right? If for no other reason than the hood leakage.

Can someone who isn't Titus provide me with a plausible reason why it isn't necessary that scum lies within {me, AF}, for you?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Consensus is RR is not playing a scum game.

Walk me thru this?
-S

Being bad at mafia isn't in my scum range. *shrug*

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'd do RR first personally but I wouldn't hard breaks on Aaron

-S

Consensus is RR is not playing a scum game.

I tend to feel if Ank is clear RR likely is too.

So that means, AF is the better play today.

Can you vote there?

Not sure I get this parity.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Honestly, there's like 99% chance AF is just scum here, right? If for no other reason than the hood leakage.

Can someone who isn't Titus provide me with a plausible reason why it isn't necessary that scum lies within {me, AF}, for you?

-Cerb

1-shot combined tracker/follower?

*shrug* it's "possible"

-S

1 shot combined tracker/follower that happened to target Chemist on N1 in spite of the "omg I'm super stronk" claim from Espe, as well as a similar "strong" PR claim from Pine? I think that scenario requires Espe and/or Pine scum for me to buy it.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

...You're telling me that scum don't want to win this game?

2 scum pr flips, ali doing weird gambits, massive townblock, masons

fuck yeah I think there's real chance scum have already written this off as a loss, which would match with Cerb being like "I'm gonna focus on this

obvious

1v1 with Aaron and ignore the rest of the game mmkay"

I mean that's not like super scummy he could do as town too but thinking people are town because they have 0 wim in a town stomp seems dumb

-S

FTFY.

Re: Bitmap - With the information available, Bitmap was far less likely to flip scum than one of [AF,Chemist] from my pov, and far less likely than one of [Af, Chemist, myself] from the pov of anyone else(at least, anyone else who didn't find it probable that a number of other factors(which we have seen no evidence of) happened to perfectly occur.

Hell, I'll even go a bit further: If Chemist was alien'd, why do we think that happened, if not to ensure that Chemist could not be cleared by actions targeting them, and therefore pushing the timeline further out before the walls would close in on AF? I'm ascetic, so they didn't have to worry about me being cleared. Doing so let scum maximize the chance that they could get 2 mislynches out of that PoE before we found the scum in it.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

What's the wagon at? Was there anyone else who had anything significant that we needed to resolve today?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

VC yo, VC.

VOTE: AaronFrost

Directly countering momentum in an act of naked survivalism. *shrug*
-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

VC yo, VC.

VOTE: AaronFrost

Directly countering momentum in an act of naked survivalism. *shrug*
-Cerb

Also I think that's L-2.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

i thought you thought that aaronfrost is basically confscum

He is, but I see infinite value in letting confscum sit around talking while trying to preserve their life, especially when Titus is grilling them. Unfortunately, when I get to L-2 I sorta have to vote to ensure that lynch goes through instead of giving him the opportunity to live another day, no matter how much value I find there to be in whatever he might have to say.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

We can guarantee another result. Best not to say more than that. You should have gone and looked because Cerb gave you enough info to realize what we do. It would be a little better to have it be a bit less explicit but such is life.

AF plus someone who doesn't have a lot of scum equity is the solve, I think. {S&W, FL, Pine, TSE} seem like the most likely places. Gun to my head I'd say TSE mostly because of the reasons I stated before. His "theory" of the game smells, especially considering when it was presented and what happened just prior.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Also ... doesn't the fact that Espy is completely outed negate any ability to get info from the role? I feel like that would be wasted action economy?

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Oka, fyi, I'm a guy who sits on a hard guilty for *at least* 5 RL days, ensures everyone has come and talked about shit, gently prodded the entire thread for reads etc, pushed a soft wagon on a null read, and only THEN do I actually share my hard guilty to end the day., after maximizing the extracted value.

-Cerb

pedit: Titus - Yeah, that's fair. Last scum pool depends entirely on whether or not e actually indicated their knowledge of Espe's role in any way prior to their claim. Hmm. Okay. So I'm actually thinking about this, and kinda running into some contradictory conclusions.

My first thought was that if e had hinted about the role previously, then the only reason to bring that up is to make people doubt the pool of clears, right? That also increases the scum equity of Espeonage. Mmm. Okay.

"Clears"
gobbledygook
Ankamius
OkaPoka

Weaker town evidence due to connection to "clears"
Hectic

So I see reasonable cause for scum equity in Pine and Espe, less so in S&W. I believe mechanically we should be removing Espe to create 3 "real" clears(assuming we have evidence of previous successful actions on these three slots, I'll need to review).

I think our best chance is to remove TSE, and assuming he flips town and is therefore not lying about being vengeful, he shoots either Pine or Espe; Pine shot is only necessary if we do not have evidence of previous successful actions on ank/oka/gobble, otherwise Espe shot makes more sense as that flip either ends the game or gives us 3 highly probtown. That leaves us with Pine, FL, and S&W, with S&W and FL tied for scum equity, and Pine as still improbable for the D1 claim.
TrueSoulEnergy>Espeonage/Pine>S&W/FL>Pine

This is all assuming that I'm right and AF flips scum of course. If he does not, shit get's messy.

I need to talk to Drixx to see if it's reasonable to locktown Espe; I don't think it is, but maybe he see's something I don't.

ppedit: Oh he's back, must bug.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

(And yes, I do see the contradiction between thinking Pine both has scum equity and wouldn't make the claim he did on D1 as town; that's the problem.)

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Oka, you can put me at L-1, and AF is already on my wagon.

There's *0* value in me claiming now, especially when I already effectively claimed to Titus if she bothers actually looking.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

VC yo, VC.

VOTE: AaronFrost

Directly countering momentum in an act of naked survivalism. *shrug*
-Cerb

i thought you thought that aaronfrost is basically confscum

He is, but I see infinite value in letting confscum sit around talking while trying to preserve their life, especially when Titus is grilling them. Unfortunately, when I get to L-2 I sorta have to vote to ensure that lynch goes through instead of giving him the opportunity to live another day, no matter how much value I find there to be in whatever he might have to say.

-Cerb

you mentioned you wait a few irl days before declaring a hard guilty which is fair enough
but isn't waiting a full game day before trying to lynch someone you think is very likely scum nonoptimal?
you sacrifice a potential mislynch + nightkill to leave him around another day

That is indeed the case, though I have done so on one notable occasion, which let me catch two scum for the price of one.

I'm not sure of the relevance of that comment to the current situation, however; I'm not proposing that we leave AF alive, I just didn't want to rush his lynch while he was around and talking.

-Cerb

pedit: Our role does not return any results. That is about as much information as makes sense to give.

[Reasonably Rational]

I've been given permission by Drixx to claim, but like, I kinda don't want to cuz fuck OkaPoka trying to strongarm me into doing it.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

VOTE: AaronFrost

Ugh you people suck for not letting this percolate more

L-1

My dude got permission from his hydra partner to claim and then yeeted himself out of thread lmfao

Yuuuup.

I don't do anti-town things, and claiming without cause is anti-town. *shrug*

And no, a request from an IC is not cause.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Have we just suddenly decided we're not comfortable taking the fucking confscum lynch and would instead just kinda go for something else based on whatever the hell it was FL was posting?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Fyi, Okapoka, I am outright stating that I will not be claiming today, so you can go ahead and skip the whole intent thing to try to get me to claim, unless you manage to catch Drixx and he does it for me.

<3

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

L-1. I think? Going to sleep now.

Anything my opinion is desired on when I wake up, assuming I'm still alive then?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Assuming this insanity results in our lunch, you’ll want to look very closely at OkaPoka and S&W. Oka has been pushing hard to make everyone claim today, despite being told repeatedly that we shouldn’t and Titus knows why. There’s not any town motive there but I can see scum being scared by our refusal to claim along with the fact that a pretty vague reference was enough for a Titus to realize ... because it’s strong and we’ve demonstrated the ability to leverage it in the past.

S&W isn’t developing an honest read on us. He’s starting with a destination in mind and then looking for anything he can manipulate to support it. If my post was really such blatant fearmongering, for example, he would have said so when I made it. It clearly didn’t come across that way when I made it because nobody commented. Scum have to approach getting mislynches exactly in the way S&W is behaving right now.

I wouldn’t discount TSE as scum here either. Bizarre tonal shifts and behavior shifts combined with pushing two theories which were never reasonable at all are bad looks from him. The pushes look a lot like setting up mislynch chains, especially now that we have a chemist flip plus we know we flip green AND we have pretty solid reasons to believe another JOAT style role is town as well.


The common thread with all three slots is very obvious scum motive for their approach. For S&W and TSE there is a pretty clear view of they are making up a story since they can’t legit game solve due to being informed, and you can see the fingerprints of that pretty clear if you step back and see the forest.

~D

I gotta go back inside for work.

[Reasonably Rational]

RR, you know what you must do, and if you do not, it is a scumclaim

Agreed. Gobble needs one more investigation.

This is me pretending I don't know what you mean, so scum are confused about what you're implying.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Titus was correct. Thought I quoted the post. Either we were targeted or FL was targeted. We assumed scum would shoot off Gobble from the posts late yesterday so we BGd FL and we are also 1-shot bp.

TSE, Espe, Pune, Hectic and Ank as paranoia is my thought atm. I’ve got crazy overtime and have to head back in. I’ll check in on my lunch in a few hours.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

I’m so confused Titus. You literally know the game Cerb crumbed but are surprised.

@Oka nothing remains unclaimed. All our stuffs.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

can you in one cohesive post go through everything in your role?

afaik you are an ascetic one shot bp joat with only two shots? neighborizer and bg

Because 1-shot bop totes isn’t a shot? Stop being silly.

~D

Back to work. Break is too short

[Reasonably Rational]

Titus: The relevant parts of what I was talking about were the 1) having a hood, 2) having a bp, and 3) having a bodyguard.

So yeah. The point was sharing the *utility* with you, because that's what we would have shared with you if we had managed to get a hood that could connect us to you, so we could run a gambit and/or otherwise try to maximize the benefit of our role.

And no, it's not an activated BP.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

so you only have two shots...

One shot passive BP isn't a shot? Interesting interpretation.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Feel free to look up our role in the first Steven Universe Mafia game; notably, we do not have an IC, we are ascetic while that role was not, and we do not have a way of recharging our protective suite(because Varsoon makes very strong non-normal games and roles).

Titus, TSE: Though I get the reasoning and would support this line if our death resulted in a guaranteed win, I don't think math says it does so? You should probably also consider why exactly scum!us 1) claims to have performed a protective action that didn't align with your obvious desires, and 2)happens to also be an action on someone that gives the town an additional probtown mechanical clear on a slot they were highly likely to kill today.

Heading to bed.
-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

*sigh*

Okay.

So tse clearly shot at me, unless lying as town for some reason, like he was lying about being a babysitter. I'm not dead, so my bp was not removed on the night I protected FL.

So scum skipped a kill? Did someone fail to claim a block they performed, or any other protection?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Town wasn't terrible, so good job. Scum was terrible. <3

Actually, you guys did really well until D3, when things started to risk falling apart, but the recovery came through. I'll have more thought later, but we kinda threw, even ignoring the inability of this slot to find time to play the game.

Drixx and I legitimately exchanged at most 20 sentences about the game. :p

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Don't have much to add. We weren't really prepared for the explosion of posts this game, and I think once we had M&K slot go down without even attempting to play and then Bitmap go down (predictable but definitely still sucked), neither of us were looking to sacrifice sleep (in my case) or (no idea what in Cerb's case) so there's that. I was pretty hard on people in the discord and if it had been up to me it wouldn't have been released simply because I don't generally say such unkind things about people who haven't good and well deserved it.

I think if we had gotten a different shake out of day five we maybe could have landed in a last day scenario. That maybe would have cost town this game because neither Cerb nor I will gloat as scum before the game is fully ended, and even then we usually aren't big on gloating. If Titus was planning to hold out that power and use it on someone slipping before official game over, wouldn't have gotten us (unless used it as paranoia).

I was very legitimately surprised to end up scum instead of mason in this one. Don't think I even considered that we'd be scum, let alone need to try and carry. We were planning long term "no way they ..." play (inasumuch as we planned much with so little communication) from the start, and getting day 1/2 railed so hard with day 3 almost being a scum lynch also really magnified our poor position to play from.

As anyone who reads the discord will see, Alisae wanted to throw the towel in awhile ago. I didn't want to give up though.

Krazy gets the asshole award of the game for coming into the scum discord and dunking with his nuts in our face, which is the first way I knew the game was over when I woke up this evening.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Don't have much to add. We weren't really prepared for the explosion of posts this game, and I think once we had M&K slot go down without even attempting to play and then Bitmap go down (predictable but definitely still sucked), neither of us were looking to sacrifice sleep (in my case) or (no idea what in Cerb's case) so there's that. I was pretty hard on people in the discord and if it had been up to me it wouldn't have been released simply because I don't generally say such unkind things about people who haven't good and well deserved it.

I think if we had gotten a different shake out of day five we maybe could have landed in a last day scenario. That maybe would have cost town this game because neither Cerb nor I will gloat as scum before the game is fully ended, and even then we usually aren't big on gloating. If Titus was planning to hold out that power and use it on someone slipping before official game over, wouldn't have gotten us (unless used it as paranoia).

I was very legitimately surprised to end up scum instead of mason in this one. Don't think I even considered that we'd be scum, let alone need to try and carry. We were planning long term "no way they ..." play (inasumuch as we planned much with so little communication) from the start, and getting day 1/2 railed so hard with day 3 almost being a scum lynch also really magnified our poor position to play from.

As anyone who reads the discord will see, Alisae wanted to throw the towel in awhile ago. I didn't want to give up though.

Krazy gets the asshole award of the game for coming into the scum discord and

dunking with his nuts in our face

, which is the first way I knew the game was over when I woke up this evening.

~D

And how did Bolded make you feel?

See... with Krazy I was kidding and having a laugh. I deleted the rest of what I was gonna say because I would have eaten a temp ban for it.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Drixx and I didn't. I mean, at least not by our standards.

So, setup complaint: the vanila cop/rolecop effects were a bit much, as all vts were logically clears. Like, the mechanically probtown pool was able to grow faster than it probably should have been able to? Granted, there was the chance of getting fake cleared by espe or one of the watcher shots late game, but idk, just seemed like the pool of possible mislynches due to mechanics was too small since D2, in light of a game with 2 masons and a stump controlled vig. *shrug*

Balance is hard though, and with the ascetics and enabler and possible clear etc etc...idk.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I’d love to hydra stump me and Cerb Vs. Titus and Mathblade lol.

One of the only takeaways from this game for me is to trust my instincts more. Titus and Math scum vs. us town would be fantastic

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

The vanillas became IC's because there were three scum lynches AND RR blocked Chemist.

So it only took one unpredictable bad action by scum to make multiple mechanical clears and that wasn’t
Predictable for scum. Take the feedback for what it’s worth; it’s not an attack it it’s worse than useless for you to just reject it out of hand.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Feel free to talk to me privately when you can separate your ego from the conversation. A Vanilla Cop is meant to be a weaker investigative than a proper cop so in design you have to consider how the game could break.

I want to be clear: this game was lost because the scum team mostly didn’t play and the town team used the advantage of knowing they could trust other town slots to avoid falling apart. Like... it’s a very good demonstration of what a small group confirmed to one another can do. The town was all over the place most days but was consistent in wrangling past misplays and that was down to good town play.

That doesn’t change the fact that there’s a defect in the setup. It’s not really a factor here but it’s good to evaluate honestly for future setups.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

That last post reads way harsher than I meant it, SS. Love ya and appreciate ya. If I thought the setup had unfairly cost us, I would say so.
This is more an observation of a possible defect. Having the possibility to have several mech town clears because of using an action is way too swingy. Add in that this setup also featured masons, an unsilenceable IC, and two town killing powers, one of which is unblockable. That’s a tough road to hoe even if the scum team are all active and willing to work on the same page, and we didn’t have anything resembling that.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Just a note: it's the *number* of effects that feels off. Just the vanilla cop, or the complex friendly neighbor, would work, but the pair feels oppressive.

Also, it wasn't our actions that made it probable that scum had no goons; it was the fact that scum got to choose their roles.

Our action made it *certain* that the last scum was not VT, but there was a strong pull towards assuming vanilla=town from D2.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I will say that I don't think I've seen bullying to that extent (in the scum discord) since I was in middle school

rip in peace bitmap

I’m not sure what in particular bothered you, but I don’t recall much being that bad. The worst comments from me, for example, don’t even rise to the level of shit that gets said in main game threads all the time on site. I tend to be very blunt in scum chats.

Of course, I’m not even sure you’re swinging at me with the comment so... but if it wasn’t me I don’t recall anything anyone else said that would have bothered me either.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

I mean I would do it separately too lol.

[Reasonably Rational]

I mean I would do it separately too lol.

Did Cerb tell you about FF Tactics?

I still have fond memories of that game XD

Tactics was pretty sweet. Silly game though.

Silly Varsoon making town think they had awesome powers when in reality the game was effectively mountainous with a D0 where everyone was town and a N0 where nobody died.

-Cerb