Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Bingle]

Hi guys. I’ve played about 20 minutes total of undertale. What’s up?

[Bingle]

[Bingle]

No the real skeletons are buried across the street chem, in the dead people farm.

[Bingle]

Priority imo is getting Bingle caught up and Nacho in the game.

Good luck with that. I’ll skim some tonight but I straight up don’t have the free time to try hard here so I’m prolly just gonna look for someone to sheep.

[Bingle]

Priority imo is getting Bingle caught up and Nacho in the game.

Good luck with that. I’ll skim some tonight but I straight up don’t have the free time to try hard here so I’m prolly just gonna look for someone to sheep.

Then why would you replace in?

[fight]Bingle[/fight]

Pops asked me to repeatedly and I helped design the setup.

[Bingle]

Okay. I’m townreading Farkran from the last three pages. Fark, what should I be voting for?

Wouldn’t trust psyche or Amrun to watch the tip jar at a Starbucks. If Fark disappoints I’m probably defaulting to chem as a recent poster who doesn’t give me ick feelings.

[Bingle]

That’s not a good reason if you don’t intend to try.

I am going to be upset if you’re town.

A half assed Bingle is better than a no assed slot, and repeated requests to replace in imply that’s the choice we have here, so go ahead and be disappointed, I guess.

[Bingle]

^ third in line for sheeping.

[Bingle]

snip

HURT: Hectic

I’m not going to read ISO’s and I’m sheeping you because Amrun says you logic is shit without disagreeing with any results. When the consensus seems to be “the new guy can solve the game for us!” actually pushing something is probably a town move and I don’t see signs that anyone else has done so.

[Bingle]

I finally bother yo put my alimdia scumread to words and literally no one has a single word to say about it?

Maybe try words that aren’t “I wanna policy lynch Bingle for not tryharding”.

[Bingle]

wow what a bold misrep

Not really?

Like, we’re talking about 1108 here, right? Cause I see a weak AF meta case that doesn’t even come across as something am believes on someone who apparently wasn’t around, followed by “Bingle wouldn’t replace in if he was busy.”

How is that not a shitty policy lynch?

[Bingle]

@1130: is there a reason to townread you that doesn’t boil down to “I was being townread at some point”?

[Bingle]

you've just moved from saying's amrun's 1108 case is just her advocating for a policy lynch on you for not tryharding...to acknowledging that she actually spent

most

of the case (the two largest of three paragraphs!)
focused on alimdia that wasn't policy lynch advocacy

I’ll bite. What part of her case that isn’t “I want to policy lynch jingle” am I supposed to be able to engage over?

How is wanting to lynch me on the basis that I’m not going back to read the rest of the game and am going to devote significantly less effort to this game than I usually do as either alignment not policy?

[Bingle]

I find the insinuation that I’m lying about RL across the site for an advantage in this game pretty insulting when that was the a) something that was made public before I replaced in and b) actually the subject of the most recent momo ban.

Pops asked me to replace in. I told pops I was busy and would have to go vla relatively soon, but if she needed me I could fill the slot. I was sent the role pm. Insisting otherwise is calling me a cheater.

If you don’t want to deal with that, fine. But don’t try to dress a pig in a suit and call it a duke. It’s a policy lynch.

[Bingle]

The post psyche called a misrep was a response to your post about how no one was engaging you, not your case. I think I’ve fully explained why I haven’t engaged you.

If you don’t think my level of thread presence is going to help you read me, well... sucks to be you, I guess.

[Bingle]

it was an inaccurate representation of the case though

No it was an accurate representation of everything she’s done I could respond to. I ignored the case, similarly to how she ignored that I actually have a reason to think Farkran is town.

[Bingle]

You disagree that Farkran being the only one to actively push something when I replaced in is town indicative?

[Bingle]

I think there’s exactly one scum in this whole line of inquiry, btw. I lean psyche over Amrun.

[Bingle]

Also if you could keep this between us that would be grrreat but is Bingle just a Jingle alt???

Yes, publicly. I made the account to keep my missing and playing separate while dealing with the 19 pts of Boon wars ( and 4 other games I was involved in modding to some extent).

[Bingle]

You disagree that Farkran being the only one to actively push something when I replaced in is town indicative?

Are we literally supposed to pretend that scum don’t push things? Idgi

They don’t tend to push unpopular things when they can afford to sit on their hands, no. Am I wrong that fark has a fairly contentious angle?

[Bingle]

(Of note: alimdia actually did something similar to a scum buddy in GnR. She drew attention to her lurking, but this was pushed by Menalque behind the scenes and it was a very different gamestate. I think it’s unlikely alimdia would repeat that here.)

This is what I’m talking about when I say it looks like am doesn’t really believe the case btw.

[Bingle]

They don’t tend to push unpopular things when they can afford to sit on their hands, no.

ooh this is such an interesting and testable idea
but i don't get what it means - what does it mean for a player to sit on their hands? no vote at all? just sheeping? lurking? can scum usually afford that kind of disengagement for long?

Eh. It’s not so much who is engaged as who is rocking the boat, but sure.

Like, for example Amrun is definitely engaged and paddling, but nothing she’s doing seems likely to drop a big rock in the pond. Farkran (by virtue of amruns description of his play) seems like he’s trying to throw that rock.

That doesn’t make Amrun scum, btw. Town tunnel and maintain gamestate too.

[Bingle]

If I’m not misreading hec’s case it boils down to Hectic is t/t or s/s reading the hec/Chara interactions and knows he’s town via role pm. Is that more or less accurate?

[Bingle]

Sort of, but there’s no consensus scumread on anyone so there’s no really popular way to go. Most people did townread Hectic so I would say that one qualifies.

That’s kinda my point. No one seems to really strongly believe anything, so weak pushes are completely normal. Fark is pushing something contentious and unpopular when the majority of people are just coasting along. Yours is the second strongest push and I get more of a sense of “Well, maybe this is right and there’s nothing better to go on” than any actual conviction it is right.

[Bingle]

As an aside, did you guys decide you wanted to go 4 spares or just that you wanted to go early spares?

[Bingle]

As an aside, did you guys decide you wanted to go 4 spares or just that you wanted to go early spares?

there's not really consensus on it.
half the people want 4 SPAREs and half want to FIGHT.

Oh. Early spares is objectively correct and we should be shooting for 2-4 spares. If we think we can lock in four spares D1 FN doesn’t claim, otherwise FN claims and is spared D1. If we think we can 4 spares we should pick a strong town player to not be spared who can be FN’d and then ensure the FN gets spared at some point.

It’s kinda too late to act on most of that though.

[Bingle]

Oh. He shouldn’t have claimed before being spared, but burnt bridges and all that. It’s not a HUGE loss anyway, just a loss at a low probability of an IC in 3p Lylo if we hit 1 maf in 5 spares.

[Bingle]

I was more talking about hectics case on Chara than yours on hectic.

I’m tr-ing you. I want to know why Hectic is being tr-d because that tells me a lot of what’s going on with him, but I don’t actually know if he’s town or scum. I’d prefer he post the tldr of why he was put to s-1 because that’s a less biased account than someone either for or against the wagon (or at least the bias is known, I guess it’s still the same amount of bias). Psyche and Amrun aren’t S/S and I thought psyche was the more likely scum of the pair because it seemed like he was trying to pour gas on a dumpster fire more than actually solve anything, but that’s kinda changed recently. I do think there is likely to be one scum in them atm.

Someone said hectics Chara argument applies more to others than Chara which is a fairly good argument to not spare on unless the other flips town imo, and means we should be looking at the others for town (rep I think?).

[Bingle]

why do you do this to me bingle
you were the chosen one
it was said that you would flip as scum not convincingly hunt for them
bring balance to my readlist, not leave it in darkness

I told you halfassed Bingle was superior to a no assed slot.

[Bingle]

sure thing, pal.
tldr:
Nacho townread us very early mainly for our gimmick
Chemist and Chara agreed early iirc
the game was slow early on and i was very active which is part of it i think
i recall Replica thought my progression was good on early reads like Sherlock
that's what i can remember for reasons up to being put on L-1

So 3/4 would be Rvs strength? Why would qh-ing an Rvs sparewagon not be sketch?

[Bingle]

And no, I’m not fire and brimstone level of conviction on your slot, not by any means. Faking fire and brimstone is very easy. Can you give me some sort of scum motivation for providing counterpoints to my own arguments, occasionally?

I... agree? The motivation for faking confidence as both alignments is it makes the wagon more likely to go through. The motivation for not faking confidence as scum is less splashback when/if I flip town. The motivation for not faking confidence as town is not being confident in your read. I tend towards faking the confidence as both, but mostly the point to pointing out you don’t seem confident is because it colors my perceptions of people interacting with your push.

The reason you’re >rand scum in a vacuum is because you’re going after a lhf lurkerslot I know to be town in a way that lets you have minimal blowback as scum. You’ll note from the fact I’m still sheeping a case I admittedly haven’t been reading much of how strong that read actually is.

[Bingle]

i was on L-1 up till a few days before deadline
it wasn't an RVS wagon
the game was slow when Suji offered to hammer but there were a couple of replacements who hadn't spoken yet

sure thing, pal.
tldr:
Nacho townread us very early mainly for our gimmick
Chemist and Chara agreed early iirc
the game was slow early on and i was very active which is part of it i think
i recall Replica thought my progression was good on early reads like Sherlock
that's what i can remember for reasons up to being put on L-1

You don’t see a disconnect between strength in reasons and length of wagon?

[Bingle]

What’s with the nachovote?

[Bingle]

Bingle: your reads seem based on the timing you replaced in to the exclusion of the rest of the game. or not seems, this is what you've said and i believe it. i know you don't want to read the entire thing, though i think some context would help things, but couching all of your reads with the followup that none of them are especially strong is exactly the sort of "pushing things with minor blowback" you're accusing Amrun of.

why do you TR Replica?

Okay. If you link a few posts you think are important I’ll probably skim them. If you link a bunch of posts I won’t.

I don’t tr rep. I think that the statement that hecs tr on you applies more to rep than to you is an interesting one that bears investigation, and am strongly suggesting other people do that for me.

[Bingle]

i know you've given reads on Farkran and Psyche. why is Psyche town?

?

The only time I elaborated on psyche was to say why I think he’s scummier than Amrun, why Amrun/Psyche isn’t S/S and that psyche had felt less scummy recently. None of that is a townread.

Psyche feels better because I get the sense he’s trying to figure out what is happening instead of manipulate people into fights. It doesn’t make him town, but does make his perspective considerably more interesting.

[Bingle]

Nacho looks p town. I’m even more interested in why there’s a vote there. His sequencing is wrong though.

[Bingle]

hey can you sheep me on either chemist or hectic?

Maybe. I feel like I can come around to Hectic town and chemist has done fuckall. I’m pretty confident that fark is town and fark is pretty confident that hec is scum though, so I’m gonna wait for a rebuttal.

[Bingle]

TLDR Hectic/Chara look aligned, hectics reasons for tr Chara apply equally well to replica and are thus maybe faked, and I’m pretty sure there was a third reason, but I don’t remember what it is.

[Bingle]

Farkran also mentioned town having no reason to delay their own spare, though i disagree with that point pretty heavily given scum has even more reason not to delay their own spare.

For the record both town and scum have reasons to delay their own spare, especially D1.

Town could want to continue influencing the thread or they could think the spare route is likely to be infiltrated by mafia.

Scum, OTOH, need to continue looking town after being spared unless we literally spare both of them.

Fark, do you agree that this is/was your opinion? Has it changed? Why?

[Bingle]

I never really realized that 3 town spares and a scum lynch is as much a win as 4 town spares.
I'm kind of mediocre intellectually the more I think about it.
Oh well good thing life isn't about being good at stuff.
Unless I'm wrong about that as well.

it's way more of a win because scum are forced to submit a nightkill on themselves

and i'm well aware that my desire for a flashy win is a well-known Achilles heel of mine and thus i need people to keep my honest but i really do think that winning via scum being forced to select themselves as one of their nightkills is really fucking awesome

It’s not a bad goal. It’s just that sequence wise sparing then lynching is more likely to work than killing then sparing.

[Bingle]

HURT: popsofyourface

HEAL: hectic

Ok.

[Bingle]

Why? Serious question. Why do you now townread hectic based on a poorly assembled meta case of his first game on site and a 40p multiball theme?

Why do you townread Nacho enough to sheep him while doing a complete 180° of your previous read?

I don’t think nachos case on Hectic is S/S. I think, independently of that, that nacho is likely town.

The meta case on Hectic doesn’t seem like a bad one, at all, and I’m willing to BoP nacho. If I’m confident in his ability to townread and confident that he’s not pushing a spare through on a buddy, why not trust his spare read?

Also: I’m not reversing a read, but changing a sheep. I always thought your hectic case was more more :eyebrows: for Chara than hec, tbh.

[Bingle]

I’m roughly at

Nacho/Fark
Hectic/rep
Psyche
Amrun/Chara/chem

I trust nacho/psyche to have the strongest sense of what’s going on atm.

[Bingle]

Hey guys, I think Farkran is a serial killer because he’s shit at being 3rd party.

[Bingle]

I have no idea why anyone wouldn’t want to spare today, unless they specifically want a 1 spare route, tbh.

Mathematically, the shift from spare to lynch should only reverse if we hit scum. We have the same information for d2 as we would have from a traditional lynch and a diverse enough pool of people who others think should be locktown that we can actually get information from who is shot. We should probably lynch tomorrow, but sparing here seems like a no brainer with the combination of strong townreads and gamestate.

Speaking purely from random chance, we have a 7/9 chance to hit town today. That is a good set of odds.

[Bingle]

Akshually:

HEAL: Farkran

I have reasons to want to delay the hectic spare that I cannot elaborate into at this time.

[Bingle]

Also I agree with Farkran that sparing today is totally different than sparing FN yesterday. Having no flip today makes me disgusted.

I’d probably vote to fight almost anyone that would go through rather than sparing anyone still alive.

If we fight today we are necessarily going the 1 spare route unless we hit scum.

Any lynch here is going to be on a townread of several people making it pulling teeth to achieve or very low information anyway. No one has strong scumreads.

Any nightkill here is going to be high information.

[Bingle]

I would very much like to go the 1 spare route, yes.

I don’t functionally disagree with anything else you’ve said but the idea of sparing any slot left and not knowing how it flipped is like maddening.

Your argument is functionally “Let’s play mountainous!”

The whole point of the setup is trading the uncertainty of spares for progressively stronger mechanical information, and spares are objectively more useful early than late. I am 100% opposed to lynching today.

Are you seriously saying that in 50 pages you have 0 reads that you’re comfortable going, “yup, that’s town.”

[Bingle]

I will say that lynching tomorrow is probably the right call, and we should probably only spare D4 if we hit scum tomorrow.

[Bingle]

I would like to point out, for anyone who hasn’t picked it up, that any mislynch precludes an autowin via mechanics AND no one is confident on a scumread that isn’t necessarily being hard defended by a town player.

[Bingle]

My tr isn’t based on effort, it’s based on who specifically he went after and my perception of the gamestate. I’ll consider your case though.

[Bingle]

Ngl, I’m appreciating my new fanclub. Replica is clearly an intelligent and attractive individual who should spend more time talking about how great I am.

[Bingle]

[quote="In post 1434, Farkran"][/quote]

First of all, none of the routes are worse than 11v2 mountainous. Second, 11v2 mountainous (note, more townies than we started with) has an observed win rate of 39.5% which is unacceptably low to me. That has nothing to do with EV. Third, if we’re going to win solely off of scumhunting, we would win anyway.

This game isn’t designed to make minimal use of the spare option. It is massively scumsided if you choose to do so. This is not opinion, this is verifiable truth.

[Bingle]

None of the routes are worse than mountainous. Spare one actually is worse than 11v2 mountainous, so I guess congrats on that?

[Bingle]

I would unheal Farkran atp, tbh, but that tag is a lot of work on a phone.

[Bingle]

@Bingle: I’m really fine with mountainous so it’s whatever. One spare doesn’t bother me at all since it was confirmed town. I just don’t care about that very much.

What part of: if we had two more townies than we started the game with we would still be EXPECTED to lose this as mountainous is a difficult concept? Being fine with mountainous is okay, I guess (although maybe don’t sign up for games you don’t want to play ) but actively screwing over the town because you don’t like the main conceit of the game really isn’t.

[Bingle]

Run tests on the other routes as well. If you take only EV into account, results will be roughly balanced. But i think flip info is superior to this particular EV difference in balancing.

When you talk about observed winrate, you mean statistical analysis, not gross random probability, correct? I'd be interested in reading some of that data. Besides, i also think it'd be a bit biased because, mostly, only good players are interested in playing mountainous. If we ran a 11v2 mountainous newbie matrix, results would be vastly different imo.

Route 2 is roughly equivalent to fn+1 shot vig +5vt v 2 goons.

Route 3 is “there is at least 1 scum in unspared players and at most 1 scum in spared players”, which is valuable associative information that helps with making an informed lynch.

Route 4 is vote for town. And yeah, is probably strictly worse than route 3.

[Bingle]

@ mod: V/la 3 days

[Bingle]

So... three days turned into 36 hours and I have internet again. I’m about to pass out but I’ll read the game when I wake up.

[Bingle]

That kill makes no sense, I'm highkey mad it wasn't me, and this means another day of Cats (2019) for everybody.

I'm probably looking to spare Bingle today then lynch in Fark/Chemist/Nacho tomorrow.

Nah, we lynch today.

[Bingle]

Hectic quickhammering when we were waiting for Bingle to speak when he had just returned from a shortened V/LA is huge townpoints to bingle imo.

Not really. I was about to come in and talk about a game ending that supported nachos meta and I’m pretty sure Hectic knew that cause he was in said game.

[Bingle]

I think we fight today

If we hit scum, spare tomorrow
If we hit town, fight tomorrow

This is objectively the case.

If I'm put to Spare-1 I'd hammer, but we should be lynching today from a town perspective. We know D1 was a townspare, and D2 was likely a townspare in most people's eyes. However, if D2 was a scumspare then sparing another scum loses us the game. Routes 2 and 3 are the best routes, and lynching puts us in those routes exclusively.

Also, I'm available and have the time to read the whole game now, so I'll do that today/tomorrow. Honestly, I should have overnight because I knew I was going to be alive, but I played Arena instead.

To everyone confused by the Psyche kill, why?

[Bingle]

It occurred to me that if we lynch scum today we autowin.

[Bingle]

I suppose I should explain. We lynch scum and spare literally anyone tomorrow: either no scum were spared and the game is over because scum shoot themselves or the remaining scum is in Hectic/Tomorrow spare.

Potential teams for eight unflipped players is kind of a lot of ground to cover, but I think we can rule out a significant number of teams.

[Bingle]

I meant to spend time on this today and didn’t. I apologize. I am halfway done with reading, though and feel considerably worse about both Fark and Amrun and considerably better about Chara.

[Bingle]

hello

I’m down to fight Bingle today I think

Oh?

Do tell.

[Bingle]

Hectic
Replica
Farkran
Amrun
Chara
Nachomamma8
Chemist1422
Bingle

Okay, so playerlist. I'm going to be going one by one through not me and looking at potential teams in this post. It will be long.

Spoiler: Hectic Teams

Looking at game state, I think if Hectic is scum, the partner would be on the spare wagon. Therefore, viable Hectic teams are:

Hectic/Nacho
Hectic/Replica
Hectic/Chara

To double check, this precludes Amrun/Farkran/Chem as buddies. Fark as a buddy is pretty :/ in the first place. I'll check Amrun/Chem voting patterns later for counterindications, but it seems likely that both of them would have spare voted Hectic given a townread there if they were S/S.

Having actually read D1 at this point, Chara's unvote after Suji and Alim expressed hammer intent on Hectic does actually strongly imply that isn't a S/S team, even from a nontown Hectic PoV or a nontown Chara PoV. Fark's insinuations otherwise are pretty :eyebrows: tbh.

Hectic/Nacho is something both Amrun and Psyche discounted, and actually I find myself agreeing there. Nacho put a lot of work into arguing and defending his Hectic townread. I'm pretty sure that doesn't come from a maybe I can get my buddy spared place, and the paranoid part of me that says that's exactly what scumNacho wants, but I don't think encouraging my paranoia is a route that's particularly helpful to go down.

Remaining potential teams:

Hectic/Replica

Spoiler: Replica Teams

Despite my overall townread here, there aren't any Replica teams I'm counting out at the moment. Vote history suggests that scumRep was probably interested in buddying SH, and the only SH pushers early were Hectic and my slot, so maybe slightly less likely there than otherwise.

Potential Replica Teams:

Replica/Farkran
Replica/Amrun
Replica/Chara
Replica/Nachomamma8
Replica/Chemist1422

Spoiler: Farkran Teams

Early lurker policy lynches are rarely busses, especially in anti bus setups, so I think it's a fair working theory that Farkran is not scum with any of [Nacho/Amrun/Suji] via VC 1.5. Additionally, Farkran's murderboner for Chara and Hectic makes them very much unlikely to be buddies.

That leaves

Farkran/Chemist

Spoiler: Amrun Teams

Amrun is pretty clearly not scum aligned with me, but that doesn't help my analysis since I'm ignoring myself for the moment. I mention this because Nacho said we had partner equity and that's bonkers. I'm also fairly certain there isn't an Amrun/Nacho team based on posts like:

1. I don’t really remember Nacho’s scumtells but he’s a good player and seems to be actively sorting and moving gamestate forward. We will do better if form together like two sides of a hatchet so for now I will treat him as town and re-eval as gamestate dictates.

2. It’s a pretty good strategy but I think it leads to an information less day. I think it’s better to proceed with the day as normal for now, but closer to deadline, revisit this. Scum knowing who the IC is will inform their play so as to render the interactions unhelpful. But it’s a good point worthy of discussion.

A) I think it has been made pretty clear that Nacho and I intend to work together at least for now. Chara not so much but it doesn’t bother me. I’m the primary pusher of Sujimichi, and Nacho is the primary defender of Hectic, though I didn’t vote to spare until I decided I agreed based on something Hectic did that was towny. This is all in thread. Chara following us IS interesting, but I think we planned/hoped to be followed so it’s not really THAT interesting until there’s some flips to sort with.

Blowing smoke up Nacho's ass about how good he is and deflecting responsibility for the Hectic spare wagon onto Nacho both come across as unaligned. It's worth noting that Amrun has consistently tr-d Nacho and talks at length about him (108 instances of Nacho in her ISO) which is not what I'd expect from a partner worried about associations.

Amrun also has non teammate spewing interactions with... All of the flipped town. Yay.

Potential Amrun Teams:

Amrun/Chara
Amrun/Chemist1422

Spoiler: Chara Teams

I see nothing precluding either a Chara/Nacho or Chara/Chem team.

Spoiler: Nacho/Chem

Unlikely. Nacho's desire for a Chem lynch yesterday when he's demonstrated the most awareness of the implications of a scum lynch on a 3/1 path doesn't seem aligned in the slightest.

Spoiler: Team Possibilities (Loosely)

Hectic/Replica
Replica/Farkran
Replica/Amrun
Replica/Chara
Replica/Nachomamma8
Replica/Chemist1422
Farkran/Chemist
Amrun/Chara
Amrun/Chemist1422
Chara/Nacho
Chara/Chem

From this:

Hectic: 1
Replica: 6
Fark: 2
Amrun: 3
Chara: 5
Nacho: 2
Chem: 4

Replica/Chara/Chem are the highest priority slots imo. I'm tr-ing Replica, which means Fark is a never-lynch-before-Chem slot and Nacho is a never-lynch-before-Chara slot. Does anyone have strong feelings about Chara/Chem (Individually, not as associatives) that they'd like to share?

Reexamining, my lynch pool for today is Amrun/Chara/Chem. Of the three I find Amrun the most scummy.

[Bingle]

I’d rather not spare Replica for the same reason he’s frustrated today. Its a demoralizing, demotivating way to play. I will do it if I have to but I don’t think I have to compromise anymore - I think fight supporters finally are in the majority.

Sparing D3 is mechanically wrong, so... Good?

[Bingle]

I meant to spend time on this today and didn’t. I apologize. I am halfway done with reading, though and feel considerably worse about both Fark and Amrun and considerably better about Chara.

Explain yourself. What changed?

I am no longer 2000 miles from my house and have access to my desktop once more?

If you're talking about my reads, Amrun will get her own post, but you/Chara are linked in that I don't feel the descriptions you gave of D1 were as reasonable as they sounded having read what was being described and that influenced my reads on both of you.

[Bingle]

I have felt mindmeldy with Chara at several points which is typically something that happens with town but not guaranteed.

Show me some points where you felt she mindmelded with you (preferably with pointers as to where you expressed the same feelings) if you don't mind.

[Bingle]

Literally who wasn’t...? I tried to bargain Chemist into a single fight vote on him and couldn’t.

Psyche, cats, Chara I think, Chemist’s read was nebulous. Can’t remember your stance yesterday tbh. I think Farkran also TR that slot? Add me to the mix and it’s a spare easily tbh. Especially without me trying to constantly bring negative attention to the slot.

As of my replace in, just cats.

Psyche reversed his read on me from scum to town midway through yesterday (around the time I explained my theory that scum wouldn't be loudly going against the grain) and Farkran was treating me as town because I was listening and wasn't named Chara/Hectic but not actually tr-ing me iirc. Everyone else had me as null or scum, they just had a townread or scumread they were more interested in talking about.

[Bingle]

2S/2F is the possibly most similar to a full genocide route, yet you still renounce to 2 flip info. We have 5 town-controlled kills in both routes though, because full genocide leads to a 5th lynch in New Home lylo. Of course, assuming you lynch at least one scum in the process, but then it's also true that you can spare scum within the 2S route. Analyzing spare wagon is strictly worse than fight wagons, because you don't get the flip. Even if you are forced to go down the 2S/2F route, it would still be better to lynch first and spare later. A minor mathematical advantage is insignificant compared to flip information, i will never say it enough, just in case we get to play another undertale some day in the future.

First of all, the setup is autowin if the first lynch is on scum. Second of all, if you want to play a game without a spare mechanic as opposed to just whining about the conceit of the game you signed up for for it's duration, maybe sign up for a game without a spare mechanic. Third, if you want to waste time talking about theory that's irrelevant to the game for some theoretical future game, maybe save it for the post game where your alignment is known and you're not a giant distraction.

[Bingle]

I'm going to wait on my Amrun thoughts for a bit, but my reads list is looking like:

Replica
Nacho
Fark/Chara
Chem
Amrun

I find it unlikely that Hectic is scum.

[Bingle]

This level of engagement took so long because I was mobile only. I've... not hidden that?

Hectic/Chara-

Even if I assume that Hectic/Chara assumed that Chara would later be able to push through the spare wagon, there's no reason not to stay on wagon from Chara. At best, jumping off there delays the day end and means town has more information. At worst, it draws attention to Chara and allows for opinions to change. If you're happy with the way the thread is going as scum (spare wagon with your partner as the target at L-1 and two slots willing to hammer qualifies) you don't generally make big waves, and it's weird to me that you don't see that.

Nacho trying to strongarm a partner spare doesn't seem outside of his range, no, but specifically looking through and finding all of his scum meta is an odd tack for buddyNacho to take. It's not an impossible team, I suppose, but I'm not really interested in Hectic/Nacho as a team that's likely. It is probably the weakest of my exclusions, and was mostly included on the basis that both Rep and Amrun had already reached that conclusion and it made sense to me.

I don't think there was any real chance of you being spared yesterday. It's why I didn't bother unvoting you. Leaving my vote there had no real chance of having a big impact. As for being worried about your lynch, your wagon capped at L-3 while the spare was at L-1 (Count 2.7). There was never any wagon in serious contention for an actual lynch yesterday, and pretending otherwise is pretty meh.

I'm not sure why you're arguing for the inclusion of Amrun/you, but I don't think a glorified lurker wagon that was the leading wagon at the time while Amrun had a pretty comfortable reason to give you room (replacement) (Count 1.8).

I'd be interested in your reasons for Replica/Fark and Replica/Chara not being viable, although I think your Rep/Nacho reasoning is sound. I think as far as me teams goes, Amrun is the only one that doesn't really make sense. The reason that I'm not talking about them is that I'm clearly biased by my foreknowledge that I'm town and so talking about them is a waste of time.

Do you disagree with my conclusions, past the individual pairings?

[Bingle]

Comments like this are really out of place coming from you specifically, being a heavy setup speculator yourself. Why do you find my posts a distraction, in this game specifically?

Because what we should have done isn't relevant? Your posts are already long and difficult to parse. Adding in things that don't matter makes it more tedious to read them, when it's already the case that you tend to multipost walls and make people want to disengage in the first place.

Note, I've been holding myself back from setup speccing unless it's directly relevant to what we're doing the same day. I've made few, if any, math walls this game, although I'm certainly able to.

[Bingle]

What the actual fuck is that kill

@Amrun: Why were you so surprised by the Psyche kill?

[Bingle]

Snip

Rep/Fark is a team I didn't analyze very thoroughly but looking back you have a point. (I mostly glossed over the Rep teams because of the individual towniness of Rep. It's also why he was so early in the list.)

I think you're mistaking trying to think from a scum POV and trying to think "What would I do here as scum." There are players who scheme and are methodical as scum. They're not the norm. Neither Hectic or Chara fit into that perspective from what I know of them, and I've played with both of them quite a few times (although admittedly I know Chara's style mostly from it hydraing with A50.) The idea that either of them would choose "Let's draw attention to the one of us who isn't being spared by having them delay the wagon on the other who WON'T flip when the spare goes through in the hopes of towncred should either of us be lynched later" is very :/ both because it presumes that they are an entirely different type of player than I think they are (and I don't think either is hard to get a bead on in that sense) AND it's a very unlikely bit of towncred to go hunting for. At best, it helps Hectic if we lynch Chara and it flips red. At worst, it prevents Chara spare.

Similarly, Replica/Chara is a team you're discounting based on what you would do in that position, and I doubt fully that you have a good enough bead on Rep's style to say for sure what he'd try to do as scum generally, let alone in a specific situation. I also disagree wholeheartedly that "it would be easy to get a Farkran lynch through". You were being voted by Hectic, and Hectic alone. Chara/Rep could have swung to you, sure, but that does not a wagon make. A large portion of the town wanted a spare regardless. I was townreading you, and I think Amrun/Psyche/Nacho etc had all expressed some degree of "I disagree but think he's town anyway." wrt your slot. I'm also not sure how Nacho doubling down on his townread on Hectic and then immediately getting a vote for his wagon (from me) in any way indicates he's going to be willing to spare a weaker townread who is being pushed as scum by exactly the same person as his stronger townread.

Nacho/Hectic being a result of Nacho asking Hectic for his scumgames is a world where Nacho asks Hectic for his scumgames to use as meta, finds out his buddy is bad at scum, and then chooses to doubledown on his buddy being able to maintain a strong enough townread to be spared. Unless you think that Nacho's meta is faked (and I don't see any arguments that it is) then that's a frankly baffling method to take.

As far as how I would go about getting a partner spared? I wouldn't commit to a strategy like that in the early game. I play a reactive scumgame unless there is a clear reason not to (see role call and a mechwin on D3). The most important thing for scum in this setup is to ensure the first lynch is on town. All other concerns are secondary. If one of you is townread enough to get spared, go for it, otherwise play normally and respond to what the thread is putting out. Locking yourself in to a course of action just means you react woodenly when things come up.

[Bingle]

I don’t hate the content, though I feel he’s about to come in with some huge bogus case on me but we will see.

The case exists, I just haven't typed it up yet and I'm interested to see the state of the thread before I do.

[Bingle]

Amrun i feel has been engaging more naturally with the list as a whole.

Really?

Cause personally I've felt that engaging with Amrun has had all the difficulty of leading a camel through the eye of a needle, and has since I replaced in.

[Bingle]

Snip

My issues with your engagement stem largely from having to ask you the same question multiple times to get an answer, a complete lack of any answer when I don't follow up, and a general lack of you doing anything at all wrt the posts I make that are solvey.

For example, I asked twice about why the psyche kill was weird and it was only on the second pass that you acknowledged it.

When I asked for posts about where you mindmelded with Chara you linked posts where you said you mindmelded with Chara.

I attempted to engage you over my Fark read several times.

You have repeatedly accused me of lying about my inability to devote time to the thread when I was provably low impact site wide and had publicly posted the reason why, which is insulting at best and ACTUALLY an accusation of cheating.


Yeah, getting you to interact has definitely felt like pulling teeth and I'm interested in why Chara thinks otherwise.

As far as my activity:

Priority imo is getting Bingle caught up and Nacho in the game.

Good luck with that. I’ll skim some tonight but I straight up don’t have the free time to try hard here so I’m prolly just gonna look for someone to sheep.

I don't have time to tryhard doesn't imply in the slightest that if that situation changes I won't tryhard. It in fact implies the opposite. I didn't go into the fact that I was mostly unavailable because I'd posted as such into several games which are now over, such as Cult D3 (which had Hectic and Farkran and was brought up in this game) and Brass & Shrapnel (Which had Hectic and I intended to bring up in this game as soon as it finished.) Hell, I'm fairly certain you were at least peripherally aware that I wasn't as around as I wanted to be for NAI reasons given *reasons*.

And congratulations on your ability to phone post? My normal style is to have 6 or seven windows open and make my posts in notepad. I can't do that on the phone. I especially can't do that when I'm 2000 miles away from home with no Wifi and limited utilities. Sorry.

[Bingle]

I dunno, I'd say that hypothetically he could be scummy for not making promises/excuses, but I've seen more town halfass and say "Well it's the town's fault if they lynch me for it" than I can count. I honestly hate the fact I'd even consider it more likely to come from town just because it's so garbage and I don't want to validate it.

?

It's 100% NAI. My personal unavailability doesn't change based on what role PM I get. I wouldn't magically not be fixing a house to put on the market if I were scum any more than Amrun's daycare being shut down early day one would be affected by her role PM.

Either I was lying about RL across multiple games for an advantage in this one, which is explicitly cheating, or I was not lying and I didn't have the time to put my all into this game. Considering I was in Spokane when I repped in and had already announced that in both games I just mentioned, the "explicitly cheating" option is batshit insane.

[Bingle]

As far as I can tell Amrun isn't accusing you of lying about your availability either, it's again about your demeanor and how you responded to questions about it.

Eh. I went back to find the post I thought I read and couldn't, so maybe you're right and it was a fever dream. I'm still interested in seeing why Chara thinks Amrun has been readily interacting with people when I've had the opposite impression.

[Bingle]

Alright, Amrun case time.

Spoiler: The IIOA Part

Early days, Amrun was mostly lurking until being specifically engaged by Nacho. (Note: not scummy behavior.) Immediately in the wake of this, Amrun picks up in activity, which also isn't particularly questionable given the stated reasoning for the lack of interaction and the desire to play with Nacho (although this point is where I start to doubt an S/S Nacho/Amrun). She gives a couple reads (Nacho/Chem town) without reasoning.

Then Amrun comes in with her real beginning of play, 146. Suji is scum for attempting to blend in, and Asriel is scum for being awkward, but Chemist is town for disagreeing that Asriel is scum for being awkward.

At this point, Suji has one real post which is actually a decent one about why Nacho is likely town. Asriel is fluffing hard.

And:

Sorry, how is Sujimichi trying to blend in? He's barely posted

A) I mean, that’s pretty much what a lot of scum do - post only as much as necessary.

B) the tonality of his post is very awkward and buddying of nacho who is obviously one of the stronger players in the game, especially at that juncture.

I find it interesting that you attribute your behavior to you as null but to me as trying to blend in and being scummy. I think if you honestly review the game at the point I replaced in, it was mostly jokes which I do not do well with analyzing. Nachomamma8 was the first player to, in my opinion, do something game advancing. Thus my townread. Then, due to real life reason (of which you also claimed) I was gone for yesterday and I will be absent this afternoon.

I would posit that you view me as easy lynch material and so are fabricating a reason to push me.

HURT: Amrun

That quote is an early days Suji post that I wholeheartedly endorse. Amrun is voting Suji for doing literally the same thing as Amrun.

Amrun walks back her reason saying she wasn't scumreading Suji for the first half of her reasoning (a direct response to the question of why Amrun thinks Suji is scummy) wasn't her reason for scumreading Suji. And that quiet, infrequent posts aren't the same as catch up posts. Let's do a back to back comparison here:

Suji: 4 fluff posts back to back and an explanation of a townread.
Amrun: 2 I'm not here yet posts, 2 mech posts, and 2 explanation-less townreads immediately after being called into the thread.

And Suji is townreading the same person as Amrun.

When confronted about why Amrun is tr-ing Nacho (twice):

1. I don’t really remember Nacho’s scumtells but he’s a good player and seems to be actively sorting and moving gamestate forward. We will do better if form together like two sides of a hatchet so for now I will treat him as town and re-eval as gamestate dictates.

tl;dr:



And... That's the end of that. That case disappears fully to policy wagon a lurker who is on V/LA, Asriel, in 254. There was no mention of Suji between 186 and that point, when Suji's "recent posts have been better". For the record the posts in between include Suji unvoting Amrun and mechposting, but there is content posts that could be quality in Amrun's eyes. Posts engaging with Chara, my slot, and the pine wagon.

Amrun votes Hectic for spare (L-2) but still hasn't talked about why Hectic is town.

Amrun is apparently pushing Suji as of now but her last two Suji mentions were:

HURT: Asriel


@Chara: why aren’t YOU pressuring Asriel as well if you agree?

But I do too, and I did say earlier I feel Asriel is off.

I simply didn’t want to let up on Sujimichi but his more recent contributions have definitely been better.

Let’s consolidate and choo choo.

Amrun is a difficult case in that i agree with what she's said, and can identify with that. such as 254 as i mentioned. (about not wanting to let up on Sujimichi) but i don't know if making sense is enough.

Amrun, what about Replica did you like more? besides the contextual mistakes, which were rectified when pointed out, i feel like their posting feel has been fairly consistent since they replaced in.

Idk, I still think his statements about Nacho’s town case on Hectic is busywork at best. It clearly never intended to go anywhere. I DON’T like that.

In general, I like that he’s being active and producing content.

I definitely do not want to spare him today.

This change from an apparent townlean but not spare read to "IWASSCUMREADINGHERTHEWHOLETIME" comes as a direct response to Fark voting suji and commenting on the voting bloc of Amrun/Chara/Nacho. Fark, who she's still voting as a lurker read. Despite the fact that Asriel was replaced.

Speaking of Fark:

You say you are the primary pusher against sujimichi, and i did read your 1v1, placing you in the top slots of my readlist mainly because of that. In this re-read i compared the VCs to interactions, and once again i notice that you are having no issues with your primary scumread IMMEDIATELY sheeping you on a lurker slot that is now consensus scumread. I mean, sujimichi was voting the other lurker just ONE post prior to you voting my pred, then TEN posts later, in the same page, Sujimichi switch his vote on the other lurker - whose wagon was gaining traction - and you don't even question it? What makes you content with compromising with your strongest scumread, on a lurker slot no less?

And now, Amrun changed to Fark wagon from Suji not because recent posting improved, but because deadline consolidation. (Note: at the point of consolidation, Amrun joined a 1 vote lurker wagon, was not voting to spare, and there were 4 days until deadline.)

With a little bit of pressure, Amrun switches off of Fark onto Suji and unvotes the spare wagon. 4 days until deadline. And then immediately shades Suji who also unvoted Fark in favor of a not lurker wagon. Amrun then retracts this because she thought the wagon Suji had joined was a wagon started by Farkran, who had just convinced her to vote Suji.

Amrun's next shift is sheeping SH onto Psyche. For not having scumreads. This is the 6th mention of Psyche in Amrun's 79 posts. Previous mentions: Agreeing with Psyche tr-ing Nacho and responding to a quote containing Psyche's name and pointing out Pine and Psyche were mostly absent. Psyche, who at this point in the game had 10 posts. Yup, another lurker wagon.

And then, after Psyche's activity increases, Amrun switches to Alimdia in 747. Previous mentions of alimdia? When Farkran asked outright in 716: Not overly scummy, but amrun is okay lynching it. An associative with Farkran saying that they would necessarily be S/S in 655. And "she feels different than she did as scum" in 332. And... 751 gives the reason: Alimdia can be flashwagoned to make her produce content. So... Lurker wagon. Amrun hasn't changed her opinion on that lurker wagon since the end of Day 1. That lurker wagon she admittedly doesn't feel strongly about. That lurker wagon that boils down to alimdia's ISO looks like busy work.

Spoiler: Make Your Case

Amrun has pushed exclusively LHF wagons and consistently buddied Nacho. Her progression has consistently matched with the path of least resistance.

Suji, Asriel/Farkslot, Psyche, Me. From my PoV, I know that at least 3/4 of those are town slots, all of which were pushed with the weakest of reasoning. All of which (with the exception of me) were abandoned at the first sign of pushback. Her spares? Hectic, SH, and Suji, all well after they were consensus.

Her reasoning is internally inconsistent, as shown with her jump off of the Suji wagon for being townier recently and then her jump back on with the assertion she'd only switched to consolidate at EoD and had maintained the scumread the whole time. The alim meta evolved pretty substantially too, from Alimdia had trouble with read progression and was coached by a buddy to Alimdia played an extremely good scumgame. (For the record, I also caught Alimdia that game after replacing in as conftown and it wasn't particularly hard considering she claimed and then retracted in a particularly scummy fashion. Also, Ico flashlynched Amrun in my absence while I was especially unsure of her alignment.

tl;dr:
The majority of this case is admittedly BOP. Amrun is consistently pushing weak, easy cases on town. (Exclusively, in fact, if Fark is town.) There's also a few revisionist narratives where she switches the story behind her reasoning.




I would appreciate a 3rd party check to see if prevarication and lack of confidence are AI for her. Prevarication might be a town tell (I think I thought she was scum for it in the early days of D&D but was wrong and I don't recall it from Radja's ep 1 where I caught her as scum because of the setup). I don't recall any game with her where her reads have had this little in the way of confidence.

If anyone wants, these are the games I can remember that we've played together, although I could swear there were more.

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=81451&hilit=+jingle

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=81273&hilit=+jingle

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=81502&hilit=+jingle

[Bingle]

Yes, that was addressed to you as one of the two people who thought the Psyche kill was odd.

I haven't decided how I feel about your response. I don't think

Yes but from the perspective of me, who is town, it is a bit bananas.

The only thought I have is nacho seemed very hellbent on townreading him in a way that would have been difficult to reverse. Probably Bingle too. Idk. That’s weak.

Is a particularly satisfying response to the question, though. You didn't actually give any reason.

You fixed that after I brought it up again later with your thought that he was a viable mislynch, but no, the original response was not in any way satisfactory to me.

Speaking of things addressed to multiple people that you haven't responded to I gather you appreciated 1783, could you talk about your Chem read? I know you were mindmelding with Chara but are feeling worse about it, but I can't recall your thoughts on Chem and I've spent a lot of time in your ISO the last couple of days.

I'd also be interested in your take on my conclusions there, particularly not wanting to lynch Fark before Chem.

[Bingle]

@Bingle’s 1862:

Whether YOU agree with my assertions or not is rather beside the point. That point was that Chara was townreading you because you were engaging with everyone and my impression was pretty much the opposite.

Whether my impression is flawed or not is rather moot in the context of whether Chara's read is real or faked. And your admittance to missing things in the press of content actually strengthens my concerns that Chara's read might be fabricated.

As far as the activity concerns, I'll concede I might have felt personally attacked and overreacted. As I mentioned to Rep, I couldn't find the posts I thought existed, and I apologize for whatever portion of the tension lies with me.

And yes, I see that Chara responded.

[Bingle]

You said I never commented on Hectic and why I TR him, but I did. Before this, I stated I felt null on him, and then I stated that his postings on that particular page changed my mind. Like I’m not going to make a town case on like page 8? That’s plenty IMO.

On the page in question Hectic had made one post. Further, I'm not saying that you didn't show a progression there but that you didn't show your reasoning.

What you have failed to do is make a case for why ANY of your points against me, whether I agree with them or not, are scum motivated.

You also did not answer why you were holding the case on me - you just posted it. I’d still like to know the answer to that.

I was holding the case for two reasons: I hadn't typed it up yet and I was vaguely interested to see if the promise of a case was enough to get people to act strangely around you. Neither was worth delaying once I had the time to put pen to paper.

As far as scum motivation I thought I was fairly clear on that in the second spoiler. You made only the easy pushes and gave up whenever they became hard pushes. Scum wanting to blend in and not draw the ire of town is pretty self explanatory, I think.

[Bingle]

Also, I hear your point about chemist having more valid teams. I’m more personally interested in flipping the slot with the most chance to flip scum individually, but I think that’s a good point to consider.

I agree. If we lynch scum, we win, so lynching the scummiest player is the right move.

With that said, if Fark can only be scum with Chemist, and we're 90% sure Fark is scum, we're >= 90% sure Chemist is scum.

The fact that no one seems especially opposed to a Chemist lynch is actually mildly concerning, but I'm interested to see how much of that is lip service.

Are any of the teams I included unlikely in your eyes? Do you disagree with any of my removals?

[Bingle]

Amrun Case

I don't entirely think the second part ("make your case") is true, and that's what i'd like to understand from Amrun. My problem with her - but really not just her - today is that she specifically has NOT chosen the path of least resistance in d2, and walked back from that same path during d1.

I was, and have been, a really easy lynch for the whole game, yet i am being voted today of all times. Nacho entered the day posturing against me. Replica has always been scumreading me, this is no news - but that post about "plausibly reconsidering" his reads is awfully bad to make today.

As a consequence, instead of wondering why these posts are appearing all of a sudden, Amrun is walking the path of least resistance exactly right now, not any day where my flip would have been useful for a town solve.

You are in fact never the path of least resistance. Since you repped in you've been active and fought back. It's actually a major shift in Amrun's play that she's pushing you over Chemist here which is fascinating.

[Bingle]

current gamestate: i don't have the best sense of it honestly. i currently think we're sitting on two town spares and that both scum are in Nacho/Farkran/Chemist. if Amrun is scum she isn't trying to be spared and if Bingle is scum then i don't think Replica would be having quite as tough a time making that happen.
i'm aware going for mislynches is as valid a strategy, so no need to bring that up. reexamining Amrun is lower priority than Nacho but probably easier. Bingle and Amrun are never aligned but i imagine that's really obvious.

This actually seems like a really good take from Chara, tbh.

[Bingle]

Let's see who puts their money where their mouth is.

HURT: Chem

Also,

HEAL: Bingle

Literally the only spare vote I'm willing to consider today, and we shouldn't be doing it anyway, but there's no reason for me not to sit on it.

[Bingle]

Asriel Dreemurr ----------------------- (4) Nachomamma8, Amrun, Sujimichi, Chara

My working assumption is that this list contains exactly one scum. Why?

[Bingle]

Bingle: why is Chemist your favourite out of those three?

Mostly? I'm interested in who among all the people who say they're interested in lynching Chem is actually interested in lynching Chem and who isn't.

[Bingle]

Wondering why you aren't working from there instead of going through chemist first. What makes you think people will compromise on chemist more than they would compromise on amrun? What are you going to do if chemist flips town?

Exactly 1 scum in {Asriel/Nacho/Amrun/Chara} also implies 1 scum in {Chem/Bingle/Rep(/Hectic I guess)}. I'm hard tr-ing Rep.

Do you disagree with my thought that scum doesn't doublevote a policy lurker wagon very often in micros?

Also, if Chem flips town, I reevaluate with the dual flips and an additional wagon and come at tomorrow looking to lynch and assuming I get flipped before endgame.

[Bingle]

How is Chem scum with Nacho/Amrun/Chara though? Asriel was their target, not part of the wagon

Why would scum!chem with a non-Asriel partner allow a spare instead of pushing a mislynch on town!Asriel? I mean, Chemist was sparing Asriel back in d1. Towncred is ok, but why would you allow the day to end in a spare that is not your partner when you can push a better alternative without looking scummy?

How is Chem scum with Nacho/Amrun/Chara though? Asriel was their target, not part of the wagon

What?

I've explained why I think Asriel (you) isn't scum with Nacho/Amrun/Chara. I just explained why I don't think Nacho/Amrun/Chara are scum together.

If you're arguing Chem would have pushed the lynch through, why? Burning towncred by 180-ing on his lurker stance to get a low value lurker lynch through would be pretty dumb there, tbh. If you're arguing he should have done so after you replaced in that would have been the opposite.

This was still early game, and most semi competent players aren't going to be looking to get any mislynch that comes around but rather to set up their team for townreads. I find it unlikely that both scum would commit to a lurker push like that, so assuming I would think that someone is town because they're not aligning themselves perfectly with the reads of other potential players is at the very least batshit.

Similarly, why would vanity sparing the lurker wagon not be a scum move if he thought the wagon would flip on town? Being publicly against a town wagon seems like exactly the kind of thing scum would want. Or is the insistence that the Asriel wagon wouldn't have gone through without Chem's support?

[Bingle]

Fark, I don't think you can manage a Nacho lynch this close to the deadline. Of the options of sparing me, lynching you and lynching Chem which do you prefer?

[Bingle]

Jesus fuck, that’s going to happen, isn’t it?

Yeah, probably.

[Bingle]

Rep, what do you think about my thoughts that the only viable Farkran partners are you/Chem and thus I would vastly prefer to lynch Chem?

[Bingle]

(I don't think Fark/Rep makes sense anymore even if Rep is somehow scum, btw, because turbobussing this close to deadline with functional whiteflag is bonkers.)

[Bingle]

"I propose that if we amputate Chemist1422's limbs, he will become immobile, and that will change him from having mostly Psyche genetics to having exactly Psyche genetics. Chemist1422's limbs are healthy so they will be hard to remove but one of the first rules of the code of doctors is 'Do Arm', and 'Do Leg' is eighth or so. Then Chemist1422 can be our replacement dummy. The funny thing is that when we pick sides for kickball Chemist1422 will go from last pick to last pick." Bingle did a strange sort of laugh at its own joke that was totally unvocalized, but it sprayed spurt of lava out of its crater in a way that was clearly a humored reaction.

Also, clearly pops supports cutting off limbs, because I'm a doctor.

[Bingle]

@Farkran: If you're the sole sane townie, why are you alive?

@Amrun: If I'm scum, why are all of the people defending me dying?

[Bingle]

Because literally nobody is listening to me, and i have been the most voted player since forever? If you were scum, who would you kill?

Amrun.

Amrun is the only person who has seriously expressed a desire to lynch me.

If Nacho was scum with Hectic, why does he shoot Psyche over the one person who is standing in his way? It just doesn't make sense. Psyche was townreading them both pretty vocally iirc.

[Bingle]

Bingle-------------------------------------- (1) Bingle

Wait, wtf?

I'm pretty sure this is wrong.

(I may or may not have forgotten about this game while fighting Kerset in TM, but that's over now.)

[Bingle]

@Bingle: in what world would scum kill Fakran? Explain it to me.

Still waiting

Why would a Hectic/Chara or Hectic/Nacho team not kill Farkran over Psyche?

Farkran was the only reason Hectic was even a difficult spare, and in either of those cases the remaining player is in a good enough position to weather the upheaval. Not top townread, not top scumread. It also didn't seem like anyone had any real idea who would die N2.

I'm mostly curious about why Fark has been tunneling aggressively for the entire game without any real sign of reevaluation.

[Bingle]

Bingle-------------------------------------- (1) Bingle

Wait, wtf?

I'm pretty sure this is wrong.

(I may or may not have forgotten about this game while fighting Kerset in TM, but that's over now.)

You know what you did.

HURT: popsofctown

[Bingle]

Not game related, but does anyone remember how to make doublehurt tags? I can't seem to find the tags.

[Bingle]

@Bingle: who is scum?

Not sure, tbh. My gut still says it's you, but I'm disengaged enough to need to think before being comfortable with your lynch.

[Bingle]

I ask that because two thoughts. 1) if I'm in Psyche's shoes I'd much rather have town sort out the Nacho/Farkran debacle and shoot Bingle as opposed to the other way around and 2) if we lynch Bingle (who replica was pretty harshly townreading) and he flips town then I'll feel pretty dumb. Would not feel as dumb if Bingle flipped town after we got a scum lynch.

Why do you assume Psyche would shoot me? He was tr-ing me just as hard as Rep when he died. Hell, that's the most cohesive reasoning I can think of for me being scum (Psyche not being likely to shoot me so I pushed hard for the lynch yesterday).

[Bingle]

But are we really all just cool with Bingle ignoring this thread?

Yeah, my bad. That was unintentional. I got asked to review a couple of games and I got a little sucked in with those and forgot I had a non F3 game to pay attention to.

[Bingle]

Amrun/Chara
Chara/Nacho

This tells me to lynch Chara, and I don't know how I feel about that.

[Bingle]

Farkran/Bingle has been my pick for scumteam since before either of them occupied those slots.

If I am town who is Fark's partner?

[Bingle]

Because he’s a likely mislynch with that comp.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Farkran have very little suspicion aimed at him on D2?

Sure, no one was really following his logic, which is a valid point, but No one really wanted him lynched iirc.

[Bingle]

Yeah, I checked. Hectic, Chara, Farkran and Replica were the only people who voted Farkran D2. You wanted my blood and no one else's all day and thought Farkran was crazy but town. Nacho was tr-ing him fairly hard as of 1307-1316 and he wanted Chem's blood. I was tr-ing him. Psyche tr-d Fark over Hectic as of 1394 to the point he was considering sparing him.

Hell, a big portion of Replica's stated desire to spare me was to remove a town voice that was tr-ing Farkran.

I don't think D2 scumteam looks at Farkran and goes: "Gotta keep this around, it's a mislynch." if he's right about them, and I'm fascinated by this narrative that he looked like an obvious lynch before yesterday. If 2/3 of the people looking to lynch him are scum, that's even more ridiculous, imo.

[Bingle]

Do you really think yesterday with the crossbus from Nacho/Farkran is likely if they're S/S in a white flag situation? Do you think Nacho goes hard for a lurkerbuddy policy lynch when there is a significant lurkerpool?

Do you think Farkran spends all of D2 arguing a Hectic/Chara team if he's scum with Chara? Do you think Chara goes for a Farkran policy bus?

[Bingle]

Like, from my PoV the towniest thing you've done today is go after me over Farkran, because Farkran gets much harder to lynch if I flip town. Nacho did basically the opposite, and it's giving me massive :eyebrows:.

[Bingle]

I don’t think Farkran was going to be lynched on day 2, but I absolutely think I, personally, could have rallied a farkran mislynch at some point in the game as scum, as PoE narrows. Like I think it would be easy to do and competent scum would think so as well, though I could be wrong. I think any scum we have here is competent, so... I mean they could have a different perspective than me, but they’re definitely competent.

Sure. So could I. It would be crazy easy to lynch him from the seat of someone who already suspect him. The question is why he lives if it’s specifically Hectic and either nacho or Chara.

If that’s the case, the pressure on Fark amped up immediately after there was only one scum in the thread. It’s not impossible that Psyche was killed by someone looking to mislynch Fark, sure, just as it’s not impossible that scum killed him to make me easier to lynch. Scum did choose to kill him over Replica though, at the very least and I’m wondering why that didn’t change his thoughts.

[Bingle]

TL;DR i still think Hectic is scum and that's why you do not understand that it's pointless to look for scum associatives in the current alive list.

There are 6 names to sort:

Me you nacho Amrun Chara Hectic. That is 100% a small enough pool to associative hunt, especially with a white flag day.

FMPOV, Farkran is really unlikely scum with anyone, while it can be argued in scum with pretty much anyone except Amrun fairly convincingly because of the low impact of my slot. We have, functionally, 2 mislynches remaining before we need to hit scum. (The lynch today and the vig tonight.) If my green flip is pseudoclearing for Farkran then people who are town and want Farkran dead should be trying to lynch me. Fark flipping green does shit for my slot. I could easily be a nacho or Chara or even Hectic partner here. And this isn’t really news, I brought it up yesterday and no one really disputed the conclusions past a vague “well maybe you’re wrong”.

It’s pretty much the whole reason I wanted a chem lynch. I wasn’t sold that he was scum, but lynching him narrowed down the association pool majorly, to make today easier.

[Bingle]

This was his post on his matter at the time. What point are you getting at right now, Bingle?

I’m trying to pull him out of a tunnel, because saying “Hectic is scum!” over and over isn’t helping things fmpov. What are you trying to do?

[Bingle]

while it can be argued I’m scum with pretty much anyone except Amrun fairly convincingly because of the low impact of my slot.

FTFM

[Bingle]

This was his post on his matter at the time. What point are you getting at right now, Bingle?

I’m trying to pull him out of a tunnel, because saying “Hectic is scum!” over and over isn’t helping things fmpov. What are you trying to do?

Sort you. I’m liking your recent posts because everything hates me.

If it helps I don’t think you have to. I don’t think I make it through 3v2 if we play this smart.

I am feeling significantly better about you today though.

[Bingle]

@Nacho can you rebut your earlier towncase and give me a viable not me Fark partner suggestion?

WHY FAKRAN IS FRIEND:

1)

In Fakran's opening, I really like how he was fairly scattered and combative and took a number of shots to the wall that obviously weren't popular - in particular, I liked how he went from calling Amrun his strongest townread to immediately attacking her two posts down the road (and thought that him getting concerned about her interacting with her top scumread was a reasonable line of inquiry and demonstrates him handling a bunch of different possibilities all at once). It's possible for scum to come out swinging on all cylinders in the way that he did here, but it's a remarkably risky move to take close to deadline since he's basically taken a swing at everyone who's anyone all at once - the level of conviction that resulted in "even a lynch on me is better than sparing!" is remarkably ballsy without solid theory to stand behind.

I like this post wrt Amrun from Farkran, and have based pieces of my read on Replica based on this reasoning exactly. If Farkran is scum I'm not sure he offers a townread like that which is so hard to back away from.

I think that this post is also a really weird and emotionally manipulative one if Farkran is scum here. Farkran has his feelings hurt a bit by Suji calling him "detrimental to town or a strong Mafia leader", and uses that as leverage to jab back and say that Suji wasn't acting like themselves.

It's also crazy hard for me to see something like this meta engagement bit and then launching into Replica being near certain because he spoke about the danger of people sheeping his vote and wagons creating coming from scum in a million billion years - again, that's sticking your neck way way out for absolutely no reason if scum - which of course comes in the middle of a bunch of Farkran prodding at various groups moving together (Hectic spare being equal to Farkran fight, etc) - there's just a lot of shit going on here if Farkran is scum - a ton of effort put into "showing progressions and showing that he's willing to push reads" but not a lot of effort into an actual scum agenda.

Loved the salty response here - that shit was pure.

Farkran coming out with guns ablazing against you/Replica/Hectic here makes no fucking sense if Farkran is scum here; there's definitely diminishing returns associated with being townread for being crazy in this setup (not likely to get spared if you go too far off the ranch). And I can go on if you'd like but the whole read is along the same lines - Fakran is extraordinarily genuine and taking a very very absurd track if scum, Fakran also has pretty excellent progressions on reads if scum and also tends to run through a large # of possible scum worlds all at once that surface now and again in his ISO. Fakran is almost certainly town.

[Bingle]

I’m not saying that Hectic isn’t scum. I’m saying sorting with the foregone conclusion that he is is counterproductive.

FMPOV, you’re completely ignoring cases like nacho/Chara Chara/Amrun and me/anyone. While I don’t particularly benefit from the third, I could use additional insight on the others.

Pretend, for an IRL day, that Hectic is flipped town. What does that mean for your solve? You’ve talked at length about Hectic scum and I engaged with that, even if we did ultimately reach different conclusions. The least you can do is share your thoughts on the rest of the players individually.

[Bingle]

And, FWIW, tunneled doesn’t necessarily mean wrong. It means tunneled.

[Bingle]

Amrun/Nacho where Amrun is humming over a Nacho lynch doesn't exactly seem likely either, though then you can say the same thing about Amrun/Farkran. and that's without considering that distancing is obviously a thing so i shouldn't be reading into the offhand comments Amrun has just made as much as her big pushes throughout the game.

The big difference between Nacho/Amrun and Fark/Amrun is Amrun sitting on lurkerAsriel D1, imo.

[Bingle]

is saying "these players aren't a team" the townhunting equivalent of teamhunting?

Yes.

[Bingle]

Also wouldn't this team just powerlynch Nacho right now?

You mean like how Amrun and Chara are both considering a Nacho lynch right now? I mean... It doesn't make them autoscum, there's legitimate reasons behind their considerations in my opinion, but you kinda just described what's actually happening.

[Bingle]

pedit: sure, i'll get back to you in a minute. I feel like i have already explained my reasons several times here though, so if you have any specific questions about what i am potentially missing from my solve, please go ahead and ask. When i say "assume town!Hectic", that's... pretty much what you asked me to, it's like if somehow Hectic has already been flipped or pops came here slipping Hectic's rolepm

The difference is that I'm asking you to assume town Hectic because you've talked at length about Hectic teams and rehashing those doesn't really give me more info to work with.

I'm not assuming town Hectic, because Hectic teams are honestly a large blindspot, but I've already got access to your reasoning there.

[Bingle]

Who do i consider as my top scumread right now, in your opinion?

My guess to your individual reads is Hect > Nacho > Chara.

[Bingle]

Bingle
Fark
Amrun/Hectic
Chara
Nacho

is my current headspace, but the bottom three rows have been very fluid this phase. I also don't think Amrun's me/Fark pairing read is unreasonable, which is honestly a lot of why I'm feeling better about her. Objectively, it DOES look like I'm defending a buddy the way I'm going about defending Fark, and I understand an individual scumread on him as well.

Anyway, I'm pretty stalled out on logic until Nacho gets back to answer to my questions. If anyone has questions I'm happy to respond and I'll be available ish for comment.

[Bingle]

I’m not sure where Amrun’s concern about being shot comes from. As of the end of day 2, I think psyches reads mostly pointed at Chara/hectic vig, with an outside chance of Amrun, assuming he didn’t change his mind post death.

I did find Nachos assumption I would be shot to be very intriguing though.

[Bingle]

I think that you and Farkran made a mistake by shooting Psyche when you did. I think Farkran misread his confidence level in those Farkran/Bingle townreads but I think with Psyche having hard townreads on 4/5 of the living means that he's going to reanalyze and I don't think that process is going to end up looking too good for you.

So you're going to assume that Psyche is going to shoot me on the basis that you think you can guess how psyche would reevaluate using information that neither of us have in addition to the information readily available in the thread when people are saying at large that I've been acting more town recently than before?

[Bingle]

because Farkran gets much harder to lynch if I flip town.

I don't think this is true at all but I'd love to see you try to explain it.

There's not a viable partner for him other than you

partially because interactions and partially because I'm not willing to flip on those Amrun/Chara townreads and don't really see any reason to do so now - feeling an odd sense of clarity when staring death in the face (which is also why I would much rather see Farkran/Nacho today as opposed to you - dead town Nacho's word seems to be much more trustworthy than one who is living near endgame).

:thorface:

[Bingle]

EBWOP

because Farkran gets much harder to lynch if I flip town.

I don't think this is true at all but I'd love to see you try to explain it.

There's not a viable partner for him other than you

partially because interactions and partially because I'm not willing to flip on those Amrun/Chara townreads and don't really see any reason to do so now - feeling an odd sense of clarity when staring death in the face (which is also why I would much rather see Farkran/Nacho today as opposed to you - dead town Nacho's word seems to be much more trustworthy than one who is living near endgame).

:thorface:

[Bingle]

We need to consolidate on me or Nacho here because we're down to about 50 hours. Nacho just said that he doesn't think Farkran gets harder to lynch in the wake of me flipping town, and also that there is no viable partner for Farkran other than me. Those are mutually exclusive stances. If you think Bingle/Fark is the team, Bingle lynch in that team is just as game furthering as a Farkran lynch. By Nacho's own logic of the only Farkran team that makes sense is a Fark/Bingle team, I should be the first lynch, but he wants to lynch Farkran first because :shrug:

If I were to flip scum, you would as a team have 3 flips in {Hectic/Farkran/Nacho/Chara/Amrun} and Farkran is one of those 3 100% of the time. The catharsis of a scum lynch would be exactly the same. Nacho's readstrength would be irrelevant in the lynching of Farkran because you all want to do that eventually anyway. And Nacho is good enough that he knows all of this.

Conversely, you kill me first and I flip town: Farkran is suddenly off the table (or at least not resting with his head in the guillotine) which means that it's WAY harder to get a mislynch on him. Now there's 3 flips to hit two scum in that same pool of 5. Still the same amount of town control, but Farkran isn't an obvious mislynch.

And here's the rub: You can trust me when I say that lynching me over Farkran is just better play to be telling the truth, because either you're directly advancing town's wincondition anyway by offering a scum lynch or I'm town and I genuinely believe it. I could be wrong, sure, but you'd KNOW that my arguments are genuine.

HURT: Nacho

L-1

[Bingle]

Not completely unknown

Who are you?

Also, good to see you again Prism!

[Bingle]

Not completely unknown

Who are you?

Also, good to see you again Prism!

Oh my god wait I can finally say it

When you said Farkran was too batshit/taking too insane of an angle to be scum I wanted to reach through the screen and

smack you

wag my finger to express my disappointment, because high effort insane town was exactly the shit you successfully pulled in Dystopia

You can’t hold me accountable for realizing things I’ve done are possible. I do lots of impossible things, like balance $2.50 in pennies on their sides in concentric circles or hit the high note in I believe in a thing called love by the darkness without any form of chemical assistance.