White Flag - TM2020

Begins January 2nd, 2020
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Post Post #4223 (isolation #800) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:55 am

Post by Auro »

In post 2521, Donempire wrote:
In post 2517, Auro wrote:Dong, how about you sell me on:
1. Why you're town - is your play here different from your scumgames?
2. Who's scum in your proposed lynch pool?
1 - no
2 - I want to say
cheeky/dann. I dont think gobs scum
there and
i dont suspect you as much
as i do them.
In post 2582, Donempire wrote:Ceph isnt scum...

The possible scumlist is down to
Auro/Gob/Dann/Dong
. I dont think dong is scum.

VOTE: Auro

This climate is perfect for scum to thrive. Theres chaos and no clear town leader and it seems like the FOS of everyone changes at a moments pace. Hopkirk/Former/BB/Ceph scum and you would expect them to come back to the thread to take control. You dont need to sell me on any one of them - they arent scum, pure and simple. we need to whittle the suspect list down from here.
We won. If you want, lynch me, we have mislynched. I'd rather have a clean victory but if you have doubts in your mind or think im not certain of it, you can take me.

(Mod saying no daytalk is making me retract my solve slightly)
wtf is this progression?
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Post Post #4225 (isolation #801) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:59 am

Post by Auro »

I mean, I'd be the push in LyLo, not FF/BB
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Post Post #4227 (isolation #802) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:19 am

Post by Auro »

Town!Dann eliminates {FF/Auro} for you?
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Post Post #4228 (isolation #803) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:29 am

Post by Auro »

I've corrected the calculations for you, assuming Dann's in the scumpool:

You can clear Dong/BB as well. And clear Dann/Dong as well. The unique pairings left are:

Gobbles|{Dong,Dann,FF,BB}
Dong|{FF, Auro}
Dann|{Auro}

4 potential partners for Gobbles, 3 for Dong, 2 for FF/Me/Dann.
Shows Gobbles as the superior lynch.
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Post Post #4229 (isolation #804) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:31 am

Post by Auro »

Add FF|Auro to that and it'll bring us up to 3 unique each, still, Gobbles is superior
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Post Post #4230 (isolation #805) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:33 am

Post by Auro »

Town!Auro flip should bring it to

Gobbles|{Dong, Dann, FF, BB}
Dong|{FF}

So my flip should also mean Gobbles is optimal lynch purely from a teams perspective.
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Post Post #4235 (isolation #806) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:24 am

Post by Auro »

I think wagon analysis that way will be inconclusive, in isolation scum can choose to be anywhere. I think the NKs were due to the respective slots being obvtown, mostly.

Dann/BB makes sense with that + Dann's inability to explain a townread beyond gut + Dann's rushed feel to the Dong wagon, BUT, it makes little sense for Molla to defend Gobbles that much and start pushing me instead.
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Post Post #4236 (isolation #807) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:29 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4231, CheekyTeeky wrote:Yeah I don't think you would be scum with both NSG and FF and I'd trust Danns read of you more knowing he's town.
Well, to be fair a Dong flip should also eliminate FF/Auro then because (1) would still hold and Dann's town if FF/Auro is the solve :P
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Post Post #4239 (isolation #808) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:44 am

Post by Auro »

He risks it becoming Auro vs Molla instead though, which it did become.
Like safer/easier strat is to just let me power through and maybe lightly defend Gob, prolly start calling me scum if Gob flips town (like how he alleges I'm scum if Dong flips town), Gob flipping would make an attack on me easier in LyLo.

Remember that LyLo will probably be a 1v1. You should definitely not cast the first vote if alive. I doubt BB|Gobbles would be the 1v1 votes anyway, with both of them townreading the other independent of flips in {Auro,Dann,Dong}.
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Post Post #4242 (isolation #809) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:56 am

Post by Auro »

I mean with me saying I think he's a good lynch if I flip, and that between Dong/Molla Molla should be lynched, etc.
I think Gobbles has
far
higher scum equity than Dann.
I think Molla would still be a superior lynch in LyLo to Dann even if he were scum? You only need to lynch one scum for the win.
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Post Post #4245 (isolation #810) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:07 am

Post by Auro »

... I lost track.
Okay, so you think that a Gobbles town flip would mean more resulting Dann teams than BB teams (who can only plausibly be paired with Dann), Dann's the superior lynch; so although Gobbles has more possible partners today you'd rather have Dann's flip now. Right?
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Post Post #4246 (isolation #811) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:15 am

Post by Auro »

While that works if Dann has ~ scum equity as the rest of the pool, I disagree because the reasons for Gobb scum are pretty plain to see, and there are a lot of reasons for Dann!town individually.
Weighing this with individual scum equity, Gobs is a much superior lynch anyway.
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Post Post #4248 (isolation #812) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:28 am

Post by Auro »

Wait I'm curious as to why you clear Auro/Dong? I am, well, defending him now right?
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Post Post #4250 (isolation #813) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:31 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4247, CheekyTeeky wrote:If Dann is town just hit gobbles tomorrow.
If Dann flips you'd still have to convince the town in {FF/Dong/Molla} to hit Gobbles over me tomorrow, look at how much FF and Dong are locked in that I'm scum.
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Post Post #4251 (isolation #814) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:33 am

Post by Auro »

I think I can work with your plan, if you can get FF/Dong to get off their asses for the LyLo play.
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Post Post #4254 (isolation #815) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:38 am

Post by Auro »

Get FF/Dong to sign up for that
Lol I had tons of justification for the Dann read, subjective disagreements over details doesn't equal lack of "real justification"
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Post Post #4255 (isolation #816) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:39 am

Post by Auro »

That doesn't matter
Dong//FF's unlikely to not lynch me in LyLo, if you rhink I'd be town then you have to work with them for the win
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Post Post #4257 (isolation #817) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:47 am

Post by Auro »

He's voiced paranoia of me.
I have a very tiny amount of paranoia but the possible partner I saw him with (Gob) I wanted anyway.

You know Dong/FF won't listen to me.
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Post Post #4259 (isolation #818) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:51 am

Post by Auro »

You can't just escape responsibility if you want to win, Cheeky. We need to work to get FF/Dong not to gamethrow. Same applies even if you want to flip me instead.
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Post Post #4261 (isolation #819) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:03 am

Post by Auro »

There are a lot of things I want to say but prolly best if said later.
Well, then I'm not on board with Dann lynch because FF/Dong aren't you and they're not going to come to the same conclusion on Dann flip. And I said the same applies to my flip as well, achieve town cohesion for both hypotheticals. FF is likelier to listen to you.
If you can up win% chances you should, that's what I'm saying

Otherwise I'm not up for a Dann lynch simply because I get lynched next anyway, nothing I say will work, if people could be trusted to form those opinions then they can now / would've already. Gob is then best lynch.
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Post Post #4262 (isolation #820) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:14 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4260, CheekyTeeky wrote:Lol I'm not going to hard defend you when I don't even know if you're town.
I don't know why you'd rather trust Dong and FF's reasoning over your own in case of either flip in {Dann/Auro}. Look at Dong's and FF's tunnels on me. The chance that they'd flip their read because it would for
you
is quite low.

A big factor in your play, Cheeky, is that you seem to think everyone behaves like you as town.

That line of thinking allows you to "trust" Dong and FF in LyLo.

That line of thinking makes you question my slot when I "calmly" react to your "batshit scumminess".

That line of thinking makes you question my slot when I show little paranoia about Dann.
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Post Post #4263 (isolation #821) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:31 am

Post by Auro »

If you want to win, mafia isn't just about getting yourself townread, cobbling together a solve and "hoping" everyone comes to the same conclusion while you watch from "mafia heaven"...
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Post Post #4264 (isolation #822) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:36 am

Post by Auro »

Eh ignore all the above posts, actually. Do whatever you want to.
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Post Post #4267 (isolation #823) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:05 am

Post by Auro »

I still think you're conf biasing your Molla read. You said you'd revisit the contexts. Any result?
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Post Post #4277 (isolation #824) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:13 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4265, Dannflor wrote:their content is still atrocious and there aren’t good reasons that I’ve seen to town read them.
The thing is, Dann, I think Gobbles' content is also atrocious compared to his potential, and to a smaller extent Molla's too. I've explained how being a "voice of reason" while pushing their agenda is terribly easy for them; going for the most atrocious will not win.

It makes it difficult, but yeah, still has to be sorted.
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Post Post #4279 (isolation #825) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:14 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4272, Dannflor wrote:unknown sync tell
I've never read about such a tell, I'm curious, what is a "sync tell"? I'm guessing it's not mindmelding with Molla especially with his Auro+Dann or Auro+Gobbles solve...
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Post Post #4281 (isolation #826) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:23 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4274, Dannflor wrote:Is that a real read Gobble

Have you been reading my posts
Either of our flips can confirm the other.
Dong town flip though allows for the Auro+Dann team push in LyLo.
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Post Post #4282 (isolation #827) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:39 am

Post by Auro »

As an exercise, please try to gather evidence against a Molla+Gobble pairing.
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Post Post #4283 (isolation #828) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:44 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4265, Dannflor wrote:there aren’t good reasons that I’ve seen to town read them
Lack of viable partners is a good reason though.
Gobbles has more potential partners.
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Post Post #4286 (isolation #829) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:49 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4275, gobbledygook wrote:Look at his interactions with the NSG wagon, look at his play today.
If you truly believe I'm scum given Dong's town, and also given Dong's play today is primarily pushing me, I really doubt it should be very scummy from your PoV.
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Post Post #4288 (isolation #830) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:58 am

Post by Auro »

He can plausibly get away with just saying Dong Dann, Dong Auro because you're holding him to super low standards.
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Post Post #4293 (isolation #831) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:05 am

Post by Auro »

Kinda funny that Gobble argues he's a shit town player to justify his reads when he's not, Molla argues he's a shit scum player so I have to think he's obvtown, and also argues that I'm a godly scum player so anything I say can be faked and there's no reason I should be town.
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Post Post #4323 (isolation #832) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:46 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4319, Dannflor wrote:I shouldn't have tried to kill Hopkirk
The Hopkirk lynch was pretty damaging to town, yeah... He was posting better content than FF/Dong at least.
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Post Post #4326 (isolation #833) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:52 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4311, CheekyTeeky wrote:Please tell Auro you'll lynch gobbles in Lylo so he can vote Dann for the win
I still won't vote Dann myself, I'm sure the others will, though.
Optimal strat is still Gobbles lynch followed by FF I think.
I'll probably instavote Gobbles/Molla in LyLo.
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Post Post #4338 (isolation #834) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:59 pm

Post by Auro »

Fighting now is useless, please work together. :P
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Post Post #4341 (isolation #835) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:02 pm

Post by Auro »

Well, to be fair you can acknowledge that someone has better reads than you in general and then BoP them in retrospect.
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Post Post #4344 (isolation #836) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:04 pm

Post by Auro »

I think both of you are going in the wrong way quoting Gobbles'/Dann's readslists. They simply have the poorest (by play this game) players at the bottom, and those are the players you'd expect to see carried into late game anyway.
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Post Post #4351 (isolation #837) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:14 pm

Post by Auro »

Keep this argument for post game, focus on winning now.
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Post Post #4354 (isolation #838) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:19 pm

Post by Auro »

I never said I'd vote him, I said I'm OK with the plan in that I won't fight it.
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Post Post #4356 (isolation #839) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:27 pm

Post by Auro »

Can I refuse to answer that right now? Especially if I'm the one going into LyLo. I have a few tricks up my sleeve to make LyLo difficult for them ;)
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Post Post #4359 (isolation #840) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:29 pm

Post by Auro »

Team Mafia is supposed to be >average proficiency because you have four people in each slot, effectively, so this gamestate is pretty sad for me.
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Post Post #4361 (isolation #841) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:32 pm

Post by Auro »

So you've changed your mind on both Gobbles and Molla?
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Post Post #4365 (isolation #842) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:38 pm

Post by Auro »

If Dann is scum, I'll very truly fear his play from the next game.
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Post Post #4366 (isolation #843) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:39 pm

Post by Auro »

Are you finishing your readup, Dann? I think your reads should be reinforced with D3?
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Post Post #4373 (isolation #844) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:43 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4367, CheekyTeeky wrote:This game should be to a higher standard so I doubt scum!dann plays this well without a team behind him. Besides he's become sloppier with his play today. D1, D2 were particularly good scum days for him.
He didn't play "this well" in all aspects though, he would've had to deliberately make suboptimal NKs and pushes to pocket at most two players, which is poor pay-off.
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Post Post #4379 (isolation #845) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:50 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4374, Dannflor wrote:If I go solely by my own reads and try to force a lynch I think I'm just gonna ML again
Still, I'll ask you to finish reading up and give me more evidence for/against various reads!
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Post Post #4381 (isolation #846) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:51 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4376, CheekyTeeky wrote:The NKs were optimal but I'd rather argue that post game. Someone effing hammer Dann.
Not till he finishes and we gain proper consensus and also 2. We clarify that Dong and FF won't screw up LyLo. One vote on me would be enough to lose the game. Cheeky you're proposing a dangerous strategy on the chance that Dann is scum, just remember. It's going to make winning a LOT more difficult than simply lynching Gob right now.
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Post Post #4394 (isolation #847) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:05 pm

Post by Auro »

Cheeky, I'm arguing that your premise of Dann scum is simply very low probability.
I'm not saying you shouldn't strategize taking all possibilities but premising them on a paranoia read damages chances a lot.
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Post Post #4402 (isolation #848) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:08 pm

Post by Auro »

FF does consistently give genuine feels in spite of his poor play.
@Cheeky it is a paranoia-based read. Have you ever townread Dann before?
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Post Post #4408 (isolation #849) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:10 pm

Post by Auro »

Reserving a very big rant at Cheeky's play for post game. :P
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Post Post #4411 (isolation #850) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:10 pm

Post by Auro »

You forget the case, Cheeky, where Molla 1v1s someone - it's LyLo. If Molla votes Dong, and there's no quickhammer, I drive a Molla lynch.
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Post Post #4413 (isolation #851) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:11 pm

Post by Auro »

If scum doesn't vote, then I cast the first vote... But I'm not telling who, between Molla and Gob.
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Post Post #4420 (isolation #852) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:16 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4415, CheekyTeeky wrote:Auro Ali thinks you're a moron.
Why?
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Post Post #4422 (isolation #853) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:17 pm

Post by Auro »

You stopped your read through in the middle I think? I'd like your analysis later into the game.
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Post Post #4423 (isolation #854) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:17 pm

Post by Auro »

I kinda feel sad I'm being called a moron, and blamed for stuff like "justifying Dann read without real justification"..:(
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Post Post #4426 (isolation #855) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:19 pm

Post by Auro »

Thanks <3
I think we should Hydra sometime in the future :D
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Post Post #4427 (isolation #856) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:20 pm

Post by Auro »

If Dann flips, there's a non zero probability that I vote Cheeky btw
Just saying
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Post Post #4429 (isolation #857) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:22 pm

Post by Auro »

He has two very competent teammates in Reundo and Davesaz, I wish they were utilized more. I don't blame FF for it though, if they were absent and not helping.
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Post Post #4434 (isolation #858) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:25 pm

Post by Auro »

Well, I did read the parts you paraphrased! Aww :D
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Post Post #4436 (isolation #859) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:26 pm

Post by Auro »

Should we be worried that Pops and Ali support her play?
Should we be worried that Ali thinks *I* am moronic this game?
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Post Post #4447 (isolation #860) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:39 pm

Post by Auro »

If you guys are flipping Dann, you better show him why you're town Molla, with reasons apart from "my scum play is too shit"
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Post Post #4454 (isolation #861) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:44 pm

Post by Auro »

If Cheeky's scum, it means she deliberately acts very irrational to get townread instead of playing like town - kinda meh.
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Post Post #4459 (isolation #862) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:47 pm

Post by Auro »

I think we can wait out for Ank's input too perhaps?
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Post Post #4461 (isolation #863) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:48 pm

Post by Auro »

Cheeky, you accuse me of having "no real justification" in my reads when I thoroughly explained them
Can you tell me your team's justfication in Dann scum?
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Post Post #4463 (isolation #864) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:50 pm

Post by Auro »

In case they kill me for some reason, Cheeky shouldn't get paranoid that scum is framing Gobbles/Molla.
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Post Post #4464 (isolation #865) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:50 pm

Post by Auro »

Dong shouldn't yolo instavote in LyLo. Gobbles/Molla should either vote first, or if they don't, I should.
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Post Post #4467 (isolation #866) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:51 pm

Post by Auro »

Cheeky, why doesn't Ali think Dann is a moron if I'm actually pocketing him?
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Post Post #4468 (isolation #867) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:52 pm

Post by Auro »

That is true. I'm letting paranoia creep in, when it shouldn't.
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Post Post #4472 (isolation #868) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:54 pm

Post by Auro »

I think it's fair to assume I don't actually

If I make it to LyLo you have people like Dong who are very tunneled on me, and FF who I'm not sure will actually evaluate on logical grounds.
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Post Post #4474 (isolation #869) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:56 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4471, Dannflor wrote:Okay sorry Ali is not bad but e is wrong in this instance
I think calling me a moron is pretty uncalled for when I'm putting in this much effort, and none of my reasoning is irrational on an objective level, and all my reads about the flips so far have been correct
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Post Post #4479 (isolation #870) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:13 pm

Post by Auro »

Would also like to strengthen FF townread with your help
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Post Post #4485 (isolation #871) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:29 pm

Post by Auro »

I would be so happy if I was NK'd on a personal level
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Post Post #4487 (isolation #872) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:30 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4483, Dannflor wrote:there's a distinct carelessness in his ISO that just doesn't come from scum a lot of the time
Yeah I think this was part of my FF townread as well. I've been fooled by dumbtells before but this seems different.
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Post Post #4490 (isolation #873) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:31 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4486, Dannflor wrote:there is a deep perverted part of me that hopes you are somehow scum and win the game
If I'm scum I wouldn't have set things up to this position though :P
Even my posting style is a lot... smoother as scum I believe. I feel like when I'm actually trying to gamesolve I come off as scummy for some reason; when I'm scum I can simply focus on looking good.
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Post Post #4491 (isolation #874) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:33 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4488, Dannflor wrote:then someone like FF gets mislynched and scum win
I can imagine someone pushing Cheeky and then her crying about how she was the mislynch bait all along and voting herself :P
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Post Post #4493 (isolation #875) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:35 pm

Post by Auro »

Likewise. I'd say like 1% in your case maybe. Fighting your lynch is pointless though.
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Post Post #4495 (isolation #876) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:38 pm

Post by Auro »

Meh. Cheeky and her team have enough ego to flip things over and say you were a moron for being pocketed by me. *shrug*
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Post Post #4496 (isolation #877) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:39 pm

Post by Auro »

Are you a college student, Dann?
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Post Post #4500 (isolation #878) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:02 pm

Post by Auro »

No, I haven't agreed. That's far from optimal. That's a plan I can work with to maximize town win% taking into account your play. It's by no means the optimal lynch path. Optimal lynch path right now is always Gobbles -> FF/Dong or something like that.
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Post Post #4504 (isolation #879) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:04 pm

Post by Auro »

Was just curious
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Post Post #4511 (isolation #880) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:09 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4507, CheekyTeeky wrote:The sooner you guys lynch dann the sooner this spam fest ends btw.
In post 4498, CheekyTeeky wrote:I've been pretty clear that Dann > gobbles is the optimal lynch path to end the game and Auro even agreed so I dont know why you guys are running around like headless crooks deviating yet again from Dann actually having some solid input today. Stop using me as a distraction Dann and do some work on BB.
:lol:

It's stuff like this that makes me want to believe Cheeky is in fact scum
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Post Post #4515 (isolation #881) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:11 pm

Post by Auro »

Cool with my lynch, except then Dann IC.
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Post Post #4517 (isolation #882) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:15 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4510, Dannflor wrote:@Auro, Ank said she just woke up and has to go to work. So it'll probably be a while for anything from her
Looking forward to this, it's fine if she's unable to though. I don't know if more effort is really worth it at this point.
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Post Post #4519 (isolation #883) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:17 pm

Post by Auro »

Ignore her @Dann
If I'm lynched then I was a moron in retrospect, you have more possible teams in LyLo therefore you're lynched

We lose the game. Rn we can just solve for vanity though
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Post Post #4520 (isolation #884) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:18 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 1532, gobbledygook wrote:To take a page from NSG and RC, kill the non-bussers first

VOTE: Cheeky
I kinda felt then that Gobbles was coached towards this.
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Post Post #4522 (isolation #885) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:27 pm

Post by Auro »

Oh yeah I was going to point out that the effort made into that meta read is wayyyyyyyyyyy off from his reads on you/me
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Post Post #4527 (isolation #886) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:34 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4522, Auro wrote:Oh yeah I was going to point out that the effort made into that meta read is wayyyyyyyyyyy off from his reads on you/me
Like there's 0 nuance. There's no detail from association. He says some stuff and arrives on a null read. Afterwards, a simple if->then based on Dong flip. No partner solves.
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Post Post #4529 (isolation #887) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:36 pm

Post by Auro »

Yeah I apologize if it's actually FF/Dong for not letting the Dong lynch go through.
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Post Post #4531 (isolation #888) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:39 pm

Post by Auro »

I hope Ank understands that while there wasn't good reason to townread Molla and definitely not Gobbles, it was always a better strategy to chain lynch within those 4. I can't help it that you or I were targeted because of it. That my lack of Dong hammer was game losing is actually right only if Dong is in fact scum, and there are other plausible universes.
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Post Post #4532 (isolation #889) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:41 pm

Post by Auro »

I don't regret dismantling it, and would do so if I were back in that position, moreso because I'm pretty much convinced in Gob at least and Dong could still be town. I've played with town Dong before.
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Post Post #4536 (isolation #890) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:56 pm

Post by Auro »

It's not complicated at all, working out a win path seems difficult though
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Post Post #4539 (isolation #891) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:01 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4537, Dannflor wrote:Auro -> Dann duh
Deserves a paragon nom :lol:
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Post Post #4541 (isolation #892) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:03 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 3970, Formerfish wrote:Auro are you just trying to make it seem like every slot is now back on the chopping block? I think that at some point town has to find whatever town block they can and try to work with that block. I talk about leaps of faith a lot, and I have mentioned in prior games that I fully subscribe to the Jingle method of playing games at the end of the cycle. I figure out who I would want to lose to the least and then work with them to take out the people who i really really hope are scum.

Basically if molla or cheeky are scum I wont be the one lynching the,m.
Gut towny feelz
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Post Post #4545 (isolation #893) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:08 pm

Post by Auro »

I think it's been quite useful actually. Having Dann agree with my views gives me a lot more confidence in case he flips. It gives him a better perspective in case I flip.
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Post Post #4546 (isolation #894) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:09 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4544, CheekyTeeky wrote:So I have interesting news. We are now fine lynching gobbles today.
Daaaaaamn
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Post Post #4549 (isolation #895) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:25 pm

Post by Auro »

But what about...?
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Post Post #4561 (isolation #896) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:35 pm

Post by Auro »

You mean Gob*?
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Post Post #4562 (isolation #897) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:37 pm

Post by Auro »

I personally think FF could be pressed more on the Gob read. You've also played with Gobbles town - so you guys view his meta differently. FF says he thinks Gob is town from meta experience but doesn't detail how. If FF's town, I think that once he attempts to explain or put the meta differences into words he might change his read on the slot.
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Post Post #4564 (isolation #898) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:41 pm

Post by Auro »

"Posting more gives scum info" is very unhelpful but I doubt I can carry any useful engagement with FF anyway.

Dong is still a wildcard, if he somehow magically changes his mind we get four votes on Gobbles.

Else, we'll have to fall back to lynching one of me or Dann. No Lynch wouldn't work out because we'd end up with the same gamestate except without you, with the same number of votes required and the same Auro/Dann tunnels. I think in this particular case it could actually have a higher payoff to lynch one of me/Dann.

That should be a last resort if neither of FF/Dong (or Molla if he's actually town) change their mind though.
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Post Post #4566 (isolation #899) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:43 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4563, Formerfish wrote:I did explain my meta read on Gob, i outed Mordhaus to show the many games weve played recently where his play has been the exact same as here and why i thought that meant he is town. What are you on about Auro?
I know that you outed a Hydra and know that you said there were games where his play has been the "exact same". When I say "explain", I mean talk in terms of notable characteristics from his town games that he's replicating here; and to strengthen them check that they're lacking in his scum games.
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Post Post #4567 (isolation #900) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:46 pm

Post by Auro »

I think there are more "bad things" he's done; including the random AtE post when we wagoned him, his lack of nuance in reads today, the skew in effort put to meta-townread you compared to other reads, etc.
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Post Post #4570 (isolation #901) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:50 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4569, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 4567, Auro wrote:the skew in effort put to meta-townread you compared to other reads, etc.
Why does scum!gobbles do this?
As Dann pointed out, it looks pretty much like a pocketing attempt? And the busywork in crafting that post can help give townpoints too.
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Post Post #4572 (isolation #902) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:54 pm

Post by Auro »

Gamestate wise, if you, Dann and I bloc together Dong is the only viable push they have. Dong's trajectory is purely attacking me though, he hasn't even considered a lynch option within the other three.

Kinda ballsy for FF-Dong to plan to just come into the day voting me and pushing me that strong when they know I'm on to Gobbles, they could've just wait a bit to see how things played out.
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Post Post #4573 (isolation #903) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:55 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4571, CheekyTeeky wrote:There's no need for gobbles to pocket me when I've been diverting the lynch away from him since Dunn died.
I think you've mentioned intent to kill him multiple times after Dunn died.

Pocketing you helps indirectly when you're paranoid of Auro or Dann.
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Post Post #4575 (isolation #904) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:57 pm

Post by Auro »

I think Dong/FF is not the scumteam, at least. Dong/Gobbles also isn't one. FF/Gob is possible but there reasons to believe FF is town.
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Post Post #4577 (isolation #905) » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:58 pm

Post by Auro »

Actually Dong/Molla isn't either I think, need to check~
Dong individually has a lot of scum equity but the lack of viable partners majorly makes him town or not worth lynching I think
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Post Post #4578 (isolation #906) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:03 am

Post by Auro »

That's a good question. Although lynching Dann can still make LyLo hell for a Molla/Gob team: they leave me to LyLo and have to hope that Dong/FF don't re-evaluate based on Dann's flip and final words; or they kill me and then you sheep mine and Dann's solve. It's a generally tough position to fight from IF Dong/FF begin to reevaluate.

Lynching Dong would have much higher payoff since the Auro/Dann solve would be pretty juicy to pursue at LyLo.
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Post Post #4579 (isolation #907) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:06 am

Post by Auro »

One reason I wanted you to obtain FF/Dong's assurance that they'd not vote me in LyLo was to observe Gob/Molla's reaction and see if they then hop on to a Dann/Auro lynch.
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Post Post #4584 (isolation #908) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:31 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4580, CheekyTeeky wrote:BB seemed to vehemently oppose a Dann lynch. I guess we could BoP BB on Dong?
I don't think he *opposed* it vehemently, seemed like posturing... Wasn't Dann at L-1 before and Gob hadn't voted?
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Post Post #4586 (isolation #909) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:39 am

Post by Auro »

Cheeky, if you leave both Auro/Dann alive it's likely we're pushed as the LyLo solve and I don't trust town in that set to realize otherwise; meaning the prior of a scum flip becomes more important.

Looking at today's play I don't see Dong flipping scum; versus my high degree of confidence in Gob scum and Dann affirming it after a read through.

*If* Gob flips town, oh well.
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Post Post #4588 (isolation #910) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:42 am

Post by Auro »

In post 3851, Donempire wrote:UNVOTE:
The crews all here!
What? Did this mean his teammates were pitching in, etc? Dong, explain?
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Post Post #4591 (isolation #911) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:46 am

Post by Auro »

Okay here's a case.
In post 2128, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 341, gobbledygook wrote:Ok. I am caught up. I don't think I am actually going to wall anything, I'm just going to give reads.

Town
KittyMo
Auro
Dann
Dunn
Cephrir
Hopkirk
Espeonage
Joan of Arc
DongEmpire
Formerfish
Wgeurts
NSG
Scum

You can view the Joan of Arc line as the official null line because I have no read on that slot and it is odd that others do have a read on that slot when it has two posts with no content.

Principally, the things that I am most suspect about are...

Dunn being able to extrapolate so much from a Joan of Arc vote on me. I feel like he is projecting and has entered the Death Spiral to get me killed.
NSG stating that Wgeurts was one of the three people in her town block and then not moving her vote despite having ample to time to post several more times after that fact.
Dongempire backing off Cephrir seemed like he realized he went down the wrong path trying to get people to scumread Cephrir. I also feel like Hopkirk is reaching with some of his analysis (particular when it comes to me), but he is very funny so I will townread him to keep him around longer.

I want to vote NSG because she is playing into her scum meta that I saw in Alternative 9P. I find it odd that no one else is commenting on that. It seemed like it was common knowledge across the site since other payers in that game also made that observation.

VOTE: Dongempire
Spews Cephrir town. Talks about scum NSG the most but votes Dong.
In post 343, gobbledygook wrote:I don't know, independent of her meta tell for being scum, the fact that she left her vote on wgeurts despite naming him as one of her THREE town reads seems pretty bad coming from the Paragon.
Talks about nsg, keeps vote on Dong.
In post 963, gobbledygook wrote:I feel like I want fish to be town rather than actually town reading him

VOTE: Fish
In post 1189, gobbledygook wrote:To be totally honest I would want NSG or Dong because I feel like Fish will at least contribute something in the future
Leaves vote on Fish.
In post 1261, gobbledygook wrote:Can we please just kill this

VOTE: NSG
So he switched from FF at this point finally voting NSG after saying:
In post 117, gobbledygook wrote:While we are on the topic of meta, if NSG lurks she is scum. Period.
Weird thing to bring up unprompted in RVS. Which works with the scum-know-nsg-will-lurk-and-be-bussed theory. It took Gobbles over 40 pages to vote nsg after she had been lurking the whole time and after FF's wagon stalled out/Dunn interjected.
In post 1267, T-Bone wrote:
Vote Count
northsidegal - 5
(Kittymo, Cephrir, Dunnstral, Formerfish, gobbledygook)
Formerfish - 4
(BBMolla, northsidegal, Dannflor, Espeonage)
gobbledygook - 1
(Hopkirk)

Not Voting - 3
(Auro, CheekyTeeky, Dongempire)

Activity Check - All Good!


Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)
In post 1532, gobbledygook wrote:To take a page from NSG and RC, kill the non-bussers first

VOTE: Cheeky
I'm pretty sure both gobbles and his buddy were on the nsg wagon. Hi BB. Note how he calls them "non-bussers"

Tl;dr - within the first 6 pages gobbles randomly brings up nsg lurk-scum meta. He has her at the bottom of his first reads list yet votes elsewhere and waits until >30 pages later to finally vote her as the 5th person on the wagon after Dunn attempts to shutdown FF wagon and it stalls. His reads indicated nsg was his top scumread throughout however he did not commit to voting her until a day or so from deadline. SOD2 gobbles starts voting for "nonbussers"

Now gobbles is not making any sense around Espeon continuing thre trend of his words/actions not lining up. I've played two games gobbles was in as town and I feel like he usually makes sense and is one to go with his gut whereas here he's quite lurky and passive, determining reads based on others rather than his own thoughts which again doesn't line up with him thinking his reads are >rand as town.
In post 2129, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 2084, CheekyTeeky wrote:Gobble you're terrible scum.
In post 2094, gobbledygook wrote:I mean lynch me so I can shit on you guy in the dead thread. If i was scum i would just go with an ESp lynch if i knew he was town. I think Dong has a better chance to be scum than esp. if you want to lynch him to test a gob/esp team that’s fine but might as well lynch me first if you all feel more certain about that
And wtf is this? Guess it worked for his buddy so why not.

Yes he could go with an Espe lynch which is exactly why his post RE: Espe AtE was so effing scummy. It was a positioning post hence his premises = scumread but his conclusion = townread.
I can devote some time to build a more comprehensive case on Gobbles after a few hours (I've been posting from office and I have a deadline on Monday), but I think you know my reasons on a high level anyway.
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Post Post #4592 (isolation #912) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:47 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4590, CheekyTeeky wrote:I don't think BB is his buddy. And tbh BB is scummier in isolation but I just can't not respect everyone else's townread there.
Well I don't townread him at all. Dann was, but after re-evaluating I don't think he did either. Less scummy compared to other slots but still not a townread I think.
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Post Post #4593 (isolation #913) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:50 am

Post by Auro »

Can you show me what discounts a Molla-Gobbles team? They are pursuing a common agenda overall, have taken mildly different stances on things like Dann lynch; Molla gave some reasons Gob could be scum but has been defending him when Gob's actually in danger. The constant appeals to create graphs would've been scummy if there was no daytalk, but the presence of daytalk makes me wonder why Molla would ask in game thread instead of the PT.
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Post Post #4596 (isolation #914) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:54 am

Post by Auro »

I'm afraid it's the same if Dong flips town, don't you think?
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Post Post #4608 (isolation #915) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:30 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4604, CheekyTeeky wrote:I've seen Dunn, Cephrir, Hop, kitty all townread BB
I mean, he simply appeared townier than Gob/Dong/Turkey which is a pretty low baseline. None of them actually offered evidence that Molla is strong town.
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Post Post #4615 (isolation #916) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:35 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4614, CheekyTeeky wrote:Dislike his play today focussing on clearing himself and wanting to lynch whatever is hot and not Auro.
:roll:
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Post Post #4616 (isolation #917) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:38 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4597, Donempire wrote:
In post 4320, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 4316, Formerfish wrote:Scouts honor I will not place a vote down on anyone in lylo without talking to everyone that day.
Dong can you please do this too?
Ok
Hate that this is the only contribution from Dong rn
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Post Post #4619 (isolation #918) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:47 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4617, Donempire wrote:Everybody besides dann auro is locktown for me.
So if Dann or I flip today, and the game doesn't end, the other person
has
to have a partner... who?
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Post Post #4620 (isolation #919) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:49 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4617, Donempire wrote:Gobbles voting patterns/the way he pushes people like myself and ceph are incredibly weird and offputting but it has to be said that auro has been setting him up to be the lynch for days on end.
Auro's pushing Gobbles!
So Gobbles is locktown!
Therefore Auro can't be locktown.
Therefore Auro scum!!

Logic 101
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Post Post #4623 (isolation #920) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:58 am

Post by Auro »

Is it unreasonable to ask who'd be scum if one (or) both of us were town? Ya know, like *just* in case you're wrong?
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Post Post #4626 (isolation #921) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:11 am

Post by Auro »

Did you give any thought to the fact that I tried to move votes off of you after a quick hammer?
Did you wonder why I'd fakehammer you and then call you town after your reaction?
Enlighten me about my scum plan.
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Post Post #4628 (isolation #922) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:41 am

Post by Auro »

Oh well.

Cheeky, now we know that neither FF nor Dong will change their minds, even if you're convinced we're both town.

Still trying to lynch one of us is just dumb for scum!Dong, since he would know we flip town and Gobbles/Molla both want his head. Dong is town. And we're in autoloss because of that.

Pick one of me/Dann and you'll get your lynch. You'll have to convince Gobbles or Molla; I doubt they would both refuse for long. I'm not going to self-vote or vote Dann on principle.
If
Dong is somehow scum and playing a yolo strategy, it will become apparent in LyLo anyway for reasons.

On a selfish, personal level I'd rather you get me lynched because that leaves Dann to try and win LyLo. :P
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Post Post #4630 (isolation #923) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:20 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4629, Dannflor wrote:Dong/FF could be counting on the Auro > Gobble trajectory or the Dann > Gobble trajectory, if it is indeed Dong/FF.
How?
Molla's always going for Dong over Gobble, that much is clear. For them to believe that Molla will suddenly change his mind in LyLo and go for Gobble is kinda stupid.
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Post Post #4633 (isolation #924) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:24 am

Post by Auro »

Oh hm I see
I still think that can be resolved partly in LyLo, let's see

Pedit: Who will they NK then? You think they'll NK whoever in us isn't lynched?
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Post Post #4637 (isolation #925) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:29 am

Post by Auro »

I really really really wish they NK me if you're lynched.
Yeah, see ya!

There's no need to apologize dude, I think you've given enough now.
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Post Post #4638 (isolation #926) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:37 am

Post by Auro »

Also note that even if Cheeky townblocked us right off the bat we'd still not gather enough votes on scum; so Cheeky's actually not to blame for your/my lynch at the moment.
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Post Post #4642 (isolation #927) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:05 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4640, BBmolla wrote:You really don’t because apparently you think he’s town no matter what
I hate it
because
I think he's town.
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Post Post #4643 (isolation #928) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:06 am

Post by Auro »

If I thought there was a good chance he'd scum I'd simply just vote that
You and Gob want to lynch him anyway and Dann would vote too.
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Post Post #4647 (isolation #929) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:10 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4644, BBmolla wrote:
In post 4643, Auro wrote:If I thought there was a good chance he'd scum I'd simply just vote that
You and Gob want to lynch him anyway and Dann would vote too.
Meh I think you just want him alive because you know if he dies you’re likely getting lynched
You're right, that will happen, and that's a town loss.
The better option is me (or Dann, whatever) dying today.
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Post Post #4649 (isolation #930) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:13 am

Post by Auro »

I don't get you?
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Post Post #4651 (isolation #931) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:31 am

Post by Auro »

Would you want to die over Gobbles? You found a few reasons Gobbles could be scum for; yet you're SO sure he's town that you'd rather die yourself?
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Post Post #4652 (isolation #932) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:35 am

Post by Auro »

Because we can do a Gobbles lynch if you're willing - Gobbles works as a partner to FF too; Cheeky's team wants to lynch Gobbles, Dann and I already are.
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Post Post #4654 (isolation #933) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:47 am

Post by Auro »

He's indicated desire to be lynched earlier too
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Post Post #4655 (isolation #934) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:53 am

Post by Auro »

Molla, either choose between Gobbles or {Dann/Me} (Whatever Cheeky says).
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Post Post #4664 (isolation #935) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:48 pm

Post by Auro »

Cheeky, you should ask him about Dong partners outside Auro/Dann, and make him justify his Molla townread.
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Post Post #4695 (isolation #936) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:37 pm

Post by Auro »

It's terribly easy to make a scum case on Dong
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Post Post #4698 (isolation #937) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Post by Auro »

Dong is clearly not with FF {D1 wagons}
Dong is clearly not with Molla {D1 wagons}
Dong is clearly not with Me {if he was, I'd have his vote}
Dong is clearly not with Dann {today's play}
Dong is clearly not with Gobbles {wtf is Gobbles doing now then}
Dong is clearly not with Cheeky {duh}

He doesn't have a partner. A partner would either be defending him or pushing someone else for the lynch. Dong is always scummy.
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Post Post #4699 (isolation #938) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:44 pm

Post by Auro »

FF has zero reaction to Cheeky saying she'll vote Dong
He has every reason to fear a Dong lynch going through (Cheeky+Molla+Gob+Dann)

He hasn't given much of a shit about Dong at all. Why are you guys still seriously pushing a FF+Dong team?
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Post Post #4704 (isolation #939) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:47 pm

Post by Auro »

First, do you agree that outside {Auro, Dann}, Dong has no viable partner?
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Post Post #4705 (isolation #940) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:47 pm

Post by Auro »

Because I want to lynch you, and I'd rather have {Auro/Dann} lynched over Dong which is game-losing; Cheeky agreed to lynch you and Dann and I already were, Dong would be the fourth vote.
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Post Post #4706 (isolation #941) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:48 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4655, Auro wrote:Molla, either choose between Gobbles or {Dann/Me} (Whatever Cheeky says).
I like how Molla disappeared until now to start pushing that Auro/Dong solve again, when Cheeky expressed intent to vote Dong.
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Post Post #4708 (isolation #942) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:50 pm

Post by Auro »

Cheeky, you won't be alive in LyLo. It will be {Auro, Dann, FF, Gobble, Molla}. FF will vote for me and we lose.
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Post Post #4709 (isolation #943) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:51 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4707, BBmolla wrote:Fuck off Auro it’s Valentine’s Day and I’m at work
Don't care. I'm veto-ing Dong as a lynch. Pick either Gobbles, Dann or me. Actually, I might be scum with Dong yeah? Go for me then. Dann/Cheeky whoever goes to LyLo should powerlynch Gobbles.
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Post Post #4713 (isolation #944) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:57 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4710, gobbledygook wrote:And then what happens when Dong gets to tomorrow on my town flip...?
I get lynched. There's no win path for me given Dong and FF both will vote me with Dann alive. And I'm scum, yeah? So that's a win for town.
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Post Post #4717 (isolation #945) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:02 pm

Post by Auro »

Ahahaha so you can NK Cheeky and we're at the same spot tomorrow with one less town vote? Sure pal.
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Post Post #4720 (isolation #946) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:04 pm

Post by Auro »

Molla, you think I can be scum with Dong. You think I can be scum with Dann. You think I could be scum with Gob.
I have a ton of potential partners fypov. I'm also dangerous scum, as you claim.
Why not take this chance to lynch me?
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Post Post #4721 (isolation #947) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:04 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4719, gobbledygook wrote:
In post 4717, Auro wrote:Ahahaha so you can NK Cheeky and we're at the same spot tomorrow with one less town vote? Sure pal.
uh... you literally said it with your scenario.

But ok.
Re: Molla's post about a No Lynch over lynching me.
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Post Post #4723 (isolation #948) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:06 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4564, Auro wrote:Else, we'll have to fall back to lynching one of me or Dann. No Lynch wouldn't work out because we'd end up with the same gamestate except without you, with the same number of votes required and the same Auro/Dann tunnels. I think in this particular case it could actually have a higher payoff to lynch one of me/Dann.
I already covered why a NL is bad^
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Post Post #4725 (isolation #949) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:07 pm

Post by Auro »

Oh, I'm not smitten at all. :P
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Post Post #4727 (isolation #950) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:16 pm

Post by Auro »

Cheeky, they're pretty transparently playing a scum agenda, please don't blame me later saying "Gob had a nice Dong case and you didn't have a nice Gob case", it's not a case walling contest
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Post Post #4728 (isolation #951) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:21 pm

Post by Auro »

With Dong dead, they NK you and take me, Dann, FF to LyLo. FF believes that {Auro, Dann} is the scumteam and Dong flip will do nothing to change that belief. His teammates aren't giving him input. There's no reason he'll change his mind from a Dann+Auro solve, because if there was, he would've already.
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Post Post #4730 (isolation #952) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:25 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4729, CheekyTeeky wrote:I'm not sure how BB/gobbles > lynch Dong since the beginning of the game is any different to an Auro > lynch gobbles through most days.
Because I'm ready to get lynched myself if Gobbles is, in fact, town.
They won't be, they'll push Dann+Auro if Dong flips town
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Post Post #4731 (isolation #953) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:28 pm

Post by Auro »

Say I'm scum. If I'm scum with Dann, then Gobbles lynch is game losing for me anyway, because there's no reason for any out of {FF, Gob, Molla} to change their mind.
If I'm scum with Dong or someone, then Dann casting a vote on town is what I have to hope for - this is easily resolved by having Dann be the hammering vote I think.
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Post Post #4733 (isolation #954) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:30 pm

Post by Auro »

I instavote Gobbles and force a 1v1.
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Post Post #4736 (isolation #955) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:36 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4734, CheekyTeeky wrote:But that still gives the bb/gobs/FF trio the majority and they vote you.
FF/Dong likely re-evaluate with one of me or Dann flipped
CheekyTeeky wrote:I can see Auro. You need to just trust for a minute ok?
Sure, do your thing!
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Post Post #4746 (isolation #956) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:42 pm

Post by Auro »

Utility of reads to town is much more than it is to scum, who already have information of who's town
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Post Post #4750 (isolation #957) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:47 pm

Post by Auro »

So who are you lynching today?
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Post Post #4761 (isolation #958) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:57 pm

Post by Auro »

FF's play makes sense from the perspective of him being high and being tunnelled on us - his votes on you didn't seem opportunistic, more like he got emotional about perceived hypocrisy in your play.
There's also loose evidence for FF!town and this is overweighed by Gobs/Molla's scum equities.
I think his Dong vote actually rules out a Dong-FF team, which means Dong has no partners.
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Post Post #4763 (isolation #959) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:08 pm

Post by Auro »

Dude, building a case that looks nuanced is easy. Gobbles is competent enough to do that much. He also had help from teammates.
His reads aren't nuanced at all from a big picture level.
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Post Post #4766 (isolation #960) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:10 pm

Post by Auro »

Dann and I have both reached the conclusion that Gobbles bad. I don't see that position changing.
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Post Post #4769 (isolation #961) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:20 pm

Post by Auro »

Okay.
Cephrir was obvtown and thus not a lynch scum could push. Plus, he was sheeping Dann (or) me.
You, Dann and I were all legitimate pushes at the beginning of the day.

Of course a Molla/Gob team would lynch Ceph, who else could they?
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Post Post #4770 (isolation #962) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:21 pm

Post by Auro »

The Ceph kill makes sense in almost any universe where Dann is town, which he is.
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Post Post #4774 (isolation #963) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:40 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4771, CheekyTeeky wrote:Sigh. You're signing your death warrant Auro.
I'm confident enough that I'll take this chance?
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Post Post #4776 (isolation #964) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:44 pm

Post by Auro »

Cheeky, we can have a serious discussion about the possible remaining teams. Do you still think FF-Dong is possible?
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Post Post #4777 (isolation #965) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:45 pm

Post by Auro »

Sure, don't trust my reads. Let's start from scratch and go through the possible teams within {FF,Dong,Gobbles,Molla}?
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Post Post #4778 (isolation #966) » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:07 pm

Post by Auro »

Actually eff it. If you have any questions for me, I'm here.
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Post Post #4780 (isolation #967) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:54 am

Post by Auro »

Well, tell me a suitable partner for Dong who isn't Dann, I'll be happy to sheep.
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Post Post #4782 (isolation #968) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:14 am

Post by Auro »

In post 4780, Auro wrote:Well, tell me a suitable partner for Dong who isn't Dann, I'll be happy to sheep.
Don't see why you'd ignore this if town?
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Post Post #4784 (isolation #969) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:20 am

Post by Auro »

There you go. You asked me why I'm trying to kill you so hard.
I can't be Dong's partner since I'm town. Dong has no other viable partners.
Hence, I'm trying to kill you.
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Post Post #4791 (isolation #970) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:06 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4789, CheekyTeeky wrote:So you think Auro is betting on Dong being lynched in his stead tomorrow?
This is only possible if I'm partnered with Molla.
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Post Post #4794 (isolation #971) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:18 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4792, CheekyTeeky wrote:Can we lynch BB? I think he's > gobbles.
Yeah, I think this should be better than Dong at least. Did we have reasons to eliminate FF-Gob btw?
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Post Post #4795 (isolation #972) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:20 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4793, CheekyTeeky wrote:I don't think lynching off wagon has done very much for us this far.
Hopkirk lynch was rushed.
Esp lynch was... Deserved, I guess?
I think those don't factor in very highly.
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Post Post #4801 (isolation #973) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:27 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4799, BBmolla wrote:Auro what's your plan after you mislynch Gobbles?
As scum? There's none, as I said, unless I'm partnered with you I don't have a winning path.
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Post Post #4812 (isolation #974) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:38 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4806, BBmolla wrote:Dong Town = Town Me, Auro, Dann, You with a Gobbles/FF team
How does Auro+Dann not become a solve if Dong town?
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Post Post #4817 (isolation #975) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:41 pm

Post by Auro »

Doesn't work that way - so you're saying if Dong flips town you wouldn't say Auro/Dann is a solve in LyLo?
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Post Post #4820 (isolation #976) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:43 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4816, BBmolla wrote:If you're hard bussing go all out no?
You realize this is White Flag right?
Like what purpose will voting your partner achieve?
Cheeky goes "Oh, Auro+Dong isn't a solve, well might as well not lynch Auro then"? There were a bunch of other reasons to lynch me
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Post Post #4822 (isolation #977) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:44 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4818, BBmolla wrote:If they're a team Auro is also coaching the shit out of Dong with daytalk remember?
Does it even remotely appear that way? I'm a really good scum player by your own words; you think I'd coach Dong towards THAT play throughout the game?

I would've made him look a lot townier.
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Post Post #4824 (isolation #978) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:45 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4821, BBmolla wrote:If Dong is town then two of my reads are completely fucked and I have to re-evaluate everything
Lol then don't claim that Dong town = Auro/Dann town. When challenged on it you say you'd have to re-evaluate it.
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Post Post #4826 (isolation #979) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:48 pm

Post by Auro »

Having Dong exclusively lol-hardbus me is like the dumbest strategy I could coach him into, over making him appear generic towny.
BBmolla wrote:I mean I'll give you the truth which is that I haven't given that branch that much thought because I don't think it's the reality
Yup, then 4806 means nothing
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Post Post #4831 (isolation #980) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:54 pm

Post by Auro »

"Unknown sync tell"
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Post Post #4836 (isolation #981) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:57 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4832, BBmolla wrote:Auro who are the town if you had to guess?
You don't know my townreads?
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Post Post #4841 (isolation #982) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:00 pm

Post by Auro »

Dong, FF.
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Post Post #4843 (isolation #983) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:01 pm

Post by Auro »

Dong high %
FF I think is town, but meh
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Post Post #4845 (isolation #984) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:03 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4840, BBmolla wrote:Like look, neither camp can seem to achieve a lynch, no?

But there are five townies left, so you don't even NEED every townie to get a lynch on scum, you just need 4/5
Yes. I don't really have hopes of Dong/FF changing their mind. The day does end with a Dann/Auro lynch in all likelihood, with the hopes that Dong stops the stupid tunnel when one of us flips and FF "re-evaluates"
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Post Post #4847 (isolation #985) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:04 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4628, Auro wrote:Oh well.

Cheeky, now we know that neither FF nor Dong will change their minds, even if you're convinced we're both town.

Still trying to lynch one of us is just dumb for scum!Dong, since he would know we flip town and Gobbles/Molla both want his head. Dong is town. And we're in autoloss because of that.

Pick one of me/Dann and you'll get your lynch. You'll have to convince Gobbles or Molla; I doubt they would both refuse for long. I'm not going to self-vote or vote Dann on principle.
If
Dong is somehow scum and playing a yolo strategy, it will become apparent in LyLo anyway for reasons.

On a selfish, personal level I'd rather you get me lynched because that leaves Dann to try and win LyLo. :P
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Post Post #4851 (isolation #986) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:06 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4846, BBmolla wrote:Isn't it more fucking advantageous to lynch Dong then? Instead of Dann/Auro? Or are you not confident in your Dann read?
Nope, cause Dong town flip is pretty certain LyLo loss, and I'm confident in Dong town. The only Dong partner can be me or Dann you say; I know I'm town and I'm sure Dann's town too.

Lynching one in me/Dann destroys the Auro/Dann solve in LyLo and should help to some degree to conftown the other.
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Post Post #4854 (isolation #987) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:08 pm

Post by Auro »

Idk, if you want me to lynch Dong because he can be teamed up with Dann... No.
Also don't forget that Dann pushed Dong today pretty hard
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Post Post #4856 (isolation #988) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:09 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4853, BBmolla wrote:Why is it certain LYLO loss?
Which one in {Molla/Gob/FF} is likely to vote against an Auro/Dann solve given a Dong town flip?
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Post Post #4857 (isolation #989) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:11 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4855, BBmolla wrote:and then promptly reversed it out of nowhere, yes, I remember.
Quote it if you think that's what happened. He continued to push Dong afterwards. He changed his mind when I made him re-evaluate you and Gob
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Post Post #4859 (isolation #990) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:12 pm

Post by Auro »

Yes... Like Gob, so let's lynch Gob?
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Post Post #4865 (isolation #991) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:22 pm

Post by Auro »

Nice job taking one vote change without context.
You remember this but not my townreads :?:

Gob town loses the game for me anyway, especially if Dong's town... I had reasons against FF/Molla (D1 wagons I think) but not impossible.

If Dong is scum I'd be truly amazed at the WF gambits involved
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Post Post #4866 (isolation #992) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:24 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4863, BBmolla wrote:FWIW, my team still thinks Cheeky is scum
Reasons? Do you disagree with them?
In post 4864, BBmolla wrote:GOD DAMNIT WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS GAME
You've mentioned a bunch of reasons Gobs could be scum yourself, why can't he just be scum with FF?
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Post Post #4868 (isolation #993) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:42 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4867, BBmolla wrote:Auro/Cheeky from Titus, Cheeky/Gobbles from Math.
Lol! Ask them to case.
Lynching Gobbles today and Auro tomorrow should then be an acceptable plan. Do they agree? Since Cheeky isn't being lynched.
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Post Post #4872 (isolation #994) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:02 pm

Post by Auro »

Well it is a dangerous path to take if he's scum, 180-ing his read on you now... Like does he hope to convince me and Dann both on it somehow?

Versus just going along with the "lynch in one of Dann/Auro" plan.

Hmm
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Post Post #4894 (isolation #995) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:07 pm

Post by Auro »

Na I'm down to sheep any lynch Cheeky wants (apart from myself or Dann, she can get votes for anyway). Gobbles is still highest preference for game win.
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Post Post #4895 (isolation #996) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:15 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4891, CheekyTeeky wrote:Another perspective is that Auro/BB could be the team pushing from both directions
Yes... That surely explains the last few pages :P
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Post Post #4897 (isolation #997) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:20 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4759, Formerfish wrote:I don't get much away my way when I've played like shit myself.
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Post Post #4898 (isolation #998) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:21 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 4896, BBmolla wrote:Auro check our scum PT I have a plan
Screw daytalk buddy, yolo
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Post Post #4903 (isolation #999) » Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:40 pm

Post by Auro »

Dong's the worst possible lynch.
Locked

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