White Flag - TM2020

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Post Post #4975 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:00 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

BB didn't you think Auro or Dann were Dong's buddy?
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Post Post #4976 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:03 pm

Post by BBmolla »

In post 4975, CheekyTeeky wrote:BB didn't you think Auro or Dann were Dong's buddy?
I did but if Dong is town the whole situation is different
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Post Post #4977 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:05 pm

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If Dong is town I don't think Auro is scum

Unless you think he's playing the fucking long long long game

and in that case I don't see Auro/Dann both choosing not to hammer on Dong

Nothing makes fucking sense
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Post Post #4978 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:09 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

Ok, well work with me because I want to see town!BB as well. Let's assume Auro/Dann/Bb/Dong/Cheeky are town that leaves gobbles/FF from that point of view who you've hard defended. So do you think you could be wrong on either of them? Do you think you're writing off Dann too soon since he hasn't posted since Dong was at L-1?
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Post Post #4979 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:14 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

Imagine a world where both gobbles and Dong are town. Either lynch is great for scum, particularly Dong as gobbles gets lynched at lylo. If scum do not vote Dong then either gobbles gets lynched and Dong dies at lylo or onge gets enough votes that anyone on the Dong wagon becomes lynchable in lylo. It's a pretty sweet place to be.
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Post Post #4980 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:15 pm

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He flipped on Dong (scum to town) a while back for no seeming reason, so if Dong is town that makes Dann look good.
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Post Post #4981 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:17 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

Notice when I gave intent on Dong, Auro continued to push gobbles? Notice how Auro never steers away from gobbles even in his 1 million posts of "sorting"
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Post Post #4982 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:18 pm

Post by BBmolla »

In post 4981, CheekyTeeky wrote:Notice when I gave intent on Dong, Auro continued to push gobbles? Notice how Auro never steers away from gobbles even in his 1 million posts of "sorting"
If Auro and Dann are both scum, why the fuck would they both choose to not lynch Dong, who is hard tunneled on Auro?
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Post Post #4983 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:20 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

Because Dong is supposed to die today hence no real resistance to that lynch as opposed to a Dann or Auro lynch.
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Post Post #4984 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:21 pm

Post by BBmolla »

In post 4983, CheekyTeeky wrote:Because Dong is supposed to die today hence no real resistance to that lynch as opposed to a Dann or Auro lynch.
So their plan is to sit off wagon in hopes that the four town who aren't Dong all vote him?
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Post Post #4985 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:26 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

I'm not even sure the team is Dann/Auro. Which is why I think a gobbles lynch is best today to cut a bb/FF/gobbles combo team in which case you're free to lynch in Auro/Dann depending on who makes the most sense if you go to lylo.
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Post Post #4986 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:27 pm

Post by BBmolla »

You're voting Auro though?
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Post Post #4987 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:28 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

In post 4984, BBmolla wrote:
In post 4983, CheekyTeeky wrote:Because Dong is supposed to die today hence no real resistance to that lynch as opposed to a Dann or Auro lynch.
So their plan is to sit off wagon in hopes that the four town who aren't Dong all vote him?
If you recall Dann thought Dong was a good lynch. I'm sure closer to deadline scum!dann could have hammered while you tunneled. It's one of the reasons BB/Dann made the most sense to me today.
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Post Post #4988 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:28 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

In post 4986, BBmolla wrote:You're voting Auro though?
Yes and now you've unvoted and are talking.
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Post Post #4989 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:30 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

I'm curious why you chose to vote gobbles over Auro when you changed your mind on Dong?
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Post Post #4990 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:32 pm

Post by BBmolla »

In post 4989, CheekyTeeky wrote:I'm curious why you chose to vote gobbles over Auro when you changed your mind on Dong?
If Dong is town, Auro is likelier town than scum imo
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Post Post #4991 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:34 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

So why gobbles over FF or Dann?
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Post Post #4992 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:37 pm

Post by BBmolla »

Dann is town
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Post Post #4993 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:37 pm

Post by BBmolla »

FF seems town too
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Post Post #4994 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:37 pm

Post by BBmolla »

everything sucks
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Post Post #4995 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:43 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

So Dann seems town even when he wanted to vote Dong but never did after Auro persisted that Dong had no viable partners?

Can you explain your Dann read a little bit? I would like to see town!Dann too but I still haven't had decent reasons, especially after his play today. Also note that FF is also scumreading Dann.
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Post Post #4996 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:44 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

I'm a little confused that Dann was a potential partner for Dong but is town after shading Dong and not voting there.
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Post Post #4997 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:50 pm

Post by BBmolla »

I remember a flip but then I looked and it doesn't exist and now I'm just sad
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Post Post #4998 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:58 pm

Post by CheekyTeeky »

So no reason for a Dann townread?
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Post Post #4999 (ISO) » Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:57 pm

Post by gobbledygook »

In post 4935, Donempire wrote:What the fuck does aggressively shading mean? I'm openly saying that former is scum there, there is no shading going on. The only reason i didnt vote FF was because he was L-1 a page ago, i want a lynch but i want to make a consensus lynch instead of lolhammering. Thats a scummy thing?
Also, no shit, i wanted to lynch former and didnt want to lynch nsg. You're just coming to that conclusion?
Shading is when you are obliquely saying something about someone. The reason I characterized it as shading is because of the lack of vote.
In a vacuum, not wanting to lolhammer is a good thing, but stating that is the reason you are voting looks LAMIST to me.
No, I have had this conclusion for this day phase. I said it because I was making a case.
In post 4935, Donempire wrote:Oh? How is that a misrepresantation? If you're going to say something, explain it so i dont have to fish it out.
Also, one quick question:
Did nsgs lynch provide any information?
If we lynched former, we would have lynched nsg tomorrow and both auro and dann would have been at a knifes edge. The game situation would have been better.
Also yeah, i hard scumread cheeky for the longest time. You're just saying things that have been clear for ages like its a brand new revelation.
I will ask EP to expand on this thought, but he has been pretty MIA today due to a sickness. I think Dunn also said that this 1v1 comment was a misrepresentation. To me, what NSG looked like was blatantly self preserving. She voted for a viable counter wagon to her own wagon. 1 v 1 does not mean the person spirals into a death tunnel on the other.
I think NSG's lynch does provide information. Particularly information on who supported it and who was against it. I have been very open about my distrust of the people who were against the NSG lynch. I'm not sure why you asked this question?
I am analyzing your play. That requires me to establish baseline premises for your play.
In post 4935, Donempire wrote:Whats your point
Like, there is nothing for me to say here. There is no point.
It comes several hours after i say former is scum, because like i said, he was at l-1 just last page. I didnt want to risk lolhammers or hurrying up the lynch.
I wasnt posturing, and you didnt say anything about that.
And no, i dont care about "how the optics look" or about defending myself. I have been heavily scumread this entire game. The optics look like a boot fished from the marianas trench. I didnt defend myself because i dont care, my number 1 priority is finding scum which at that point i hadnt done.
My point is that you only actually voted after players began to openly question your play with regards to not voting. This vote does not look like it has the internal motivation of trying to scumhunt. It looked like the vote was prompted by the discussion of your lack of voting.
In post 4935, Donempire wrote:Its a lynch list.
"I wouldnt consider lynching anyone besides those tomorrow" means its a lynch list.
I only defended nsg because there wasnt enough info to go around. Same drum.
On espeonage, mind the "BUT" in the sentence. I wouldnt want to lynch outside that group BUT i want to make a case on esp.
Its such an easy thing, you can just ask me instead of speculating. You know, if you considered me to be aligned with the same faction instead of burrowing your head underground and doing whatever auro and dann want you to.
You weren't around at the time, so I apologize that I couldn't ask you. I made the case and am talking to you now, though.

If that is your lynch list, why did you then later make the comment that you hated it as a compromise when objectively by this list BBmolla should be an even worse compromise lynch but you voted there without hesitation.
In post 4935, Donempire wrote:Either i kill him tonight since he clearly isnt in the mood to support me (whatever that means) or i never bother with him because im not scum.
The guy has me at his killpool, but apparently his support meant a lot to me. Sure.
In either scenario, buddying Dong is beneficial to you. It prevents him from pushing you, and gains you an ally. That is why scum buddy people.
In post 4935, Donempire wrote:Okay. So this post makes it sound like i dont think former is scum, and rather that i just want his lynch to be done with.
This would be a reasonable thought process, EXCEPT i say in the end that im still pretty sure on former. So i still believe former is scum.
And for the rest of the post, see below
My overall point is that at the time of the comments, you turned Formerfish into a viable wagon rather than NSG who you also apparently scumread. I have a problem with this because it looks like scum fencesitting on actually voting their partner. They want the town credit of calling out a member of the scumteam, but they don't actually want their teammate to die. Does that not make sense?

You have been repeating that the reason for preferring Formerfish over NSG is because the Formerfish lynch gives better information. But that completely ignores the fact that the NSG wagon gave tons of information with how people reacted to her wagon.

What would information would a Formerfish flip have given at that point of the game?
In post 4935, Donempire wrote:For clarification: I'm not a perfect player. But i know my strengths and weaknesses, and my number one weakness is not following voting procedure or vote counts. At the point i made the i was suspicious of former post, or the voting former post i hadnt checked the VCs once. My only reason for being there is to get my voice out since my vote can be placed on and off easily, its not something that weighs too heavily for me.
Again, my number 1 lynch to go is former. I only hammered nsg because there was no way former was dying at that point. If there was a sliver of possibility that former could be lynched even if nsg was on l-1, i would be on his case.
FORMER
WAS
MY
SCUMREAD.
And im kind of tired of responding to your shit arguments saying im scum for pushing a scummy player over someone whos afk.
I think that scum disproportionately get away with what NSG did in that case. They rest on their laurels and are never really challenged because "oh, they are an amazing player." Plus, it looked like an easy way for you to rectify your suspicions come later in the game.

"Oh I am only voting NSG because she is not efforting" is just as weak as "I'm not voting NSG because her flip will give us less information"

Look at from this perspective

If Formerfish is town, scum get 2 nightkills and a town lynch out of NSG living to day 2. POSSIBLY MORE. Even if NSG immediately gets lynched Day 2, scum have now gotten an extra 2 town deaths from her lynch. That is why I think the NSG wagon reactions are key in this game. The benefit of having a mafia going down Day 2 as opposed to Day 1, even if that Mafia is the de facto lynch, is literally 2x more useful.
In post 4935, Donempire wrote:Lets analyze the situation where i did this:
Four other people already voted for BB: We were trying to lynch him with CFD. Yes, he wasnt my favourite suspect to vote but it was something. I admit i couldve done better and went for nsg but felt lazy. You do have a point there.
However this isnt a preservation vote. If this was, i wouldnt have hammered nsg no matter what. Many people barely survived a l-1 vote that day, why couldnt nsg?
It just does not make sense to me that you list 4 people that you want to lynch, BBmolla is NOT one of those 4 people, NSG IS one of those 4 people, the BBmolla wagon flares up and you vote it, then the NSG wagon flares up and you DON'T want to vote it.

I get your point, but disagree with it, that the NSG wagon is low information compared to Formerfish. But that means that BBmolla's wagon has to be more information than NSG's wagon. Which I don't think is true because it literally sprang up within 5 hours whereas NSG's wagon had been gaining momentum over the course of DAYS.

The reason the vote is preservationist is because the deadline was fast approaching. When deadline looms large over, people are willing to hammer just to make sure there is a lynch. Additionally, I think NOT being a scum lynch looks worse than being on a scum lynch, so scum would want to be on there no matter what.
In post 4935, Donempire wrote:It makes sense from a town player tired of everyone ATEing out of their lynches so we're left with undesirable lynches, so i said fuck it. BB had the same scum equity as nsg did at that point, why not just hop in if ffs going to break the furniture when i push him.
Also, scum!dong isnt this bold.
If that is the case, then why not complain about BBmolla's wagon being a bad compromise?
In post 4935, Donempire wrote:Whats your point
This goes back to the shading comment. If you want me to use a buzzword to describe what I think is happening here, it is a chainsaw defense. You attack player x who is attacking player y. In doing so, you make player y look better by reducing the credibility of player x.
In post 4935, Donempire wrote:Look numbnut
I wanted to lynch former
so lynching nsg is the worst compromise for me here because if shes town we're fucked to a tee, even if she is scum we're fucked because we're back to square one while the chances of hitting scum are dwindled and we'll shoot ourselves in the foot for the next coming days.
The compromise for me is we lynch former today, and nsg TOMORROW. When we have adequate posts to compare her to. If she doesnt, she dies anyway. If she does, great, we have a basis to read her on. EVEN BETTER.
Certainly better than fucking lolwagoning her day 1 and then mislynching 2 people, getting pocketed by both scum and having all your reads be incorrect, i think.
I fundamentally disagree with this. NSG had been openly flaunting she was not going to give effort in this game. In addition, if she is scum, we need to land just one more lynch to win the game plus we would have a lot of associatives to go off because White Flag as a game type dissuades scum from wanting to bus, let alone bus on Day 1.
In post 4941, Donempire wrote:
In post 4938, gobbledygook wrote:Dong, other than responding to the case, is there anything you want me to address?
I would like to talk to you about auro, unlike you said i didnt just say my piece and leave, i have been trying to push it. What do you think about it?
I think Auro has decent scum equity in this game. Auro has been very stark in his opinions in a way that makes me think he is trying to hide who is defending. At the moment, I cannot tell if he is trying to hide his defense of you with his defense of Dann, or vice versa.

What do you make of the fact that he is now apparently saying it is better to lynch himself over you or Dann? Auro!Town would know from his perspective that the only person who is confirmed town is himself and his lynch automatically puts us into LyLo.
In post 4945, Donempire wrote:I'm begging you BB just vote me please god
On the same topic, why do you want to die so badly?

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