Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[MathBlade]

I put less stock into killing for reads after the D1 we had, and more stock in killing to remove power (RC)

or uni-town reads

and continue divisiveness. Normally I like sheeping the dead, but think this gameroom was such that reads had less weight. I genuinely expected D2 to be turbo-RC.

Then you should be voting RCE. Only way a kill fails on RC is if RCE is scum.

You seem to have difficulty reading.

You seem to have difficulty explaining why scum kill me or RCE over RC.

Universal townread doesn’t compare. When it matched the evidence it made sense. Now it doesn’t.

[MathBlade]

i think theres some merit to the traitor theory, it does explain me as target, and (imo) the setup we seem to have.
without the .. disloyal? modifier makes it difficult for scum to get much utility from it tho. but i guess regular nb is +options for scum

What do you think happened N1?

[MathBlade]

um..i dont understand the question?

N1 there was no kill.

Who do you think scum tried to kill?
And who do you think tried to do it?

[MathBlade]

you are one of power/big presence players, and iirc you were tr eod1 so i think you could have been the kill.
i wouldnt expect rce to be a common n1 nk pick.
i get the mechanical argument on rce. thing is, independently i tr him kinda hard.
given rc was town and they went for him n2 im surprised they wouldnt n1, but a foolish scum may have thought between duck + me that rc would be lynchable. sauds play does point to that in a way.

So then who according to you shoots me? So much more so you’re willing to ignore the mechanical evidence? A majority of this game doesn’t.

[MathBlade]

i mean, anyone?
{you, tw, rc skitter} are players i expect to be likely nks as town, regardless who is scum

the mechanical argument would be a lot more convincing if ico didnt exist.
i have a decent amt of meta with him, and thus far the sack of potatoes scum meta has held true. hes not potating here.
i could be underestimating him
i can already see that hes gonna be lynched at some point over this

Sack of potatoes? What does that mean?

[MathBlade]

You replace a low poster. But like, it doesn't matter.

It really does matter. It tells me you have stronger feelings about Teacher as scum as well as saying I could be a scumteam with Teacher and RC in your eyes, which is kind of out there tbh.

I started callong Teacher scummy out of the gates and when I had a chance to rethink that, I instead doubled down on it. How would we be possible teammates in your eyes?

@teacher

It’s a lot of posts like this here.

Day one Ari was lurky and crappy but was probably VLA

Day two he started interacting with things in depth.

Titus scumreads Ari but I don’t.

Which kinda is a reverse of day one lol.

[MathBlade]

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

Why aren’t you voting RCE? << Question from Titus to Bella

And I am down for letting this sort tomorrow.

Titus is in a bit of moon logic territory imho so I am talking with her first before explaining her reads.

[MathBlade]

Below is a Titus paraphrase: (I don’t agree but ...*shrug*)

Hey everyone,

My VCA says we should leave RCE alone and go after shos and Flopz, if I am wrong on teacher. The only scum on the Flopz wagon in 1.8 was shos(will explain why no RCE soon). Shos is in the run people over with a vehicle with lots of wheels spot. 1.13 and 1.14 leave the teacher longshot as possible. Back half of the worst wagon is loaded with lots of people that are possibly scummy. That suggests a flip worst, lynch RC strategy.

N1, Scum kill RCE to get Math and RC fighting like cats and dogs. Bella healed him.

D2, Opening, Flopz jumps on Ari mislynch when Shos wagoned. Rule of adjoining peoples, Flopz and teacher unlikely. Teacher likely townbeard. Confscum on skitter wagon with no counter. Skitter locktown for today. 2.8 is a neon lynch Shos sign. 2.11-2.15, Flopz waffles on whether to use a vehicle for manslaughter of an evil person or stick with Math v RC plan. Sausade self hammer suggests at least one scum on.

I say to lynch shos and Flopz.

——— End Titus paraphrase ———

I disagree just being a good teammate

[MathBlade]

And yes she completely changed her mind on Ari once I told her Bella’s claim

I think she needs to let the Bella claim sit a bit but she wanted to get her opinion out before I am gone all day

[MathBlade]

Titus is rapidly typing that she made a typo and teacher is the backup and shos+Flopz are primary scumreads.

Anywho still doesn’t make sense but correcting that.

[MathBlade]

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

+1 and aso skitter

xtomx's posting looks bad even when he does post.
I'm still in fvor of lynching RCE first but I really am sure that {Math, xtom, RCE} solves the game

Disagree. Rce and Skitter make more sense

Can compromise here

Skitter’s reads have been crap and she is usually better.

[MathBlade]

i mean, anyone?
{you, tw, rc skitter} are players i expect to be likely nks as town, regardless who is scum

the mechanical argument would be a lot more convincing if ico didnt exist.
i have a decent amt of meta with him, and thus far the sack of potatoes scum meta has held true. hes not potating here.
i could be underestimating him
i can already see that hes gonna be lynched at some point over this

Then if you don’t believe RCE is scum you have to push an alternative that is more probable than that.
Teacher is trying but still didn’t explain which other theory is more likely. I think he’s scum or town that’s doing scum’s work for them but he’s at least pushing Ari (I think?)

[MathBlade]

@Flopz I agree lately very little of what Titus has been saying makes sense. But she was getting annoyed at me not posting her opinions that didn’t make sense soooo :/ Damned if you do damned if you don’t.

@Ico I still favor RCE even with your shade. If RCE flips scum and you still wanna push me fine but I really don’t think that makes sense and if we get down to 1 or 2 scum then we will have room to mislynch me if you insist. I don’t really see how any of that follows but you do you.

RCE + Skitter or teacher makes so much more sense.

[MathBlade]

Math I'm having a really hard time seeing how you're justifying 3 scum alive while not worrying that a mislynch today makes tomorrow Mylo.

I am not concerned for a couple of reasons. This post also assumes Mafiascum “balance”

1) If you’re town I am back to confirmed town. Then people understand it is an honest theory with an honest mistake. And then 2) How your wagon formed and who was against it/for it and why will likely net us that scum.
3) Since RC for all intents and purposes should have been the kill if not then we look back at Ari and the people I suspected day one as my reads were wrong.

Either you’re scum or we go into tomorrow with two or more of Bella/me/Ico all of whom conf town and that would make a mislynch a lot harder. It becomes a numbers game.

And if you’re scum it’s 1-2 scum alive versus Bella conf town and Ico very likely town but not quite conf.

It’s win win no matter what.

[MathBlade]

1) If you’re town I am back to confirmed town.

NO!!!!! Dont make me point out that Town!RCE could have been saved. Sure, its less likely than Town!you being saved now, while RCE's alignment is in question. But with Town!RCE known, then it becomes 50/50 (you were both good protective targets), and there is no way in hell Im letting you call yourself conftown.

Uhmmm less likely and 50/50 both these things can’t be true.
50/50 is equal.

And yeah I would be the kill in that case because all RCE did end of day was say “Yeah I would lynch RC tomorrow”

So then conf isn’t right but very very very likely town.

[MathBlade]

@ico Think for a minute
Neighborizing scum has flipped.
What better boon to give scum than an ability to talk with a traitor.
My guess is that Xtom was their guess on the traitor.
The way teacher asks me gamestate while scumreading me tells me that he thinks I am the traitor.

That actually does make a lot of sense, I'll give you that. Scum have a *multitasking* neighboutizer. Why is that?
1. Because they other scums are not goons (or one is n-shot strongman)
2. Because it is intended that even if scum Tris/saudade is the one making the kill, he still will be able to neighboutizer - i.e. scum have motivation to get a hood.

This fits, actually

no, it really doesn't

there's really no universe where this game is 3+1, i would be *shocked* if that were the case
maaaaaybe 2+1 but scum already have to contend with two protectives that fuck with them getting the nk and a traitor is weaker than a full 3person scumteam so i think that's p unlikely unless last scum is like a full strongman or something.
even in that scenario tbh

a few assorted thoughts as i've been reading thru:

-> i really don't think ari is scum, and esp. not scum with saudade, despite him defending sauade yesterday; when i asked him to join in real time the night the wagon grew he was p cool with it and joined it with little resistance fairly immediately thereafter, and stayed throughout the rest of the day. rc was harping on it but iirc it wasn't a sure thing yet and if scum were bussing the way ari joined feels like the wrong time for a bus; i'd expect scum to hop on when it had grown some more and seemed more likely to go through

-> given saudade neighborizer i think that xtoxm is more likely than not town

-> i think math is significantly less likely to be town than rce. i think he's espousing nonsense and i honestly can't track how he's approaching this day at all

-> in contrast, i think that rce's blunt 'well idk what to tell but i didn't the nk n1' is kinda townie. also i think him not getting flustered is +town; i think that scum who gets caught in this kind of situation is less ~calm~ since they know they're mechanically screwed and are in a p tough spot and thus tend to be more survivalistic imo. he's kinda accepted the inevitability of his lynch and is instead trying to move town towards figuring out where to solve after his flip, which i don't think scum do here, i'd more expect them to be trying to talk their way of being the lynch. which he is kinda like doing but that's not his focus rn, it's more: ok fine, you flip me, where do you go next, and that mindset i think is townie

-> also wrt to the rce's nonflustered-ness: if he's scum he's the deep wolf - we all kinda agree that's why he would have done the nk n1, because in most teams he'd be least likely to be tracked or detected or whatever. so if he's the deepwolf, and he's going down today ... he's remarkably calm given the state that his team must be in rn. i think he'd be a little more desperate if he felt that the game was dependant on his survival

-> i think that there was something else i wanted to say but i'm blanking, it will probably come to me

Full strongman 1) improbable as no successful N1 kill
2) that’s where I was getting one of Bella/Ico scum but that got shot down as not “balanced”.
3) Incorrect. Xtom as scum says not neighborized here unless they tried to neighborize RCE and failed. With Saud being multitasking the action was very likely used making Xtom very likely town.
4) Both you and teacher may not understand my moonlogic but RCE is the lynch that we need atm. I may be bad at wordy words but I am good at trying really hard.
5) RCE if he knows he’s the lynch doesn’t give info. Here he’s not trying for reads. He tried to push me with a what if?
This is absolutely the right play why are you and teacher so against it?
6) Why are you assuming only one deep wolf? RCE plus you and/or teacher is highly probable here. I honestly expected to come back with RCEs flip when I left for the bay. Not resistance

[MathBlade]

In short I really don’t think Xtom is scum but the only possible world Xtom is scum in is an RCE town one and that’s highly improbable

[MathBlade]

anyway teacher, your comment about you cant get rce above 40% got me thinking.

10 alive, lets remove bella/ico, 8 suspects. 2 scum => 25% odds of scum, or from a personal perspective, removing oneself, 28.5% (im not sure if its actually fair to do this)

youre framing it as:
math nk: 33%
rce nk: 33%
rce makes kill: 33%

so theres only a 4.5% chance above rand that rce is scum. not very significant right? wrong!

lets frame it another way.

12 slots alive n1. saud is known scum, so lets remove it from the nk pool, leaving 11.
remaining scum identities are unknown, so i think they have to be left in.

individual chance of each slot being nk is ~9.1%

math nk: 9.1%
rce nk: 9.1%
rce makes kill = sum over remaining 9 slots = 81.8%

when i think about it like this, theres no way to justify opposing the rce lynch bc of a tr.
81.8% is a massive improvement over rand.

i think this is the right way to model it, but i'd be interested in having my working proof read.
im more interested in the stats side than "player Y is 80% likely to be the nk bc i can read scums minds"

Your math imho is incorrect here.
Scum identities are unknown but there are at least two alive scum more than likely so scum wouldn’t submit a kill on buddies. So then you’d be looking at 9 or 8 nk possibilities.

[MathBlade]

The idea behind it though is spot on which is why RCE should be lynched.

[MathBlade]

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

+1 and aso skitter

xtomx's posting looks bad even when he does post.
I'm still in fvor of lynching RCE first but I really am sure that {Math, xtom, RCE} solves the game

Disagree. Rce and Skitter make more sense

Can compromise here

Skitter’s reads have been crap and she is usually better.

-> i don't think my reads have been crap, ty
-> for the six billionth time you seem to be basing your entire knowledge of how i play on one game that took place 2+ years ago; plz stop pointing at meta when you have no idea what you're talking about and ignore me when i point it out
-> i keep on trying to get you to explain why you scumread me but you keep poining at generalities ('she's scummy' 'her reads have been crap') or things that are categorically untrue ('her timeline for when she scumread me yesterday doesn't make sense') or things taht are kinda irrelevant ('i think she's scum because she's playing different than that one game we played together 2+ years ago, before several play style changes occured'). when i respond with details or specific questions you've ignored them

I can’t explain it but you’re different.

Things pings are rare but worth listening to.

It’s not enough to push you but you definitely are off.

[MathBlade]

Oy,
Mathematician here
I think I'm qualified for this

We had 12 alive that night, 3 scum.

1. Any of the other scums perform kill: 66%
---if this is the case, then the target must have been either RCE or Math, 2/9*


This means the odds for RCE not being blocked as a reason for the lack of kill is 2*66/9=14.7%

That is assuming there was a kill.

This is team mafia. We can assume scum aren’t being silly and just not killing. The three scum minimum yeah could be four based on a few things but three is more probable.

[MathBlade]

im mostly asleep but rolled over and read the maths from xtomx and shos

youre not wrong but youre not right either the problem loes in the odds youre ssyong 2/9

but theres no way in hell im killed n1 or flopz pr xtom or bella ormplim

these ppl were save candidates for a reason - there was a ++rand chance tp be killed

Okay...You can’t have it both ways.

If there is a ++rand chance RC (the only claimed PR) is shot then it’s a ++rand RCE tried to do it as the kill failed.
If you’re saying there isn’t ++rand chance RC is killed then the odds Xtom presented work and RCE was most likely the killer.

Both roads lead to RCE being the likely killer here.

[MathBlade]

Xtom and shos **

[MathBlade]

9.1%

no its the same error it relies on sayinf theres the same chance xtomx was killed as RC or you

there was not like i see 4 sensible N1s total - you (save) rce (save) skit (jk killer) rc (jk killer)

good for you all if you can make reads off of N1, but i camt in the current claim space

That’s actually boiling down to
Me save
RCE save
RCE did the kill of anyone else (skit or RC) << This possibility in your list even if we use this narrowed down is the most likely.

Even if we assume that only those four options exist (which imho is incorrect)
That’s still 50% chance RCE is scum who was jailkept
25% chance I was shot and RCE alignment unknown
And 25% chance RCE was shot and town.

So what exactly is your issue with voting RCE here?

[MathBlade]

9.1%

no its the same error it relies on sayinf theres the same chance xtomx was killed as RC or you

there was not like i see 4 sensible N1s total - you (save) rce (save) skit (jk killer) rc (jk killer)

good for you all if you can make reads off of N1, but i camt in the current claim space

scum dont always make the expected kill
i wouldnt put any slot below, say, 5%
obviously i agree that, subjectively, some slots are more likely shots than others

@shos, thanks
looks like whatever errors i made ended up with a lower number than yours, and my main concern was being wrong in the other direction.

im on board now, holding off since ico asked.

The main problem is how you phrase the question can get a wildly different number for the same concept.

Hence why stats can be misleading.

I was trying to actually steer away from percentages.

Also RCE being a townread from teacher is horrible considering RC’s FoS of RCE yesterday.

[MathBlade]

The gist of the point is that the RCE was scum jailkept is much much more likely than any other option.

[MathBlade]

Trim talk about Plum town or scum and why?

eh, not much of a read yet. the skitter read might come from town.

Then who are you supposing I am scum with? Your vote is on me.

What are you doing to find my nonexistent buddies?

Gross. Why does Tris need to solve the rest of the game to pursue a scum read? Instead of, y'know, sorting that scumread.

This is also gross considering Saud(tris) flipped scum.

[MathBlade]

I've only gotten through one recent page. RC the only major wagons have been on your scumreads. Led by you. Followed by the slots that think you're town (almost everyone) and at one point (probably everyone).

If scum destroyed the gamestate then yes, it's TW intentionally doing so because he knew it would work. Because why wouldn't it. That's not a scum problem.

VOTE: Plum probably fine with a Tris lynch at this point too.

This is also bad since RCE’s previous mention of tris was hard town then no questioning no anything then just sends Tris down to would lynch without explanation.

[MathBlade]

RCE, who's scum with RC?

Teacher + a low poster. Probably within Bella/plum/Xtoxm. Well maybe not Xtoxm, there would probably be more enthusiasm for the game if he rolled scum with RC. Ari can still fit in there. I don't look at RC flipping the wagon at it's height onto TW and think man they look reeeaaallll townie for that.

@RCE, townreads please?

Same as yesterday

Math/Ico/skitter

If RCE is scum rule of three says Skitter probably is. (Yes I know that this gives scum ammo to mislynch me but if I am right on RCE scum we have the breathing room)

[MathBlade]

There is a lot of reason to discredit a confirmed slot.

Anyway RC, you're 3 for 3 on pushing for town lynches if Ari ends up town so why should your saudade read be considered different? If not for the fact they voted you.

Which is where a lot of your scumreads have come from this game. I started backing off early because you broke that pattern after I disengaged from interacting but it's picked back up since.

It's really disingenuous to push Math on the grounds that he was defending the shos wagon which was probably scum and now that they've called you town, you called Math out as leading a mislynch if he votes shos.

Ewwwwwwwwww

[MathBlade]

Ari you can keep babysitting him might as well change his diaper in a while
Ico you can keep being.. well you, like that one time you replaced into my game called all the scum town and all the town scum and that was it
skitter30???? ever since last game your reads were horse shit not gonna lie and if it werent for you getting night killed we'd never lynch Wake88 and won the game at lylo
MathBlade I've no qualms genuine attempts to read through this horseshit

Rule of three. Rule of three. The same rule of three as RCE before.
Plus the shade here was imho an attempt at distancing here and an attempt to buddy me.

If there is no traitor then RCE + Skitter is hella likely.

[MathBlade]

You could quote their win % a bunch or something.

You mean discrediting Mathblade's play prowess then? Well, I would never have nightkilled them and Math responds significantly better to pocketing than what I did and given past history with the Titus siblings I have universally kept them around by letting them get their way and letting them lynch town, why didn't I let them do that here? At least one of the people Math has pushed (Skitter/Ari) has to be scum unless it's literally the 3 of us.

^^ Oooh look either Skitter or Ari is scum per RC.

Seriously if you don’t listen to me listen to RC.

[MathBlade]

Math im not meaning to offend with this statement however.

Once I flip I think you need to consider backing down from wanting to be towns voice, and play a supporting role instead. I think this is in the best interest of town.

If you flip town then I have no regrets over it.

It would be necessary because of the jailkeep claim.
I would have zero regrets over it.

I would be sad sure.

Also I am not “the voice”.

I gave my opinion and others agree/disagree.

Everyone disagrees with my traitor theory. Fine. I may take a different road to get there but that doesn’t make me wrong.

Your lynch is needed. And I am pretty sure you’re scum.

[MathBlade]

Also, RCE never was willing to consider the possibility of Math being scum today
Saudade never was willing to consider the possibility of Math being scum today.
Shos also entered and didn't say much about it but pretty handily discredited my Math scumread
Bella too I think never was willing to consider Math scum today
Xtoxm... hasn't really taken a stance on anything

Obviously Iconeum exists and has the ~inno~
Math is math

Of the remaining players
Teacher thought Math scum made more sense than me at some point.
Skitter was getting frustrated and pissed off and thought he might be scum.
Ari actually voted him at one point.
I went after Mathblade at one point.
Flopz discredited the likelihood of Math being the protect which again seems significantly likely to come from T than S in this situation.

I really think Math has the illusion that their play was obvtown and deserves to be townread because all the scum players were never considering him and is only hunting in the pool of people that went after him even thought that's the exact opposite of what's happening here.

@Teacher Look here
RC says RCE scum
(He was imho wrong on Skitter here and contradicted his one of Skitter/Ari here but)
You get the jist and look at why.

Seriously RCE and RC had their own issues and back and forth that convinced me to vote RCE a bit.

RCE is scum here people.

[MathBlade]

What's my vc at?

Why are you concerned instead of giving reads/interacting?

[MathBlade]

I don't really want to interact with you tbh.

Then don’t and give reads elsewhere if you’re town.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: straws grasping at yet more elusive straws

Vote Count 3.5

RCEnigma

(3): MathBlade, Flopz, shos

MathBlade

(1): skitter30

Not Voting (6): RCEnigma, Aristophanes, Bellaphant, Xtoxm, teacher, Iconeum

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 11 PM PST on the 12th, in (expired on 2020-02-13 03:00:00).

This is definitely not enough votes on RCE.
If you’re not on RCE people you need to explain why.

[MathBlade]

Below is a Titus paraphrase: (I don’t agree but ...*shrug*)

Hey everyone,

My VCA says we should leave RCE alone and go after shos and Flopz, if I am wrong on teacher. The only scum on the Flopz wagon in 1.8 was shos(will explain why no RCE soon). Shos is in the run people over with a vehicle with lots of wheels spot. 1.13 and 1.14 leave the teacher longshot as possible. Back half of the worst wagon is loaded with lots of people that are possibly scummy. That suggests a flip worst, lynch RC strategy.

N1, Scum kill RCE to get Math and RC fighting like cats and dogs. Bella healed him.

D2, Opening, Flopz jumps on Ari mislynch when Shos wagoned. Rule of adjoining peoples, Flopz and teacher unlikely. Teacher likely townbeard. Confscum on skitter wagon with no counter. Skitter locktown for today. 2.8 is a neon lynch Shos sign. 2.11-2.15, Flopz waffles on whether to use a vehicle for manslaughter of an evil person or stick with Math v RC plan. Sausade self hammer suggests at least one scum on.

I say to lynch shos and Flopz.

——— End Titus paraphrase ———
I disagree just being a good teammate

Shos/flopz is a bullshit bracket to lynch in
It's actually scummy to even think it tbh

@ico/shos
Is it only scummy when Titus does it?
Or am I right in thinking Teacher can be scum with RCE?

>> Doesn’t vote RCE even with his narrowed world RCE is more than likely scum.
>> Then votes shos with almost nothing despite saying what I found earlier was not a slip.
Either shos is scum and slipped RC town or Shos is town and that isn’t a slip

Like teacher’s swap needs a hell of a lot more explanation
Because from my POV it looks like he can’t get me mislynched but is trying to see if Titus will convince me to vote shos.

[MathBlade]

Like if I could nuke RCE,Teacher,and Skitter and see their flips I think the game is over.

[MathBlade]

Ugh. Another fun 1v1 “caught!scum” go round with RC. Is this like round 6? (math/flopz/ari/duck/skitter/math/RCE/am I missing any??)

Honestly I could give af at this point. This game sucks, and the thread is unreadable. Hope you’re proud.

Can you actually read this please.

Just the last 5 pages.

I did. I think I see what you’ve said but I’m fairly drunk so want to sober do it.

Teachers response to RC is that he saw what RC was saying....
Yet he “townreads” RCE?

[MathBlade]

This is even worse than the saudade wagon lol. When I flip no one gets to argue RC as town. Not even a little bit. You guys don't get to Lynch TW by feeding into his bullshit then me for feeding into his bullshit and still consider a world that RC is town.

I agree.

This wagon is more telling of RC than Saud though as this seems more SvT and Saud v RC feels SvS or TVT

I would prefer not to change my vote until I talk to Skitter btw. Trust me to see it if she's SvS with RCE and I want to work with her in any other situation here.

RC said I wasn't trying to sort him.

You came up with 3 different, contradictory explanations for your Xtoxm push before you came up with this one.

Saud hammers before this conversation happens with Skitter.

I wonder why.

Like if I am wrong on traitor I am pretty sure teacher or Skitter is the last based on wagon resistance.

Titus has this pegged earlier and I don’t get why she changed at all.

[MathBlade]

I'm still really not in the mood for any of this.

Also I don't think there's a traitor but what do I know.

Also also I still think shos > xtoxm but I haven't read much of xtoxm's posts this phase so that is subjrct to change I guess.

If RCE is still on the table that is probably best slated for another phase imo.


Okay bye.

Uhm why is RCE better for tomorrow?

It’s clear you’re not in the mood but this needs a lot more explanation.

[MathBlade]

I'm still really not in the mood for any of this.

Also I don't think there's a traitor but what do I know.

Also also I still think shos > xtoxm but I haven't read much of xtoxm's posts this phase so that is subjrct to change I guess.

If RCE is still on the table that is probably best slated for another phase imo.


Okay bye.

Uhm why is RCE better for tomorrow?

It’s clear you’re not in the mood but this needs a lot more explanation.

You know what, hold on my answer to that. I just remembered I never did this yet:

Uggh do I need to read the last 10 pages where RC grills RCE and shows they're not understanding the game (from what I skimmed) and convinced Math and Saudade to vote RCE because, and I'm assuming here, he's feeling ingenuous and wrong in what he is saying and RC seems right to them for once?

Or did I mostly nail it.

No rush to read it

I really just did that whole thing for in case I die tonight.

How can I actually give a proper response when I skipped this entirely?

I'll do it as part of my read-up when I do finally get to this though.

Thank you.

I think RC’s opinion + RCE being jailkept is pretty damning.

If not I really would like to hear why your opinion outweighs RC’s by interacting with it and stating what is wrong about it or what overrides all that.

Because I think you’d need a pretty strong case considering RC died.

[MathBlade]

I can’t explain it but you’re different.

Things pings are rare but worth listening to.

It’s not enough to push you but you definitely are off.

math you've been pushing me for those reasons for like an entire dayphase
and again you're ignoring the '2+ years have gone by and my playstyle has changed in that timespan' thing
and instead keep on falling back on 'but she feels different to me !!!' to push me
which makes me feel like you're just trying to shade me because you're repeatedly ignoring relevant context

Did you ignore where I cited problematic posts? I am not ignoring it I am just pointing out what concerns me. No where recently have I cited meta.

[MathBlade]

individual chance of each slot being nk is ~9.1%

math nk: 9.1%
rce nk: 9.1%
rce makes kill = sum over remaining 9 slots = 81.8%

i'm p sure your math is wrong

Then what is the right math?

Because let’s assume there’s a typo. The general intent RCE is very likely scum is still there.

Why are you arguing minutia versus the actual point?

[MathBlade]

Ari you can keep babysitting him might as well change his diaper in a while
Ico you can keep being.. well you, like that one time you replaced into my game called all the scum town and all the town scum and that was it
skitter30???? ever since last game your reads were horse shit not gonna lie and if it werent for you getting night killed we'd never lynch Wake88 and won the game at lylo
MathBlade I've no qualms genuine attempts to read through this horseshit

Rule of three. Rule of three. The same rule of three as RCE before.
Plus the shade here was imho an attempt at distancing here and an attempt to buddy me.

If there is no traitor then RCE + Skitter is hella likely.

Here for starters.

[MathBlade]

You could quote their win % a bunch or something.

You mean discrediting Mathblade's play prowess then? Well, I would never have nightkilled them and Math responds significantly better to pocketing than what I did and given past history with the Titus siblings I have universally kept them around by letting them get their way and letting them lynch town, why didn't I let them do that here? At least one of the people Math has pushed (Skitter/Ari) has to be scum unless it's literally the 3 of us.

^^ Oooh look either Skitter or Ari is scum per RC.

Seriously if you don’t listen to me listen to RC.

Another one @skitter

[MathBlade]

i can be here till ~10:30 est but then i gotta bounce, i have to be at work an hour and half early tomorrow, fml

Hey skitty! I too am around to chat atm if you got shit for me

I also have a 12 hour work day tomorrow so I feel ya ahaha

hey, how are you still feeling about the shos wagon ?

Heya!

I like the makeup of the wagon minus Flopz who should do SOMETHING but I kinda want to give the guy a chance here. He's legit putting efforts forth and I want to see what he has to say! And I have a feeling it might take an extra day phase to get that tbh. No harm in letting him live the day tbh because if he doesn't deliver he's done.

What do you think of a shift to Saudade?

flopz is scaring me tbh,
i kinda feel like he's had a lot of time to sort of gather thoguths and like ~play~ he's been here since mid-day1 already (like pre rc/tw i think because i remember he voted you during the ehight of your wagon in one of his first posts) and i still feel like we don't have much out of him

rc can you repeat why you're townreading flopz again? because i find that read to be kinda inexplicable.
also the bella one

i'm ok with shifting to saudade
VOTE: saudade

Yeah just okay to shift

Not a skitter driven wagon
It was a skitter sheep

Here’s another

[MathBlade]

oh those
it's kinda silly to expect me to respond to that as either alignment given that i didn't write it
like what am i even supposed to say in response
what would be a 'good' answer from me in resposne to you citing that post?

Looking back at RC’s post and seeing what you agree/disagree with.
Looking at the context of the posts and seeing what benefit saud scum gains here.
If you think RCE is town and I am scum explaining how/why RCE was shot over RC and me and which scum does that.

Whatever world you’re pushing has to match facts. It seems like you’re avoiding them.

[MathBlade]

also 'you feel different' is, at its essence, a meta push

Which is why I am not doing that. I am trying to explain.

Pretty much you and teacher both have interacted with RCE posts and just ignored the probable and substituted your own reality.

RCE is probably scum. If you want to ignore that in favor of me or shos being scum you have to provide a case for it.

[MathBlade]

Gonna be afk all day Monday so use it as you will.

I still don’t see any cases or reasoning for shos scum. Just complaining that you can’t lynch me and don’t want to vote RCE in a whole lot of words without addressing the probability problems.

The closest you’ve said is we can’t know what happened, which is true. But you’re still not addressing the probability problem in that RCE trying to kill another player is the most probable event occurring assuming Bella’s claim is true.

Even if we assume RCE is town.

You then need to address why scum!shos + scum!saud shoots RCE or me. If you can’t do that then your reads are very likely wrong.

It’s not a matter of saying they could have and drop it. You need to think through the logical conclusions and how we end up here. If you want the shos wagon to take off you need to do that. Because right now it reads like the RC wagon yesterday. Me being pushing a wagon scum want rather than Saud. They hop on. RC pushes Saud. Saud is winning. Scum shop for counter wagons but RCE stays on RC hoping it would take off.

With the theory RCE scum having failed to kill RC the first time it’s much more likely they strongmanned RC to get rid of the PR and tried to kill him N1.

Until and unless you can explain what happens in a town RCE world to that kind of level it’s going to look like hogwash.

I have work and D&D tomorrow so you should be able to formulate a theory if you’re right. I just don’t think you are.

And I disagree on monopolizing things but consider this similar to what RC did with Saud. Floor is yours prove the theory wrong.

[MathBlade]

Can’t respond due to promise but I would like a chance to respond to teacher before day end assuming RCE is scum like I think he is so we can sort Teacher and Skitter.

[MathBlade]

Can’t respond due to promise but I would like a chance to respond to teacher before day end assuming RCE is scum like I think he is so we can sort Teacher and Skitter.

[MathBlade]

I think it’s shos+Ari
Titus thinks shos+flopz still

I am self imposing geriatric rules due to RL and prior stupidity

Shos +Ari is the only thing that makes sense for nightkill
But we may need my mislynch to prove it.

Gotta go

[MathBlade]

VOTE: shos

Titus controls my vote too.

[MathBlade]

math/teacher
math/skitter
ari/skitter
ari/teacher

if it's not one of these I think we already lost

Now that the doctor apparently remembers what happened yesterday (which might have been impt to know last night) you want to revisit this as well?

I think these theories are horrible.

I am half tempted to lead a mislynch wagon on myself to make sure you all decide between me and RCE shot and that I don’t go to lylo.

Then with my town flip it becomes infinitely more probable I was shot and Ari was scum with shos and Plum and my day one RVS reads were spot on. Then I got messed up by RC being RC and myself being myself and just blah. The problem is whether or not you all will listen to the town!idiot after I die. Two and three I kinda want a do over and wish I was tunnelly me. I hate not being tunnelly me. I think we already win if I was :/

[MathBlade]

Scum will most likelly kill the doc regardless of what happens in the day and eventually we are even, a nolynch will happen. So it's a question of when, and the sooner it happens the more info we have when we do Lynch. That doc claim is definitely not conftown, considering that RCE flipped town and so did bella. The only thing I can think of that makes one think he is conftown is an agenda of confirmation on a partner. He is by no means conftown.

Also if you expect me to remember shit in this game, sorry lads. So can anyone summarize the setup, including flips+claims?

Why lynch a functional vt over doc?

Skit, can you speak to Icos scum meta?

I’ve hard hard townread the play this game, but the nk is ????, which of course is also wine.

I don’t think Ico is scum here. I think the Bella kill was done in case Bella lied about N1/N2. There’s no reason to trust the claim. She could have been odd night for about the same amount of power. It implies a smart scum like shos (or if you want to mislynch me me) that knows mechanics.

It’s rather telling shos hasn’t caught up even just on the last day yet was responding. He’s clearly faking it. Between that and the hammer I am just gonna go with I was shot for being 3/3 on day one and shos/Ari.

Skitter if you’re going to mislynch me do it now or join me on shos or Ari please.

[MathBlade]

Don’t get me wrong I wholeheartedly think for my definition of balance Ico should be scum but Mafiascum balance says probably both town.

[MathBlade]

Worth noting Plum said no to voting Ari and yes to TW.

If RC v TW is TvT

Plum+Ari is a possible thing.

Right before end of day on day one......

I died ....Plum is Shos and Ari is alive.

RC and TW was TvT.

Can we pretend my day one was good and wish RC taking over day one just didn’t happen like please?

[MathBlade]

And I just... can't find that third scum without Ari.

If TW is town and Ari is scum and you’re town I reserve the right to not be treated like an idiot by you anymore.

For posterity’s sake

Now I am gonna just stop posting since I am breaking geriatric rules I think.

But damn it please either lynch me or in shos/Ari please.

[MathBlade]

bella kill is +++town equity for teacher btw

explain?

Ico who’d you save?

math

You scumread me yet saved me? *confused*

[MathBlade]

math/teacher
math/skitter
ari/skitter
ari/teacher

if it's not one of these I think we already lost

Then these are scumteam reads?

I townread you I just want you to help explain?

You don’t scumread me yet you say if I am town we lose more often than not?

Like can you explain please? In a different way because I don’t follow at all.

[MathBlade]

But obviously my reads are donkey ballz because 1) i'm alive and 2 ) RCE flipped town.

I don't fucking know right now who scum is. Have no clue.

I was surprised too.

That’s why I am okay with my mislynch

Because then it shos I was likely shot over RC if I am dead.

Mainly I am more sure on Ari but Titus controls my vote :/

[MathBlade]

Why lynch a functional vt over doc?

Skit, can you speak to Icos scum meta?

I’ve hard hard townread the play this game, but the nk is ????, which of course is also wine.

Have you considered Bella might have lied about being N-1-2 gated to try and survive? I did. Bella was conftown and unprotecteable by me.
You hard townread me and defended me during massclaim but now all of a sudden you want to shade me?

Ico please let it go. Teacher if scum is kinda bad at it. They defended RC when we were TvTing and tried to save RCE. They are trying to sort you. They could have easily just went with RCE flow

Much as I hate saying this based on how bad Skitter reads me she is probably town just with a math is scum bias.

And we may need to mislynch me to lynch in Ari/shos tomorrow if Skitter still thinks I am scum. Because she cannot go into lylo like that or we lose.

[MathBlade]

Mainly I am more sure on Ari but Titus controls my vote :/

what's the ari scumcase?

1) I was tunneling Ari end of day one
2) Ari has done jack crap all game
3) Ari spent most if not all D1 buddying RC and me
4) Worth repeating point 2 Ari has done nothing all game
5-99) Dat hammer when teacher and I were talking. Granted we probably still would have lynched RCE but scumAri probably didn’t want teacher and me trying to meld.

[MathBlade]

like, lynch in shos/ari today

i'm the NK

tomorrow is:

1.Mathblade Vorkuta
2.Aristophanes
5.Xtoxm
6.Flopz Thilbert
7.teacher
8.skitter30

if shos/ari flip town, you are in a 4v2 situation, where you can no lynch. Scum NK probs in xtoxm/flopz.

1.Mathblade Vorkuta
2.Aristophanes
5.Xtoxm
7.teacher
8.skitter30

3v2

bleh

And there in lies the problem if I am wrong and if Skitter scumreads me we lose.

I am pretty confident it’s shos and Ari. It’s the only thing that makes sense. I tried looking for RCE reads and came up blank. If someone can find RCE reads end of day one to sheep lemme know otherwise I think shos/Ari explains nightkills

[MathBlade]

what if we all just gave our top 2 scumreads, maybe in a popcorn format?

Sure shos/Ari popcorn you

I gotta sleep good night

[MathBlade]

I think shos/Ari explains nightkills

go on?

Night one shot for good reads
Night two strongman RC
Night three Kill Bella in case lying about N1/N2 and never getting lynched

[MathBlade]

And there in lies the problem if I am wrong and if Skitter scumreads me we lose.

The thing js that i dont think we lose by lynching you.

Who do u prioritize in ari/shos?

Shos because Titus agrees
She keeps trying to convince me on Flopz but I don’t see it.

If I wasn’t playing with Titus it would be 50/50

[MathBlade]

It’s rather telling shos hasn’t caught up even just on the last day yet was responding. He’s clearly faking it. Between that and the hammer I am just gonna go with I was shot for being 3/3 on day one and shos/Ari.

Skitter if you’re going to mislynch me do it now or join me on shos or Ari please.

I agree with u on shos, actually. It looks fake that he's saying he doesnt remember things like massclaim happening when i know he participated in it.

@shos is hito/rest of your team still reading?

Also ur still my preferred lynch by a fairly large margin

I remembered that some have claimed, just didn't know if that was everyone. Don't misrep me

Also I do apologize for my lazy play, but yeah, not quite existing in the first 200 pages kinda takes its toll.

By Poe, I am left with Ari/math/xtom. Admittedly I don't actually scumread those three (only xtomx), but I truly hard townread teacher and Skittles and it appears that everyone believes ico so .

I think a NL asap is best; if there's actually a doc, scum will shoot him because another successful doc gets is another mislynch. If they don't, we get valuable info.

Rule of three Ari is scum with shos. And no lynch sucks

[MathBlade]

Skitter stop prancing around like you own the thread. You are still a suspect.

Nice shade

Not really I was the only one who pushed her. She’s not after being right on RCE

[MathBlade]

I think shos/Ari explains nightkills

go on?

Night one shot for good reads
Night two strongman RC
Night three Kill Bella in case lying about N1/N2 and never getting lynched

Is this assuming you were the N1 target?

Yes and RCE had no reads other than RC scum

[MathBlade]

My read on u didnt really change so much as my reads on others have worsened and i'm prioritizing them

Who do u want to lynch today?

Fair enough, I'm leaning towards a Shos lynch atm but I'm also looking at you. Before giving a more definitive answer I'm going to need to have some fun digging through ISO's which I should hopefully do in the weekend.
I still think Maths is Town but I'm waiting for his response to Ico about his Shos + Ari solve that will explain the NKs.

To quote Mean Girls “Stop trying to make Skitter happen Flopz”

[MathBlade]

I think my team sorta stopped reading once I got a grip on the game
It's my bday week so I'm slow on reading and responding properly mescuzzy

Why is this an I think vs I know?

Wouldn’t you be talking with them if you’re town?

[MathBlade]

Teacher I was quiet due to sickness from hell
Still have it
And a promise to not steer
Can you tell me why you prefer Ari over shos?

[MathBlade]

I'm not gonna push Skitter anymore after looking at some old Sausage posts. Where he votes her (4299 4306) and as soon as he realises the wagon is going nowhere, is the first to jump ship and then starts hard TRing her (4543 and beyond). I don't think Scum would ever do that to a partner, that would be really weird. Also, the constant weird remarks in Skitters direction would just add unnecesary attention to the pair of them than anything else tbh.

Who do you scumread then?

[MathBlade]

VLA fever 101

[MathBlade]

Almost like the main wagon is scum

[MathBlade]

Here's a quick layout of why a NL today is best.

1. We mislynch anyone today, assuming Ico is conftown
>>scum NK ico. we are in mylo - it is best to nolynch - and scum can pick who they want in lylo.
2. We no lynch today, assuming ico is conftown
>>OPTION 1: scum kill ico. Then we proceed with the same lynch, except we need 1 less townie to get this done, but alas, ico is gone, so it is literally the same input/output. exactly the same as 1.
>>OPTION 2: scum do not kill ico. then there's an option that ico saves someone, and we earn a mislynch, and if not, we NL and scum have to kill ico, thus giving us more control on who gets to lylo.

Either way, we don't *lose* anything by nolynching, and we *can* earn anything.

Also, if there's still some of you who do not 100% believe ico is town, this will solve it for you.

Yes a lynch carries a risk of mislynch but it also provides hints as to who scum is.

Why are you not considering the option that we lynch scum?

[MathBlade]

Almost like the main wagon is scum

See that's the kinda crap you cant just say when the wagons are 2-1-1 and there are 4 not voting.

I'll get on tonight after the kiddos go down.

Yes it absolutely is. Scum can’t hop on the main wagon
If they boost one alternate it is obvi mislynch
And the other wagon is scum too

That’s exactly what a 2-1-1 stall says.
Shos scum
Ari scum
I am the unsellable mislynch

[MathBlade]

Honestly thinking ico is scum after nokilling N1.

@6462: yeah, I know that. I also know none of your alignments and whether or not scum had even made a kill. As I have stated, if you had read my posts, I think it is a perfectly viable option to nokill after a stupid information-less D1 like the one here;

especially since you know there is no cop (doesn't go with detective). So no, that perhaps makes RC likely town, but not confirmed

- and it definitely does not make you town in any way.

@6463:
I have read everything after page 200, perhaps most of pages 180-200. ISOed xtomx fully, skimmed through saudades ISO. Buts and pieces of various other things like posts which my teammates literally directed me to go read (mostly RCE and Ari I think) and any posts that get mentioned in recent discussions.
Does this help.?

@6465: I did know about it eventually. It just doesn't make anyone conftown. My teammates have townread both of you regardless of the claim iirc, so that didn't come up I guess since most talk was about their scumreads, not townreads.

@6466: nope. If you think 'caught up' means 'have read all 250 pages and remember them by heart's then yes, it's a lie; but on my end, I had to read up over the pages you guys blab when I'm asleep, iirc that was 217-237 and after than some 240-245 or something. Your mudslinging is noted

6467: some.more words twisting!!! Your misrep of 'will do nothing to the game's is not nearly what I said. I said stop looking for the entire scumteam - instead, hunt them one by one, here, take xtomx for ezample. Your misrep sucks ass.

@6469: you do realize that scum can probably kill people at night, yes?
If we nolynch we get the information of who gets killed. Since we are even number of players now, a death is practically equal to a cop result chosen by the mafia. Et voila, information!

The bolder looks like a scumslip that confirms RC town and Ico town (as if we needed more for RC)

You know implies that he already knew it.

VOTE: shos

Can we lynch shos already?

[MathBlade]

Also previous, GAMMA called flopz bad based on D1 alone
HITO complained about the transition between this post to this one, feels like WKing of Bella

..I asked hito for his notes about ari/xtomx, we'll see what he brings up lol


Do I have agreement that we NL today and choose the lynch of tomorrow?

No

You are wet noodling to protect Ari (my opinion) or Flopz (Titus’s)

[MathBlade]

Flopz 5260 is a stupid and really bad post. Removing responsibility by sheeping a global townread, no way to read or point fingers at him, scummy shit.

I was prodded while on holiday and 50 pages had gone by. I felt Ico's (A solid TR) take on you worth joining the wagon. It might've been lazy but I stand by it contextually.

Also previous, GAMMA called flopz bad based on D1 alone
HITO complained about the transition between this post to this one, feels like WKing of Bella

Do I have agreement that we NL today and choose the lynch of tomorrow?

My D1 has been agreed equivocally to be bad, sth I don't disagree with.

Isn't that how Ari acts to everyone.

You are never getting that wish, literally every single person disagrees on this being even an ok idea.

Who do you scumread? Still waiting on that answer

[MathBlade]

Don't mind math, he's stuck this game.

It's pretty clear to everyone you had a big SR of your own, being Xtoxm. If he refuses to see that, it's on him.

@Math, you are pushing shos over an imaginary scumslip. Bad content ok, but that's NAI rather then scum!indicative. At least there's solving intent in his ISO, which is 100% lacking in Xtoxm (only slot that you can say that of).

Shos is also hard scumreading Xtoxm, so there's no reason for you to lynch shos if we can get good information about him by flipping Xtoxm first. You can reconsider your scumread if Xtoxm is scum, OR you get your lynch if Xtoxm is town.

Can I pretty please tunnel Shos now people?

It would make an Ico + Xtoxm townblock and I am exhausted and after saving Xtoxm from mislynch earlier (yes we mislynched RCE but that was mechanically needed) I just really want shos who really seems like just spamming here

[MathBlade]

@Math and @Skitter

i feel like i'm running out of people that i want to wagon which means that i'm very desperately wrong somewhere, but i don't know where
and the two people i scumread the most aren't doable right now {math and flopz}

bella/ico - town
rce - i don't think scum reacts to this entire nk/alien thing the way he has
ari - i think is just town on meta
you - i'm not sure where it happened exactly but over the course of today (i.e. day3) you've become a townread too

which leaves {math, flopz, shos, xtoxm}

math and flopz aren't doable today
and xtoxm i don't really townread on play but the neighborize kinda points to town
which kinda leaves shos. was townreading him for some of the stuff he was saying at daystart but as i mull it over i don't really remember why that was exactly

the very very early game thing pointed to {plum/tris}, and tris-slot/saudade did flip scum
and shos did very staunchly object to saudade in favor of xtoxm. i think that whole interaction means that shos/xtoxm can't be scum together
and saudade was trying to rile up rc as shos was getting wagoned

let me check daystart to see what i was thinking there, some parts of the game are starting to blur together in my head

I no longer think that we should lynch shos first today. His resistance to the saudade wagon was gross, but it's sucu an explicitly bad position for scum to take on a partner that i'm no longer convinced that they're svs

Also shos's exasperation at the gamestate at eod yesterday seems townie

this.
looking at it again i'm not sure if his positioning yesterday was a good reason to townread him

i need to recheck the exasperation too

Spoiler:

???
If you could please stop misrepping I'd appreciate it
If I had a working theory which I firmly believe in I'd be voting you

Am I?

I don't mind if this loynch fails to go through, NL is an eligible option the way I see it. You're all going to get a big fat I TOLD YOU SO when you say 'shit, what do we do with this one' in lategame regarding xtomx

I don't mind if this loynch fails to go through, NL is an eligible option the way I see it. You're all going to get a big fat I TOLD YOU SO when you say 'shit, what do we do with this one' in lategame regarding xtomx

What is it with you and no lynching?

What is it with you and xtoxm!?

Wtf is it with you and not wanting to see Saudade lynched!?!?!?!?

It's called
An opinion
Democrats, etc etc

Also it's 3.34 am haaaaaaaaaghhh

.....???????

12 alive
5 confirmed town

Means 4 scum in 7 players remaining

Do the math.

Intrigue me
How did we get to 5 conftowns
Just yesterday I was told it is 2
And then we agreed on 0

Why are you guys stupid

i think it was these posts (or more accurately, 1st, 3rd, and 4th)
but looking at them again i don't see them as townie as i did at the time

and the 2nd post reminded me about the no lynch thing which was god-awful

ok i think i'm willing to explore this
VOTE: shos

for the record i explicitly do not think math is town, i just want that to be very clear

If shos is scum, I think that p much clears the both of you. Skitter reconsidering to shos, and math hard pushing shos today could really help solve this game

. Skitter, despite maths shenanigans previous day, how do you feel about him pushing shos like this? @Math, your thoughts on skitter's feelings wrt shos?

One thing you cannot learn -- and do not let Math get away with even thinking to claim otherwise -- is Math's alignment. If RCE!town, then the lack of a N1 does not make Math anything approaching conf!town.

yes i would like to highlight this point as well ^

I'm really scared of skitter + teacher, so if shos does flip town I think you guys need to lynch in these 2 tomorrow.

what if we all just gave our top 2 scumreads, maybe in a popcorn format?

Math >>>>> shos >>> ari

@Skitter, math's entire solve right now is literally this, minus himself obviously. Like, literaly shos + ari. Can you at least engage with math over that?

Skitter was prob town when RCE flipped town and I think I said as much earlier

[MathBlade]

im at l-1, math

Riiiiight /s
@Flopz

[MathBlade]

My thoughts on Skitter’s feelings are she has seen me as scum
She is rightfully paranoid of my scum game but she has a huge bias she needs to work through

[MathBlade]

Math what do you think about Teacher?

Probably town would only re-evaluate if shos is town which I find laughable.

[MathBlade]

I am not changing all the pronouns in this it was hard enough to paraphrase.

Titus just hasn’t shut up about it sooo

Spoiler: Titus’s VCA that i dont agree with

Dear Town,

Titus rapping at you. I've worded this a little funky to make this stuff easier for Mathblade to rephrase and repost yeah.

The answer is shos and Flopz. I'll answer why in play and then in VCA terms. Most of y'all favor play over VCA anyway.

Looking at the N1 no kill. This was almost certainly RCE being protected from scum using a mind blender, with an outside shot of Math. I say almost certain because of what the result scum wanted for day 2. Scum wanted RC tunnelled, it just bit them in the hindquarters. Sausuade got caught doing it. When RC gets tunnelled and the game focuses on him, he turns into a barcisstic who dominates this thing we do for fun. It's why I blacklisted him. If I knew Math and RC would have to do this thing for fun together, I wouldn't have had Math on my team. It was a powder keg that exploded and I bear responsibility for that. RCE dying would have caused Math to tunnel on RCE and that happened anyway.

Looking at the Night 2 kill – It's RC. Why would scum spend all that time getting a drama fight to happen if they wanted to kill RC? Their plan changed when a) RC figured this out and b) Math turned into a big, vocal and distracting wrong voice.

Looking at the Night 3 kill – Why was Bella killed over Ico? The first, and wrong, instinct is to try and think well maybe Ico's scum. That's unlikely. Ico and Bella's roles likely co-exist to create confusion. Matching with the scum profile, Bella was shot because she was doing nothing, conftown and scum want the gamestate the same.

Shos and Flopz are widely considered as town. This is because they have sat back and let town tear itself apart. If I must be lynched to prove it, fine. Do not ever lynch teacher, Ari, or Skitter.

Now, onto my VCA. I'm not including the colored posts. That would be impossible for Math to rephrase according to the game rules. I expect this post to take him one or two sixty minute periods to paraphrase without it. My VCA will also be highly truncated due to the rephrasing requirements that put Math in an uneviable position. (Math commentary try two days off and on with a fever...you use a lot of words brevity is better)

RVS, shos and Flopz slots chainsaw each other. Suspicious but not auto guilty at this point.

1.8

The Flopz wagon stalls out when town all jump on. Funny.


1.19

The worst gets wagoned against RC. I postuate the RC wagon is entirely town, and this is where the scumteam decided plan rile up RC was going into effect give or take two Vcs.


2.6
This is where I locktown Skitter. Scum are on skitter with no counterwagon whatsoever. Look who skitter is wishing to be removed from the game... shos.

2.8-2.9

Shos gets five votes, none of them scum. Remember this too. Look at Sausaude executing plan rile up RC as well.

2.11
Biggest counterpoint in my theory. Why flopz pick shos over RC? Because to survive scum have thrown distancing votes throughout the game. They'll suppose my VCA is more simplistic than it is. Flopz is bussing to be a late game carry.

2.13

Similar bus by Flopz in late game spot.

2.14

Flopz diverts to try and rile up Math and kill the Sausade wagon.

2.15

Scum can't get a wagon to take on town that vote Sausade.

2.16 to End

Sausade begs to be lynched

Day 3

This is Math's uncontrolled insistance that RCE had to be lynched. Scum didn't fight back. Scum will turn this around on Math.(Math commentary literally not a thing since mechanically RCE had to go. This always was the right play and I feel no regret over it.).

Sorry Math this took so long.

Now for fucks sake I did what was asked and this day can end. Awesome

*goes to get more meds*

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: spoilered for size

Honestly thinking ico is scum after nokilling N1.

@6462: yeah, I know that. I also know none of your alignments and whether or not scum had even made a kill. As I have stated, if you had read my posts, I think it is a perfectly viable option to nokill after a stupid information-less D1 like the one here;

especially since you know there is no cop (doesn't go with detective). So no, that perhaps makes RC likely town, but not confirmed

- and it definitely does not make you town in any way.

@6463:
I have read everything after page 200, perhaps most of pages 180-200. ISOed xtomx fully, skimmed through saudades ISO. Buts and pieces of various other things like posts which my teammates literally directed me to go read (mostly RCE and Ari I think) and any posts that get mentioned in recent discussions.
Does this help.?

@6465: I did know about it eventually. It just doesn't make anyone conftown. My teammates have townread both of you regardless of the claim iirc, so that didn't come up I guess since most talk was about their scumreads, not townreads.

@6466: nope. If you think 'caught up' means 'have read all 250 pages and remember them by heart's then yes, it's a lie; but on my end, I had to read up over the pages you guys blab when I'm asleep, iirc that was 217-237 and after than some 240-245 or something. Your mudslinging is noted

6467: some.more words twisting!!! Your misrep of 'will do nothing to the game's is not nearly what I said. I said stop looking for the entire scumteam - instead, hunt them one by one, here, take xtomx for ezample. Your misrep sucks ass.

@6469: you do realize that scum can probably kill people at night, yes?
If we nolynch we get the information of who gets killed. Since we are even number of players now, a death is practically equal to a cop result chosen by the mafia. Et voila, information!

The bolder looks like a scumslip that confirms RC town and Ico town (as if we needed more for RC)

You know implies that he already knew it.

VOTE: shos

Can we lynch shos already?

Also previous, GAMMA called flopz bad based on D1 alone
HITO complained about the transition between this post to this one, feels like WKing of Bella

..I asked hito for his notes about ari/xtomx, we'll see what he brings up lol


Do I have agreement that we NL today and choose the lynch of tomorrow?

No

You are wet noodling to protect Ari (my opinion) or Flopz (Titus’s)

Math, your repetitive attempts to find 'scumslips' look fake as shit.
1. Have you seen, ever, a normal game with both a cop and a detective?

2. what the hell is wet noodling lol

1. Yes not on this site. I have been playing mafia for more than 20 years so I’ve seen a lot. It is rare though.
2. It’s when you play intentionally bad to die quick

[MathBlade]

That’s a lot of words defending shos and pushing a scumread.

[MathBlade]

Not pushing** fuck autocorrect

[MathBlade]

Hey, so Im going to be reading through a bit and working on solving solo, but Im down to jam if people want.

@Skit, fwiw, I think Shos's no lynch thing makes sense for someone with a math background. To be clear, I dont think it makes sense in real life, but I can see it from their perspective. Like, pure odds wise, its changes us from:
6/2...nl....3/2 worst case (25% followed by 40% chance)
to
nl....5/2....3/2 (29% followed by 40%)

That said, given that Ico is (sadly) town, its NEVER going to happen nor make sense today.

Just...no. Those odds assume failure. Like rip.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: the alluringly subtle fragrance of an ouroboros

Vote Count 2.6

skitter30

(4): MathBlade, Iconeum, Saudade, Xtoxm

shos

(2): skitter30, RadiantCowbells

Aristophanes

(2): Flopz, teacher

RadiantCowbells

(1): RCEnigma

MathBlade

(1): Aristophanes

Not voting (2): shos, Bellaphant

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

@math:

can you get titus to explain this vc again?
if it's shos+flopz+saudade scared of me trying to lynch shos why weren't flopz + shos on me here, why were they wool-gathering on ari and not voting

also i don't udnerstand how the nka points to shos and flopz in particular

Left a ping for her.

[MathBlade]

My thoughts on Skitter’s feelings are she has seen me as scum
She is rightfully paranoid of my scum game but she has a huge bias she needs to work through

i really don't think i'm biased tho, i don't understand how your like entire day3 comes from town

It comes from the idea that the person jailed is almost always scum.
And in the case they weren’t then my day one reads were likely correct.

That’s literally a mafia 101 thing.
Barring an extraordinary explanation if there is no kill and the person was scumread (like RCE was by RC and myself) you lynch them. I have gotten out of many a similar scrapes as scum by making town forget mafia 101. We had the mislynch to spare if it was wrong and it gave a strong indication that before RC got all “I am taking over the game from Math” I was on the right track.

This also matches Saud scum which because of RC’s antics my reads changed.

If we could have lynched Ari day one or RC day one and Ari day two I think the gamestate would be a lot better especially if Ari is scum as I think he is.

[MathBlade]

Hey, so Im going to be reading through a bit and working on solving solo, but Im down to jam if people want.

@Skit, fwiw, I think Shos's no lynch thing makes sense for someone with a math background. To be clear, I dont think it makes sense in real life, but I can see it from their perspective. Like, pure odds wise, its changes us from:
6/2...nl....3/2 worst case (25% followed by 40% chance)
to
nl....5/2....3/2 (29% followed by 40%)

That said, given that Ico is (sadly) town, its NEVER going to happen nor make sense today.

i have a math background ...
given that nobody is seriously considering ico as a possible lynch today, i think it's inherently suboptimal

Yup it’s all kinds of bad. Shos scum is trying to shade the block.

[MathBlade]

@Skitter Titus says she’s with her goddaughter atm and doesn’t have her notes and she will get to me tomorrow and I hopefully will be available to answer then.

I still do believe that there’s definitely here we are missing
And yes I do believe that was accurate based upon how day one ended

If you were me you’d do the same. Right now teacher is literally pushing a theory that I was right day one. Based on what we knew I was likely shot. That’s still the most likely world.

That’s still what makes sense with a scum neighborizer.

Pedit I quoted it earlier give me a bit to find my quote I am posting slower due to flu.

[MathBlade]

skitter reaction probtown
already townreading tris
spicy read rc town
also think that rce is town
also think that creature is town

the worst leantown but easily an error vector
bella leantown

xtoxm null, intentionally making themselves unreadable
ico null, unintentionally making themselves unreadable
thilbert?? who? have they posted?

scumreads

ari for reasons given
mathblade tonally plus associatively
plum just isn't doing anything that gives townvibes

i'll continue reading but i'm not gonna post much unless someone asks me for something specific so gl.

See here for an example. He’s had plum deep down on his scum list. But yet has teacher on his town.

RC+Teacher+Bella/Plum (probably Plum) makes sense due to RC meta but it requires RC scum for teacher to be.

And mainly I think we find this out by lynching Ari.

So I am focusing on a few possible worlds (in order of priority)
RC+TW+1 (maybe even Ari)
RC+Teacher+Bella/Plum (more likely Plum)
TW+Ico+?? (Only works if RC is town) ?? Possibility of deep wolf
RC and TW are TvT and have made this game unbearable and scum are lurking and taking advantage

mathb, you've been stellar this game. i can tell you've improved a lot. just please don't waste the d1 lynch on ari.

But he’s fucking scum.

Asking between RC/TW is probably SvS or TvT and like it just sucks.

If it’s SvS then the worst gets lynched every time and Raybells rides the cred,

If it’s TvT a lynch on lolcatting obvScum is gone

Like I get wanting to solve it but at what cost?

Who said SVS or TvT and everyone disagreed? This dude.

Like I am good at finding clusters bad stuff invididual people
It’s why I hunt by teams rather than people
It’s a lot harder to hide associations than anything else.

[MathBlade]

ico/xtoxm/teacher

Sub you for me and Im with you on this towncore.

Tbh, while Im not at all confident about Flopz, Im not scummreading the slot either. Flipping it, moreover, would do just about nada for me.

So we are in the same lynchpool too, but you and I have reverse orders.

Tell me, is it worth trying to sell Ari to you, or should I save the time on digging since Ive kinda headlined my case and it doesnt seem like it moved you much?

I am for that towncore add Skitter

[MathBlade]

so what, you were nk'd so that scum could push the tvs narrative?

That and d1 I scumread Tris and Plum and Ari which coincidentally looked like the scum team before RC demanded the worst.

[MathBlade]

Math, if youre town, youre the village idiot spewing about how the claims arent trustworthy but we must lynch RCE because of the claims, so please dont egopost.

I don’t trust the balance however I am working with what my townblock gives me

If you want the “balance” then you Lynch the person jailed and I am working on getting the evidence it’s hard on a phone.

[MathBlade]

A good example of why you lynch the person jailed (or repeatedly jail them) is from

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... Statistics

Comes from Newbie 1209

You either repeatedly jail the person jailed or if you can’t you lynch them.

Especially in a “low power” game. Tierce was widely townread that game.

Iirc Tierce went more in depth about it in the thread.

But you absolutely if you believe that’s the setup lynch RCE there every time.

[MathBlade]

Right, I meant more about seeking credit on the SvS or TvT thing, since I was fairly clearly calling it TvT as well and pushing off both them. Its just kinda gross.

The Ari thing from you (and RC, and RCE, and Bella) is why I want them today.

@Skit, I saw you on the associatives. It will happen but this is a hell of a game to slog through.....

so what, you were nk'd so that scum could push the tvs narrative?

That and d1 I scumread Tris and Plum and Ari which coincidentally looked like the scum team before RC demanded the worst.

i'm not sure tris/plum/ari actually make sense given how the day1 ari wagon went

also if scum wanted to push the tvs narrative they would have needed to try to mislynch rc day2 which didn't really happen

I disagree on that wagon analysis.

I am okay voting Ari but Titus isn’t and she controls my vote.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: mayonnaise vivisect

Vote Count 1.17

Aristophanes

(4): MathBlade, teacher, Flopz, skitter30

RadiantCowbells

(2): Xtoxm, the worst

the worst

(2): tris, RadiantCowbells

Plum

(1): RCEnigma

Flopz

(1): Aristophanes

tris

(1): Plum

Not voting (2): Bellaphant, Iconeum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to two weeks from day start, in (expired on 2020-01-16 22:00:00).

Spoiler: phenomenology aardvark

Vote Count 1.18

Aristophanes

(4): MathBlade, teacher, Flopz, skitter30

RadiantCowbells

(3): Xtoxm, the worst, Aristophanes

the worst

(2): tris, RadiantCowbells

Plum

(1): RCEnigma

tris

(1): Plum

Not voting (2): Bellaphant, Iconeum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to two weeks from day start, in (expired on 2020-01-16 22:00:00).

Spoiler: glistening the grass falls down down below

Vote Count 1.19

the worst

(5): tris, skitter30, RadiantCowbells, Plum, MathBlade

RadiantCowbells

(3): Xtoxm, the worst, Aristophanes

Aristophanes

(2): teacher, Flopz

Plum

(1): RCEnigma

Not voting (2): Bellaphant, Iconeum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to two weeks from day start, in (expired on 2020-01-16 22:00:00).

what were scum doing here-ish if it's ari/tris/plum?

@Skitter re wagons
Lurking til RC wore the wagon down and then Plum lurked just enough to vote TW
I called Plum out for being willing to vote TW but not Ari

None of their votes moved except Plum and Ari

[MathBlade]

ari was very very very nearly lynched tho
so neither tried to form any cw and were content to just lurk it out and watch him get wagoned?

More like they read like newb scum that didn’t know what to do
It matches the apathy.
And Ari’s scum meta is to lurk and be buddy per Molla and Titus

[MathBlade]

Newbie 1209

FFS, you say "almost always" and I ask for evidence, and you come up with a single game????? But no. If that would work, "Normal 2016" right back at you. JKs are slightly (but only slightly) more likely to keep a killer than killer. Not "almost always"

That wasn’t just one game if you look closely.

It was one of the most veteran players on site with a guideline

It’s a precautionary measure against deep wolves.

I am not sure what you’re hoping to achieve here

I am doing what I can on mobile with flu for a sitewide standard that’s existed since as far back as I can remember.

Are you aiming to convince me 20+ years of experience is wrong? This is probably not the space and detracts from hunting.

What is your goal?

[MathBlade]

This has been something that I have been aware of and avoided as scum. It’s like literally just is.

Look at Shadowrun where I was a “jailkeeper” (Alien) and universally townread. Had to coordinate against a town doctor to prevent these types of scenarios. It turned into 2 v a billion and my scum partner was always in the pool.

It’s just something I’ve seen a lot

[MathBlade]

First question
1) You have resisted too many pushes that wouldn’t have any scum equity. Where as Skitter wasn’t entirely wrong on reads which means that it required a reanalysis of her slot.
2) it’s a theory but it’s one I can’t explain at all. I have stated it a lot and more just sort of went I hope it’s wrong because if it’s right we’re fucked and we are aiming to lynch scum anyway and we’ve mass claimed so on a strategy level nothing changes.
3) Mainly because you’re the only ones arguing against the logic and calling it an outright fallacy despite townreads and scumreads telling you you’re wrong (shos flopz and xtomx). There’s nothing really to gain there and white knighting isn’t really likely because you two both already townread each other iirc. There’s no stance gain. Having the ability to be unilaterally townread in 40+ player games skitter wouldn’t do that and after a scum lynch if you’re scum you’d need to widen your net. White knight might make sense if you are in a general game but this one no.

It’s more a neighborizer that can be defused and on one power role doesn’t make sense. Against three PRs two of which stop scum kills one of which stops kill and neighborize doesn’t sit right.

Something is wrong here. There’s just not enough here to push.

[MathBlade]

The setup as written penalizes scum for using the power assuming the other two are vanilla. Saudade could be guiltied by RC for multitasking if he uses tracker. Something doesn’t add up.

[MathBlade]

Is this assuming you were the N1 target?

Yes and RCE had no reads other than RC scum

Thats just not true. Since we are talking about N1, here are RCE's other reads:

Spoiler:

I've finally realized that lynching ari ... willl not actually be super helpful wrt the other two, or with rc in particular
[snip]

Not the lynch itself maybe. Night phase would but I'll leave it at that.

Sus of Ari

Ari/tw/RC

Tw is only above RC in that list because TW is a significantly tougher read for me.

Most sus of Ari

This is exhausting, what the hell

Ari i am thoroughly underwhelmed

Was there anything particularly addreased to me in the last like 6 pages, because i didnt really read them

I almost want to lynch in {tw/rc} now just to resolve this mess and move on

Sorry to disappoint, Skitty! I'm an underwhelming person tbh.

Also, like, not really worth reading, no.
The pages appeared because I appeared and I should just go back to being too busy for this since I'm gonna be scumread regardless I suppose

That's a cop out. Give us something to townread.

More Ari

It’s Ari or nothing even though tw+RC can’t learn spam control.

Hey kinda like that thing I was just saying.

More.

Like the EoD1, RCE's posts in the 2000s are more about Ari scum than just about any other slot. And Im not sure how you could possibly say otherwise?

That’s not reads.

That’s sheeping me. You even quoted where you said he was.

[MathBlade]

I am too exhausted sorry I am going to bed.

[MathBlade]

The setup as written penalizes scum for using the power assuming the other two are vanilla. Saudade could be guiltied by RC for multitasking if he uses tracker. Something doesn’t add up.

Why are you assuming the other two are vanilla? Im assuming a strongman N-shot.

Can’t assume anything til it flips or evidence of it
Like resistance here evidence of traitor
Neighborizer evidence of traitor

[MathBlade]

i checked and it was after.
not really sure what the difference there is tho?

It’s less of a reason to rely on that, since scum!you would know the attempt to hood RCE failed and so the claim was safe. I’m still inclined to credit especially with today’s play, but that’s the relevance.

If you believe that theory then you have to believe scum attempted to kill me.

They wouldn’t attempt to hood AND kill RCE so then they would have to have shot me in that world.

[MathBlade]

Don't think anyone actually said why they think it is a bad idea, everyone just say no we're not doing that without remotely explaining.

The only bad thing about this plan is "we lose icos voice for a day" and this is solvable by my method of deciding tomorrow's lynch.

OK, try it another way. What's the benefit (leaving town!Ico)? B/c theres no world where I consider Ico scum, and Ill suck ass if thats wrong.

1. Easier to get a scum Lynch (less towniest needed)
2. 'proof' of ico, good for sanity, or much better info with anyone else dead
3. Forcing scum to make one of their kills in a less-informed state

This is also kinda the stuff I mentioned. I don't agree with most of this, but I don't scumread shos for it either?

1)Easier to get a scum lynch isn't true, because while needing 1 less vote you also HAVE 1 less town vote to work with. But that's from my perspective.
2)I suppose due dilligence from town allows this?
3)Eh. I think town always needs to maintain initiative, and the best way to do that is thru lynching. It's strategy vs odds I guess.

1. Yup, less townies to convince to vote there.
3. You are in even numbers. Eventually you WILL nolynch. Question is not if, it is when.

We could just you know win by lynching scum every day. Why are you so insistent we will get this wrong?

You’re campaigning for a no lynch here is crap.

We really really should lynch shos.

[MathBlade]

From what I read by now my gut tells me that Math is scum.

you were literally townreading math a couple hours ago
math hasnt really changed his tone or angle on you so???

Math has made two (!) Attempts to call my posts scumslips. On one hand, bias etc. On another hand, math has played with me a lot and knows that as scum I am computed as FUCK. See for example the recent cult loss I linked to (just my latest game) - read the cult PT. When I am scum, I am just about as careful and calculated as one can be, to the point where I consider the timestamps on my posts to make it look like I'm surprised etc if needed (see: my CC to poyzin). Scumslips? Lol. He is reaaaaaally pushing it and grasping at straws. That's why gut.

@Math, can confirm?

First off when I first theorized that was a slip RC was an unknown. I quoted that so people would look back for context to see if it is now indeed a slip since RC is a JOAT. So not multiple scumslips. I was hoping to get people to review that. So no, 1 scumslip just emphasized.

Secondly wet noodling (what you were doing before I called you out on it) IS a valid strategy and careful and calculated to avoid giving reads.

Thirdly I don’t remember too much about meta I am trying to remember which way my head should be. I don’t know this cult game at all. This game currently you’ve been stingy with reads something I don’t feel town!you is. And yes it’s a feeling not off memory or anything like that.

[MathBlade]

i checked and it was after.
not really sure what the difference there is tho?

Also possible: scum hood scum so that come D3 there's a hood with 2 scums and 1 town, much bigger sway to pocket him.
It’s less of a reason to rely on that, since scum!you would know the attempt to hood RCE failed and so the claim was safe. I’m still inclined to credit especially with today’s play, but that’s the relevance.

i checked and it was after.
not really sure what the difference there is tho?

It’s less of a reason to rely on that, since scum!you would know the attempt to hood RCE failed and so the claim was safe. I’m still inclined to credit especially with today’s play, but that’s the relevance.

If you believe that theory then you have to believe scum attempted to kill me.

They wouldn’t attempt to hood AND kill RCE so then they would have to have shot me in that world.

...we lynched RCE, he wasn't killed. Ico's protection makes that possible.

That was in reference to N1

If your theory is Xtom is lying then scum and scum attempted to neighborize RCE
Then they don’t kill him as well.

What we did on D3 irrelevant to N1 unless scum are psychic

[MathBlade]

i checked and it was after.
not really sure what the difference there is tho?

Also possible: scum hood scum so that come D3 there's a hood with 2 scums and 1 town, much bigger sway to pocket him.
It’s less of a reason to rely on that, since scum!you would know the attempt to hood RCE failed and so the claim was safe. I’m still inclined to credit especially with today’s play, but that’s the relevance.

i checked and it was after.
not really sure what the difference there is tho?

It’s less of a reason to rely on that, since scum!you would know the attempt to hood RCE failed and so the claim was safe. I’m still inclined to credit especially with today’s play, but that’s the relevance.

If you believe that theory then you have to believe scum attempted to kill me.

They wouldn’t attempt to hood AND kill RCE so then they would have to have shot me in that world.

...we lynched RCE, he wasn't killed. Ico's protection makes that possible.

That was in reference to N1

If your theory is Xtom is lying then scum and scum attempted to neighborize RCE
Then they don’t kill him as well.

What we did on D3 irrelevant to N1 unless scum are psychic

[MathBlade]

i checked and it was after.
not really sure what the difference there is tho?

It’s less of a reason to rely on that, since scum!you would know the attempt to hood RCE failed and so the claim was safe. I’m still inclined to credit especially with today’s play, but that’s the relevance.

This would indicate a traitor though if you keep this theory.

Why would scum neighborize a lurker?

Unless it’s to mislynch RC I don’t see it unless traitor hunting.

[MathBlade]

It’s not like they can even pretend a different action later. Neighbors if Saudade lasted until d3 would be proven. So then any neighborize action would need an explanation.

[MathBlade]

I feel like people are trying to have their cake and eat it too

If you think Xtom was neighborized (as I do) you need to ask what scum motivation there is to do that:
I can only come up with traitor hunting or mislynch RC. The latter of which makes me the more likely kill.

If you think Xtom is lying then scum would have attempted to neighborize RCE and have failed. There was no tracker claim d1 and therefore no reason to hold back a neighborize. This conclusion necessitates that I am town as no death happened.

The only way you can conclude I am scum is that Xtom is town and scum shot RCE.
The reason I am specifically doing this is because then you have to confront all the evidence that is present here so far.

A lot of people I feel are going “my feels!” and aren’t looking at mechanical evidence here.

[MathBlade]

Xtom is town or traitor* mainly I don’t see a world in which Xtom is group scum here.

Same with Ico I don’t see that either. 2 players out of 8 not group scum.

Let’s look at Saudade wagons on d1 and D2 since again start from place of knowledge

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: superfluous and not yet of the sediment

Vote Count 2.16 (FINAL)

Saudade

(7): skitter30, Aristophanes, Flopz, Iconeum, teacher, RadiantCowbells, Saudade

shos

(1): MathBlade

RadiantCowbells

(1): RCEnigma

Xtoxm

(1): shos

Not voting (2): Bellaphant, Xtoxm

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

Off wagon confirmed town: Bella, RCE
Off wagon likely not group scum Xtom unless you want to confirm town me: Xtom,Me

On wagon one scum: Saudade

This game has at least three scum.
Unless you think it is exactly Me+Xtom as group scum (impossible as demonstrated before who is the neighbor) then one of two possibilities is required
>> Shos is scum OR
>> The entire scum team busses Saud when they had a mislynch in shos available

But waaait? I hear you say: what if Math is scum and shos is town?
Then Xtom has to be town/not group scum as mentioned before as a neighborize use would have happened as scum don’t shoot who they neighborize.

And not only that you’re still left with the uncomfortable position of at least one other scum on the wagon.

The most likely answer is shos and Saud are both scum and Saud was less valuable to them.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: an elk contemplating eternity

Vote Count 2.8

shos

(5): skitter30, Aristophanes, Iconeum, RCEnigma, teacher

RadiantCowbells

(2): MathBlade, Saudade

Aristophanes

(1): Flopz

Iconeum

(1): shos

Not voting (3): Bellaphant, Xtoxm, RadiantCowbells

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

Flopz has been prodded; as he is V/LA I will not immediately replace him if the prod is not answered.

Shos at his highest point.

Bella and RC confirmed town off wagon
One confirmed scum off wagon
Overlapping people between the two wagons:
Skitter, Ari, Ico, and teacher

The only new person is Flopz. This is really the more damning VCA that says Flopz scum with Shos. Not what Titus is saying I still don’t get it.

Combine that with the unvote of shos earlier and still not pushing anyone I am okay with shos+Flopz.

It also would make sense with the VC here that Flopz was gonna push Ari.

[MathBlade]

When did xtomx claim hooded relative to Bella’s claim. Iirc, it was before the jk. I can’t check while at school, but that’s one of my main reasons to tr him, along with a completely believable portrayal of the hood thread and picking up details today.

On Ari, I don’t recall him pushing saud hard, but he’s my goal for a reread tonight.

No it was after. Iirc

[MathBlade]

since someone asked who was in the hood with tris/saud slot- that was me

Claim

[MathBlade]

I was only night 1 and 2, technically I was an alien but it worked as a jk. If icos town pr also has limits on it, that makes sense?
Ive been town reading you since day one ico, but you must be able to see why I'm a bit concerned right now.

Not masses, but I'll go back and find, ico

Bella’s claim

[MathBlade]

i checked and it was after.
not really sure what the difference there is tho?

Also possible: scum hood scum so that come D3 there's a hood with 2 scums and 1 town, much bigger sway to pocket him.
It’s less of a reason to rely on that, since scum!you would know the attempt to hood RCE failed and so the claim was safe. I’m still inclined to credit especially with today’s play, but that’s the relevance.

i checked and it was after.
not really sure what the difference there is tho?

It’s less of a reason to rely on that, since scum!you would know the attempt to hood RCE failed and so the claim was safe. I’m still inclined to credit especially with today’s play, but that’s the relevance.

If you believe that theory then you have to believe scum attempted to kill me.

They wouldn’t attempt to hood AND kill RCE so then they would have to have shot me in that world.

...we lynched RCE, he wasn't killed. Ico's protection makes that possible.

That was in reference to N1

If your theory is Xtom is lying then scum and scum attempted to neighborize RCE
Then they don’t kill him as well.

What we did on D3 irrelevant to N1 unless scum are psychic

I'm missing something
N1 saudade hoods xtomx her partner
Then dies

What has RCE got to do with it

Then you believe there would be a traitor in that case specifically Xtom.

No one else has claimed to be neighborized. Therefore one of two options:
1) Xtom is telling the truth and cannot be group scum. Therefore town or traitor.
2) Xtom is lying and scum and therefore RCE was neighborize target and then that makes me the shot as scum don’t kill who they neighborize.

RCE has to do with it because of being Alien’d N1

[MathBlade]

Let’s assume you’re town shos.

Go back and look at my small VCA.

Why does the entire scum team (or just group scum) bus Saud rather than mislynch you?

[MathBlade]

Math xtomx lying because RCE was fail-hooded N1 is one possibility. But I don't think he is lying; I just think he is scum. Don't see what you're trying to even say.

Assuming you’re town
First sentence >> If RCE was failhooded then I would have to be shot as no deaths overnight. Then in that xtomx group scum world you’re still dealing with scum giving up a mislynch on you to bus Saud because.....?

Second sentence >> If you don’t think Xtom is lying then you think he’s traitor? Group scum is laughable then why would scum neighborize their own then bus their own when they had a mislynch handy? Furthermore you’d be pushing the one person who agrees with you that a traitor exists?

You’re literally pushing the one person you’d be townreading in those worlds. Like you reek of survivalism versus thought here.

[MathBlade]

The setup as written penalizes scum for using the power assuming the other two are vanilla. Saudade could be guiltied by RC for multitasking if he uses tracker. Something doesn’t add up.

Why are you assuming the other two are vanilla? Im assuming a strongman N-shot.

i guess my question is if there's a n-shot strongman why did the kill fail n1 ?

@math do u currently think today is mylo y/n

I think there’s enough evidence to where that can’t be ruled out. Something seems wrong with how today is going.

[MathBlade]

Ico, I have to do grading stuff, but can you talk about me/skit? Like I think your reads were upside down, but I have a hard time seeing that train of thought and Im surprised you arent testing the waters in any way with either of us.

i'm constantly doubting both your slots, but i end up going in circles

it's always 'skitter pushed that saud wagon so hard' and 'teacher just isn't scum here'

IIRC, and I havent checked this, Skit didnt push Saud that hard. In fact, I think she initially pushed against it for a bit (pref'ing shos, and saying shed be able to read saud in time) and flipped only when momentum felt strong that way. That was my broad takeaway from that time, but Im not double checking it

i think ur right, i'm p sure rc led it and i supported it as he pushed it, i did help get ari and a few other votes on it tho iirc

Correct I agree here.

[MathBlade]

you're not really treating today like mylo @math

This is correct.

Because that’s literally impossible when no one else does. If I am voting my scumread it has the same effect as treating it as mylo anyway.

[MathBlade]

To anyone scumreading Ari:

how do you feel about his relation to the saud lynch?

@shos in particular, you think Ari is scum. Like, your only main scumread right now?
He was focused on lynching scum, and he kept calling you out for going against what is now certain a scum wagon. Yet you scumread him because PoE?

iirc i had to talk him into it and he was initially rather resistant

Ari was and is resistant to do anything all game lol

Pedit yes

[MathBlade]

also it's not just the rce lynch, it's the whole nonsensical team-spouting, traitor, setup-spec thing that you did
and that you were trying to push that you were conftown day2, which i still hate

hate yes, but do you actually scumread that? i don't

his pushing himself as conftown D2 speaks louder as town then scum?

his setup spec, while hilarious, didn't read as scummy to me

no, i think taht this comes from scum more often than from town
also, i dislike the setup spec because it's making us go down wild goose chases that are quite possibly wrong.
like, for example, the rce thing

Townblocks are the most important thing in games like this.

I have been working all game towards having one.

Work with your town block and find scum.

[MathBlade]

**shakes head**

I literally have asked everyone to figure out what they think happened on N1 and make sure that contributes to their reads.

I fail to see how I am still screaming I am conf town here

[MathBlade]

And yes quite frankly unless you believe RCE shot and Xtom neighborized I am still conf town based on N1

And if you do believe the former then use that as a starting spot and ask why Xtom neighborized by scum?

Assume I am scum then what do you learn about N1?

[MathBlade]

So first option nk me and neighborize RCE. >> This means that I as scum would shoot myself N1 and have Ico conveniently claim to “save” me and Xtom conviently lie and say neighborize with no traitor so you’d have at least one town lie for no reason whatsoever ever so here let’s go with the simpler option that I am town.

Second option NK’d RCE and neighborized Xtom+RCE is much more logical if you want to keep up I am scum

[MathBlade]

No one else has claimed to be neighborized. Therefore one of two options:
1) Xtom is telling the truth and cannot be group scum. Therefore town or traitor.
2) Xtom is lying and scum and therefore RCE was neighborize target and then that makes me the shot as scum don’t kill who they neighborize.

do you think we live in unvierse 1 or 2

I think 1

[MathBlade]

So first option nk me and neighborize RCE. >> This means that I as scum would shoot myself N1 and have Ico conveniently claim to “save” me and Xtom conviently lie and say neighborize with no traitor so you’d have at least one town lie for no reason whatsoever ever so here let’s go with the simpler option that I am town.

Second option NK’d RCE and neighborized Xtom+RCE is much more logical if you want to keep up I am scum

i'm literally saying we live in the second universe

(actually i'm saying that it's p difficult to know what happened but that the second universe is much more likely)

The option scum shoot RCE I find less likely than shooting town me. I just think the jail is a coincidence but I don’t have outright proof of such.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler:

an out for what?

i didn't know that post was a crime

an out for what?

Random fluff. Random post + disappear = bad.

Random fluff + response = good

Random fluff + Garcia = ???

Garcia? What?

It's not like the party hat in the avatar changes that's it's fluff

good god maybe math was on to something
math/shos/saudade is never a thing at least

I have caught scum before post 10 using my RVS methods in a newbie

Just got talked out of it.

[MathBlade]

right, ok, i'm reminded why i thought plum + tris was a thing

math how do u feel about distancing / bussing

If you mean as scum, I do it sometimes religiously. Other times never/not at all

Depends on my players and what they are comfortable with / situation

Newbie game caught scum by post 10
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=73011

[MathBlade]

Spoiler:

Spoiler: the alluringly subtle fragrance of an ouroboros

Vote Count 2.6

skitter30

(4): MathBlade, Iconeum, Saudade, Xtoxm

shos

(2): skitter30, RadiantCowbells

Aristophanes

(2): Flopz, teacher

RadiantCowbells

(1): RCEnigma

MathBlade

(1): Aristophanes

Not voting (2): shos, Bellaphant

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

Spoiler: iliad murmuring within

Vote Count 2.7

shos

(3): skitter30, RadiantCowbells, Aristophanes

RadiantCowbells

(3): RCEnigma, Iconeum, MathBlade

Aristophanes

(2): Flopz, teacher

skitter30

(1): Xtoxm

Not voting (3): shos, Bellaphant, Saudade

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

Spoiler: an elk contemplating eternity

Vote Count 2.8

shos

(5): skitter30, Aristophanes, Iconeum, RCEnigma, teacher

RadiantCowbells

(2): MathBlade, Saudade

Aristophanes

(1): Flopz

Iconeum

(1): shos

Not voting (3): Bellaphant, Xtoxm, RadiantCowbells

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

Flopz has been prodded; as he is V/LA I will not immediately replace him if the prod is not answered.

these are all like incriminatory for math ...

if shos is scum with saudade what the fuck is he even trying to do by voting ico

It’s called a null vote. It’s a vote that gives no information to anyone since shos at that point had no clout to push anyone. Any push he did would reek of scum teammates coaching.

[MathBlade]

It’s called a null vote. It’s a vote that gives no information to anyone since shos at that point had no clout to push anyone. Any push he did would reek of scum teammates coaching.

[MathBlade]

Mods can’t edit posts especially in team mafia Skitter.
(I was a team mafia mod last year)

[MathBlade]

Or the year before #old dude problems

[MathBlade]

And yes quite frankly unless you believe RCE shot and Xtom neighborized I am still conf town based on N1

And if you do believe the former then use that as a starting spot and ask why Xtom neighborized by scum?

Assume I am scum then what do you learn about N1?

i have no idea what why scum may have chosen to neighborize xtoxm
but i'm assuming they didn't no-neighborize

so they either nk'd you and neighborized rce
or they nk'd rce and neighborized xtoxm

those are kinda the only two possibilities
or i guess technically rc could have been neighborized but i imagine he would have claimed that if that had been a thing

I'm sorry what?
This post lacks any sense of forethought.
Why are you discounting option 3: math nk, xtox NB'd
Suggesting the hood is fake and instead rc offers to be bopd on Saud without commenting that he knows Saudis role...are you listening to yourself?

She’s really not.

She’s completely tunneled I am scum and so I keep trying to point out how silly that is from different angles

I am hoping that if I help her build a case against me then she will see I can’t have any partners and then maybe that will bring her out of her tunnel.

[MathBlade]

Mods can’t edit posts especially in team mafia Skitter.
(I was a team mafia mod last year)

ah, in like the other queues mods can usually, didn't see why it would be different here

Those games aren’t scored and don’t have cross issues.

Generally edits would only happen for inaccuracies in vote counts or emergencies and ugly posts are neither

[MathBlade]

Let me know what meta of mine you want Skitter.

I shall provide any meta that I can find of myself closest to what you need to try to put me in the scummiest light possible.

I am that certain you’re tunneled here.

[MathBlade]

It’s called a null vote. It’s a vote that gives no information to anyone since shos at that point had no clout to push anyone. Any push he did would reek of scum teammates coaching.

but it would have been significantly better for him if he had just like ... voted his cw or something

his slots early game is bad, and wagonomics around him like early day2 point to scum

but his play (specifically tone) today just makes me think town?

i'm kinda conflicted and i think i need to do some more digging in plum's early game and at saudade's iso

but i need to bounce now, i have an appointment shortly

No. It wouldn’t.

Voting cw = survivalistic

And tone is almost never a good reason to townread someone alone who is experienced
You need more than that.

A good scum knows how to frame things well

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: Titus response to Skitter’s question

Looking at VC 2.6 (This is Titus’s opinion paraphrased by me)

Disclaimer, VCA is rarely done in once VC in a vacuum. It works together with other VCs.

Now we have Sausade as the third vote on you. There is no counterwagon. This doesn't appear to be a hard bus. So I'm relatively confident you're town.

I don't see Ico Xtoxm as scum on this VC either. Two scum neighboring each other in a VC seems highly problematic unless scum were deathly afraid of you being spot on. That definitely doesn't apply for Ico and likely not xtoxm. This is likely scum buttering up Math after riling him up.

Why don't shos and Flopz get on you? Because shos nor Flopz was in any danger. RC and Math were bickering. RC wanted shos. Scum wanted to use conftown Math to discredit RC and make RC feel alone.

Their objective was RC v Math, lynch RC. They'd settle for you but they wanted RC discredited. The RCE flip creates tunnel Math.

The RC NK was clear too. Bella was killed because she was obvious town AND she wouldn't change the gamestate. Bella could come back and do something unexpected. Ico is never expected to push Flopz. Thus Bella > Ico for an NK.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: the alluringly subtle fragrance of an ouroboros

Vote Count 2.6

skitter30

(4): MathBlade, Iconeum, Saudade, Xtoxm

shos

(2): skitter30, RadiantCowbells

Aristophanes

(2): Flopz, teacher

RadiantCowbells

(1): RCEnigma

MathBlade

(1): Aristophanes

Not voting (2): shos, Bellaphant

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

@math:

can you get titus to explain this vc again?
if it's shos+flopz+saudade scared of me trying to lynch shos why weren't flopz + shos on me here, why were they wool-gathering on ari and not voting

also i don't udnerstand how the nka points to shos and flopz in particular

The question for context

[MathBlade]

Gonna do this in smaller chunks
Let’s for sake of simplicity look at the not traitor worlds
Me+Skitter >> Just gonna skip right over this one
Me+Xtom >> Again this one requires either me to shoot myself or intentionally neighborize myself or neighborize RCE and then suggest Xtom lie about it. Considering I am usually very smart with powers and assignments here the only such case for me + Xtom requires that nearly every wagon of the game is one in which I do not control as Xtom is a relative low poster. A similar game where this was the case (Shadowrun) in which kills were setup to explicitly lead in certain ways and I leave small clues and let others drink “bad” ideas rather than suggesting my own. (Extra Communication) is also another sample in which I begged to be “checked” because I didn’t have a PT with my partner Chip. I tend to be honest whatever my alignment is and me+Xtom does not work.

Now give me a moment for the rest

[MathBlade]

Me + Ico — This would have to be a preplanned gambit once a no kill of RCE happened. Possible but unlikely as you’d then have to answer why neighborize Xtom instead of anyone who townread me/Ico heavily d1? This question becomes the focus of the lack of partner. I have never played with Xtom. You’d have to pair me with someone who knew Xtom’s meta.

[MathBlade]

Now with me+Ico and me + Xtom eliminated then in me scum worlds Ico+Xtom are town and we would be looking for someone with knowledge of Xtom and that he hates playing with RC.

[MathBlade]

YOU JUST SAID YOUR TEAM TOLD YOU PREGAME THAT XTOXM WOULD HARD LURK WITH ME IN THE GAME

This is the type of meta that RC and RCE have that my supposed partner would have to have in order for me to have a reason to deviate from my usual very successful build town block with scum strategy which neighborizer should do as scum.

[MathBlade]

This eliminates tris Thilbert Plum and their replacements as iirc those were all day two.

This leaves Ari or teacher as possible scumbuddies left for me

[MathBlade]

You’d have to have a hard time explaining D1 and D2 with me+Ari
Me+teacher is the last one. Do you want me to explain why that’s bad Skitter? Or is this enough?

[MathBlade]

can u explain the tris/flopz/shos bit again, i didn't follow that part

i don't need you/teacher

It’s because of how I operate as scum with hoods. You’ve seen that experience. I would as scum have Saud hood RC or Ico or you. Scum win on information control. For me to deviate to a lurker such as xtomx would require some benefit to where I thought some control would be possible. I have no experience iirc with xtomx before this game started. Therefore said partner would have to have knowledge of xtomx, experience with them, and knowing they would be the proper buddy.

This also has to be from the d1 list tris/Plum/flopz (Flopz was d1 not D2 my bad).

Considering I have little to no experience with tris and Plum. Flopz I think I have had 2 games with maybe? They’d have to have enough games with xtomx and RC to make the suggestion to deviate there.

[MathBlade]

No I really can’t.

If Titus let’s me I can compromise on an Ari lynch. It’d take some really big convincing to do flopz.

I don’t wanna lynch except in those three and if it’s not shos I would be guessing who is shos partner in possible mylo.

Like twtbaw is not a thing for a replace in slot that’s done jack.

[MathBlade]

lets me*

[MathBlade]

Shos has pushed no lynch for how long now?

And that’s with some wagon pressure?

Do you expect shos to all of a sudden give “actual” reads anytime soon? No one is making him and since he is scum it’s in his team’s best interest for him to wet noodle. I don’t see him giving a single read or doing jack.

People get townreads by being town helping town and contributing. That’s how this works.

[MathBlade]

I disagree. If a slot is “dead” it will do that especially if the partner gets towncred for bussing here or is in a good spot to begin with.

[MathBlade]

Can we go over the townblock again?

Ico/Math/skitter/teacher

--

all scum in shos/ari/xtoxm/flopz?

I would add Xtom to the block

[MathBlade]

Spent my break finding the thread. How this is in Blitz Game Trial I dunno. Will catch up later.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: cornichon and old lace

Vote Count 4.7

shos

(3): MathBlade, Xtoxm, Aristophanes

Aristophanes

(3): teacher, Iconeum, skitter30

MathBlade

(1): shos

Not Voting (1): Flopz

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 1:00 AM PST on the 20th, in (expired on 2020-02-20 05:00:00).

If anyone's having trouble finding the thread, or other team mafia threads in these... confusing times, FYI UT made a post in the global announcement thread for team mafia (which you can get to from anywhere, since it's a global announcement) with a link to the TM2020 subforum.

I feel like I am dreaming regarding this VC.

@Flopz what do you think?

[MathBlade]

math i don't wanna lynch shos right now

he just really feels town? the way he responds to stuff is just… natural?

Uhm no? It doesn’t.

And even if it was natural that’s still not a good argument as scum can *gasp* tell the truth!

[MathBlade]

Yeah well.

I'm kinda done trying to work with you. You have been on opposite sides of me for pretty much the entire game.

Uhm no? We were both on RCE. The only times we diverged were Ari, Saud, and then you have deviated from “shos” because “natural” which is not a thing. If you have an actual reason shos is town I would consider it but there’s so much more that says he is scum.

Second of all both these wagons are on scumreads so I am good with either one. I am *this* close to convincing Titus to let me hammer. I’d prefer shos but Ari will confirm if shos/Ari or shos/Flopz so I am good with either

[MathBlade]

I have intent as well.

If this flips red I reserve the right to not be called bad by RC when I had a wagon on scum and 2/3rds of day one reads proven right so far.

[MathBlade]

my thing is that he has anti buddy equity with everyone in the poe except shos.

{math, ari} - math pushed ari extremely hard on d1, for an extended period of time, and talked about using ari to bop rc. continued pushing him after rc disavowed the wagon.

Spoiler:

Mathb this play is manipulative. Don't try to reason with the seal, he ain't town

My goal is not to influence him.

He doesn’t listen to me.

However the more he doesn’t listen to reason the more people see what I see in Raybells.

He made his Ari scum bed.

Now we get a chance to evaluate Raybells based off it.

He can moan about it if he wants but it won’t change a thing.

Raybells isn’t the dictator of this game.

i will also say that this has done a remarkable job of warping the gamestate and i really think everyone needs to like ~calm down~ and that i'm going to be able to approach this with a clearer head after night, i think

and i think most people kinda feel the same way at this point

Hence why I want the focus on Ari.

We need a lynch that isn’t the drama of RC/tw to avoid stagnation.

{flopz, ari} - both at each others throats early game (pretty much instantly iirc). flopz made a vote on ari d1 that would have been likely to result in his death at the time

Spoiler:

If you’re not voting Ari people please vote Ari. Thank you!

What's he on "L"-wise?

No idea. I just know this shit needs to end and there hasn’t been a vote count in a while.

Pretty sure I have 4-5 votes on me.

7 to lynch.

Yh, that's what I was asking thanks. VOTE: Ari

{skitter, ari} - combined mislynch total of 2, tied lowest of alive pairings. this is weaker than the other two given low sample size, but mislynches tend not to happen without scum involvement.
leaves only {shos, ari}

for shos,
{math, shos} - i want to rule this out but its kinda moonlogicky.
other shos pairings i have nothing to rule out.

ari is only scum with shos. shos can be scum with people that aren't ari. so logically, shos is the better lynch.
assuming the solve is {shos, ari}, im more concerned about shos getting undue towncred from the ari scum lynch and endgaming, than vice versa.

How exactly would shos get “towncred” from an Ari scum flip? If Ari flips red I am just probably gonna votepark shos.

And I agree shos is the better lynch but Ari is still in my pool.

[MathBlade]

Anyone got anything to add before hammers?

[MathBlade]

Wow Teacher, that was a lot more than I expected. I have no qualms with voting for Ari now. Might as well wait for his response to this before finishing him off.

I think this is the only thing being waited on? Someone correct me if I am wrong.

[MathBlade]

It's on Teacher. I don't think outing this did town any good. I also think it's a lot more likely than you do that scum no killed: me getting a guilty completely clusterfucks scum gameplan of leaving me alive.

No Raybells. It doesn’t. I may be the only person who trusts you right now.

I am very certain scum would try to kill. Let’s call it a hunch k?

What do you make of Plum being willing to vote TW but not Ari yesterday?

Plum wouldn’t vote Ari and just said Fuck this and quit posting a bit
Then when TW became a wagon Plum was all Fuck this and voted TW

Can’t find the exact post but yeah you + Ari makes sense because of Plum.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: an elk contemplating eternity

Vote Count 2.8

shos

(5): skitter30, Aristophanes, Iconeum, RCEnigma, teacher

RadiantCowbells

(2): MathBlade, Saudade

Aristophanes

(1): Flopz

Iconeum

(1): shos

Not voting (3): Bellaphant, Xtoxm, RadiantCowbells

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

Flopz has been prodded; as he is V/LA I will not immediately replace him if the prod is not answered.

I don’t see how. 2.8 is anti shos+Ari seems to support that theory

[MathBlade]

VOTE: No lynch

[MathBlade]

Obv that also means there's 1 scum between Xtoxm and Skitter with me being ConfTown and all but that's somewhere I'm scared to look in. I don't SR Xtoxm and Skitter is looking real town looking at their ISO throughout the whole Ari v Shos debacle.

Explain this please.

Titus really thought last we spoke it was you+shos.

I will be reevaluating when I get home because lylo and you never drop a vote immediately in lylo ever.

Shos’ entry is hella bad though and makes it really tempting to instantly vote shos.

[MathBlade]

math teacher's theory was one scum in {ari/math} so teacher dying last night is making me wonder if i was right about you

1) I know for a fact that theory is wrong.
2) Teacher dying means the theory is more than likely wrong. I don’t kill people who suspect me as scum. If I did you’d have been dead.

Mainly Titus is begging me to vote shos or flopz here. I have to do my due diligence though since lylo so it’s a mandatory reset of reads here.

[MathBlade]

you knowing the theory is wrong doesn't particularly help me
i need to do some research on your scumgame too, i think

As I said earlier more than willing to provide games to help you out of your funk.

Just let me know what kind and I will provide the closest I can. I got crit role on and am doing a slog through in the background.

[MathBlade]

Sure thing just a sec. I’ve had a hiatus of a while so bear with me

[MathBlade]

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=76395 Lynch all wolves
viewtopic.php?f=56&t=76709 Heroes wanted
viewtopic.php?f=55&t=73635 Fireworks Festival

I think they are my most recent.
Heroes got to be a bit long because of a lot of reasons. Fireworks is the shortest.
Fireworks the scum PT is not released because of reasons not hiding meta. I almost never hide scum PT just reasons I really don’t want to get into. Heroes it is released but it is long. Lynch all wolves was a bit toxic and I was Derpy scum. Rare derpage as scum.
Heroes was on top of my game.
Fireworks made me not care because of reasons I don’t want to get into. Same reasons the PT isn’t released.

Heroes was loss in lylo.
Fireworks was win.
Wolves was just a loss.

[MathBlade]

Shoulda said content warning transphobia and Suicide threats in two of the games.

Sorry in advance if you hit that without warning.
Heroes has suicide
Fireworks transphobia

[MathBlade]

I kinda am gonna focus on crit role a while
Remembering those games exist sucks :/

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: cornichon and old lace

Vote Count 4.7

shos

(3): MathBlade, Xtoxm, Aristophanes

Aristophanes

(3): teacher, Iconeum, skitter30

MathBlade

(1): shos

Not Voting (1): Flopz

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 1:00 AM PST on the 20th, in (expired on 2020-02-20 05:00:00).

If anyone's having trouble finding the thread, or other team mafia threads in these... confusing times, FYI UT made a post in the global announcement thread for team mafia (which you can get to from anywhere, since it's a global announcement) with a link to the TM2020 subforum.

This VC is odd.

I keep trying to start as if shos is town but I can’t seem to get there.

It’s like really weird. Both teacher and Ico didn’t want to lynch Ico because no counter wagon, so they made their own wagon?

Like the tail end there is what I scumread right now based on tone (Shos+flopz)

I don’t scumread skitter’s tone but VCA ignoring facts says she is scum. Titus says flopz is scum by VCA but I don’t see it.

I think we agree on shos. Can someone explain to me why Ari was picked over shos?

I can’t find where that started.

Mainly if shos is town all the wagons would be town that day which would be weird. Or shos is scum.

Can someone talk me through their thoughts regarding yesterday given Ari flipped town?

Consider a spiritual vote on shos I just wanna talk things out and prevent a quick hammer if I am wrong.

[MathBlade]

thanks i will take a look
sorry, i didn't mean to bring up unpleasantness :/

Not your fault in the slightest thought I had some scum games after

[MathBlade]

is it just VC4.7 that tells you skitter scum, or is there more to it?
my own vca says 1 scum in {shos, flopz} and thats about it

I’ve had an off and on feeling Skitter is scum so no it’s not just that.

Mainly it’s more a “gut” and she seems off thing.

But unless someone explains a shos townread I will likely end up voting there later today since Titus and I agree there.

[MathBlade]

Can someone talk me through their thoughts regarding yesterday given Ari flipped town?

skitters actions hard shielded shos and were instrumental in moving things toward ari as opposed to shos
flopz ultimately helped him but had no effect on swinging momentum
overall, a worse look for skitter, but its a tough call

I agree. Hence why I think today is shos and figure out the rest tomorrow.

[MathBlade]

Y NO DED

damnit
I can't believe xtomx has gotten to lylo, ftr.

so Skitter is clearly not today's lynch
I am probably a viable mislynch candidate (I know you want to math, don't vote yet)
xtomx is definitely a lynch candidate
Math should proooobably be kept for later, assuming we lynch correctly?

Specifically here.

If you think I am town why are you saying I should be “kept for later”?
And if you think I am scum why are you talking to me like town telling me to “don’t vote yet”?

This reads like you’re not hunting and trying to manipulate me and others. That’s why it’s bad.

[MathBlade]

2) Teacher dying means the theory is more than likely wrong. I don’t kill people who suspect me as scum. If I did you’d have been dead.

lol this is bullshit. Ico and teacher have been universally townread, and thus they were killed. The whole argument about when to nolynch was EXACTLY THIS, my point was that if we NL late then scum get to choose who lives to lylo. And look at that! we have a lylo with no less than FOUR PEOPLE OUT OF FIVE who are suspects. sucks to be us.

either way, the fact that a universally townread person dies doesn't make him wrong, that is a stupid say in practically every game ever

Teacher and XtomX were/are both in the probTown category.
Xtom by mechanics and Teacher by reads.

The fact they killed teacher did matter as scum would want an advantageous lylo.

[MathBlade]

@flopz
i'd like you to take a look at 7791
have you read this post before, and do you agree with the logical conclusion? (that necessarily there is one town is {xtox, math}
if no, could you explain why?

You basically, like math, ignore everything I say?

I read it and found it lacking. You said that scum neighbouring a buddy would allow them day talk, which was countered by the rule set. Since then you made no further comment on the topic and continued to push us both as scum.

I think he’s just desperate for someone to push.

The shos wagon was right yesterday.

[MathBlade]

From this post people have 24 hours before I vote shos barring shenanigans or events.

[MathBlade]

X was the math you used to justify the RCE lynch genuinely wrong or intentionally wrong?

The math was right.

More often than not RCE is scum there.

Then again I was town :/

And I shoulda been me and just pushed skitter. I just cooperated too much.

[MathBlade]

Yeah I tried not being myself and that didn’t work and I am sorry.

Well played scum esp Skitter.

[MathBlade]

I know I won’t.