Ether wrote:Erg0, what led you to drop the counterwagon Tar pushed for hasdgfas's sake on Day 1 and put him on par with Eldarad and Mizzy in your final summary?
I haven't dropped it, but it's a little circumstantial. Of the three I'd rate hasdgfas as most likely to be scum, but I'd rather lynch PF before any of them.
PokerFace wrote:Um, I believe I did later note (a little before day 2 ended) that some of your coments with Glork led me to think you would vote Glork until you had your epiphany.
That's pretty much my point - you noted it but never followed up. It looks to me like you were raising the points and then backing away, in the hope that somebody else would pick them up and use them against either me or Glork.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
5 hours to deadline and I'd still like an answer to this question before night hits.
hasdgfas wrote:A question to all before I'm lynched, as there's no way it's going to change unless something really weird happens.
When I flip town, who are you going after? Don't avoid the question by saying that it doesn't matter either.
jdodge1019: hasjghsalghsakljghs is from vermont
jdodge1019: vermont is made of liberal freaks and cows
jdodge1019: he's not a liberal
jdodge1019: thus he is a cow
Mizzy, in 621, wrote:Even though I agree that Cow is probably scum,
I still get some interestingly scummy vibes from Incog
, maybe that's why I read his posting so far today as being defensive and overly so. Probably just me, but that's how I feel.
Mizzy, in 698, wrote:Oh, before anything earth-shaking happens, here's my scumdar, 1 being town-reading and 10 being scum-reading. 5 = undecided.
scotmany12 - 1
Elmo - 1
Erg0 - 2
Incognito - 4
Ether - 5
eldarad - 6
hasdgfas - 8
PokerFace - 9
When did this happen? Also, when did you decide that PokerFace was scummy? I don't remember you mentioning much about him all day.
I was wondering when people would bother asking me anything. I did a re-read, centered on watching vote counts, and PF, cow, Erg0 and Incog as people while I was away.
I suppose I can see why some might find Erg0 as being scummy, but looking at his vote patterns and his posts, I don't really get that feeling. I've played with him before and have read a couple of his other games, and while I usually have a hard time reading him (which could be the case now, granted) I feel he's more town than scum.
Incog, after a re-read, still feels a little off to me (hence why he is so close to being an undecided) but I saw some pro-town aspects from him too, more pro-town than what I feel is scummy about him for the time being.
Ether, well, she could be scum or she could be town. I like her as a person but I never like her playstyle...she usually comes off as an anti-town townie. Highly annoying.
Eld and cow I've already talked about.
Poker hasn't played like I've expected him to. His posts seem fake to me, like he's trying too hard to be a pro-town player and misses the mark just slightly. Some of his wording feels off to me, and this voting so far also leads me to believe he's scum. He likes to not vote a lot, and while I have done the same thing, I have a reason, and I want to know what his reason is.
PokerFace: "I need to play with [Ether] or Mizzy more often."
Nightson: "I'd be more then happy to play with Ether and Mizzy. At the same time."
Muerrto: "Mizzy is my hero and I wanna be like her when I grow younger <3"
hasdgfas wrote:5 hours to deadline and I'd still like an answer to this question before night hits.
hasdgfas wrote:A question to all before I'm lynched, as there's no way it's going to change unless something really weird happens.
When I flip town, who are you going after? Don't avoid the question by saying that it doesn't matter either.
hasdgfas, tough question but if you flip town and if I'm still around tomorrow, I will likely take a closer look at PF, Erg0, and Mizzy. Most of the other players I still feel pretty good about.
interesting...
Tar started a counter wagon when cow was about to be lynched.
Cow is about to be lynched again and Erg0 is re-enforcing the wagon that has been established on me.
Erg0 believes I merely noted that info in order to get people raise it against Glork. And perhaps push against Erg0 during day two. I'm not sure if I'm understanding you 100%. In the same post I mention:
PokerFace wrote:As far as Glork being scum I think I'd see him with Elmo and one other. Though i did like Elmo's last post, despite the fact some of his points look like repitition of points made by others. The other person I'd partly consider glork with would be Erg0. I originally thought Erg0 was going to vote Glork today because one of his early comments gave me that impression. The words he uses as he discusses Glork look like implication of a stronger suspicion then what he says about tarhalindur. http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 35#1088435
but since he has had his epiphany and gone the other way I've started to wonder if there may be something there. I wouldn't call it a strong suspicion of a conection though. http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 70#1099270
I mention also this.
PokerFace wrote:As things stand I am going to try and use their next actions to decide who I should vote before deadline. I'd like Tarhalindur to gve more on Glork and or defend the acusations Glork put on him at the start of the day. I'd like Glork to present his opinions of others and or grill others more if there is time for that last part. If tar continues to do nothing I think I am going to have to lynch him over Glork.
I was leaning towards voting Tar while keeping an open mind to just Glork and tar's actions. I don't see reason why I'd focus on others and want them to get on Glork at that time. I'd be backtracking my own logic that I was becoming fairly certain of. I don't flipflop like that. Are you trying to say that you think I, PokerFace, would subtly try to get others to vote and rally against Glork at that time as Tarhalindur's partner, without voting Glork myself? Thats quite a stretch there. sounds like a crazy idea from my view point. Maybe I just don't get what you are trying to imply then, but I do not see any reason why I'd go and try to do that. I see no reason why I'd try to lynch glork and save Tarhalindur because I am not/was not scum with Tarhalindur.
I am begining to wonder now if perhaps you didn't vote Glork and brought up those strong supicions on him early on because you wanted us to push them and go after Glork. When you realized that wasn't going to happened perhaps you used this "ephany" as a dramatic way to explain your flipflop. I did seem to notice some undermined logic from you during day 2:
Erg0 wrote:
PokerFace wrote:
Erg0 wrote:Glork looks like he's given up on winning the argument on facts, and is instead going for the "hearts and minds" approach. The increase in his level of desparation is apparent over the last 24 hours. He starts off at least considering it possible that Tar really is a cop ("Apparently y'all are going to play follow the claimed cop. And Tar's doing his job."), but is now painting Tar as 100% certain to be scum.
Instinctively I want to ignore this as an emotional issue, but that doesn't leave me with much to go on, since his contributions pre-claim were deliberately minimal.
In some ways it did sound like Glork was actually considering Tarh was the cop. Also his comments saying he has certainty he will be lynched, does come off as a bit of a "hearts and minds" approach, but something about the last sentence here bugs me. Is the he in the last sentence refering to Glork or Tarh? The placement of the last proper noun gives me an odd feeling of wishywashness or undermined logic. Who were you refering to in that sentence, Erg0?
That sentence refers to Glork. I don't think that Tar's day 1 effort could be construed as
deliberately
minimal.
And I mentioned not liking some parts of your epiphany aswell. I wonder if that epiphany's true purpose was to disguise you jumping ship and bussing Tarhalindur.
I brought up my thoughts in posts: 548, 581 in order to show what I was thinking. I believe you have thought out loud before in this game. I don't like setting lynches up in advance unless I am greatly certain. Since I was leaning away from thinking Glork was scum, I see no reason as to why I would pursue a case on either of you on day2, wether it be subtly or otherwise.
In general, am I for some reason not getting what you are trying to say or do I just not see how such a far fetched idea is valid evidence against me?
Also in light of recent posts I think I am beginging to see what incognito has been talking about with respect to Mizzy. If she isn't exactly who I think she is, then she may be scum afterall. Mizzy, I have only played one game with you. Do you remember our last game together? I rarely voted in that game. I only voted 2 people and each vote was on scum. There have been times when I've held off voting.
At this moment I can easily hammer Cow. And I will do that at 3PM today in my time zone (EST). I believe I should give Scotmany some more extra time to chip in should he feel the need too.
Cow, I guess I might go after Elderad or Erg0 pending on which one I think is most likly scum then. I'll be reviewing Elderad during the night as I have stated. And in this post I have just outlined reasons why Erg0 can be scum wether you are or not. Case on Erg0 is stronger if you are scum.
When I joined this site, I was a software tester for mobile business applications and the song PokerFace was not yet written by Lady Gaga
Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly
PokerFace wrote:Also in light of recent posts I think I am beginging to see what incognito has been talking about with respect to Mizzy. If she isn't exactly who I think she is, then she may be scum afterall. Mizzy, I have only played one game with you. Do you remember our last game together? I rarely voted in that game. I only voted 2 people and each vote was on scum. There have been times when I've held off voting.
I believe that who you think I am and what I really am are probably the same thing (other than scum.) That said, I don't think I'm going to be alive much longer.
I also feel like cow is trying to get
someone
to do
something
about his lynch:
hasdgfas wrote:A question to all before I'm lynched, as there's no way it's going to change unless something really weird happens.
PokerFace: "I need to play with [Ether] or Mizzy more often."
Nightson: "I'd be more then happy to play with Ether and Mizzy. At the same time."
Muerrto: "Mizzy is my hero and I wanna be like her when I grow younger <3"
Ok, don't expect me to really answer, respond, or comment on much at this moment. I have decided it will be much easier for me to reread during the night. A few things though.
To answer cow, Mizzy and Ergo. However, you most likely will not flip town, but I will still be looking at those two the most.
Ether, why the town read on Mizzy?
That's really all fo rnow as I haven't really read any of the large posts, just skimmed through them. I'll be able to read day 3 during the night, and hopefully give someting at the start of day 4.
Well I wanted to wait a little longer to allow others to say more if they wished. Its 10 minutes to deadline I think I gave everyone enough time. I mentioned reasons previously for thinking Cow be scum and said i would vote him/support his lynching. Its cowtipping time.
Vote:hasdgfas
When I joined this site, I was a software tester for mobile business applications and the song PokerFace was not yet written by Lady Gaga
Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly
After the very unsettling discovery of the once beautiful Glork's bruised body, the patrons of the Satin Dolls Gentleman's Club quickly begin to circle round poor hasdgfas. "You did this!" comes a cry from the angry mob, though several people simply take hold of him and start pulling him towards the stage without saying anything at all.
"Wait! No! I would never hurt Glork! I loved Glork! I was
in love
with Glork." That unsettles a few people, as they try to come to terms with the gender-bending sexuality involved in the situation, and in the brief respite PokerFace's name is bandied about, while Mizzy and eldarad get into a shouting match.
In the end, though, the people decide hasdgfas must be lying about his love life and his professional life, and take him to the stage to face justice. At least they were kind enough to strangle him with a feather boa from the dressing room so he could smell Glork's sweet perfume one last time before going to the big Gentleman's Club in the sky.
hasdgfas has been lynched. He was an
Innocent Patron (Townie)
.
It is now Night Three. Day Four will begin Thursday, July 17th some time after 3:00 PM. Please send night choices before that time.
The anchorman on the local five o'clock news broadcast seems to be in complete shock to be reporting on his second murder in three days. It seems that Ether, a young woman who lived not far from the other recent murder victim, was stabbed to death outside of her apartment last night. You recognize her from the grainy photograph displayed on the screen.
"Right now we're investigating what appears to be the unfortunate outcome of a lover's quarrel," says the detective who is being interviewed at the scene. "We have reason to believe that alcohol was involved. The victim was stabbed to death with a broken bottle." As you steel yourself for the unfortunate task you have ahead tonight, its not very comforting that the police are so far off the mark.
Ether -
Innocent Patron (Townie)
has been killed night three.
Day four begins now.
Current deadline: August 1st, 10:00 AM EST
Last edited by OhGodMyLife on Mon Aug 04, 2008 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Pretty sure he is scum. His interaction with tar early day 1 (tar votes for him, while attacking ether for a "veiled attack on ergo"), tar was trying to distance here. Ergo then attempts to distance with tar during day 2. He places a nonchalant vote on tar for reasons i still don't understand. I had problems with him clearing Glork because of his day 1 actions. Regardless of how he acts, I believe Glork to be a magnet for night actions on night 1 simply do to his reputation, and as pf says, everyone makes mistakes. So I think ergo was just looking for a reason to vote for tar over glork.
Last day, I wasn't thrilled with his dead-scum analysis (i didn't really see it as helpful) and him basically ignoring the cow wagon. Instead he places a vote on PF, a throw away vote. Despite calling cow scummy, he knew that he was going to come up town, so he stayed off the wagon.
There is also his activity issues, his vote on elmo, and yes, I believe it was a slip when he referenced Incog as town when they were discussing the opening flavor.
scotmany12 wrote:Pretty sure he is scum. His interaction with tar early day 1 (tar votes for him, while attacking ether for a "veiled attack on ergo"), tar was trying to distance here. Ergo then attempts to distance with tar during day 2. He places a nonchalant vote on tar for reasons i still don't understand. I had problems with him clearing Glork because of his day 1 actions. Regardless of how he acts, I believe Glork to be a magnet for night actions on night 1 simply do to his reputation, and as pf says, everyone makes mistakes. So I think ergo was just looking for a reason to vote for tar over glork.
Last day, I wasn't thrilled with his dead-scum analysis (i didn't really see it as helpful) and him basically ignoring the cow wagon. Instead he places a vote on PF, a throw away vote. Despite calling cow scummy, he knew that he was going to come up town, so he stayed off the wagon.
There is also his activity issues, his vote on elmo, and yes, I believe it was a slip when he referenced Incog as town when they were discussing the opening flavor.
I certainly agree with all of this. In addition, the point that Ether was trying to get at yesterday with respect to Erg0 seems particularly damning on its own. Erg0 seemed to have a really difficult time clearing people as town. Now, obviously when a person is scum-hunting, he/she should be fairly leery/critical of each person individually to make sure one is making the right choice concerning a person's alignment but there should come a point in time in a game where you begin to lean a particular direction on people (including leaning town) and Erg0 failed to do this with a large portion of the players in the game. This was the highest praise Erg0 provided for anyone in his wrap-up of players:
Erg0, in post 686, wrote:At this point, I'm feeling best about Elmo and scot, based on consistency from both and what appears in hindsight to be a fairly opportunistic wagon hop onto Elmo by Tar on day 1.
but prior to this praise, he still managed to cast little seeds of doubt about Elmo in particular here:
Erg0, in post 661, wrote:Elmo seems to have some suspicions of Tar from the point where he replaces in, and the case he gives when voting him on day 2 is solid. The WIFOM part of my brain is whispering that he's trying too hard, but I can see why he'd want to give some good reasoning when putting someone within claim range so early on day 2.
Games oftentimes become like an aperture where the number of viable suspects available to scum for mislynching can decrease as the game goes on so scum have a tendency to try and make that "aperture" as wide as they can by continuously planting seeds of doubt in the minds of players instead of attempting to clear people as town. I feel like that's what Erg0 was doing with a number of players in his summaries post.
Hmm, I guess that's what Ether meant about him failing to clear people.
Erg0: Talk to me about your casual comment that Tar looked "like his SK self" on day 1. Why didn't you take it further? Looking back, it seems that just sorta floats out there on its own.
PF: You've been metagaming, right? What's your meta on Erg0 look like, specifically?
Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
I did actually vote Tar on day 1 - saying that I didn't take it further is incorrect.
Also, I already pointed out his inconsistency with Ether, which I had previously thought was a sign that she was potential scum (obviously not). It's hardly his only inconsistency, though - there are quite a few noted in my read-through.
I'll get to the rest of the above in a little bit.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
Erg0 wrote:I did actually vote Tar on day 1 - saying that I didn't take it further is incorrect.
You left your vote on him only for one real-life day though, and you never really pushed your vote to the point that a wagon on him could actually gain traction despite mentioning that he was your strongest suspect:
Erg0, in post 290, wrote:Tarhalindur is lurky and the reasoning behind his votes is pretty thin. Unlike SSK, he seems to want to appear to be trying to hunt scum. My previous experience with him leads me think he's playing to his scum meta. He's my strongest suspect right now.
The very next real-life day you switched your vote to Elmo after Patrick reasonless voted for him where you cited that the day's lynch really boiled down to only two players: hasdgfas or Elmo.
Erg0, in post 306, wrote:Looks like it's basically hasdgfas or Elmo, then.
I've pretty much overlooked Elmo up to this point due to his general lurkishness and agreeability (perhaps that was the point). I'm very concerned by his lack of activity as deadline approaches, though. His summary posts certainly show that he's done the reading, so I can't see any good reason for him not to have voted by now. I'm inclined to think that he was hoping to just throw a vote on the leading wagon (as foreshadowed by his suspicion of hasdgfas), but now doesn't want to draw attention to himself by casting the vote that pushes hasdgfas over the threshold for a deadline lynch. I'm not sure that he's quite as obvscum as Tar would have us believe, but I want to at least see a claim from him before deadline.
Unvote, Vote: Elmo
Prior to your vote, Elmo only had two votes (Tarhalindur and Patrick) which would mean that if you truly felt Tarhalindur was scummy, you could have easily tried to push something further to try and help get him lynched. It's not like fully developed wagons were formed at that time; a good portion of the votes seemed fairly tentative. Further, if Tarhalindur was your strongest suspect, I would expect you to question the motivation behind the Elmo-wagon much more than you did rather than going ahead and actually lending your support for it.
So, I decided to go back and look at the competing Elmo-Hascow wagons on Day 1.
Green text
are my additional thoughts. (I only added the formatting after I wrote the post because it was hard to read when I previewed it. I may have missed a tag somewhere.)
The Day 1 Hascow wagon starts with Incog reacting to Cow's "I can't remember the 4th person I was suspcious of" & "Oh yeah, vote MafiaSSK"
Erg0 puts vote 2 on the wagon saying he could see Hascow-MafiaSSK was a scumgroup.
Presumably, this makes Hascow's vote distancing. But given how I know the alignment of both Hascow and MafiaSSK, I know this is to completely wrong.
Glork adds to the Hascow wagon.
Not a peep out of anyone about Elmo until post 202 when Tar
scum
votes for him to pressure Elmo into posting content.
Mizzy votes for Patrick. Then Patrick and Mizzy have a big debate.
I disliked Mizzy's attack on Patrick then, and I still dislike it now.
At post 221 Scot adds his vote to the Hascow wagon.
mod wrote:hasdgfas - 4 (Ether, Erg0, Glork, scotmany12)
At this point, we have 2 confirmed townies (Ether and Glork) + Erg0 and Scot on the townie wagon.
Post 232, Hascow attacks Tar's vote for Elmo and responds to some of his attackers.
PokerFace comes back with the results of his meta'ing. The only comment that strikes me is this one:
PokerFace wrote:Tar has stopped going after Erg0 at the moment to put some pressure on Elmo which is a little off considering he is not doing too much either.
...which implies a Tar-Erg0 link.
Incog adds another vote to pressurise Elmo into voting following a prod.
Which looks opportunistic, IMO
Incognito wrote:Before this game began, Patrick and I had a conversation about how we both were hoping to not draw scum roles in this game. We joked around about the possibility of all three of me, Patrick, and Ether being the scum team and how horrible that would be since we all enjoy town roles much better than scum roles. 42% was the probability that all three of us would be aligned on the side of the town due to random distribution of roles if we assume a three-person scum team [(3/4) x (3/4) x (3/4)]. So my IGMEOY was in relation to that - the fact that it would mathematically be more probable for at least one of us to be aligned on the side of the scum as opposed to all three of us being town.
OK. So...Patrick is town. Ether is town. Incognito is ???
Incognito is also "inclined to believe" Hascow's vanilla claim. Unvotes and votes for Glork.
But he was voting for Elmo at the time, not Hascow. WTF?
Erg0 unvotes, bringing the Hascow wagon down to 3 votes.
<Kinda skimmed over the next page. Deadline was looming large>
Erg0 votes for Tar.
This is now somewhat more interesting now that PokerFace pointed out the Erg0-Tar link.
Tar's "aggressive townie" post
Mizzy unvotes
PokerFace votes Elmo,
for lack of content more than anything else it seems.
mod wrote:
Current deadline:
Approximately 26 hours from this post.
The Elmo wagon only happens in the last 24 hours:
Patrick places a deadline vote on Elmo.
Erg0 places a 4th vote on Elmo.
Glork believes the Elmo wagon is "chockful of opportunism" -
Given the people on that wagon, the only unconfirmed ones are PokerFace and Erg0. I'm pretty happy with the idea 2 townies (Patrick and PokerFace) + 2 scum (Tar and Erg0) on the townie wagon, with the third scum (Incog) putting his vote elsewhere to avoid linkage.
Mizzy does another of her voting-for-a-completely-irrelevant-people-just-before-a-lynch posts
Elmo claims vanilla and votes Hascow
Note that Incog is on neither of the wagons. (He is voting for Glork)
Elmo is deadline lynched.
From this, I'm calling a Erg0-Incognito scumteam.
~~~
So, following the analysis of the Day 1 wagons, I've decided to extend my analysis to look at Incog's voting.
Random/non-random vote for Erg0
vote Glork
vote Mizzy
vote Elmo, as pressure to post
vote Glork
Confirm vote Glork towards the end of Day 1 deadline
Day 2, votes Tar
votes Glork following the Tar cop claim
unvotes because he doesn't want a quicklynch
votes Glork (24 hours after the unvote)
<supports the flavour for Tar's FBI-but-still-a-normal-cop claim>
votes Tar immediately after Tar's confession. Hascow pulls him up on this. Now that Hascow is confirmed town, I think we should revisit this.
Day 3, votes Hascow
In truth, there's not a lot from this, except the quick Tar hammer.
The Elmo pressure-vote does look like opportunism, although he pulls out prior to deadline (but then, if I'm right, both Day 1 wagons were on townies. So Incog is just making sure he does not have townie blood on his hands)
I would like to lynch Incognito Today. However, since I'm now pretty confident of an Incog-Erg0 scumteam I'm happy to vote
Well this is odd. The other day I though that elderad was going to come at me today because he thought there was a conection between me and Tar in post #670 and now he makes a post that refers to me as town. Scotmany's reasons are very compeling and make some sence especially this part about making a throw away vote over voting for someone he thought was scummy.
scotmany12 wrote:Last day, I wasn't thrilled with his dead-scum analysis (i didn't really see it as helpful) and him basically ignoring the cow wagon. Instead he places a vote on PF, a throw away vote. Despite calling cow scummy, he knew that he was going to come up town, so he stayed off the wagon.
I like the idea of an Erg0 lynching for Scot's reasons and some of the reasons i mentioned in post #705. The reasons that still apply at least.
But there are somethings I want to know first.
eldarad wrote:
In truth, there's not a lot from this
, except the quick Tar hammer.
The Elmo pressure-vote does look like opportunism, although he pulls out prior to deadline (but then, if I'm right, both Day 1 wagons were on townies. So Incog is just making sure he does not have townie blood on his hands)
I would like to lynch Incognito Today
. However, since I'm now pretty confident of an Incog-Erg0 scumteam I'm happy to vote
vote Erg0
because it is the current live bandwagon.
You said there wasn't alot on incognito and yet you would like to lynch him today. In general there is alot more analysis in your last post pretaining to Erg0 being scum than incognito, but those last words just seem so out of place. Is there some other reason you would prefer to lynch incognito today? And if so why aren't you going to try and start a wagon on him this early on day 4?
Also yesterday alot of people weighed in on what they thought about Elderad and Mizzy. Elmo never did (Or i've forgotten/missed where) while Erg0 just basically touched on the two during his analysis of days 1 and 2. What do Elmo and Erg0 think of Elderad and Mizzy after the exchange between Eld and Miz day3?
Elmo wrote:PF: You've been metagaming, right? What's your meta on Erg0 look like, specifically?
Like I aluded to day 1, I've never really noticed any great differences between Erg0's play as scum and his play as town. I think i'll just have to continue figuring out things as they go pretaining to this game. If i find time to look into this here further, I'll let you know.
When I joined this site, I was a software tester for mobile business applications and the song PokerFace was not yet written by Lady Gaga
Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly
