Open 776: Korina is a Cultist

[Auro]

My role PM says I'm the Antichrist, what does that mean?

[Auro]

Can you cult me pl0x?

[Auro]

Antichrist*

[Auro]

Why should I cult you?

Why not?

[Auro]

If you promise me a change in win-con, I can play to my future win-con.

[Auro]

Also, I'm going to truthfully answer one question per person

Hey I'll also do this btw
One question ONLY per person

[Auro]

VOTE: Alyssa The Lamb

[Auro]

@Korina: Nice loaded question. No.

[Auro]

Pagetop?

[Auro]

Hmm starting to think that was a bad idea.

[Auro]

Isn't it less fun if you keep randomly culting people? Like you can force randomness yeah but mehh takes the fun out of the game IMO

[Auro]

Plus, that's the most optimal strategy for me.
Optimal doesn't always equal fun, unfortunately.

Then what's the point of posting, even?
Like might as well just all auto-lynch today at least and tomorrow we'll have

one

cult-cult association which would be difficult to fish out anyway
D3 without cult lynches would have 4:3 worst case though, should be fun, but lynching cult then is still a loss right?

So town just has three lynches, has to lynch more cult than town, so we necessarily need 2 cult lynches? wait

[Auro]

Then this is like super cult-sided, no?

[Auro]

Optimal strategy for us would be to try and suck up to Korina to get culted, but if he's using an RNG... argh! -sigh-

[Auro]

I would like to form something similar to a townbloc with Chemist, Slaxx and Auro

SUPERSQUAD

[Auro]

VOTE: Alyssa The Lamb
Sorry for hammering so early, were you cult

[Auro]

So, I think Korina said he was randomizing recruits...although I guess maybe he shouldn't be taken at his word.

You're correct - while he said he's randomizing to discourage town hunting, he'd in reality want to maximize his chances.

Worst case

for us is random anyway, so.

[Auro]

why does randomizing recruits discourage townhunting exactly?

If we

know

that his strategy is truly randomization I think we have random chance of hitting cultist today.
Tomorrow we have one cult-cult association but that's also going to be hard to find IMO.

Actually on second thought, nevermind what I'm saying.

[Auro]

Not Cultist: Auro

How am I a "not cultist" read?

[Auro]

Thoughts from Auro and Farkran?

yes

[Auro]

Wait. No, we must include Suji in the bloc too. Then let's get lynching!

[Auro]

Do you think a standard strategy is optimal?

The only constant in whatever strategy is to be charismatic enough not to be the lynch ever

[Auro]

An alignment change means your win % goes way up, if you're town you should always play fully to town win-con and not "prepare" for potential changes, right?

[Auro]

Open to it. But why specifically?

Gut?

[Auro]

While the best chances for the anarchist would be to be recruited and win with the town, he would rather be lynched d1 than survive to n3 or lynched later. Maybe. It would be in his best interest to lynch cultists too though, since i guess if we lynch all of them he has to guess exactly zero cultists on n3? Unlikely, but the less names he has to get right, the better

1/9 chance if lynched D1 -> meh, might as well try to get recruited

[Auro]

Oh, I misinterpreted. But yeh while they can't predict recruitment vs N3 survival they'll never deliberately try to be the D1 lynch.
Also my strategy was for town/cult and not the anarchist

[Auro]

Its disadvantageous for me to go into the methods I plan on using regardless of alignment so I won't

Can you say

why

they're disadvantageous without actually spelling out the methods themselves?

[Auro]

I think Drixx is the most obvtown player rn

[Auro]

Plurality is in effect I think :<
otherwise no lynch would be game breaking

[Auro]

Then join us on the Ank wagon

[Auro]

Isn't what he's doing too blatant for cult to try though?
Good vote, RCE town.

[Auro]

I think Klick can be that cheeky though

[Auro]

So you think Homura is cult, Ank?

[Auro]

Why would Slaxx care if he's cult? There's no cult-cult association today

[Auro]

NAI at worst

[Auro]

To be more clear i am not RVSing, i think the joke is not actually a joke.

The same thing happened in the previous cult game where blatant scum claimed CL d1

I want alyssa lynched

Will all the perks of joining my cult change your mind?

You should have known better and recruit me n0 if you wanted me in. You made the choice, i think alyssa makes sense as a n0 target.

I would have randomized it if I were the leader

Can't outguess dice

Why? As a CL your true enemy are your own guesses, and anarchist's guesses. Why wouldn't you recruit a player with a solid reputation in order to avoid him being the anarchist?

Because this exact thing would happen where people automatically push the strongest player

This. I didn't like that slax seemed to be implying if CL randed them you (Alyssa) probably wouldn't be the N0 cult.

That indicates cult trying to outmaneuver town by being harder to predict, not defending specific players

I agreed with the thought itself. But not the implication you were town as a result.

This kind of quote replying only clogs up the thread!

[Auro]

Pagetop

[Auro]

I think they are probably town for the entrance though, even if it was...off-base?

Thinking Klick scum (cult) for trying to form a townbloc that way is +town though I think.

[Auro]

Ank, have you played with Korina before?

[Auro]

So who are we lynching? I'll blindly sheep Suji tbh

[Auro]

inb4 Suji votes Korina

[Auro]

Speculating on what Korina would or wouldn't do is all wifom.

Speculating on anything in mafia is WIFOM then, no?

[Auro]

VOTE: Homura

[Auro]

What is it what is it

[Auro]

Most likely cult + highest value town flip

So the 'interesting thing' in game makes you actually believe Korina RNG'd?
I dunno if Korina would actually engage with me the way he had about RNG if he actually RNG'd - it's as if he was trying to throw us off predicting him, no?

[Auro]

Suji, what do you think about Klick trying to form a townbloc at this stage of the game?

[Auro]

Cult have daytalk, no?

[Auro]

VOTE: Farkran

[Auro]

You're trying too hard therefore cultist

[Auro]

I was just screwing with you
Do you think Alyssa has good cult potential?

[Auro]

Suji, how much cult potential do I have? Would you be able to detail?

[Auro]

Do you think RCE has more than baseline cult potential?

[Auro]

I do not believe so. Do you?

I believe the opposite.

[Auro]

Apologies, but does this mean that you think RCEnigma has a higher potential to be Town?

Hey just putting it out there, no need to apologize for any question/clarification/disagreement with me, it's all good
Yes, I think he's town.

[Auro]

Auro could be Anarchist

My brain is fried

What makes you say that?

Auro is the anarchist

What makes you say that?

C'mon just repeating posts to spam is

[Auro]

I'm cult dumbass.

It's best to ignore cult dumbass though

[Auro]

VOTE: Alyssa The Lamb
Suji, do consider sheeping me here.

[Auro]

I got the pagetop ^_^
Trying to figure out if there's some post filter from user-side

[Auro]

Looooool not sure why I called Slaxx Drixx all game until now?

I actually thought one of the heads of Conspire was Drixx and you knew it for a while, then realized it was a typo, then was surprised others correctly knew you meant Slaxx, then joined in myself!

[Auro]

Gut

[Auro]

Jk, but I'll detail my reasons tomorrow - need to sleep right now, see y'all

[Auro]

Only prob I have with a Conspire lynch is: if I was Korina I'd be very wary of making an unknown hydra cult, because of the potential for awkward hydra dynamics.

[Auro]

Homura, if you're town I expect to see you aggressively cult-hunt.
Right now you just have that post and an Alyssa vote - even if there's good reason Korina wouldn't want to pick you, it's still a possibility he RNG'd and you're cult.

Fair enough? Will we be seeing more activity from you now?

[Auro]

I understand and relate to the lack of confidence!
But feel free to throw out your thought process as much as possible (that post pinged me this way, I feel this, I feel that) even if you're not -confident- in those stances. Basically just treat this thread like a thought-dump.
That way, at minimum we'll know you're town Cool?

[Auro]

inb4 "Auro is lamist"

[Auro]

He's being interestingly precise for how much shit he's pushing out. This is more consistent with him trying to show discord among the more active members and giving his cultist more room to hide by reducing the relative activity of everybody.

I had the same premise but different conclusion, but I'll wait a bit before saying anything about it.

[Auro]

didn't you have a scumcase on me auro

I will say wait for that too

[Auro]

I wonder if Homura could be getting coached

[Auro]

The arguments you're throwing + the timing maybe?

[Auro]

Actually, scratch that. I got the feeling you were discussing play with Korina while the rest of the players were posting, especially about why you wouldn't be the N0 cult, but it's very mild.

[Auro]

Auro what's your case on ank about?

Hey I'll just put it out there that I'm not seriously thinking through anything and going more on "gut" feels, so even though I was cheekily responding "gut" a few times there's some truth to it.
I'll ask to wait for some time before I give my case on Ank though.

I think Conspire is town. I don't think anonymous hydras are a good pick for N0 cult

at all

, and besides that, I don't find their posting awkward in a scummy manner - I read it as them trying to get into the game but not finding time, if that makes sense?

[Auro]

I'll be insulted.

Apologies, Homura - just replace 'coached' with 'planned'. I'll not treat you like a newbie

[Auro]

I think RCE is one of my strongest townreads at this point.

[Auro]

I think {Klick, Homura, Suji, Alyssa} would be my lynchpool for today.
I do believe Klick is cheeky enough to try and initiate a townbloc as cultist.

[Auro]

Auro is the anarchist

Auro is the anarchist

What makes you say that?

Auro could be Anarchist

My brain is fried

Auro could be Anarchist

My brain is fried

What makes you say that?

It's interesting that Korina responds to this twice in the

same

manner at different points (one early game and one during catchup) - I think if Slaxx was cult he'd simply talk about it in the cult PT at least one of the times?

[Auro]

pagetop

[Auro]

Alyssa, how strong are you on the greens in your reads list?

[Auro]

I wish Chemist posted more.

[Auro]

Auro. You’re in bad company on that Alyssa wagon.

Does it matter with just one cult?

VOTE: Klick

[Auro]

I only replace in town slots by the way.

I call the bluff.

[Auro]

What from Alyssa did you get townvibes from?

[Auro]

I'm basically down to Homura/Conspire

Fail to see why Insomnia's slot not in your PoE.

[Auro]

If I don't know someone at all, they'd be a non-entity to me, no?

[Auro]

You don't feel like Homura/Conspire are easy pushes?

[Auro]

My question does not carry that premise. I interpreted Farkran's last point as Conspire picking the "easy side of the push" and scumreading them for it; if that was true then he should also scumread people pushing other easy (in the sense of a lot of people pushing them) slots such as Homura/Conspire.

I'm not implying that easy push == town.

[Auro]

Things will Klick into place soon, Insomnia :3

[Auro]

One more angle: Don't you guys think cult would be having, ya know, more fun this game?

@Alyssa: Please read Conspire's ISO again - I don't think he's cult.

[Auro]

But whoever they are, it's more likely than not that as cult their tone would be different from what it is, no?
And do you not think the argument that they're a bad pick by virtue of being an unknown hydra holds any merit?

[Auro]

I'm not being a contrarian on purpose btw.

[Auro]

I'm thinking in different terms than that atm Auro

If there's a different angle that's very convincing, please detail?

[Auro]

I really don't see why their votes are so bad, so if you can explain I'd be glad.

[Auro]

I don't think I like the idea of lurker lynches either.

By going against the grain and soft-pushing the hard to lynch townies, and saying that lurker lynches are bad?
Given they're the only cult slot in the game, why bother?

[Auro]

I mean Esper did say he changed his mind when he referenced the first reason.
Also, they have a cult PT. I don't think they'd really be posting separately at all unless they wanted to, and if that was the case you'd not see the "emphasis to not look dissonant".

[Auro]

Auro, who are the hard to lynch townies, in your opinion?

You/Alyssa? That's what I understood Alyssa was implying, anyway.

[Auro]

@Alyssa: If they're afraid of appearing dissonant, they'd plan their trajectories in the cult PT first.

@Farkan: Replace 'lynch' with 'push' - there's going to be a lot of pushback if someone tries to lead a push on Alyssa/You/Me/Slaxx etc; and I'd think it's much easier to coast while pushing a slot like Homura. I agree that Alyssa was a convenient vote for a while, but they seem to have stuck with it even after the general thread consensus seemed to change.

[Auro]

I mean we wouldn't see so much of the early "posting separately" dissonance (like post 272) then and they'd be consistently non-dissonant from the beginning

[Auro]

Remember how Alyssa was going like "cult hasn't posted yet" when the last slot to speak was exactly homura and nobody picked that up

What do you mean?

I still think cult hasn't posted yet

So you think Homura is cult, Ank?

[Auro]

Sure, Alyssa, but Esper clearly stated that he "changed his mind". If they were trying to appear solvey and non-dissonant there are ways to do it more naturally without explicitly just saying so.

[Auro]

I mean that nobody actually pushed there until she actually spoke, and even then the wagon dropped almost immediately

What would the former argument imply?
Well, the latter seems a bit post-hoc-y, no?

[Auro]

@Farkan: Yes, I believe that at that point of time Homura would have appeared as a good push for various reasons, even if the consensus shifted a while later (and to Conspire, which Conspire can't hop on ).

I disagree with you about the dissonance part, as my argument is about the *amount* of dissonance rather than having dissonance itself. The "dissonance" they presented was pretty awkward and appeared unplanned (++likely town).

If they wanted to appear dissonant for whatever reason, they would've planned it.
If they wanted to appear dissonant and then converge (which is ? anyway), they would've gone about it in a better manner than an explicit "I changed my mind"
If they didn't want to appear dissonant, they'd very very prolly plan it out; plus it's not even hard to not appear dissonant in thread anyway.

The "dissonance" was aimless, the explicit convergence was also aimless.

[Auro]

I take this game ridiculously easy if I'm lucky enough to get recruited N0.

I feel like you are.

Auro, I'm willing to do gambits, but I'm not this silly
If I were cult this game would be ez win.

Meanwhile there's pretty clear town motivation in my play if you think about it

. I thought you were doing the same thing I was.

This appeal -- especially the bolded -- feels scummy.
I don't think trying to form a townbloc is really a "gambit" and I don't think Klick was aware that attempting to form a townbloc would be seen as scummy when he actually tried to do so - I can see cultist!Klick thinking he was mimicking town when he did that.

[Auro]

Let's talk about Klick?

[Auro]

Maybe. I have never been in a hydra, and i didn't play with enough hydrae to discern whether they would plan harmony or dissonance as an AI measure, so i can only make logical inference that i would not - either we agree or disagree, and that would apply to scumread pushes as well as mislynch pushes/self-defensive posting.

I'll break down my argument:
1. The level of awkward dissonance (and reversal) there doesn't look planned.
2. Unplanned dissonance more likely comes from town than scum.

Do you disagree with (1), or (2)?

[Auro]

Anyone buying this as an actual thought that town would have?

Which thought?
The first one can indeed come from town who's seen scum (extend to Antichrist in this case) joke about it.
The second one can indeed come from town who sees no utility in those kinds of jokes.

While it's not a

good

argument necessarily, it certainly can be a town one, no?

[Auro]

@Farkran: Why must you need personal experience to make an inference about (2)?
I'd say apply the same metrics you would to a non-hydra slot.
Unplanned dissonance means a lack of agenda.
A lack of agenda comes more ++likely from town than scum, especially in a gamestate where you're the only scum and you're getting pushed.

@Insomnia: The head was treating it as likely +cult equity for Alyssa, so I'd say it's a part of the Alyssa push? "She's likely telling the truth, therefore cult".
Yeah but they're not presenting it as some form of damning argument, no? They just said they -think- one of the claim-jokes was true.
If they didn't actually believe that, I don't think they'd even present it as an argument.

[Auro]

I think klick has been displaying a lot of protown content, and has initially pushed seemingly easy targets (Alyssa), then reconsidered and switched his vote on Conspire, for which he is still the wagon driver - meaning that he wasn't pushing the easy choice at the time - i think he was probing Conspire at the time, then things sticked because Conspire's reaction was poor. That's how i see it.

Wrt the argument "cult!klick would form a town bloc", i don't particularly agree - the day was going quite smooth without his intervention, if we consider coasting as scum indicative, klick has been doing the opposite of that

I think viewing the whole game through the lens of "were they pushing an easy lynch or not" isn't anywhere enough to nail good scum players. The argument holds more weight for... ehrm, "weak" scum players maybe but Klick is definitely adept at playing scum. I can back this up pretty easily if needed.

I see zero "probing" of Conspire from Klick. He left the vote, and? There's no engagement at all with Conspire.
He has stated the following: "I think Conspire is a good lynch", "It's literally just Conspire", "Conspire is actively scummy". This doesn't exactly look like solving, no?

Coasting is scum indicative, but not-coasting isn't town indicative.

Klick

wouldn't coast as either alignment.

[Auro]

@Insomnia: But they already had one reason that at least from their PoV was good enough.
And I'm not saying that their not-presenting of it as damning is explicitly town indicative. You said that thought process *never* comes from town because town-trolls have existed in the past; I'm arguing that it's a *plausible* town process because they didn't believe it was damning.

"Yeah town slots have trolled before but I don't think there's any reason they should; so I think the troll might be scum" -> Plausible
"Trolling 100% means they're scum, even though I've seen town trolls before" -> Implausible

In fact, you can replace this with any behaviour really. Every scummy behaviour has come from town in the past. Self-voting, for example.

[Auro]

Auro, read my posts through the lens of

someone who knows they have a very slim chance of winning this game

I think you're reading me and going 'yeah I can see how Klick would want to do this to not get lynched'
But just because scum motivation exists doesn't mean it is the answer, or that town motivation doesn't exist

Bolded implying that you're not putting in the same amount of effort that you would if treating this as a normal game?
If so, I agree - you are sorta taking this easy. Note that

you

said you'd be taking this easy as cult, not me.

I can see the town motivation in forming a bloc. But that's not gamesolving; I don't see the amount of gamesolving I'd expect you to have.
It feels like you're treating this like some form of survivor game over a hunt, if you get what I mean.

And I'm scumreading other individual aspects of your play, like the appeal in 609.

[Auro]

Sure, Probability > Possibility.

But plausibility implies a reasonable level of possibility. The premise of your argument, Insomnia, was that town would -never- have that thought process.
After I argued that it's plausible, you're saying it's now a matter of probability and that scum are more likely to make that argument than town - but why? In fact, your interpretation of it as a dichotomy itself is wrong! I joke-claimed

Anarchist

, which is not a basis to push me on anyway (and they never pushed me either). It wasn't a dichotomy.

[Auro]

@Klick: But that is exactly what I'm saying you're doing? You're just playing the game out to win.
The setup is Survivor for cult, but more Mafia for town Town loses by just surviving.

[Auro]

I know. I didn't deny the Survivor aspect to playing town. But given the dismal winning chances of town, I think town should be very focused on hunting cult, whereas for cult this doesn't really matter.
Apologies for making the game unfun, Klick, if you're simply town trying to have a fun time not strictly aiming for a win.

[Auro]

@Farkran:
I don't think you need to have a very good grasp to apply normal scumhunt methods to hydra dynamics.
I can guarantee you that they share some form of communication.
Having a hydra PT is standard for any game; they likely have Discord chat if not a PT.
It's been established that Cult has daytalk, I think. So if they're scum, they -definitely- have an avenue to plan, and with Korina included too.

I don't think there's more *reason* for town to not co-ordinate, Farkran. I think it's more likely that town

doesn't bother

co-ordinating sometimes over scum not bothering to; so a lack of co-ordination in an unplanned manner is more likely to come from town. It doesn't look like a fight, it looks like they're just individually throwing out opinions and just haven't found a chance to talk to each other yet.

Regarding Klick, say I agree it's a good metric - I still think you're applying the metric wrong. I don't think Conspire was even remotely a "hard push". I think it's incredibly easy to shift a trajectory there. If Klick was engaging with and pushing a bunch of slots aggressively, I'd agree - but he's clearly not been doing that. You're also ignoring the latter part of my argument where I show he's not even really "probing" Conspire? He's only repeatedly said they're a good/optimal lynch.

Hey, I'm enjoying engaging with you btw!

[Auro]

In this game, assuming you're never lynched the probability of getting culted at random is 27%, kinda meh Also I never said Klick's LAMIST, I just said he's not solving at the level I'd expect him to as town.
If town doesn't gamesolve as much as they would if not for the cult mechanic, then it's on them because that's also cult play.

[Auro]

How do you get a read on the game on page 1?

VOTE: Insomnia

[Auro]

Eh, I guess I can see how Insomnia interpreted that.

[Auro]

still, i don't think that every player wouldn't bother to sound dissonant as town. I wouldn't.

I never said they bothered

to

sound dissonant? I'm saying they didn't bother to

co-ordinate

and the lack of co-ordination is much more likely to come from town. Sure there's the factor of who the players actually are, but even accounting for that the likelihood remains high.

I feel like I've debated the other reasons - are there any we disagree about, or additional unstated ones?
(We can actually wait for Klick's own answers to this, because I'm pretty confident you're town)

If Klick's vote was part of an attempt to gauge reactions from Conspire/other slots, etc - he would have stated that by now. This should be NAI at best, as he could have made that arbitrary vote on any slot. You're explaining a town motivation when there's just as likely scum motivation.

[Auro]

What isn't personality related / just a theory?

[Auro]

Also, no. Lolhammers won't exactly go punished this game.

[Auro]

What's that supposed to be a response to?

[Auro]

Rawr?

Alyssa's town I guess.

[Auro]

It stuck largely because their tone in response to getting pressure comes off as standoffish. They feel like they're trying to do exactly what they should do to look like a good towny and not get lynched. They asked 'why are you voting me', didn't follow up when they got ignored (because that would attract more attention/be 'defensive'), and they keep giving these neutral inoffensive takes on the game.
It's largely a gut/tone thing but it doesn't feel like they drew town here.

Alyssa, rate this argument

[Auro]

I really struggle to see people replacing out of positions that are practically autowins tbh.

[Auro]

@RCE: So what about the Avengers Hydra? Also, wildly different contexts and Hydra size.
@Insom: You're citing planned (or at least intentional) dissonance; that too a *singular* instance of *you* doing it and then saying it's hence more likely to come from scum. See any problems with that?

@Klick: So all it takes to be a "townie" post is an ordered readslist that looks like yours?

[Auro]

Not cult PoE :

Alyssa the sacrificial lamb
Klick
Auro
Sujimichi
insomnia
RCEnigma

Cult PoE:

Homura
Farkran (probably thread spewed at this point although that's probably a bad take so i'm keeping it here.)
Slaxx
Conspire

This was a good post

Chemist1422

Farkran

Korina

Sujimichi
Auro

Homura
Conspire

Alyssa the Lamb
Slaxx, replacing The Allfather

RCEnigma

Klick

Oh yeah
This readslist at this time felt

right and realistic and like it'd easily come from a town mindset

PEdit: Chemist doesn't replace out of the clut slot, and that last post is good

Bolded explanation in the second quote feels overdone.
I don't think Klick townreads people simply off "realistic" reads lists especially when the poster would be the only cult slot.
Like c'mon, an unexplained reads list is like

the

easiest thing to fake.

[Auro]

Jk, but I'll detail my reasons tomorrow - need to sleep right now, see y'all

Apologies. You stated here that you would address later.

Incidentally @auro did this happen?

No. But, I'm fine with Alyssa town now I think~
And one of the reasons I was delaying for is still a good reason to delay for in a different context; sorry I'm being obscure about this

[Auro]

I don't think limiting options matters much, just having ~2 slots as scum in a readslist is fine to coast off of, and tomorrow we'll start from scratch anyway.
While you're my favorite lynch atm I don't think I'll be pushing any further; if anyone has questions or wants to engage in maybe-irrelevant theory debate I'll be here :3

[Auro]

It is a pretty awesome idea. Having a lot of townreads avoids conflict, and it's definitely possible to fake convincing trajectories to reverse them while appearing town. Just takes a bit more effort to present conviction.

[Auro]

Pagetop mine.

[Auro]

Hmm, I think Insomnia's town just off tone.

[Auro]

What if Farkran cult-reads Klick but is saying he's town anyway hoping to get culted by Korina

[Auro]

whoever plays to a wincon that they don't have yet is breaking site rules

You play to win for yourself, there's around a 33% chance you're culted if you're never lynched.
Since culting isn't random, playing

towards

getting culted (which then improves your win%) is a valid strategy.

[Auro]

I'm not saying they should, I'm saying that's not breaking site rules.

[Auro]

Man I was writing this long ass EV post and realized I made a really minor mistake in how I treated an assumption ugh

[Auro]

What do you think about Clique's Klick

[Auro]

ok then don't mind me setting up getting culted and not wanting to help town at all.

Yeah don't help town, just sheep me.

[Auro]

whoever plays to a wincon that they don't have yet is breaking site rules

or should be considered as breaking the rules at least. they're game throwing. it's literally the same thing.

wow that's wrong in so many ways

ok then don't mind me setting up getting culted and not wanting to help town at all.

Insomnia locktown for this, btw.

[Auro]

Farkran, if you were cult, would you be generally agreeable with vocal players, or try taking opposite stances to appear towny?

[Auro]

wow that's wrong in so many ways

ok then don't mind me setting up getting culted and not wanting to help town at all.

Also, Anarchist obviously would play towards getting culted; if the rest of town didn't, cult would find Anarchist

[Auro]

I was talking about his attempt to create one, yeah.
Suji, Homura is a newbie (I think), if she was cult she'd definitely be coached.

Do her posts give you a "coached" feeling?

Also, town often end up not contributing; when you can't afford to mislynch this ceases to be a very important factor, no?

[Auro]

Suji is locktown :3

[Auro]

but a hydra is rarely a lurker and might be harder to read

Both parts are incorrect.
Hydrae are often both easier to read, and also are likely to lurk out as scum.

[Auro]

I don't think Korina recruits Chemist N0

Why didn't you think that?

[Auro]

That provides evidence against Korina picking Conspire, no?
Since the heads are unknown, the chance that they're a "reputably accurate player" is really low; a very small proportion of users on this site have super-accurate reads.

[Auro]

Doubt Korina would bet on an unknown hydra being:
1. An accurate reader
2. A charismatic slot that can avoid a lynch
3. An active scum player
4. Hard to read as scum
etc, as players satisfying these conditions are not the majority.

[Auro]

Cite the reasons, please!

[Auro]

I think a

lurker recruit is a pretty solid N0 recruit

for exactly that reason - it's WIFOM

Chemist gets

mislynched a lot and it has a lot to do with lurking

. If you want someone who won't get lynched then Chemist/Homura aren't the initially intuitive choices.

[Auro]

Because you're being inconsistent in a way that's consistent with you trying to fit reasoning to what you want your reads to be.

[Auro]

Suji has made precise observations that I don't think she would as cult.
RCE has been obvtown.
I think Alyssa has been obvtown as well - give me a cult case on her?

[Auro]

High rep player - Agree.
Bad introduction - If I offer evidence that she does these sort of introductions as town, this should be NAI - agree?
Only started to play when wagoned - Can you go into detail with quotes, if possible?
Doubling down on Conspire - I could argue that Klick did this while I was pushing him, too.

[Auro]

It was decent enough reasoning for the initial townbloc.

This doesn't square with "

pretty solid

N0 recruit" to me.
That factor should hold independent of the game since it was done N0.
If it had enough weight to townbloc someone then, it should have some weight now too - if you genuinely believed it I don't think you'd be dismissive of it to that extent.

[Auro]

I had the same feeling about myself early on, he kept quoting a lot of my posts

And what do you think that implies?

[Auro]

What do you think I was trying to catch you on in 835?

Btw, game aside, everything alright? You were in an off-mood, no? Better now?

[Auro]

Auro you feel more confident on insomnia as cult over Klick? Or is it just the wagon not getting momentum influencing your vote?

Insomnia town, forgot to move my vote

VOTE: Klick

[Auro]

@GIF: I thought it was clearly a reaction test.

[Auro]

"I only rep into townslots, your move cultists".

[Auro]

Page 25, p sure klick is town.

like how

[Auro]

I take it you haven't played with Insomnia before?

[Auro]

I'm not saying take the meta change post seriously, I'm talking about the parts where you scumread him for cringy posts

[Auro]

But yeah I'm in a dilemma here.
This game is pretty anti-townsided so I need to try my darndest to lynch correctly, but if I actually do lynch correctly today cult leader can just cult me out of spite. Being culted means I have higher chance to mean but that means I waste my efforts. And I hate efforting so much that I would be mad if my efforts were to be in vain.

It would be difficult to play Cult after leading a Cult change though, doubt Korina would take such an action out of spite.

[Auro]

I only roll town, but that's based more on probability of 75% rolling a town slot and 25% in a scum one.
Your move scum.

[Auro]

*Sigh* Homura is a better lynch than Conspireslot.

[Auro]

V/LA for a day

[Auro]

Alyssa is too scummy to be scum

[Auro]

Farkran, can you summarize my reasoning for Klick cult and then demonstrate which parts of it are "bad"?

[Auro]

So why did you think this Auro? Why did you think this was likely to come from cult-Klick instead of town-Klick?

Can you cite an instance of you saying something like "there's town motivation in my play if you think about it" as town before?

[Auro]

There's some difference between "there's town motivation in my play" versus "this is my town play" though. It's like in the former you're justifying your play.

[Auro]

I have noticed that you suddenly sprung to action when Farkran voted Alyssa this making your plurality lynch viable

[Auro]

Farkran, can you summarize my reasoning for Klick cult and then demonstrate which parts of it are "bad"?

My perception of your scumread of klick is that you don't believe he would be forming a townbloc as town, he seems to be taking things too easy and he cannot get his things straight (i.e. inconsistency around the lurkers).

I don't think those are good reasons to scumread him - i don't see a cult agenda, he should be trying to identify the anarchist and push for a town mislynch, but there isn't a trace of that in any of his posts.

Why do you think you'd see his efforts to identify the anarchist here instead of the cult PT?
He's pretty blatantly been pushing for a "not me" mislynch - what do you mean? Shall I quote every post where he calls Conspire/Homura the best lynch, etc?

[Auro]

i don't see a cult agenda

Describe a cult agenda and how it would differ from town agenda, please.

[Auro]

he should be trying to identify the anarchist and push for a town mislynch, but there

isn't a trace of that in any of his posts

.

You're correct in your interpretation of it; it was a rebuttal to the quoted.
Do you disagree?

[Auro]

When was RCE ever a "hot wagon" lol only one slot is pushing him.
Btw @GIF, RCE is obvtown and I don't remember the reasons

[Auro]

Thought about it, and nah

[Auro]

gut

[Auro]

I simply think you're pushing on your reads hard enough that saying "there's no trace of it" is false.

[Auro]

And even then I have a problem with the overall statement itself - I don't see how a "cult agenda" is very different from a town one, and not pushing anyone while focusing on pure survival is culty anyway.

[Auro]

Basic "agenda" is to keep yourself from getting lynched and look towny in either case. I've explained my scumread before?

[Auro]

Sell me on a better slot to lynch, Klick, and if I'm convinced I'll go there.

[Auro]

A cult would much rather be lynched because that way, if they suggest a target and it turns out to be the antichrist, they're the sole reason they lose.

[Auro]

Pure survival is not part of the cult agenda in this game.

Agree, they also want to look town by making up reads, etc. - so?

[Auro]

Sorry, don't feel like thinking right now. I'll respond to your posts properly later, Farkran.

[Auro]

On what basis should I re-evaluate? Nothing he posted gave me enough concern.

[Auro]

I have a crappy memory - why should I constantly hold every read's reasoning in my head? I just sorted him town early in the game and left that aside.

[Auro]

I'm happy with the plural lynch

[Auro]

Really can't expend much mental energy - sorry for being an ass, GIF.
Do you agree that Sujimichi is likely town?
I'll just sheep her onto RCE if she's convinced.

[Auro]

Cool, then just convince her about RCE and she'll vote there and I'll sheep her

[Auro]

I don't think he's right here

This is true! hahaha

[Auro]

Why? There's a chance you can get culted at night, no?

[Auro]

Everything gets reset D2

[Auro]

Like townreads at least. Cultreads wouldn't.

[Auro]

How do you know he's town now and not cult?

[Auro]

Is that a BoP level read?

[Auro]

VOTE: RCEnigma

[Auro]

I'm just blind sheeping Suji ^_^

[Auro]

I mean, that was around the time I was pushing Klick, right? He said the equivalent of "fine, maybe let's not lynch just because he has content" so I don't see a glaring inconsistency there

[Auro]

Weren't they lurking then anyway?
I was pushing Klick, that could've knocked Klick to the bottom to him, no?
He could've thought a Klick vote was better than lurkers, etc

He didn't townread Klick, Klick was nullscum tier
etc

[Auro]

[Auro]

I began to push Klick between 515 and 617, voted Klick, RCE was townreading me I think, so I don't see why you'd call it a "read out of nowhere"

[Auro]

Homura do you think Alyssa is cult?

His cultist meaning? Korina?

Homura do you think Alyssa is cult?

Largely diminished how exactly

A slot that's hard to differentiate doesn't suddenly become less valuable to cult when town is aware of the value within it. It's only true when there's only one such slot in the game, which there isn't.

I feel like we're on two different pages here. You said I'm hard to differentiate because I'm a lurker, which means Korina gains more value from culting me. But now that I've been wagoned and I'm in several players' lynchpools, Korina recruiting me later in the game is high risk, because I'm under scrutiny. My slot has already lost its value by engaging in this 1v1 with you.

Homura do you think Alyssa is cult?

Yes, I think she has higher cult equity and is pushing me to take the pressure off of her.

How does cult gain from clearing you as a cult target in that case?

What does Alyssa gain by pushing you against conspire who is a stronger wagon with more weight behind it?

Or what you think about conspire's equity. In as many words as you want.

This doesn't count? What would you expect otherwise?
(keep in mind Conspire was lurking then)

[Auro]

Like if he had stated "Oh, I scumread Klick more now" or "Oh, I guess I'll sheep Auro then" you wouldn't scumread him for it?
I thought it was pretty obviously the latter

[Auro]

When you're hunting for one cult out of 9, that (transparency to that level) would be a very misleading metric