Open 776: Korina is a Cultist


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Post Post #700 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:53 am

Post by Klick »

If I get lynched today I have to rely on back-to-back scum lynches in the next two days and that is basically just a loss.
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Post Post #701 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:58 am

Post by Auro »

I know. I didn't deny the Survivor aspect to playing town. But given the dismal winning chances of town, I think town should be very focused on hunting cult, whereas for cult this doesn't really matter.
Apologies for making the game unfun, Klick, if you're simply town trying to have a fun time not strictly aiming for a win.
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Post Post #702 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:22 am

Post by Klick »

I legit think Conspire has the highest odds of flipping scum here.
Homura's a decent shot too.

You/RCE/Suji/Farkran have all towntold pretty hard. Drixx and Alyssa don't feel scummy either at this point. insomnia's posts have been pretty good and I don't think Chemist flakes out of the lone scum slot.
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Post Post #703 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:26 am

Post by Klick »

I truly think that the strategy that gives any townie the highest odds of winning today is forming a 4-5 person townbloc and refusing to lynch outside of it at any point.
I'm satisfied with Slaxx/Alyssa/Farkran (if Slaxx and Farkran are fine with Alyssa). I'm open to alternatives.
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Post Post #704 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:35 am

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In post 689, Auro wrote:@Farkran: Why must you need personal experience to make an inference about (2)?
I'd say apply the same metrics you would to a non-hydra slot.
Unplanned dissonance means a lack of agenda.
A lack of agenda comes more ++likely from town than scum, especially in a gamestate where you're the only scum and you're getting pushed.
Because, not having any direct experience of being IN a hydra, or playing WITH other hydrae, i don't have a particularly good grasp of how people perceive hydra harmony or hydra dissonance. My logical inference would be to find it NAI, but perhaps this is not what the general consensus is, and this may lead to actively try to force dissonance or harmony when speaking from a hydra account to gain town points. I cannot apply the same metric to non-hydra slots unless they share a PT somehow, either scum/mason/neighbors; in all of those cases there usually is forced dissonance to avoid associatives, but there isn't any such thing coming from a hydra.

I don't think unplanned dissonance necessarily implies a lack of agenda, but it does imply a lack of agreement between the heads. I don't think there is more reason for a town hydra not to coordinate themselves before posting than there is for a scum hydra though. Why would i not coordinate with my other town head about our reads before outing them in the main thread? Likewise, why would i not coordinate with my other scum head (and the rest of the scumteam) for which mislynches to push and how to look the towniest as possible? I don't know, forced or genuine dissonance is just something i would not do. If i had fights to make, i would solve them privately as any alignment, and eventually out my thoughs in the main thread if i feel they would be useful to understand how i arrived to a conclusion.

(sorry, i had this written up but i got caught in other stuff and forgot to post)
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Post Post #705 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:39 am

Post by Farkran »

In post 692, Auro wrote:
In post 688, Farkran wrote:I think klick has been displaying a lot of protown content, and has initially pushed seemingly easy targets (Alyssa), then reconsidered and switched his vote on Conspire, for which he is still the wagon driver - meaning that he wasn't pushing the easy choice at the time - i think he was probing Conspire at the time, then things sticked because Conspire's reaction was poor. That's how i see it.

Wrt the argument "cult!klick would form a town bloc", i don't particularly agree - the day was going quite smooth without his intervention, if we consider coasting as scum indicative, klick has been doing the opposite of that
I think viewing the whole game through the lens of "were they pushing an easy lynch or not" isn't anywhere enough to nail good scum players. The argument holds more weight for... ehrm, "weak" scum players maybe but Klick is definitely adept at playing scum. I can back this up pretty easily if needed. :P

I see zero "probing" of Conspire from Klick. He left the vote, and? There's no engagement at all with Conspire.
He has stated the following: "I think Conspire is a good lynch", "It's literally just Conspire", "Conspire is actively scummy". This doesn't exactly look like solving, no?

Coasting is scum indicative, but not-coasting isn't town indicative.
Klick
wouldn't coast as either alignment.
I meant no offense to klick's scumplay, but with just 1 scum available i think easy pushes are one of the most reliable sources of info to trail on. One of the peculiarity of cult games - in my experience - has been that being lamisty has much lower scum equity than in other setups, and everything klick has been doing looks extremely protown on a surface level.
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Post Post #706 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:43 am

Post by Alyssa The Lamb »

In post 705, Farkran wrote:One of the peculiarity of cult games - in my experience - has been that being lamisty has much lower scum equity than in other setups
I'm curious why you think this is

I have never thought about it so I'm interested in it on a theory level
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Post Post #707 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:44 am

Post by Farkran »

In post 702, Klick wrote:I legit think Conspire has the highest odds of flipping scum here.
Homura's a decent shot too.

You/RCE/Suji/Farkran have all towntold pretty hard. Drixx and Alyssa don't feel scummy either at this point. insomnia's posts have been pretty good and I don't think Chemist flakes out of the lone scum slot.
In post 703, Klick wrote:I truly think that the strategy that gives any townie the highest odds of winning today is forming a 4-5 person townbloc and refusing to lynch outside of it at any point.
I'm satisfied with Slaxx/Alyssa/Farkran (if Slaxx and Farkran are fine with Alyssa). I'm open to alternatives.
My only reservation wrt Alyssa is that she had undergone a significant tonal change from her introduction, which might be a consequence of her being scumread regardless of alignment - i think that she might have tried to push Homura as a coast-like strategy, but as i said nobody picked up, so now she's trying to push her counterwagon Conspire with a weird trajectory based on hydra dissonance.

But i mean, i made a very similar argument on Conspire - this is one of the situations i would label "TvS" in a standard game and we could lynch one through the other, but in a game where alignments shift over night it's not a particularly good idea, so i am trying to pick one as accurately as possible, and i want to hear Conspire again before doing that.
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Post Post #708 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:45 am

Post by Farkran »

In post 706, Alyssa The Lamb wrote:
In post 705, Farkran wrote:One of the peculiarity of cult games - in my experience - has been that being lamisty has much lower scum equity than in other setups
I'm curious why you think this is

I have never thought about it so I'm interested in it on a theory level
Because one of the added conditions to your wincon would be being culted and win alongside cult, so you either consciously (borderline cheating) or subconsciously (can't do much about it) try to look even more town than you do as scum in a standard game. This is even more true in THIS particular game.
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Post Post #709 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:46 am

Post by Auro »

@Farkran:
I don't think you need to have a very good grasp to apply normal scumhunt methods to hydra dynamics.
I can guarantee you that they share some form of communication.
Having a hydra PT is standard for any game; they likely have Discord chat if not a PT.
It's been established that Cult has daytalk, I think. So if they're scum, they -definitely- have an avenue to plan, and with Korina included too.

I don't think there's more *reason* for town to not co-ordinate, Farkran. I think it's more likely that town
doesn't bother
co-ordinating sometimes over scum not bothering to; so a lack of co-ordination in an unplanned manner is more likely to come from town. It doesn't look like a fight, it looks like they're just individually throwing out opinions and just haven't found a chance to talk to each other yet.

Regarding Klick, say I agree it's a good metric - I still think you're applying the metric wrong. I don't think Conspire was even remotely a "hard push". I think it's incredibly easy to shift a trajectory there. If Klick was engaging with and pushing a bunch of slots aggressively, I'd agree - but he's clearly not been doing that. You're also ignoring the latter part of my argument where I show he's not even really "probing" Conspire? He's only repeatedly said they're a good/optimal lynch.

Hey, I'm enjoying engaging with you btw! :D
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Post Post #710 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:50 am

Post by Alyssa The Lamb »

In post 707, Farkran wrote:My only reservation wrt Alyssa is that she had undergone a significant tonal change from her introduction, which might be a consequence of her being scumread regardless of alignment - i think that she might have tried to push Homura as a coast-like strategy, but as i said nobody picked up, so now she's trying to push her counterwagon Conspire with a weird trajectory based on hydra dissonance.
My entrance to the game was meant to get me a read on the game.

My push on Homura is roughly when I exited the info gathering phase and entered solve mode
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Post Post #711 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:58 am

Post by Auro »

In this game, assuming you're never lynched the probability of getting culted at random is 27%, kinda meh :P Also I never said Klick's LAMIST, I just said he's not solving at the level I'd expect him to as town.
If town doesn't gamesolve as much as they would if not for the cult mechanic, then it's on them because that's also cult play. :P
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Post Post #712 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:11 am

Post by insomnia »

How do you get a read on the game on page 1?
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Post Post #713 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:14 am

Post by Auro »

insomnia wrote:How do you get a read on the game on page 1?
VOTE: Insomnia
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Post Post #714 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:15 am

Post by insomnia »

Calmez-vous Sherlock. Ank is speaking on a macro lens, my page 1 analysis is not about that. It’s micro.

I assumed she’s talking about the state of the game and all cuz that’s what she always talks about.
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Post Post #715 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:19 am

Post by Alyssa The Lamb »

In post 712, insomnia wrote:How do you get a read on the game on page 1?
In post 714, insomnia wrote:Calmez-vous Sherlock. Ank is speaking on a macro lens, my page 1 analysis is not about that. It’s micro.

I assumed she’s talking about the state of the game and all cuz that’s what she always talks about.
By seeing how people react

Obviously I have a rough idea of how I expect the game to go, so I go about trying to confirm or deny that and/or narrow down the possibilities that come to mind

A lot of my earlier posts were specifically for this type of deduction

Lol I almost let it keep seduction
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Post Post #716 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:21 am

Post by Auro »

Eh, I guess I can see how Insomnia interpreted that.
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Post Post #717 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:22 am

Post by Farkran »

In post 709, Auro wrote:@Farkran:
I don't think you need to have a very good grasp to apply normal scumhunt methods to hydra dynamics.
I can guarantee you that they share some form of communication.
Having a hydra PT is standard for any game; they likely have Discord chat if not a PT.
It's been established that Cult has daytalk, I think. So if they're scum, they -definitely- have an avenue to plan, and with Korina included too.

I don't think there's more *reason* for town to not co-ordinate, Farkran. I think it's more likely that town
doesn't bother
co-ordinating sometimes over scum not bothering to; so a lack of co-ordination in an unplanned manner is more likely to come from town. It doesn't look like a fight, it looks like they're just individually throwing out opinions and just haven't found a chance to talk to each other yet.

Regarding Klick, say I agree it's a good metric - I still think you're applying the metric wrong. I don't think Conspire was even remotely a "hard push". I think it's incredibly easy to shift a trajectory there. If Klick was engaging with and pushing a bunch of slots aggressively, I'd agree - but he's clearly not been doing that. You're also ignoring the latter part of my argument where I show he's not even really "probing" Conspire? He's only repeatedly said they're a good/optimal lynch.

Hey, I'm enjoying engaging with you btw! :D
I definitely don't have a good grasp around hydrae, because i lack experience. My logical inference is still that, as town VTs they have a duty not to get scumread, and that's what they should try to do. "Should", because i know more than well enough that there are a wholesome lot of players who don't adhere to this theory - still, i don't think that
every
player wouldn't bother to sound dissonant as town. I wouldn't. As a conclusion of this argument though, i can agree that the dissonance is NAI at worst or town AI at best, so i don't think it's a good reason to push there. There are other reasons, though.

Wrt klick, look at his vote on Conspire in post . It's a blank vote, shifting away from the highest wagon Alyssa. That's what i mean by probing. I don't think klick WANTED to make a push on Conspire - he tried a random push outside his PoE, and it sticked because of Conspire and other people's reactions.

Klick, what's your take on this? Why is Conspire a good lynch?
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Post Post #718 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:26 am

Post by insomnia »

In post 716, Auro wrote:Eh, I guess I can see how Insomnia interpreted that.
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Post Post #719 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:31 am

Post by Auro »

In post 717, Farkran wrote:still, i don't think that every player wouldn't bother to sound dissonant as town. I wouldn't.
I never said they bothered
to
sound dissonant? I'm saying they didn't bother to
co-ordinate
and the lack of co-ordination is much more likely to come from town. Sure there's the factor of who the players actually are, but even accounting for that the likelihood remains high.

I feel like I've debated the other reasons - are there any we disagree about, or additional unstated ones?
(We can actually wait for Klick's own answers to this, because I'm pretty confident you're town)

If Klick's vote was part of an attempt to gauge reactions from Conspire/other slots, etc - he would have stated that by now. This should be NAI at best, as he could have made that arbitrary vote on any slot. You're explaining a town motivation when there's just as likely scum motivation.
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Post Post #720 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:33 am

Post by insomnia »

Stop talking about dissonance and whether or not it’s AI

It’s completely personality related and just theory

Read them for something else
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Post Post #721 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:34 am

Post by insomnia »

Place them at L-1 and let them talk
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Post Post #722 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:35 am

Post by Auro »

What isn't personality related / just a theory? :P
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Post Post #723 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:36 am

Post by Auro »

Also, no. Lolhammers won't exactly go punished this game.
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Post Post #724 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:37 am

Post by insomnia »

Mindset analysis
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