Open 776: Korina is a Cultist

[RCEnigma]

I'm on page 4, farkran is town and the people that voted there should feel bad.

Anks posting is exactly how I'd tease town as a n0 recruit and I'm pretty into farks read there.

Someone said they would randomize as CL and I agree but that doesn't preclude ank from being randed. So I'm not liking that as a defense.

[RCEnigma]

Reeeeeeeeeeee I missed all the real time RVs stuff in favor of sleep q.q

[RCEnigma]

Awwww shoot Alyssa prolly town

[RCEnigma]

Slaxxx soft defending you with the randomization angle.

[RCEnigma]

Then join us on the Ank wagon

I'm good, I think VOTE: Klick is cultist. Probably.

[RCEnigma]

To be more clear i am not RVSing, i think the joke is not actually a joke.

The same thing happened in the previous cult game where blatant scum claimed CL d1

I want alyssa lynched

Will all the perks of joining my cult change your mind?

You should have known better and recruit me n0 if you wanted me in. You made the choice, i think alyssa makes sense as a n0 target.

I would have randomized it if I were the leader

Can't outguess dice

Why? As a CL your true enemy are your own guesses, and anarchist's guesses. Why wouldn't you recruit a player with a solid reputation in order to avoid him being the anarchist?

Because this exact thing would happen where people automatically push the strongest player

This. I didn't like that slax seemed to be implying if CL randed them you (Alyssa) probably wouldn't be the N0 cult.

[RCEnigma]

Wow slow down.

[RCEnigma]

So what I've gotten from RCE's reads is Alyssa is town because I'm soft defending her and therefor vote Klick?

Well, yes. But also no.

You need some RCE extrapolations to get to where I am.

[RCEnigma]

To be more clear i am not RVSing, i think the joke is not actually a joke.

The same thing happened in the previous cult game where blatant scum claimed CL d1

I want alyssa lynched

Will all the perks of joining my cult change your mind?

You should have known better and recruit me n0 if you wanted me in. You made the choice, i think alyssa makes sense as a n0 target.

I would have randomized it if I were the leader

Can't outguess dice

Why? As a CL your true enemy are your own guesses, and anarchist's guesses. Why wouldn't you recruit a player with a solid reputation in order to avoid him being the anarchist?

Because this exact thing would happen where people automatically push the strongest player

This. I didn't like that slax seemed to be implying if CL randed them you (Alyssa) probably wouldn't be the N0 cult.

That indicates cult trying to outmaneuver town by being harder to predict, not defending specific players

I agreed with the thought itself. But not the implication you were town as a result.

[RCEnigma]

I honestly have no clue how you got me implying that out of that text but I've always said you know my motivations better than I do so guess I'll take you word for it.

Well I am you, so makes sense.

[RCEnigma]

Stop posting so I can read again.

[RCEnigma]

Wait is conspire una and friend?

[RCEnigma]

To be more clear i am not RVSing, i think the joke is not actually a joke.

The same thing happened in the previous cult game where blatant scum claimed CL d1

I want alyssa lynched

Will all the perks of joining my cult change your mind?

You should have known better and recruit me n0 if you wanted me in. You made the choice, i think alyssa makes sense as a n0 target.

I would have randomized it if I were the leader

Can't outguess dice

Why? As a CL your true enemy are your own guesses, and anarchist's guesses. Why wouldn't you recruit a player with a solid reputation in order to avoid him being the anarchist?

Because this exact thing would happen where people automatically push the strongest player

This. I didn't like that slax seemed to be implying if CL randed them you (Alyssa) probably wouldn't be the N0 cult.

That indicates cult trying to outmaneuver town by being harder to predict, not defending specific players

I agreed with the thought itself. But not the implication you were town as a result.

This kind of quote replying only clogs up the thread!

Bold of you to assume I want the thread unclogged.

[RCEnigma]

People that are smarter than me. Is anarchist hunting antitown or no?

[RCEnigma]

Do you think a standard strategy is optimal?

The only constant in whatever strategy is to be charismatic enough not to be the lynch ever

This is a cool read from a cool dude.

[RCEnigma]

People that are smarter than me. Is anarchist hunting antitown or no?

My understanding is its a free for all.

Right, I was thinking not narrowing the anarchist pool in case Korina isn't randing was the best bet.

[RCEnigma]

lol really?

you culted me n0?

Hey, I just pulled up random.org, and put everyone's name into a list. You happened to be at the top of the list.

I mean, from Korina i would expect he would open random.org, puts players into a list... and doesn't push the randomize button.

But silliness aside, do you think alyssa would make that opening statement as town?

Yes. But also as cult.

[RCEnigma]

Why klick cultist?

pedit: i hate you all i can't get anything first in this game

Felt like the pop in that you had +++ cult equity was bad. Being voted doesn't make you cultist and the vote seemed like a pile on.

The way they said it makes it seem like they read the game up to that point in order to have something behind that read but the next two posts are back tracking and suggest they didn't actually read.
Like the second post is making the statement cultist is more likely to make a cult claim than town is and post 3 is backtracking to an ank scumread because of their opening post.

It seemed like they had to first establish that it's scummy behavior in order to retroactively apply it to ank, or they would have just voted ank in the first place.

[RCEnigma]

Why does cult try to form a town block right out the gate Day 1? That could have gone horribly wrong.

The townblock isn't really relevant to a cultist if they can just....recruit in that townblock.

Cult doesn't really even have to get anyone lynched. They just need to keep their fellow cultists from being the lynch. You can easily do that by defending them as a town read. That's what town would do anyway.

[RCEnigma]

Wait is conspire una and friend?

You get one guess for each of our heads. Make them count

My guess for your main: cyrus?

-Cosmic

Lol I'm honored.

[RCEnigma]

Errr, before I answer that. Klick did you just confuse farkran and ank there?

[RCEnigma]

Then it's not so scummy and I'm a bad reader too.

[RCEnigma]

Idk I have a buncha townleans in Alyssa, farkran, auro, suji. Maybe slaxxx.

[RCEnigma]

Speculating on what Korina would or wouldn't do is all wifom.

[RCEnigma]

Inb4 Suji votes auro.

[RCEnigma]

Speculating on what Korina would or wouldn't do is all wifom.

Speculating on anything in mafia is WIFOM then, no?

Sure but like, we're on limited lynches and this is more like two different roads entirely as opposed to just a fork in one.

[RCEnigma]

Hey, RCE, do you want into my cult?

Oh you know I do

[RCEnigma]

Farkran I really like you for town right now but I want the block to be like, you, Alyssa, suji, auro.

Talk me through your suji!cultist read.

Also if you take Alyssa's RVs post out and put it in a vacuum does your read there change at all?

[RCEnigma]

Farkran I really like you for town right now but I want the block to be like, you, Alyssa, suji, auro.

Talk me through your suji!cultist read.

Also if you take Alyssa's RVs post out and put it in a vacuum does your read there change at all?

Sujimichi has a relevant reputation among the new players - if you look him up, you will notice a nomination in the scummies 2020 for his scumplay. I would think he's the perfect player sorting by skill/reputation ratio, fitting a middle-of-the-road recruit of a good player that wouldn't stand out much despite never being actually lynched. He is very good at being townread as both alignments, but is not well known. In this game, i meta-townread him but it's not anything i would bet my life on - if i am wrong on my main guess, he's a good fallback option.
Aside from meta/out-of-game analysis, his introduction here was kinda shaky. He is a very logical player, but he doesn't seem to have the best understanding of this setup - once again, this is nothing scumlock worthy, just not what i would expect from a rational mind like suji's. Like, the comment about forming a town bloc, followed by "the guy who creates the town bloc has more cult equity than people inside the town bloc itself" is a bit awkward, considering all the mechanics present in this game.

WRT Alyssa, i think the slot is suffering bias from being wagoned because of that introduction, it's hard to re-evaluate without considering it. I mean, even her posts would suffer from it, not just the readers. If i had to give my honest opinion about her content, it would be that it's kinda lackluster - i'm still waiting for her reads and her explanation to said reads. As i said, it's hard to consider her without bias, but contrary to slots like klick i don't have anything strong to call her town.

I always assume players I'm unfamiliar with have strong town/scum games. I'm interested in the meta-townread if you want to expand on that.

Also I think your exchange there is mostly misunderstanding each other. I followed what suji was getting at and it was originally just a response to a question posed to them. Not them giving their thoughts on the gamestate. More like a hypothetical "if this is true, then this may also be true" scenario if that makes sense.

[RCEnigma]

namely

there's two players that are this hard-lurk type player in this game, and those players are perfect to hide a cultist in since it's harder to accurately decipher which one is cult and which one isn't later on in the game.

We're likely to use our only mislynch today based on setup anyways, so using it to also remove that particular option from Korina's options is helpful to every non-cult alignment since NOW, with only one such person in the game, it's not a guessing game if the game suddenly only makes sense if one cult is having a notably weak showing in this game.

I kinda didn't want to talk about this in detail because I wanted to see how it plays out but I guess we can force it one way or the other.

So I was thinking about how viable it would be for cult recruits to be MORE likely lynch prospects since from a town perspective they are objectively bad recruit targets and therefore less cult equity.

But that is dependent on how the game is flowing and ultimately who ends up being the day 1 Lynch.

With that in mind im confident that the n0 was not in the upper bracket players [Auro, Ank] or the lower bracket players [idk who Korina would consider here] also it feels like pandering to put myself there but for posterity it would be me and a lurker.

N0 is likely middle of the pack that aren't high priority lynches but also aren't going to lead town of their own volition.

[RCEnigma]

Oh I'd probably add chemist to the upper bracket part but I forgot he was in the game.

[RCEnigma]

Which is, scum indicative but I dunno if that is the same as cult??

[RCEnigma]

I always assume players I'm unfamiliar with have strong town/scum games. I'm interested in the meta-townread if you want to expand on that.

I played several times with suji and i read his scumgame (the game that made him a nomination). This suji looks more like the town!suji i know than the scum!suji in that other game. His attitude is more like... asking himself questions rather than giving other people answers, if you know what i mean?

The sample size is small though, and suji is not an easy read under normal circumstances.

I get what you mean, the pool to sort from fmpov is :
Farkran
Suji
Conspire
Klick
Homura
Slaxxx


Of those I'm highest on farkran/suji as town
Slaxxx right behind


Klick by virtue of just having content.

Conspire/homura

Conspire has posted but I dont know what about. Nothing has stuck so far.

[RCEnigma]

Which is, scum indicative but I dunno if that is the same as cult??

Not the same, but same enough.

Look at the language in conspires iso. Lots of “I thinks”, “probably” etc.

The only thing they seem confident on is that korina didn’t randomize, actually.

I didn't like the assumption either.

This feels a lot like a Varsoon inspired read and one that I've seen work so I wouldn't mind a conspire lynch. But homura needs posts and so does chemist before that.

[RCEnigma]

Homura do you think Alyssa is cult?

[RCEnigma]

His cultist meaning? Korina?

[RCEnigma]

Homura do you think Alyssa is cult?

[RCEnigma]

Largely diminished how exactly

A slot that's hard to differentiate doesn't suddenly become less valuable to cult when town is aware of the value within it. It's only true when there's only one such slot in the game, which there isn't.

I feel like we're on two different pages here. You said I'm hard to differentiate because I'm a lurker, which means Korina gains more value from culting me. But now that I've been wagoned and I'm in several players' lynchpools, Korina recruiting me later in the game is high risk, because I'm under scrutiny. My slot has already lost its value by engaging in this 1v1 with you.

Homura do you think Alyssa is cult?

Yes, I think she has higher cult equity and is pushing me to take the pressure off of her.

How does cult gain from clearing you as a cult target in that case?

What does Alyssa gain by pushing you against conspire who is a stronger wagon with more weight behind it?

[RCEnigma]

Auro what's your case on ank about? In 8 words or less.

[RCEnigma]

Or what you think about conspire's equity. In as many words as you want.

[RCEnigma]

One thing i am awkwardly surprised of is that nobody is trying to pre-play the cult wincon. I only have played one cult game, but the amount of anti-wincon nastiness provided was significant and i would have expected at least a partial reiteration of that. I'm still trying to determine if this is AI to someone, but i wanted to point it out nonetheless.

You play to your wincon. Not a wincon you might or might not get.

[RCEnigma]

VOTE: Klick again

[RCEnigma]

I think they have fun early game and the way we make them out themselves is if we, ourselves, the towns, don't have fun at all.

Not sure if this was a joke post but damn I like it.

In theory.

[RCEnigma]

What really strikes me is that they seem to put an emphasis on looking not dissonant despite how much they're posting separately, the second vote on me referenced the reason for the first vote for no apparent reason... despite the heads being different

It's not an entirely natural process

They let town take the lead and push on whichever wagon has more momentum.

[RCEnigma]

Maybe. I have never been in a hydra, and i didn't play with enough hydrae to discern whether they would plan harmony or dissonance as an AI measure, so i can only make logical inference that i would not - either we agree or disagree, and that would apply to scumread pushes as well as mislynch pushes/self-defensive posting.

I'll break down my argument:
1. The level of awkward dissonance (and reversal) there doesn't look planned.
2. Unplanned dissonance more likely comes from town than scum.

Do you disagree with (1), or (2)?

Disagree with 2. As evidenced by the avenger Hydra in PFUP. Which consisted of Skitter and friends. The Hydra was slightly larger but iirc Nancy was not present for a large portion and 2-3 slots were the main posters.

[RCEnigma]

It wasn't a joke, they start out by having fun early, trolling, whatnot. The way you make it stop is by raising the bar for towniness not being to constantly troll, but to actually solve.

Oh I was thinking this comes into effect more day 2-3 when alignments are shifted and you can compare patterns directly.

[RCEnigma]

I legit think Conspire has the highest odds of flipping scum here.
Homura's a decent shot too.

You/RCE/Suji/Farkran have all towntold pretty hard. Drixx and Alyssa don't feel scummy either at this point. insomnia's posts have been pretty good and I don't think Chemist flakes out of the lone scum slot.

Chemist flaked out of all his slots so I didn't feel like that read held any weight earlier and it doesn't now.

Also auro called out that he wasn't in your Poe and your answer was that insomnia had a townie post. But it came after your Poe so why would that have influenced your Poe in the first place?

[RCEnigma]

I know this isn't the only game he's flaked out of and there were like at least 2 posts in the replacement queue for his slots.

[RCEnigma]

614 was after your Poe of homura/conspire and you said you leaned conspire because they were actively scummy.

If you mean the other other last post where insomnia naked voted Homura, you said you preferred conspire immediately after. But I'll concede that it was before your Poe post.

[RCEnigma]

lol I'm sorry that was unnecessarily rude. Apparently I'm in a mood and it has nothing to do with this game.

All good, it happens. Not taking anything personal.

[RCEnigma]

Auro you feel more confident on insomnia as cult over Klick? Or is it just the wagon not getting momentum influencing your vote?

[RCEnigma]

Well he scumreads me cuz -1. So it's a start.

[RCEnigma]

With that said, I have overindulged myself in FF14 today instead of playing this game so I have no energy to play this more tonight.

But I will explain why I voted RCE.
His first post was major scum red flag, and he have done basically nothing from his 52 posts. Basically active lurking.

Expand.

[RCEnigma]

Uhh. Ok.

[RCEnigma]

What if Korina stopped posting because they thought they were spewing slots too hard?

[RCEnigma]

I went back to CoC because I remember defending Ank with meta there against shoshin and wanted to remember what my meta read was in the first place.

I feel like it still holds true here that Ank place as a gamestate manipulator. I think the fact Korina felt they had to push the game in a direction the wanted with the spam posting strongly suggest Ank isn't the cultist.

Or mostly that the cultist they recruited isn't a player that is going to warp the gamestate towards the cult agenda efficiently.

[RCEnigma]

Probably accurate yeah.

[RCEnigma]

Farkran, can you summarize my reasoning for Klick cult and then demonstrate which parts of it are "bad"?

My perception of your scumread of klick is that you don't believe he would be forming a townbloc as town, he seems to be taking things too easy and he cannot get his things straight (i.e. inconsistency around the lurkers).

I don't think those are good reasons to scumread him - i don't see a cult agenda, he should be trying to identify the anarchist and push for a town mislynch, but there isn't a trace of that in any of his posts.

A.) You would have to know wagons are on predominantly town to discern if cult is pushing for a town mislynch.
2.) Cult have a pt they can hunt anarchist in? I don't see what good it would do for that to be an in thread priority.
π.) You're assuming town won't get themselves lynched and cult has to do it. Which isn't true.

Imo inconsistency is two parts: one being fluidity of options in case they find themselves backed into a corner and two is failure to produce genuine belief in a read.

Also now that I think about it three would be prepping for the night 1 recruit to avoid having to hard switch on a read already established.

[RCEnigma]

Inb4 useless post.

[RCEnigma]

Gottem.

[RCEnigma]

Sleep = lynched lol.

Almost.

I'll read wtf happened but if anyone expects me to respond to "his posts are useless" as a case against me. Then quickhammer me whatever.

[RCEnigma]

I always assume players I'm unfamiliar with have strong town/scum games. I'm interested in the meta-townread if you want to expand on that.

I played several times with suji and i read his scumgame (the game that made him a nomination). This suji looks more like the town!suji i know than the scum!suji in that other game. His attitude is more like... asking himself questions rather than giving other people answers, if you know what i mean?

The sample size is small though, and suji is not an easy read under normal circumstances.

I get what you mean, the pool to sort from fmpov is :
Farkran
Suji
Conspire
Klick
Homura
Slaxxx


Of those I'm highest on farkran/suji as town
Slaxxx right behind


Klick by virtue of just having content.

Conspire/homura

Conspire has posted but I dont know what about. Nothing has stuck so far.

VOTE: Klick again

What are you confused about?

The posts Klick was using to clear insomnia from the Poe weren't consistent and that was just really bad reasoning. I was still voting Klick, too lazy to move the vote at the time.

So if I wasn't voting Klick at the time, I would have as of that post.

[RCEnigma]

Kind of. Like the whole sequence was
Auro: insomnia not being there doesn't make sense
Klick: I liked his last post
RCE: that was after the fact
K: no the other last post
R: that's a naked vote
K: no the other other last post

[RCEnigma]

Which looked more like backsliding to compensate where you could have just told me I like his reads or something along those lines. That make sense?

[RCEnigma]

Oh this is over.

[RCEnigma]

Also didn't realize we could post over the night phase.