Mini Normal 2119 [game over]

[Menalque]

if micc town there's a lot more value in a micc clear then a menal clear

How so?

Like either way you two will both die first which means that the clear will definitely still be alive at 5p maybe to lylo if we get a second clear

So the clear should really be whoever is best placed to solve at 5p/lylo and I don’t see why micc is better than me there necessarily

[Menalque]

Datisi you should probably call who you track if slaxx!town too, in case you die first

[Menalque]

Rb* you know what I mean

[Menalque]

i don't think it's usefull for me to claim my target prior to night or is it?

Also yes, you should definitely not be claiming target

[Menalque]

Datisi you should probably call who you track if slaxx!town too, in case you die first

Think about what you've just said

Hmm?

[Menalque]

Ohhhhhhh

[Menalque]

Right, yes

[Menalque]

Good point well made

[Menalque]

Btw my target isn't set in stone yet
Because i kinda doubt both micc and slaxx are scum together
So I'm open to hearing other opinions

Remind me why again?

But I guess bob/bji if you won’t do me

[Menalque]

has heavy doubts about my allignment

doesn't wanna engage in talk that might help solve those doubts

that don't feel good to me

yeah, but again, was the counter wagon to chem on D1

idk I think it's just lazy town who's complacent because they've basically been cleared all game

[Menalque]

also not sure that ascetic townie makes sense as a claim from scum after chem flipped ascetic

[Menalque]

Datisi, what about target Sky if Slaxx flips red? I'm going on the advice of Persivul who told me that cops should investigate lurkers so that town can focus on the actual players. Since if Slaxx flips red you are in essence a cop, fingering Sky would clear that slot and we wouldn't have to worry about any lurker lynching anymore. Just a thought.

I really have only had time to keep up with reading the thread, no time to post much, but I will have more time later today. As it is my kids are almost late for school so ... later dudez

err, no? sky is obvtown from plank's D1 play, that's a waste of an invest

should 100% be on micc/me/you/bob if slaxx flips red

[Menalque]

has heavy doubts about my allignment

doesn't wanna engage in talk that might help solve those doubts

that don't feel good to me

yeah, but again, was the counter wagon to chem on D1

idk I think it's just lazy town who's complacent because they've basically been cleared all game

i know and i don't even really mean feel bad like in scummy

like i think i've treated most slots pretty fairly this game and have been open to anyone to talk about stuff and looker just shuts down any attempts of mine to interact and help solve this game/help him sort me

feels bad man

I think you've been mostly fair but it's also hard to judge bc I do feel like you've been kinda tunnely on me

and yeah I mean that may not be helpful but I don't think scum would play like that, I think they'd be trying to look helpful not just not caring about being a dick

so he is sortable from his lack of willingness to be sorted if that makes sense

[Menalque]

I mean, blocking Sky is a possibility. But I still want to believe that UP is town, plus i do think it would be good to have Micc's slot resolved. Basically I'm hoping to have Sky contribute before EoD for now.

Also if someone lolhammers this again, you are seriously damaging my nerves

So pls don't

VOTE: slaxx

whoops

[Menalque]

lol

@bji can you try not wall posting so much or just like summarising what you think unless you're asked to go into greater depth on things

because I'm trying to read 3038 and honestly it's just like numbing my brain because there's so much text

[Menalque]

I think you've been mostly fair but it's also hard to judge bc I do feel like you've been kinda tunnely on me

ur still solidly in my PoE and you know why that is

and have you seen me tunnel? this ain't it bro

I suppose I could have said mildly tunnely instead of kinda

I know what you're like when you tunnel and that this isn't it but it still feels like I would expect you to see that I'm solving by now?

I mean yes, I do get why I'm in your PoE but it's just like you seem very hung up on the idea, especially when if slaxx flips rolestopper then I basically am cleared from N2 and I feel like you're oversubscribing to stuff like me disagreeing with you on what we should do when I don't think that's AI

[Menalque]

if slaxx flips scum then if dats is blocking micc we should lynch bob -> bji

bc I think the most obvious answer is bob as partner if it's not micc, but if bob flips town and micc is cleared then bji making a big push towards bob (knowing fhpov that micc will be cleared) is p bad because it's a way to start pre-emptively setting up for tomorrow

[Menalque]

I mean yes, I do get why I'm in your PoE but it's just like you seem very hung up on the idea,

especially when if slaxx flips rolestopper then I basically am cleared from N2

and I feel like you're oversubscribing to stuff like me disagreeing with you on what we should do when I don't think that's AI

mechanical stuff incoming
why does everyone keep saying this
when it's the exact opposite

Your relation to the scumlynch was far from good.
Then there was the strong push on pine that 'wasn't just a lurker lynch' which flipped town. On top of that, pine lynch would eliminate a ton of possibilities for you and now that you have your lynch, you have resigned what control you had over the game and are committed to sheeping datisi and me.
That doesn't add up for me.

I would have expected you to come in with solves based off of pine lynch, but haven't seen any?

---

In contrast to this, there are a good number of posts from you that I like and are townie. If anyone's interested I can dig these up. There's also Datisi's townread on you that I respect and you not having an optimal scum position wrt to chem lynch. Unless it's literally chem/menal/looker

I mean (1) if I was bussing chem I would have committed much earlier and just stuck with it
or alternatively I would have committed to faking a read somewhere else and stuck with that. like I would have had to literally played it the worst way possible if I was scum with regard to getting any cred off chem!Lynch D1 and I think I should have enough credit from my scum game for you to know that's unlikely -- which I see you acknowledging at the end, but it's like you're acknowledging it but not letting it feed into your read on me

(2) I never said it would "eliminate a ton of possibilities" I said it would let us know which universe we were in more easily -- however, massclaim did that for us instead, in that it made slaxx's claim much less believable than I thought it was on D2 and it removed Datisi as a possible busser on D1. which means that the game is simplified to (slaxx, micc, bob, bji) fmpov. slaxx, of those people, makes the most sense with micc and I don't believe his claim for much the same reasons that you don't. which I've already detailed. so I'm sheeping you because my views are aligned with you. if I thought it was totally wrong then I'd probably be dissenting, but having been ass backwards wrong in D1 and D2 I think me letting you do your thing is reasonable? if pine had flipped scum then you can bet your ass I'd be a lot more demanding of what we do, but he didn't

[Menalque]

if slaxx flips scum then if dats is blocking micc we should lynch bob -> bji

it should be easy enough for town to figure this game out if slaxx flips scum

the real terror starts if he flips town...

I doubt he flips town but agreed that this game gets

real

fucky if he does

[Menalque]

I mean yes, I do get why I'm in your PoE but it's just like you seem very hung up on the idea,

especially when if slaxx flips rolestopper then I basically am cleared from N2

and I feel like you're oversubscribing to stuff like me disagreeing with you on what we should do when I don't think that's AI

mechanical stuff incoming
why does everyone keep saying this
when it's the exact opposite

exactly this tho

slaxx flipping scum rolestopper

removes

whatever soft clear there was on menal

oh, as in he could have targeted me N2 to stop me getting roleblocked? ehhh I guess, yeah

[Menalque]

I think that's a very towny post from menalque

[Menalque]

locktownable, even

[Menalque]

I feel like this has been gone into before but I personally think micc's equity goes down not up on a slaxx!town flip, bc of the timing of slaxx's claim when the lynch was between pine and micc

claiming then led to slaxx going from being treated as plausible scum to likely town and helped him to push through the pine lynch

I think if slaxx!scum then micc's equity is noticeably higher

[Menalque]

that's not what i asked and you know it
if slaxx flips red was 673 theatre

yes, considering that he shifted off it to hard!push pine and then claimed to ensure that that was the Lynch that went through?

[Menalque]

datisi why don't you like slaxx/bob or slaxx/bji?

[Menalque]

that's not what i asked and you know it
if slaxx flips red was 673 theatre

yes, considering that he shifted off it to hard!push pine and then claimed to ensure that that was the Lynch that went through?

673 is about slaxx(wimpy)/bob not slaxx/micc

that was in response to your pedit question in 3108, I didn't mean to quote

[Menalque]

datisi why don't you like slaxx/bob or slaxx/bji?

menal you realize your earlier opinion was exactly that it probably isn't slaxx and bob?

yes, 2 game days ago that was my opinion, that is not my opinion now

[Menalque]

regarding wilky: I just lost to him (he repped out but still) here (viewtopic.php?t=82066&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go) and that's him in joint ISO with his buddy. there's a bit less aggression than there is, but they're clearly capable of interacting, and so I'm not sure if that interaction was out of his range. need to reread in context, but I think he didn't really push him that meaningfully after, and was on looker if I remember right?

so yeah, I think that wilky/bob interactions on D1 need re-evaluating with a higher level of scum!wilky in mind

[Menalque]

I don't think you can characterise that as me steering away "really hard" btw icon. in much the same way as your focus on me isn't tunnelling, you should know that's not me trying "really hard". that's me trying, sure, but not max efforting for a lynch or even that close to it

[Menalque]

If that’s why she was scum reading me, sure. But instead of her scumreading me because

“you defended a scum wagon twice”

she’s going for the angle of oh I would have to be townreading her if I was town so the fact that I’m not — despite, again, the fact that up until today I would be just on the content of her own posts — is like really over justifying her read on me and feels like it’s stretching

okay, i'm typing up a reply to other things, but

with regard to the bolded

what?

*Assuming micc flips scum

@icon

I'm assuming she means this

[Menalque]

I don't think you can characterise that as me steering away "really hard" btw icon. in much the same way as your focus on me isn't tunnelling, you should know that's not me trying "really hard". that's me trying, sure, but not max efforting for a lynch or even that close to it

my dude

i consider that i'm even downplaying what you did there

it was incredibly hard

no more time today but i will prove what i'm saying tomorrow

my dragon

it was not incredibly hard

I think maybe you haven't seen me push someone incredibly hard

[Menalque]

read this game from here, icon:

viewtopic.php?p=11432516#p11432516

[Menalque]

or this game from here:

viewtopic.php?p=11363603#p11363603

if you want one where I didn't case

[Menalque]

like my push on bob was solidly in my mid-effort push range, and I think I'm only being somewhat arrogant by saying that we can know that because of the fact that bob was not lynched

[Menalque]

Lisa’s about my role though. Was Vt.

lol what

[Menalque]

When I flip town though people need to seriously reconsider the other claims because I sense some fuckery. And don’t lynch off setup spec after me.

which other claims, exactly?

Yours and Icons.

No clue why my play is under fire here. I made the right call last night and softed both protective and rolestop yesterday during the day phase. Meanwhile, you roleblocked aaron instead of emps N1 and Icon misread his result, and somehow my existence in this game is suspect? Screw that. I don’t know why you all are giving each other the benefit of the doubt but refusing to extend that to me as well, despite my play being way more rational and consistent than either of you.

explain this then

[Menalque]

wat

[Menalque]

is this scum!slaxx pretending to believe my obvious fake hammer in order to fakeclaim a big brain play???

[Menalque]

I misread the setup as role madness lol

but like you would inherently have known the setup wasn't role madness when you got a VT pm if that were true?

[Menalque]

slaxx ur aware that this sounds immensely like horseshit yes

[Menalque]

so you saw this

I mean, blocking Sky is a possibility. But I still want to believe that UP is town, plus i do think it would be good to have Micc's slot resolved. Basically I'm hoping to have Sky contribute before EoD for now.

Also if someone lolhammers this again, you are seriously damaging my nerves

So pls don't

VOTE: slaxx

whoops

but like, not this

CFSDOIDHGLIESDGXH<SYDHFIULGBKrageLRČJHosugERHP9FS9GDHGDB<I

nice one. the VC is literally on this page.

or this?

I mean, blocking Sky is a possibility. But I still want to believe that UP is town, plus i do think it would be good to have Micc's slot resolved. Basically I'm hoping to have Sky contribute before EoD for now.

Also if someone lolhammers this again, you are seriously damaging my nerves

So pls don't

VOTE: slaxx

whoops

[Menalque]

Datisi has been killed. He was a

Town Roleblocker

.

Day Four begins. This phase will end in (expired on 2020-03-15 08:00:00)

F

[Menalque]

Okay, I think this is just PoE now tho

[Menalque]

Icon/me/sky/looker all town

2/3 in (micc, bob, bji)

[Menalque]

I think probably the key today is prob for icon to sort me because if he can get to me!town then that’s gg

[Menalque]

Although a guilty would also work

[Menalque]

Go on

[Menalque]

VLA until Sunday pls ducky

[Menalque]

next Sunday, to clarify

[Menalque]

Idk where we’re up to, I can see that math has repped in, I still think that the game is solved with icon, math(if he’s replaced sky), and looker all locktown and that means scum is exactly 2/3 of (bji, bob, micc)

[Menalque]

Math I’ve just skimmed your posts in the last couple of pages and if you’re trying to remove icon from the townbloc then you’re being counter productive

This game is very much solved if you can get to a TR on me

If not then I don’t mind if I’m lynched today because I’m not gonna be around to solve until tomorrow and don’t wanna be a viable mislynch in lylo if we miss today in that 3

[Menalque]

Icon is like the most obvtown I think I’ve ever seen him be and I’m pretty sure that any attempts to discredit him are scum motivated

Occam’s is that Ivón didn’t decide to uberbus and then make the weirdest fucking claim ever as scum and to fuck it up

I think it’s much more plausible town!icon fucks up his claim than scum!icon where he’d be a lot more careful to have his story in order

[Menalque]

Like the only person who I’m not pretty much sure is town in that 3 is looker but he’s been offbeat enough that I think he’s town. If he is scum then I think we just take the L

[Menalque]

Can this shitpush from both bob and math be scum? Can both be scum?

Do scum gain anything from going this strong against me with an extremely shitty case that's being dismantled and with counterFACTS being ignored by them.

Or do they just nightkill me instead?

I don't think this push on me is town-town

No, bc math is still town

[Menalque]

Icon is like the most obvtown I think I’ve ever seen him be and I’m pretty sure that any attempts to discredit him are scum motivated

Occam’s is that Ivón didn’t decide to uberbus and then make the weirdest fucking claim ever as scum and to fuck it up

I think it’s much more plausible town!icon fucks up his claim than scum!icon where he’d be a lot more careful to have his story in order

but his actions were awful. I just dont get them and for bit they left me scum reading him. If it were not for the fact that for him to be scum then town would be missing a town pr. The way he claimed to be tellign his results was oh so similar to scum fishign for teh last power role.

it actual reminds me bit of the time he was town tracker. His nigth actions were awful then too. I think he tracked me one of his town reads in that game over one of his scum reads. One of which made teh nigth kill that night

If he was scum, his actions could have been whatever he wanted them to be, so why wouldn’t he change them to make them more favourable to him in how he’s presented?

And like if your point is that town!icon makes terrible decisions about who to use his PR on then why do you think him doing exactly that here is scum indicative for him?

[Menalque]

Just got done doing overtime so don’t have time to read and respond to everything.

I do townread Menalque because PoE and said what my pool is.

I don’t like how they said that Occam’s is that Ico is town though

because the simplest answer is he lied. It explains everything mechanically.

If you’re townreading Ico you have some gaps in what Ico claimed unless you assume Dat roleblocked Ico which Ico seems to be going against in his own posts.

If you address the contradictions and that after multiple mislynches you all are happy with where you’re at that’s fine. “Ico deserves the win because I am lazy and don’t want to challenge my assumptions” is bad.

Call me scum doing this if you want but <mutters things he can’t say>.

But it doesn’t? Datisi claimed a rb on aff icon thought aff couldn’t have been rb’d because he saw him go to visit micc!slot but then ducky clarified that a tracker/follower would still receive the person that was targeted even if the person they targeted were rb’d? Unless I’m missing something

[Menalque]

Like I’m not following what you think the contradiction is math, and I don’t see why you think icon is scum on play?

Have you played together before?

[Menalque]

Because I’ve played with icon quite extensively and I’m pretty sure we’re about a solid mile outside of his scumrange at this point

Why does icon hardbus his buddy on D1 especially when there were multiple opportunities to shift the lynch elsewhere? He could have joined looker, could have joined me on bob

[Menalque]

Looker's claim if false would throw off town's evaluation of scum power. Just something to keep in mind as we all delve further into setup spec discussion that Slaxx did not want us to do (but I personally have no problem with).

Why would looker be fakeclaiming? Are you saying you think looker is scum?

[Menalque]

I still feel we win this if we lynch bob into one of

math

bji/micc and in this order

[Menalque]

Fixed that for you, icon

[Menalque]

VOTE: bob

[Menalque]

that’s L-1

[Menalque]

menal are you seriously scum reading for saying actual ico is just prob being idiot and not capable of the simple thing of working out that datisi was rb and he would target you. I assessed his meta after and conclude this

has no one noticed not once have i pushed for ico to even be voted. ive been clear im against as the slot is self resolving

quote got messed

I don’t really understand the first bit, I don’t think it was obvious at all that datisi would target me and idk why you would expect icon to think that?

And yeah, but I think that’s probably your lylo winning play

Lynch bji, probably kill me

Then tomorrow if icon has a guilty on you or on micc then CC and push him and math is so tunnelled he’ll probably misvote and lose the game

[Menalque]

VOTE: Guilty

His name says it all

If they were to be put in lists. Thats roughly were my reads are right now

ico, looker
bjj, sky
datisi
slaxx, menal
micc

Do you had datisi pegged as a likely PR from D1 but she was exactly nulll for you on D2?

[Menalque]

Idk why it quoted your first post in game

[Menalque]

Idk where we’re up to, I can see that math has repped in, I still think that the game is solved with icon, math(if he’s replaced sky), and looker all locktown and that means scum is exactly 2/3 of (bji, bob, micc)

MathBlade did replace Sky, but you clearly haven't even read anything Math said and don't care? Is the Sky slot that completely townfirmed for you? If so, why? It's hard to believe that it's all because of UP.

I’ve skimmed some of what math said and just think he’s wrong

Yes, math!slot is lock!town, this is not that hard for anyone who’s been paying attention all game

I can’t really go into it a lot, but what I can say is that I still think UP’s behaviour while toxic was also very +town for him in terms of the specific ways he got frustrated about little things

[Menalque]

And I don’t think there’s anything wrong with locking a slot in as town D1 when there are things that make it incredibly evident that slot is town, even if it’s lacklustre later on

[Menalque]

VOTE: Guilty

His name says it all

If they were to be put in lists. Thats roughly were my reads are right now

ico, looker
bjj, sky
datisi
slaxx, menal
micc

Do you had datisi pegged as a likely PR from D1 but she was exactly nulll for you on D2?

stand thing i do when not wanting a slot to be touched as town. stick it in null and don't give him away.

Got any examples of you doing this in completed games?

[Menalque]

Also if you had datisi down as a likely town PR why didn’t you spend more time trying to work with her when she was around

[Menalque]

Like the only person who I’m not pretty much sure is town in that 3 is looker but he’s been offbeat enough that I think he’s town. If he is scum then I think we just take the L

Why are you so willing to lose the game rather than be faced with having to catch scum!Looker?

I mean I’m not, but I’m saying that I think the game is more likely to be lost paranoiaing over whether scum!looker is possible than it is from just saying lynch exclusively in those 3 slots

[Menalque]

We agree on bob.

We should lynch there and whoever is alive tomorrow needs to work from there.

Both micc and math would make sense.

If math (sky slot) is scum, that would make a ton of sense wrt to Micc's play

.

Break this down for me icon

I mean, math is town but what were you thinking here

[Menalque]

those 2 quotes prove day 2 any one should have know that datisi was a rb that targeted aaron

Those two quotes prove nothing except that you are capable of reading back with hindsight and evaluating posts that you could not see in real time.

If they were to be put in lists. Thats roughly were my reads are right now

ico, looker
bjj, sky
datisi
slaxx, menal
micc

So if you were so sure Datisi was rb because of these crumbs then why did you have a null read on him?

Got a vib that he was pr all the way back in day one and by day 2 it was clear he was town.

If it was clear Datisi was town I think you would have actually read him as town don't you think?

I’m actually feeling slightly mindmeldy with bji here

So bob/micc ?

[Menalque]

Icon/Menalque: Help me get over my town read on bob for refocusing the chemist lynch when it almost broke apart. This is my only reservation against lynching bob and I’ve been asking about it this whole day phase but y’all keep skipping over it.

What do you think happens there in terms of game if scum!bob votes looker up to L-1 and looker flips town?

[Menalque]

Because I’m pretty sure the answer is that chem gets lynched on D2 and then bob looks absolutely fucking awful for having been the last person to push the vote away from him onto town

As opposed to doing what he did which is to vote a pretty doomed slot and fly heavily off the credit of that to the endgame

[Menalque]

I just drove over a thousand kilometres in the last 16 or so hours and haven’t slept more than 15 minutes in the last ~27 and I’m being held at the ferry port because the french government hasn’t confirmed yet that it will let brits go home

I’m actually doing surprisingly well considering all of that but haven’t really got time to play the game yet and prob won’t until tomorrow

[Menalque]

fuckin right

[Menalque]

gut instinct is that icon/math seems like bait

[Menalque]

it is tbh mildly alarming that icon isn't dead as I was kind of counting on that happening, but I think the more logical explanation is bji/micc

[Menalque]

I still can't believe that Ico would or could fake Its claimed role and alignment given Its posts this game. So unless something really groundbreaking happens, Ico is in my Will Not Vote pile.

what do you think of bji posting this icon?

[Menalque]

vote count 1.21

Chemist1422 (7)

: Iconeum,

GuiltyLion

, bji,

bob3141

, Menalque,

Datisi, Looker

Looker (4)

:

Chemist1422

,

wilky

, Micc,

AaronFrost[/color ppl p

not voting:

Pine

, MathBlade

with 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

This phase ends in (expired on 2020-02-19 08:00:00)

mod notes: quack

Please please if you’re town look at this.

Ico+Micc or Bji +Micc looks really really likely.

not icon+bji?

I think icon+bji could be a thing in a world where icon is scum but I think the more likely thing is that it's exactly bji+micc and that icon being left alive is a move to win now bc they know you were tunnelling him yesterday

[Menalque]

but then again micc is pushing against the icon lynch?

how good is bji as scum in your estimation math?

[Menalque]

I think that gamestate says chem is likely town but I also think looker is likely town (assuming I’m right on bob!scum) because I think them both being on wilky is a weird option for both scum to choose and while it’s kind of big brain to double down on a townie like that I’m not sure either of them plays like that

Icon and GL are both competent, especially GL who’s on a hot streak recently, so as I don’t have the time to put the case for scum!bob as strongly as I’d like I’m willing to compromise on chem

This imho kinda locks Menal as town for me.
Someone correct me if I am wrong.

can you just run through what you thought was so town!indicative for me about this post?

[Menalque]

In regards to Ico it could quite be possible Ico got a result and would be set up.
Dat blocks Ico is still a possible world.

Depending upon what Ico did and didn’t do and did and didn’t submit/get we get a look into his mentality town/scum.

It’s about the results and what he did/tried/is lying about and why.

dats claimed her shots, she didn't block ico

[Menalque]

I don't really get the whole vote discussion thing that bji is on about and that math is talking about in 3640

unless there's a huge mechanical advantage for this, that can be clearly explained and understood then focusing on mechanics here is not helpful at all. like all mechanics does is be boring and/or take the focus away from actual scum hunting, like how people are positioning and whether their stances throughout the game have been helpful to town or to scum

[Menalque]

In regards to Ico it could quite be possible Ico got a result and would be set up.
Dat blocks Ico is still a possible world.

Depending upon what Ico did and didn’t do and did and didn’t submit/get we get a look into his mentality town/scum.

It’s about the results and what he did/tried/is lying about and why.

dats claimed her shots, she didn't block ico

He claimed all but his last one.

Pronoun field for Dat is he please respect that.

His last post is paraphrased as “Red block Micc. Green it’s up in the air.”

I have explicit permission to use "she" for Datisi

also, right, I'm with you now

[Menalque]

Spoiler:

I don't really get the whole vote discussion thing that bji is on about and that math is talking about in 3640

unless there's a huge mechanical advantage for this, that can be clearly explained and understood then focusing on mechanics here is not helpful at all. like all mechanics does is be boring and/or take the focus away from actual scum hunting, like how people are positioning and whether their stances throughout the game have been helpful to town or to scum

There is much more of an advantage in games with a 2 week + cycle.

The idea is that the most townread person should be in charge of voting (me you or Ico) to prevent a scum hammer situation.

Eventually three people will consolidate and fake vote.

Then you get a general sense of if the fake hammered person is town or scum by their reaction and vote

And the game narrows to fake hammer victim + person real voted.

If the fake hammer victim is scum then they have a narrowed pool in which at least one scum has to be in.

Then the first real vote carries the least amount of risk.

okay, but I don't see how a fakehammer that's known to be a fakehammer is going to get reactions really?

I don't hate the idea of you or me or icon being in charge of hammering / casting the first vote

but yeah I don't really get what the advantage is supposed to be to this

[Menalque]

You’re more looking for a player saying scum exist in (not entire player list)
For a rule of three inference.

hmm that's interesting. Why does that distinction matter?

If I'm being compelled to fake vote next in this very moment I would also be on bji, but given more time I'd prioritize spending it interacting with menalque. Locking him in as the consensus town read and then allowing him to direct conversation is a reasonable path forward. I only have slight reservation about menalque and it comes from Looker getting nightkilled while voting menalque.

micc, would your team be rn?

I think I'm also leaning bji but it's worrying me as well that he increasingly looks like the consensus lynch for today, and idk if that means bussing or if that means that he's been brought to be exactly the mislynch

as far as looker goes my first thought was that it was strange and slightly condemnatory for icon, but it has the flip side of being a kill that looks really bad on bji and maybe partly on me too

[Menalque]

You’re more looking for a player saying scum exist in (not entire player list)
For a rule of three inference.

hmm that's interesting. Why does that distinction matter?

If I'm being compelled to fake vote next in this very moment I would also be on bji, but given more time I'd prioritize spending it interacting with menalque. Locking him in as the consensus town read and then allowing him to direct conversation is a reasonable path forward. I only have slight reservation about menalque and it comes from Looker getting nightkilled while voting menalque.

Fake votes also happen whenever you want them to.

It’s much less likely Looker was nightkilled because of reads. VC wise looker had no votes from D2+ I think?. No one else scumread Looker. His case was going nowhere and people just don’t listen to dead people much as we wish we might. Looker was a universal townread. Probably killed to see if I push Ico. That’s much hunch and most likely is you and bji.

idk, I'm not totally sure about this, but again, I'm willing to defer to you on bji. is he a panicky player as scum? do you think he would kill someone who was tunnelling him or do you think this could be a frame up job?

I think it's worth considering the angle of reads as well, because I think that there's a reason why I wasn't NK'd and looker was, given that I think we were falling into similar consensus TR positions by the end of yesterday

[Menalque]

Look, I hate to use Real World Events as some kind of excuse, but, there is a lot going on right now and I don't have time at the moment for a detailed deep dive back into the game, which is what I intend to do. So please be patient. I will get there, but we do have 7 days for this.

My conception of how fake voting would go is, the rules are you always post your fake vote something like "

Evot: bji

", and afterwards be sure to include the current vote count so that it's easy for everyone to keep track of. And then when/if a plurality is reached on a wagon, then the players on that wagon are required to place their votes in the same order for real. The only exception being, the last vote is not allowed to be a quickhammer, i.e. within say 4 hours of the L-1 vote. If anyone votes in a 'quickhammer' fashion then that person is automatically the lynch for the day. If anyone refuses to vote their fake votes once a plurality is reached, that person is the automatic lynch for the day.

In this way we can use voting for discovery but don't have to worry about quickhammer. But everyone has to obey these rules or it doesn't work.

I mean we have 5 days and realistically we have half of that because we're not leaving this until deadline. so how is the deep dive going because it either needs to happen imminently, or we need to play around you not doing it. bji, what do you make of the overall gamestate right now?

[Menalque]

Spoiler:

I don't really get the whole vote discussion thing that bji is on about and that math is talking about in 3640

unless there's a huge mechanical advantage for this, that can be clearly explained and understood then focusing on mechanics here is not helpful at all. like all mechanics does is be boring and/or take the focus away from actual scum hunting, like how people are positioning and whether their stances throughout the game have been helpful to town or to scum

There is much more of an advantage in games with a 2 week + cycle.

The idea is that the most townread person should be in charge of voting (me you or Ico) to prevent a scum hammer situation.

Eventually three people will consolidate and fake vote.

Then you get a general sense of if the fake hammered person is town or scum by their reaction and vote

And the game narrows to fake hammer victim + person real voted.

If the fake hammer victim is scum then they have a narrowed pool in which at least one scum has to be in.

Then the first real vote carries the least amount of risk.

okay, but I don't see how a fakehammer that's known to be a fakehammer is going to get reactions really?

I don't hate the idea of you or me or icon being in charge of hammering / casting the first vote

but yeah I don't really get what the advantage is supposed to be to this

It’s not for reactions. It’s so probable scum have to vote first or be outed.

I don't mind doing it but I don't totally understand it. If you feel strongly that's fine, but like I said you're probably gonna have to talk me through it again when the time comes

[Menalque]

I really think it probably is bji too actually

the fact that he's been here but seems to be mostly focusing on a discussion of mechanics -- even if they are useful -- as opposed to trying to find scum which is what I'd expect to be his focus is v +scum I think

[Menalque]

alright, so if it is just bji then the partner is icon or micc

icon and micc can you both give your solve of the game when you see this?

[Menalque]

Your time is supposedly limited bji. If it is then figure out the gamestate. All of town have to agree.

big +1 on this

[Menalque]

hey look i'm alive

much fun

Hey look got results?

same type of a negative result i had prev day, on micc

why did you follow micc, icon?

[Menalque]

like given there were 2 scum left and micc was probably the most suspect, it seems like this would be the time to go for a paranoia check on me or math if you had any doubts at all, because scum!either of us was pretty much a lock to be performing the kill fypov?

[Menalque]

You’re more looking for a player saying scum exist in (not entire player list)
For a rule of three inference.

hmm that's interesting. Why does that distinction matter?

If I'm being compelled to fake vote next in this very moment I would also be on bji, but given more time I'd prioritize spending it interacting with menalque. Locking him in as the consensus town read and then allowing him to direct conversation is a reasonable path forward. I only have slight reservation about menalque and it comes from Looker getting nightkilled while voting menalque.

micc, would your team be rn?

I think I'm also leaning bji but it's worrying me as well that he increasingly looks like the consensus lynch for today, and idk if that means bussing or if that means that he's been brought to be exactly the mislynch

as far as looker goes my first thought was that it was strange and slightly condemnatory for icon, but it has the flip side of being a kill that looks really bad on bji and maybe partly on me too

I haven't taken the time to sit and think deeply about a team solve. Right now I have reasons to believe you, icon and math are town for one reason or another. bji is really still a POE vote for me right now. given how well that strategy has worked along with the concensus moving toward him today, i do have some reservations. Not feeling good about voting based on a POE pool that is smaller than the scum remaining.

then again, i'm in a place where i'm not sure ill feel great about anythign no matter how much work i put in and that's been discouraging.

hopign to go pretty deep on bji iso dive tonight and take a close look at his scum game that was linked. if the case is strong enough for him being scum then i'm voting there and figuring the rest out at 3p lylo.

could you try to towncase each of us?

also, would you say that your other votes were mostly PoE then?

[Menalque]

Idk where we’re up to, I can see that math has repped in, I still think that the game is solved with icon, math(if he’s replaced sky), and looker all locktown and that means scum is exactly 2/3 of (bji, bob, micc)

MathBlade did replace Sky, but you clearly haven't even read anything Math said and don't care? Is the Sky slot that completely townfirmed for you? If so, why? It's hard to believe that it's all because of UP.

I’ve skimmed some of what math said and just think he’s wrong

Yes, math!slot is lock!town, this is not that hard for anyone who’s been paying attention all game

I can’t really go into it a lot, but what I can say is that I still think UP’s behaviour while toxic was also very +town for him in terms of the specific ways he got frustrated about little things

Any chance you can go deep on your lock town read for math’s slot?

I can't, really

what I can say is that if you were closely reading the game on D1 and everything that happened there then I think it's very obvious that math!slot is town, almost regardless of what you think of his play

if you are looking for play based reasons, then I think looking at UP and especially at UP's shitfight with me on D1, I think that was all very +town for the slot alone. I think it's a bold play for scum to come in, isolate themselves by insulting half the playerlist and refusing to explain anything when asked, but while I can see that happening with some scum players the bigger thing for me was him being pedantic about some of the little things during that argument. like, him being an asshole on the little things made me feel sure that he was town because there was no need for scum!him to fake being an asshole around those things or to act as irritated as he was

it makes much more sense to me that there was a genuine frustration from him there, and I don't see why scum would have been that bothered about it, especially not to force a massive confrontation with me on D1 basically just because

[Menalque]

I had a thought about bji + menalque and now I can't get it out of my head.

go on

[Menalque]

Fake vote count is
Bji (2) - Me, Micc

If anyone fake hammers Bji then he has 24 hours to real vote or scum claim.

I am exhibiting symptoms of Corona so I might have to real vote if I get hospitalized. But right now I am mild.

stay safe, math

I may fakehammer this but I want to think a little more on if bji is the set mislynch here or if he is just scum

[Menalque]

math, do you think scum is playing for 5p lylo or 3p lylo?

[Menalque]

I am exhibiting symptoms of Corona so I might have to real vote if I get hospitalized. But right now I am mild.

wishing you the best. stay safe.

could you try to towncase each of us?

also, would you say that your other votes were mostly PoE then?

the tldr is that you have a lot of posts that come from a mindset that I think would be difficult to fake as scum, there are some unique lines of analysis that go deep enough to feel like true solving and not scum pushing fake reads. For Icon I always come back to the aggressive claim day 2 as something that goes against everything that makes sense for him to be doing as scum. For math slot I see the frustration expressed by UT to be town too but I think I'm less sure than the general consensus coming from not having experienced it in real time. I think math's approach to solving has been genuine whereas there's a world where he can very easily win as scum by lynching me that's he's not taking - at least directly. Bji has some posts similar to menalque that I think show strong town mindset, but not nearly as many. I was able to pick out similar posts in the scum game of his that was linked, so feeling like these aren't the strongest things to be using to case bji as town.

I can pull quotes and give a more detailed case of any of those if you'll find it helpful. it will just have to come between checking in on work responsibilities over the next couple hours

I had a thought about bji + menalque and now I can't get it out of my head.

go on

this scum team justifies me not being lynched by day 5 better than any other. rereading days 2 and 3 in the context of you and bji setting up a micc + menalque + X lylo fit together way better than I expected.

I mean, yeah, I'd kinda like you to actually break down in detail each of those three reads -- bji too once you've done his deep ISO bc I still think the most likely thing here is a bji + micc team so in a world where you are town then we're losing unless you can spew yourself town here very hard

specifically, I'd like you to highlight for math and I the points that you thought looked like real solving or going beyond what scum would do and showing a town mindset. Ideally, I'd like you to explain your process of coming to those reads/how they evolved over the last several days as best you can

I'd like you to run through icon's day 2 claim and explain why you don't think that makes sense for him as scum

and I'd like the case on bji -- both the things you thought were townie and the things that have sold you on scum him

[Menalque]

OK I've done as much re-reading as I have time for.

Ico is town, I've already stated why I think this is true.

emps/Micc are town. emps play was null and Micc had plenty of opportunity to push Ico heavily but his resistance to that felt very genuine to me on re-read. Since I town read Ico and believe Ico's claim I think scum Micc would be more likely to try to get more effective doubt casting of Ico out of Ico's claim snafus.

Menalque is scum. Must have gotten lucky on missing being roleblocked and investigated. Also post 1121 is really bad on re-read. He is trying to maneuver the wagon away from Chem. Claims to want to lynch bob or Looker, but play after this completely ignores bob until I started a wagon on bob and then Menalque was happy to pile on. And 1211 makes no sense, seems like with Menalque's attitude he should just stay off of the chem wagon. Also why did he change in just a few posts from "chemist is likely town" to scum reading chemist in 1563? He consistently town read me in the early game but then slowly started scum reading me without providing reasons and now in 5p LYLO I am his top scum read.

Math is scum. I don't like how he pushed for Ico lynch yesterday and without any change in Ico status (and Ico being alive should make Math

more

suspicious, not less) is now town reading Ico. In fact Math appears to be willing to town read anyone who seems willing to vote me. Math keeps referencing quotes from other players that make me look worse (for example post 3673). Also Math pretending to need time to re-read the game to decide which of bob or I to hammer seemed fake because Math was really only scum reading me all day. Math didn't even interact with bob at all but made a point to keep up interaction with me. That smells of setting up a mislynch. And also Math is trying to use our previous game history as a reason to scum read me here when my play in our previous games when I was scum was

nothing

like my play in this game, so at worst my history should be NAI for Math, not evidence for scum!bji.

I think the UP/Menalque drama can be explained by the argument starting or intensifying in scum private thread. UP replaced out rather than continue to play with a partner that he couldn't get along with.

I think Menalque and Math have both worked to set me up as the winning mislynch today.

In terms of which I'd lynch first, I think Menalque is the better choice. His maneuvering me to the top of his scum reads was not as obvious to me as it slowly built during the game but on re-read it's clearer. The setting up of my mislynch is almost blatant.

Fake vote: Menalque

okay, why are you still so set on town!icon? why are you not at least reconsidering there given that we're in lylo and being wrong is ggs all round?

I don't really believe your take on micc!slot. What you're saying now seems radically different to the line that you've pushed on previous days, particularly wrt to emps who I think you explained at length why he was scummy. why has your opinion changed there? like I'd get it if you'd said "emps was scummy but not so much that I don't think general gamestate/his play overrides it, so despite that I think he's still town overall".

what do you think of math's points in 3704 about my D1 play? I think you're misrepresenting my D1 position too. I was very clear that despite having scumleaned looker early on D1, I didn't wanna lynch him by the end. I was very clear that I thought that he and chem were town and that bob was scum. why should I stay off the chem wagon when we needed a lynch? like what would the benefit to town have been if I'd stayed off and we'd no lynched, especially as bob wasn't gaining any traction there. and like you're trying to make out that me reevaluating is scummy when actually being here not reevaluating is much more scum indicative. my shifts in focus were due to new information -- I thought that chem would flip town, so him flipping scum meant re-examining D1 wagon compositions. I still do think that lynch was hard to get, but I am now wondering if it was double-bussed on D1 and that the entire scum strat was to get enough credit from it to get to endgame via lynching off wagon, including with an eventual game winning mislynch on micc. my TR on your was also dependent on the theory that (1) scum both avoided the wagon D1 -- which is confirmed as wrong now and (2) that there were other people more likely than you to have been bussing, also proved wrong via bob!town and dats!town. so why is it suspicious that my read on you has shifted at this point?

math is clearly town, idk how many times to say this, but again, if you closely read back through D1 it is

incredibly

obvious that the slot is town.

[Menalque]

tbf the main thing that bothers me about bji at this point is that it seems like a really fucking weird angle to go for to push me there in the case that he's scum. I think I'm basically the only one who's had some reservations about him being the lynch today, and him going balls to the wall on me being scum is odd, seeing as in a case where I am scum and he votes me, it's surely gg fhpov as I can't imagine him really thinking that I'm lynched over him

[Menalque]

I also don't like the shift on micc if he's scum, because that's almost aggressively poor positioning on him as a partner -- changing the narrative he has there and putting him very artificially in town, and again doesn't really make sense if scum is going for a 3p win and if bji is scum

@math do you think that scum!bji has that level of complexity to his scum game?

or maybe it's just WIFOM to try and get some paranoia going

[Menalque]

I still can't believe that Ico would or could fake Its claimed role and alignment given Its posts this game. So unless something really groundbreaking happens, Ico is in my Will Not Vote pile.

what do you think of bji posting this icon?

it's consistent with his previous day, and if i'm the designed mislynch i don't see how bji is scum here?

unless all it takes is someone like math (based on his attack on me prev day) to vote me and they pile up on me

like given there were 2 scum left and micc was probably the most suspect, it seems like this would be the time to go for a paranoia check on me or math if you had any doubts at all, because scum!either of us was pretty much a lock to be performing the kill fypov?

i've already checked you before, and datisi blocked you before
if there's scum, i expect them to double play this, IE use there more scummy player to perform action(s) and let their deepwolf stay safe

Fake vote count is
Bji (2) - Me, Micc

If anyone fake hammers Bji then he has 24 hours to real vote or scum claim.

I am exhibiting symptoms of Corona so I might have to real vote if I get hospitalized. But right now I am mild.

consider my vote on bji

(1) okay but that would make it exactly micc + math and I don't think that's a possible team

(2) so are you saying that you think it is micc + math/me in that case? based on the double play idea. or you think it's exactly micc + bji and you got unlucky with the check?

[Menalque]

I don't really believe your take on micc!slot. What you're saying now seems radically different to the line that you've pushed on previous days, particularly wrt to emps who I think you explained at length why he was scummy.

That is false. The worst I town read emps is as my "least confident read/most scummy player" on D1 and I changed my mind quickly after Micc came in. Even tussled with Ico a little bit over that.

But you could quote a post of mine supporting your statement here if you actually had evidence.

I am clearly the least experienced and least skilled player left in this game, and I think I can see now why am I alive.

With regards to Ico, I only have so much time for re-reading this game, and I already spent a largely disproportionate amount of my previous time thinking about and studying Ico's posts. Ico fake claiming at the spot that It did with the results and interactions that this produced would be so far beyond any thing I have ever seen scum do in any game I have ever been in. I read Math's case against Ico closely yesterday and it was a more coherent case than I could ever come up with myself and it

still

did not convince me.

PoE leaves you and MathBlade and it's not hard for me to see what you guys are doing now that I've recognized your team.

The thing with Eddie Cane convinced me that Math's slot could not be scum for a long while but there must be a reason that the slot is still alive instead of modkilled, and with Math now in my PoE I'm willing to abandon that line of reasoning. We're not allowed to talk about it so I can't even hear thoughts about it beyond what I can think up myself.

@Ico: can you please look at emps/Micc's voting record and give me your thoughts? Do you think there is anything meaningful in the fact that the slot never made any vote of consequence until the hammer of bob yesterday?

I will try to go back and find this, but I could be misremembering tbf

so you think math's case was very coherent, why are you clearing micc then? why is a possible team for you not something like me + micc, especially given that I helped steer the lynch away from him on D2?

I don't really understand what's going on with your micc read at all or how you're going for PoE to try and get a solve rather than actually giving your reads here given that it's lylo, or talking about who you think is scum rather than just what you think is town

[Menalque]

I also don't like the shift on micc if he's scum, because that's almost aggressively poor positioning on him as a partner -- changing the narrative he has there and putting him very artificially in town, and again doesn't really make sense if scum is going for a 3p win and if bji is scum

@math do you think that scum!bji has that level of complexity to his scum game?

or maybe it's just WIFOM to try and get some paranoia going

I think anyone could still be bji’s partner.

What’s scary is that he picked you despite that having no possible road to three fake votes at the time of his post.

Yeah I think bji flips red but then gotta analyze after the flip who with.

I don't really understand what you're saying here math

[Menalque]

VOTE: bji

[Menalque]

I mean I’m not really surprised

I guess there’s still like a chance of icon/micc but ehh

[Menalque]

I mean I’m trying to move away from cases because I’m not sure they’re actually very helpful to town

I think bji should be pretty obvious scum to everyone

If you’re asking me to go through his iso and look for some stuff that pings me as the most obvious indications of him being scum, okay, I will if you really can’t see him as scum without that

[Menalque]

But it’s happening tomorrow bc rn I’m just checking in on my games and then having a cup of tea and sleeping

[Menalque]

I am thinking right now it’s all wine.

Yeah, that’s a big +1

But equally o don’t think it’s unhelpful as it puts scum in a position of trying to figure out the wine rather than it being only town having to do that

[Menalque]

Current gmestate just smell like menal and micc scum

Feels to me increasingly like micc + bji scum with micc trying to move me into a place where he can justify voting me tomorrow after calling me locktown yeserday

[Menalque]

But if it’s not you then yeah it’s still exactly bji + micc

[Menalque]

Icon if you vote for me over bji here I am never gonna let you hear the end of it

[Menalque]

yo sorry, I thought I was gonna have more time to have a look at bji

[Menalque]

it's moot now I guess

gl for tomorrow

[Menalque]

@math I think I'd rather lose to icon!scum here than micc!scum but idk

micc felt scummier today to me than icon on balance, I really didn't like micc's "reconsidering" leaving him unable to find anything to put me as town and him starting to push the bji + mena angle

[Menalque]

Ugh

[Menalque]

I don’t wanna make this choice

[Menalque]

Why?

If it’s you then icon probably doesn’t have a result

If it’s icon then he probably claims no result

[Menalque]

the mod has been giving you a distinction between whether you've been blocked or have no result? @icon

[Menalque]

hang on I'm just catching up on overnight

[Menalque]

To be clear, the result you’re claiming is the equivalent of a No Result and not a Didn’t Visit, right? And you’ve verified with the moderator that you would see those things differently?

I've not verified that specifically, but I will. I'm actually assuming that I either get a result like in the first couple days, or one like i'm getting the last couple days.

I mean this seems like the sort of thing you really should have verified earlier on, why didn't you?

oh boy that math kill is kinda incriminating to me don't you think, micc?

ahhh I don't like this icon

like you pointing it out preemptively when it actually

is

kinda incriminating for you

[Menalque]

I don’t understand how you can have a lack of understanding about how your results work at this stage. Or why you seem willing to vote despite that lack of understanding.

If you think there’s a world where you and I are Town you need to refute the mechanics I posted about.

How can I know what types or kinds of possible results I will get? This isn't a game where I get a list in advance that says:

'if you are roleblocked, you get type A result'
'if you are not interfered with, you get type B result'
etc

I'll check with the mod to be sure tho

I think there's a possibility we are the town here, but it's a longshot.

Try to make sense of what I failquoted, because that's literally the only track where the 2 of us win together

I mean in my normal review for the game I ran there was very specific feedback from the NRG that the results that players got should not give them an indication as to whether they didn't get a result due to being blocked somehow or due to not getting a result so I'm confused

are you saying that the mod has been giving you two different results?

[Menalque]

start spewing guys because otherwise i have a clear on micc

i wasn't blocked
micc isn't ascetic (as per wiki: would receive a no result - which isn't the case)
scum ninja isn't under normal guidelines, only for a serial killer)

what else is possible?

bc this implies that you would have been receiving different PMs and I think that's explicitly non-normal

[Menalque]

aka can't have actually happened

[Menalque]

You said it yourself, this is very likely WAAAAY out of my scum range.
Menal said something about this as well.

I demand this day go down in a duel between micc and menal, and that I can

icon this is gross, we're in lylo and one of the main people SRing you died last night

not sure if it's WIFOM setting you up or if it's you trying to eliminate a major threat and thinking I'm more likely to vote micc than math was but either way you absolutely don't get to take yourself out of the pool

[Menalque]

it's clear now that i would have gotten a different kind of result if i was blocked

you asked ducky?

[Menalque]

ducky, would a player with an investigative role receive two different results depending on whether they were blocked or whether they received a negative result?

[Menalque]

if that's true then ducky shouldn't have a problem confirming it in main thread too

but I'm finding this really hard to believe based on what was said in my NRG review

[Menalque]

as in: a fairly big deal was made over making sure that it would be ambiguous if there was a RB or just a lack of action for an investigative

[Menalque]

@menal, i don't see what's scummy about any of this? are you scared of getting stuck with a PoE guilty?

If i'm scum, i'm not playing these kind of shenanigans and you know it. I'd double down on micc without hesitation and it would probably work. You know this.

it's scummy bc from my understanding of normals what you're saying is literally impossible according to NRG standards which makes me think you're setting up to get micc to vote me, also combined with your "micc, you need to really go further on your meta + bji ideas" stuff the last page at the same time as being on micc!scum according to your results

idk if you would double down actually, bc I think you know I get iffy about shit like this in lylos and I think you'd play it more carefully there

plus if you!scum then micc was more likely to vote me than math and math was more likely to vote you than micc so this lylo is, while probably not optimal, also the best for scum!you I think

[Menalque]

if that's true then ducky shouldn't have a problem confirming it in main thread too

but I'm finding this really hard to believe based on what was said in my NRG review

before the mod answers this in game: what would you make of either answer?

if mod says there is no distinction then you're just straight lying and I'm almost certainly voting you

if mod confirms that there would be a distinction then I'm not sure

would think about if there's a way for micc to be scum but I think I'm leaning you!scum there too tbh, given how you seem to be playing this so far and trying paint a mech!clear on micc which leads to a logical scum!me for you

[Menalque]

also what happened to me being miles outside my scumrange and your other townreads on me?

i don't see anything here that could or should change that

I mean the fact that you're apparently a strong investigative who's made it through what: 2 nightphases? 3? without dying is making me doubt my earlier read. like I partly thought you'd self-resolve by now, although if micc is some sort of blocking role then I guess he could have brought you as the designated mislynch instead of him

[Menalque]

thus i need to consider the possible fact that i have a clear on micc - which means menal is town

errr

[Menalque]

would think about if there's a way for micc to be scum but I think I'm leaning you!scum there too tbh, given how you seem to be playing this so far and trying paint a mech!clear on micc which leads to a logical scum!me for you

well yeah, if micc is mech scum you don't really have a lot of options to scumread i get that lol

that's why i need to know about what roles *could* be in game outside of roleblocker and ascetic that could interfere with me and still let me have a result

I mean I'm gonna have a look but after the duck or Ali confirms the result situation

[Menalque]

oh wait, I fucked up, I was remembering the point explicitly having been made but it was the other way around

[Menalque]

as in: it was stressed that there *should* be a distinction between a "action successful -- nothing happened" and "no result"

[Menalque]

is a scum with the ninja modifier considered normal?

[Menalque]

Failing to distinguish between having the investigation fail and getting a “went no where” result is explicitly not normal.

If i reverse engineer this, then:

-Distinguishing between an investigative fail and a 'went nowhere' is explicitely normal

right?

because that's what i'm saying here

Yes, that is my understanding of normal guidelines. Menalque being told differently in a review is crazy. I’d like a link to that review if possible.

see the post before this one

[Menalque]

nah it's okay

so either icon is lying or micc is a ninja

[Menalque]

doesn't rolestop only stop actions from affecting you? not stop you from acting yourself?

[Menalque]

well yeah but if you're not lying then the breakdown of roles is like

rolestopper
roleblocker
ascetic townie
follower/tracker
informed cop

vs

informed doctor activated ascetic
informed encryptor
???

[Menalque]

doesn't rolestop only stop actions from affecting you? not stop you from acting yourself?

That is my understanding. Why do you ask?

weren't you saying that the N2 kill was clearing for you?

[Menalque]

Ninja Micc doesn’t beat N2 rolestop from slaxx.

?

[Menalque]

well yeah but if you're not lying then the breakdown of roles is like

rolestopper
roleblocker
ascetic townie
follower/tracker
informed cop

vs

informed doctor activated ascetic
informed encryptor
???

whereas if you are lying then it's

rolestopper
roleblocker
ascetic townie
informed cop

vs

informed doctor activated ascetic
informed encryptor
???

[Menalque]

well yeah but if you're not lying then the breakdown of roles is like

rolestopper
roleblocker
ascetic townie
follower/tracker
informed cop

vs

informed doctor activated ascetic
informed encryptor
???

this information was available on the prev day as well, when you were basicly locktowning me. i don't see why that changes anything now, especially with the '...' possibly being ninja to neuter my role

I mean (1) I wasn't as sure on you yesterday and (2) bji hadn't flipped as negative utility at that point

[Menalque]

Slaxx used a rolestop on Aaron. I believe that means a factional nightkill on Aaron should have been stopped. Me (or you) being a ninja would not be able to kill through the rolestop. Would need to be strongman + ninja or equivalent

oh right, I forgot who the rolestop was on

can we get a full night action list for everyone

[Menalque]

so Datisi targeted Aaron N1
then targeted me N2
then ded

Aaron targeted micc N1

slaxx targeted no-one N1
targeted Aaron N2
then ded

icon targeted Aaron N1
then who N2?
me N3
micc N4
micc N5

is that all correct?

[Menalque]

icon who did you say was your N2 target and are the rest correct?

[Menalque]

oh, N2 he claimed a dats track right

[Menalque]

so Datisi targeted Aaron N1
then targeted me N2
then ded

Aaron targeted micc N1

slaxx targeted no-one N1
targeted Aaron N2
then ded

icon targeted Aaron N1
dats N2
me N3
micc N4
micc N5

is that all correct?

[Menalque]

I mean you could be a rolecop who targeted dats N1

[Menalque]

so what do we have:

i knew datisi was roleblocker and whom she (or is it he nowadays?) targeted on night 2
menal was roleblocked on n2
something got thru the rolestop from slaxx onto aaron, who got killed

that literally leaves micc as scum

Also that’s not actually clearing for me as if I were a strongman I’d have gotten through both

[Menalque]

Either way I don’t think you’re townfirmed here icon and the fact you keep trying to make it that way is making me v uncomfortable

[Menalque]

okay but the point is I don't think you are mechanically conftownable here and so you trying to make yourself so is ehhh

[Menalque]

got a result on aaron N1, remember?

actually, I forgot this

[Menalque]

huh actually yeah

[Menalque]

so if you were scum you'd need to be a rolecop/strongman who targeted dats on N1, bullshitted on Aaron and then strongmanned Aaron N2

[Menalque]

although hang on, both the scum were informed

[Menalque]

does the fact that there's no modifier mean that any information the scum informeds had is confirmed to have been known to them since the start of the game in full?

[Menalque]

although hang on, both the scum were informed

yeah i'm scum and we were informed that aaron was a pr, and that datisi was a roleblocker who targeted you on N2

on top of that, i'm a strongman

I doubt that's the scenario but obviously scum were given some information and it's worth taking that into account

[Menalque]

I admit that on balance of probability this is looking more likely that you're mech town now but I would like to clarify a couple of things first

[Menalque]

also the way you've played today with trying to force town yourself feels really wrong

[Menalque]

like yeah there's a benefit to it if you're clearly just town or something, but we're in a weird mechanical setup where things are not clear or obvious and if you're scum then you've basically locked the win as soon as you lock yourself in as mech cleared

[Menalque]

okay, so if that all adds up it is just micc

[Menalque]

Oh, he could also have a rb but strongman does seem more likely

[Menalque]

my fake vote is on micc, I think

I've run through it a bunch of times in my head, and I can't see how icon could have info on Aaron specifically N1, plus N2 info on Datisi AND a role that allowed him to kill through a rolestop on N2 at the same time. scum power has to be high here to compensate for the number of TPRs but I think that multitasking JOAT strongman-follower/tracker is too much even for this setup

like if that is in fact the role that icon has (or if the informed info somehow plays in here but just outright informing scum of who has what role for town seems still OP unless it's info given on D2 or D3 or something and the role is slightly weaker) then I just don't think that's something that's reasonable to expect town to guess and while I'm not exactly okay losing to it, it is some bullshit that you just can't get around

[Menalque]

I wanna reread icon's claim before I'm like finally set on that to make sure he didn't flush out enough info that he could then BS through it, but provided it checks out there too, what exactly do you want icon

[Menalque]

like if it's helpful to you for me to go through emps'/micc's ISO and try to call out a bunch of scummy shit then I can do that and if it's helpful for me to go through and refute whatever his case on me ends up being I can do that too

but I kinda feel like that's ultimately gonna be unproductive and that each of our ISOs in the last 160 pages should spew me pretty clearly as town and I'm assuming him pretty clearly as scum

[Menalque]

I think the more cogent question is: why are we both here, and why am I here over math/why are you here over math? like in the world of scum!micc, he has exactly 3 lylo possibilities:

(1) micc/math/mena
(2) micc/math/icon
(3) micc/mena/icon

I think (1) is obvious why it wasn't chosen -- I'd made it pretty clear that I was never voting math bc of ~*reasons*~ from D1. math was also TRing me pretty strongly throughout, so I think the odds of math voting me were slim too. so while there's like a chance that he swings math into voting me, I think this is clearly the worst lylo for micc

the more interesting question is why (3) not (2). honestly, I'd kind of expected (2) in the case of micc!scum because that seemed like the optimal setup for him to me -- bring math along who's had a tunnel on you, then with you getting no result (either from tracking me when I wold have died or knowing that you'd get no result on him) hope that he doesn't reconsider and push you hard as having a fake role. only by end of day yesterday, math was coming around to micc > icon as scum, and wasn't as locked on ico!scum as I think it looked like when he first entered the game. I also think math is a strong player prone to reconsideration, and that's a major thread, especially if he were to realise that math might smell a fish from finding himself in lylo with a slot he'd been semi-tunnelling for two days

which I think explains why we're in (3) -- I think it's the best lylo possible from micc's pov out of a bad set of 3. I was pretty confident on icon!town earlier, but my trajectory was basically the opposite of math's. I got less confident as time went on and there were no results/math continued to insist that icon be at least reconsidered. I was also less likely to feel obviously like it was a setup than math was, precisely because I had a different trajectory to him -- in fact, and I think this plays out, I was more likely to be paranoid about micc being brought along as a mislynch than about icon being brought along as the same, and I was leaning icon more than micc at start of day. likewise, icon and I have *history* together, and you've had a tendency throughout the game to get paranoid about me at various points. add that to math being dead when it seems like I should be dead, and that's another option for micc to play off in the hopes of getting you to vote me

[Menalque]

i think it's not very productive for you to scumcase micc

but a vote/wagon analyse would be wonderful?

yeah I can do this but it's not something I'm good at as I rarely use it as a tool

I mean I'm much more a tone/gamestate player but I'll try

[Menalque]

oh, and as another point, from the pov of me!scum, there are also 3 possible lylos:

me/math/icon
me/math/micc
me/icon/micc

in the first case, I'm mental because deliberately flipping micc!town is basically a losing move for scum!me regardless of what you/math think on each other, so obviously that's never happening when I'm scum. the other two are the more interesting for you to consider, because I think a (me/math/micc) lylo would be much more optimal for scum!me than this one. again, math was consistently TRing me throughout the game, you flipping town can easily be played off as micc not wanting to fight a 1v1 against you/not wanting to have a result from your PR, and I think that game is fairly locked up for scum me by just being conservative and telling math whatever he wants to hear.

whereas here I have to deal with you which is a pain in the ass from scum!me's pov given your doubts on me throughout the game, despite your position on micc being the most likely scum, because you know me better than anyone else in the game bar datisi and have actually played with scum!me twice. and if I this was a lylo I'd chosen, why do I not just push micc from start of day?

[Menalque]

Yo sorry i have a cold so you’re gonna have to wait for a bit on the VCA stuff

[Menalque]

Icon I see where your paranoia is coming from but consider that for me basically any lylo with micc alive is good for me whereas for micc none of the lylos are “good” per se so it’s more choosing one that’s not bad

[Menalque]

Or is the least bad*

[Menalque]

I think I probably have coronavirus but I’m gonna stay in this game as it’s basically done

VOTE: micc

Gl icon or well played if you’re scum

[Menalque]

Winning this is a nice thing to come back to

[Menalque]

I really enjoyed playing with everyone in this PL with one obvious exception

[Menalque]

Oh, the moderator was absolutely the worst too

[Menalque]

I really enjoyed your dead thread meltdown about me not getting suspected, AFF

[Menalque]

Fun fact: we nearly let you live bc we thought we’d be able to get you paranoia lynched

But then realised that even if you didn’t guilty us you’d just keep producing innos which would all be confirmed upon your death

[Menalque]

Also, for everyone wondering why I chose this lylo/saying it was a misplay

It was really very simple. At the end of the day, I decided “better the devil you know”. Math is/was a fairly unknown quantity to me, and I didn’t know how good he’d be at re-evaluating when it came down to it. Icon I do know, and I know how to play to him better, which is why I brought him.

(I also fucked up by not realising there’d be a distinction between “no result” and “negative result” which I thought meant I could push either, which obviously didn’t end up being the case)

[Menalque]

Having thought about it, I still think the setup was townsided but not to the extent I did while play was taking place. I think it was a cool setup, but I there was just too much town power in it — like a key point was that I think we only got the slaxx lynch because a whole load of townies were like “nah, there is too much power for this all to be true” and I think without that lynch this game probably ends in a town win almost regardless of how well we played just due to the number of chances for town power to fuck us up.

I agree it’s swingy and I think part of the reason I thought it was so townsided was because of the wrong power dying on D1 but I don’t think that should be enough to doom your game in any circumstance and it very nearly did.

I think if you lost the follower/tracker and ascetic townie, and scum lost the encryptor, the informed of roleblocker, the activated ascetic but gained an extra shot of strongman then it’d be balanced.

[Menalque]

I just don’t really buy that when you have a full:

Roleblocker — able to soft guilty and later on hard guilty
Rolestopper — full protective
Cop — snm fam
Tracker/follower — potentially able to hard
Ascetic — weak negative utility

Vs

Activated ascetic doctor — doctor bit does nothing, activated ascetic makes more susp than not
Encryptor — hard negative utility
1s strongman — only strongly positive scum role

[Menalque]

There are two roles there able to hard guilty from N1 and another role able to soft guilty and potentially hard guilty if they survive long enough

AND a full protective for those roles, should they out bit by bit

[Menalque]

Subject: Mini Normal 2119 [dead pt]

Alisae I will be interested in hearing your thoughts about the setup after the game.

pedit: Datisi your conclusion I think was the whole point of the setup. "So town sided as to be balanced".

town informed cop [there is a doctor]
town odd night roleblocker
town rolestopper
7 VTs

vs.

scum ascetic informed doctor [there is a cop]
informed goon [there is an odd night roleblocker]
even night strongman

that was deemed to be to scumsided so we adjusted the ascetic to be activatable, made the goon an ecrypter, and made the strongman 1-shot.
We then ungated the roleblocker, added a combined tracker/follower.

this leaves us with

Town Informed Cop (there's a doctor)
Town Roleblocker
Town Rolestopper
Town Combined Follower/Tracker
Town Ascetic

vs.
Scum Informed Doctor Activated Ascetic (there is a cop)
Informed Encrypter (there's a roleblocker)
1s Strongman

The idea was that scum's strength was the information it had and to adjust their strategy going into the day with that information.
The 1-shot strongman was supposed to go first. Bussing that gives scum a lot of room to discredit claims.
Apparently, according to NRG, this is 50/50 balanced but swingy and I don't mind swing so...

This one?

[Menalque]

What does FTC mean in this context btw?

[Menalque]

Oh, follow the cop

I couldn’t stop thinking final tribal council for some reason

[Menalque]

you have 2 ways of playing this
A. getting chemist to out the cop early by claiming cop
B. Using the fact that the doctor looks good within the setup and lynching the strongman, and using the strongman to discredit claims.

pedit: Follow the Cop

I mean, I did tell chem to do that he just saw it too late RIP

The reason I think it’s townsided is that even considering it a swingy setup, I nailed it in terms of when to use my strongman shot, and we played a solid scumgame but still it came down to the line and was somewhat dependent on luck (icon fluffing his result, slaxx self hammering, one slot being absent for most of the game) to make it that far, and while the nightkills being fairly dictated helped to an extent bc of it meaning a lack of a need to explain my aliveness it also severely limited options in terms of what to do bc town power simply HAD to be dealt with all the time. Like yes, D1 was bad for us, but I don’t think it should have felt like we were on the back foot for quite so much of the game considering that we played pretty well for that 1 day going badly

[Menalque]

I think this is almost changing from one question into two. The main issue at stake is whether the setup was townsided in and of itself, which I think it was. How much of this comes from a personal opinion that town should rarely, if ever, be able to win through relying on PRs is probably up for debate, but that is the POV I’m coming at it from. I also don’t disagree that there should be negatives for a scum team to losing

any

member on D1 and positives for town for lynching scum on D1.

However, the question is how long those things should last before good

play

comes back into things. Why was that slot caught in the first place? GL and icon doing an excellent job of scumhunting on D1, purely based on play and before PRs came into things. It was very well played by town and deserved to confer advantages. But after that lynch we were on the back foot for most of the game, and if slaxx hadn’t self voted then winning would have been significantly harder regardless of how well we were playing and how well what we had was used. If the game can go, with one role out of 13 being lynched on D1, to the point of being unwinnable without significant luck and regardless of play on behalf of one side then I’m sorry, but it’s unbalanced in favour of whichever side has that advantage. Like imagine a world in which icon doesn’t misunderstand his result, Aaron doesn’t out, and/or slaxx doesn’t self hammer. Bji and I played well here, I used my role basically perfectly, and we would still have been absolutely losing an overwhelming amount of the time. I don’t see how that’s balanced. If the argument is that we should just have played better or harder — okay, maybe, but at what point do you get to an unrealistic expectation of your scum!players? Again, bji and I played pretty damn well here but those flukes of chance were still NECESSARY for us to turn this from a loss to a win.

Putting us at a major disadvantage for a couple of days? Sure, that seems fair. But by D4 the game still felt stacked in favour of town and that’s after we’d had great strokes of luck regarding early mass claim and lynching a PR. We also managed to get TR throughout most of the game, so if the answer is “scum should just have played better” — okay, how? What could we have done to be playing better here? I’m sure there are things, but fundamentally our play was sound.

Taking all that into account, I think it’s very fair to say the setup was townsided. If town gain an advantage only reconcilable through luck or unreasonable expectations of skill from the scumteam based on one particular scumlynch on D1 then you’re beyond swing and into imbalance. Just what I think, and to be clear I still very much enjoyed the game and did enjoy the setup.

*****

Also, the chemist lynch was not avoidable from a gamestate pov, which is the other issue to be addressed. The slot was intensely scummy, and was always going to be tarnished by ceejay and bugs regardless of how towny Chem started playing, in the same way that emps was always the thorn in micc’s side despite him towning it UP after he got into the game. But I digress — chemist was always going to be looked at with suspicion, and that means that saving him would have meant that everyone in that wagon was going to be much harder to kill and suspicion would have been a lot harder on me and bji.

That bus won us the game by allowing the narratives of “bussing was unlikely” and “there can’t have been a double bus” to be created and to dictate the progression of the game from that point onwards. The question of the double bus was

still

being brought up in lylo, and icon can tell us if not, but I suspect that was one factor that played into his micc vote.

[Menalque]

Town's are, by and large, not as smart as scum think they are. Scum have this weird tendency to bus scumbuddies on D1 far more often than what would actually be necessary since the town on D1 has a much much much harder time than people think of lynching scum.

I don’t think this is wrong, per se, but I do think it’s looking at things too much in the short term. The question is not “can we, as scum, prevent the scum lynch on D1?” The question is “does bussing or not bussing do the best job of setting us up for a victory by lylo, and what will the consequences be for the rest of the team if this slot does flip scum?”

I think a looker lynch into a likely chemist!lynch D2 where bji and I were on looker not on Chem is losing in this game.