Mini Normal 2139: No Flavor Allowed - Game Over

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Persivul

Because wagon.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: LuckyLuciano

I didn't like the way he hopped onto the wagon (though I couldn't really put my finger on why not), and I don't like this last post.

[Umlaut]

Umlaut already trying to derail the quickly growing wagon on his scum buddy.

Page 1 solve: Persivul + Umlaut

Damn you're good, game over folks.

[Umlaut]

The three scum are Persy, me, and me again

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Hoctac

I hate that shit.

What shit do you hate exactly?

[Umlaut]

And you think that's alignment-indicative, and a person who goofs around about claims on page 1 is more likely to be scum?

[Umlaut]

Defensiveness and frustration isn't an alignment-indicative trait.

Persivul is still a scummy boy.

Since when do you actually think Persivul is scummy (as opposed to just lolwagon voting him on page 1)?

[Umlaut]

It's not about being reactionary - it's about what Lucky is reacting against.

At this point it has been well-established that clidd's initial claim about Lucky's early play wasn't accurate. Lucky reacted against that.
The question now is, was that reaction from Lucky-town who knows clidd used bad reasoning to come to an incorrect conclusion, or was it from Lucky-scum who knows clidd used bad reasoning to come to a

correct

conclusion?
I believe the evidence makes the latter likely. He's going 'what? this looks just like my town game!' That level of awareness of how you're playing like your town game would definitely come from scum. It wouldn't necessarily happen if one were town. Hence, I think leaves Lucky as >rand scum for the time being.

I'

[Umlaut]

Er, was going to say: I'm not sure I buy this case but I buy it as coming from town.

[Umlaut]

Umlaut is scummy for trying to again redirect attention back on me for attacking his scum buddy. Decent odds of scum.

This is hypersensitive at best. I asked you a question and instead of answering it you are trying to say I'm scummy for asking it. It's also the first time I've interacted with you at all so I'm not doing anything "again."

How about you tell me why you think Persy is scum?

[Umlaut]

VOTE: lucky
Hate his page 2

Clidd is trying way too hard

SirCakez probably town (though I'm maybe too eager sometimes to townread people because their thoughts match up with mine)

[Umlaut]

Actually I think a lot of what looks off to me about Clidd is just his writing style, but 76 really does seem like "trying too hard" even taking that into account.

[Umlaut]

Actually I think a lot of what looks off to me about Clidd is just his writing style, but 76 really does seem like "trying too hard" even taking that into account.

People tell me that, but honestly I don't see anything strange when I re-read my posts.

I would try to explain it, but it's difficult to explain and honestly kind of off-topic since the whole point is that it's NAI. I'm more interested in talking about who you think is likely scum, because aside from maybe Lucky I have no idea.

[Umlaut]

Hm. Lucky is probably the closest thing to a scumread I have right now. I'm not thrilled with Hoctac but I'm waiting to hear his answers, I kind of liked him for town until I realized he was actually serious and not just goofing off.

[Umlaut]

@valoneast

Thoughts on, well, anything?

[Umlaut]

Okay, I changed my mind.

VOTE: Hoctac

Oversensitive newb scum at its finest.

[Umlaut]

Are ° the same as % or are they a new unit of your own devising?

I take back my last post. Hoctac is just ridiculous, not necessarily scummy.

VOTE: LuckyLuciano

[Umlaut]

@Hoctac

Where, if anywhere, have you played Mafia before?

[Umlaut]

I like Reundo's entry. Meaning I think it's town, but also meaning I more or less agree with it. I maybe have more of a Cakez townread though, I realize there's not a ton there but what is seems pretty transparent and natural to me.

[Umlaut]

At this point I have some form of town lean on ... and SirCakez.

Why do you have a town lean on SirCakez?

Tell me you didn't TR him as an attempt to prevent him from turning #89 into a vote.

This is a weird post. Ragman, what is this supposed to accomplish? Is this actually something you think Klick did?

I was hoping you'd say it was more about reading farside than rag. ragman has a 4-post ISO. There's no need for someone to piece bits together and sell it.

I wasn't trying to sell anything. I was only giving the reason for my vote, after studying 5 pages of content that happened when I was gone.

I'm trying to find out more useful information which doesn't involve knowledge about previous games, to build a better opinion on who is scum.

This is a weird post too, because the "you" to whom Persivul was speaking was obviously Klick and because the second part is telling us what you intend to do when you could just be doing it. Hey Rag, how's that trying to find out more useful information going?

[Umlaut]

I'm making some fresh coffee. I'll catch up after.

Are you done making that coffee yet?

[Umlaut]

I feel like i did when i created a game where everyone had 2 votes that they could use to either vote a player twice or split their votes between 2 scum reads. If i could do that I'd vote for cakez too right now.

Talk to me about this read because I'm not seeing Cakez scum at all. He could certainly be efforting more (hey Cakez, you really need to effort more) but he just seems like low-energy town. His tone is pretty free and his impressions of the game look natural and unforced, and he's transparent about being sort of lost.

[Umlaut]

Cakez makes more of an effort typically. The lack of follow through and really good reads or free following thoughts are missing from him.
IE: this game not the typical town cakez.

Okay, and this game is the typical scum Cakez?

I don't have any experience with scum Cakez (and I barely remember my experience with town Cakez) but my general impression is that players who make an effort do so as either alignment. Do you disagree and think it's common for effort to be a tell?

("Scum Cakez" sounds like the worst Little Debbie product ever)

[Umlaut]

Lucky, I think you just need to explain what you were trying to do with copying your previous game, because it's going to be a constant distraction until you do and at this point almost certainly isn't going to accomplish whatever you were trying to do in the first place.

Zulfy, any updated thoughts? I liked your initial call-out of Lucky and I still like it but I'm starting to waver on actually scumreading him, are you still confident there and why?

[Umlaut]

I'm going to keep my vote where it's at for now, but I support the Ragman wagon.

Why is this? Why not support the wagon by voting on it? I get that it would be L–1 but is that the only reason?

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: LuckyLuciano

He's looked a lot more towny in these posts and I sort of understand where he was coming from in the first place now. I don't take any of the earlier accusations as deliberate misreps, though. I kind of like his waiting to put the vote on Ragman even when he was under pressure and Ragman was an opportune wagon, and even though his response to my question about that was kind of a brush-off it seemed like a towny one for reasons that are hard to articulate.

Could do Ragman but it's way too early to lynch. Not really interested in Klick. I'll have to take a closer look in a bit to find a good vote.

[Umlaut]

I just went through valoneast's ISO and almost voted for him after just a couple posts, then changed my mind about halfway through, then changed my mind again about 3/4 through, then changed it a few more times. So I'm just going to post my thoughts on the ISO in raw form and then figure out what it means to me after.

The three scum are Persy, me, and me again

Does this mean we have to lynch you twice?

VOTE: Umlaut

Anyways, first time playing on this site since... 7/8 years ago? Quarantine has me bored, but please treat me like a newb for all intents and purposes. I'm sure I'll get the hang of this game again soon enough.

Bad intro. Not because he's voting me, but because he's voting me immediately after two other people whose votes are... well, maybe not that serious but not totally roll-a-die random either, and yet doesn't seem to be doing so for any real reason or to be interested in what the reasons for this incipient wagon might be.

Heard my name.

You guys are absolutely going at breakneck speeds here. I know the newb card will get me more flak, but I've been reading every post so far, trying to follow along. I mean, about 50% of the argument is linked to your prior game(s), which once again, I CAN'T CONTRIBUTE IN.

Not sure how you guys play your games, but when I've got something to contribute. I will.

First of all not really true (there were meta comments but they were pretty marginal and there was plenty else to discuss), and secondly making excuses for not doing things when he could be finding things to do.

Just spitballing:

4. Hoctac - I absolutely hate this personality, claiming random shit. Making light of every situation. Generally, just shit disturbing the entire game.
6. Persivul - +1 for being friendly and slightly helpful? Though I'm not sure if this is out of frustration for my lack of game or not.
10. LuckyLuciano - Less scummy the more the game goes on. We'll see.
11. farside22 - One massive post, painting a picture of town to me, but still too early to tell.
12. Klick - Actually, the biggest scumread in my books. He's been bouncing around votes all day here. Seeing what sticks. Just bounces around in what I perceive as a random manner.
13. SirCakez - comes in and out of the conversation a couple of times, never posting anything relevant to the conversation.

Easy superficial reads, the kind that you give when you're just looking for something to write about and don't really care whether you sort anyone correctly or not.

Atarashi bothers me a little bit but I don't know how to describe it.

Stuff like this! Is there something that they're phrasing that's causing you to be thrown off or bothering you? Personally I think they're trying to prod a slightly crazed character.

This felt kind of fake when I saw it and I should have pointed it out then but I thought it was probably nothing and didn't really think more about it. Looking more closely, I can see it as serving a purpose more of advertising "valoneast is suspicious of SirCakez" than of trying to sort either him or Atarashi.

the Hoctac interaction mainly

haha, but how else would you interact with Hoctac in this case. Honestly, the sooner we're rid of them the better.

Lucky's aggression to me did feel pretty towny at first and looked more like it came from town who was pissed at being misrepresented, but the first sentence of this post does ping me the wrong way.

Just wondering why? That first sentence just seems like he's trying to use their logic and he's exasperated that people can't follow it.

These posts are asking better questions than the last post but honestly pretty null overall, anyone could ask these.

Lucky's aggression to me did feel pretty towny at first and looked more like it came from town who was pissed at being misrepresented, but the first sentence of this post does ping me the wrong way.

Just wondering why? That first sentence just seems like he's trying to use their logic and he's exasperated that people can't follow it.

Admitting to copying his past town game down to the exact post is pretty strange. The only reason it doesn't bother me more is because he claimed he'd reveal the town motivation for that later on, so I'm not too concerned about it atm.

Hmm, to me it seems rather neutral. Opening move is the same every time, and keep consistent, as soon as you deviate people will jump.

This is actually the best evidence

defending

valoneast that I could find, because I don't see why scum!valoneast would resist this point so much. Lucky copying his previous opening is definitely

weird

no matter what you ultimately make of it, and I think scum!valoneast would more likely remain open to accepting that as a reason to scumread Lucky down the road. (Unless they're scum together but then I wouldn't think he would want to talk so much about Lucky at all, defending or not)

any reasons for Luciano? It's been a while since they've said anything and imo there's been people with more red flags than them. Luciano sounds like they're frustrated with us fixated on the, "Im going to try this whole thing where I play the same as this last game I was town, as it seems like a logical thing". And it sounds genuine that he probably regrets it now, and he wouldn't say "all will be revealed to you in the future" as it sounds just SOOO scummy that they can't be scum, nobody's THAT stupid... right?

Actually it's maybe weird that he keeps popping up specifically to respond to suspicions of Lucky?

Im not really sure on the theory of mafia, but a quick D1 lynch isn't really town beneficial. I assume that you want to read people, see how wagon forms and such. You mentioned that you wanted a quick D1 lynch on post #14 and #26, so that causes for concern.

As the game's rolled on, it just sounds more and more like you took a shot in #36, where you mentioned that you've copied your town game, asking for an explanation how someone's thought process led you to believe that you were scum like. However this completely backfire as that argument itself made it scumesque. At this point I had a bit of scumread on you.

However, as I thought about it more and more, I realized that you were merely frustrated, and commenting on someone's argument of your "ploy" is actually quite logical, maybe executed poorly.

This seems off because valoneast never actually showed any suspicion of Lucky in the first place, he just kept his random vote on me up until he removed it because "it's not doing anything"

A good scum player can pass off as town, so that makes any of my townreads this early meaningless.

Generally I like this, but isn't the point of D1 chat to see how people lean? The idea is that scum has limited information, so you for the most part you're just trying to decipher why people feel a certain way towards other. and their thinking behind it. I think at this point all 12 of us is just trying ask you how you lean.

Fluffy

You can take my word for it and keep it in mind later in the game when it's more relevant for me to explain myself, or you can push for my reasoning immediately.

I think this is the worry we all have, why bother revealing this idea anyways? Why not just NOT bring of this argument. IMO I think you were trying a new move and are genuinely frustrated that people are fixated on this idea that you had to "copy your town game to seem town" for whatever reason that is. Your past posts have been all about defending that, and you sound genuinely annoyed/frustrated. Breadcrumbing (I think that's what is called) a little less obvious next time, if you're actually breadcrumbing.

Fluffy

I find farside more and more towny as the game goes on. Decent questions, always asking for an explanation on why a certain decision was made. I guess scum can replicate this as well, but they mix in their opinions and really try to understand others and what they're saying.

Okay, I guess

I'm also worried that he seemed to have operated under the assumption that I was scum prior to engaging in the reaction test, which doesn't show good faith

Why not? Isn't the point to see if any scum alarms get alerted when doing said reaction test? If you don't trigger it, then the assumption goes away? I'm confused about this.

Fluffy

Nope, it's not the only reason.

Arghhh! It's stuff like this. By your posts and our interaction, you seem genuine and logical. But then you say something like this and everyone raises their eyebrows and all collectively go "Huh? Why?". Maybe this is some advanced play that I don't understand. Maybe there's a "King in the palace" type of role in this open game.

... I keep flip flopping on you for reasons like these. XD

Fluffy (and what raised your eyebrows about that post anyway?)

I like your comments, but I don't see anything outside of your scum-rage. The reason I'm townreading you is because of your emotional reaction to my push, especially when Zulfy joined the conversation. So basically from my point of view you are a town with incorrect reads about me and I probably feel that my vote on Ragman intensified your feeling that he would be scum on the Scum!Clidd scenario. In this context, your scumreads start from a distorted perception of the game state, which weakens the accuracy of your general reads on the slots, unless, of course, your evaluation encompasses interpretations outside the speculation that I am scum.

Once again, it's fine to read someone based on their initial scummyness, but have you read what he's been doing afterwards? I had the same thought as you, but from reading his iso and his willingness to admit his frustrations, (coming from a guy who was also frustrated), does it not seem like he is actually, just frustrated? He willingly admits this! That can't be a scum thing to do can it? it's just TOO obvious I feel. His explanations do seem well thought out. Even if a bit defensive.

Now, you might think I'm defending him, but the fact that he is hiding something does sound off alarms, I just can't imagine a scenario that he's scum!Lucky, but why so many secrets.

Maybe he as scum!Lucky is playing that obviously so that town WON'T lynch. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit?

This is much better, it comes off like valoneast is confused and can't make up his mind about Lucky and really is trying to get help doing so. I like how Clidd makes it clear he townreads valoneast and then valoneast is like "what? never mind that, what about this Lucky guy?" and keeps pushing that topic.

@/u/fuckswithducks, have you done this yet?

Yep, I think his reaction was acceptable, as with all, but he didn't really have a scumread on you, just that he would vote on you due to what you said. I know you think #46 unvote seems weird, but it's not if you read his explanation in 51, 53, 58, he does back it up. He did his probing, and he got some reactions. he doesn't have to immediate dictate you for these actions for the rest of the game, just he came, got some info, and left.

From a scum!clidd standpoint, I feel like he might've wanted to push the wagon harder, seeing what you had to hide, or keep reminding us of this pressure on you. I mean, it's a pretty big tell IMO, but he was willing to drop it after a bit.

He's leaning more town than you are atm.

Again much better than earlier stuff, and makes me feel like the earlier "I can't find a hook into the game" complaint was genuine if he was capable of producing stuff like this once he did.

---

Okay, I guess valoneast can be town, because the towny things I found are more convincing individually than the scummy things. Something felt forced about his earlier contributions but I could see them coming from an overwhelmed townie trying to find a place to start.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Zulfy

I thought he was town for his push on Lucky before, but it was a pretty easy thing to latch on to and he hasn't done anything else of value so far except pop back in and say "I'm here," then disappear again.

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Ragman Saul Rima

He disappeared from the forum, probably hasn't read the topic yet. Consider my vote spiritually on his slot.

He just posted right hours ago, what are you talking about?

[Umlaut]

Pedit:

eight

hours ago

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Ragman Saul Rima

He disappeared from the forum, probably hasn't read the topic yet. Consider my vote spiritually on his slot.

He just posted right hours ago, what are you talking about?

Didn't you notice that his last post was 254 and we're going to 385 ?

I wouldn't say I especially took note of the post numbers, no. Are you really going to call stepping away for eight hours "disappearing from the forum"? It reads like you think he's about to siteflake when that s a totally normal amount of time to step away and not anything worth moving a vote over.

[Umlaut]

Are we speaking the same language ? I can not understand you. The withdrawal of my vote was to give him more time to return without a lolhammer in the meantime.

Okay, I get it now. The wording made me think you were saying you thought they were likely not coming back.

I would say don't worry about quickhammers because they're so anti-town they're basically a scumclaim, except it never seems to work out that way in practice. So I can't say your concern is totally unfounded.

If you want, I can draw to help you follow the reasoning.

I realize you're being a smartass but I kind of want to see this drawing now

L-1. This is where someone already on the wagon is supposed to fake hammer.

Or it could be where you offer a read, or a question, or any kind of thought about the game at all?

[Umlaut]

391 -> Emphasizing the obvious is not being smart and it really is not in my interest that your capacity to interpret is below average.

Note

: Ignore this post.

So do I get to see the drawing, or...?

[Umlaut]

I think if Klick were going to fake a read list they would fake some scum reads while they were at it, not post one with basically everyone neutral at worst. Faking reads isn't really such a tremendous difficulty for scum as people act like it is.

That read list is terrible. Zulfy is barely around and you have a town read.

Pers is barely around

and a town read.

Where are people getting this? I'm the third highest poster, and most of them are on topic.

Your posts are 1-2 sentences long and most of them are "on topic" in the loose sense that they're about the game but don't really do anything to solve it. And you came back from not having posted for a while to make another one-sentence inconsequential comment. Do more.

[Umlaut]

Fuck you. You don't know me very well. I don't take well to orders.

See, that's three sentences! Already an improvement, now you just need the "being useful" part.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Ragman Saul Rima

Better wagon than Klick.

[Umlaut]

@Mod For what it's worth, I'm not really personally upset by anything Persivul posted at me

Wasn't expecting that big a reaction but now I'm worried that assuming he does get to stay in the game I may have pushed Persivul to just refuse to contribute out of spite. Oh well. Fwiw I'm pretty sure he's town, just wanted to see something concrete because tone isn't really enough to hang a solid read on.

(Honestly I'm kind of surprised that anyone can get IRL offended by anything in a mafia game but it sure seems to happen enough that I have to believe it)

[Umlaut]

I assume the hard disagree is with this:

I think if Klick were going to fake a read list they would fake some scum reads while they were at it, not post one with basically everyone neutral at worst. Faking reads isn't really such a tremendous difficulty for scum as people act like it is.

I guess we just disagree on this then. I can't exactly point to anything to argue the point but I'm not going to scumread someone for having a hard time finding suspects in the early game when that's most of my town games ever.

[Umlaut]

Is he lurking or just offline?

I was going to say "he's lurking" but I took a quick look at his post history and yeah, he's all but disappeared.

Shouldn't we wagon Zulfy ? He's hardcore lurking and he did the same thing in our past game, which he was scum.

This is bad. You're not voting currently. Just vote him. Why are you asking permission to start a wagon?

See, this. I like this.

[Umlaut]

I think Quick is bad town.

What do you find bad?
What do you find town?

[Umlaut]

Wagon on Persivul probably collapsed because Town has no idea what they are doing and everyone just hopped on the next wagon.

The wagon on Persivul was just RVS garbage, I don't recall him ever picking up a lot of real suspicion.

[Umlaut]

I find it very hard to buy a scum read based on Zulfy just not being here. I'm not expect all of you to drop your entire lives for this game.

I don't know about a major scumread, but in the absence of better options I can see it as something to vote. Zulfy came in with an early push on Lucky for something that, while worth suspicion, was also a really easy thing to push on, and since that petered out he's made exactly one post which was "I'm here guys" and that's it. He'd honestly be better off without the "I'm here guys" post because if he's just not in the game that's a lot more understandable than being in the game but not doing anything.

I agree that Clidd's 499 is really awkward though.

[Umlaut]

Klick's exit here is probably emotional, so I think he's town.

This is a very strange claim and I need you to explain where you are getting it from. What would Klick have reacted to emotionally?

[Umlaut]

Seeking a replacement for Persivul.

oops

[Umlaut]

VOTE: clidd

He's been pinging me a bunch lately. The Zulfy vote is bad, the rolefishing in 477 is bad, and I don't think someone who has Ragman as his top scumread is that afraid of leaving him at L-1 for a bit.

[Umlaut]

I linked the newbie game we played, this is full meta read. He is playing very similarly here as he did there. I don't fully believe someone so new to the forum could emulate the same tone while trying to hide being scum.

I think a big part of what presents as Clidd's "tone" is really just translation effects. But at any rate I think this argument is fallacious if you're going solely by his tone in a town game without having a scum game to compare.

[Umlaut]

No one is going to join me on Hactoc so I will go somewhere else.

This seems spicy enough I guess...

VOTE: Zulfy

It's not a terrible vote, but it's unlikely to get any reaction from Zulfy unless he suddenly starts posting again. How about a vote on someone who will actually see it?

pedit

Who is being pocketed?

[Umlaut]

Don't like Umlaut's Persivul push. He's attacking Pers for things that are NAI.

This would make sense if I was saying he was scum for those things, but I wasn't saying that and I didn't/don't think he was.

Quick's entrance not helping my read on the slot.

Meaning it's not helping you to form a read, or that it's not making you think it's town?

(I have Quick as a reasonably solid townread atm)

[Umlaut]

Had Reundo as probtown earlier but I agree with SirCakez that's slipping due to the low activity. Would like to see a lot more from him

[Umlaut]

Clarify?

I was criticizing Persivul because after having not posted for over a day, he came back to a wagon at L-1 and quite a bit of activity and all he had to say was

L-1. This is where someone already on the wagon is supposed to fake hammer.

which is completely non-game-advancing. That was really bad play on his part and so I told him, in kind of a snarky manner, that he should actually participate in sorting. When he started arguing the point I did keep poking at him in hopes of getting a better read from it, but I was never trying to accuse him of being scum.

[Umlaut]

Why a town read [on Quick]?

He just reinforced my scum read. He basically voted on lynch bait material and a player that is mia. Calls pers town and said nothing that says hey im scum hunting

I mean, I agree Pers/Ame is town so.

I just like his posts so far. I didn't really think Klick was scum in the first place, and while I don't exactly want to lynch Hoctac right this second I think it's a legitimate slot to be suspicious of. The rapid-fire-post catchup looks like legitimate reading in and not like someone who's hyperconscious of how they look.

[Umlaut]

Are you familiar with Persivul's play at all?

Like, a little? He was in my first non-newbie game on the site where he was mislynched day one. I feel like I may remember being in another game with him but it was probably around when I siteflaked, so I didn't really pay attention to his play there. So I don't have a lot of meta to go on.

[Umlaut]

I don't understand how my being familiar with his play or not is relevant to whether posting pointless quips and no reads is bad play.

[Umlaut]

Umlaut - Persivul's posting style is like how he was playing this game. What you're SRing for I'm not sure is actually scummy coming from him.

But I'm not SRing for it? I feel like I've been really clear about that.

[Umlaut]

I mean Umlaut I'd consider this Pers's style, a little obnoxious and doesn't care what others think
So I don't see how it doesn't relate to your SR

There is no SR for it to relate to
I don't scumread Pers/Ame
At no point did I really have more than default-level suspicion of Pers/Ame
I don't know why this is hard for you to understand.

[Klick/Quick is mafia because of reasons]

I need to think about this before deciding what to make of it. I don't really buy the scumtells as scummy but the knowledge-slip is interesting. At the least I'm pretty sure Hoctac doesn't make this post as scum.

[Umlaut]

Actually I want to see Quick's own response before I chime in. (I know the case is entirely on Klick's posts but there is something specific I'd like to see or not see before I make my post)

[Umlaut]

Yeah, the thing I was going to wait on Quick's response for was that Informed Townie with knowledge of a neighborhood is as far as I can tell totally Normal.

If Quick were scum there is a possibility he would be unsure about that and not want to make that claim, which would make life harder for him. Since he did make that claim I suppose that didn't work, but I can see the post Hoctac calls out as more likely as a crumb than a slip.

[Umlaut]

So you think he's town now?

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: clidd
I'd much rather lynch a neighbor today than this.

Haven't caught up with all the new posts yet, but I noticed something and had an idea. And I don't know that I really even believe the idea is true but it's worth bringing up at least and seeing if anyone can help me think it through.

What this means is that Qlick is scum with one of Zulfy, Atarashi, or valoneast, and subconsioulsy let slip that he was aware of this info. The only other explanation is that he's an Informed Townie, that was for some reason aware of the hood, but is that even Normal? Probably not.

EVERYONE vote for Kluick today. This will clear me as town, and confirm one of Atarashi/valoneast/Zulfy as scum. This game is basically over already.

At the time while I was waiting for Quick to accept the Informed Townie possibility or not, I kind of thought "Why would Hoctac bring that possibility up for him at all?" and wished he hadn't, because Quick's claim would have been a bit more immediately believable if it hadn't been fed to him by his accuser.

But now I'm thinking about it more and I don't know why Hoctac would, upon thinking of the possibility of an Informed Townie, still make this post as some sort of slam-dunk scum case, outing his whole neighborhood against their wishes and everything, without first trying to verify whether Informed Townie is a real possibility or not. If I imagine a normal town player in this situation they probably start by, if nothing else, talking to their neighbors about this before taking such drastic action with an incomplete case. It would be more natural if Hoctac had just not thought about the possibility of an Informed at all and said there is literally no other possibility than Quick being scum with one of his neighbors. As it is it seems like they included that detail in their post to indicate that they had considered all the angles but failed to actually let those angles get in the way of his accusation.

Now, suppose for a moment that Hoctac is scum making some sort of play here, maybe angling for enough town cred to pull off a long string of mislynches on his neighbors or something. (I could believe this, sort of -- three town for one scum is a hell of a good trade for scum if they can guarantee it.) In this case, if we believe Quick is town, we have to believe that Hoctac spotted Klick's Informed soft, correctly guessed his role, and decided he could use it as a basis for calling Quick scum even though he know Quick would just immediately admit he was Informed and blow that apart. On the other hand, if we believe Quick is scum, we have to believe that Hoctac and Quick are just scum-theatring as part of an even more audacious play, with hopes of... getting Quick a permanent town read? And/or giving the two of them a reason not to scumread one another for the rest of the game. Hoctac sure isn't being quick to reverse their scumread on Quick, though, and I don't know what to make of that.

[Umlaut]

In a way it would make a lot more sense for scum!Hoctac to be paying close attention to the posts of Klick the scumbuddy under fire than to those of Klick the random townie, so he would almost certainly notice scum!Klick's slip

[Umlaut]

"Why would Hoctac bring that possibility up for him at all?" and wished he hadn't

This is a good point. I should've feigned ignorance about it. I only thought of it literally as I typed that sentence in the post. wHoOpS

I'm more concerned that having thought of it at all you just kind of threw it in your post without it giving you any pause as to whether your case was solid or not, you just sort of waved it off in the same sentence.

[Umlaut]

What's the meta on multiple scum in a neighborhood, btw? Still trying to think through all the possibilities in the setup.

[Umlaut]

Wait, I just realized this, your PM literally says. "There is at least one Scum in the hood", paraphrasing obviously. That's your role?

... If so I take back my 70% math calculation, I must've looked like an idiot for saying that.

Okay so this is lock town.

[Umlaut]

@Hoctac: Who is in your neighborhood?

Atarashi, valonhost, zulfy.

Correct.

Wait, is this all part of your information? You were informed that there is a neighborhood consisting of Hoctac, Atarashi, valoneast, and Zulfy,

and

that one of them is scum? Is there anything else you were informed about?

[Umlaut]

Okay so this is lock town.

Whats your thought process there?

I mean, I thought you were probably town anyway

and

you're in a neighborhood with three other people at every one of whom is a better suspect than you are. But if that weren't enough, I just don't see you as scum failing to understand an enemy's power role hard enough to post something like "70% chance there is scum in the neighborhood, not 100%" only to take it back a couple pages later, and I don't see you faking it either.

(I actually thought you were saying there was a 30% chance Quick was just lying

and

there were in fact no scum in the nhood, which I thought was a weirdly high probability to assign to that but whatever)

[Umlaut]

Wait, is this all part of your information? You were informed that there is a neighborhood consisting of Hoctac, Atarashi, valoneast, and Zulfy, and that one of them is scum? Is there anything else you were informed about?

Quoting again because this just seems like an awful lot of detailed information to hand someone in a role PM.

[Umlaut]

Yeah, when you want someone dead the best way to do that is to say they're not a good lynch

[Umlaut]

I mean maybe I do want your slot dead a little because I'm sick of the gifs and also because I despair of ever sorting you decisively short of that. You'd be a better cop target or something though.

[Umlaut]

And haha, no, I literally just misread what Quick was saying. Math wise, if you choose a random group of four people, with a 3/13 ratio, chances of choosing all town are (10/13) * (9/12) * (8/11) * (7/10) = roughly 30%. So 70% chance of there it containing scum.

Off-topic: this is a bad way of thinking about the odds, because the presence and number of scum in the neighborhood are chosen as part of the setup design and not at random. If you really wanted to reason about the priors here, you'd be better off looking at past Normal games with a neighborhood to get an empirical probability.

Btw, I've been thinking about that more, on the off chance that Quick is lying!Scum, what does he have to gain? Prior to this claim there was a wagon on his slot, if Hoatac's reveal trigger to the scum that there is a neighbourhood, a quick false!Claim to being an informed townie stating that there is a scum amongst them would likely generate 4 mislynches. I looked at the timestamp, he had an hour before making his move, and his vote was on hoatac out of "reasons" already in literally the first vote of the game. However, this is really unlikely, and probably an even MORE unlikely scenario then Hoatac's claim that Zulfy/Brass leaked info to Quick's slot. But this gambit only works if NO SCUM is in this hood. So... 30% chance that he'll make this play if no scum were in the hood.

I just can't see any scenario where there are no scum in the nhood, even if Quick is scum, because it would mean that the 'slip' was a total coincidence

and

Quick would know that. I don't buy the idea that Quick would see a flawed case on him and lean into it, claiming Informed and effectively confessing to the slip/crumb, if the case is just wrong and he can say as much.

[Umlaut]

@Hoctac: Who is in your neighborhood?

Atarashi, valonhost, zulfy.

Correct.

Wait, is this all part of your information? You were informed that there is a neighborhood consisting of Hoctac, Atarashi, valoneast, and Zulfy,

and

that one of them is scum? Is there anything else you were informed about?

@Quick

In case it wasn't clear, could you regard this as an actual and not rhetorical question, and answer it?

in this case what was the "slip" incident, which post?

150, the one to which Hoctac refers in his case.

Wow. Is that really what you want to do?

Bad post

Cool.

This brushoff reads more town than not but then I already think this slot is likely town.

[Umlaut]

I've been thinking about the Klick/Quick slot for a while and at this point I'm leaning more town than scum. I find myself having to make less concessions when analyzing their play from a town perspective rather than a scum one. Like I'm not sure why Klick would want to make post 150 as scum anyhow. It wouldn't really help for town-cred since if anything it'll draw even more suspicion (questions like "why ask Atarashi/Hoctac in particular?"). Calling out them in particular seems very deliberate, and it'd be a pretty notable lapse of judgment for him to go the extent of almost pretending to be an Informed Townie himself and forget he wasn't supposed to know about the neighborhood. Otoh I think it's plausible that town!Klick would either want to give a heads up to the neighborhood or leave a crumb that he is informed (though leaving out Zulfy does hamper this theory slightly).

Actually on reflection I agree with pretty much all of this. I'd still like to see Quick answer about the details of his informedness though.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Quick

I like a lot of Lucky's points here.

@Umlaut: What was bad about my post? Specifically, what was worse about it than the Quick post it was referencing, which you didn't mention?

Quick's post had a vote and some sort of read, and yours had neither, so yours is 100% worse.

[Umlaut]

What exactly was Quick's "read"? Other than I'm dumb?

I didn't say Quick's post was like brilliant scumhunting (you may notice I'm voting him now), but it appeared to me he was saying you were fabricating a reason to scumread him by feigning inability to understand his posts.

And any specific point of Lucky's, or just "a lot of" them?

There were a lot of posts, I need to go read all of them and put together responses to which points I liked, about to do that.

VOTE: Quick

We're back in business.

This makes me feel less paranoid about Hoctac. Especially if Quick flips red, but a little even if not.

[Umlaut]

Also, @Umlaut: My post right before that one had reads and a post, so why say anything at all if you're not going to reference it? Do you see how you could come off as scummily subjective?

I don't know, your response to the post bothered me whereas your previous post I just barely cared about at all when I read it. If you think that's scummy of me then don't try to convince me of that, vote me or something.

@Umlaut: And you bought Quick's assertion that I was fabricating a scumread despite what I referenced in the post I voted him?

I wouldn't say I bought it, but people do that sort of thing all the time ("you can't possibly fail to understand me because I'm everything I write is infinitely clear, so you must be scum") so I didn't make anything of it.

[Umlaut]

Also your predecessor was pretty suspect so you kind of have to carry that, whereas I was townreading Klick/Quick at the time, so I'm not going to deny that could influence my reading.

[Umlaut]

Actually, before I do that, I noticed something

lol i c

Do we believe this is a soft (well, not that soft I guess)? I have a real reason for asking this but I'd rather people answer this before I say the reason.

[Umlaut]

Actually, before I do that,

"that" being go through Lucky's posts all over again to give my impressions

[Umlaut]

Also, @Umlaut: My post right before that one had reads and a post, so why say anything at all if you're not going to reference it? Do you see how you could come off as scummily subjective?

I don't know, your response to the post bothered me whereas your previous post I just barely cared about at all when I read it. If you think that's scummy of me

then don't try to convince me of that

, vote me or something.

So, pretty much the

same

thing as Quick: "Shut up and don't talk to me."

I know I'm not scum. You're not going to convince me I'm scum. If you think I'm scum then tell someone else, not me.

[Umlaut]

I went through the Lucky posts again and wasn't as sold as I thought I was, maybe I was just impressed there were so many of them, idk. Have to think about it more, I'm flip-flopping all over the place there.

Spoiler: Lucky postspam commentary

I'm going to say that one of the two players that jumped from Ragman to Klick has to be mafia if Ragman is mafia. Given my townread on Farside, and the opportune time of Brass' switch, I'm going to say it's probably Brass. I agree with Umlaut here, and feel like the Klick wagon at this point is a lot of forced nothingness.

Like this reasoning (I

think

not just for the ego stroke)

@Quick, were you following the game prior to replacing in?

I take this, being 4 minutes later, to mean that the answer to my last question is "no". Congrats Quick, in the blink of an eye you took all of the reasons I have to believe is town, and you have replaced them with a massive pile of, "Who told you to vote Hoctac immediately upon replacing in?"

I like this point. It's not conclusive but it deserves an explanation.

Really sorry. You got robbed. Sorry again.

???? What even is this post ????

Don't really think this means anything tbh, I'd take it as just Quick the person talking to Persy the person.

Okay, flip me. Then you can read all my posts for associations. How does that sound?

This sounds large warning bells for me. The way we play, the Matyr defense is scum! or newb!. Usually only because in RL you're not given as much time to come as something on the spot. But reading his posts up to this point, I find it hard to imagine this being newb!Quick.

Agreed.

Disagreed, I see it come pretty much from any alignment and experience level. I think it's a stupid defense in all cases but I see it enough not to SR it.

Actually I want to see Quick's own response before I chime in. (I know the case is entirely on Klick's posts but there is something specific I'd like to see or not see before I make my post)

Yeah, the thing I was going to wait on Quick's response for was that Informed Townie with knowledge of a neighborhood is as far as I can tell totally Normal.

If Quick were scum there is a possibility he would be unsure about that and not want to make that claim, which would make life harder for him. Since he did make that claim I suppose that didn't work, but I can see the post Hoctac calls out as more likely as a crumb than a slip.

Can people more familiar with the set-up trends on Mafiascum tell me if this sort of thing is normal? I'm feeling uneasy about Umlaut knowing that Quick was going to claim informed.

Might as well respond to this: I didn't know what Quick was going to claim, I just didn't want to come in and say "oh sure, Informed about a neighborhood is normal" in case Quick was scum trying to figure out quickly whether to fakeclaim that or not.

So you think he's town now?

LOL.

This looks sketch to me. If Hoctac is mafia, he's not ruining the game. Why is Umlaut's post disagreeable from a town!Quick perspective?

Quick!!!!!!!!!1 Do you townread or scumread me? Answer please.

I don't have a read on you. You are Null, just like you want to be. Congrats.

Yeah, Quick's take on the Hoctac slot doesn't vibe at all with his reaction to Hoctac casing him by outing the Hood.

Agreed with these posts.

Hi, I am not Klick.

Yes you are. The constant dismissing of any read against your predecessor as them not being you is sketch.

I agree it's bad, don't know that I agree it's sketch. Town can be bad.

See, here's the thing. Let's assume Quick is informed town and he knows the neighborhood immediately. How does he so quickly come to the conclusion that he should vote Hoctac, before reading the game? He just randomly chose a member of the hood and happened to come across a scum read of that player as he caught up? Nah, I don't buy it. Quick is mafia fam.

This is the post that changed my mind, actually, it is a hell of a coincidence if that's what it is. But thinking about it I have to wonder how Quick's being scum explains this any better? Why should he vote Hoctac immediately, just because he's in the neighborhood? There are a lot of people in the neighborhood.

I wouldn't say Quick has ignored questions about his role. He's been absent since the questions appeared. Also, I still don't see how town!Quick immediately gravitates towards a Hoctac vote over any other member of the hood, especially given that he hadn't read any content yet. I think you have to make far more concessions to say that Quick RNG'd his eventual scumread, and found him scummy every step of the way as town than as mafia.

Not commenting on whether he ignored questions about his role because he's answered them now. This is, I guess, the same point as last time, so I still like it, but it still needs clarification of why scum!Quick should do this thing that town!Quick shouldn't.

But Clidd insists that a player's post count variations between games is a legitimate meta read so I had to get back into my town range before Clidd applies that read to my slot.

As an aside from the Quick thing, I think it's slightly unlikely for scum to make a post like this that explicitly says "I'm doing this to be townread by someone" even if it's funny.

[Umlaut]

Quick, why would you reveal your information so quickly? There was no hammer on you. I was thinking this last night, why would an informed townie claim so quickly?

You realize Quick had pretty much no alternative but to claim Informed in response to Hoctac's case, right?

[Umlaut]

VOTE: brassherald

Can't make up my mind on Quick but one of brass/Zulfy is going to be scum whether Quick is or not.

Persivul is maybe probably just scum irrespective of other scums though; see my scumcase if you're not convinced.

I couldn't tell if you were serious or not because you immediately followed it with your towncase on Ame. But at any rate it wasn't much of a case IMO.

[Umlaut]

I like Valon's 860 a lot

What did you like about it? I feel like it's really obvious why town!Quick would have to claim when he did.

[Umlaut]

I can't tell if you're joking or not any more.

Persivul and Ame are the same slot

[Umlaut]

Unless you mean, how is it relevant whether you were serious? I suppose I could read the case and consider its merits without caring whether you are being entirely genuine in making it. I did that, and I think it's a very weak case and that Persivul's sort of derping along and not helping is NAI, and there's no real reason to scumread it.

pedit

oh wow, I would have pointed it out when you made the case if I'd realized you were actually confused and not just fucking around.

[Umlaut]

Actually I'm still not sure you're not fucking around. Kind of a hazard of your playstyle there.

[Umlaut]

I've been waiting for a good place to point this out but I haven't seen one, so I'll just drop it here as a giant non sequitur: assuming there is exactly one scum in the nhood (which I don't really assume but it's a useful case to consider), one's subjective odds as non-nhood town that a randomly chosen player is scum are the same whether that player is in or out of the nhood. 1/4 vs 2/8.

[Umlaut]

Why should you be dead by D2 if people are still wagoning you now and your "power" is pretty much exhausted now? You seem just as likely to make it to endgame as a mislynch candidate if you're town.

[Umlaut]

If that's your reason then shouldn't that be independent of whether your role was outed or not? You said "Now I'm dead" when you were outed, wouldn't you have just been dead all along?

[Umlaut]

I've had a number of good laughs this day but this was a good one, thanks.

By the way, I am also a fruit vender.

Town Informed Fruit Vendor who knows "there is a neighborhood consisting of these exact four players, at least one of which is scum"

This is quite a remarkable role

Intent: Quick

[Umlaut]

Person in hood: these people are in the hood.
Person in the hood 2: these people are in the hood.
You: --in the hood! See?! Told ya I'm informed townie! :crying_emoji:

Wait, this doesn't actually make sense

Do you think Quick is scum and someone in the nhood is scum

but

Quick doesn't know who's in the nhood?

[Umlaut]

well, I mean, obviously he and everyone knows now, but that he didn't know in advance of Hoctac's post?

[Umlaut]

pedit Umlaut just do it! I think he was just joking about the fruit vendor tho

I almost did, to be honest. (But looks like it wasn't a joke)

How about we wait till I can give fruit to someone?

Because that in no way confirms your alignment? Why would I wait for that?

[Umlaut]

Okay, someone else can hammer I guess.

VOTE: Quick
(L-1)

Why Cakez?

[Umlaut]

Why Cakez?

obvscum

Why is Cakez obvscum? Because it's not obv to me.

[Umlaut]

Zulfy, how sure are you that Hoctac is town? Because I think probably Hoctac is town, but I still have the thought bouncing around that this could all be The Most Complicated Scum Gambit Of All Time.

[Umlaut]

TMCSGOAL?

I forgot the L is silent in Ltime

[Umlaut]

Wagons are good. UNVOTE: Atari. VOTE: persivul.

This can die as well...

Thanks for reminding me.

Welp, that proves I am Scum I guess. GG nice playing with you all.

BTW, probably 60% of my posts can be ended with:

/s

Ah, the Trump defense.

Kind of regret not insta-hammering now.

[Umlaut]

How about you can be Town for putting me at L-1?

Good for me?

"I was being sarcastic" is an obvious fabrication and indicates you actually see a contradiction between your earlier posts and saying now that you never suspected Lucky, one that requires an explanation like that. Town!Quick should just be like "oh yeah I forgot about that" if anything.

[Umlaut]

Wagons are good. UNVOTE: Atari. VOTE: persivul.

This can die as well...

There is no world where this post is sarcasm and not voicing suspicion of Lucky.

[Umlaut]

Lynching in the hood is 1/4 - assuming 1 scum. Lynching outside of the hood is 2/8 (from a town PoV).

Come to think of it, you're in the 'hood, so from your own town PoV shouldn't these be 1/3 and 2/9 respectively?

[Umlaut]

Umlaut, you noticed earlier when Hoc lied about not knowing I was the Persi slot, yes? What do you think to be the town motivation for this? (Partially rhetorical)

If it's a lie, there is no town motivation. How do you know it's a lie? I forget who replaced whom all the time even when I take note of it at the time of the replacement. I actually double-checked you were Persi's replacement before saying that to him.

[Umlaut]

I mean, Hoctac has not exactly given me a warm towny feeling at any point in this game but I still hate Quick's claim and reactions to lynch pressure now more than I hate anything Hoctac is doing.

[Umlaut]

Sadly I don't really expect (in the predictive sense) that town players won't troll the town etc.

[Umlaut]

How about you can be Town for putting me at L-1?

This actually really hits me hard as desperate buddying/bargaining, Quick has been giving me easy townreads all day.

[Umlaut]

@Umlaut: I wasn't trying to convince you that you were scum - I was trying to show you that I wasn't. Is me conveying my alignment not useful information to you?

If you did convey your alignment that would be useful information, but what you said was

My post right before [748] had reads and a post, so why say anything at all if you're not going to reference it? Do you see how you could come off as scummily subjective?

which is inviting me to analyze whether my own behavior is likely to come off scummy. This (1) means you are saying you find it scummy, which is talking about my alignment and not yours, and (2) is not a useful thing for me to analyze in any case.

Idk why but I've found Looker's posts so wildly uninteresting that I've skipped them all. Reminder to go back and read them later.

What changed your mind about Quick if you didn't read anything?

Hard misrep here.

[Umlaut]

He flip flops on his read rather easily. In fact I have a quote below where he says he is town reading quick. So I don't see why someone would vote a town read.

How about you can be Town for putting me at L-1?

This actually really hits me hard as desperate buddying/bargaining,

Quick has been giving me easy townreads all day.

So why the vote on quick?

That sentence I bolded means: "Quick has been saying I am town, without really much case for that, all day." I can sort of see how you could read it the other way but in context I think it's clear I'm saying I'm seeing Quick's townread of me as buddying of someone who has been calling him town most of the day until recently.

I really have flip-flopped a lot on the slot, I feel like I've seen strong cases on both sides, but ultimately it takes a lot less coincidence for Quick to be scum I think. It's just very odd to have this progression where Hoctac is like "HE'S CONFIRMED SCUM! I mean unless he's an Informed Townie but is that even possible??" and then Quick turns out to be exactly the kind of Informed Townie who would make exactly the post Hoctac had called out. The only way I could see that would be if Hoctac were literally scum informed that there was an Informed Townie who knew about the neighborood and at that point we're into tinfoil hat territory (though I might want to look at some of Ircher's other setups to see just how much tinfoil is too much here).

[Umlaut]

@Ame

Remember when I asked you to explain your vote on Cakez, and you instead switched your vote to Hoctac and then explained that vote? Cool trick but I still want you to explain the Cakez read.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Quick

There's a neighborhood, right? Who is in it?

Me, brass, valoneast, Zulfy.

One of us is scum with Quick.

If you think there is 1 scum in the neighborhood and there are 3 of you in that group, it becomes a mason group at that point where you guys are almost considered all town. I think reducing that and forcing scum to consider whether to shot out or in the group of the neighborhood will makes things more harder for scum to win if we lynch scum in the neighborhood.

I have zero confidence that there wouldn't be two scum in the neighborhood. Ircher would certainly do that (see this setup proposal where he wanted to put an all-Mafia neighborhood in a mini, though the reviewers pretty much nixed that).

[Umlaut]

mini

micro, rather

[Umlaut]

If you start showing town motivation yeah
Instead of scum flailing 24/7

How about no. How about I was Scumhunting just fine until Hactoc made the worse post of the game.

And then you stopped?

I feel like town in Quick's position should be giving their reads and trying to get as much game solving in as they can, not telling us all how disappointing we are.

[Umlaut]

Yeah, it's totally my personal quirk to give my reads as town about to be lynched, no way I could extrapolate that to someone else.

[Umlaut]

Why qre you more interested in hunting outside the neighborhood then?
DO NOT HAMMER YET

That's a good point actually, a random lynch in the nhood should be strictly more likely to hit scum since the nhood is

at least

1/4 scum whereas the non-nhood is

at most

2/9 scum (so subjectively 2/8). But I don't think it's a big enough difference to override reads except maybe as a tiebreaker, and the incentive of clearing the other three neighbors if we lynch right doesn't actually work so there's no real mechanical benefit to hitting scum in vs. out of the nhood.

[Umlaut]

That said: Hoctac, assuming you're really vig, maybe you can help us narrow down the nhood tonight.

[Umlaut]

That said: Hoctac, assuming you're really vig, maybe you can help us narrow down the nhood tonight.

Or, you know, they could make the correct play and shoot me.

Let me know how that registers for you on a scale from 1-BS.

A+ scumhunting

[Umlaut]

Wait, actually

if we lynch the scummiest neighbor today and they flip green, then Hoctac can shoot the second scummiest one tonight
near-guarantee one of these flips red.

(unless roleblocker I guess, but we can worry about that tomorrow)

Hoctac, would you go along with this plan? Because if so we should like definitely lynch in the neighborhood.

[Umlaut]

• I'm assuming Quick has resigned himself to trolling.

Honestly what I'm seeing too, which is why I'm comfortable ending the day with a lynch there.

• @Umlaut: What did I misrep and are you Zulfy's protectorate?
  • Also, I was trying to give you a chance to explain yourself. If you didn't think it was scummy, you would've said so. Your defensiveness is unwarranted and peculiar.

You misrepped him as saying he hadn't read the thread when he said he skipped over your posts.

No, I was more interested in what that said about you than in what it said about Zulfy.

I notice for once you didn't link any of the posts you were talking about when referencing my defensiveness and your letting me explain myself, so I'll quote our discussion again here for everyone's reference:

Spoiler: Umlaut and Looker's much ado about nothing

@Umlaut: What was bad about my post? Specifically, what was worse about it than the Quick post it was referencing, which you didn't mention?

Quick's post had a vote and some sort of read, and yours had neither, so yours is 100% worse.

What exactly was Quick's "read"? Other than I'm dumb?

I didn't say Quick's post was like brilliant scumhunting (you may notice I'm voting him now), but it appeared to me he was saying you were fabricating a reason to scumread him by feigning inability to understand his posts.

My post right before that one had reads and a post, so why say anything at all if you're not going to reference it? Do you see how you could come off as scummily

subjective

selective?

@Umlaut: And you bought Quick's assertion that I was fabricating a scumread despite what I referenced in the post I voted him?

I'm just trying to figure out why you were on Quick's side.

I don't know, your response to the post bothered me whereas your previous post I just barely cared about at all when I read it. If you think that's scummy of me then don't try to convince me of that, vote me or something.

I wouldn't say I bought [Quick's assertion], but people do that sort of thing all the time ("you can't possibly fail to understand me because I'm everything I write is infinitely clear, so you must be scum") so I didn't make anything of it.

Also your predecessor was pretty suspect so you kind of have to carry that, whereas I was townreading Klick/Quick at the time, so I'm not going to deny that could influence my reading.

So, pretty much the

same

thing as Quick: "Shut up and don't talk to me."

I know I'm not scum. You're not going to convince me I'm scum. If you think I'm scum then tell someone else, not me.

I wasn't trying to convince you that you were scum - I was trying to show you that I wasn't. Is me conveying my alignment not useful information to you?

Some thoughts on this discussion:

1. This whole thing is literally about the two words "Bad post" that I wrote about his post. It was a bad post, it was a weird and unnatural-looking response to being voted.
   
2. I explained three separate times what I meant by that and why I did it, so I did explain myself.
   
3. Looker can't decide whether he is trying to show me he isn't scum, or presenting some kind of accusation that I should defend myself against.
   
4. The tone of "Don't you see how that can come off as scummy?" is that of someone who knows I'm town and is trying to explain why people are scumreading me, not that of someone trying to sort me or defend themselves, so it doesn't fit into either of Looker's purported motives here.
   
5. I'm not going to bother arguing whether or not I was defensive, read the quotes and tell me if I was.
   
6. At no point did I stop engaging Looker, I literally continued explaining my reasoning immediately after the post he quoted in 850, so "Shut up and don't talk to me" is yet another misrep.

I think Looker is scum trying to work himself up to putting me in his scumpile and/or voting me.

[Umlaut]

Hoctac, would you go along with this plan? Because if so we should like definitely lynch in the neighborhood.

I'd like to hear back from Hoctac about this before hammer, actually

[Umlaut]

Also, since I think I'm the only one who hasn't said it yet, farside is town. Pretty sure scum making the "wait everyone hold up, Umlaut answer my questions" move would then follow it up with a scumread of whatever I answered.

[Umlaut]

No, you have 180 posts and I'm lazy. Care to link the relevant part?

[Umlaut]

Farside's reads look like the reads that scum fabricate.

Farside > Cakez > Hoc

Okay, maybe I'm not the only one who hasn't said farside is town

[Umlaut]

So the answer is no, you don't care to link to the relevant part.

[Umlaut]

Here is my Town Core ATM...

Umlaut
Lucky
farside

Okay, this post exists, and?

[Umlaut]

Actually I'm pretty sure I'm being trolled.

I changed my mind, farside, I'm fine with a hammer.

[Umlaut]

You said you were the first person to TR farside. Or am I misunderstanding something?

[Umlaut]

We have 8 days. And I haven't had the chance to catch-up. Please do not hammer yet. Someone should unvote actually.

I'm increasingly confident Quick is scum and I'm not interested in letting him off the hook, I've seen too many excellent early wagons on scum disintegrate because "it's too soon to lynch someone" and then be impossible to reintegrate a week later. So no I'm not going to unvote.

Can you substantiate your Cakez read for me? Because I've felt town about him all game and if I'm honest it's more for tone/gut reasons than anything else. I'm open to hearing an argument that my read is wrong there but you haven't made one.

[Umlaut]

Ill hammer if needed.

Actually I'm pretty sure I'm being trolled.

I changed my mind, farside, I'm fine with a hammer.

I would rather hold off. The wagon on quick is something i just want to look through. See again who voted and why.
Plus it pains me not to vote my strongest scum read.
So give me a day or 2.

Translation: I wanted to look townie by holding off the hammer that was promised by Ame without actually holding it off. But now that she isn't I have to look townie again.

Actually that does ping me. But in the hypothetical reality where farside is scum I'd interpret it the other way around: that she didn't want to hammer but wanted the credit for being willing to do so, and didn't expect me to be like "yeah, do it" within a couple minutes of her offering.

[Umlaut]

Ame, why did you say "I'll hammer later today" if you wanted to catch up before hammering

and

thought it was too early?

[Umlaut]

VOTE: farside

I think that's farside22's first vote of the game.

---

• @Umlaut: I think you might be right. I'm very self-centric and assumed the only thing Zulfy could've read to change his thoughts on Quick were the posts I'd written.
  
• @farside22: So definitely end of discussion. Got it.

Would dayvig this if I could.

[Umlaut]

I mean I probably really wouldn't, but right now there is a wagon at L-1 with several people ready to see a hammer, on a player Looker hasn't so much as offered a read on, and his thoughts on that are "hunh, first Farside vote!"

[Umlaut]

He voted for you, he didn't give a read on you.

[Umlaut]

Also, his response to my excellent case that he's scum is "yeah, I'm just so self-centered I didn't notice anyone else posted but me" which is both BS and the first time he doesn't seem to want to continue poking at this back-and-forth with me.

[Umlaut]

To avoid any suggestion that I am quietly ignoring your questions I'm going to just loudly announce that I'm ignoring them.

[Umlaut]

the Lucky kill is weird

Kind of feel the same, but who would you expect instead?

I want to vote brass but I'm a bit less (L–1)-happy today.

[Umlaut]

Just following along and phoneposting on the fly but I have to say I find Cakez’ misread here very hard to credit.

Still want to see Ame’s case for Cakez scum based on D1, though. I get you’re busy and catching up but if you think he’s obvscum you must have read

something

, what did you see?

[Umlaut]

spoiler alert - Ame doesn't have one

Why do you say this? If you think Ame is lying then you think she's scum, so case her for me pls.

[Umlaut]

I am a 1-shot cop. Persivul claimed Novice so that he could live through N1.

How do you know why Persivul claimed Novice

[Umlaut]

But whatever, if Ame has a guilty.then we lynch the guilty obviously.

[Umlaut]

Ame is probably doing a reaction test.

clidd, I suspect you are not a human being but an early, poorly-trained iteration of MafiaExplainBot. Is this correct?

[Umlaut]

Ame, if you're 1-shot and you've used your shot then why shouldn't you be alive?

[Umlaut]

Not voting until Ame explicitly gives her results (assuming she is planning to do that today), but consider my vote spiritually on Looker.

[Umlaut]

Ame

pls

[Umlaut]

@Reundo

We miss you, please write

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Cakez

[Umlaut]

You investigated Brass, got a guilty, and immediately voted Cakez?

[Umlaut]

Then outed as one-shot cop but didn't out your one result?

[Umlaut]

Which, again, was a guilty. On a person you weren't voting

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Ame

[Umlaut]

I think Looker is townie enough
Even if Ame is not playing to scum meta her play is too atrocious to be town

I think I disagree that there's a lower bound on how badly town can play.

@Zulfy

Why should I unvote Ame?

[Umlaut]

This post was supposed to be to explain why so but after reading it again I guess I sort of do actually

UNVOTE: Ame

[Umlaut]

Hey there, new people.

The thought occurred to me a few moments ago that the situation is now reversed from yesterday. I highly dought the neighborhood contains all three scum in which case we can safely say there is at least one scum

out

of the neighborhood, whereas there may not be one in it at all. So while we can still scumhunt within the neighborhood we should probably be lynching outside of it.

[Umlaut]

Hello. What is the know mechanical info? Claims etc.

There is a neighborhood consisting of SirCakez, Clidd, Brass and Auro
I am a 1-shot cop with a claimed guilty on SirCakez
Brass flipped scum (goon I think).

when I say "all over the place" stuff like this is what I'm referring to

Substantiating your "all over the place" statement with a post made after you gave it is kind of not the best, can you point to something else?

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Looker

I will confess I have not really given much thought to this game lately, but I still think my reasons for suspecting Looker on D1 were sound and he has not exactly done anything to make me feel better about him since.

[Umlaut]

I'm not really interested in the leading wagons right now. I skimmed back through SirCakez' ISO and I still don't really see him as scum. I'd still most prefer Looker but it doesn't look like that's happening (and I think I've already made that case as well as I can).

It's getting close to deadline here. I could do B.S. or clidd, any interest?

[Umlaut]

Actually I'm not really so sure about clidd, it's pretty rare for scum to have something like 50% more posts than anyone else in the game. Might need to check clidd's meta on that.

[Umlaut]

Actually I'm not really so sure about clidd, it's pretty rare for scum to have something like 50% more posts than anyone else in the game. Might need to check clidd's meta on that.

Who would you consider the partner in the Scum!Clidd scenario ?

I haven't thought about that, really. I don't think looking for those kinds of associatives without a flip is useful.

[Umlaut]

Has anyone brought up the fact that SirCakez showed suspicion on brass' slot from the very beginning of the game and the very first thing he did Day 2 was vote him, putting him first on the lynch wagon?

Atarashi bothers me a little bit but I don't know how to describe it.

I think it's the way they are approaching the game. It's like overtly methodical townie. Like their whole ISO is questions and little answers. It feels unnatural.

brassherald is not improving my read on the Atarashi slot. Hate that entrance.

brassherald is not improving my read on the Atarashi slot. Hate that entrance.

I'm sorry you don't like my stand up specials, I also do magic.

I give you a 2/5 stars on netflix

TRs on Valon, Lucky, farside (she doesn't push me here as scum I think), Hoctac (I think his lack of caring about people's reads on his playstyle is town), Ame/Persivul
Nullish on Looker/Ragman, Reundo (these people don't have enough content or I'm unable to read what they have)
Scumlean on Zulfy, Umlaut
SRs on Quick/Klick, maybe brassherald/Atarashi dependent on meta

I think brass is a good candidate for scum in this apparent hood

zulfy can be town for now

(Included this because it's rejecting what would probably be the only alternative to the lynching brass given my general read of town sentiment at that time)

VOTE: brass
Should go after the hood now that we know Quick was telling the truth

(This also substantiates that SirCakez was confused about what was already known regarding the 'hood)

Brass is basically scum claiming.

help me bus then

I mean yes, busing exists and this isn't proof that Cakez is town, but it seems like no one has mentioned it at all even if only to dismiss it. Looking at how brass self-hammered when he did, I have to ask, was the brass lynch such a foregone conclusion that that was a good scum move if brass' buddy SirCakez could have just found some reason to move his vote?

[Umlaut]

Prodge. But also

So after I flip town, where are you going next?
Trying to get in your mind here.

If you flip town, I will discard what I have inferred so far on my PoE/solve and individually reevaluate each slot depending on the NK.

If Cakez is town this looks like an excuse to move pretty much anywhere tomorrow.

[Umlaut]

Hey guys can we maybe wagon some scum today?

Out-of-the-neighborhood players: {Looker, Umlaut, clidd, Blatant Scum}

Honestly I would lynch any of these except myself, but I still want to start with Looker. I don't understand at all the pass he's gotten this game.

VOTE: Looker

Hoc can you put Cakez at L-1 for claim?

VOTE: Cakez

Hoctac, why did you go along with this?

[Umlaut]

Adding the new flips to Ircher's vote history, and removing flipped players from the list, and changing all names to the most recent player in the slot:

Day 1

Blatant Scum (1): Looker (190)
Umlaut (12):

Ame

(7) →

LuckyLuciano

(15) → Hoctac (115) →

LuckyLuciano

(125) → (Null) (367) → Zulfy (380) → Looker (463) → clidd (566) → (Null) (720) →

Quick

(836) →

brassherald

(866) →

Quick

(998*)
clidd (6):

LuckyLuciano

(30) → (Null) (46) → Hoctac (86) → (Null) (208) → Looker (214) → (Null) (381)
Hoctac (5):

Ame

(10) →

LuckyLuciano

(128) →

Quick

(135) →

brassherald

(719) →

Quick

(839)
Zulfy (5): Umlaut (22) →

LuckyLuciano

(38) →

Quick

(704) →

brassherald

(706) →

Quick

(956*)
Looker (2): LuckyLuciano (127) →

Quick

(405) → (Null) (576) → Hoctac (673) →

Quick

(733) →

brassherald

(841)
Auro (3): Umlaut (23) → (Null) (274) →

Quick

(891)

Day 2

Blatant Scum (0):
Umlaut (0):
clidd (0):
Hoctac (1):

brassherald

(1192)
Zulfy (1):

brassherald

(1209)
Looker (1):

brassherald

(1250*)
Auro (1):

brassherald

(1195)

Day 3

Blatant Scum (1):

SirCakez

(1656)
Umlaut (3):

Ame

(1428) → (Null) (1518) → Looker (1577)
clidd (2): Reundo (1395) →

SirCakez

(1470)
Hoctac (3):

Ame

(1294) → (Null) (1295) →

SirCakez

(1729*)
Zulfy (7):

Ame

(1262) → clidd (1394) →

Ame

(1433) →

SirCakez

(1467) → Looker (1488) → (Null) (1501) →

SirCakez

(1512)
Looker (3): Hoctac (1296) →

SirCakez

(1404) →

Ame

(1504)
Auro (0):

I'm not exactly a master of VCA, but I'll see if I can glean something from this; and if not, maybe someone else can.

[Umlaut]

Just noticed: some of the "number of vote" counts are wrong in the above because I consolidated the votes made by players in the same slot, but forgot to fox those numbers.

[Umlaut]

forgot to

fix

those numbers.

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Looker

Are you claiming Traffic Analyst, clidd?

[Umlaut]

Yeah, that's what I'm seeing, just had to make sure I hadn't forgotten someone. So the possibilities are

• I'm scum, or
  
  
• you're lying, or
  
• all three scum are in the neighborhood.

I find it hard to believe that all three scum are in the neighborhood but I also find it hard to believe you as scum would 1v1 me like this at any time before lylo, so I need to think.

[Umlaut]

This really doesn't feel like a scum move right now :/

[Umlaut]

In all fairness, clidd, I don't think there is any reason you would have died last night such that your being alive requires an explanation.

[Umlaut]

I honestly don't mind if I get lynched today for this as long as I'm first satisfied that your claim is true. If it is, we have a decent chance of successfully picking the one town neighbor out of the three and lynching the other two.

[Umlaut]

For you to be town, the hood would have to have been assigned 3 scums and 1 town, which is basically almost a second scum PT (doesn't make sense).

I find it surprising too, but looking at it a certain way it would make sense to weaken a Traffic Analyst specifically by putting all the scum in a neighborhood together. That along with a 1-Shot Cop would actually be pretty balanced.

[Umlaut]

I sincerely hope you're town here just so you can cry when you see me flip green.

[Umlaut]

Am I sure I'm town? Yes.

Am I sure I'm going to get lynched over this? Less so, but also pretty much yes.

[Umlaut]

Hoctac, Auro and Zulfy --> Are you guys there ? I would like opinions on who is scum inside the hood.

I'd like this too, actually.

[Umlaut]

1307 isn't much of a crumb. It doesn't say anything about traffic or analyzing or talking that might indicate that these are anything other than changes in your reads. And there's this:

Evidently, these two reads can change completely depending on the actions of the successors (Looker / Ame). In the case of Looker, I currently have a problem with the formatting of his posts and I don't feel that much transparency coming from him. My problem with Ame is the lack of information on her role that is leaving me completely in the dark.

Why would you say your reads might change when you have hard innos on them?

[Umlaut]

If you wrote something like "After some analysis I realized Looker is town" then I wouldn't dispute that it was a crumb and pretty obviously one for this role specifically, but all you did was say you think they're town.

[Umlaut]

But I still don't see why scum would 1v1 me here when they're not really in a bad position. I don't think clidd was about to get lynched or anything.

[Umlaut]

I have zero confidence that there wouldn't be two scum in the neighborhood. Ircher would certainly do that (see this setup proposal where he wanted to put an all-Mafia neighborhood in a mini, though the reviewers pretty much nixed that).

This is why I'm surprised that a setup would have a neighborhood with all three scum in it. But it's also why I can believe Ircher would

propose

a setup with a neighborhood having all three scum in it, and maybe find a way to make it acceptable to the reviewer(s).

[Umlaut]

Hoctac, Auro and Zulfy --> Are you guys there ? I would like opinions on who is scum inside the hood.

We're going to use today to scumhunt Umlaut's partner.

I want to townread this but I could really take it either way:

• It seems pro-town to, instead of just saying "CONFSCUM" and voting me, try to make sure we get in a full, productive day.
  
• But if you're scum who knows I'm town, then you are encouraging the town to spend their day on the fundamentally useless exercise of finding my nonexistent partner.

[Umlaut]

July 2018, how did you find that ?

You don't have any posts on that topic, how did you find it ?

I specifically went looking for Ircher's past reviews when the Neighbor-Informed-etc. claims started flying around on day 1, so I could get an idea of just how complicated a setup I was in for.

[Umlaut]

Oh wow, I didn't even remember this post in Ircher's review:

I think we MIGHT be able to get it to work if we added a town neighbor.

[Umlaut]

Another review of an Ircher setup: Micro Normal review, June 2019

So like.

If you were to run this setup blind, 100 times, maaaaybe it would have a reasonable winrate.

Maybe.

Like, the big question is, will town trust that the Loud Mailmen are town? Will they, in the knowledge that this setup is balanced, assume that the Loud Mailmen are essentially Town Neighborizers?

If they do, sure, this is a fine setup. If they don't, well..... I don't think it's good enough.

Ircher has a history of setups designed to mess with meta-based expectations about neighborhoods and the like. I think the most parsimonious explanation for what I'm seeing today is that clidd is simply telling the truth, and that this is a setup doing exactly that.

[Umlaut]

Adding additional colors here:

magenta

for "in the neighborhood",

cyan

for "out of the neighborhood"

Day 1

Hoctac

(5):

Ame

(10) →

LuckyLuciano

(128) →

Quick

(135) →

brassherald

(719) →

Quick

(839)

Zulfy

(5):

Umlaut

(22) →

LuckyLuciano

(38) →

Quick

(704) →

brassherald

(706) →

Quick

(956*)

Auro

(3):

Umlaut

(23) → [null] (274) →

Quick

(891)

Blatant Scum

(1):

Looker

(190)

Umlaut

(12):

Ame

(7) →

LuckyLuciano

(15) →

Hoctac

(115) →

LuckyLuciano

(125) → [null] (367) →

Zulfy

(380) →

Looker

(463) →

clidd

(566) → [null] (720) →

Quick

(836) →

brassherald

(866) →

Quick

(998*)

clidd

(6):

LuckyLuciano

(30) → [null] (46) →

Hoctac

(86) → [null] (208) →

Looker

(214) → [null] (381)

Looker

(6):

LuckyLuciano

(127) →

Quick

(405) → [null] (576) →

Hoctac

(673) →

Quick

(733) →

brassherald

(841)

Day 2

Hoctac

(1):

brassherald

(1192)

Zulfy

(1):

brassherald

(1209)

Auro

(1):

brassherald

(1195)

Blatant Scum

(0):

Umlaut

(0):

clidd

(0):

Looker

(1):

brassherald

(1250*)

Day 3

Hoctac

(3):

Ame

(1294) → [null] (1295) →

SirCakez

(1729*)

Zulfy

(7):

Ame

(1262) →

clidd

(1394) →

Ame

(1433) →

SirCakez

(1467) →

Looker

(1488) → [null] (1501) →

SirCakez

(1512)

Auro

(0):

Blatant Scum

(1):

SirCakez

(1656)

Umlaut

(3):

Ame

(1428) → [null] (1518) →

Looker

(1577)

clidd

(2):

Blatant Scum

(1395) →

SirCakez

(1470)

Looker

(3):

Hoctac

(1296) →

SirCakez

(1404) →

Ame

(1504)

[Umlaut]

So, you thought I was scum... but would have been less sure of it... if I had then reacted as you expected?

[Umlaut]

clidd: "If Umlaut is scum, and he is, I expect he'll display an emotional reaction to this."

Umlaut doesn't display an emotional reaction

clidd: "Aha, he defied my expectations, just like scum would!"

[Umlaut]

Um

Is that even a normal role?

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game

I don't see it anywhere in this list.

[Umlaut]

That is correct. I am a traitor. I don't have any PT.

Er

[Umlaut]

Did you just claim scum or am I missing something here

[Umlaut]

What if

clidd is telling the truth
and
B.S. is a Mafia Traitor?

Then it might be possible there's only one more scum in the neighborhood after all.

[Umlaut]

clidd, you are quite unpleasant to play with. This is true regardless of your alignment in this game. You might want to look into that.

[Umlaut]

I don"t really believe Hoctac is a vig, and if I did I would want him to shoot you after that ridiculous fakeclaim. Also, as a rule, I am deeply distrustful of plans starting with no-lynching outside of mylo.

I'm going to go make something for dinner and then come back to try and solve this.

[Umlaut]

I am a dreamer. That is basically a weakened rolecop - I get to know one ability type my target can perform, excluding nightkill.
If I visit doctor, I get protective. If I visit JOAT (cop, doctor), I get protective or investigative (50% for each result). If I visit mafia goon, I get nothing. If I visit 1-shot cop who used his ablity, I get nothing.

N1: Farside - nothing
N2: Looker - nothing
N3: Umlaut - nothing

This semi-clears Umlaut, because a goon is dead and I except mafia to not have >1 goons.

Why would you "semi-clear" me here when having followed me does nothing of the sort, but only shows I didn't commit the nightkill?

Also, why would you assume Mafia doesn't have more than one goon?

[Umlaut]

Hypothetical scenario: my buddy is a Mafia 1-Shot Rolestopper. Not a Goon. Last night there was no real need to rolestop anyone in particular, so my buddy performed the kill.

How does your analysis rule that case out?

[Umlaut]

From the page clidd cited without reading:

A Traitor is considered Normal on mafiascum.net, as long as it:

• ...
  
• is endgamed if all other Mafia are dead

That's a good point, Auro, and one I didn't consider. It means we should still be lynching inside the neighborhood (once you're convinced I'm town, possibly by the green text you see after flipping me). That said, I much prefer the 2/3 odds I was imagining to the 1/3 odds we get if B.S. is a Traitor.

[Umlaut]

...actually, nah, it's 1/3 either way, because we'd have to get both scum.

[Umlaut]

We only have one mislynch, right? I don't see an auto-win here that only requires one possible mislynch.

[Umlaut]

It seems clear to me from the circumstances under which it was made that clidd's claim is true, and I hope that's clear to everyone else too.

I don't see any way to argue that it doesn't incriminate me (beyond the evidence I've already offered that Ircher would definitely design a setup with all scum in the neighborhood), which puts me in any kind of proposed auto-win lynch path. I know I'm town, so there's your mislynch.

That leaves a neighborhood of 3, where at least 1 is town. Unless one of them can be eliminated mechanically, we don't have an auto-win.

[Umlaut]

Hey me and my neighbors are not going to be voting unless it is unanimous. Just so everyone knows.

Why not?

[Umlaut]

I know you asked clidd, not me, but:

I think it's more likely Hoctac than Zulfy, but there's every possibility it's both. I'd be very surprised if it were Auro.

[Umlaut]

Wait a second. Wait a second.

If there's a traitor, then there's almost certainly only one more fully-fledged scum, and clidd's N2 and N3 results are meaningless because scum are no longer capable of private communication (unless they happen to be in the 'hood).

[Umlaut]

That would mean the only one cleared is Looker.

Though if there's a traitor it would have to be B.S., who is clidd's only other clear... so this doesn't actually make things any worse.

[Umlaut]

Yes, that is why we were discussing the traitor assumption right?

I mean, it had occurred to me that B.S. could be a traitor but not that B.S. could just be the mafioso. That makes things messier.

[Umlaut]

Traitor is perfectly Normal, it's just a role, not a special mechanic.

I'm going to have to make up my mind whether 1-Shot Cop + Traffic Analyst + Follower + Informed Fruit Vendor + neighborhood with 1 town, 3 scum is actually a balanced setup, because if it is then I believe that is the setup, but if not then B.S. is scum.

[Umlaut]

(meaning not necessarily "perfectly balanced" but "no more than about 10% unbalanced")