Mini Normal 2139: No Flavor Allowed - Game Over

[Umlaut]

"Why would Hoctac bring that possibility up for him at all?" and wished he hadn't

This is a good point. I should've feigned ignorance about it. I only thought of it literally as I typed that sentence in the post. wHoOpS

I'm more concerned that having thought of it at all you just kind of threw it in your post without it giving you any pause as to whether your case was solid or not, you just sort of waved it off in the same sentence.

[valoneast]

I would assume so since that is what my role PM says.

Wait, I just realized this, your PM literally says. "There is at least one Scum in the hood", paraphrasing obviously. That's your role?

... If so I take back my 70% math calculation, I must've looked like an idiot for saying that.

[Umlaut]

What's the meta on multiple scum in a neighborhood, btw? Still trying to think through all the possibilities in the setup.

[Umlaut]

Wait, I just realized this, your PM literally says. "There is at least one Scum in the hood", paraphrasing obviously. That's your role?

... If so I take back my 70% math calculation, I must've looked like an idiot for saying that.

Okay so this is lock town.

[Umlaut]

@Hoctac: Who is in your neighborhood?

Atarashi, valonhost, zulfy.

Correct.

Wait, is this all part of your information? You were informed that there is a neighborhood consisting of Hoctac, Atarashi, valoneast, and Zulfy,

and

that one of them is scum? Is there anything else you were informed about?

[valoneast]

Okay so this is lock town.

Whats your thought process there?

[Umlaut]

Okay so this is lock town.

Whats your thought process there?

I mean, I thought you were probably town anyway

and

you're in a neighborhood with three other people at every one of whom is a better suspect than you are. But if that weren't enough, I just don't see you as scum failing to understand an enemy's power role hard enough to post something like "70% chance there is scum in the neighborhood, not 100%" only to take it back a couple pages later, and I don't see you faking it either.

(I actually thought you were saying there was a 30% chance Quick was just lying

and

there were in fact no scum in the nhood, which I thought was a weirdly high probability to assign to that but whatever)

[Umlaut]

Wait, is this all part of your information? You were informed that there is a neighborhood consisting of Hoctac, Atarashi, valoneast, and Zulfy, and that one of them is scum? Is there anything else you were informed about?

Quoting again because this just seems like an awful lot of detailed information to hand someone in a role PM.

[Looker]

VOTE: Hoctac

for ~reasons~

No one is going to join me on Hactoc so I will go somewhere else.

This seems spicy enough I guess...

VOTE: Zulfy

What were your "~reasons~"? Also, if you're informed that there's scum in the neighborhood, why would you back down when there's resistance to your target?

The first rule of fight club is you do not talk about fight club.

1. Atarashi sub informed me they didn't want to vote there when I asked them, "Do you have any good reasons not to vote there?" before he disappeared.
2. One Scum AT LEAST in the Neighborhood so I thought I would pick someone else from there that I could see as Scum.

Then Atarashi slot disappears. Then Hactoc makes the worst post of the game if they are Town and an even worse posts if they are Scum and the rest is history.

• I don't understand what fight club has to do with anything
  
• Why does Atarashi's opinion dictate where you put your vote? What is your connection with that slot?
  
• Which one did you see as scum initially? Hoctac or Zulfy? If Hoctac, why move your vote? If Zulfy, why not vote him originally?
  
• I don't understand the "history" - which post of Hoctac's was the worst?

P-Edit: I am voting for you because someone in your neighborhood didn't want to to vote for Hactoc.

How do the actions of two parties indicate a tertiary as scum? Why wouldn't you vote for Hoctac or the individual who refused to vote for Hoctac?

I think brass is a good candidate for scum in this apparent hood

Thanks for the vote of confidence.

you're in it too?

How is SirCakez's suspicion of brassherald a vote of confidence for Quick?

VOTE: brassherald

I shall sheep Ame who is sheeping farside.

:taps head:

Would you agree to a Hoctac>Ame>Farside lynch chain?

---

• Sorry, I'm still trying to catch up.

---

• Hello, clidd

VOTE: Quick

[clidd]

720-> I like how you don't admit that you have absolutely no reason to suspect me and that your vote was purely emotional. You just want my slot dead, regardless of my role.

[Umlaut]

Yeah, when you want someone dead the best way to do that is to say they're not a good lynch

[clidd]

Hey, Looker, I rescued from memory: we played together in january, Micro 918.

[clidd]

Yeah, when you want someone dead the best way to do that is to say they're not a good lynch

Uh, ok.

[Umlaut]

I mean maybe I do want your slot dead a little because I'm sick of the gifs and also because I despair of ever sorting you decisively short of that. You'd be a better cop target or something though.

[Ircher]

Day 1 VC #21

Umlaut (0):
clidd (0):
Hoctac (1): brassherald (645)
Zulfy (0):
Ame (0):
Looker (2): Reundo (190), LuckyLuciano (358)
valoneast (0):

brassherald (5): farside22 (633), Ame (648), Zulfy (706), Quick (714), Hoctac (719)

LuckyLuciano (0):
farside22 (0):
Quick (2): SirCakez (292), Looker (733)
SirCakez (0):
Not Voting (3): valoneast (274), clidd (381), Umlaut (720)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch a player.

This phase will end on May 19, 2020 1:00 PM EDT (GMT-4:00) or in (expired on 2020-05-19 13:00:00).

Moderator Notes

1. If you have regular weekend V/LA, you must either notify me each time or set V/LA tags each time.
2. This game will use a combination of manual and automated votecounts. (The automated ones are made using MathBlade's Vote Scrubber.) I will mainly start by posting an automated votecount and then edit in a manual one later. This allows me to spot errors in the automated votecount as well as build the voting history for the game.
3.

Please note the prod timers. You will be prodded after 32 hours on Tuesday-Friday.

[valoneast]

Okay so this is lock town.

Whats your thought process there?

I mean, I thought you were probably town anyway

and

you're in a neighborhood with three other people at every one of whom is a better suspect than you are. But if that weren't enough, I just don't see you as scum failing to understand an enemy's power role hard enough to post something like "70% chance there is scum in the neighborhood, not 100%" only to take it back a couple pages later, and I don't see you faking it either.

(I actually thought you were saying there was a 30% chance Quick was just lying

and

there were in fact no scum in the nhood, which I thought was a weirdly high probability to assign to that but whatever)

K, I just like to hear people's reasoning when they "clear" me, and I realized that I haven't been doing enough in this game. I've been taught that you can never trust anybody in this game, so it's good to get reasons why people clear you in their heads.

And haha, no, I literally just misread what Quick was saying. Math wise, if you choose a random group of four people, with a 3/13 ratio, chances of choosing all town are (10/13) * (9/12) * (8/11) * (7/10) = roughly 30%. So 70% chance of there it containing scum.

Btw, I've been thinking about that more, on the off chance that Quick is lying!Scum, what does he have to gain? Prior to this claim there was a wagon on his slot, if Hoatac's reveal trigger to the scum that there is a neighbourhood, a quick false!Claim to being an informed townie stating that there is a scum amongst them would likely generate 4 mislynches. I looked at the timestamp, he had an hour before making his move, and his vote was on hoatac out of "reasons" already in literally the first vote of the game. However, this is really unlikely, and probably an even MORE unlikely scenario then Hoatac's claim that Zulfy/Brass leaked info to Quick's slot. But this gambit only works if NO SCUM is in this hood. So... 30% chance that he'll make this play if no scum were in the hood.

Super unlikely, but just a thought to keep in mind.

[valoneast]

INFORMED TOWNIE

I'm a bit of a layman in mechanical matters, but is your skill similar to what it says on the wiki ?

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Informed

I would assume so since that is what my role PM says.

So what does your role PM say exactly? Like, which piece of the puzzle does it give you?

[Umlaut]

And haha, no, I literally just misread what Quick was saying. Math wise, if you choose a random group of four people, with a 3/13 ratio, chances of choosing all town are (10/13) * (9/12) * (8/11) * (7/10) = roughly 30%. So 70% chance of there it containing scum.

Off-topic: this is a bad way of thinking about the odds, because the presence and number of scum in the neighborhood are chosen as part of the setup design and not at random. If you really wanted to reason about the priors here, you'd be better off looking at past Normal games with a neighborhood to get an empirical probability.

Btw, I've been thinking about that more, on the off chance that Quick is lying!Scum, what does he have to gain? Prior to this claim there was a wagon on his slot, if Hoatac's reveal trigger to the scum that there is a neighbourhood, a quick false!Claim to being an informed townie stating that there is a scum amongst them would likely generate 4 mislynches. I looked at the timestamp, he had an hour before making his move, and his vote was on hoatac out of "reasons" already in literally the first vote of the game. However, this is really unlikely, and probably an even MORE unlikely scenario then Hoatac's claim that Zulfy/Brass leaked info to Quick's slot. But this gambit only works if NO SCUM is in this hood. So... 30% chance that he'll make this play if no scum were in the hood.

I just can't see any scenario where there are no scum in the nhood, even if Quick is scum, because it would mean that the 'slip' was a total coincidence

and

Quick would know that. I don't buy the idea that Quick would see a flawed case on him and lean into it, claiming Informed and effectively confessing to the slip/crumb, if the case is just wrong and he can say as much.

[valoneast]

Off-topic: this is a bad way of thinking about the odds, because the presence and number of scum in the neighborhood are chosen as part of the setup design and not at random. If you really wanted to reason about the priors here, you'd be better off looking at past Normal games with a neighborhood to get an empirical probability.

Thumbs up, However I've only got math to lean on, as I don't know much about setups and such on this site.

[valoneast]

I just can't see any scenario where there are no scum in the nhood, even if Quick is scum, because it would mean that the 'slip' was a total coincidence and Quick would know that. I don't buy the idea that Quick would see a flawed case on him and lean into it, claiming Informed and effectively confessing to the slip/crumb, if the case is just wrong and he can say as much.

Is that from past experiences? When there is a hood, has it historically been more than 70% that at least scum is inside it?

[valoneast]

I just can't see any scenario where there are no scum in the nhood, even if Quick is scum, because it would mean that the 'slip' was a total coincidence and Quick would know that. I don't buy the idea that Quick would see a flawed case on him and lean into it, claiming Informed and effectively confessing to the slip/crumb, if the case is just wrong and he can say as much.

Sorry, I got lost quickly, in this case what was the "slip" incident, which post?

[Quick]

VOTE: Hoctac

for ~reasons~

No one is going to join me on Hactoc so I will go somewhere else.

This seems spicy enough I guess...

VOTE: Zulfy

What were your "~reasons~"? Also, if you're informed that there's scum in the neighborhood, why would you back down when there's resistance to your target?

The first rule of fight club is you do not talk about fight club.

1. Atarashi sub informed me they didn't want to vote there when I asked them, "Do you have any good reasons not to vote there?" before he disappeared.
2. One Scum AT LEAST in the Neighborhood so I thought I would pick someone else from there that I could see as Scum.

Then Atarashi slot disappears. Then Hactoc makes the worst post of the game if they are Town and an even worse posts if they are Scum and the rest is history.

• I don't understand what fight club has to do with anything
  
• Why does Atarashi's opinion dictate where you put your vote? What is your connection with that slot?
  
• Which one did you see as scum initially? Hoctac or Zulfy? If Hoctac, why move your vote? If Zulfy, why not vote him originally?
  
• I don't understand the "history" - which post of Hoctac's was the worst?

P-Edit: I am voting for you because someone in your neighborhood didn't want to to vote for Hactoc.

How do the actions of two parties indicate a tertiary as scum? Why wouldn't you vote for Hoctac or the individual who refused to vote for Hoctac?

I think brass is a good candidate for scum in this apparent hood

Thanks for the vote of confidence.

you're in it too?

How is SirCakez's suspicion of brassherald a vote of confidence for Quick?

VOTE: brassherald

I shall sheep Ame who is sheeping farside.

:taps head:

Would you agree to a Hoctac>Ame>Farside lynch chain?

---

• Sorry, I'm still trying to catch up.

---

• Hello, clidd

VOTE: Quick

If you cannot understand simple English, perhaps you should do some more reading?

"I don't understand what you are saying" should not mean, "You are Scum because I don't understand you"

How many games do you have under your belt?

[Quick]

Okay, he's a vet. That means he is forcing me to spill my guts.

Good luck, I would rather do this:

VOTE: Looker

Because he cannot think hard enough to understand what I have written.

[Looker]

Wow. Is that really what you want to do?

[Reundo]

This game's been moving a lot faster than I anticipated, and the constant replacements aren't really helping with that. I'll be around for a while now at least.

I've been thinking about the Klick/Quick slot for a while and at this point I'm leaning more town than scum. I find myself having to make less concessions when analyzing their play from a town perspective rather than a scum one. Like I'm not sure why Klick would want to make post 150 as scum anyhow. It wouldn't really help for town-cred since if anything it'll draw even more suspicion (questions like "why ask Atarashi/Hoctac in particular?"). Calling out them in particular seems very deliberate, and it'd be a pretty notable lapse of judgment for him to go the extent of almost pretending to be an Informed Townie himself and forget he wasn't supposed to know about the neighborhood. Otoh I think it's plausible that town!Klick would either want to give a heads up to the neighborhood or leave a crumb that he is informed (though leaving out Zulfy does hamper this theory slightly). Quick's first vote on Hoctac would make sense if he did indeed know there were scum in the neighborhood, as does his later vote on Zulfy (though I don't entirely follow the progression there), and his earlier paranoia about whether or not Klick claimed also coincides with his later reaction when Hoctac essentially forced him to claim. They could just be happy coincidences and things just happened to line up in his favor, but I'm not seeing it. I do have some issues with Quick's ISO, primarily his weird interaction with SirCakez and him ignoring basic questions about his role this past page (and as far as Klick goes, I did read a part of his scum ISO and realized he had a wider scum-range than I realized), but overall I'm not that concerned about him at the moment.