[Setup] 9 and 2 [Edited]

[Quick]

Don't know if this is a setup already, but I digress.

Mountainous: 8 Townies, 2 Goons

That's it.

[Quick]

Horribly scumsided. For starters, it starts on evens. Second of all, it is mountainous, and mountainous is notoriously difficult for town to win. I think for EV purposes, you need at least 11-2.

Sorry I forget how good scum is on this site/how bad town is on this site.

Disregard.

[Quick]

For starters, it starts on evens.

That is intended for Town to decide if they want to No-Lynch or not.

[Quick]

I guess the only other thing I would add is that I thought Town was supposed to play way above EV, but maybe I am wrong about that?

[Quick]

1) Evens is bad in setups with mafia kills because town's best chances come from no lynching at some point. There are exceptions, but in mountainous, no lynching is ALWAYS the correct move in terms of EV. This takes a town controlled kill and turns it into a scum controlled kill.
2) Town only performs above EV in nightless setup. I believe town has yet to win a mountainous setup on this site, so mountainous probably results in town performing below EV if anything.

Wow, Town really really sucks on this site. I didn't know it was THAT bad.

[Quick]

fwiw i dont think a true mountainous setup has been run on this site for years, quicksearch shows last game was in 2014

I have no idea what the implications of that are. Does that mean it's a "1/1,000,000 chance" or what?

[Quick]

Okay. People don't like scum hunting here I guess.

[Quick]

All my point was is that Town SHOULD play WAY above EV. That is all.

[Quick]

Batters SHOULD hit WAY better than average probability of blind swings in the strike zone.

Did you know that lots of little league batters nearly double the batting average of MLB players? smh MLB is such hot trash, there's literally no other human actors involved in the process of batting that I can think of

Okay, is this just ego or what?

Don't really get why this site should be so much better than other sites. Would you mind unpacking that?

[Quick]

i'm often told it's scummy to answer other's questions for them, but i think you may have misinterpreted what isis was trying to say there.

personally, i interpreted it more as a comment on the nature of scumteams and their role in games rather than any sort of comment specifically about mafiascum.

At least you didn't say I was misrepping them...

[Quick]

All my point was is that Town SHOULD play WAY above EV. That is all.

town does play significantly above EV in certain setups—for example, nightless and other setups that in some way disrupt the mafia factional kill. town plays significantly below EV in other setups, the reasons for which are somewhat more nebulous.

i'm interested to hear why you believe town "should" play way above EV, in general and for this setup specifically. i put "should" in quotes there because i believe the way that we use the word with regards to setups differs: if i were to say "town should play above EV in nightless", i would be using "should" to indicate likely probability. it seems to me, however, that in this context you are using "should" more in the sense of "ought to", perhaps with some connotation of duty or obligation. it's possible i'm interpreting you incorrectly, but that's the way that i'm reading what you're saying.

regardless, my primary interest is, to repeat myself, hearing why you believe town "should" play way above EV, in general and for this setup specifically. this is something i was actually just considering earlier – if you consider an equally skilled town and scumteam, where does the expectation that town should be the ones to perform better arise from? my guess is that it lies on the assumption that finding scum is easier than deceiving people as scum. i could be wrong in that guess, but if i weren't i would wonder whether or not that assumption is true.

Town should preform better than random chance by a mile. Why? Humans are good at problem solving, among other reasons. Of course this doesn't even factor in guilt, but there might be a small tick that Town does better because of that as well.

I guess, for this game, it really boils down to whether Mafia have Day Chat or not. I would also make the game so Mafia could NOT talk before the game started.

[Quick]

Lies are fallacious arguments.

[Quick]

What if...

My setup is nightless with nothing else different besides letting Scum have Day Chat?

[Quick]

Quick, few people understand the MU meta and where it comes from better than I do, and 90% of the reason setup balance is different there boils down to shorter phases and plurality lynches, not some vast skill-gap between MU and MS.

Okay, if you say so, but....

Town is better there. Fact.

[Quick]

Whatever evidence you're using to support that statement can just easily support "Scum are worse there. Fact."

Okay, what exactly is your point here? Was I unclear at first?

[Quick]

If it isn't clear enough, I disagree with your claim that the skill disparity between the two sites is a "fact" and look forward to hearing what your sample size and conclusive evidence is to support this.

The

perception

of MU players for the past couple of years has largely been that MS has strong scum and MU has strong town. It's impossible to gather conclusive data to support this conclusion, however, because even identical setups are run differently on the two sites - MU considers plurality lynches and shorter phases to be standard, and MS considers majority lynches and longer phases standard.

Phase length and plurality/majority lynches are major factors that influence game balance - that's why setups that produce balanced win rates on one sites often have to be tweaked to produce the same on the other. Not a "factual" skill disparity.

Town win rates.

[Quick]

And that is literally ALL I am saying here.

[Quick]

crossgame ms vs mu when

We ran a series alternating between the two sites shortly after launching MU.

The results did not support Quick's conclusion, but I'm sure he's basing his opinion off of more recent experiences.

Just started playing from like 2 years ago.

[Quick]

Quick do you realize you are comparing the winrates of MS towns against MS scum to the winrates of MU towns against MU scums (under rulesets more favorable to town), and drawing conclusions about what the winrates of MS and MU towns each would be like against MS scum.

Nope. Don't realize that at all.

[Quick]

"Cherry Pepsi outsells Original Pepsi, while Original Coca-Cola outsells Cherry Coca-Cola. Therefore, Cherry Pepsi is better than Cherry Coca-Cola."

That looks illogical to me...

[Quick]

is it bad i cant tell if quick is being sarcastic or not

Par for the course

[Quick]

"Cherry Pepsi outsells Original Pepsi, while Original Coca-Cola outsells Cherry Coca-Cola. Therefore, Cherry Pepsi is better than Cherry Coca-Cola."

That looks illogical to me...

Very good, Quick!

Now substitute:

Cherry > Town
Original > Scum
Pepsi > on MU
Coca-Cola > on MS
Outsells > Outperforms

Honestly, I suck at math.

[Quick]

I humbly accept your surrender.

Okay. Write up the treaty. I will be sure to read the fine print.

[Quick]

Or you could try and see what I was trying to get at with Ircher for what it is. Your choice!

[Quick]

I choose Cherry Coca Cola, always.

Vanilla's better.

[Quick]

Or you could try and see what I was trying to get at with Ircher for what it is. Your choice!

"Town win rate is slightly higher under MU rulesets" would have been fine. That's measurable.

That isn't what you said, though, and when it was clear that I was responding to what you actually said, rather than the above, you could have corrected yourself. Instead you doubled down and suggested that the town win rates were not what you meant, but instead were actually evidence for what you said.

Otherwise identical setups become more townsided when you run them with 48 hour day phases and plurality lynches. If that was your point, then I agree, and we're done here.

If that wasn't your point, then everything else I said earlier still applies.

131 I guess.

[Quick]

Thingyman from MU here.

Don't know if this is a setup already, but I digress.

Mountainous: 8 Townies, 2 Goons

That's it.

I agree with others that this seems quite unbalanced.

10/10 trolling thread

I also assume this thread is a troll

At least, I want to make it clear that Quick's views aren't representative of what we think at MU about the level of play here.

As for the Mountainous setup, it seems it hasn't been tested terribly much on any site. But for those interested, here are the MU stats:

When it was used as the setup for Mafia Championship season 4, town won 5 out 14 games. That was 12 townies versus 3 mafia goons. But that's not representative of how MU fares in this setup, as these games consist of players from more than a hundred different communities.

Outside of the Championship, the 12-3 Mountainous setup has been run only 14 times it appears, with town winning just two of these. So interestingly, with the same sample size, a group of strangers did better than a group of MU'ers, though I think half of the sample size for MU was it being used a practice game, so that was also essentially a lot of non-regular MU'ers. All in all, the sample sizes are small and most of the games featured players with no meta on each other, so it's hard to say there's any valuable data.

An 11-2 Mountainous has been run two times, with town winning one of these.

crossgame ms vs mu when

We ran a series alternating between the two sites shortly after launching MU.

The results did not support Quick's conclusion, but I'm sure he's basing his opinion off of more recent experiences.

Is this nolemonplease?

However, we've never run a MS-MU series, so I think you must be thinking of something else. We'd love to run such a thing though, that'd be fun.

Keep in mind the word "superior" is NOWHERE in any of what I posted in this thread and that was NEVER my point. Okay, thanks.

[Quick]

I'm sorry if I've misrepresented you. I just wanted to make sure it didn't come across to MS as though MU has some negative view of this site.

Why would I have a negative view of either site?

Also, I started on this site before MU but PerC is where I actually "started". I should really get back there at some point.

[Quick]

Look, REALLY my point was NEVER one site is better than the other.

My point WAS that MU probably (AFAIK) has a Town winrate better than MS. And that is taking things site wide and not just looking at mountainous.

[Quick]

Unless things have changed drastically in like 3 years, which I doubt. Because I remember seeing a comment by someone who said on MU Town has a better win rate than Scum. That is what it's based on. It's from my first game on MU I believe.

[Quick]

Look, REALLY my point was NEVER one site is better than the other.

My point WAS that MU probably (AFAIK) has a Town winrate better than MS. And that is taking things site wide and not just looking at mountainous.

I could quote you in this thread saying how bad this site is, but I'm too much of a fan of apophasis. At the very least, I'm certain you can see how it might be easy to think that that's the point you're making.

Is it empirically true that MU has a higher town winrate? Also, town winrate across what types of games? Thingyman's analysis (which I very much appreciated) doesn't seem to strongly point towards one site over the other when it comes to open setups. From memory of looking at MU's database-tracked winrates for their normal games, it was roughly 50/50. This is comparable to MS's 53% town winrate for mini normals in 2019 (of course, I'm not sure how comparable setups are between sites, but that's kind of the point, isn't it?).

Also, if your point is simply to bring up greater town winrates on MU, I might ask if there's any deeper point or insight you were attempting to get at. I think it's natural to assume that someone making that sort of statement would be using it to further some other point rather than just making mention of it, but I could be wrong about that.

Do your analysis again, but this time consider I wasn't saying any site was better at anything besides winrates of Town/Scum.

Okay, time to go ISO myself to see if I am telling the truth here...

[Quick]

1) Evens is bad in setups with mafia kills because town's best chances come from no lynching at some point. There are exceptions, but in mountainous, no lynching is ALWAYS the correct move in terms of EV. This takes a town controlled kill and turns it into a scum controlled kill.
2) Town only performs above EV in nightless setup. I believe town has yet to win a mountainous setup on this site, so mountainous probably results in town performing below EV if anything.

Wow, Town really really sucks on this site. I didn't know it was THAT bad.

Just to be clear, Ircher said Town does worse than EV in mountainous.

[Quick]

Thor665 played in it, I believe.

[Quick]

Does no one else enjoy Mountainous?

Not me. I hate it.

No, totally joking.

[Quick]

Town can No-Lynch at MiLo (or however you type that. Been away from Mafia for quite a while).

[Quick]

It starts on odds, it doesn't hit MyLo

I goofed then.

[Quick]

I mean why aren't "Vanilla" or "Basic" or even "Vanilla Normal" viable names for an all-vanilla Normal setup?

I've always called it just "Mafia" or "Vanilla Mafia". I still don't really understand why the M-word stuck.

Dirty dirty m word

Mother ******.