mini 2140: partition (this is over)

[Ame]

This is currently my favorite song



hi hoc hi cat morning tweet

[Ame]

Hoc, I'm glad you enjoyed it! She has a couple of other really good ones too.

I feel like this game is going to be a wine tasting contest!

Also V/LA until Friday

[Ame]

too slow

[Ame]

I looked a bit through the first game. Scum also placed one in each group. I think this opening comes from one of the numbers-oriented players.

[Ame]

I think our biggest disadvantage is a lack of ability to pressure other players since it's diffused across the groups, and thus a lack of scum hunting.

I think sorting the players

in

the groups should be priority as normal, and inorder to do that we need a way to apply pressure to individuals. So what do you guys think of lynching groups based on a pseudo lynching individuals?

We can use hurt tags and use them to maintain our own vote count. Then when a

player

gets a majority, we lynch that group. If the player is in group 1, we reset the count and begin again. If yet another player from group 1 gets majority, we lynch that group.

Otherwise I think discussion is likely to be limited to speculating about where scum placed themselves and going around the wine/yomi cycle

@Kanna same, I initially joined because Clidd came out of his newbie game hiding hole, and was excited to see you and dsj signed up! It feels like a conspiracy.

[Ame]

And to clarify we'd only reset and do another round of the player is in group 1

specifically

. We'd only lynch group 1 if two players from that group are pseudolynched back to back.

[Ame]

Glad you enjoyed the song, Kanna!

[Ame]

if*

[Ame]

What do you mean by play normal?

[Ame]

And yes because 1 scum isn't enough to lynch group 1 as per cats post

[Ame]

All I've had today is cereal and French fries

[Ame]

What do you mean by play normal?

I meant scum hunt normally. And come to a consensus about groups late in the day based on who you scumread.

Ok

[Ame]

I think, provided the scumteam are a group of people who don't like playing scum, they might choose to go down together (worst case scenario).

This is quite specific.

[Ame]

Your point is contradictory though. If lynching group 1 has the highest EV, then distributing scum 1:1:1 is the ideal strategy as it has the highest probability of a Day 1 win.

[Ame]

Additionally, using the scum-to-town ration isn't an effective way of determining the win rate as it ignores binning.

[Ame]

-n *

[Ame]

Seeing as the majority of players have expressed this view, I think it's quite likely.

wrt binning, I mean it ignores the groups and group placement. You can't use the scum-to-town ratio because of it

[Ame]

For example, say there are 2 scum in group 1 and we lynch group 1

Then the probability of scum winning is ~1/4 not 1/10

[Ame]

(and even then, that probability isn't quite correct as it ignores group placement for the next day, but to make the point)

[Ame]

...I just noticed something lmfao

[Ame]

this has Hoc written all over it xDDD

[Ame]

yeah this has to be Hoc

[Ame]

I don't know what you're talking about, Ame.
:shiftyeyes:

look at the groups

[Ame]

Also do not like Albert's Push.

[Ame]

p

[Ame]

VOTE: Group 2

[Ame]

I think it's fairly likely that there are 2 scum in group 1, but not 3. I don't buy this reasoning from Albert.

or Kanna

[Ame]

@mod

does scum decide the order players are placed in each group or are they automatically alphabetized?

[Ame]

I know it's about the groups. I can only think of 1 thing.

Group 1. One of these things is not like the others.

[Ame]

Hoc, who all have you played with here?

[Ame]

Or who haven't' you played with rather

[Ame]

Tweet, can I ask what your occupation is? Also do you happen to know your mbti personality type?

[Ame]

Tweet and Cat are always so townie. I'm paragon btw.

[Ame]

Clidd and Albert for scum

[Ame]

We lynch there today

[Ame]

Hoc + Clidd?

[Ame]

Why would he be? Hoctac is clearly not the same thing as Hectic. Are you dyslexic?

[Ame]

Agree

[Ame]

Kanna I'm not ignoring you, I'm just going to quote everything later. Actually, since I'm already typing this I can respond to 164. It's your reasoning that you are using to justify there being 3 scum in group 1 that comes off as disingenuous. Who do you know besides myself that hates being scum so much that they would throw all their eggs in one basket? It seems unlikely the entire scum team would agree to such a strategy.

[Ame]

lol @ pedit

Hoc please explain! I want to know what you think I see.

[Ame]

I think I get what she's referring to, but I'm not 100% sure. I'm not going to explain it in case I'm wrong.

Hoc, I'm referring to this

[Ame]

The last line above though is where my read is stemming from

[Ame]

Kanna I believe you

[Ame]

I've never been a game with dsj posting so much!

[Ame]

a

*AN

I HAVE SINNED

I think given the ellipsis it is acceptable as it reflects a natural pause in speech where the speaker is unaware of the word they are going to use next and so cannot anticipate the proper form of a/an to use beforehand.

@Hoc let's reveal at the same time at xx:30 I promise I'll post so don't preview before you do ok

[Ame]

You can do it, I'll be right here with you. Don't be afraid. Get ready!

[Ame]

Hoc? Hoc. Oh there you are. I was getting ready too but I saw you didn't and so I didnt

[Ame]

speaking of sin

[Ame]

ok that's enough procrastination, I have a paper to write

[Ame]

I think given the ellipsis it is acceptable as it reflects a natural pause in speech where the speaker is unaware of the word they are going to use next and so cannot anticipate the proper form of a/an to use beforehand.

Furthermore, the purpose of 'an' is to smooth out the transition between two vowel sounds. If there's a pause between words, however, that is no longer necessary. I couldn't sleep with this on my mind.

[Ame]

Sleeping on it Kanna, I still don't resonate with your reasoning. If scum were playing

go big or go home

why would they place all of their members in Group 1? The go big or go home strategy would be to place 0-1 member in Group 1 for a quick victory. I've been thinking how I'd go about this, and this is exactly what I'd do. MT stated that it was obvious to her that town would push for group 3, but I think it's obvious town would push for Group 1 with the idea of getting 2 scum. Moths fly to the brightest flame and G1 is like so wifomy in-your-face goading us to lynch there.

[Ame]

Kanna what are your reads on Clidd, Hoc, Raya, and Charmander?

[Ame]

Also, Kanna, do you notice anything about 200?

[Ame]

Hoc, who haven't you played with or "read up on?" on your main account. Ongoing games are irrelevant to this question.

[Ame]

^Scum theatre

[Ame]

@Hectic - associative. You randomly mentioned him earlier. And your interaction looks partnery. Also suspect that you two are likely to have done thins configuration. Not ignoring you or anyone. I'll fully address posts I've gleaned over Friday-Saturday

[Ame]

-n

[Ame]

Even if we think there are 2+ scum in group 1, I think lynching it would be bad gameplay. I haven't tried to do that math, but I suspect that going that route has a poor EV relative to the others.

[Ame]

Sleeping on it Kanna, I still don't resonate with your reasoning. If scum were playing

go big or go home

why would they place all of their members in Group 1? The go big or go home strategy would be to place 0-1 member in Group 1 for a quick victory. I've been thinking how I'd go about this, and this is exactly what I'd do. MT stated that it was obvious to her that town would push for group 3, but I think it's obvious town would push for Group 1 with the idea of getting 2 scum. Moths fly to the brightest flame and G1 is like so wifomy in-your-face goading us to lynch there.

by "go big or go home," i mean

i

want to go big or go home (right now, by voting group 1). i still think 2+ scum in group 1 is what most people would do prediscussion. it's actually quite safe because you can blackmail town with how many lives they could potentially lose. i personally find 3/0/0 appealing, but (⍪_⍪)

my point is there's *at least* 2 scum in group 1, why do you keep focusing on 3/0/0?

Because of the blue line here:

I wouldn't discount all scum being in group 1. I think, provided the scumteam are a group of people who don't like playing scum, they might choose to go down together (worst case scenario).

1/1/1 seems like the safest option, but kind of demoralising if they know one of their guys go down no matter what they do.

after thinking about it i think there's *probably* at least 2 scum in group 1

i do agree with scumhunting though. I think our priority sorts are groups 2 and 3. Ame's idea is interesting, although it's one of those ideas that requires everyone to be on board with and i'm not sure if that will be the case

This is what I'm referring to as the go big or go home take. You stated here that you think scum might choose to go down together. But if that was the type of team we had, they would go 1/1/1 not 3/0/0.

I think the 2/x/x is very reasonable and I think likely. My concern with you isn't about what you believe (I'm not interested in sorting out which of the scenarios we are in), it's your reasoning in line 1 that is.

[Ame]

i mean...i've disagreed with most of her takes so i don't know if you want my opinion (sorry)

The line addressed toward me in particular.

You 5 are my current scum pool.

[Ame]

@Ame; I said that because it's the first thing that came to my mind - as in, I would totally do that and try to convince my team to do that, i thought i covered this.

Given the reasoning I provided, do you maintain yours?

[Ame]

If 502 addressed toward me?

[Ame]

Is*

[Ame]

i think what you said is possible, but it's like a double layer of wifom that i don't think is likely for scum to think of beforehand. most likely/natural is 2+ scum in Group 1, with 3/0/0 just being appealing

The fact that the distributions are built this way is exactly why it's likely they thought of it beforehand! It was obviously made by someone with foresight. If you had no knowledge of how the distributions were made today, how do you think you would have made them coming into the game?

[Ame]

If there are 2 scum in Group 1, and say, 1 in Group 2, we absolutely kill Group 1. Yes, scum/town ratio is better, but scum decide the partitions and it messes us up the next day. 1 lone scum is winnable.

This is just based on my conversation with Charmander earlier (sorry Char I don't have your name off the top of my head), I haven't had the time to look into the math yet, but intuitively it seems like we have a lower probability of winning going the G1 route. If there is 1 scum, we lose automatically. If there are 2 scum, scum has a 2/3 chance of winning the next day. If we lynch G2 and there is 1 scum, then...If we lynch G3 and there is 1 scum...If we lynch G3 and there is 2 scum... (and that's where my brain is stopping). But I think going the route of minimizing casualties is better for our chances of winning, particularly because we can get more days and scumhunting out of it and will have flips to work off of. Whereas going G1 we are essentially gambling without prior knowledge of who is on the scum team and how they think. Going one of the other groups actually gives us

evidence

of how they think and we can work from there. Right now we are just random guessing and going in circles.

pedit: enomis, that's it

[Ame]

can you explain why?

Yes.

[Ame]

Also one of my top :3

[Ame]

post hoc

[Ame]

Frued?

[Ame]

Hoc, that gave me goosebumps!

[Ame]

The journey of lynching Group 1:

I've seen the light.

VOTE: Group: 1

(L-1)

[Ame]

Reading through Clidd's posts, I change my mind, he's obvtown. So is ARB. dsj is also town. So unless Mo and Char (oh my god why wont this stick in my brain?) are both scum, I think this is safe.

[Ame]

I think scum is probably Raya, Char, and adorbs?

[Ame]

Alternatively, the team is exactly MT, ARB, and Char and we just lose here.

[Ame]

Do you think it worked Ame?

[Ame]

Spoiler:

...I just noticed something lmfao

this has Hoc written all over it xDDD

yeah this has to be Hoc

I don't know what you're talking about, Ame.
:shiftyeyes:

I don't know what you're talking about, Ame.
:shiftyeyes:

look at the groups

I know it's about the groups. I can only think of 1 thing.

Group 1. One of these things is not like the others.

what is this?

There aren't any females in Groups 2 or 3. I was contemplating on whether it just happened to turn out that way, but considering the proportion this game, I think it's an unlikely a coincidence and the groups were intentionally made on this basis. Also we are in alphabetical order. In the last game, the names were more randomly spread about. Hoc is the only male in the first group (and dragon half). This makes me think that either a) Hoc is pulling a funny one or b) The scum team consists of players who didn't know what Hoc's gender was.

[Ame]

I don't know if it's innocent of fake...The big puffy eyes are making me lean the former!

[Ame]

A heart as pure as snow.

[Ame]

Hoc, why were you afraid to answer?

[Ame]

What was the other?

[Ame]

lol sorry Leafeons have a 87.5% male ratio so I was just playing to the odds

[Ame]

UNVOTE:

Scum backing down

[Ame]

I'm here. I'll have my unvote ready as a backup. Go at xx:07

[Ame]

xx:27 *

[Ame]

...

[Ame]

UNVOTE: Groupe 1

[Ame]

oh woops I was too slow. Glad it worked out.

VOTE: Group 1

[Ame]

Clidd, I felt your opening was agenda-y and that you and Hoc might have been partners. I hadn't answered you because I had mostly been skimming at that point. I didn't really read your posts in particular because they are not posts that I can just look through real fast. When catching up last night I finally got to reading your content and it's just obvious to me that you're town. Your tone/thoughts/pushes are all reminiscent of strawberry and Boon's game, and lack the nervousness from Conspiracy. Most substantially, I don't think scum Clidd comes at me the way you have and would rather avoid me since you seem to fancy and fear my ability to read you.

[Ame]

Also I do scum read someone from group 3: enomis.

[Ame]

Like you ARB and dsj are just all really obvtown to me. And if this is 2/0/1 I think lynching Enom wins it.

[Ame]

gifsthatkeepongifing

[Ame]

Also I do scum read someone from group 3: enomis.

What's your read on Mohab ?

town lean

[Ame]

Clidd idrc

[Ame]

Knew it. I'm down for another

[Ame]

I hate you ARB

[Ame]

Town played incredibly. I never thought enough of you would be crazy enough to vote for group 1.