Open 778: Nightless Vanilla [Game Over!]


User avatar
Isis
Isis
she/her, not they
Best in Class
User avatar
User avatar
Isis
she/her, not they
Best in Class
Best in Class
Posts: 11219
Joined: April 6, 2020
Pronoun: she/her, not they
Location: Seattle

Post Post #3050 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 3:13 pm

Post by Isis »

I'm not a fly but I'm a butterfly, do you want me Looker?
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
User avatar
northsidegal
northsidegal
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
northsidegal
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11587
Joined: August 23, 2017

Post Post #3051 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 3:13 pm

Post by northsidegal »

Votecount 6.3


TargetWagon
humaneatingmonkey
(1)
Looker ()
Green Crayons
(1)
Isis ()
Not Voting
(5)
Deimos27, Elements, Green Crayons, humaneatingmonkey (), Firebringer ()

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. The Day 6 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-22 12:38:59).
Last edited by northsidegal on Sun May 17, 2020 7:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
wiki | modded | Newbie NewD3 Stats | scripts

things fall apart
User avatar
humaneatingmonkey
humaneatingmonkey
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
humaneatingmonkey
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11437
Joined: June 7, 2017

Post Post #3052 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 3:14 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

In post 3027, Looker wrote:I don't think it would be possible for scum to effectively avoid all mislynches.
Why not?
User avatar
Looker
Looker
the
Stenographer
User avatar
User avatar
Looker
the
Stenographer
Stenographer
Posts: 5304
Joined: February 20, 2009
Pronoun: the

Post Post #3053 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 3:58 pm

Post by Looker »

Because I've never seen it happen before
User avatar
humaneatingmonkey
humaneatingmonkey
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
humaneatingmonkey
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11437
Joined: June 7, 2017

Post Post #3054 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:24 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

If I randomly sample 10 of your games and see that there's one scum who has successfully avoided non-LYLO lynches, would you self-hammer?
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #3055 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:29 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

Spoiler: First VC where nobody is not voting.
In post 202, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.7


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(3)
Firebringer (),
NorwegianboyEE
(), Isis ()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Alisae
(), Green Crayons ()
Firebringer
(2)
votato
(),
Cycle Men
()
humaneatingmonkey
(2)
Elements (), Looker ()
Isis
(1)
Deimos27 ()
Elements
(1)
Albert B. Rampage
()
votato
(1)
humaneatingmonkey ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
Okay so I picked this because it's the first VC where nobody is not voting. I didn't go back to check to see if this is all the players' first vote placement (lazy), but it's a good enough as a snapshot of early game markers.

Scum aren't keen on voting together needlessly because it makes them look like a block, so FB and Isis less likely to be scum because Norwegian is voting Cycle. Also, 2 scum on their buddy? Well, maybe. But unlikely that all three scum were voting Cycle Men for this early VC, so FB and Isis still get "less likely scum" points.

IDK this isn't science, man. Don't @ me.



Spoiler: Deimos wagon
In post 414, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.11


TargetWagon
Deimos27
(4)
Firebringer (),
Albert B. Rampage
(),
votato
(), Green Crayons ()
votato
(2)
humaneatingmonkey (), Elements ()
NorwegianboyEE
(1)
Alisae
()
Green Crayons
(1)
Isis ()
Firebringer
(1)
Cycle Men
()
Elements
(1)
Looker ()
Cycle Men
(1)
NorwegianboyEE
()
Not Voting
(1)
Deimos27 ()

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 450, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.12


TargetWagon
Deimos27
(4)
Firebringer (),
Albert B. Rampage
(),
votato
(), Green Crayons ()
votato
(2)
humaneatingmonkey (), Elements ()
NorwegianboyEE
(1)
Alisae
()
Firebringer
(1)
Cycle Men
()
Elements
(1)
Looker ()
Cycle Men
(1)
NorwegianboyEE
()
Not Voting
(2)
Deimos27 (), Isis ()

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 475, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.13


TargetWagon
Deimos27
(4)
Firebringer (),
Albert B. Rampage
(),
votato
(), Green Crayons ()
votato
(2)
humaneatingmonkey (), Elements ()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Alisae
(), Looker ()
Firebringer
(1)
Cycle Men
()
Cycle Men
(1)
NorwegianboyEE
()
Not Voting
(2)
Deimos27 (), Isis ()

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 500, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.14


TargetWagon
Deimos27
(3)
Firebringer (),
Albert B. Rampage
(), Green Crayons ()
votato
(2)
humaneatingmonkey (), Elements ()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Alisae
(), Looker ()
Firebringer
(1)
Cycle Men
()
Cycle Men
(1)
NorwegianboyEE
()
Not Voting
(3)
Deimos27 (), Isis (),
votato
()

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 601, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.15


TargetWagon
Deimos27
(3)
Firebringer (),
Albert B. Rampage
(), Green Crayons ()
votato
(2)
humaneatingmonkey (), Elements ()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Alisae
(), Looker ()
Firebringer
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
votato
()
Cycle Men
(2)
NorwegianboyEE
(), Deimos27 ()
Not Voting
(1)
Isis ()

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 625, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.16


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(4)
NorwegianboyEE
(), Deimos27 (),
Alisae
(), Isis ()
Deimos27
(3)
Firebringer (),
Albert B. Rampage
(), Green Crayons ()
votato
(2)
humaneatingmonkey (), Elements ()
Firebringer
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
votato
()
NorwegianboyEE
(1)
Looker ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 650, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.17


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(3)
NorwegianboyEE
(), Deimos27 (), Isis ()
Deimos27
(3)
Firebringer (),
Albert B. Rampage
(), Green Crayons ()
votato
(2)
humaneatingmonkey (), Elements ()
Firebringer
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
votato
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (),
Alisae
()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 700, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.18


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(4)
NorwegianboyEE
(), Deimos27 (), Isis (), Elements ()
Deimos27
(3)
Firebringer (),
Albert B. Rampage
(), Green Crayons ()
Firebringer
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
votato
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (),
Alisae
()
Elements
(1)
humaneatingmonkey ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 725, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.19


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(6)
NorwegianboyEE
(), Deimos27 (), Isis (), Elements (), Green Crayons (), Firebringer ()
Firebringer
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
votato
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (),
Alisae
()
Deimos27
(1)
Albert B. Rampage
()
Elements
(1)
humaneatingmonkey ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
One interesting thing about the Deimos wagon is how the Deimos wagon was overcome by the Cycle Men wagon.

Note that Norwegian had just planted his vote on Cycle back from the 100s posts.

*Normally* I would say that the folks who were the momentum to shift the wagon onto Cycle get town points. So, that'd be Ali (VC 1.16), Isis (VC 1.16), and Elements (1.18). Here, those town points are somewhat tempered by the fact that we need to accept that at least one scum was fine with bussing Cycle (Norwegian) until Cycle started pulling his weight; so maybe Isis and Elements were a of a similar mind. While possible, I still these as more likely town slots on the Cycle wagon, because it's D1 and scum aren't so keen on actively pushing their buddies to a lynch.

No, I didn't forget about Deimos. He's the one that made that stellar post about Cycle that got everyone thinking about Cycle. I'm going to revisit that post later in an actual readthrough, rather than try to address it here in this VCA. I want to see if it feels TMI.



Spoiler: Cycle Men wagon - part 1
In post 725, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.19


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(6)
NorwegianboyEE
(), Deimos27 (), Isis (), Elements (), Green Crayons (), Firebringer ()
Firebringer
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
votato
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (),
Alisae
()
Deimos27
(1)
Albert B. Rampage
()
Elements
(1)
humaneatingmonkey ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 800, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.22


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(6)
NorwegianboyEE
(), Deimos27 (), Isis (), Elements (), Green Crayons (), Firebringer ()
Firebringer
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
votato
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (),
Alisae
()
Deimos27
(1)
Albert B. Rampage
()
Elements
(1)
humaneatingmonkey ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 834, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.23


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(6)
NorwegianboyEE
(), Deimos27 (), Isis (), Elements (), Green Crayons (), Firebringer ()
Firebringer
(3)
Cycle Men
(),
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (),
Alisae
()
Elements
(1)
humaneatingmonkey ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 852, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.24


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(5)
NorwegianboyEE
(), Deimos27 (), Isis (), Elements (), Green Crayons ()
Firebringer
(3)
Cycle Men
(),
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (),
Alisae
()
Elements
(1)
humaneatingmonkey ()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 892, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.25


TargetWagon
Firebringer
(4)
Cycle Men
(),
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
(), Elements ()
NorwegianboyEE
(4)
Looker (),
Alisae
(), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis ()
Cycle Men
(3)
NorwegianboyEE
(), Deimos27 (), Green Crayons ()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
Similarly, one of the interesting things about the Cycle Men wagon is how FB became a counterwagon.

Actually, before I get there, if you take VC 1.19 through 1.22 (I believe they're all the same), <Isis versus Elements> and <GC versus FB> are the head-to-head one must be scum. Not that one must *actually* be scum from these groups, but that these players moved to the Cycle wagon at roughly the same time, and scum are less likely to move together in a group, much less against their own to bus.

Okay, back to the competing wagons. The breakdown of the Cycle Men wagon as FB started getting votes is interesting.

VC 1.24: FB (last to vote for Cycle) shifts from Cycle over to votato. I read this as null. Shifting away from a wagon is not great, but he was last on, was barely there, and decides to vote someone who isn’t being voted for.

VC 1.25: Two things.

First, Elements shifts from Cycle over to FB. This vote puts FB at 4, and at the time of the vote (but not the time of VC 1.25) Cycle Men was left with 4. This leans scum as it takes momentum away from Cycle and adds it to FB (unknown alignment)

Second, Isis shifts from Cycle over to Norwegian. This actually reduces Cycle to 3, and makes Norwegian a competing wagon with FB with 4 votes each. As we know Cycle and Norwegian are scum, it would certainly be a weird for Isis-scum to simply trade out one scum wagon (Cycle) for another (Norwegian), when they both are competing against the FB wagon (unknown alignment). This gives Isis town points.

I say unknown alignment, but the likelihood that we were wagoning three scum at the same time in D1 is stupid unlikely. With the competing wagons being Norwegian (scum), Cycle (scum), and FB (unknown), FB is likely town, which makes Elements look not good in VC 1.25.



Spoiler: Cycle Men wagon - part 2
In post 901, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.26


TargetWagon
NorwegianboyEE
(4)
Looker (),
Alisae
(), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis ()
Firebringer
(3)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
(), Elements ()
Cycle Men
(3)
NorwegianboyEE
(), Deimos27 (), Green Crayons ()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
humaneatingmonkey
(1)
Cycle Men
()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 925, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.27


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(4)
Deimos27 (), Green Crayons (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis ()
Firebringer
(3)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
(), Elements ()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (),
Alisae
()
humaneatingmonkey
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
NorwegianboyEE
()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 950, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.28


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(4)
Deimos27 (), Green Crayons (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis ()
Firebringer
(3)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
(), Elements ()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (),
Alisae
()
humaneatingmonkey
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
NorwegianboyEE
()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 975, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.29


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(4)
Deimos27 (), Green Crayons (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis ()
Firebringer
(3)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
(), Elements ()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (),
Alisae
()
humaneatingmonkey
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
NorwegianboyEE
()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1000, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.30


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(5)
Deimos27 (), Green Crayons (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis (), Elements ()
humaneatingmonkey
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
NorwegianboyEE
()
Firebringer
(2)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(1)
Looker ()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Isis
(1)
Alisae
()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1026, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.31


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(4)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis (), Elements ()
Firebringer
(2)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (), Green Crayons ()
Elements
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
Alisae
()
humaneatingmonkey
(1)
NorwegianboyEE
()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1051, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.32


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(4)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis (), Elements ()
Firebringer
(2)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (), Green Crayons ()
Elements
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
Alisae
()
humaneatingmonkey
(1)
NorwegianboyEE
()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1075, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.33


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(4)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis (), Elements ()
Firebringer
(2)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (), Green Crayons ()
Elements
(2)
Cycle Men
(),
Alisae
()
humaneatingmonkey
(1)
NorwegianboyEE
()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1104, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.34


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(4)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis (), Elements ()
Elements
(3)
Cycle Men
(),
Alisae
(),
NorwegianboyEE
()
Firebringer
(2)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (), Green Crayons ()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1125, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.35


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(4)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis (), Elements ()
Elements
(3)
Cycle Men
(),
Alisae
(),
NorwegianboyEE
()
Firebringer
(2)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (), Green Crayons ()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1150, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.36


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(3)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis ()
Elements
(3)
Cycle Men
(),
Alisae
(),
NorwegianboyEE
()
Firebringer
(2)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (), Green Crayons ()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Alisae
(1)
Elements ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1175, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.37


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(4)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis (), Elements ()
Elements
(3)
Cycle Men
(),
Alisae
(),
NorwegianboyEE
()
Firebringer
(2)
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (), Green Crayons ()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1208, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.38


TargetWagon
Elements
(4)
Cycle Men
(),
Alisae
(),
NorwegianboyEE
(),
votato
()
Cycle Men
(3)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis ()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (), Green Crayons ()
Alisae
(2)
Elements (),
Albert B. Rampage
()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1225, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.39


TargetWagon
Elements
(4)
Cycle Men
(),
Alisae
(),
NorwegianboyEE
(),
votato
()
Cycle Men
(3)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis ()
NorwegianboyEE
(2)
Looker (), Green Crayons ()
Alisae
(2)
Elements (),
Albert B. Rampage
()
votato
(1)
Firebringer ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1250, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.40


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(6)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis (), Firebringer (), Green Crayons (), Elements ()
Elements
(4)
Cycle Men
(),
Alisae
(),
NorwegianboyEE
(),
votato
()
Alisae
(1)
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(1)
Looker ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1275, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.41


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(6)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis (), Firebringer (), Green Crayons (), Elements ()
Elements
(5)
Cycle Men
(),
Alisae
(),
NorwegianboyEE
(),
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(1)
Looker ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
In post 1301, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.Final


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(7)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (), Isis (), Firebringer (), Green Crayons (), Elements (),
Alisae
()
Elements
(4)
Cycle Men
(),
NorwegianboyEE
(),
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(1)
Looker ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.


Cycle Men
was lynched. He was a
Mafia Goon
.
VC 1.26: Cycle drops from FB and moves to HME


VC 1.27: HME and Isis drop from Norwegian (scum) to Cycle (scum). Both get town points for the move.

Also we see Cycle and Norwegian voting at the same time, as the only two against HME. W E I R D. I could see it as an attempt to significantly distance themselves from a third scum. But. But. It was based on their simultaneously inspired “three person scum” scenario. So I’m not sure.


VC 1.30: Elements moves from FB to Cycle, which places Cycle wagon solidly in the lead. Town points to Elements.


VC 1.31: GC drops from Cycyle to Norwegian, but in my defense I went from one scum to another.

Another thing is that Elements picks up two votes: Cycle (scum) and Ali (town). Flash forward to VC 1.34, and Norwegian (scum) joins to make Elements a competing wagon to Cycle. Suggests Elements isn’t scum, as now Cycle is actually playing so presumably Norwegian is trying to save a buddy.

VC 1.36: Elements comically moves his vote off Cycle (scum), to Ali (town), which makes his wagon tied with Cycle. He then shifts back over several hundred posts later in VC 1.37, only to go back to Ali in VC 1.38.

I say comically, because if he’s town this isn’t a good move just in terms of numbers. If he’s scum? Maybe. No sense in trying to push town to kill a friend on D1 if you can avoid it. So he’s testing the waters on other lynches. Or maybe he’s just town whose befuddled!

I’m really not sold on what to make of this, as for as AI goes for Elements.


VC 1.38 through 1.41, though, I think is very interesting. The competing wagons essentially come down to Elements versus Cycle, with two scum votes on Elements. My reaction is that this would make Elements town.

I mean,
of course
town can wagon two scum on D1, so it’s not impossible that Cycle and Elements are both scum. It happens! But we already did that with Cycle versus Norwegian. Not to mention, we have two scum on the Elements counterwagon, including Norwegian who tried to put momentum there (VC 1.34).


So, with purple being not flipped but I'm feeling pretty good about being town based on D1 VCs (I included myself because I can and you should too), I see D1 ending as:
In post 1301, northsidegal wrote:
Votecount 1.Final


TargetWagon
Cycle Men
(7)
Deimos27 (), humaneatingmonkey (),
Isis
(),
Firebringer
(),
Green Crayons
(),
Elements
(),
Alisae
()
Elements
(4)
Cycle Men
(),
NorwegianboyEE
(),
votato
(),
Albert B. Rampage
()
NorwegianboyEE
(1)
Looker ()
Not Voting
(0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.


Cycle Men
was lynched. He was a
Mafia Goon
.
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #3056 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:32 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

Note I didn't actually reread D1. I just wanted to do a VCA before I skimmed D1.






I meant to say, before I reread D1.
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
humaneatingmonkey
humaneatingmonkey
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
humaneatingmonkey
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11437
Joined: June 7, 2017

Post Post #3057 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:33 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

GC, if we're doing naked VCs, you shouldn't put yourself there as violet if the information doesn't reflect it.
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #3058 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:35 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

Too bad. Do your own VCA if you don't like it.
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
humaneatingmonkey
humaneatingmonkey
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
humaneatingmonkey
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11437
Joined: June 7, 2017

Post Post #3059 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:38 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

No thanks I'll just leech off your work and un-confirm you as necessary
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #3060 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:39 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 874, Cycle Men wrote:
humaneatingmonkey wrote:whos scum in your wagon?
elements and norwee probably
lol okay i'm feeling good about my Elements call
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #3061 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:40 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 3059, humaneatingmonkey wrote:No thanks I'll just leech off your work and un-confirm you as necessary
ez pz
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
Looker
Looker
the
Stenographer
User avatar
User avatar
Looker
the
Stenographer
Stenographer
Posts: 5304
Joined: February 20, 2009
Pronoun: the

Post Post #3062 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 4:40 pm

Post by Looker »

In post 3054, humaneatingmonkey wrote:If I randomly sample 10 of your games and see that there's one scum who has successfully avoided non-LYLO lynches, would you self-hammer?
Mislynches. If you find them, I probably won't have to self-hammer.
User avatar
Firebringer
Firebringer
Trail Blazer
User avatar
User avatar
Firebringer
Trail Blazer
Trail Blazer
Posts: 52591
Joined: June 28, 2015
Location: woofbringer
Contact:

Post Post #3063 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:05 pm

Post by Firebringer »

i am willing to lynch looker. Odds him fliping scum are probably less than 40%.
His reads are going to fuck the town over if this game goes to like final 4 though if he is town.

He isn't doing anything to rectify bad reads either so.
Show
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
User avatar
Firebringer
Firebringer
Trail Blazer
User avatar
User avatar
Firebringer
Trail Blazer
Trail Blazer
Posts: 52591
Joined: June 28, 2015
Location: woofbringer
Contact:

Post Post #3064 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:07 pm

Post by Firebringer »

ohhh look it looks like vote count 1.11 is an all town wagon on Deimos with zero scum.
Wonder why they didn't touch it.
Show
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #3065 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:18 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 1058, humaneatingmonkey wrote:unless it's scum!NorwEE and scum!Cycle. He's more willing to get lynched and make up a reason for an alternative vote (me) than to bus NorwEE
In post 1153, humaneatingmonkey wrote:A counterwagon opens around NorwEE. He doesn't take it.

An argument can be made that he is town because there's no reason. But there is.

Clemency is always at a high risk of a lynch, as town or scum. Scum!Celemency knows that he's not getting away from a lynch, regardless of what the town thinks about him.

With that in mind, Scum!Celemency will make town!NorwEE look better and risk a potential mislynch for his scumteam by switching to his wagon. When he is a strong lynch potential at anytime, why would he help town!NorwEE here?

Scum!Clemency will also prefer to not aid the lynch of scum!NorwEE, who has a better fighting chance than he has.

At least town!Celemency has a reason to pursue a NorwEE lynch. He has no idea here what NorwEE will flip and he'll be game to see where the wagon leads to — bonus points for scumreading the slot in the firstplace.

Instead he doesn't take it.
Pretty on the nose, there, HME.

I'm really not sure what to make of the Cycle-Norwegian-HME mashup from page 36 to 43.

It's just so damned weird that Cycle and Norwegian focus on HME out of the Ali/HME/Isis trio who try to push a Norwegian counterwagon to Cycle's wagon.

I keep vacillating between seeing the Cycle/Norwegian/HME interactions as legit, and completely contrived.

If we take it that Cycle attacked/voted the Ali/HME/Isis trio who press for a Norwegian-wagon to help Norwegian, then Cycle's goal is to help scum (by defending Norwegian-scum). You don't help scum by singling out and attacking yet another scum from that trio (assuming one is there). Like, I have this really big paranoia that Cycle/Norwegian/HME were doing this big scum gambit to get mad at each other, but it doesn't have the greatest of scum benefits for two of them to gang up against one. And then for HME and Cycle to keep going at it for several pages after 43.

I guess the simplest answer is that HME is town, and Cycle/Norwegian ganged up on him to see what would stick. That just feels *too* simple. Bah.
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #3066 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:19 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 3064, Firebringer wrote:ohhh look it looks like vote count 1.11 is an all town wagon on Deimos with zero scum.
Wonder why they didn't touch it.
lolol
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #3067 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:19 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

the lol is because it's a pretty obvious observation that I completely missed.
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
Isis
Isis
she/her, not they
Best in Class
User avatar
User avatar
Isis
she/her, not they
Best in Class
Best in Class
Posts: 11219
Joined: April 6, 2020
Pronoun: she/her, not they
Location: Seattle

Post Post #3068 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:20 pm

Post by Isis »

gc pls sr me
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
User avatar
Isis
Isis
she/her, not they
Best in Class
User avatar
User avatar
Isis
she/her, not they
Best in Class
Best in Class
Posts: 11219
Joined: April 6, 2020
Pronoun: she/her, not they
Location: Seattle

Post Post #3069 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:21 pm

Post by Isis »

i am hassing apple vodkas
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #3070 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:22 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 3060, Green Crayons wrote:
In post 874, Cycle Men wrote:
humaneatingmonkey wrote:whos scum in your wagon?
elements and norwee probably
lol okay i'm feeling good about my Elements call
yuuuuup:
In post 1238, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Element flip will give much more valuable information than Clemency in my opinion. This excessive concern against the initial wagon from Humaneatingmonkey is pretty weird.
In post 1239, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I'd really like to solve Alisae's allignment, and a Elements flip would definitely help me with that.
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #3071 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:23 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 3068, Isis wrote:gc pls sr me
roll scum next time and then vote scummily and I'll see what I can do
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
Isis
Isis
she/her, not they
Best in Class
User avatar
User avatar
Isis
she/her, not they
Best in Class
Best in Class
Posts: 11219
Joined: April 6, 2020
Pronoun: she/her, not they
Location: Seattle

Post Post #3072 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:25 pm

Post by Isis »

u obviously haven't been listening to deimos my scumgame is to tmi bus my partners thats not a scum vca
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #3073 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:26 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

if true, then I believe Deimos should scumread you then
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
Isis
Isis
she/her, not they
Best in Class
User avatar
User avatar
Isis
she/her, not they
Best in Class
Best in Class
Posts: 11219
Joined: April 6, 2020
Pronoun: she/her, not they
Location: Seattle

Post Post #3074 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2020 5:27 pm

Post by Isis »

deimos come scumread me
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
Locked

Return to “Completed Open Games”