SIR Disease Mafia - Game Over!

[Quick]

Honestly, I’m null, but I saw the replace out.

VOTE: ETL

Move on from this day phase. I can’t catch up Day 1. 106 pages. I’ve read like 1.

not a fan of this either

Quick, Mastina, Hoctac, FL is my scum list atm.

Probably all Town tbqh.

[mastina]

1. Creature - meta says scum, can't remember a single useful post
4. 5G Tower - scum tinted hammer, yet another slot with no explicitly town behavior
5. Jake the Wolfie - only on number 5 and this is the 4th slot with no useful posts
6. Aristophanes - fits in the category with Auro where there are some townish things but I'd be hard pressed to remember a stance from him
10. Alchemist21 - another in the Auro/Ari category where occasionally a post will look vaguely town but darned if I can remember them
12. Flavor Leaf - I'm getting a strong "buried in RL stuff" vibe. Lacks any purpose which could mean town given that he tends to actively drive chaos when scum
13. gobbledygook - replaced who? Has he posted?
16. 50 Judge Powers - feels town by meta. I feel confident I'd recognize scum 50

The lurkers need to post

useful stuff

or perish. That means taking stances on reads and backing those stances up with evidence.

Realtalk here by the way.
I know people are like, "policy lynches are bad!!!", but like.
Legitimately.

I feel like we net 2-3 of the original scumteam by adapting the policy of "Lynch All Lurkers".
Yes, we would also hit town with that policy, and a fair number of them, too. (Notably, I agree with the take on FL and I very much want to trust dave's take on Almost50 so if you remove those two, you get the lurker pool of {Creature, 5G, Jake, Aristophanes, Alch, Turkey}, and of those the only one I would defend myself is Alchemist, so in the pool of Creature/5G/Jake/Ari/Turkey I'd expect to hit 2-3 scum.)

But I sincerely feel that a strategic implementation of Lynch All Lurkers, scummiest lurker to least scummy Lurker, would net us the original scum. At least two of them but honestly? Probably just legit all three.

I really DO think that the scumteam this game IS in the lurkers, barring the possibility of one of them being in the outliers (e.g. the likes of Tchill/Saudade being scum).

[mastina]

If scum wanted to mislynch potential power town as defined by reputation alone, who are the top 3 candidates for potential power town?

Since you opened this question to others, figured I'd give an answer:
Nero Cain and Auro easily fit two of the slots for powertown.
FL in the minds of

some

players could be, but in my mind is not and even were he, in

this

game, wouldn't be.
Vecna and Miss Lynch could both have fought for the slot of powertown while here, but because neither is in the game anymore, the third slot has to belong to someone else as neither of their replacements qualify.

So the third powertown would be Turkey (gobbledygook).

Notably, you may note there's a huge difference between all of the other powertown (Nero and Auro still in the game, Vecna and Miss Lynch while they were in the game), and Turkey.

You can see then why Turkey has singlehandedly killed the townread I had on farside as a consequence--Turkey as I know him is indisputably one of the top three powertown in the game. The Turkey I've seen thusfar in this game?

...Isn't that.

[mastina]

mastina is really missing an important key that makes her feel like scum

This is my line for your play.

Yep, mastina is really skeptical

Oh my god, you suck. I retract my townread on EspeciallyALiar

Auro can die

like I pointed out it was the lack of scum motivation with ETL that made her town. VOTE: mastina

Still up for this, Tchill?

Both Creature and Aristophanes are highly likely to be scum here

That wasn't a great page opening...

are people still scum reading mastina?

I dunno, only post count and insane walls are making her look town

2. Auro
4. 5G Tower
6. Aristophanes
10. Alchemist21
12. Flavor Leaf
13. gobbledygook
16. 50 Judge Powers
17. mastina
19. Nero Cain
20. Tchill13
21. Saudade

These all contain some instances of what I mean. Of something being absent from Creature's play this game that'd be present in his towngame.

[mastina]

you know I TRIED to explain this same concept regarding ETL. You trying to use that same logic here to get others to tr you based on meta is what i was trying to do with etl based on percieved personality with ETL. You were having none of that.

Not exactly. Saying I was having none of it implies that I thought the argument of reading someone based on perceived personality had no merit. It's quite the opposite--I thought it had more merit than any other method in the game, but I thought that said personality indicated she'd be scum, not town.

And I stated as much yesterday; I went into why the perceptions of personality for ETL indicated she was more likely to be scum than town. You argued that it made her town, I argued that it made her scum. We were both using the same logic but coming to opposite conclusions using it. Obviously, yours was right and mine was wrong, that goes without saying--but that doesn't mean the logic used isn't solid logic to base a read off of.

[mastina]

Does mastina have BoP?

The funny thing is if you talk to the people who scumread me every single game they scumread me, almost unanimously they say yes I do; in almost every single game that players defend me, almost unanimously, they say no I don't. There are some fringe cases where people scumread me and say "mastina doesn't need to be wrong to be scum, she's just scum here anyway", and there are some fringe cases where people townread me and insist that BoP IS still valid, saying more or less, "yes, mastina is accountable to BoP, but she's still town here", and as is usually the case the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

In the last two years. From 2019 through 2020. I have had an

amazing

string of towngames. In like, what, 30 towngames over those two years? Some number around there, I can probably count on a single hand the number of games where I wasn't proud of my performance in them. That means that in less than six games, in 1-5 of about 30 games, BoP would've been erroneous on me because I sucked, but in the rest, ~25-29 of them, BoP to some extend did apply, where if I was wrong that could've been a scumtell but I

wasn't

wrong.

And yet.

It should go without saying that there's damn good reasons that in 2019 and 2020 I have not been nominated for Paragon of Scumhunters--because while I am

good

at being town, I am, most decidedly, conclusively, definitively, not at

Paragon

-levels of good. I am not a Paragon-level scumhunter who is right disproportionately compared to when I am wrong. Which means, in every game, every single game, I make mistakes. In every single game, every single towngame. I am wrong about

at least

one read, if not more. I don't have ANY perfect towngames where I nailed the entirety of the scumteam and called the entire town, town.

So in every game, even if I was 90% accurate, that inaccuracy is where the faultiness of BoP comes into play. Let's say in a game I was 90% correct, but the 10% I was wrong on was revealed first--if people tried to BoP me in that game, pointing out the 10% I happened to be wrong on, that'd be a disservice to the 90% I was right on.

My actual accuracy though is, of course, not nearly that high. If I had to guess, my reads usually have around a 60-80% accuracy rate. My townplay is much, much, much stronger and better overall in the last two years, but it is by no means perfect. It's

good

, and it's

better

, but it's to the point where instead of being "average at best" in reads, with me having reads on average that were below random in accuracy, it's more in the range of "probably

at least

average, possibly better than average".

I catch scum more often than not, and townread town far more often than not. (My townhunting is, very notably, much better than my scumhunting. I'd consider a single scum in my locktown to be more of a failure on my part than three town in my lockscum, because I expect to be wrong in my scumreads every game to some extent; I expect to be right in my strongest townreads every game with no exceptions.)

But,
1: I am inconsistent; one game I might only catch 1/3 scum and another game I can have all three dead in my sights;
2: I am imperfect even at my best, not having dead-on accuracy;
3: It needs to go in with the understanding that my solid townhunting is better than my scumhunting;
4: It needs to take into account the strength of my stated read. (If I am wrong about a locktown read, then you can probably BoP me--if I am wrong about a nulltown read, then you can fuck off with any accusations of "mastina was wrong about this townread, therefore she must be scum".)

So basically, CAN you BoP me? In very very select circumstances? Yes. There are some things I am disproportionately more likely to be right on than others.
In most circumstances? No, doing so would be a mistake.

[mastina]

we will start with this contradiction to begin with.

Those aren't contradictions; they are augmentations.
I am in fact, unfamiliar with ETL's meta as it is right now--I stated so on multiple occasions and never once stated otherwise.
I stated my understanding and experience of ETL's meta, and how my understanding and experience of ETL's meta made me think this was null-at-best, but probably scum from her.

These do not in any way contradict one another because I made it very clear I was working from my memory of her, while also making it unambiguous that, yes, I fully acknowledged that my memory of her was a flawed metric to judge her by--it just so happened to be the only metric I had available to me.

I only had the past metric at my disposal, and was using that past metric. I never once stated otherwise.

[mastina]

why are you entertaining setup spec from someone you KNOW is scum?

That post was the opposite of entertaining setup spec from ETL? No literally. It was shutting down the setup spec, not entertaining it.

[mastina]

Everything she's accusing ETL of is something anyone can do or achieve as scum.

Exactly my point?

You're arguing that I was calling ETL scum for things only ETL could do, when I made it quite clear that the things ETL was doing would trip my scumdar coming from just about

any

player.

[mastina]

That said, you have never seen me as Scum AFAIK.

Considering that I'm mastin2 and before that Mastin and you used to be LicketyQuickety, I'm pretty sure I have. Between alts, modding, games I was spectating, I don't think it's possible I never saw you as scum, that literally every time I watched you you were town.

[mastina]

ok mastina those are a lot of words but from a quick glance your reasoning for scumreads refer to metatells that im not aware of so ?

As always, my reads are not exclusively meta. My reads are things that I would be scumreading/townreading

any

player for, which happen to then either be significantly strengthened or significantly weakened by meta. In this case, mostly strengthened.

The content from players like Creature and Aristophanes would be scumread regardless of the scummer making them, but meta just so happens to make it so that their content gives them a much higher chance of being scum.

Similarly, the content from players like Auro, Nero, Miss Lynch's slot, Vecna's slot, and the like would be townread regardless of the scummers making them, but meta just so

happens

to support that, yes, that's their townplay rather than their scumplay.

[OkaPoka]

mastina can you elaborate on why you like to elaborate so much

[mastina]

mastina can you elaborate on why you like to elaborate so much

Sure can! It's due to being autistic, and feeling a compulsion to convey the concepts in my brain to perfect clarity. To put that in different words, I explain things as my first language being "concepts", and every time I type something, I am doing my best to 'translate' the concepts in my mind, into English words.

But things get Lost In Translation, because you can never perfectly translate things from one language to another, so some of the nuances, finer points, specifics, and so on and so forth from the original thought as it existed in conceptual form, are lost when I translate it into word form. And this 'corrupted data', so to speak, is something I strive to then try and recover. Sometimes successfully, often times not. Which is where the elaboration comes from.

That, plus on a different note--this is obviously mixed in a little bit with some Narcissism (or a concept close thereto; someone once linked to a concept not called Narcissism but which is a close cousin thereof and at the time they did I actually went "hey, that sounds a lot like what I am like"), in that I love to share details about myself to others, but also:

I believe there is a magic to be had in talking. Just talking to others. Mafia is many many many things, but it is in part a Social Game. Social games require interacting with others, aka, socializing. You socialize by talking. So to socialize...I talk. I believe there is a magic to be had in talking, that allows people who otherwise would have no common ground, to find common ground. Something they share in personality, media they like, careers they have or have had, aspirations they possess, the like. And that the more you talk, the easier it is to find these, and also to find differences that can be discussed amicably.

That balance, between what they find in common and what they have which differs, can with enough talking, spark a magical connection and it allows people to get to know each other better, establish friendships and the like.

Plus, I am inherently a very very very lonely person and talking about myself is in many ways--a desperate attempt to reach out and connect with others, a last-ditch hope effort to connect, to satiate that loneliness and find happiness where previously there was none. Talking about myself is thus one of the ways I try to gain companionship. So I talk and talk and talk and talk.

...Also?

Boredom.

[Jake The Wolfie]

mastina can you elaborate on why you like to elaborate so much

Sure can! It's due to being autistic, and feeling a compulsion to convey the concepts in my brain to perfect clarity. To put that in different words, I explain things as my first language being "concepts", and every time I type something, I am doing my best to 'translate' the concepts in my mind, into English words.

But things get Lost In Translation, because you can never perfectly translate things from one language to another, so some of the nuances, finer points, specifics, and so on and so forth from the original thought as it existed in conceptual form, are lost when I translate it into word form. And this 'corrupted data', so to speak, is something I strive to then try and recover. Sometimes successfully, often times not. Which is where the elaboration comes from.

That, plus on a different note--this is obviously mixed in a little bit with some Narcissism (or a concept close thereto; someone once linked to a concept not called Narcissism but which is a close cousin thereof and at the time they did I actually went "hey, that sounds a lot like what I am like"), in that I love to share details about myself to others, but also:

I believe there is a magic to be had in talking. Just talking to others. Mafia is many many many things, but it is in part a Social Game. Social games require interacting with others, aka, socializing. You socialize by talking. So to socialize...I talk. I believe there is a magic to be had in talking, that allows people who otherwise would have no common ground, to find common ground. Something they share in personality, media they like, careers they have or have had, aspirations they possess, the like. And that the more you talk, the easier it is to find these, and also to find differences that can be discussed amicably.

That balance, between what they find in common and what they have which differs, can with enough talking, spark a magical connection and it allows people to get to know each other better, establish friendships and the like.

Plus, I am inherently a very very very lonely person and talking about myself is in many ways--a desperate attempt to reach out and connect with others, a last-ditch hope effort to connect, to satiate that loneliness and find happiness where previously there was none. Talking about myself is thus one of the ways I try to gain companionship. So I talk and talk and talk and talk.

...Also?

Boredom.

Please elaborate.

[Quick]

More or less where I am rn...

Jake, dave, Auro
mastina, Tchill, farside, Vecna, Voted
Hoctac, Ari, FL, Miss Lynch, Nero
Nhadia
Saudade
Creature
5G

[Quick]

VOTE: Creature

[Quick]

1. Creature - meta says scum, can't remember a single useful post
4. 5G Tower - scum tinted hammer, yet another slot with no explicitly town behavior
5. Jake the Wolfie - only on number 5 and this is the 4th slot with no useful posts
6. Aristophanes - fits in the category with Auro where there are some townish things but I'd be hard pressed to remember a stance from him
10. Alchemist21 - another in the Auro/Ari category where occasionally a post will look vaguely town but darned if I can remember them
12. Flavor Leaf - I'm getting a strong "buried in RL stuff" vibe. Lacks any purpose which could mean town given that he tends to actively drive chaos when scum
13. gobbledygook - replaced who? Has he posted?
16. 50 Judge Powers - feels town by meta. I feel confident I'd recognize scum 50

The lurkers need to post

useful stuff

or perish. That means taking stances on reads and backing those stances up with evidence.

Realtalk here by the way.
I know people are like, "policy lynches are bad!!!", but like.
Legitimately.

I feel like we net 2-3 of the original scumteam by adapting the policy of "Lynch All Lurkers".
Yes, we would also hit town with that policy, and a fair number of them, too. (Notably, I agree with the take on FL and I very much want to trust dave's take on Almost50 so if you remove those two, you get the lurker pool of {Creature, 5G, Jake, Aristophanes, Alch, Turkey}, and of those the only one I would defend myself is Alchemist, so in the pool of Creature/5G/Jake/Ari/Turkey I'd expect to hit 2-3 scum.)

But I sincerely feel that a strategic implementation of Lynch All Lurkers, scummiest lurker to least scummy Lurker, would net us the original scum. At least two of them but honestly? Probably just legit all three.

I really DO think that the scumteam this game IS in the lurkers, barring the possibility of one of them being in the outliers (e.g. the likes of Tchill/Saudade being scum).

You really are brilliant, you know that?

[Auro]

Hey y'all who's in the mood to read another wallpost???

@Tchill

: I'll summarize what your case on Mastina seems to be.
1. An incorrect application of ETL's meta; and BoP.
2. A contradiction between "I can't gauge ETL's meta years later", and "I've seen ETL AtE as either alignment".
3. Exhibiting overconfidence, leading town to believe ETL was playing a good scum game.
4. Assigning blame to ETL if she was town.
5. Entertaining setup spec from a scumread.

And my responses:
1. Incorrect in hindsight, a little legitimate: but damning? I certainly don't think so. With ETL's behavior, I won't be surprised at someone experienced with her also scumreading her this game. ETL went on that weird emotional tangent right after four votes, and it just got a lot worse with time.
2. That's not a contradiction. Meta can change, but that doesn't mean you ignore that a slot did AtE as scum before - the capabilities remain.
3. Yes, I believed it was a good scum move (up to one point) to throw out pre-emptive AtE. I've seen scum do it recently, townread them, and had them go on to win the game. Such extended self-voting AtE plays are objectively pretty bad if town, and can work out well when scum. Besides, is there any special scum motivation in looking as though you have a super confident read on a player you were once familiar with, only for them to flip town, versus being a little more subtle about it?
4. Yes, ETL does deserve some blame. I understand that she felt unimportant and unheard while being attacked, and that led her to behave that way; but that doesn't mean the people pushing her deserve that blame. If Mastina wanted to "avoid responsibility", it's a lot easier to just not push it as strongly (which she did, consistently) and then try to make up excuses later.
5. Why does the source matter? On a side note, I engage fully with people I scumread also - everyone deserves to be engaged on the chance they're town, even if I'm lynching them. I'd only stop if it they acted in bad faith. And if they posted some wrong setup spec like "infected people can infect others" I could very well butt in regardless of my read on them.

None of your reasons feel solid for Mastina!scum, sorry. If you have time, I would invite you to take her up on her word and actually skim a few of her recent scumgames, and give me an evaluation on how they compare. If you find this close to her towngames and farther from her scumgames, that implies she's suddenly changing her scum meta this game - and that would be a little unlikely, yeah? The farther back you go, the stronger this argument gets. This isn't a matter of capabilities, or whether she *could*, instead whether she *would*.

---

I think Nahdia's being disingenuous of her Saudade push. There are many examples of players to whom you don't apply the "normal" scumhunting principles to catch; and I've pointed out that Saudade is one of them. I feel like that should be clear just from looking at his ISO. On re-reading, noticed that I've stated that in both 3121 and 3156, yet, she doubled down on this in 3227 without appearing to take any of that into account. I don't think Nahdia should be the type of player to pursue such surface level plays. She also discarded the entirety of the setup spec discussion which arguably is beneficial in part to town - all this leads me to think she's just not putting much effort into

thinking

about the game. Apart from Saudade there seems to be no strong read in her ISO: feels a little like scum replacing in, picking someone to attack, and just coasting, does it not?

---

Gobbles' absence sucks. His posts while here weren't at all impressive. I'm surprised Mastina's the only one noting this?
Mastina overestimates me :X maybe I should be paranoid of her pocketing me, hmmmmmmmmmmm
Perhaps it's time to call myself a postmodern Mafia player, since I'm generally accepting of almost all playstyles (save ones which completely lack contributions / are emotion-focused / toxic). I love self-meta (and also see no harm in it - the information's there for you to verify - if they're wrong, awesome, you caught them!) and love listening to people talk about themselves.

[Saudade]

mastina would you like to solve some hard math problems with me

[Saudade]

Also lynch Quick

[Auro]

Throw at me hard math problems. Prefer probability questions :3

[Jake The Wolfie]

1. Creature - meta says scum, can't remember a single useful post
4. 5G Tower - scum tinted hammer, yet another slot with no explicitly town behavior
5. Jake the Wolfie - only on number 5 and this is the 4th slot with no useful posts
6. Aristophanes - fits in the category with Auro where there are some townish things but I'd be hard pressed to remember a stance from him
10. Alchemist21 - another in the Auro/Ari category where occasionally a post will look vaguely town but darned if I can remember them
12. Flavor Leaf - I'm getting a strong "buried in RL stuff" vibe. Lacks any purpose which could mean town given that he tends to actively drive chaos when scum
13. gobbledygook - replaced who? Has he posted?
16. 50 Judge Powers - feels town by meta. I feel confident I'd recognize scum 50

The lurkers need to post

useful stuff

or perish. That means taking stances on reads and backing those stances up with evidence.

Realtalk here by the way.
I know people are like, "policy lynches are bad!!!", but like.
Legitimately.

I feel like we net 2-3 of the original scumteam by adapting the policy of "Lynch All Lurkers".
Yes, we would also hit town with that policy, and a fair number of them, too. (Notably, I agree with the take on FL and I very much want to trust dave's take on Almost50 so if you remove those two, you get the lurker pool of {Creature, 5G, Jake, Aristophanes, Alch, Turkey}, and of those the only one I would defend myself is Alchemist, so in the pool of Creature/5G/Jake/Ari/Turkey I'd expect to hit 2-3 scum.)

But I sincerely feel that a strategic implementation of Lynch All Lurkers, scummiest lurker to least scummy Lurker, would net us the original scum. At least two of them but honestly? Probably just legit all three.

I really DO think that the scumteam this game IS in the lurkers, barring the possibility of one of them being in the outliers (e.g. the likes of Tchill/Saudade being scum).

I'm not lurking. Just surprise posting.

[gobbledygook]

Anyone who is scumreading Mastina has their pants on their head. Same for Nero. I was strong townreading Vecna but TSE hasn’t posted like I thought he would post as someone replacing a widely townread slot.

I came across FL meta in another game that I forget that if FL lurks he is more likely scum. I would like to see a wagon between him and Quick if at all possible.

[gobbledygook]

You can see then why Turkey has singlehandedly killed the townread I had on farside as a consequence--Turkey as I know him is indisputably one of the top three powertown in the game. The Turkey I've seen thusfar in this game?

...Isn't that

>_> please don’t make this harder than it has to be

[gobbledygook]

OkaPoka is a damn newb for abandoning me :,(

Oka should I be townreading you? I would like to hydra this game