Open 777: Switch (Town Wins)

[Dunnstral]

Bruh

[Dunnstral]

Unless we Hit Mafia the next two days along with a Vig shot we're walking towards a 1:1:1 scenario which then says which side played better with town being a judge in the end on who played the better game of mafia.

Well it's 8:3:1 right now, not sure why you jumped straight to the game going to 1:1:1

[Dunnstral]

Yeah this game is going to be tough, unfairly so, and for town to win we probably need to bank on at least 1 cross kill between sk and mafia.

Post 13 is wild - does anti-town really make a post like that right away? It looks to be too suspect to be scum, in a way.

[Dunnstral]

@ Elmo, clusterfuck of a beginning.

Post 13 is wild - does anti-town really make a post like that right away? It looks to be too suspect to be scum, in a way.

It reads desperate for attention as well as scummy.
Why strikethrough?

It reads to me like he commented, then midway through his catchup his point was invalidated, and instead of deleting it he crossed it out to try to show his thought process or something

[Dunnstral]

I have not read a single 0verki11 post.

Well it's not like he's putting out paragraphs, you couldn't have looked over his posts?

VOTE: MariaR

---

I like Tanner and Looker, and kind of Elmo, not sure about ndmath (not seeing a reason to vote there), not seeing a reason to vote overkill either

[Dunnstral]

Well it's not like he's putting out paragraphs, you couldn't have looked over his posts?

I could've, I just didn't. Why do you think that's so damning that it's vote worthy? Do you think scum are more likely to just not read posts then town? (I won't even go over the other obvious point but you should be able to figure that out yourself)

'Cause you're not doing anything and people are trying to work with you but you try to turn them down instead of going over a few posts

so we probably have two scum to deal with on top of the SK


if they have a switch for the cop and doctor their abilities are useless

Fake townslip?

Even if it's real, it doesn't preclude them from being serial killer

[Dunnstral]

MariaR (4):

Solon, Dunnstral, Klick,

Tanner

NDMath (3):

Black Ranger,

Knightmare491, Looker

Elmo TeH AzN (1):

Raya36

Solon (1):

NDMath

Looker (1):

Elmo TeH AzN

Emperor flippyNips (1): MariaR

Not Voting (1):

Emperor flippyNips

There's no way all scum are on my wagon that's legit stupid. So, where am I wrong in my reads? Meh, I'll think this over tomorrow I'm tired

I don't agree with your scumreads, I don't have a lot of scumreads but you are one of them, and your posts + my reads make a lot of sense with scum you in mind

[Dunnstral]

What is wrong with Knight's posts?

[Dunnstral]

You say he's fine, but the words that come after it don't sound like he's fine.

I say he’s fine because he’s null. The townreads I want people to explain, plus my expectations for Dunn are higher than others. To be fair, if someone was playing like this that wasn’t Dunn I would probably vote them.

I don't understand. What's the angle?

Normally people tend to scumread or call reads fake if you scumread people on your own wagon because it’s seen as convenient. So I was hoping I would townread the people on my wagon to avoid such a situation where that happens and people use it as an excuse. But as you can see:

Oh look, as soon as there's votes on Maria, suddenly my posts are bad. Sure.

We get stuff like this.

I don't agree with your scumreads, I don't have a lot of scumreads but you are one of them, and your posts + my reads make a lot of sense with scum you in mind

Then you should comment more on who those scumreads are and commit to a read because right now you’re just saying things that you can shift to look better on the gamestate. Right now you’re just using buzzwords. Where as if you said ‘Maria makes sense with x scum’ at the moment you’d have to back that up when I flip town. The fact you’re just shifting around and not explaining isn’t good.

I'm not team hunting though, plus sk wouldn't have a partner anyway. To me you look like not town, figuring out teams isn't something I do before anti town flips

I don't think I'm using buzzwords or "saying stuff to look better".

[Dunnstral]

I'm not team hunting though, plus sk wouldn't have a partner anyway. To me you look like not town, figuring out teams isn't something I do before anti town flips

I don't think I'm using buzzwords or "saying stuff to look better".

Does scum Maria leave NDMath in this color in 204 and refuse to acknowledge it? See my 252.

I don't think that makes her town. That's not a reason I scumread her

[Dunnstral]

Maria feels very calm tonally, is that normal for her as any alignment?
@Anyone who's played with her before

I thought this was some good insight

I don't think Ndmath is likely to be scum either.

What are the chances we can get Maria today?

[Dunnstral]

Maria feels very calm tonally, is that normal for her as any alignment?
@Anyone who's played with her before

I thought this was some good insight

I'm glad you bring this post up though

What is Knightmare's read on Maria? From what I can tell he has totally avoided giving a read on her. She was the top wagon when he made this post. Thinking about it this post feels really removed from the Maria wagon in a way that looks pretty scummy with either Maria-town or Maria-scum (if Maria-town, it reads as trying to justify jumping on later; if Maria-scum, it reads as distancing).

Fair point. I don't feel strongly about the rest of their posts either way, I think NDmath is less likely to be scum than Knightmare, so I'd vote Knightmare just to get a lynch

[Dunnstral]

Maria feels very calm tonally, is that normal for her as any alignment?
@Anyone who's played with her before

I thought this was some good insight

I'm glad you bring this post up though

What is Knightmare's read on Maria? From what I can tell he has totally avoided giving a read on her. She was the top wagon when he made this post. Thinking about it this post feels really removed from the Maria wagon in a way that looks pretty scummy with either Maria-town or Maria-scum (if Maria-town, it reads as trying to justify jumping on later; if Maria-scum, it reads as distancing).

I think it's obvious from my post that I'm TLing Maria because of her tone. "Tone is too calm for someone who's scum and suddenly under pressure with deadline approaching"
Which is why I asked if that is AI for Maria

I didn't pick up on that

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Knightmare491

We have to lynch today, I don't think Ndmath is scum.

[Dunnstral]

[Dunnstral]

Are you claiming vigilante?

[Dunnstral]

Actually, how would you know who mafia killed and who sk killed?

???

[Dunnstral]

It looks to me like those are the mafia and sk kills, in either order (I could also see a vig shooting maria though)

Tanner's slot was empty throughout the whole night and there still a sk kill (probably), which means that Tanner is not the sk

Are you claiming vigilante?

Im making an educated guess based off the information known in the game.

A vig taking a shot would be very reckless none the less and for once at least this game I am trying not to do that.

What information in the game makes you think Maria was shot by the sk?

A vig taking a shot would be very reckless none the less and for once at least this game I am trying not to do that.

Can you explain why you think this because I strongly disagree?

The vig should definitely be shooting.

Also, we need to try to lynch mafia over SK because of crosskilling and because of vote parity, and lynching mafia extends the game. Knightmare is a good candidate for mafia because the vote failed on them at deadline. Speaking of which, can we talk about why/how that happened?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Dunnstral I don't know why you and Raya have been given passes. I get it, I wasn't around, but I feel we could've secured a lynch with the players that were around during deadline.

What do you mean? I voted for Knightmare

If you mean we could have swung the vote to somebody else, explain how we could have done that, and on who, and how I would have known that

Also, you don't think this guy is guilty of what you're accusing me of?

I don't mind voting for Emperor, it's a lurker slot, but I'd rather lynch math.

Your vote reeks looker

[Dunnstral]

I feel there were enough people around yesterday to secure a lynch.

Make a vote count with all the active players from yesterday on a wagon from yesterday that results in a lynch.

Elmo posted 3 minutes before deadline and gave no indication that he was active before that time.

[Dunnstral]

Are you claiming vigilante?

Im making an educated guess based off the information known in the game.

A vig taking a shot would be very reckless none the less and for once at least this game I am trying not to do that.

What information in the game makes you think Maria was shot by the sk?

I still don't understand this, or rather I don't think it makes sense from a town perspective

[Dunnstral]

Elmo posted 3 minutes before deadline and gave no indication that he was active before that time.

I was already on the wagon. And I checked in at work

That wasn't a dig at you, I'm pointing that out at looker who said we could have lynched someone with the active players then voted me.

[Dunnstral]

I don't think there was a good reason for sk to be off wagon yesterday?
So I think sk is probably just between Elmo, Raya, and Dunn.

I voted at deadline to try to prevent a nolynch.

I do think Elmo and Raya are good guesses for SK, for separate reasons (Elmo doesn't look like mafia but is acting weird and himt alking about the SK shooting maria looked like a slip of knowledge, Raya's vote was minus mafia equity but they kind of feel like an outcast)

I agree that we should be lynching for mafia and not SK today. Good candidates are: Knightmare and Looker. I'm not seeing Black Ranger as scummy (they're just null for me), further explanation there would be useful.

I'd be shocked if all of Ranger Looker and Maria(flipped t) were town, though I'd also doubt two scum would actively flake at EOD.

If knightmare is mafia, it's either actively flake or lynch your partner for town cred. With town being in pretty dire straits, It's pretty reasonable to choose the first option.

If knightmare is mafia, he also counts as one of the scum actively flaking at EOD.

[Dunnstral]

You, Klick, chkflip and Raya all posted around deadline.

It's not possible for that combination of players to secure a lynch based on the end votecount. You're wrong:

Knightmare491 (6):

Klick, Elmo TeH AzN, chkflip, NDMath, Dunnstral, Raya36

Emperor flippyNips (2):

Black Ranger, Looker

NDMath (1):

Knightmare491

MariaR (1):

Tanner

Tanner (1):

MariaR

Not Voting (1):

Emperor flippyNips

No one will be lynched today.

Night will be paused pending the two replacements. This pause will not last longer than 48 hours.

If you're arguing we could have done it with Elmo: he didn't pop in until 3 minutes before deadline. There's no way for us to know whether Elmo pops in or if you/Black Ranger pop in, hindsight is 20/20 and all that.

[Dunnstral]

Looker, do you think Knightmare is town?

[Dunnstral]

Also I wasn't "Vigilante fishing", I got confused and thought Elmo was claiming vig because he started talking about sk killing maria, and for a minute I thought that his confidence in saying that meant he had info on night actions, then I realized that even if he were vig he wouldn't know who the sk killed vs who the mafia killed, so actually it looks more like a slip that comes from mafia/sk. But I also don't know if he's just really confused.

[Dunnstral]

I don't understand why when the day started you thought Maria was killed by the serial killer, and Klick was killed by the mafia?

What evidence pointed to that?

[Dunnstral]

It's not possible for that combination of players to secure a lynch based on the end votecount. You're wrong:

You're right. But, I don't know how incriminating a potentially stalled mislynch is. I don't know the benefit of not lynching Knightmare vs genuinely inactive players.

No lynching in that scenario is a plus for Mafia, approximately neutral for SK (In my opinion), and a minus for Town

Even if Knightmare is town, we would be better off if he voted himself at the end of the last day phase, rather than waste a day and then get voted up again anyway.

Now we can't tell if he wasn't lynched because everyone was afk, or because mafia didn't want to lynch one of their own, so they didn't post. Which means we pretty much have to lynch him, now.

To me it looks too easy, particularly for you and Raya.

What looks too easy? I'm not sure what you're accusing us of. I voted Knightmare at deadline to try to avoid a nolynch - it wasn't my choice of a lynch yesterday. I think certain events point towards knightmare being scum (I'm not looking at night kills here), so today I want them dead for reasons other than deadline.

If you're saying other people are giving me a pass - I can't control what other people do, you should call those people out instead, if you have a problem with it.

I'm not sure why you switched your vote from me to Raya, but it's noted - it makes you look less like mafia in my eyes, where Knightmare came in and voted me to try to save himself (he didn't have a problem with me until I started pushing for his lynch + after you and chkflip voted me. Also, not sure what chkflip's deal is.

I think Raya is less likely to be mafia because he voted for Knightmare, especially if Knightmare is mafia.

I'm still processing the advantage vs the disadvantage of scum piling onto a wagon last minute and saying everyone who isn't on it is scum

What would you have done if you were in my position, as town?
I think you're expecting me to have gotten everybody to move their votes to someone else, when at the time a knightmare lynch looked much more attainable and realistic than getting everyone to move to a new wagon.

I think there is probably a scum among the 3 living Maria voters (Tanner, Dunnstral and chkflip) and of those I would lean Tanner. I need to do some ISOs but for now my vote is on Knightmare to try and finish what almost happened D1 and because most of his D1 wagon I lean town on. Plus...I think he would have been more likely to get lynched D1 if he was town.

Town leans are Raya, Black Ranger, NDMath and maybe Dunnstral.
TBD on Looker and chkflip
Scum lean on Knightmare, Tanner and Elmo.

Tanner seemed fine to me. Chkflip is being weird.

Dunn was quite quiet on day 1, today he seems diff. I can't really put my finger on what exactly, but it gives me odd vibes.

I don't think talking more is a real reason that you're scumreading me for

He was scum reading Maria too hmm, maybe they thought she's the SK?

VOTE: Dunn

So are you calling Dunnstral the vig?

Based and not!vigpilled.

Weak argument all around from Knightmare - again, i don't think he believes it, he's voting me because I became a viable alternative to his own lynch, in his eyes.

VOTE: Knightmare491

[Dunnstral]

Unless I did this wrong I don't see how we get to Day 5 right now without a cross kill.

Vigilante is still alive

[Dunnstral]

What a start to the game! I checked Battle Mage's post history and he was completely active during the time he had to confirm his role.

VOTE: havingfitz

Why does that make the slot scum?

[Dunnstral]

Rather than subconsciously scumread that slot without being able to explain why, I thought it best I bring it up for the sake of transparency!

Why were you looking at the post history of a player who never posted in this game, if you couldn't be bothered to look at your own slots iso to see if he claimed vanilla town?

I don't see how what you pointed out for that slot makes them scum, even if true.

[Dunnstral]

So now tell me if this makes sense coming from town.

Yes

[Dunnstral]

I'm not telling that we should pre flip solve.

What's this then:

Why can't the part you called a slip be a thought coming from town?

because as town he would be taking firm stance on the info that we would get from my lynch. Not just saying we need to lynch me anyway (?)
WTF does that mean, are we at the liberty of lynching people (anyway??) without even thinking what info could be gained from it?
It makes sense that he pushes on me now when his pet scum read Maria flipped town.

[Dunnstral]

Except I wasn't scummy to him yesterday, what changed today?

As I explained, the failure to get a lynch on you yesterday, the frantic vote on me to try to get someone other than you lynched, and the fact that you haven't been lynched yet today

Knightmare; why are you so concerned with what I am doing rather than focus on the wagon on you? What is your insight on the voters?

cause you're new.
My wagon is just stupid at this point it's difficult to say who's being apathetic town and voting me just cuz or who's scum. It's probably Dunn and ND tho like I've been saying all along.

Not sure that you ever said it was NDmath. You didn't start saying it was me until I started pushing for your lynch.

Now we can't tell if he wasn't lynched because everyone was afk, or because mafia didn't want to lynch one of their own, so they didn't post. Which means we pretty much have to lynch him, now.

Cool, so you're saying that lynching him will give no info about any other players because it could be either of those things, but now you want to lynch me anyway.

This is the most obvious scum slip I've seen in a while. Conf scum

Lynching you does give info about other players too. Players who didn't hammer you at deadline, and players who tried to start a wagon on me over you.

You keep pointing that I was scumreading Maria and she died - your argument is really weak and it's been pointed out to you that sk can be immune to the mafia nk anyway. It's also been pointed out that my activity rate for day 2 doesn't make me scum. You're voting me because I'm pushing you, and you need someone else to be lynched.

[Dunnstral]

So why are you still voting me Looker? Also, Paragon's hammer doesn't make them town, it makes them more likely to be scum.

Your vote actually makes no sense. Do you think I'm mafia or SK? I think there are very good arguments against me being mafia, but your reason for voting me initially was that I was "being given a pass" implying that you thought I was mafia.

---

I'm like, 80% sure Paragon is mafia. We can lynch them today, or we can fish for the serial killer.

[Dunnstral]

If we lynch mafia today, it's 4:1:1.

If both mafia and sk shoot town that night, it's 2:1:1

Do we want to bet the game on vigilante shot/cross kills over nights 3 and 4?

The problem is, I don't feel confident about lynching SK today if we tried, so it would be risky to go for that IMO.

---

Not seeing Looker as mafia because he switched his vote to Raya while Knightmare and Chkflip were trying to get me lynched over Knightmare. It doesn't look like the scum flip changed his viewpoint at all today, though

[Dunnstral]

Knightmare491 (3):

Elmo TeH AzN, Black Ranger, havingfitz

Dunnstral (3):

Looker, chkflip, Knightmare491

Black Ranger (1):

NDMath

Not Voting (3):

Dunnstral, Tanner, Raya36

With 10 Alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-09 07:33:00)

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Dunnstral.

Why?

Missed ya, fitz!

Why did you vote for Dunnstral

Stop dodging this question: with knightmare flipping scum and you trying to counterwagon me we need an answer as to why you voted me

[Dunnstral]

Paragon:

Comes into the game and asks if his predecessor claimed vanilla townie
Shortly after he says he read Battle Mage's iso to get a read - His priority is weird here
His confidence for Knightmare being scum at the end of last day doesn't seem to come from anywhere

[Dunnstral]

You didn't answer the question.

[Dunnstral]

I did an associations check last overnight

Spoiler:

Associations:

Knight:

-Emperor RVS
-Votes ND
-Pushes ND
-Back and Forth on Elmo
-Ok with voting Emperor
-Voted ND again
-Voted Dunn and made a case



Looker:
-Defended Knightmare from Dunn (Knight was going after Dunn)
-Said things were looking too easy for me and Dunn (The two people going after Knight with NKA)

Alban/Black Ranger:
-Voted Knightmare
-Didn't really have a case until later in the game

Dunnstral:
-Would vote Knight
-Voted Knight to get a lynch
-Case against Knight
-Votes Knight and arguing with knight

HEM/Tanner/paragon:
-Tanner townread on knight
-Maybe "accidentally" hammered his buddy just so he could say "oops, oh well, it'll be scum anyway". That didn't sound genuine at all. I wouldn't be at all surprised. It would be good for distancing and at this point a Knightmare lynch was only being delayed.

Mage/Emperor/Havingfitz/Brassherald:
-Fitz vote and case (sort of) on Knight
-Fitz scumread on Knight

Solon/chkflip:
-Voted Knight
-L-1 vote on Knight
-Called Knight lurky

This is what I got out of it (The ones I didn't mention don't strongly fit in either based on association)
[Town: Dunn, Emperor]
[Scum: Looker, Paragon]

Eh.. Raya groups people into Town/Scum here but it looks like he means Not mafia/Mafia, and he doesn't really consider SK. Wondering if that's more likely to come from SK themself. I don't think Raya is mafia.

[Dunnstral]

It actually makes sense for Dunn as well, ironically enough.

Do you think we can win if we lynch mafia today?

[Dunnstral]

Why would Knightmare interactions make someone less likely to be SK then?

[Dunnstral]

I was fully expecting this btw. I knew my hammer would look like I "accidentally" hammered my scum buddy in an attempt for towncred. Lame play as scum.

Hammer aside, your slot is one of the slots that wasn't voting Knightmare on day 1, and we couldn't secure a lynch. I understand that there was nobody in the slot at the time, but still, it's a process of elimination thing.

I'm saying your reaction to my predecessor VT thing was unnatural for town.

I thought your predecessor VT thing itself was pretty weird, though. Especially when you spent time looking at Black Mage's post history.

Thanks for the big ups btw. I knew I could count on someone with such great posture.

Uh, what

[Dunnstral]

I disagree with lynching brassherald

[Dunnstral]

Why does Paragon's hammer make them scum, but your and Raya's placement on Knightmare's wagon not make you two scum?

Because Paragon hammered after his slot failed to vote on day 1, and after the lynch became inevitable and there was already intent, while Raya and I voted mafia at deadline instead of going missing, while it would be easy for us to let it end in a nolynch (which it did, but not because of us)

[Dunnstral]

I scumread brassherald for ~reasons~

OMGUR is Oh My God, You Rock. OMGUO is Oh My God, You're Okay. Obviously.

Care to elaborate on these ~reasons~?

He can't, it's what the mod told us to stop talking about

[Dunnstral]

I have no idea who the SK is. I'm pretty sure we can get a mafia lynch today.

I have a crazy idea: Mafia and Vigilante both holster tonight

Let me explain why mafia needs to holster:

Lynching mafia brings us to 4:1:1 going into night. Let's assume that SK always shoots. If mafia and sk both shoot town, It's 2:1:1. Town cannot lynch, and has to no lynch and hope for cross kills.

Here's the kicker: If SK is immune to the mafia kill,

mafia can't win by bringing it to 2:1:1

. Town HAS to no lynch, even if it goes to 1:1:1.

I believe that mafia will not make a move that will likely lose them the game, just to screw town over. They need the SK dead, too.

Going into the day 3:1:1 is the only way for town to be able to lynch and potentially catch the SK.

Vigilante should not shoot: it's 50/50 on wether they'll be flipped in the first place: Best case scenario is vig shoots anti town BUT town has to no lynch to 3 alive anyway. And SK has a chance of being vig immune.

Thoughts?

[Dunnstral]

Personally I'm leaning lynch Paragon, I'm still pretty sure he's mafia based on knightmare interactions, and his reads seem weak

Looker is weirding me out by still voting me

[Dunnstral]

Personally I'm leaning lynch Paragon, I'm still pretty sure he's mafia based on knightmare interactions, and his reads seem weak

Looker is weirding me out by still voting me

Are we lynching the SK or not?

Well here's what we can do: We can lynch Mafia, Sk, or Town today. SK lynch is the theoretical best, but likely ends in us lynching town instead, which is the worst (we

probably

lose if we lynch town, just off the top of my head). Mafia lynch is easier to get into imo. That being said, my only current suspect is Paragon, I don't have an idea on who the third one is, except that chkflip is being uncooperative and unhelpful, and tried to take the wagon off of mafia. I'm still not sure if that is his personality or if he's mafia.

I'm not confident in naming an SK right now - I kind of feel like it's Raya still but I'm pretty sure they're not mafia and I don't want to lynch town today. You've been kind of weirding me out, in a scummy but not really aligned with mafia way.

Isn't SK immune to night kills?

To either the mafia nk or the cop and vigilante - chosen in pregame

[Dunnstral]

The increased power of the vigilante with a mafia lynch today. @ 4:1:1 the vigilante only needs to find one townie to become a weighted coin flip to hit scum.

And if vigilante hits scum + sk shoots someone different, it's 3:1, and it's optimal for town to nolynch and wait for 1 more person to die

If vigilante doesn't shoot, it's 3:1:1 (at worst) and town lynches that day

So it's the same amount of lynches in the end, except that the vigilante might not even be able to kill the sk. Vigilante has a pretty good chance of being outright disabled by anti-town anyway, so I wanted to plan around them not doing anything. It's not a huge deal either way, I suppose.

[Dunnstral]

Should be lynching brass, Dunny. You're wrong on me.

I don't agree with you with lynching brass. Who else do you think is scum?

[Dunnstral]

this is the second time Dunnstral's fixated on finding PRs

Not sure what you're talking about, I don't think anything I just said can be taken that way?

[Dunnstral]

If I'm SK I pick mafia immunity every time. 3 brains vs 1.

It's vigilante and cop - it would have been picked before cop died n1, just saying.

[Dunnstral]

this is the second time Dunnstral's fixated on finding PRs

Not sure what you're talking about, I don't think anything I just said can be taken that way?

Looker can you explain this?

[Dunnstral]

@Black Ranger: Why did you leave out Dunnstral's post to Elmo concerning NKs?

Not understanding why you linked to that post here

[Dunnstral]

SK isn't a power role...

[Dunnstral]

I can be convinced Looker as well - I thought he was town for being so stubborn but I'm not sure about the remaining scum

I'm not seeing brassherald as scum at all

[Dunnstral]

I don't think you even have strong reasons for suspecting me?

Yet you've been hung up over me all day, talking about nothing else, not caring about sk, etc

[Dunnstral]

Fitz had towny posts IMO and I don't agree with the reasons for thinking brass is scum

Why do you think that I don't care?

You're calling me scummy for looking for the SK, right?

[Dunnstral]

Dunnstral, you'll vote Looker too, right?

Yes, he should claim whether he is vigilante


These replacements are brutal

[Dunnstral]

I think the scumteam is Dunnstral and brassherald, but I think Dunnstral is the vig switch. I think that's why brassherald is being openly scummy.

Yup. That's why we have to do this.

VOTE: BrassHerald

Paragon, Raya, this is where you need to go today.

Mafia cannot flip the switch and perform a night kill at the same time - this thinking falls flat.

I'm not mafia - I wouldn't be pushing knightmare at the end of day 1 if I were mafia, I'd just disappear so he couldn't be lynched

Galron... I'm not liking what you're doing right now.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Looker

[Dunnstral]

And it would literally be more effective to bus than to no lynch.

I don't agree with that though

[Dunnstral]

I'm not mafia - I wouldn't be pushing knightmare at the end of day 1 if I were mafia, I'd just disappear so he couldn't be lynched

Why not? Wasn't a Knightmare lynch looking set in stone with or without your help? Surely you bus there for the towncred rather than lurk it out.

On day 1. We ended up no lynching, but I moved my vote to knightmare to try to secure a lynch

On day 2, I don't think knightmare would have been lynched if I wasn't pushing him all day

[Dunnstral]

UNVOTE: Looker

Actually, I'm not sure if he fakes not knowing about that

[Dunnstral]

Mafia cannot flip the switch and perform a night kill at the same time - this thinking falls flat.

???

Looker says that I'm aligned with brass and brass is trying to draw attention because I'm the vig switch

I'm saying that it doesn't matter because a single mafia cannot both shoot and flip the switch at the same time, so the distinction is a moot point Also, I pointed out that vig shooting tonight doesn't really help us, as well

[Dunnstral]

Alright, cool, Dunny. Let's lynch brass then.

You're SK or town if those events are true.

I don't scumread brass though

[Dunnstral]

I mean, if my options are lynch somebody I think is town or nolynch again, I think we have better chances of winning off of the nolynch.

And before you guys get up in arms: If we lynch brassherald and he's town, we'll have to nolynch the next day anyway, so really we're just shifting the timing around.

UNVOTE: Looker

Actually, I'm not sure if he fakes not knowing about that

Rethinking myself here. The mafia not being able to activate the switch at the same time as they are making kills may not have even come into play before now, so theoretically he can not know how his own factions abilities work. Or he can be SK.

End of the day, I don't think brassherald is mafia, and sk feels unlikely. I'm going to place my vote for looker and check back in with the thread periodically.

VOTE: Looker

[Dunnstral]

Well do you think brassherald is scum?

[Dunnstral]

Looker (2):

Raya36, brassherald

brassherald (2):

Paragon, Galron

Dunnstral (1):

Looker

Not Voting (2):

Black Ranger, Dunnstral

With 7 Alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-19 14:42:00)

I don't think Raya orbrassherald are mafia. I had good feelings about Black Ranger, too

I probably should have stayed the course on Paragon. Galron's slot has been sketching me out

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Galron

747 in context is pretty convincing to me. I'd guess Paragon as his partner if correct. Looker can be SK or town

[Dunnstral]

What did I lie about?

[Dunnstral]

Paragon didn't show support for knightmare until he was l-1 with intent on him from Elmo

What else would you do as scum than engage a little, lurk it out? That's a bad argument. Obv you repping in itself isn' AI

[Dunnstral]

What, those nightkills. So who is scum? Brass? Looker?

[Dunnstral]

Raya you're sk aren't you.

It's 2:2:1, I think we need to nolynch today. I don't trust lynching

[Dunnstral]

Looker is 110% antitown

[Dunnstral]

Mafia faction is going to want to lynch today because they killed into 2:2:1 and they don't know what the sk is immune to, plus vig is alive

We stick to our guns and no lynch: biggest chance of a town win. Sk might have incentive to no lynch as well, mafia might feel pressured to vote no lynch so they don't get shot at night etc. So we can do this. Honestly town probably loses here but this is our best shot.

Antitown can actually force a lynch through but they're not aligned with each other and have no incentive to do so

[Dunnstral]

Actually, looker is probably the sk. Because he still unvoted me when knightmare was getting run up, which would be a weird play as mafia. Or maybe I'm overthinking that whole interaction

[Dunnstral]

Raya, can you claim your role for me?

[Dunnstral]

I'm VT

Are you mafia Dunn?

Nope -- I'm the vigilante. I did some thinking, I think it's actually optimal for me to claim today -- who's going to shoot at me, at this point? Mafia and SK have to shoot at each other (theoretically...)

I got you to claim first just to see if you'd try to go for a vig claim (and I was/am sussing you)

---

n0 - I holstered -- I don't believe in random shooting with no information, it's possible to hit scum sure, but sk has a possibility of being immune to the vig kill, and a shot on cop or doctor would really swing things against town (as we've seen here)

Result: Both kills were made by anti-town (obviously)

n1 - I shot MariaR. It was either her or Knightmare for the vig kill, maria looked just a little bit scummier because I was pretty sure she was able to hammer if she had wanted to, and I was seeing partner interactions there, and I figured it would be much harder to lynch MariaR than knightmare.
Well... I messed up here, I'm not sure if I would have walked back on my read on Maria later or what - probably not, honestly, after a knightmare scum flip

Result: Only two kills, so either my kill overlapped with one of mafia/sk, or mafia kill hit sk and didn't go through.

n2 - I shot at Paragon - my biggest scumread at the time based on knightmare wagon interactions.

Result: My kill failed due to the switch mechanic.

n3 - I shot at Galron - It was Galron, Looker, or Paragon, OR holster. I decided against holstering, I felt I had to take the risk to pull this back for town since we nolynched again, which wasn't in my plans. I went for Galron because I thought that end of day vote switch was really weird and a ploy to guarantee a nolynch.

Result: Again, only two kills. My kill overlapped or mafia hit sk.

---

Posting related to my claim:

VOTE: Knightmare

Oh Im going to kill spec cause I got nothing better to do at 545 Am.

Maria was killed by the SK for some reason.

Are you claiming vigilante?

Actually, how would you know who mafia killed and who sk killed?

???

My brain turned off here for a moment - obviously I knew I was vigilante, but I didn't understand how Elmo knew that mafia didn't kill MariaR (the person I shot at). I asked him if he was claiming vigilante at the time because my brain was thinking he was somehow possibly claiming my role/I mentally thought 'ok, so he wouldn't be claiming sk openly so'

I suspect that this in turn made anti-town players believe that I was NOT the vigilante - and trust me, if I were vt I'd never give away that I was non-vig, allowing anti-town to home in on that role - I'm very careful about that sort of thing. Anyway, this wasn't my intention, it was an accident, but it seems to have worked out for me -- I'm still alive.

What looks too easy? I'm not sure what you're accusing us of. I voted Knightmare at deadline to try to avoid a nolynch - it wasn't my choice of a lynch yesterday. I think certain events point towards knightmare being scum (I'm not looking at night kills here), so today I want them dead for reasons other than deadline.

This is something I do sometimes as town pr - I didn't shoot at Knightmare, so I wanted to sort of soft that I didn't shoot at Knightmare and fail or something, implying that he would be sk, when that's not what happened - just in case Knightmare wasn't lynched, and I was killed at night.

It looks to me like those are the mafia and sk kills, in either order (I could also see a vig shooting maria though)

Not very subtle, in hindsight.

A vig taking a shot would be very reckless none the less and for once at least this game I am trying not to do that.

Can you explain why you think this because I strongly disagree?

The vig should definitely be shooting.

I definitely needed to be shooting.

Obviously getting some scum would have been nice, but, y'know.

He was scum reading Maria too hmm, maybe they thought she's the SK?

VOTE: Dunn

So are you calling Dunnstral the vig?

Based and not!vigpilled.

Weak argument all around from Knightmare - again, i don't think he believes it, he's voting me because I became a viable alternative to his own lynch, in his eyes.

VOTE: Knightmare491

Very weak argument, and quite possibly rolefishing

I have no idea who the SK is. I'm pretty sure we can get a mafia lynch today.

I have a crazy idea: Mafia and Vigilante both holster tonight

Let me explain why mafia needs to holster:

Lynching mafia brings us to 4:1:1 going into night. Let's assume that SK always shoots. If mafia and sk both shoot town, It's 2:1:1. Town cannot lynch, and has to no lynch and hope for cross kills.

Here's the kicker: If SK is immune to the mafia kill,

mafia can't win by bringing it to 2:1:1

. Town HAS to no lynch, even if it goes to 1:1:1.

I believe that mafia will not make a move that will likely lose them the game, just to screw town over. They need the SK dead, too.

Going into the day 3:1:1 is the only way for town to be able to lynch and potentially catch the SK.

Vigilante should not shoot: it's 50/50 on wether they'll be flipped in the first place: Best case scenario is vig shoots anti town BUT town has to no lynch to 3 alive anyway. And SK has a chance of being vig immune.

Thoughts?

I intended to follow this plan.
I further explained mech discussion in post 624

---

So yeah, that's my claim in its entirety.

The play today: We no-lynch it. I'm going to holster my shot tonight - because if I shoot, we potentially end up with 2 players alive, resulting in, likely, a town loss.

Me not shooting means sk is forced to go for the mafia. Mafia is likewise going to be looking for the sk, very likely. And so, I might still be alive in final 3. If either faction tries to go for me, they do so while gimping themselves, I believe.

It's still a long shot for town winning. Of course, today we nolynch for the following reasons:

-Lynching the serial killer results in a town loss. Likewise, voting the serial killer and having them subsequently claim (I mean, we can't lynch them, after all.) might also result in a town loss, if scum quickhammer
-Scum are not likely to quickhammer someone who they believe to be town. The dynamics are kind of complicated, but basically they're afraid of losing to sk here (they are either immune to the mafia kill or the vig kill). In that same train of thought, I think the way the sk plays this day out will tell us a lot about what the sk is immune to.
-Our only options are lynching mafia, or nolynching. In order to lynch mafia, we need to also be voting with the serial killer. Which is... awkward, but not impossible. SK is probably fine with lynching mafia today, while pretending to be town.

Both kills would probably have been easy mislynches which is interesting

Them both being town blows my mind. I've been looking at this game completely wrong.

[Dunnstral]

Looker and then 2 out of the rest of you 3. I mean, most people alive right now are scum. I'm pretty sure looker isn't the one town compared to everyone else though

[Dunnstral]

???
Did you just claim sk at the end there?

[Dunnstral]

What were the benefits of a massclaim today?

As explained I don't think anti-town players try to nk me over each other, and this narrows things down.

[Dunnstral]

Looker, you realize Raya has to be scum from your point of view?

[Dunnstral]

On mobile, I'm referring to the spoiler and the line before it

[Dunnstral]

p-edit: go on

Think about the # of each role remaining in the game

[Dunnstral]

I'm not trusting any of the placed down votes at this point in the game

Our options are nolynch or risk it with a lynch, but if we're risking it then I'm leading the lynch, not you guys who are mostly scum from my point of view. Yeah Rcenigma is probably scum, but might be sk. Or I could be completely wrong.

Alright, I'll make the call: we can risk it on Looker today; I'm betting that they're mafia specifically and not sk. Sk is probably Raya or RcEnigma, Mafia is probably Looker and either Brass or RcEnigma. Brass and Raya are like, meh, either could be town here and I'm not certain which.

VOTE: Looker

Risky but this is my most confident read at this point in the game and we can take it to 2 town, 1 maf, 1 sk, and see if we can win off of that

[Dunnstral]

MMMMmmm Raya, looker can't be town from your point of view

[Dunnstral]

In that hypothetical, I would assume Dunnstral would be scum with Raya.

You had Raya as town in your last posts

[Dunnstral]

No, I don't trust other people trying to move the vote

[Dunnstral]

That's sketchy

[Dunnstral]

I don't trust that Raya sorry

Too many variables

I agree that the current lynch is risky but I'm sticking to it

[Dunnstral]

Maf

[Dunnstral]

Raya, I don't trust you to direct the lynch - I think you're being mad suspicious right now

[Dunnstral]

Looker - Maf
Raya - Sk or Town
Brass - Maf or Town
RcEnigma - Sk or Maf

[Dunnstral]

And I'm hedging my bets on Looker being Maf

[Dunnstral]

Because if he's sk, town loses the game

[Dunnstral]

He'll be shot by the appropriate anti-town faction, I assure you

[Dunnstral]

Because he's pretty obviously anti-town going into tonight.

The reason I'm not voting him is because I think he might be sk, which he probably is if you're town here.

If you're not town here - and you're being mad suspicious right now - then I don't know what you're planning and I don't want a part in it

[Dunnstral]

Why are you so certain on Looker being maf?

I'm not, but I'm going to stick with it

[Dunnstral]

oof